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97SYSTEM SECURITY AND INFORMATION SECURITY OF ARMENIANCY
Gagik Terteryan
The paper deals with some aspects of Armeniancy in the domain of its system and information security. An attempt has been made to classify and assess the challenges targeting Armenia, as well as to uncover the opportunities resulting from those challenges. References have been made to the Armeniancy problems in the context of the contemporary information wars, classification and discussion has been made of the resources needed to counter the information assaults against Armeniancy. Systematically arranged in the paper are strategic problems of organizing the information domain, substantiating the urgency of generating the integrated All-Armenian data field. A special attention is dedicated to the networking center technology, as the most efficient criterion of organized Armeniancy, and in this connection certain potential scenarios have been considered with regard to the future of Armenia and Armeniancy. A concise account is presented of the elements of contemporary information policies, including the emergence of the new mobile policy of the new political technology. Conclusions have been drawn, presenting in particular the pressing tactical objectives of the information domain of Armeniancy.
The information factor within the current period has acquired a crucial role in nearly all fields of personal, communal, governmental, and national activities. It is the management of information that makes it possible to monitor and duly register the rapidly changing world events. Diverse information activities and wars today moved into a political plane, having become one of the most important instruments of world politics, economics and ideology. With regard to the system security of Armeniancy, this new political information situation carries a hazardous challenge as well as new opportunities. However, those urgent questions of the information domain of Armeniancy remained unheeded by the scientific analytical community. As of today, it is quite evident that there are too few conceptual approaches, while in practical applications we often trail our competitors.
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Information security of Armeniancy. It is difficult to refute the fact that the development and competitive level of nations, states and civilizations is unambiguously stipulated by their concept of national security (NS) at the ideological level. According to experimental approaches, the concept of national security is represented by three components: military and political security, socioeconomic security, and information security (IS). Those components are interconnected, and each of those, in their turn, is also a unity of similarly interconnected components. In particular, the concept of IS includes not only the problems of security of technical information systems, but everything concerning the domains of civilization, culture, spiritual life, psychology, mentality, cognitive structure, and organization. It can be stated that the concept of IS is a little more directly than other NS components associated with personal, general, and national factors.
Evidently, the Armenian IS system has to include the series of information problems related to the International Armeniancy, rather than only those of Armenia (which informationally is constituted by RA, the Republic of Nagorno Karabakh, and Javakhk). Let us also note that “The Strategy of National Security” is a document adopted in RA. This document lists two client entities of national security: Armenia and Armeniancy [1]. Thus, the structures ensuring IS (Information Security) of Armenia and Armeniancy, are naturally interconnected and supported at least by mutual complement, while at a higher level by the principle of synergetics (mutual amplification).
It is also to be noted that the problems of Armenia’s Information domain are more or less formulated. However, one can assume that if the experimentally substantiated executive and legislative resolutions are adopted, then it will be possible to set up an efficient system of Armenia’s IS and to improve the information aspect of the not-so-favorable situation [2; 3, p. 3; 4, p. 1]. Generating the Panarmenian system, is undoubtedly a complex but a fully realistic problem. However, the capabilities and problems existing in the Information domain of Armeniancy from the specialized viewpoint have not even been classified.
Capabilities and Problems of Armeniancy within the context of IS. From the viewpoint of system information there are the following crucial favorable factors:
1. The concept of Home Country and the existence of two Armenian states:
RA and Republic of Nagorno Karabakh (RNK).
2. Original Armenian civilization and its general concept.
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3. The reality and memory of Genocide, and the problem of HI DAT (Armenian Judgment).
4. Integrating relations of RA and RNK, military and political processes with regard to Azerbaijan and Turkey, and their interrelations.
The latter two factors today have become a component of the global politics, which is a favorable factor from the viewpoint of information integration of Armeniancy. It is to be noted that the latter point is actually a contemporary reflection of Hi Dat. However, today many of the expert community think that the mentioned strategic factors from the viewpoint of Armeniancy organization are still insufficient, while new concepts and projects are needed, consonant with the new logic of the contemporary world that would stipulate the processes of organizing Armeniancy.
