CC BY
27SWOT-ANALYSIS OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY OF THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS
Snezhana Kovalenko,
Gomel Branch of International University "MITSO" Candidate of agricultural Sciences, associate Professor, Faculty of Economics and Law
ABSTRACT
The article drafts a conceptual outline of a strategy designing for overcoming the economic crisis unambiguously manifested in the economy of the Republic of Belarus in 2015. The matrix of possible strategies is based on the SWOT-analysis of the Belarusian economy. The analysis has been developed in the appropriate system of assumptions.
Key words: SWOT-analysis, strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats, new macro-economic strategy.
The Republic of Belarus's paradigm of the national economic management fits quite clearly the microeconomic categorical conceptual context (meaning that even very large corporations are considered as microeconomic entities) and is placed in such an intensive problem field in which the development of a new strategy is one of the most important of its tasks. Hence, the use of the SWOT-analysis technique can be relevant in this case.
Choosing the database for the matrix of possible strategies, we have tried to achieve a linear irreducibility of lines S and W to lines O and T. The identification of the Belarusian economy's strengths does not have to be equated with the task of identifying the prospects (capacity) of the Belarusian economy and the fixing of its weaknesses with the task of determining threats emerging on the economic horizon, otherwise, this matrix would be incorrect [1].
We are not trying to consider all the economic problems and even all the basics-WIDE economic problems of the Republic of Belarus, but only those that are meant as crucial.
The Pros of the national economy of the Republic of Belarus (Strengths)
Following the academic way of thinking, let us list the strengths of the Belarusian economy.
The country has got a favorable geographical position, averagely developed industrial capacity, educated and disciplined workforce. The economy is moderately diversified, industrial centers and towns are located evenly throughout the country territory. There are significant deposits of potassium salt, vast forests, arable fields and water resources.
The country counts a number of large enterprises with advanced technological basis, it deals, first of all, with JSC "Belaruskali", Mozyr oil refinery which have mastered the production of motor fuel that satisfies even the highest EU standards, refinery "Naftan" in Novopolotsk, "Belshina" in Bobruisk, Belarusian Metallurgic Plant in Zhlobin, "Keramin" in Minsk and others.
The country has deployed a grand residential construction. The sporadically occurred inflation led to more affordable loans for housing construction. As a result, the proportion of homeowners in Belarus significantly exceeds the proportion of homeowners in developed countries such as Germany, Italy and France.
A significant asset of the Belarusian economy consists in a low level of social inequality. The decile ratio, less six, is one of the lowest in Europe.
The country has a low level of poverty. The hunger index is also one of the lowest in Europe.
The biggest value of the Republic of Belarus, as well as of
any other European country, is human capital. The experience of devastating wars and rapid recovering of the material basic facilities in the developed countries has proved that human capital is the most significant of all what a nation can have. Our people are hardworking, disciplined, patient, educated.
The Cons of the national economy of the Republic of Belarus (Weaknesses)
Let us state the weaknesses of the national economy of the Republic of Belarus.
The program of socio-economic development of Belarus for 2011-2015 assumed the GDP growth of 162-168% over five years and the increase in its per capita at PPP to 28.6-29.8 thousand US dollars in 2015. In fact, the country's GDP grew in 2011 by 5.5%, in 2012 to 1.5%, in 2013 to 0.9%, in 2014 to 1.6% [2].
In 2015, the GDP of the Republic of Belarus amounted to 869.7 trillion rubles, having decreased by 3.9% compared to 2014 year. At the same time the domestic industry produced 6.6% less than in 2014, while the investment in fixed assets amounted to 84.8% of the 2014 level [2].
Only four targets of the nine main estimated figures for the five years have been achieved, they are: the index of the positive trade balance, the level of sales profitability, the level on the energy intensity of GDP. During the last year of the five-year forecast the CPI index reached its estimated value and amounted in December 2015 to 112.0% in comparison with December 2014 baseline [3].
