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mass media etc. Up to the present time there is no final response to the answer - what is the way further ahead.
"Mir cherez yazyki, obrazovanie, kulturu: Rossiya-Kavkaz-Mirovoe soobschestvo", Pyatigorsk, 2010, p. 184-190.
D. Lavrinenko,
political scientist
THE CONFLICTING PROCESSES IN KARACHAYEVO-CHERKESSIA (2008-2010)
The conflict generative situation in the North-Caucasian region is determined by a complex of problems with historic roots and by the new problems emerging in various spheres of life of the regional society. Given the internal dispersion of the North Caucasus, the conflict generative situation in the region and its determining characteristics, these phenomena are different on its territories. Since 2008 and particularly since the end of 2009, the escalation of inter-ethnic tension was growing in Karachayevo-Cherkessia. Political scientists and journalists more often compare the present situation with the situation shaped in the republic for the period of presidential elections in 1999. Nevertheless, in terms of its substance it differs greatly from the situation ten years ago.
After the period of a relative stabilization of ethnic-political processes in Karachayevo-Cherkessia the new escalation of tension for the period of 2008-2010 was the result of the non-constructive reciprocal action of the state authorities and of a number of public organizations with each other and with the republican power. And one of them, namely the most active - "Adyge Khase" of Karachayevo-Cherkessia constantly and directly makes its requirements to the regional and even the federal power. The most acute contradictions are
as follows: a) the demand to recognize "the genocide of Cherkessians" in the course of the Caucasian war; b) the demand of creation of the Cherkessian Autonomous Republic; c) the demands relating to the representation of Cherkessians in the organs of the republican power.
The public organizations apply manipulation of history as a main means for justification of their demands. All interested subjects use it according to their possibilities. Apart from the traditional claims related to the Caucasian war and deportation in the period of the Great Patriotic war they more often return to the Great Patriotic War itself in the unusual context. For instance, the mutual reproaches of Cherkessians and Karachais connected with the heroic emotions of the ethnic reality of the period of the Great Patriotic War were reflected in articles published in "Vestnik Kavkaza" and "Express Pochta". Such publications will hardly promote arranging harmonic relations between ethnic communities in Karachayevo-Cherkessia. The republican office of the republican attorney conducted verification of the published facts, which caused indignation of representatives of public-political publications.
Nevertheless, the procurator's supervision includes only the legal aspect of the issue, and therefore there exists a real opportunity to introduce into mass consciousness the ideological schemes, which divide the regional society by means of formulas without signs of breach of law.
Since the beginning of the last decade the historic factor ceased to play the leading role in the regional conflicting process in the South of Russia. But having gone to the periphery it is actualized depending on its aims set by different ethnic entrepreneurs. It is impossible to stop the process of formation of identities, and therefore the principal task shall be directing this process to the constructive channel. In this connection, one should speak not only about the need of refutation of a
destructive information (mass media is the resource of it) but also about re-animation of the positive historic memory, which is common for all objects of the state national policy of the Russian Federation. It seems that by means of the education system it will be possible to defend the paradigm traditional for Russian political reality and to oppose the trend of manipulation by military history.
At present, mass media more often informs about the rise of ethnic-political tension and development of destructive conflicts. For instance, on 18 February 2010, a mass scuffle of the youth took place in the center of Cherkessk, and it was repeated on 19 February near the building of the state technological academy. The number of their participants made from 300 to 500 people, armed with improvised means (the Cherkessians and Abazins, on the one part, and the Karachais, on the other part, participated in the disturbances). This information was proved by "Regnum", which used information submitted by S. Skripka, the minister of internal affairs for Karachayevo-Cherkessia.
According to "Kavkazski uzel", such events take place rather often. At the same time, the needed measures for searching the instigators of mass disturbances and instituting proceedings against them were not taken. Meanwhile, P. Khasanov, the deputy chairman of the organization of the Karachai people "Tere" asserted that there was no opposition between the Cherkessian and the Karachai youth in the region.
Nevertheless, on 1 March 2010, the working meeting of the collegian of the Public Council at the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the republic was held with the aim of attracting the attention of public circles to the repeated cases of inter-national clashes of groups of the youth in the republic. According to S. Skripka, the similar events were taken place in Cherkessk since October 2009 and that it was necessary
to take rigid measures to prevent a further development of such events with clear nationalist feelings and to prevent its transformation into a mass counteraction. Since the end of 2009, the militia officials prevented four probable gatherings of the youth in Cherkessk and in aul Psyzh, where the situation aggravated since the middle of January 2010. The situation, according to S. Skripka, might imitate the similar scenarios of conflicts in Yandyk, Salsk, Kondopoga, Volsk and Stavropol. As he stressed, it was necessary to stop keep silent about such events and to inform residents of the republic about the significance of the situation and about the threat of the repeated events of 1999.
