CC BY
18
Выпуск 1 (45) Том - 2021
Псковский регионологический журнал. 2013-2021
ISSN 2219--7931 URL - http://prj.pskgu.ru Все права защищены Выпуск 1 (45) Том . 2021
Territorial features of demographic development in Poland under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic
Мартынов Василий Львович
Herzen Russian State Pedagogical University Russian Federation, Sankt Petersburg
Сазонова Ирина Евгеньевна
Herzen Russian State Pedagogical University Russian Federation, St.Petersburg
Аннотация
The relevance of the article is determined by the fact that the COVID-19 pandemic has had an impact on all areas of human activity, but its territorial differences are not sufficiently studied. The aim of the study is to identify these differences in Poland. The scientific novelty lies in the identification of the main directions of transformation of the territorial structure of the population of Poland in 2015-2020. The research methodology is a combination of statistical and analytical methods. The practical significance of the study is determined by the fact that its results can be useful in analyzing and predicting demographic processes both in Poland and in other countries, including Russia. The main conclusion is to identify the relationship between the increase in the death rate during the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic and geographical location of the territory.
Ключевые слова: Poland, pandemic, COVID-19, demography, voivodeships, population, mortality, economic and geographical location
Дата публикации: 19.05.2021
Ссылка для цитирования:
Мартынов В. Л. , Сазонова И. Е. Territorial features of demographic development in Poland under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic // Псковский регионологический журнал. - 2021. -Выпуск 1 (45) C. 37-45 [Электронный ресурс].
URL: https://prj.pskgu.ru/s221979310013636-2-1/ (дата обращения: 10.11.2021). DOI: 10.37490/S221979310013636-2
1 Introduction. 2020 in the "developed" part of the world passed under the "sign" of the
COVID-19 pandemic. Both the pandemic itself and the measures aimed at overcoming it have had a significant impact on both the development of society and the life of every person. The final results of the impact of this pandemic can only be summed up when it finally ends. But some of the consequences can be assessed already now, when 2020 has already ended.
2 The purpose of the article is to identify the spatial characteristics of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the demographic development of Poland and the factors that determine it.
3 The state of knowledge of the problem. The problems associated with the spread of COVID-19 in different countries of the world have already been repeatedly considered in the scientific literature (see, e. g., [8]). However, not all the facts regarding the pandemic and its consequences turned out to be reliable, which was also the subject of scientific publications (see, e. g., [5]).
4 In the national scientific literature, the problems of the impact of the pandemic on globalization were considered [2], attempts were made to determine the contours of the world that will form after the pandemic [3], and the impact of the pandemic on the Russian economy was assessed [1].
5 In Poland during 2020 and early 2021. a significant number of scientific articles have been published on the impact of the pandemic on various aspects of the life of Polish society. For example, the impact of the pandemic and fear of it on the "mental state" of the inhabitants of Poland [7], the peculiarities of the impact of the pandemic on the psychological state of Poles [9], the impact of the pandemic on the transport mobility of the Polish population [10], religiosity [4] and even for the production of steel in Poland [6]. However, research on changes in the demographic situation in various states, including Poland, and at different spatial levels, under the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic, has not yet been carried out enough.
6 Research results. Poland was one of those states where the COVID-19 pandemic was taken as seriously as possible. The Polish government adopted a number of prohibitive measures, which were evaluated in different ways by the population of Poland. By the fall of 2020, society's fatigue from various restrictions, including "COVID" ones, resulted in numerous demonstrations and manifestations, the formal reason for which was the de facto ban on abortion, adopted by the Supreme Court of the Republic of Poland. This ban was quickly lifted, but this did not reduce the intensity of passions in society, since the main reason for the protest was, as can be assumed, not at all in abortion, but in the numerous restrictive measures associated with the pandemic.
7 The first thing to consider when examining the impact of a pandemic is demographic indicators. The first indicator that makes sense to consider is the change in population by voivodeship for 2020 and the years preceding it in order to identify how strong the impact of the pandemic was on the population in different parts of Poland. For greater reliability, information should be analyzed over several years so that it is possible to understand which trends are the cause of the pandemic, and which are "natural" causes. So, for example, it is obvious that for all countries affected by the "baby boom" after World War II, within the forecasted future, an increase in mortality will be found, and sometimes quite sharp - as sharp as the increase in the birth rate in the first post-war years. Information on changes in the population by voivodeship is given in Table 1.