The flow indicators, even if they look dramatic, are able to valuate neither qualitative changes occurring in the world of goods and services nor spontaneous changes in the national wealth, nor significant transformations in the side effects elements and public welfare. There may be situations in which even zero economic growth is accompanied by the rapid economic development, if (with stable prices) there is a rapid qualitative change of the consumer and investment goods. On the contrary, high values of the economic growth, such as China's one can coexist with the gradual and seemingly inconspicuous decreasing of the national wealth and the deterioration of the human capital quality. The specificity of our analysis of the Belarusian economy lies in the fact able to show the importance of financial depth indicators of the economy related to the stock performance category.
A very low financial depth of the economy characterizes the national economy of the Republic of Belarus. The ruble money supply M2 was of 89.1356 trillion Rubles on 01.01.2016, having decreased compared to 01.01.2015 to 1.0157 trillion. Rubles (see. Figure) [4, 5].
Figure 1. Value of M2 monetization coefficient in the Republic of Belarus in 2003-2015, GDP percentage
As it can be seen from the figures, the rate of M2 monetization of the economy in 2015 was 10.2%, while it was reaching 70% in the former Soviet Union. Most European countries have got much higher values of the monetization coefficient.
The relationship between the market capitalization of the stock market of the Republic of Belarus and the GDP was only 5.5%, whereas in developed countries it is at least fifteen times more. The trading volume of the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange in 2014 capped at 66.4 trillion dollars, which amounts to approximately US $ 9 billion taking into account the exchange rate in 2014. It is several times less than the Belarusian GDP in 2014, whereas in developed countries the volume of the stock exchanges trading exceeds the GDP of these countries in many times [6]. Thus, the securities, being a type of commodity goods, carry out a very important function of binding the extra money in the economy. The Belarusian stock market having at least some traces of stocks and bonds cannot boast having such important securities as depositary receipts, investment funds shares, the main subsidiary financial instruments are out of use.
The main weakness of the national economy of the Republic of Belarus consists in clearly pronounced horizontal and vertical deficit of confidence in the business environment. This leads to an extreme reluctance of individuals and entities to spend liquidity, which also conditions high interest rates with all its consequences. The deficit of trust was not shaped by occasion in the community, but is a consequence of multiple distortions of information arising from the excessive centralization of the economic mechanism. The more centralized economic mechanism becomes, the more it requires administrative institutions and non-economic means to solve economic problems, and the less the general management tends to rely on trust. Therefore, it must be stated that during the economic crisis a centralized system can reproduce itself on an enlarged scale that in addition to political issues, generates multiple transaction costs and data loss inherent for large production systems.
The country has one of the most cumbersome tax systems in the world. Indirect taxes dominate. In 2015 the share of the three main indirect taxations forming the state budget - VAT, excise duties and customs duties, was respectively 36.9, 11.2
and 9.7 %. While the three of the most important direct taxes -income tax, profit tax and property tax were respectively 17.0, 10.6 and 5.1 % [7].
Unlike direct taxes, indirect taxes include the latent charge of social inequality because they are paid by consumers and the largest share of consumption expenditure of funds accounts for the poor. The press burden of indirect taxes deprives the Belarusian companies of agility and creates the worst conditions in comparison with the most likely competitors on international markets.
The negative demographic situation existing during the last decades has led to the progressive aging of the population. In recent years, a rapid reduction in the country's labor potential has begun.
The unpredictability of the business environment, constant changes of the "rules of the game" have led to a boldly marked shortage of direct foreign investments and, in general, private investment in the country.
The share of small and medium business in Belarus is one of the lowest in Europe. The dominance of large enterprises in the economic life conditions business inertia to the changes occurring in the market.
B - Matured possibilities of the national economy of Belarus (Opportunities)
There is an alternative growth strategy under which the focus is now made to increase the flow values; this strategy focuses attention to the changes occurring in the national economy independently of the economic growth. The wealth of society if it is properly formalized in the economic field can be increased synergistically, by increasing the value of the basic production factors, even if the output volume keeps constant.