To establish the IS system of Armeniancy, the development of contemporary information and communication technologies must be regarded as a crucial positive factor. The capabilities of this domain will be considered later. As a favorable trend one has also to admit the adoption of International and particularly European conventions with regard to national minorities. They can assist the Armenian communities within the legislative framework of a given country improving the national information domain.
At the same time, the matter of creating the IS system of Armeniancy encountered serious problems. Let us try to classify them:
1. The number of Armenians abroad are twice the population of Armenia,
i.e., providing the Armeniancy with information, is only numerically a larger problem than the one in Armenia.
2. Armeniancy is divided into different sections, with regard to linguistic and religious features, the problem concerns not only the Islamized Armenians of Turkey, but also our numerous compatriots living in different countries, speaking many languages and confessing diverse religions. From the point of view of information integration, this situation is a serious communicative and psychological barrier.
3. Geographically, Armeniancy is sprawled in about 100 countries, that can be classified along the following civilizational belts [5, 6].
• Armenia (the special territory of Armenian civilization).
• The belt of Slavic Orthodox civilization, to be emphasized here is the post-Soviet territory and not to be ignored are the countries claiming the legacy of Byzantium (like Greece).
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• The Anglo-American political domain (embracing the so-called Englishspeaking countries USA, Canada, Great Britain, Australia, New Zealand, etc.).
• The belt of European civilization
• The territory of Islamic (Asian) civilization (primarily the countries of Near and Middle East).
• The Latin (Catholic) political domain, countries of South America, Spain, etc.
The abovementioned civilizations have exerted a certain influence upon the world outlook of different areas of Armeniancy, upon their psychological, cultural, political and socioeconomic bearings, putting forward serious problems of communicative nature. It is also evident that inside the large civilizations Armeniancy is not homogeneous either. Let us try to make a comparison, e.g., between the world outlooks of the Armenians residing in post-Soviet Siberia and Moldova.
It is to be noted that the unfavorable factors presented, certainly present serious challenges for the Armeniancy. At the same time, the current situation also contains opportunities, viz.: the capability of the Armeniancy sectors to communicate with representatives of diverse civilizations has to be perceived as an additional resource in the world under globalization1 to ensure the vital functions and compatibility of the Nation (incidentally, this type of capabilities is accessible to very few nations). Thus, different sections of Armeniancy carry certain functional consignment, and, using a contemporary term, play the role of special “gates to the global world” [7]. Certainly, this concept assumes not only the case of Armenia, for which Diaspora is an asymmetric resource1 2 providing the capabililties for operating within the global environment. Different sections of Armeniancy also provide one another with asymmetric capabilities of gates to global world.
However, besides the abovementioned problems partly deriving from national features, the system information of Armeniancy hides other challenges.
1 It is to be noted that for the current multipolar world a probable development scenario can be regarded a multi-civilizational system wherein the states are grouped with regard to their civilizational features.
2 МихаилАгаджанян, Диаспоральный ресурс Армении как «асимметричный» ответ на ее изоляцию, http:// www.noravank.am/?l=2&d=19
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The Global Development, Information Wars and Armeniancy It is common knowledge that the number of independent states has recently grown, and this is an ongoing process. However, according to expert predictions, part of existing nations and states in the strategic perspective may well have to lose its ethnic and political autonomy, to become passive members of International politics. These tendencies are being delineated in Europe. This problem is urgent, particularly for big nations and states, which do not command resourses necessary for maintaining the autonomy, particularly those of the information domain. It is to be noted in this connection that today autonomy among other things is threatened by publicly-uncontrolled global chaotic data streams. Parallel to that, a loss of autonomy or modification can be one of the following: the so-called Nation Building containinig elements of technology designed for technological assaults using manipulative propaganda. A series of targeted information actions has acquired the name of Information Wars, whose conceptual terminology had been developed by the American RAND brain trust.: The purpose of information wars in particular is “in a complex way to influence the Aggressor’s national system and his leadership; that can result in the enemy taking decisions in favor of the initiator of the information war”.
One can quote many instances showing Armenia and Armeniancy to be the target of information war1. It is also to be noted that still more dangerous for Armeniancy today are information wars of the second generation, intending specifically to achieve the following objectives in the Aggressor’s society or state [8, p. 29]:
• Developing immoral, non-spiritual atmosphere and negative attitude with regard to own cultural legacy.