At present, the discussion on reciprocal action of the authorities and institutions of civil society is going on taking measures to prevent conflicts: a) the information coming in good time from the law enforcement bodies, compliance with the right of journalists to get information; b) discussion of the problem in education institutions, at meetings of residents at the place of living; c) confirmation of the ethic legal subject; d) liquidation of gaps in education of the youth; e) social-economic development of the region.
However, in spite of existing chances for optimization of the present situation, the conflicting process develops rather in accordance to the negative scenario. On 14 March, A. Zhukov, one of the leaders of the Cherkessian youth movement was assassinated, and on 15 March his burial took place. On the same day, his relatives, having returned from the cemetery, initiated an action of protest, which involved about hundred people. The protestors demanded to punish the killers of A. Zhukov. The indignation of the protestors was caused by the official version of the assassination, which differed from the meaning of the protestors, namely - it was a political criminal act.
The attendants of the meeting formulated the demand: the restoration of the autonomous status of the republic and nomination of a person of Russian nationality to the post of its president, as well as compliance with the rotation of cadres. M. Cherkesov, the chairman of the public organization of Cherkessians "Adyge Khase" declared: "We have no other way out of it". This point of view is being disseminated within the Cherkessian community.
T. Zhuzhayev, the chairman of the youth organization "Adyge Khase" said in his interview to "Nezavisimaya gazeta" that he jointly with A. Zhulov not once had to stop mass disturbances with strikes of the Karachai and Cherkessian youth, which often were started as an everyday occurrence and usually acquired a national feature. Before the assassination of A. Zhukov the activists of "Adyge Khase", including T. Zhuzhayev, were repeatedly threatened. Thus, in this way the information context is being formed, which proves existence in the republic of significant inter-ethnic problems primarily in the environment of the youth (the people, who urge towards reduction of the level of conflicts, confront the other people, who get benefits from this conflict).
The Coordinating Council of the leaders of national public organizations was established due to aggravation of inter-ethnic relations. The position of the representatives of the Karachai public organizations remains unclear: all leaders, except the Karachai leaders, of the public organizations joined the Coordinating Council. The leader of public movement "Jamaat" Khachirov was nominated as it representative in the Coordinating Council, but on the following day his candidature was repudiated. Nevertheless, the chairman of the public movement "Rus" of Karachaevo-Cherkessia N. Khokhlachev expressed his intention to come to an agreement with "Jamaat" and to arrange cooperation with this movement. The position of the Karachai public
organizations may be interpreted as an opposition to the general course to harmonization of inter-ethnic relations in the republic, which has a high conflicting potential. The representatives of the Cherkessian public organizations more often see "the restoration of autonomy" as the only way out of this situation.
On 28 April 2010, B. Ebzeyev, the president of Karachayevo-Cherkessia dismissed the government and nominated M. Kemov as the acting chairman of the government. B. Ebzeyev proposed to the parliament of the republic a candidature of the new head of the government before the May festivities. According to unofficial information it was F. Shebzukhov, an advisor to the president (the Cherkessians were interested in this candidature). On 12 May, he was assassinated in Cherkessk. This crime caused a great public resonance in Karachayevo-Cherkessia and in the adjacent regions. B. Ebzeyev called this killing as a political crime. This meaning did not contradict the opinion expressed by mass media and was shared by public opinion.
On 14 May 2010, the public movement "Adyge Khase", including its youth organization, jointly with residents of the republic, held an extraordinary meeting for discussion of the known assassinations, the crimes committed in the republic. The situation was very tense. The idea of "restoration of autonomy" in public consciousness of the Cherkessian people in this context may acquire a special urgent feature, supplemented by the theme of "genocide" of the Cherkessian people. On 21 March 2010, the conference, held in Tbilisi and titled "Hided Nations, Continued Crimes: the Cherkessians and the peoples of the North Caucasus between the past and the present time", adopted the resolution "On Recognition of Genocide of the Cherkessian People in the Russian Empire for the XIX century". The corresponding request was sent to the parliament of Georgia. The international scientific conference was organized by American "Jamestown
Foundation" and the International School of Study of the Caucasus at the Tbilisi State University. N. Tsiklauri, the head of the Georgian parliamentary group of friendship with the peoples of the Caucasus, declared that the parliament of Georgia was ready to start the work relating to recognition of "genocide" against the Cherkessian people. "The group of friendship with the peoples of the Caucasus is ready to promote discussions. With this view, the parliament will arrange meetings with public representatives and representatives of nongovernmental organizations", said he.