The value of the land does not depend on the value of its product and the actual value of the future products from the land. Structural capital is a value, which is undependable of the value of its product and the actual value of the future products from the use of the structural capital. Human capital is a standalone value of its product value and can have an actual value of the future products from the use of human capital. Having the same growth rate of social production and the same Gini coefficient any society can be rich and poor, prosperous and degenerated, healthy and depressed.
Let us formulate the strategic opportunities of Belarus's of the developed countries helps study what level of economy national economy in the given format. The comparative monetization is acceptable (table 1). method of the valuation can be used in this case. The example
Table 1
The value of the main indicators of financial depth in various countries [8, 9]
Indicators of financial depth World Euro area TheUSA JAPAN The U.K. China Brasil India Russia
M2 relatively to GDP (%) 128,7 172,1 89,9 241,2 164,3 184,6 80,8 76,3 51,5
The market capitalization of listed companies to GDP 94,6 59 151,2 95,1 106,5 58 36 76,1 20,7
M2 index is measured according to the IMF methodology as the cash sum of outside the banking system of demand deposits, excepting for governmental deposits, as well as time savings deposits, foreign currency deposits of residents, excepting governmental deposits. In Belarus, this figure corresponds approximately to a broad money supply M3. According to the statistics of the National Bank the value of broad money supply (M3) in the national economy amounted to 326.9 trillion rubles on January 1, 2016. At the same time the largest part of the Belarusian M3 are deposits in foreign currency which amounts to 11.8 billion $ on the 01.01.2016 (about 218 trillion. rubles) [4]. Thus, Belarus's economy monetization coefficient comparable to the data given in Table 1 amounts to 36.7%.
The excess of the monetization factor numerator over its denominator (broad money over GDP) will not generate inflation if a solid stock market exists, because, as we had observed before, correctly structured securities are able to bind a significant part of monetary body in the national economy. We assume as normal the average value of the coefficient of monetization in the world 128.7%. The difference between the average world value and the value of the Belarusian monetization is 92 percentage points (128.7% average monetization value minus Belarusian 36.7%). Each additional percentage point of non-inflationary monetization increases the level of money supply in the country in 8.7 trillion roubles, i.e. about 400 mln. US dollars. Thus, adding the missing 92 points of the monetization rate, we will do an acceptable increase in M3 at 36.8 billion US dollars. In other words, if our country is able to create a civilized and regular stock market in the context of the global average capital turnover in shares and other securities, the possibility to give credits to the economy will be possible on a much broader basis at a much lower interest rate.
Given to the fact that the ratio of the capitalization of Belarusian enterprises to GDP is 5.5% [4] and, taking into account the data on this position, shown in Table 1 (line "Market capitalization of listed companies to GDP"), it must be noted that this huge difference can be interpreted positively. The extreme underdevelopment of the stock market in Belarus contributes to the presence of large reserves of socio-economic development. Some prosperity had been achieved without the stock market, so we can expect to some extra money when having a functional stock market. We are able to make the leap into the future faster than such country as Ireland, the
country in many ways similar to Belarus, because we have got at our disposal already approved macroeconomic methodology and available new technologies, and they are brought on the territory of Belarus by direct foreign investment.
The legislation in Belarus allows creating a highly efficient national stock market and land market, which can become channels of large-scale influx of foreign investment.
At the same time - we can state it with regret - the Belarusian scientific community enjoys the broad support of the well-known Keynesian-neoclassical paradigm, based on the fixed dependence of the amount of money in the economy on the flow of goods and services. A number of proposals aimed at stimulating economic growth through expansionary fiscal and expansionary monetary policy should be referred to the context of this paradigm. The Conservative position opposes to it insisting on the domination of anti-inflation measures in the economic development strategy. Their understanding of the category of "providing money" is limited by the amount of cash reserves, especially gold and currency reserves of the National Bank.
On the one hand, we do not deny the importance of the flows of final goods and services for money provision, on the other hand, the amount of cash reserves. However, we express wonder why up to these days the scientific community of Belarus has not properly understood the role of the structural capital in securing money and achieving a normal level of the economy monetization.
