Научная статья на тему 'Сравнительный анализ рынка беспилотных воздушных судов в России и Китае'

Сравнительный анализ рынка беспилотных воздушных судов в России и Китае Текст научной статьи по специальности «Экономика и бизнес»

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Ключевые слова
Беспилотный летательный аппарат (БПЛА) / беспилотная авиационная система (БАС) / беспилотные воздушные суда / авиационная промышленность / система управления эксплуатацией беспилотных летательных аппаратов (БЛА) / перспективы развития БПЛА. / Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) / Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) / aerial drones / aviation industry / Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Operation Management System (UOM) / prospects for the development of UAVs.

Аннотация научной статьи по экономике и бизнесу, автор научной работы — Муратова А.

Планирование устойчивого развития транспорта и мобильности, а также использование возобновляемых источников энергии приобретают все большее значение в связи с трансформацией транспортного и энергетического секторов во всем мире. Разработка и внедрение соответствующих стратегий и мер в области устойчивых и интеллектуальных технологий, стандартов и правил на национальном и глобальном уровнях представляет собой серьезную задачу для международного сообщества. В мире стремительно растет число частных и коммерческих беспилотных летательных аппаратов в воздушном пространстве. Беспилотные летательные аппараты используются в самых разных областях, например для наблюдения и обследования объектов инфраструктуры, доставки медикаментов в городах, решения логистических и распределительных задач в труднодоступных сельских районах. В статье анализируется развитие рынка беспилотной индустрии в России и Китае. При подготовке работы использовались следующие методы исследования: анализ трудов российских и зарубежных ученых по вопросам развития беспилотных летательных аппаратов, методы логических построений, обобщения, аналогии, сравнения, статистики, системного и ситуационного анализа.

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Comparative analysis of the market for unmanned aerial vehicles in Russia and China

Sustainable transport and mobility planning and the use of renewable energies are becoming increasingly important in the wake of the transformation of the transport and energy sectors worldwide. The development and implementation of corresponding strategies and measures in the realm of sustainable and intelligent technologies, standards and regulations at national and global level represent a major challenge for the international community. The deployment of private and commercially operated drones in the airspace is rapidly in-creasing worldwide. Aerial drones are used in a wide range of applications, such as surveillance and inspection of infrastructures, delivery of medical supplies in cities, and logistics and distribution tasks in inaccessible rural areas. The article examines analyzes market development of drone industry in Russia and China. In preparing this work, the following research methods were used: analysis of the works of Russian and foreign scientists on the development of unmanned aerial vehicles, methods of logical constructions, generalization, analogies, comparison, statistics, system and situational analysis.

Текст научной работы на тему «Сравнительный анализ рынка беспилотных воздушных судов в России и Китае»

Сравнительный анализ рынка беспилотных воздушных судов в России и Китае

Comparative analysis of the market for unmanned aerial vehicles in Russia and China

Муратова А.

Студент 1 курса магистратуры , факультет экономических наук, Санкт-Петербургский государственный университет,

Россия, Санкт-Петербург e-mail: muratova-anna@bk. ru

Muratova A.

1st year master student, faculty of economic science, Saint-Petersburg State University, Russia, Saint-Petersburg e-mail: muratova-anna@bk.ru

Аннотация.

Планирование устойчивого развития транспорта и мобильности, а также использование возобновляемых источников энергии приобретают все большее значение в связи с трансформацией транспортного и энергетического секторов во всем мире. Разработка и внедрение соответствующих стратегий и мер в области устойчивых и интеллектуальных технологий, стандартов и правил на национальном и глобальном уровнях представляет собой серьезную задачу для международного сообщества.

В мире стремительно растет число частных и коммерческих беспилотных летательных аппаратов в воздушном пространстве. Беспилотные летательные аппараты используются в самых разных областях, например для наблюдения и обследования объектов инфраструктуры, доставки медикаментов в городах, решения логистических и распределительных задач в труднодоступных сельских районах. В статье анализируется развитие рынка беспилотной индустрии в России и Китае. При подготовке работы использовались следующие методы исследования: анализ трудов российских и зарубежных ученых по вопросам развития беспилотных летательных аппаратов, методы логических построений, обобщения, аналогии, сравнения, статистики, системного и ситуационного анализа.

Annotation.