• Dissemination of uncertainty and doubt, among parties sharpening the political relations and incitement to mutual destruction.
• International defamation of state and nation, hurting their interaction.
• Inflicting damage on the political, economic, defense interests and other vital domains of state and nation.
1 See Самвел Мартиросян, Некоторые вопросы информационной безопасности Армении и Армянства, http://www.noravank.am/ru/?page=analitics&nid=679; Самвел Мартиросян, Азербайджан наращивает информвойну, http://www.noravank.am/ru/?page=theme&thid=3&nid=986; Айкарам Наапетян, К вопросу об увеличении количества асербайджанских сайтов в интернете, http://www.noravank.am/ru/? page=theme&thid=3&nid=985
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As is seen, the second-generation information wars emphasize the crucial character of the spiritual and ideological factors. It is to be noted in this connection that the mentioned items can be seen in the present-day so-called colored revolutions, it was particularly observed by Armeniancy in 2008 in the developments associated with the RA Presidential Election. It can be assumed that what happened was the classical case of the information wars of the new generation, when the Aggressor’s party resolved its on-hand objectives particularly disseminating uncertainty and intolerance amidst the different sections of Armeniancy1.
It is common knowledge that to counter the information wars or to acquire the first-strike capability in information war, specific information resources are needed. We shall estimate those resources with regard to the generation of the Information Security of Armeniancy.
Resources of Armeniancy Classification of national resources and their assessment is a crucial function of the system of national and particularly information security. It is for this reason that with no claims for a universal examination we shall try to present a succinct and schematic sketch of the available strategic resources of Armeniancy and their assessment with regard to Information Security.
1. Resources pertaining to the political, i.e., national, spiritual or cultural domains,
2. Technological: this term denotes human, intellectual, creative, scientific, technical and purely information and news media resources.
3. Material or production, trading, financial or enterprising capabilities.
4. Capacity for establishing the organizational, i.e. self-organizing, structures needed for vital functions, (including state and community, political, public, economic, national institutions etc.), securing interaction among those structures and thereby implementing functions and programs aimed at protecting the national interests.
Let us briefly review the mentioned resources:
• Armeniancy is unambiguously an autonomous carrier of the values of Armenian civilization, being thus in full command of the political resources (see, particularly, [6, 9, с. 3]).
1 To be noted in an informational context, are particularly these details: during the electoral process, the discrimination between the natives of Kharabakh and those of Armenia, and attempts to make use of its negative implications, distorting reports of election events from some Armenian communities, and generating a negative image of Armeniancy.
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The technological resources are at a nearly satisfactory level, however, to be taken into account is that
• they are rather scarce and unaccounted for (which is also an urgent organizational issue). The human resources of Armeniancy, 9 to 12m., according to some sources (see [10, 11]), are comparatively not large,
• as intellectual, creative1 or purely information resources, they are not well listed or regularly accounted for (about 2-5 thousand Armenian sites in the Internet1 2, wherein the continuously growing number of sites reaches 110 million).
• Perhaps also quite satisfactory but still unaccounted for are the material resources (the Armenian assets worldwide are estimated at a few hundred billion dollars).
• As shown by observations, the system resources are definitely unsatisfactory: Armeniancy, as we have discovered, has certain problems associated with management (suffice it to note that an Armenian system concept today is inexistent).
As is seen, in the way of survival and competition resources Armeniancy has a special status. There is an impression that having certainly mastered the civilizational resources, and seemingly being on satisfactory terms with the technological and finantial resources, the status of Armeniancy worldwide could have been better, and the financial situation could have been better as well. The response to this situation, is clearly related to the system resources. It is easy to see that the different resources presented are interlinked, so that an omission in system operation will limit or impair the productivity of functions in other domains.