At present, "promotion of discussion" is the most efficient means of aggravating the situation, since the initiative of public organizations is rather powerful but is not reflected in the needed realization - the authorities in Russia rarely pay attention to this theme. Thus, the Georgian party, which before August 2008 claimed for the status of "locomotive" for development of inter-national relations in the Caucasus, tries to put this situation under its control and to direct its development to the needed channel.
The Russian authorities prefer to keep silent about this problem. Although from the legal point of view "genocide of the Cherkessians" (Adygs) is not a historic fact, from the political point of view for a long time it is the fact of social-political life of the contemporary society. The discourse practice about recognition of "genocide" makes it possible to develop the paradigm's conflict using the dissatisfaction of the population as a mobilizing factor especially, as at present only one line is being developed. Thus, a further destabilization of the republic in the ethnic-political sphere becomes quite probable. It is necessary to admit existence of the problem and to substantiate impossibility of recognizing "genocide" from the legal point of view and to see the probable damage of such recognition, from the political point of view.
Nevertheless, at present the Cherkessian organizations of Russia do not have a united meaning concerning recognition of "genocide" at the conference, held in Georgia, and on restoration of the autonomy. For instance, "Adyg Khase" of Kabardino-Balkaria declared: "the Adygs are satisfied with their form of existence in contemporary Russia in three self-dependent subjects of legal equality in the RF - Adygeya, Karachayevo-Cherkessia and Kabardino-Balkaria, and there is no question to unite them into one republic". On the contrary, deputy chairman of the Cherkessian Congress of Adygeya Z. Dzeukozhev said: "We are separated. The creation of the SKFO will further divide our peoples. Before taking such decision the federal authorities should ask the local population whether the people want it".
The theme of "genocide" directed against the Cherkessian people in perspective may be applied in connection with the Winter Olympic Games in Sochi in 2014. At present, this theme is being realized within the framework of a moderate-negative scenario: the question is the appeal of the International Cherkessian Association to the President of Russia D. Medvedev, adopted at the meeting in Nalchik on 27 February 2010, with the assertion: "the Organizational Committee of the Olympic Games ignores history and culture of the indigenous population of the Black Sea region - the Cherkessians (Adygs)". A. Khloponin, the political representative of the President of Russia in the NCFD declared that the House of Culture of the Caucasus would be created and that nobody would question the use of the Caucasian themes at the Olympic Games, which only stresses the need to apply the ethnic policy, although the economic sphere is the main direction of activities of the political representative.
In June 2010, the delegates of the Extraordinary Congress of the Cherkessian People, held in the capital of Karachayevo-Cherkessia, adopted the resolution, which was sent to the president of Russia
D. Medvedev, chairman of the government V. Putin, the political president in the North-Caucasian Federal District A. Khloponin with the requirement to restore the Cherkessian autonomy in the Russian Federation with the republican status. The congress adopted the decision providing for creation of the inter-national commission to restore the autonomy. The fact of adoption of this resolution does not change anything: the idea, having existed for a long time and having taken root in political reality of Karachayevo-Cherkessia and in the Caucasus as a whole, has actualized again and has acquired an official form. The president of the Karachayevo-Cherkessian Republic B. Ebzeyevin his interview said that the congress, held on 5 June, confirmed the decisions of the analogous congresses, held in 1994 and in 1995. In words of political observer K. Kazenin, it was easy to foresee the decision of the congress, since the Cherkessian public activists declared that just such decision would be adopted. When "the ball" is on the side of the federal center, all people ask what will answer the federal center or whether it will give its answer at all to this initiative.
Of significance is just the process of this idea realization: the question is the answer of "the center" and the methods of implementation of this idea in the future. As reported "Regnum", citing some sources in "Adyge Khase", "the Cherkessian public organizations will form their further strategy on the basis of the federal center's decision relating to the requests made by the congress". B. Ebzeyev mentioned: "The principal question is, what objectives are being pursued by these people. Peace, consent, mutual understanding, mutual settlement of the issues confronting the united republic, or evil and hatred among the peoples and the split of the republic and the mire to satiate with?! Think about it".