Sustainable transport and mobility planning and the use of renewable energies are becoming increasingly important in the wake of the transformation of the transport and energy sectors worldwide. The development and implementation of corresponding strategies and measures in the realm of sustainable and intelligent technologies, standards and regulations at national and global level represent a major challenge for the international community.

The deployment of private and commercially operated drones in the airspace is rapidly in-creasing worldwide. Aerial drones are used in a wide range of applications, such as surveillance and inspection of infrastructures, delivery of medical supplies in cities, and logistics and distribution tasks in inaccessible rural areas. The article examines analyzes market development of drone industry in Russia and China. In preparing this work, the following research methods were used: analysis of the works of Russian and foreign scientists on the development of unmanned aerial vehicles, methods of logical constructions, generalization, analogies, comparison, statistics, system and situational analysis.

Ключевые слова: Беспилотный летательный аппарат (БПЛА), беспилотная авиационная система (БАС), беспилотные воздушные суда, авиационная промышленность, система управления эксплуатацией беспилотных летательных аппаратов (БЛА), перспективы развития БПЛА.

Key words: Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV), Unmanned Aerial System (UAS), aerial drones, aviation industry, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Operation Management System (UOM), prospects for the development of UAVs.

The application of unmanned aerial systems for transportation is attracting increasing attention. Despite rapid progress in automating the initial stages of supply chains (sorting, packaging, loading), the delivery process is still poorly automated, especially in the last mile. Robots at this stage remain expensive and low-performing, but the courier is still efficient. However, further growth in the number of couriers is limited by the shortage of workers, so the level of delivery automation will only continue to grow. One of the likely solutions in this situation may be the use of UAVs to solve transportation problems.

Currently, pilot delivery projects have been launched in a number of foreign countries, and the first experiments have been carried out in Russia. While UAVs carry out delivery primarily according to the point-to-point scheme, operator actions may be required both at the beginning and at the end of the route. In some cases, the end point is a drone port, which is an interface for interaction with the recipient of the order. However, complex route deliveries are still beyond the scope of experimentation, which is partly due to regulatory regulation and partly to technical limitations.

The purpose of this report is to assess the market potential of UAVs in Russia and China.

The relevance of the study of the market for unmanned aerial vehicles in Russia and China is determined by the high activity of UAV developers in Russia. Developments in the Chinese drone market are particularly significant, as it is one of the world's dominant markets in terms of technology and innovation. To better grasp the developments in the Chinese drone market and industry and to be able to assess the future potential of this sector and use their best practices for integration into Russian aerial drones industry, an analysis of the Chinese drone market is needed.

Supportive policy and regulatory frameworks at national and local levels, China's technological leadership in unmanned aerial concepts, and the consistent rise in domestic demand for drones are strongly driving the growth of the Chinese drone industry.

The lessons China is learning from the adopted measures, ranging from the Chinese government's high investments into the drone industry, over the high pace of adoption of innovative technologies and the implementation of pilot projects, to the creation of favorable regulatory frameworks in selected pilot regions («Real Laboratory» Shenzhen), will significantly influence the shaping of innovative aviation in the future. Against the backdrop of the advancing digitalization of transport and mobility worldwide, notably in China, increased attention must be paid to the rapid developments in the future topic of drones. In mutual dialogue, potentials for possible cooperation between China and Russia may be explored and mutually beneficial learning strengthened.

The objectives of the work were to collect, summarize and analyze information about the capacity of the UAV market; identification, updating, generalization and analysis of current and future information on the state of target market segments in the financial and economic aspect; overview of the main participants and manufacturers of the drone industry.

The objects of research are the target market segments:

1. Market segment for the development and production of unmanned aircraft systems and their components intended for the transportation of goods;

2. Segment of the transport services market - transportation of goods using unmanned aerial vehicles.

The study was conducted based on the collection of data from open sources, including websites of UAV manufacturers, websites of operators, service consumers, media reports and government agencies, as well as interviews with companies.

Thanks to the rapid development in the field of control of unmanned aerial vehicles, many monographs have been written in recent years containing the basic concepts of this area of research.

Unmanned helicopter technology is a current direction in the development of modern aviation science and technology. An initial overview of the UAV market in Russia is well presented in the work of V.S. Moiseev. «Unmanned aerial vehicles: Russian history of creation and modern classification». The work provides a brief description of the creation of unmanned aerial vehicles in the USSR and the Russian Federation in the period from the late 20s of the last centuries to the present and proposes its modern classification [1]. This work gives us a good introduction to the UAV industry from a technical point of view, but it does not provide enough information for economic analysis.

