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УДК 338.49
АНАЛИЗ ИНДЕКСА РАЗВИТИЯ СОЦИАЛЬНО-ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ
ИНФРАСТРУКТУРЫ В ЦЕНТРАЛЬНЫХ РЕГИОНАХ КИТАЯ THE ANALYSIS OF INDEX OF DEVELOPMENT OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURE IN CENTRAL REGIONS OF CHINA
Сян Сяо Ган / Xian Xiao Gang, Луо Цзинь / Luo Jin, Луо Цзуань / Luo Juan Уханьский текстильный университет (КНР)
В статье проводится статистический анализ за 4 года социально-экономической инфраструктуры трех промышленных провинций Китая: Хубэй, Хунань и Хэнань. В качестве интегрального критерия используется Индекс развития социально-экономической инфраструктуры (ИРСЭИ), информационная база - данные Комитета государственной статистики Китая за 2009-2012 г.г. На основе анализа полученных трендов авторы обсуждают перспективы дальнейшего развития качества жизни населения в регионах.
Ключевые слова: социально-экономическая инфраструктура; валовой региональный продукт, интегральный критерий, метод минимакса.
With the development of the Chinese economy the China GDP increases quickly. The China GDP reached 5876.8 billion of dollars and exceeded Japan in 2010. It is on the second place in the world. The gap between China and other capitalist powers, such as USA and Japan, becomes smaller and smaller. China enhanced investment and construction of the infrastructure in recent years. From such indicators as "the relationship between the teachers and doctors per capita and the per capita housing area", "the relationship between the per capita highway length and the per capita freshwater supply", it is found that the living level is constantly improved around us. All these are hard-won. The power of development of China is reached due to the more than 30 years reforms and opening up. Now Chinese economy is in the key time of the transformation. It is necessary to make further changes in the allocation of resources and the development mode. Therefore, the long-time development trend could be maintained [6, 7, 8]. The maturing economic infrastructure construction could help to complete the economy transformation and to improve the people's living level. So, it is very meaningful to make the research of the IDSEI [1].
1. Basic assumptions and the IDSEI model.
In the article we should firstly make some explanations. According to the Statistical Yearbook of Hubei province, Hunan province and Henan province of the period from 2009-2012 [2, 3, 4], it is assumed as follows.
k : The economically active population, unit: million.
Ik: The index of the economically active population.
p : The regional GDP per capita, unit: Yuan.
Ip: The index of the regional GDP per capita.
h : The per capita housing area, unit: square meter.
Ih: The index of the per capita housing area.
c1: The number of teachers per thousand people, unit: number.
c2: The number of doctors per thousand people, unit: number.
Ic1: The index of the number of teachers per thousand people.
Ic2: The index of the number of doctors per thousand people.
Ic : The index of the education and medical treatment.
The variable indexes of Ik, Ip, Ih and Ic composed the index of the socially demographic factors, which is defined as variable Isoc.
We assume Isoc = 1 (Ik + Ip + Ih + Ic)
4
(1)
where Ic = l (icl + Ic2). (2)
Furthermore, we make more assumptions as follows.
trl: The length of highway per thousand
people, unit: kilometer.
tr2: The length of railway per thousand
people, unit: kilometer.
Itrl: The index of the length of highway per
ten thousand people.
Itr2 : The index of the length of railway per ten thousand people.
Itr : The index of the transportation network.
zl: The amount of exhaust gas emissions of sulfur dioxide per capita, unit: kilogram. z2 : The amount of wastewater discharged per capita, unit: ton.
Izl: The index of the amount of exhaust gas emissions of sulfur dioxide per capita, unit: kilogram.
Iz 2: The index of the amount of wastewater discharged per capita, unit: ton. Iz: The index of the ecological environment.
w : The amount of the per capita water consumption, unit: cubic meter. Iw : The index of the freshwater supply.
The variables of Itr , Iz and Iw composed the index of the industrial factor, which was defined as variable Iter .
We assume Iter = — (Itr + Iz + Iw), (3)
where Itr = l (Itrl + Itr2), (4)
and Iz = l -1 (Izl + Iz2). (5)
The indexes of Isoc and Iter composed the index IDSEI, which was defined as variable IDSEI.
l2
We assume IDSEI = — Isoc + — Iter . (6) 3 3
In the whole, it is considered that industrial index is more important than the socially demographic index. From the following assumptions we will know thatO < IDSEI < l,0 < Isoc < l, 0 < Iter < l.