8 Table 1 Number of population by voivodeships in Poland in 2015 and 2020*
Voivodeships 2015 2020
1 2 1 2
Poland 38437.2 100 38354.2 99.93
Warmian-Mazusurian 1439.7 100 1420.5 99.85
Greater Poland 3475.3 100 3500.4 100.04
West Pomeranian 1710.5 100 1693.2 99.82
Kuyavian-Pomeranian 2086.2 100 2069.3 99.85
Lodz 2493.6 100 2448.7 99.75
Lublin 2139.3 100 2103.3 99.76
Lubusz 1018.1 100 1010.2 99.86
Masowian 5349.1 100 5428.0 100.09
Lesser Poland 3372.6 100 3413.9 100.09
Lower Silesian 2904.2 100 2898.5 99.94
Opole 996.0 100 980.7 99.80
Podkarpackie 2127.7 100 2125.9 99.94
Podlaskie 1188.8 100 1176.6 99.85
Pomeranian 2307.7 100 2346.7 100.12
Silesian 4570.8 100 4508.1 99.79
Swi^tokrzyskie 1257.1 100 1230.0 99.68
*For each voivodeship: 1 is thsd. people, 2 is a percentage to the previous year. Data in 2015 is on December 31st, in 2020 r. is on June 30th (compiled and calculated according to [*]).
9 There are no dramatic changes in the population of both Poland and its voivodeships. Where the population was declining earlier, it continued to decline. Where it grew, it continues to grow. The slowdown in population growth rates for demographically prosperous voivodships (Masovian, Greater Poland, Pomeranian) can be associated rather with the forced decrease in the migration activity of the Polish population caused by quarantine restrictions, rather than with the direct consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.
10 However, it seems quite obvious that the main factor influencing the change in the population of Poland's voivodeships is their economic and geographical position (EGP). The most prosperous in terms of demographics is the capital's Masowian Voivodeship. The Pomeranian Voivodeship with the center in Gdansk, the Lesser Poland Voivodeship with the center in Krakow and the Greater Poland Voivodeship with the center in Poznan, are slightly inferior to it. The economic-geographical profitability of these voivodeships is determined by their centers. Voivodeships with less favorable EGL are characterized by generally negative trends in population size. This applies, for example, to the Lodz Voivodeship with its center in the city of Lodz, the SwiQtokrzyskie Voivodeship with the center in the city of Kielce, the Lower Silesian Voivodeship with the center in Wroclaw, and other voivodeships.
11 The direct impact of the pandemic on the demographic development of Poland is well traced in the mortality statistics. The General Statistical Office of Poland (Glowny Urz^d Statystyczny) in January 2021 published data on the weekly mortality of the population by regions of Poland at NUTS 1-3 levels for 2015-2020, and this table is constantly updated with new data and currently it reflects information already and for 2021 (Table 2).
12 Table 2 Mortality in Poland in 2015-2020* 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 121212121212 10.3 395 10.1 388 10.5 403 10.8 414 10.7 410 12.6 484
*For each year: 1 is a crude death rate, %o, 2 is a number of deaths, thsd. people (2020 is calculated from weekly mortality data, source: [2]).
13 Mortality in Poland has been steadily increasing over the past five years, albeit with fluctuations over the years. However, according to the available preliminary data, 2020 gives a sharp increase in mortality, which increases by 74 thousand people. in absolute terms and 2 ppm in relative terms. It should be borne in mind that mortality in 2020 was calculated according to the weekly mortality figures published by the General Statistical Office of Poland, indicating that, due to the methodological peculiarities of calculating weekly indicators, they are not summarized either by month or by year. The final data will most likely be slightly different, and it is difficult to guess in which direction, as evidenced by a comparison of the "weekly" and final data for the other surveyed years. So, summing up the weekly mortality rates for 2015 gives the total number of deaths about 402 thousand people. (final result - 395 thousand people), for 2016 the indicators are almost the same (387 thousand people by week, 388 thousand people - the final result), for 2017 -the same (403 thousand people), for 2018 - according to weekly indicators, the number of deaths amounted to 411 thousand people, according to the final 414 thousand people, for 2019 counting by week gives the total number of deaths at 408 thousand people, the final total is 410 thousand
people.