At the end of the year, the Aeronext Association publishes an analytical report for the unmanned aircraft market in Russia. These reports provide an analysis of the unmanned aircraft market in Russia and its future forecasts, an overview of a set of measures for the development of unmanned aircraft approved at the Russian state level, as well as

prospects for the development of the industry. This report is valuable for its practical significance, since it was prepared on the basis of a questionnaire and oral survey of about 15 leading Russian enterprises in the unmanned aerial systems industry [2].

Also, an analytical study «Regulation of the use of UAS: Experience from China» was carried out to the member of the Russian-Chinese Guild of Commerce LLC Glory Air (member of the Aeronext Association) in order to adapt the experience of China in the field of UAS when implementing a cluster of unmanned aircraft systems of the Republic Bashkortostan. Author of the study: chief analyst of the Russian-Chinese Guild of Commerce (SOVED), leading researcher at the Institute of the Far East of the Russian Academy of Sciences, candidate of legal sciences P. V. Troshchinsky [3]. This report provides a systematic overview of China's UAS market regulation from a policy and technical perspective. But, unfortunately, this report provides virtually no analysis of the size of the UAS market in China.

China is quite cautious in publishing data on the development of unmanned aircraft in the country. Confirmed data can be found on the official website of the Civil Aviation Administration of China. Forecasts for the growth of the UAS market in China and development prospects are well presented in the work of Schroth, L. «Infographic I Drone Market Size and Forecast 2020-2025» [4]. This infographic gives an overview of the growth of the drone market size in 2020-2025, broken down by region, including Asia. This data is especially valuable for comparative analysis of the growth rate of the global drone market. We can see China's dominance in the unmanned aircraft industry.

When it comes to the terminology of unmanned aerial objects, there is a large variety of terms that many experts use interchangeably, under the assumption that the different names or acronyms describe the same object. Apart from the notion of aerial drones, these include terms such as UAV, UAS or remotely piloted aircraft systems (RPAS), which are considered to be the most common acronyms. In addition, there are national definitions, where the name is translated into the respective national language [5].

However, a detailed examination shows that there are in fact specific differences in the definition of the aforementioned terms. In contrast to a UAS, the term UAV in its most basic form refers only to the autonomous flying object itself and not the entire system [6]. The Commission of the European Union (EU), in its Commission Implementing Regulation EU 2019/947 [7], defines the concept of UAS as «...an unmanned aircraft and the equipment to control it remotely». Such equipment may include a ground control structure, a communication infrastructure required to send, relay, and receive data, as well as image and video analysis components [6, 7]. In analogy to the European understanding of drone-related terms, Chinese regulators use the terms UAS and UAV in their normative documents, with UAV in the Chinese definition denoting an aircraft managed by a control station (including remotely piloted and autonomous concepts, but not radio-controlled model aircrafts), also referred to as a remotely piloted aircraft (RPA). The UAS concept (also called RPAS in China), refers to the unmanned aircraft, the associated control station, the required command and control data connection and the approved system, consisting of all other components specified in the type design [8]. This research uses the terms drone, UAV and UAS synonymously.

In recent years, UAV have become of pivotal importance to many individuals, businesses, and government organizations. It has been realized that drones have many useful capabilities and since the physical limits in the ultra-low-and low-altitude airspace provide great flexibility for the use of UAV, these aerial vehicles cover a multitude of areas in which they can be applied. At the same time, this diversity of possible applications is leading to a large complexity of the drone market, especially with the introduction of new innovations that continuously unlock more fields of UAV use.

Table 1 shows a selection of drone applications in today's UAV market according to their general purpose. For instance, drones are deployed for camera recording (e. g. in archaeology or agriculture), for entertainment purposes in the film industry or in private contexts, for risk mitigation and avoidance (e. g. during maintenance work, fire-fighting operations, etc.), to enhance accessibility in, for example, rural or inaccessible areas (e. g. rural and express deliveries) or

to increase efficiency and productivity in mobility, disaster control or agriculture.