Perhaps, there is no need to expand on the significance of the systemic factor, it is manifest that a high level of system organization will bring about successful operation even when other resources are low, while a low level of systemic functions will result in operational failures in systems hosting enormous amounts of resources. Armeniancy has certainly been provided with some
1 Note that the collapse of the Soviet system of science was a great loss for Armeniancy. The RA Nationoal Academy today is in crisis (suffice it to remember that the share of NAS is 0.2%, while in Europe and in some post-Soviet countries it is 1.5%). Representatives of Armeniancy outside Armenia have not yet established any national system of science. Also see: Գագիկ Հարությունյան, Հայաստանը գլոբալ աշխարհում, 21 րդ Դար,
#2 (17), էջ 3, 2007։
2 By expert evaluations of the Noravank Foundation Armenological Center; on the Armeniancy information resources see Կարեն Վրթանեսյան, Սամվել Մարտիրոսյան, Համացանցը և մենք. վերլուծական ակնարկ, «Ռազմավարության և անվտանգության հարցեր» ժողովածու, էջ 205, «Արարատ» ռազմավարագիտա-կան կենտրոն, Ե., 2007։
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system-organizing capabililties, otherwise, the millennia of its history would never have taken place. It would be proper to recall the successful outcome in the face-off in Kharabakh, according to expert assessments, it happened in the first place due to the advantages of a systemic and technological character.
However, the impression is that in non-extreme situations Armeniancy oftentimes shows a certain unconcern, thus negatively affecting the information domain of Armeniency and its systemic functions. This situation will perhaps in the first place require a clarification and possibly adjustment of the Armeniancy Information problems, and only then an attempt may follow to resolve those objectives with regard to their systemic aspects.
The Information Domain of Armeniancy. Systemic Problems According to our model, among the multiple problems of the domain, priority should be given to the following:
1. Assessment of the Armeniancy Information Resourses and formation of the new ones, their constructive and safe usage, system development.
2. Supplying to Armaniancy the imformed awareness with regard to Armenia and Armeniancy, constructing the necessary stocks to carry out the information policies.
3. With regard to the national interests of Armeniency,
4. Domestic Armenian and outside propaganda/anti-propaganda conceptual and technological development and practical implementation,
5. Making up the mutually completing images, their introduction into consciousness,
6. Implementation of political, scientific, educational and other panArmenian programs in the cognitive mechanisms of Armeniancy and other communal entities.
7. Application of contemporary information policies in resolving problems of Armeniancy in politics, culture, economy, and other domains.
8. Conceptual development of the pan-Armenian Information Network Center as an organizing system, to effect the formation of an integral Information domain.
To successfully implement the initial three points, it is necessary to establish the International Information structures that will particularly build up multi-language sites on Armenia and Armeniancy as well as other information structures, study of the dispersion-possessing nations and their information
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experience, collection of information banks and undertaking a variety of enterprises.
As to point 4, the contemporary information policy, it is to be noted that in the world under globalization, resulting from information technologies being developed and spread, in politics important roles started to be acquired not only by state structures, but also by organizations and even individuals. That is to say, non-state-run structures: communities, public and political structures, are capable to conduct specific policies. The information policies of this type can be effected, in particular, using the following methods[12]:
• Cyberpolitics. According to David Rotkopf, the person who coined this term (1998), the development of information technologies resulted in the traditional political entities or states, had lost their monopoly to knowledge (information). In the past only specific structures and diplomats knew what was going on in specific parts of the world, while today a rank-and-file internet user can be equally in control of this information, and may consequently have a certain role to play in the information-political processes.
• Knowledge-based politics John Arkil and David Ronfeld in 1999 wrote on the falling role of the state, noting that the new political entities, International organizations, the media, transnational economic partnerships, terrorist and criminal structures have aquired the knowledge and information resources, enabling them to conduct independent policies in the global information field.
• Media-policies. This term was put into circulation by Lee Edwards in 2001, to show that the Internet and TV had become the most important factors of politics. They play a substantial role in shaping the foreign and domestic policies, drawing the attention of the public or the authorities to specific matters.
To be added to the information policies is another term and concept, i.e. mobile policy: The latter expresses a great expansion of the mobile or cellular phones, the so-called third screen (after TV and computer), and the development of their technical capabilities. The users of those phones (reaching over a billion today) can receive, process and transmit text, sound and images in a dynamic mobile mode, regardless of location or geographic coordinates). Mobile policies today have become an important business, both domestic (cf. Arab-Israeli face-off [13, с. 3]), and foreign (note the developments of 2008 in connection with the RA Presidential Elections, when demonstrators’ actions were system-adjusted mostly through SMS messages): Mobile technologies today also play an important role in
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the process of socioeconomic network formation.
