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UDC 314
STRUCTURE OF REGION MIGRATION FLOWS N.G. Caberti
North-Ossetian dpt. of social research of the Institute of social and political research of RAS. Vladikavkaz, Russia
A.N. Caberti
North-Ossetian state university of K.L. Khetagurov. Vladikavkaz, Russia
Migration processes in the origin and destination locations have different impacts in scale and nature, not only because of their volume, but depending on the specific structure. It is considered various structural aspects of migration flows of North Ossetia-Alania Republic. Statistic analysis of scale and directions of migration flows is one of the stages of regional migration policy development. At the next stage it is necessary to study the factors and reasons that precondition direction and intensity of migration flows.
Key words: demographic potential migration flows, age structure, migration flows, the educational level of migrants.
Because of the special gender-age and educational structure, migration changes the gender and age composition and educational level of the population in the regions, both in a positive and a negative migration balance. As a rule, among the migratory movements of high proportion are young people and specialists of different educational levels. It happens because they increase the demographic and labor potential of intensive influx of regions and, on the contrary, worsen these same aspects in places where more people leaving than coming.
The structure of the migration flow can be calculated by gender and age of migrants, their marital status, nationality, length of residence in the exit areas, education, profession, membership of social groups, areas of employment, etc.
In terms of demographic impact it is advisable to study migration flows by detailed age groups, the allocation of that part of the population, which determines the current and future demographic situation in the country or in a particular region. This grouping of arrivals and departures of people in North Ossetia indicates a high demographic potential migration flows (Table 1).
Table 1
Structure of migration flows in North Ossetia by five-year age groups
Age Absolute data (people) In % to the resulta
Arrived Departed Migration saldo Arrived Departed Migration saldo
Total 14160 19672 - 5512 100 100 100
Including age
0 - 13 1157 1792 -635 8,2 9,1 11,5
14 - 15 190 298 -108 1,3 1,5 1,9
16 - 17 409 585 -176 2,9 3,0 3,2
18 - 19 633 961 -328 4,5 4,9 6,0
20 - 24 2147 2763 -616 15,2 14,0 11,2
25 - 29 2257 3093 -836 15,9 15,7 15,2
30 - 39 3111 4145 -1034 22,0 21,1 18,7
40 - 49 1824 2630 -806 12,9 13,4 14,6
50 - 54 777 1096 -319 5,5 5,6 5,8
55 - 59 579 816 -237 4,1 4,1 4,3
60 - 64 419 550 -131 2,9 2,8 2,4
65 and older 657 943 -286 4,6 4,8 5,2
The migration balance of the proportion of age groups on which depend the extent and intensity of birth (20-39 years) in 2014 amounted to 45.1% in North Ossetia. People below this age will determine the nature of reproduction in the near future. The share of this category of the population in the migration balance is also quite high - 22.6%.
It has already been said that since 2002 the republic is being left by more people than arriving. This means that migration reduces, and other things being equal, and in the future will reduce the demographic potential of North Ossetia.
The migration flows to different specific gravity represented men and women. It will also have a positive or negative (depending on the specific situation) acts on the gender composition of the population in places of inflow or outflow of migrants. For its part, the gender imbalance of the population adversely affects the marital status, on a reproduction of the indicators of the population. The migration balance of the population of North Ossetia were male, 56.4% in 2014, 43.6% of women. Approximately the gender ratio among migrants persists for many years in the country, that in a negative balance of migration, of course, affects the gender structure of the population of North Ossetia.
As already noted, the migration affects many aspects of social and economic life. In the study the results of the impact of migration on the labor potential, therefore, it is necessary to analyze the composition of migrants by the three main age groups. This population: the working-up (0 - 15 years), working-age (16 women - 54, men 16 - 59 years) and the age of retirement.
The age structure of migration flows in North Ossetia for these groups is shown in Table 2.
Table 2
Age structure of migration flows in North Ossetia in 2014 (in % to the result) [1]
Total Including the age:
Younger the working age Working age Older the working age
Arrived 15 263 1 509 12 344 1 410
Departed 17 214 1 947 13 572 1 695
Migration saldo -1951 -438 -1228 -285
in % to result
Arrived 100 9,9 80,9 9,2
Departed 100 11,3 78,9 9,8
Migration saldo 100 22,5 62,9 14,6
In 2014, among all recorded arriving in North Ossetia, in the working-age population was 80.9%, and among the retired - 78,9%. Relevant statistics show that it is this age group is the basis of the labor force. Low migration mobility of the retirement age population is well known. As part of the workforce is represented by the age of low specific weight, so it can be concluded that the migrant population over working age has little effect on the labor potential of North Ossetia.
A completely different picture of working age migrants. In the first place, their number and proportion of migrants is much greater than the number and proportion of the retirement-age population. Especially it concerns the composition of the balance of migration. Secondly, in contrast to the people above working age does not come out of working age, and will gradually enter this age. In the coming years it will participate in the formation of labor potential. As in North Ossetia negative migration balance recorded in recent years, this structure significantly reduces and will reduce its employment potential. Level of education has always been one of the main indicators of quality of the population, including migration flows.