Table 1. Deployment of UAV in Different Application Areas [9, 10]

№ Purpose of Application Example Areas of Application

1 Camera Disaster Rescue, Agriculture, Archaeology

2 Entertainment Videography, Lightshows, Private Use

3 Risk Avoidance Infrastructure Inspection (e. g. High Voltage Power Lines), Firefighting, Emission Level Measurement, Military Use

4 Accessibility Rural Delivery, Express Delivery, Congested Streets, Usable 24/7

5 Efficiency Agriculture, Port Operations, Emergency Services

This presentation of applications is non-exhaustive and not free of overlaps between the individual categories (e. g. a drone can be used for risk prevention, but at the same time also reach inaccessible regions by means of cameras).

Based on the above definitions of terms and different drone application areas, this research is mainly addressing the civil UAV industry and UAV market and a limited subset of its application scenarios, especially in the transport and logistics sector (along the application areas of accessibility and efficiency).

DEVELOPMENT STATUS OF RUSSIA'S DRONE INDUSTRY

Capacity and growth rates of the UAS market and individual segments in Russia

The global UAS market is developing rapidly. A comparison of a number of sources shows that the achieved market volume already exceeds about USD 20 billion per year [11].

According to Drone Industry Insight estimates published in April 2022, the global market for the development and production of UAS and their components was already USD 26.3 billion in 2021 year. The company expects CAGR to be 9.4%, resulting in a market size of 41.3 billion USD by 2026 year. According to other estimates, the total global market for the development and production of UAS and their components is now USD 27.4 billion and is predicted that it could reach 58.4 billion USD by 2026 with an average annual growth of 16.4% [12, 13].

In a study by the Center for Strategic Research «State and development trends of the market for unmanned aircraft systems in the world and in Russia» (2022), the volume of the Russian market for the development and production of UAS and their components is estimated at 2% of the world.

According to BEAC estimates, the average annual growth rate of the UAS market in Russia over the past 4 years amounted to 35%. In total, about 100 thousand UAVs were sold in the country during this period, 80% of them were foreign-made.

Figure 1. Estimation of the global market volume for the development and production of UAS and their components,

billion USD [11]

In 2021, the volume of the Russian UAS market, according to the Aeronext Association, amounted to less than 1% of the global market - about 11 billion rubles. Main areas of use: mining industries, construction, agriculture and entertainment.

Considering global trends, rapid growth in the use of UAVs in the country is expected in the near future.

According to Skolkovo Ventures estimates, by 2025 the volume of the market for services provided using UAS could reach 50 billion rubles, and by 2030 - about 120 billion rubles [14].

Ernst&Young estimates show that the potential effect of using UAVs in Russia exceeds one billion USD per year. In economic terms, the promising areas are: construction, agriculture, geological exploration, infrastructure monitoring, healthcare and cargo transportation.

120

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Figure 2. Volume of the Russian market for services using UAS, billion rubles [14]

■ TRANSPORTATION ■ EMERGENCY RESPONSE

■ CONSTRUCTION ■ ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING

■ AGRICULTURE

Figure 3. Assessment of the structure of UAV use in various sectors of the economy, % [11]

According to estimates from The Brainy Insights, the global UAV transportation services market is expected to grow from USD 213 million in 2021 to USD 7168.8 million by 2030, at a CAGR of 47.8% over 2022-2030 year [15].

Business Research Company projects the industry to grow from USD 2.37 billion to USD 3.49 billion in 2022, and then with the advent of clear regulations and certification for beyond visual line of sight UAS rise to USD 18.77 billion by 2026 or a compound annual growth rate of 52.3% [16].

At the same time, according to estimates by Zakria Qadir and others, in the total volume of work performed for various sectors of the economy, the share of transport services - cargo transportation using UAVs is about 44%.

Main players: description of products and developments

1. NPP Radar mms JSC

NPP Radar mms JSC is a manufacturer of radio-electronic systems and complexes, precision instrumentation, software, and a system integrator of on-board radio-electronic equipment.

NPP Radar mms JSC produces unmanned helicopter systems of the VT series, as well as target payloads, including audio warning equipment, lighting equipment, release and spraying devices.

In September 2017, NPP Radar mms JSC, together with specialists from Gazpromneft-Snabzhenie LLC and Gazpromneft-Noyabrskneftegaz LLC, for the first-time transported cargo to a remote field using a UAV. A Breeze helicopter weighing 37 kg of the MBPV-37 complex transported a cargo weighing 4.5 kg to the Pogranichnoye field. The aircraft took off from the enterprise's central base in Noyabrsk and covered 40 km to the target in 42 minutes, with an average flight speed of 40 km/h.