The fifth point of the systemic organization problems of Armeniancy: Information Network Center (INC) the organizational system conceptual development to be used for generating the Integrated Information Field of Armeniancy is to be regarded as the strategic supertask. This evaluation is stipulated by the following considerations.
In the modern world Information System Organization is considered perfect. The elements of Network Center, being decentralized, but having a great level of autonomy and extensive capabilities to act in a productive way, are placed in an integrated information field, a network, having a joint management and purposes. In particular, the Network Center format has a great stability: when one of the system components shows a malfunction, the others, by virtue of a high degree of self-control continue their targeted action. It is to be noted that the different modifications of the INC are adopted by US and other states, as, in particular, as the organizing principle of their Armed Forces [14]. According to some studies, this type of networking process may result in generating a collective intellect enabling estremely difficult solutions to be obtained for problems irresolvable by individual persons [15, с. 142]: Some scholars think that the future global world will be organized as a series of network structures [16, էջ 3].
The modern information age enables not only states, but also various organizations to generate network systems, and in this aspect, the strategic application of INC must be extremely productive with regard to Armeniancy. Which will in particular enable to make a full-range use of nation-wide political, scientific, engineering, cultural and economic projects.
We shall note that Armeniancy in the historic past used to be in control of the network system techniques, while today using the principle of network center acting are Armenian Apostolic Church, Armenian Revolutionary Union, Armenian General Benevolent Union, the Giulbenkyan Institution and other national organizations. Those structures have certainly made enormous contributions to the preservation of Armeniancy. It is however to be noted that among the mentioned structures sometimes lacking is a positive data feedback. At the same time, to be considered as an omission of the Armeniancy structures is the situation that it is not always that they make use of the contemporary systemic techniques, while their ideas of national interests often do not coincide with expert evaluations.
The mentioned unfavorable factors are certainly of a systemic character
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being an additional evidence showing that not strictly defined yet to date are the systemic principles of Armeniancy and the national interests. That is to say, for the system of Armenian Information Network Center it is necessary to develop conceptual and ideological approaches. That will enable the system vitality and stabililty to be preserved even in case of the control center’s elimination, since the rest of the system elements will continue to be active on the basis of conceptual and ideological postulations and fundamentals of control techniques.
Considering the mentioned realities, we shall discuss several of the possible of the INC systems of Armeniancy associated with certain varieties of scenarios theoretically awaiting Armenia. In particular, we shall schematically consider including other multiple theoretical variations, the following two extreme and one intermediate scenarios.
"Virtual Armenia”
• Nuclear-Ecological Disaster. The Iran-US, Israel stand-off results in a regional nuclear war, triggering an ecological disaster in Armenia as a neighboring state of Iran. Scientific forecasting of nuclear war aftermaths has a 60-year-old history, we shall present the latest one. According to a research conducted at Colorado University, blasting 50 nuclear bombs in a local conflict (not exceeding the Hiroshima explosion) will produce an ozone hole killing 50m. people, i.e., approximately the amount of people killed in WWII1. It can be assumed that this type of disaster will make the area of the present-day Armenia uninhabitable.
• A Military-Political Disaster. In the wake of certain geo-political events and military developments RA and NKR are subjected to a large-scale Turkish-Azeri invasion and a long-time occupation.
Consequences. By any of the scenarios presented, the Armenian states are terminated, while the present day area of Armenia is de-Armenized. Under those circumstances, there will be perhaps a re-distribution of Armeniancy in other countries, while Armenia, after a certain period of time, will assimilate an idea of an uninhabited, virtual homeland.
Note that presented here are several seemingly improbable but theoretically possible scenarios of basic threats to Armenia’s security. In case of this development the tasks of Armeniancy preservation and systemic organization can
1 «Ученые описали катастрофические последствия локальной ядерной войны». http://lenta.ru/ news/2008.04.08/nuclear/_Printed.htm: It can be noted in this connection that a regional nuclear war can trigger a technological disaster at the Metsamor NP.