14 However, the mortality rate in 2020 was still significantly higher than in 2019. But the mortality rate across the voivodeships of Poland changed in different ways. Let's compare these indicators for 2015 and 2020. according to the weekly registration of deaths by voivodeship, which in the case of Poland are counted as statistical regions of the European Union at the NUTS-2 level (Table 3).
15 Table 3 Mortality rates by voivodeship in Poland in 2025 and 2020*
Voivodeship 2015 2020
1 2 3 1 2 3
Poland 401852 100 100 484021 120.45 100
Warmian-Mazusurian 14106 100 3.51 17020 120.66 3.52
Greater Poland 33698 100 8.39 40626 120.56 8.39
West Pomeranian 17577 100 4.37 21314 121.26 4.40
Kuyavian-Pomeranian 20887 100 5.20 25874 123.88 5.35
Lodz 31675 100 7.88 36365 114.81 7.51
Lublin 23222 100 5.78 27635 119.00 5.71
Lubusz 10312 100 2.57 12823 124.35 2.65
Masowian 56004 100 13.94 68530 122.36 14.16
Lesser Poland 31911 100 7.94 39291 123.13 8.12
Lower Silesian 32042 100 7.97 38093 118.88 7.87
Opole 10660 100 2.65 12893 120.95 2.66
Podkarpackie 19754 100 4.92 24464 123.84 5.05
Podlaskie 12494 100 3.11 14828 118.68 3.06
Pomeranian 21437 100 5.33 26062 121.57 5.38
Silesian 51433 100 12.80 60714 118.04 12.54
Swi^tokrzyskie 14640 100 3.64 17489 119.46 3.61
* For each voivodeship: 1 is the total number of deaths, people, 2 is the change in the number of deaths in 2020 compared to 2015,%, 3 is the share of the voivodeship in the total number of deaths in Poland (calculated by: [3]).
16 Voivodeships of Poland in terms of mortality growth rates for 2015-2020 can be divided into three groups. The first group is characterized by the growth rate of mortality above the average for Poland. These include the voivodeships, where the growth in the mortality rate exceeded 21 % (the average growth in Poland is 20.45 %, which can be rounded up to 20.5 %). In the voivodships in the second group, the mortality growth rate was approximately the same as the average (from 20 to 21 %). The third group - voivodeships, where the mortality rate was lower than the average for Poland (less than 20 %).
17 The first group includes Kuyavian-Pomeranian, Lubusz, Lesser Poland, Masowian, Podkarpackie, Pomeranian and West Pomeranian. Voivodeships with higher mortality rates than Poland as a whole are divided into three territorial groups - northern, central and southern. The northern group includes all three "Pomor" voivodeships - Pomeranian, West Pomeranian and Kuyavian-Pomeranian (although the latter has the word "Pomeranian" in its name, it has no access to the sea). The central group is the Masowian Voivodeship, within which Warsaw is located, and the Lubusz Voivodeship, centered in the city of Zielona Gora, located on the western border of Poland. The southeastern group includes the Lesser Poland Voivodeship with its center in Krakow and the Pokarpackie Voivodeship. The same voivodeships are characterized by an increase in their share in the total number of deaths in Poland. So, for example, the share of the Masowian Voivodeship in the total number of deaths increased from 13.94% in 2015 to 14.16 % in 2020, while the share of the Masowian Voivodeship in the population of Poland in 2015 was 13.92 %, and in 2020 - 14.15 %.
18 Voivodeships of the second group (mortality growth from 20 to 21 %, average for Poland): Opole, Greater Poland and Warmian-Mazusurian. The Greater Poland Voivodeship with its center in Poznan is located between two voivodeships with a high mortality rate, Masowian and Lubusz, and
the Warmian-Mazusurian borders at once with three voivodeships, where the increase in the mortality rate is above the average for Poland - Masowean, Kuyavian-Pomeranian and Pomeranian.
19 Voivodeships with a lower than the average for Poland, increase in mortality (less than 20 %) are Lower Silesian, Lublin, Lodz, Opole, Podlaskie, Silesian, SwiQtokrzyskie. These voivodeships form a latitudinal territorial massif stretching from the eastern to the western border of Poland.