Migrants aged 14 or over in all areas of North Ossetia are characterized by relatively high and increases the level of education (Table 3).
Education level of migrators aged 14 and older in North Ossetia-Alania, in %
Total migrators indicating the education Including education:
High professional Bachelor Secondary professional Secondary comprehensive Partial secondary comprehensive Primary, not educated
2008
Number of Arrived 100 24,4 4,0 32,7 28,2 9,2 1,6
Number of Departed 100 27,5 4,4 24,2 33,9 7,9 2,1
Migration saldo 100 34,9 5,3 4,2 47,2 5,0 3,4
2014
Number of Arrived 100 33,8 4,8 31,0 23,8 5,2 1,4
Number of Departed 100 34,4 5,4 29,1 23,3 5,6 2,2
Migration saldo 100 35,7 6,8 24,8 22,1 6,6 4,0
Sourse: [1, 2].
Statistics of migration does not stand out very accurately. Significant proportion of migrants does not indicate their education. For example, in North Ossetia in 2014, among all recorded arriving at the age of 14 years and older, the level of education does not have 18.5%, and among the retired - 15,1%. In order to obtain a more realistic picture, analytical tables for the analysis of the educational level of the migration flows in North Ossetia, we have drawn up without taking into account those who do not have their education.
According to 2014 the total number of people migrating in all directions is dominated by persons with higher education. Thus for the period considered in the table, the share of this category of migrants has increased significantly. Virtually unchanged and relatively high proportion of workers are presented with secondary vocational education. According to the latest migrants with higher education (including incomplete higher) and a secondary professional education among the arrivals accounted for 69.6%, among the retired - 68.9% and net migration - 67.3%. It should be noted that according to the results of the All-Russian population census 2010, in North Ossetia, the total number of persons aged 14 years and older who reported level of education, the proportion of persons with professional education of various levels amounted to 65.5%. That is a professional educational level of immigrants is higher than the resident population. Among the high proportion of migrants are represented persons with secondary education. Among the permanent population is a lot of people with this level of education, and so many willing to relocate themselves. Besides the desire to raise the level of education is the most important motive and cause of migration. Higher the educational level of immigrants of working age (Table 4).
Education level of migrants of working age in North-Ossetia - Alania, in %
Total migrators indicating the education Including education:
High professional Bachelor Secondary professional Secondary comprehensive Partial secondary comprehensive Primary, not educated
2008
Number of Arrived 100 26,7 4,5 33,6 27,9 6,7 0,6
Number of Departed 100 29,4 4,9 24,6 34,5 5,5 1,1
Migration saldo 100 35,5 5,9 4,8 48,8 2,9 2,1
2014
Number of Arrived 100 35,7 5,3 30,2 24,0 4,0 0,8
Number of Departed 100 36,4 6,0 28,8 23,5 4,3 1,0
Migration saldo 100 38,0 7,6 25,4 22,3 5,0 1,7
Comparative analysis of the last two tables, the data shows that: firstly the proportion of people with higher education in all areas of migration is much higher among migrants of working age than among the migrant population 14 years and over, and secondly, quickly increases the proportion of migrants high level of professional education. In 2014, net migration to migrants with higher, incomplete higher and secondary vocational education accounted for 71.0%, ie. by 3.7 percentage points higher than among all migrants aged 14 years and older.
The structure of migration flows on the educational level is differentiated by gender workers (Table 5).
Table 5
Education level of migrants aged 14 and higher in North-Ossetia - Alania,
in % by gender
Total migrators indicating the education Including education:
High professional Bachelor Secondary professional Secondary comprehensive Partial secondary comprehensive Primary, not educated
Arrived
Male 100 34,7 4,3 29,7 24,5 5,7 1,1
Female 100 32,9 5,3 32,3 23,2 4,8 1,6
Departed
Male 100 34,7 5,0 28,6 24,4 5,8 1,5
Female 100 34,0 5,8 29,7 22,1 5,5 2,9
Mi gration saldo
Male 100 34,7 6,5 26,3 24,3 6,0 2,2
Female 100 37,0 7,2 22,9 19,1 7,3 6,5
The tabulated data show that among men migrant specialists with higher professional education and incomplete higher. Among the migrants with secondary vocational and general education such gender differentiation is not fixed. In general, the migration flows in North Ossetia's population are characterized by relatively high levels of education. Since the Republic in recent
23
years has a negative migration balance, such a progressive structure of migrants adversely affect its employment potential.
Statistical analysis of the magnitude and direction of migration flows is one of the stages of regional migration policy. The next step is a comprehensive study of the factors and causes conditional on the direction and intensity of migration flows.
References
1. Migration of North Ossetia - Alania in 2014. Stat. Newsletter. Vladikavkaz, 2015.
2. Migration of North Ossetia - Alania in 2008. Stat. Newsletter. Vladikavkaz, 2009.
Литература
1. Миграция населения РСО - Алания в 2014 году. Стат. бюллетень. Владикавказ, 2015.
2. Миграция населения РСО - Алания в 2008 году. Стат. бюллетень. Владикавказ, 2009.
February, 29, 2016