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be implemented exclusively by means of generating an INC system. Under the current conditions the survival of the system can be basically guaranteed, perhaps when several information control centers operate in parallel, not any one of those being prevalent over the others. Those centers are to be controlled using the principles of integrated national ideology representing the concept of Arme-niancy’s security. In order to maintain operational efficiency, the mentioned system centers are to operate jointly to generate positive feedback (i.e., mutual amplification) between the elements of the system. This type of joint operation and the relevant systems are commonly classified as non-linear.
“Mighty Armenia" This scenario assumes the following developments: resulting from the geopolitical disturbances and developments, Armenia rehabilitates her territorial integrity, while Armeniancy is concentrated in this new and mighty state. This is possible, particularly, under the following circumstances:
1. Turkey is involved in a large-scale war against one or several of its neighbors (e.g., Iraq, Armenia, Greece).
2. An unlucky outcome of war for Turkey results in intensified interethnic clashes: the struggle conducted by the Kurds is joined by other national minorities: Armenians, Greeks, et al., i.e., so-called autonomy crisis transgresses into practical military and political dimensions.
3. The mentioned processes sharpen relations among diversely politically oriented groupings inside Turkey, eventually resulting in political clashes. The state and society crisis takes a chaotic and uncontrollable character.
4. Armenia and Armeniancy (maybe also other stake-holder states) benefit from the situation in Turkey, stipulating the fragmentation of that country and a sizeable rehabilitation of Armenia’s territorial integrity. Implemented as the next step is concentration of Armeniancy in a part of historical area, thus generating a powerful state of Armenia.
However, even the Mighty Armenia capable of housing the overwhelming part of Armeniancy, must strive to having small but efficient communities in developed countries. However, even if Armenia is transformed into the supreme center of Armeniancy, all the same, the tendency should remain to retain the traditional resources of Armeniancy, granting them status of specific missions. To be generated within this variant is a classical INC system of an Armenia center for organizing Armeniancy, with the control mainly effected from one center.
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“Developed Armenia’ This scenario assumes conceptual, but linearly developed Armenia in the strategic future. Assumed in this connection are the following situations:
1. Armenia, aided by Armeniancy, state resources, as well as allied and partner countries, has acquired guarantees of military security, possibly integrated into international economy, started the process of re-populating the liberated areas.
2. Developed Armenia becomes very attractive for Armeniancy, the Armenia-to-Armeniancy relationships assume a regulated character, generation is started of an integrated information field.
The presented developments are very realistic, and perhaps even mandatory, since in case of an undeveloped Armenia generation of an INC system of Armeniancy becomes a matter of great complexity.
There is no doubt that the “Developed Armenia”, hosting the overwhelming part of the national systemic resources, will represent the most organized part of Armeniancy. As a result, this type of state in the INC system will acquire an important role. At the same time, a considerable part of national technological and material resources remain in possession of Armeniancy residing in other countries and zones of civilization, as well as in the hands of the Armenians also active in other systemic formats, that is to say, those fragments of Armeniancy can also play an advanced part in the INC system of Armeniancy.
Thus, in case of the “Developed Armenia”, from the point of view of information system, Armeniancy poses, compared to the two previous scenarios, in an intermediate position. This type of intermediate system has to combine in itself both the non-linear (dispersed), and the classical (Armenia-centered) INC concepts.
Some conclusions. At the present moment the capabililty of hosting information and its efficient and targeted usage has become a crucial criterion of surviving and competitive characteristics of the nations. In the case of Armeniancy raising the significance of information is at the same time a source of hazardous challenge and new oportunities. It can be seen that in order to resist challenges and to use the oportunities it is necessary to host diverse national resources and primarily concepts on national/information security problems. At the same time, despite hosting the civilizational, technological and material resources, Armeniancy has certain problems in the systemic domain. In this context deserving special attention are theoretical development and practical
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application of the information-organizational system of the National Network Center. This type of system seems to meet the interests of the scattered Armeniancy and particularly enables applications to be envisaged of the forthcoming strategies using the modern techniques of information policies.
April, 2008.
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