20 A more detailed analysis of the increase in mortality in Poland under the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic can be carried out at a territorial level lower than the voivodeship - NUTS-3 (cities and groups of counties) [4]. The statistics allow us to do this, but such an analysis is hardly possible within the framework of a journal article due to the limited volume.
21 However, even the information on the voivodeships allows us to come to some conclusions that are of certain importance not only for Poland, but also for other states affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, including Russia.
22 The key factor that determined the increase in mortality in 2015-2020, and especially under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, was the economic and geographical location of the territory, i.e. the same factor that determines the rate of population growth. At the same time, the largest increase in mortality in 2020 falls on the voivodeships of Poland, which have a better economic and geographical position and are characterized, accordingly, by more favorable trends in demographic development. The fact that the country's borders have been closed for passenger traffic since March 2020 does not matter in this case. The Masowian Voivodeship is the capital of Warsaw with the country's largest airport. The center of the Lesser Poland Voivodeship is Krakow, where a large airport is also located, however, it is used mainly by low-cost airlines. The centers of the Pomeranian and West Pomeranian Voivodeships are the seaports of Gdansk and Szczecin, respectively. These ports are also used for passenger ferry services with the Scandinavian countries, mainly Sweden, and Germany. In addition, in the Szczecin region there are land border crossings through which communication between Poland and Germany is carried out. But the most powerful land flow of goods and passengers passes through the Lubusz Voivodeship with its center in Zelena Gora, where the largest Polish-German border crossing Slubice - Frankfurt an der Oder is located. The main flow of goods and passengers between Poland and Ukraine passes through the Podkarpackie Voivodeship.
23 Accordingly, the worse the economic and geographical position of a particular voivodeship, the less the increase in mortality that occurred during the pandemic. The smallest growth is characteristic of the "deep" (by Polish standards) old industrial and economically degrading Lodz Voivodeship. Social and economic development trends similar to those of Lodz Voivodeship are characteristic of two voivodeships in the Upper Oder basin - Silesian and Lower Silesian. They both have access to the external borders of Poland - the Silesian Voivodeship borders on the Czech Republic, and the Lower Silesian - on both the Czech Republic and Germany. However, there are no significant cross-border cargo flows here, and passenger flows are mainly local in nature.
24 Voivodeships bordering Russia (Warmian-Mazusurian) and Belarus (Podlaskie and Lublin) are characterized by an average increase in mortality rates during the COVID-19 pandemic, which can be associated with lower levels than in Warsaw, Pomorie or on the western border of Poland, contact. It is quite possible that if the pandemic had happened twenty years ago, when the "shuttle trade" flourished on the eastern borders of Poland, the territorial characteristics of mortality under the influence of the pandemic would have been completely different, and this impact would have been greatest on the eastern border. In this case, the curtailment of this trade, and in general economic interaction with Russia and Belarus (for example, the cessation of small border traffic between the Kaliningrad region of Russia and the northeastern voivodeships of Poland) played, strange as it may seem, a positive role, somewhat reducing the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
25 Conclusions. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 did not fundamentally change the trends in the demographic development of Poland, but these changes did take place, and they manifested
themselves primarily in an increase in mortality. At the same time, mortality increased most significantly in the voivodeships that have the most favorable economic and geographical position and are characterized by generally favorable trends in demographic development, including the capital's Masowian Voivodeship. In voivodeships, the economic and geographical position of which is less favorable, where the population has been declining in recent years, mortality in 2020 has grown less. Since the demographic development of the more demographically prosperous voivodeships was determined mainly by the mechanical influx of the population from the less prosperous voivodeships, the latter should be characterized by an older age structure of the population. However, it is assumed that it is the elderly population that is more susceptible to the COVID-19 virus. In this case, there is simply no explanation for the predominant increase in mortality in the voivodeships, which "attract" the economically active, therefore, not too "aged" population from other regions of Poland. Apparently, this problem requires deeper comprehensive research, and not only on the example of Poland.
Примечания:
1. Baza demografía. Wyniki badan biezqcych. URL:>>>> (date of the application February 1st, 2020).
2. Zgony wedlug tygodni. URL: https://stat.gov.pl/obszary-tematyczne/ludnosc/ludnosc/zgony-wedlug-tygodni (date of application February 1st, 2021).