According to the assumptions above, it is necessary to standardize the data. The min-max method is used to normalize the data. It is assumed as follows.
Ik = IP =
k - к
k - k
max min
lg P - lg Pmin
lg Pmax - lg Pm
(7)
(8)
The value of regional GDP per capita should firstly use logarithmic treatment and then use min-max method.
Ih = Icl = Ic2 = Itrl = Itr 2 Izl = Iz 2 = Iw =
h - h
h - h .
max min
Cl - Clmin ,
Clmax Clmin
: c2 - c2min
c2 - c2
max min
= trl - tr 1 min
tr1max - trlm.n = tr2 - tr2m.n tr2max - tr 2m Zl - Zlmin ,
zlmax zlmin : Z 2 - Z 2 min
z 2 - z 2 ■
max min
w - w„
w - w
max min
(9) (l0) (ll) (l2)
(13)
(14)
(15)
(16)
2. Data and figure.
According to the formulas and assumptions, the data can be processed. The data are as following from the table l to the table 3. Data of the variable h is the urban residents' data because of the format of the Statistical Yearbook [2, 3, 4].
Table 1
Data of the economic variables mentioned above
Year Province k p h c1 c2 tr1 tr 2 z1 z 2 w
2009 Hubei 36.22 22677 32.77 8.66 1.4 32.21 0.60 10.48 43.27 459
2009 Hunan 39.35 20428 30.20 8.44 1.46 27.74 0.54 11.76 37.72 467
2009 Henan 59.49 20597 32.81 9.78 1.40 24.31 0.39 13.59 33.51 232
2010 Hubei 36.45 27906 33.20 8.54 1.62 33.39 0.49 10.24 43.84 473
2010 Hunan 39.83 24719 31.20 8.15 1.47 32.16 0.52 11.30 37.82 495
2010 Henan 60.42 24446 33.30 9.40 1.65 23.48 0.40 12.83 34.37 222
2011 Hubei 36.72 34197 35.50 8.53 1.67 34.51 0.54 10.80 47.54 488
2011 Hunan 40.05 29880 39.69 8.13 1.61 32.54 0.52 9.61 39.10 495
2011 Henan 61.98 28661 34.10 9.50 1.66 23.60 0.40 13.07 36.13 237
2012 Hubei 36.87 38572 35.79 8.25 1.77 35.38 0.56 10.10 47.07 480
2012 Hunan 40.19 33480 40.22 8.01 1.76 32.60 0.53 8.98 42.35 495
2012 Henan 62.88 31499 34.7 9.52 1.78 23.68 0.46 12.10 38.29 254
With the use of (7)-(16) formulas the data in the table 1 can be processed, and we can get the table 2.
Data of the index of the
With the use (1)-(6) formulas the data in the table 2 can be processed, and we can get the table 3.
Table 2
mic variables mentioned above
Year Province Ik Ip Ih Ic1 Ic2 Itr1 Itr 2 Iz1 Iz 2 Iw
2009 Hubei 0.00 0.16 0.26 0.37 0.00 0.72 1.00 0.33 0.70 0.87
2009 Hunan 0.12 1.00 0.00 0.24 0.16 0.36 0.69 0.60 0.30 0.90
2009 Henan 0.87 0.01 0.26 1.00 0.00 0.07 0.01 1.00 0.00 0.04
2010 Hubei 0.01 0.49 0.30 0.30 0.58 0.83 0.48 0.27 0.74 0.92
2010 Hunan 0.14 0.30 0.10 0.08 0.18 0.73 0.62 0.50 0.31 1.00
2010 Henan 0.91 0.28 0.31 0.79 0.66 0.00 0.07 0.83 0.06 0.00
2011 Hubei 0.02 0.81 0.53 0.29 0.71 0.93 0.72 0.39 1.00 0.97
2011 Hunan 0.14 0.60 0.95 0.07 0.55 0.76 0.61 0.14 0.40 1.00
2011 Henan 0.97 0.53 0.39 0.84 0.68 0.01 0.05 0.89 0.19 0.05
2012 Hubei 0.02 1.00 0.56 0.14 0.97 1.00 0.82 0.24 0.97 0.95
2012 Hunan 0.15 0.78 1.00 0.00 0.95 0.77 0.68 0.00 0.63 1.00
2012 Henan 1.00 0.68 0.45 0.85 1.00 0.02 0.32 0.68 0.34 0.12
Table 3
Data of the IDSEI
Year Province Isoc Iter IDSEI
1 2 3 4 5
2009 Hubei 0.15 0.74 0.54
2009 Hunan 0.08 0.66 0.46
2009 Henan 0.41 0.19 0.26
2010 Hubei 0.31 0.69 0.56
1 2 3 4 5
2010 Hunan 0.17 0.76 0.56
2010 Henan 0.56 0.20 0.32
2011 Hubei 0.47 0.70 0.62
2011 Hunan 0.50 0.81 0.70
2011 Henan 0.66 0.18 0.34
2012 Hubei 0.53 0.75 0.68
2012 Hunan 0.60 0.80 0.73
2012 Henan 0.76 0.26 0.43
With the use of SPSS software the data of Isoc, Iter and IDSEI can be transformed to the figure l to figure 3 as follows.