The capital is a tangible or intangible value entitled with revenue generating capacity. This is a classic definition which can be pronounced with a certain accent. In Belarus, as a rule, we emphasize on the fact that the capital brings revenue. It is believed that the value of the capital is wholly determined by the ability to generate small or large income. However, there are no contraindications to the classic definition of the capital putting the emphasis differently: the capital, first of all, is a value, and therefore is able to generate income.
Indeed, the benefits brought by the capital, cannot be understood solely as the fact that it can serve as a resource in the production function. The capital can deliver liquidity premium to business, acting as a store of value, and even as a means of circulation, if it performs the collateral agent function in contractual relations.
So, we believe that the most promising possibility of the
Belarusian economy can be the formalization of the national wealth of the Republic of Belarus in the economic field, the shift of the attention from the stream of indicators as GDP to indicators of financial depth of the national economy.
The most urgent threat faced by the national economy of the Republic of Belarus (Threats)
Let's list the most manifested actual threats for the normal development of the national economy.
The underdevelopment of the monetary system in Belarus leads to the fact that a tiny change in the money supply is fraught with the outbreak of heavily managed inflation. The main reason consists in too high velocity of money circulation in the country. For example, the share of long-term deposits of individuals in total deposits in the national currency amounted to only 25% in August 2015. The most popular assets in the country are highly liquid foreign assets, which by themselves do not generate revenue but they can be quickly put into circulation.
A significant threat to the rapid unwinding of inflation is strikingly expressed by the spread between the CPI of the Republic of Belarus and the growth of the US dollar exchange rate. The inflation rate in Belarus amounted to 12% in 2015 [2], the exchange rate of the US dollar changed from 10.95 thousand rubles in December 2014 to 18.28 thousand in December 2015, which is an increase by 67 %. Official reserve assets decreased from 5.059 billion $ in December 2014 to 4.176 billion $ in December 2015, the reduction for one year is 883 million $ [3]. At the same time according to the statistics of the National Bank of Belarus the reserves in convertible foreign currencies make up for only 1.9 bln $ accounting for 16.1% of the volume of the bank deposits in foreign currency [4]. Another round of the currency market volatility can have the most dramatic impact on Belarusian banking system. Under these circumstances, the
restrictive monetary policy is determined in order to prevent bank panics. As a rule, monetary restriction has a classic depressive effect on the economy.
The inflation rate delay respectively to the rate of the national currency devaluation should determine an important stimulating effect on exports and discourage imports. And the result is really there: at the end of the year there results a positive balance of foreign trade in goods and services in several hundred million US dollars. It is not enough to offset the threat of the imported inflation and the risk of the financial system destabilization. There is a dilemma: the wage restraint, the limitation of business initiatives and the prices can act oppressively on the business environment; On the other hand, attempts to cheer up consumer and investment demand in the mainstream macroeconomic framework can represent a significant threat to the banking system.
An increasing competition in the world in chronic shortage of direct investments in the Belarusian economy may lead to a very depressed situation of the industry of the Republic of Belarus. The share of investment in fixed assets in January -September 2015 amounted to 22.9%, which is below the threshold level of safety in 25% [6].
There is a significant probability of economic sanctions affect on major domestic exporters. The Russian economy subjected to the sanctions, the civil war in the Ukraine and the beginning of the economic growth braking in China may also be severe exogenous threats to the Belarusian economy which is very sensitive to external shocks.
Some finishing touches to the development of a new macro-economic strategy
Let us make up a Thompson-Strickland matrix whose cells indicate the serial number of the component of a single anticrisis strategy for the Republic of Belarus (table 2).
Table 2
Thompson-Strickland matrix for the development of anti-crisis strategy applied to the national economy of the Republic of Belarus
S - strengths W - weaknesses
O - current opportunities I. Changing priorities in the economic development strategy II. Eliminating or mitigating the weaknesses of the national economy
T - actual threats III. The activist policy to remove the most urgent threats IV. Development of a large stabilization mechanism
Let us briefly characterize the modules which can be an important addition to the anti-crisis strategy for the Republic of Belarus.