In November 2018, in the Samara region, in partnership with Sberbank PJSC, the company, for the first time in the Russian Federation, carried out cash collection using UAS in a hard-to-reach populated area. The total number of flights performed was 8, during which 72 kg of cargo was transported. The total length of the route was 22.5 km, and the average transportation time was 1 hour per flight, 17 minutes of flight. Transportation was carried out in a certified special container. The UAV VT 45 was used for transportation.

After the successful implementation of pilot projects, the company NPP Radar mms JSC in September 2022 made the first official commercial transportation in Russia using a UAV in partnership with Gazpromneft-Snabzhenie LLC. The cargo for the customer, weighing 80 kg, was transported to the site of the East Messoyakha field from the village of Tazovsky (Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug).

The UAV with cargo flew more than 120 km along a given trajectory to the landing point, the cargo was picked up, and the device returned to the take-off point in the village of Tazovsky, having flown another more than 120 km. The one-way flight, which took place at an altitude of about 200 meters, considering takeoff and landing, took just under an hour and a half, while the UAV was moving at a speed of about 100 km/h. For transportation, the UAV VT 440 was used a multi-purpose helicopter-type aircraft with a maximum take-off weight of 450 kg, which can carry a payload weighing up to 100 kg.

Two UAVs VT 440, produced by NPP Radar mms JSC, were certified in May 2022 under the experimental legal regime (EPR) according to the requirements of the Federal Air Transport Agency and received tail numbers.

2. Aeromax LLC

Aeromax LLC is a developer and manufacturer of aircraft and helicopter unmanned aerial vehicles, payloads, software for data collection and processing, data collection, processing and visualization, integration of digital solutions with geospatial data.

Aeromax LLC has developed a line of UAVs with helicopter-type internal combustion engines with a load capacity from 50 kg to 300 kg.

- SH-350, which has a flight range of 450 km, flight duration of 5 hours and speed of 150 km/s. Load capacity

is 50 kg.

- SH-450, whose flight range is 550 km, duration - 6 hours, speed - 200 km/h. Load capacity is 100 kg.

- The load capacity of SH-750 is 300 kg. The cargo is placed in specialized transport containers and removed after the UAV lands.

3. TIBER LLC

TIBER LLC develops, produces, integrates and provides after-sales support for unique automatic control systems for unmanned vertical take-off and aircraft-type systems, lighter-than-air vehicles, and surface high-speed objects. The equipment produced has an industrial, hermetically sealed design and an extended temperature range.

In September 2020, TIBER LLC together with Gazpromneft-Snabzhenie LLC, implemented a project at the East Messoyakhskoye oil and gas condensate field (Gydan Peninsula, Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug) to test a UAV designed for transporting heavy and oversized cargo in Arctic conditions.

The helicopter-type UAV KAGU-150 successfully completed several flights and transported material and technical resources to the oil field. UAV controlled from the company's logistics base in the village. Tazovsky successfully covered a 130-kilometer route and transported a 150-kilogram cargo to the field.

The Tiber KAGU-150 UAV develops a cruising speed of up to 160 km/h, and with a take-off weight of 500 kg, it has a payload capacity of 150 kg.

4. Copter Express LLC

Copter Express LLC (COEX) is a developer and manufacturer of UAVs and software for their autonomy. The company develops and produces UAVs for autonomous monitoring of territories, transportation of lightweight cargo and other missions.

The Copter Express LLC company (part of the Gaskar Group) offers the Pelican Mini UAV for automatic air transportation of small-sized cargo weighing up to 2 kg. The device reaches speeds of up to 75 km/h, the flight range does not exceed 5 km, and the flight time is 10 minutes.

A durable and capacious carbon container that meets international VDA standards is attached to the UAV. This container can accommodate any parcel up to 285x190x145 mm in size. For example, this could be a standard Russian Post box of size S, a medical thermal container TM-1, capable of carrying tests, small gadgets, documents, food and drinks.

5. Russian Post JSC

In November 2021, Aeromax LLC, in partnership with Russian Post JSC and the government of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug), conducted successful tests of cargo transportation using an unmanned aircraft.