— Isocof Henan Isocof Hubei IsocofHunan
2009 2010 2011
2012
year
Figure 1: figure of the Isoc
Г5
>
tterof Henan tterof Hubei tterof Hunan
п-1-1-Г
2009 2010 2011 2012
year
Figure 2: figure of the Iter
year
Figure 3: figure of the IDSEI
3. Data and figure analysis.
First of all, if we will make the simple longitudinal comparison, according to the data and the figures presented above, we can find that the Isoc, Iter and IDSEI factors have the upward trend in the whole in spite of the differences between them in the period from 2009 to 20l2. The minimum
IDSEI in 2009 is 0.26, and the maximum IDSEI in 20l2 is 0.73. It means that in central regions of China the social and demographic factors and industrial factors are positive and can lead to a better achievement.
Secondly, if we will make the simple horizontal comparison, we can get some
conclusion. For the Isoc figure 1 tells us that Henan province is better than Hubei and Hunan provinces, and the difference between Hubei province and the Hunan province is not big. For the Iter figure 2 is contrary to the figure 1. Iter of the Henan is the worst and the other two provinces are very similar. For the IDSEI Hunan province is the best and Henan province is the worst and the gap between Henan province and the other two provinces is big. The IDSEI of Henan in 2012 is only 0.43, which is less than 0.68 of Hubei and 0.73 of Hunan.
4. Conclusions.
According to the analysis given above the article can get some conclusions. In recent 4 years the index of development of social and economic infrastructure (IDSEI) of central regions of China is positive in the whole, that is to say the economy will continue to increase in the following years. But there is a gap between three provinces, especially Henan and the other two provinces.
It is expected that there is a further research about the whole china area.
REFERENCES
1. Ilchenko A., Ma Jun. Integrated Estimation of the Level of Development of the Social and Economic Infrastructure of Region [J]. Modern High Technologies. Regional Application. 2012. Num. 4. P.p. 37-42.
2. Henan Bureau of Statistic. Henan Statistical Yearbook [M].Beijing: China Statistic Press, 2009-2013.
3. Hubei Bureau of Statistic. Hubei Statistical Yearbook [M].Beijing: China Statistic Press, 2009-2013.
4. Hunan Bureau of Statistic. Hunan Statistical Yearbook [M].Beijing: China Statistic Press, 2009-2013.
5. Yue Wei, Li Gen Sheng. Literature Review on the Relationship Between Infrastructure Investment and Economic Growth [J]. Journal of the Party School of CPC Jinan Municipal Committee. 2010. - (1).
6. Zhang Wen Tong. SPSS Statistical Classification Advanced Tutorial [M]. Beijing: Higher Education Press, 2004.
7. Zong JiaFeng,Li Jing. An Empirical Analysis of Infrastructure Development and Economic Growth of China [J]. Statistical Research. 2006. - (7).
8. Zhang Guang Nan, Zhou Hua Xian, Chen Guang Han. The Optimal Infrastructure Investment Scale and Oder: Some Empirical Evidence from Panel Data in China [J]. Economic Review. 2011. - (4).
Рукопись поступила в редакцию 02.07.2014.
THE ANALYSIS OF INDEX OF DEVELOPMENT OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURE
IN CENTRAL REGIONS OF CHINA
Xiang Xiao Gang, Luo Jin, Luo Juan
Using the recent 4 years statistical data of Hubei province, Hunan province and Henan province of the central region of China, the paper analyses the index of development of social and economic infrastructure (IDSEI) of central region of china. The paper makes the conclusion that the IDSEI of Hunan province is the best in the central region, the IDSEI of Hubei province is in the second place and the IDSEI of Henan province is the worst. It also finds that the trend of the IDSEI of central region of china is upward and the economy will continue to increase in the following years.
Key words: IDSEI, SPSS, GDP, Min-max method.