I. Shift of priorities in the economic development strategy
The macroeconomic projects that will use these strengths are determined at the intersection of the fields of strengths and opportunities of the Belarusian economy.
1. The industrial core of the national economy can become the economic substance for the resuscitation of millions of Belarusian shares, which in turn may be a means of binding more money supply, giving non-inflationary content to the expansion of monetary policy. It is not possible to release money to consolidate the investment demand, before it could provide the real value of the new shares, or on the contrary, it is not possible first to issue shares, and then use them as collateral function in binding new credit money. It is necessary to specify the new required conditions of the money supply growth, so
that the money turnover rate could get slower. On the other hand, the indices of domestic stocks should be managed by means of delicate instruments of non-conventional monetary policy which became popular in recent years.
The National Bank of Belarus has a clear register of the strategic objectives, aimed at regulating the circulation of money in the country. When the additional money provision, designed to serve coming into circulation capital funds, is considered in conjunction with the formation of a civilized securities market, this problem could be entrusted to specially created for these purposes the Capital Bank - Investment Fund of the first level, which could be as high legal status as the National Bank of Belarus. The Capital Bank formation should shape adequate demand for securities within the country. But the formation of population's habits to invest in domestic enterprises cannot be done quickly. It is impossible first to build a civilized stock market, and then to teach the population and economic entities
to use it. These two processes should go together under a single flexible management.
2. Civilized stock market, disciplined and organized labor will form the basis for attracting foreign direct investment, if global investors are assured of the stability of game rules. Geographical location can be a stimulus for the development of transport networks of international trade flows, as well as large logistics centers.
Particularly promising is becoming the use of the advantages of the Belarusian model of economic development to attract foreign direct investment (FDI). There is a prejudice, according to which, the bigger the share of domestic enterprises owned by the residents, the more there is a difficulty in offering shares to major foreign investors, which now becomes the prime rate. This is indeed a prejudice. A significant number of minorities in the national economy, a comfortable legislation for small shareholders, ceteris paribus should lead to the establishment of a favorable climate for FDI. It will be so if at least several hundreds of thousands of middle-class Belarusians will become significant for their welfare package of domestic shares. On the contrary, the absence of a full-fledged stock market, the narrowness of the stock market, small number of shareholders are estimated by potential foreign investors as an alarm, a negative factor leading to the crisis cheapness of shares and, ultimately, to a shortage of investment in the national economy. Even if we accept the thesis of the financial weakness of domestic investors, the shares of our major companies (blue chips) will be appreciated only within the business environment in which they are valued by the residents. Therefore, it is necessary to find a means to generate the interest of the population to domestic shares. The lack of interest in domestic shares among the residents will certainly be reflected in large foreign investors, which immediately will be expressed in the bearish trend on the stock markets.
Thus, in the context of macroeconomic strategic the objective should be to increase the national wealth in any other way than by purely quantitative economic growth. The focus on the changes taking place in the structure of the national wealth will not mean the degradation of infrastructure for economic growth. In contrast, only a positive change in GDP will gain a real economic sense.
II. Elimination or mitigation of weaknesses of the national economy
When speaking about the most significant weakness of the Belarusian economy - the lack of vertical and horizontal trust in the country - it makes sense to develop and improve the concept of collateral value in the Republic. In the case of informative asymmetry on markets, the economic theory recommends to use more decisively the institution of safeguards. If economic agents do not trust even the powers of the property institution, it is required to involve economic units themselves to restore vertical and horizontal confidence. Economic objects can be a source of guarantees only if they are the object of private property. So the need for privatization is deduced.
A widespread private ownership is able to create a solid base of collateral credit system, which, of course, will have a downward pressure on interest rates.
It is necessary to take into account the fact that domestic investors, even having very limited funds, should have real
access to large privatization objects. It means that even an average Belarusian should have the opportunity to invest his (her) savings, not only in foreign currency, but also by means of liquidity that is generated through the diversification of various kinds of domestic securities. We are talking about the formation of a civilized stock market.