To the author's mind, one should pay special attention to the situation relating to the so called "Cherkessian problem" in the context of the coming Olympic Games. The scenario of "Olympic" conflict development with due account of the fact that the Cherkessian public organizations in Russia and abroad will further support their point of view about "genocide", despite the lack of united meaning on creation of the autonomy or "Great Cherkessia", will be subject to influence of the following factors: a) the geopolitical factor; b) the social-economic factor; c) the political factor.
According to Z. Brzhezinski, the Caucasus is included in the so-called "Eurasian Balkans" - the element of a vast region designed by the author as a zone of instability. Z. Brzhezinski writes that the Eurasian Balkans are of great significance from the point of view of historic ambitions and ambitions of security, at least, of three the closest and mightiest neighbors, exactly, Russia, Turkey and Iran, while China also lets to know about its increasing political interest to the region. In light of recent events and perspectives, it is possible to say that the situation in Abkhazia, which is the situation of conflict with Georgia and has been recognized as an independent state by Russia, is of lesser significance than the risk of emergence of crisis relating to the Olympic Games in 2014, although the latter may be additionally completed by the first one. This risk is significant at the regional (in wide sense) and geopolitical levels in the context of ensuring regional security, social-economic and political development of the South of Russia, the macro-region, which includes the North-Caucasus Federal District.
As far as the political factor is concerned, primarily one should again mention the threatening trend to destabilization of inter-ethnic relations in Karachayevo-Cherkessia in respect of "the Cherkessian-Karachai population", the theme of "genocide against the
Cherkessians", as well as the growing terrorist activities on the whole territory of the North Caucasus Federal District, directed against undermining of the civil-state efforts taken in the sphere of inter-ethnic and inter-confessional relations in the region. Of great significance is the role of economy in life of republican society: the social-economic diversity and polarization of incomes, the lack of equal chances in the professional sphere; these phenomena in the field of education, culture, health care etc. raise the level of social tension and become one of the main conflicting factors in life of the republic.
The aggravation of the regional risks in the North Caucasus as a whole and in Karachayevo-Cherkessia, in particular, may be reduced by the anti-conflicting management, including analysis of the complex of regional problems reflected in ethnic-political conflicts. At present, the regional risks are concentrated in the ethnic-political and ethnic-confessional spheres. It is possible to ensure the sustainable development of the North Caucasus only by means of minimization of these risks. The systematic monitoring of regional problems is the basis of anti-conflicting management. This monitoring is carried out by scientists of the Southern Scientific Center of the RAS, who since 2006 publish the Atlas of the social-political problems, threats and risks in the South of Russia.
The management of risks as an operation state functioning requires determination of their hierarchy and constant precision with due account of dynamics of regional processes. In this connection, of great urgent significance is elaboration of methods of the risks' appraisal. It is necessary to integrate the knowledge of social, economic, political and spiritual life in the region into a united information-analytical block. The creation of scenarios of regional development with due account of all exogenous and endogenous
factors, the creation of the strategy of realization of positive scenarios opens great chances.
"Yug Rossii: Problemy, prognozy, resheniya", R. n./ff., 2010, p. 108-117.
Aleksey Malashenko, doctor of historical sciences WILL THE CAUCASUS STAND THE LAST CHANCE IN 2020?
The attempt to have a look at the North Caucasus (NC) in the future of 10 years ahead confronts a number of difficulties. First, the contradictory, even incompatible trends constantly exist in this part of the Russian Federation (RF); second, it is necessary to take into account the subjective factor, i.e. the activities of individual politicians, who take decisions. The personal factor plaid always a very great, often exclusive, role in the semi-traditional Caucasian society. For any reasons one could hardly expect that any scenario whether optimistic or inertial (which should be regarded as negative) will be able to proceed successfully. The situation in NC is inseparably connected with the situation in RF itself, but the perspectives for the nearest decade are marked by a great uncertainty. Recalling the prognoses of the beginning of the 1990s, one has to say that gloomy suppositions turned out to be nearer to the truth: for this period two wars and some local conflicts took place in NC. On the other side, the most tragic variant - the exit of NC from the RF structure and the total civil war - nevertheless, did not occur. For the period of twenty years ago, the pessimistic prognoses prevailed, and they usually discussed the crisis and the way of its development. In 2010, the power proposed a variant of exit out of the