3. Zgony wedlug tygodni. URL: https://stat.gov.pl/obszary-tematyczne/ludnosc/ludnosc/zgony-wedlug-tygodni.39.2.html. (date of application February 1st, 2021).
4. Klasyfikacja NUTS w Polsce. URL: http s:// stat. gov.pl/statystyka-re gionalna/j edno stki-terytorialne/klasyfikacj a-nuts/klasyfikacja-nuts-w-polsce/ (date of application February 1st, 2021).
Библиография:
1. Kalyakina I. M., Avanesyan E. A., Sajfullin A. S. (2020), Impact of Covid-19 on the Russian economy, Moskovskij ekonomicheskij zhurnal, no. 6, pp. 234-240. (In Russ.). DOI 10.24411/2413-046X-2020-10429.
2. Maksimova E. V., Morozov V. V. (2020), COVID-19 and globalization, Innovacii i investicii, no 5, pp. 86-89. (In Russ.).
3. Nikonov V. A. (2020), The world after COVID-19, Gosudarstvennoe upravlenie. Elektronnyj vestnik. No 82. C. 5-20. (In Russ.).
4. Boguszewski R., Makowska M., Bozewicz M., Podkowinska M. (2020), The COVID-19 Pandemic's Impact on Religiosity in Poland, Religions, vol. 11, issue 12. DOI: 10.3390/rel11120646.
5. da Silva M. A., Medeiros F. B., Correo K. A. C (2021), Covid-19 and fake news: analysis of the verified news at the website "Fact or fake", Chasqui-revista Latinoamericana de comunicacion, Dec.-Mar, issue 145, pp. 119-136.
6. Gajdzik B. (2020), Steel production in Poland with pessimistic forecasts in COVID-19 crisis, Metalurgija, 60 (1-2).
7. Gawrych M., Cichon E., Kiejna A. (2021), COVID-19 pandemic fear, life satisfaction and mental health at the initial stage of the pandemic in the largest cities in Poland, Psychology, Health & Medicine, no. 26:1, pp. 107-113. DOI: 10.1080/13548506.2020.1861314.
8. Holtzman N. A. (2020), Invited commentary: The Covid-19 pandemic in the United States, International journal for equity in health, 2020, vol. 20, issue 1. DOI: 10.1186/s12939-020-01354-6.
9. Okruszek L., Aniszewska-Stanczuk A., Piejka A., Wisniewska M., Zurek K. (2020), Safe but
Lonely? Loneliness, Anxiety, and Depression Symptoms and COVID-19, Front. Psychol, no.11:579181. DOI: 10.3389/fpsyg.2020.579181.
10. Wielechowski M., Czech K., Grzeda L. (2020), Decline in Mobility: Public Transport in Poland in the time of the COVID-19 Pandemic, Economies, vol. 8, issue 4. DOI: 10.3390/economies8040078.
Territorial features of demographic development in Poland under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic
Vassilii Martynov
Herzen Russian State Pedagogical University Russian Federation, Sankt Petersburg Irina Sazonova
Herzen Russian State Pedagogical University Russian Federation, St.Petersburg
Abstract
The relevance of the article is determined by the fact that the COVID-19 pandemic has had an impact on all areas of human activity, but its territorial differences are not sufficiently studied. The aim of the study is to identify these differences in Poland. The scientific novelty lies in the identification of the main directions of transformation of the territorial structure of the population of Poland in 2015-2020. The research methodology is a combination of statistical and analytical methods. The practical significance of the study is determined by the fact that its results can be useful in analyzing and predicting demographic processes both in Poland and in other countries, including Russia. The main conclusion is to identify the relationship between the increase in the death rate during the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic and geographical location of the territory.
Keywords: Poland, pandemic, COVID-19, demography, voivodeships, population, mortality, economic and geographical location
Date of publication: 19.05.2021
Citation link:
Martynov V., Sazonova I. Territorial features of demographic development in Poland under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic // Pskov region studies journal. - 2021. - Issue 1 (45) C. 37-45 [Electronic resource]. URL: https://prj.pskgu.ru/s221979310013636-2-1/ (circulation date: 10.11.2021). DOI: 10.37490/S221979310013636-2
Код пользователя: 0; Дата выгрузки: 10.11.2021; URL - http://prj.pskgu.ru/s221979310013636-2-1/ Все права защищены.