It will create conditions for reforming the tax system. The prevalence of indirect taxes in the revenue part of the state budget is explained by a pretty simple reason: direct taxation is much more difficult to collect. For example, a business can carry its activities in such a way that the profits of the enterprise are not consolidated in the accounting profit. And now the economic situation makes a company not be interested in the demonstration of its high incomes. But the management motivation will be shifted if the stock market is available. The level of the capitalization of a company will depend on the profit level, which may be a more significant economic indicator than the level of owners' income of the company and its management. Thus, the formation of financial depth of the economy, concentrating attention on the establishment of macroeconomic indicators fixing the state of the national wealth of the country, will create conditions for the elimination of one of the most glaring weaknesses of the Belarusian economy -the reformation of the tax system of the Republic of Belarus.
In addition, the habit to deal with securities rooted in masses will allow the state to make domestic borrowing to a much larger scale which, as we know, is a prerequisite for the implementation of the tax maneuver.
III. The activist policy to remove the most urgent threats
The strengths of the Belarusian national economy can be used to mitigate and even to eliminate the most notorious threats. The most significant threat today is the transformation of the present economic downturn in significant financial instability, into the abyss of the inflationary spiral. If it turns possible to build in stock values into the economic turnover (and this is impossible without a wide spread of shares and bonds) the inflation will no longer pose a serious threat. Currently, in all countries in which the stock markets are well developed, the inflation is expressed in a single-digit. For example, in 2011 the financial instability in Belarus could have been completely stopped, if, on the one hand, individuals and legal entities had been properly motivated to purchase domestic securities and, on the other hand, if the stock market had offered at least one-third of the shares of a major Belarusian enterprises as JSC "Belaruskali". All is explained by an academic textbook syllogism: firstly, there are many tested ways to shape people's interest in buying domestic shares, and, secondly, the shares of successful Belarusian enterprises may be of value, comparable to the value of all the country's GDP.
You can slow down the sliding into crisis, positioning the advantages of territorial and natural features of Belarus in the market field. But the truly powerful effect is expected only in conjunction with the use of possibilities of capital assets of the Belarusian economy and the human capital of the Republic.
So, within the creation of a civilized stock market the threat of the unwinding of a new inflationary spiral will be significantly weakened since the economic turnover will have a new value - shares of domestic companies, through which it will be possible to effectively extinguish fires inflation by tying
extra money turnover with the relevant securities.
IV. The development of a large stabilization mechanism
At the intersection of contexts ranging the categories of "opportunities" and "threats", an activist government policy has been deduced, it has been designed either to eliminate the most urgent threats, or to soften, and perhaps even to sublimate, that is, to turn the threats into the means of enhancing the immunity of the national economy. But, like any activist policy, it has its own specific lameness, which is the problem of diagnosis and temporary lags. Therefore, in the framework of the existing macro-economic mainstream it is supposed to join the state activism into one bundle with automatic control system of the economy, which, of course, does not occur by itself, but requires competent debugging and fine-tuning. So, the weakness of the national economy set in the fourth cell of possible anticrisis strategies available should be understood as threats and challenges, and the awareness of the threats and challenges are constantly emerging on the economic horizon, it should not be simply a reflexive or cognitive act, but the act of acquiring an institutional shell. We are talking about the formation of a large stabilization mechanism, which would cover both fiscal and monetary spheres.
There should be strongly noted a conspicuous fact that the developed countries possess long-term financial stability, but no significant reserves. The only exception is Japan, which has solid reserves, formed back in the 90s of the 20th century. Can we admit that the GDP of developed countries provides foreign currency mass, we mean a huge mass of goods and services produced in the national economies? However, the statistics of high monetization ratios in developed countries proves the following: every billion of M2 dollars in developed countries is supported in several times by less goods and services than in the Republic of Belarus. There remains to make the only possible conclusion: the financial stability of developed countries, expressed in high coefficients of monetization of the economy, is ensured by the developed stock market. In developed countries, businesses have the possibility to spend money differently rather than buy foreign currency and consumer goods. As a result the economy has got a stabilization mechanism, successfully avoiding significant foreign exchange reserves.
Here is an example. As soon as the world feels the reaction of dollar mass rejection, the aggregate demand increases in the United States. As a result business conditions improve and stock prices rise. Stock prices raise leads to the increase in demand for US dollars and, in the end, the situation gets normalized. If the US did not have a solid stock market, any reaction of the dollar rejection in the world would end, like in Belarus, with a hectic demand on the consumer markets and the inflationary spiral.
In case of recession the stabilization mechanism wheel starts spinning in the opposite direction. The demand for government bonds rises. Their increase in value automatically causes the fall in interest rates. Falling interest rates stimulate investment and consumer demand and straightens business environment. If in the United States there was no solid domestic debt drawn up in a variety of securities, any recession would immediately rain down shares market and would turn into a depression, as it was in the 30s of the 20 th century.
Having a strong industrial core Belarus is also able to create a capital values market, which would carry out not only the function of generating additional revenues and attracting investment, but would be able to stabilize the economy softening the fluctuations in business conditions.
The progressive tax system varying tax rates in the direct correlation with the level of individuals' and businesses' income plays a stabilizing role in fiscal system. The transition from the current proportional system to the progressive tax system should start with lower tax rates on income for the socially vulnerable strata of society and increased tax rates for those businesses that receive relatively high returns thanks to market power they have in their disposal. It is clear that to avoid Laffer parabolic effect, moving in the given direction, is possible only in the case if the economic entities will form a stable motivation not to hide their revenues and profits, and by clever accounting they will not incorporate the taxes in their cost system, but, on the contrary, they will openly manifest higher income, which may occur only under a developed and developing stock market.
Another important part of stabilizing the fiscal sphere is unemployment benefits. Currently, the unemployment benefit in the Republic of Belarus is miserably tiny and it performs only one function: to encourage the unemployed to find a job as quickly as possible. As a result, most of the unemployed do not want to be registered in employment centers, the informal unemployed look for jobs by themselves, they interact lukewarmly with the infrastructure of the labor market, which results in significant transaction costs to society.
One of the most serious consequences ofhigh unemployment (formal or latent) is a depressive effect. Namely, it means that when a mass layoff happens there arises the feeling of danger not only with the dismissed but also with the employed. In Belarus it results in sharp increase in the propensity to buy foreign currency. In the countries which practice relatively high unemployment benefits, there are numerous cases of parasitism, the state bears the additional costs, but the level of negative expectations is significantly less, and, of course, it is important for the economy stabilization. Thus, the decrease of consumer demand is the price for low unemployment benefits.
To conclude, moderate unemployment benefits becoming a part of the stabilization strategy can pay for themselves. The regime established by the employment center can limit the parasitism if allowances are paid in compliance with the declared rules. This should be the regime of a joint search for decent jobs, of continuous and intensive training and retraining. Many Belarusian higher schools can be involved to this activity.
Bibliography:
1. Kovalenko, S. SWOT- analysis of the national economy of the Republic of Belarus / S. Kovalenko // Topical Issues of Economic Development: Theory and Practice: Proc. scientific. Art. / Gomel State. Skorina Univ: in 2 parts / the Editorial .: BV Sorvirov (Ch. Ed.) [and others]. - Gomel: Skaryna GSU, 2015. - Vol. 4. - Part. 1. - P. 60-62.
2. The main socio-economic indicators of the Republic of Belarus in 2015 [Electronic resource] // National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus. - Access: www. belstat.gov.by/novosti/osnovnye-sotsialno-economicheskie-
pokazateli-respubliki-belarus-v-2015-godu/. - Access Date: of Belarus in 2016-2020 [Electronic resource] / Science-
10.02.2016. analytical report. - Minsk, 2015. - Access: http://economics.
3. International reserve assets and the liquidity of the basnet.by/files/NegTen.pdf. - Access Date: 20.01.2016. Republic of Belarus in the currency on 01.01.2016 [Electronic 7. Finances of the Republic of Belarus [Electronic resource] resource] // National Bank of the Republic of Belarus. - Access: // The Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Belarus. - Access: www.nbrb.by/statistics/SStandard/Report.asp?date=2016-1-1/.www.minfin.gov.by/upload/bp/doclad/yd2015.pdf. - Access - Access Date: 19.01.2016. Date: 18.01.2016.
4. Broad money [Electronic resource] // National Bank 8. Indicators [Electronic resource] // The World Bank. -of the Republic of Belarus. - Access: www.nbrb.by/statistics/ Access: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL. MonetaryStat/BroadMoney/. - Access Date: 19.01.2016. ZG. - Access Date: 25.01.2016.
5. Bulletin of Banking Statistics for 2004-2015 [Electronic 9. Global Financial Development Database (GFDD). resource] // National Bank of the Republic of Belarus. - Access: April 2013 version [Electronic resource] // The World http://www.nbrb.by/statistics/bulletin/?menu=public. - Access Bank. - Access: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/ Date: 19.02.2016. EXTGLOBALFINREPORT/Resources/. - Access: 11.10.2015.
6. On the negative trends in the socio-economic development of the Republic of Belarus, NASB proposals to overcome them and achieve sustainable balanced development of the Republic
АЛЬТЕРНАТИВНАЯ ЭНЕРГЕТИКА В СВЕТЕ ПРОБЛЕМ ИНДУСТРИАЛЬНО-ИННОВАЦИОННОГО РАЗВИТИЯ РЕСПУБЛИКИ
КАЗАХСТАН
Кажгалиева Самал Орынбасаровна
Старший преподаватель Казахстанского университета инновационных и телекоммуникационных систем, г.Уральск,
ЗКО, Республика Казахстан Кадралиева Гульнур Маликовна
Старший преподаватель Казахстанского университета инновационных и телекоммуникационных систем, г.Уральск,
ЗКО, Республика Казахстан Казиева Ардак Ергеновна
Старший преподаватель Казахстанского университета инновационных и телекоммуникационных систем, г.Уральск,
ЗКО, Республика Казахстан
ALTERNATIVE ENERGY IN LIGHT OF THE PROBLEMS OF INDUSTRIAL-INNOVATIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN
Kazhgalievа Samal Senior lecturer at Kazakhstan University of innovative and telecommunication systems, Uralsk, WKO, Republic of Kazakhstan
Kadralievа Gulnur Senior lecturer at Kazakhstan University of innovative and telecommunication systems, Uralsk, WKO, Republic of Kazakhstan
Kazievа Ardak Senior lecturer at Kazakhstan University of innovative and telecommunication systems, Uralsk, WKO, Republic of Kazakhstan
АННОТАЦИЯ
В связи с увеличением доли парниковых газов в атмосфере и возможного повышения температуры на планете, использование альтернативных источников энергии особенно актуально. Энергетический потенциал "мягких" альтернативных источников энергии огромен, но сейчас их широкое применение связано со значительными техническими трудностями и экономическими трудностями.
ABSTRACT
Due to the increasing share of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the potential rise of the temperature on the planet the use of alternative energy sources is particularly relevant. The energy potential of "soft" alternative energy sources is enormous, but now their widespread use is associated with considerable technical difficulties and economic constraints. With regard to alternative energy innovation should be understood by the use of the results of modern scientific and technological advances that allow the market to create a new product to improve the competitiveness of the national economy in terms of globalization .
Ключовi слова: Энергетика, энергосбережение, топливно-энергетический комплекс
Key words: Energy, saving, fuel-energy complex
В связи с повышением доли парниковых газов в атмос- ее производстве, преобразовании, транспортировке, рас-фере и возможным подъемом температуры на планете, пределении и потреблении занимается новое направление вопрос применения альтернативных источников энергии энергетики — энергосбережение. В Законе Республики особенно актуален. Казахстан «Об энергосбережении и повышении энергоэф-
Вопросами эффективного использования энергии при фективности» дается следующее определение: «Энергос-