The test flights involved the use of a helicopter-type UAV SH-350 with an internal combustion engine, which made several flights along the route Salekhard - Aksarka - Salekhard (total length of the route 53 km) with a weight and size dummy cargo. The SH-350 has a maximum take-off weight of 350 kg and a flight duration of up to 5 hours. The volume of transported cargo can reach 100 kg, the flight length can be up to 150 km with a cruising speed of 90 km/h.

However, the experiment in the city was unsuccessful. The reason for this was interference created by Wi-Fi points, which led to a collision between the aircraft and a building. Already in open areas, the flight was successful.

In 2022, Russian Post JSC launched an experimental network for unmanned cargo transportation, including 48 routes in four regions - the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, the Kamchatka Territory, the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug and the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug. According to Russian Post JSC estimates, the use of BAS will increase the average speed of logistics on the regional route network by up to 2 times, will allow in the future to increase the volume of cargo traffic by more than 10 times and, at the same time, reduce the cost of logistics services by up to 50%. It is planned that the pilot project will be implemented until 2024 inclusive. As a result of the experiment, it will be possible to apply cargo transportation practices throughout the country.

DEVELOPMENT STATUS OF CHINA'S DRONE INDUSTRY

Market Development

At present, China is the second largest drone market in the world after the United States, with a projected revenue of around EUR 13.5 billion in 2024.

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Five-Year Plan for the Development of Civil Aviation also shows how the innovative development of drones will be advanced in the future. The primary targets of this new development plan are [17]:

- Active expansion of service areas: promoting the development of drone applications; supporting drone services in postal express logistics, urban public services, emergency rescue and public health; promoting drone applications and integration in urban, rural, and remote areas to modernize agriculture and rural regions.

- Improvement of regulation and standardization system: establishment of drone regulations, classification and management methods, management platforms and guiding mechanisms, and a sound industry management system; formulation of (international) group standards for drone ap plication areas and involvement of private enterprises.

- Innovation of UAV industry ecology: continuous promotion of pilot regions, research activities, risk assessment and technology verification; construction of innovative platforms and agglomerations focusing on the development of the entire drone industry chain.

As the statistics on civil drone market applications (on an industrial scale) in China in 2020 in Figure 4 illustrate, only roughly 1.2% of all UAV implementations in China are operated for transport and logistics purposes (express logistics). The lion's share, however, is accounted for by applications in geographical surveying and mapping (29.3%), followed by agriculture, forestry, and plant protection (24.9%) and inspection tasks with a share of 14.2% [10].

The Chinese drone industry is in the stage of a very dynamic and rapid development, driven by, among other things, the maturity of satellite positioning systems, the continuous improvement of electronic and radio-controlled technologies and innovations in UAV multirotor development. In recent years, there has been a proliferation of innovative companies and start-ups in the Chinese UAV market producing drones and components for commercial, industrial, and military purposes. China's technology leadership, alongside rising domestic demand and a supportive policy and regulatory framework is strongly propelling the growth of the drone industry in China [9, 10].

Figure 5 describes the size of drone markets worldwide in terms of revenue generated and provides a forecast

154 %

■ Agriculture, Forestry and Plant Protection

■ Inspection

■ Geographical Surveying and Mapping

■ Security Monitoring

Fire and Disaster Control

Express Logistics

Others

Figure 4. Application Areas of Industrial Drones (as per Scale) in China in 2020 [10]

for 2025.

Drone Market Size and

HI M.....I

2019 2020 2021 2022

Figure 5. Drone Market Size and Forecast from 2020 to 2025 [4]

Looking at Asia as a whole, the market is projected to grow strongly in the coming years with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of approximately 15.5% between 2020 (revenue of USD 8.62 billion (EUR 7.55 billion)) and 2025 (revenue of USD 17.89 billion (EUR 15.13 billion)). By 2025, the CAGR of the European (revenue of USD 9.86 billion (EUR 8.34 billion)) and North American market (revenue of USD 11.82 billion (EUR 9.99 billion)) will be 13.5% and 11.3%, respectively. Forecasts show that the global UAV market will also register a strong growth with a CAGR of 13.8 % between 2020 and 2025. The total revenue of the entire drone industry in 2025 is estimated at more than USD 40 billion (EUR 33.8 billion) [4].

China alone is currently the second largest drone market in the world, behind the United States as the leading market (Europe in third place). It is expected to close the gap with the United States by 2024 and generate a revenue of around USD 16 billion (EUR 13.5 billion [4, 9]. Initially, drones in China were mainly used for military purposes. However, in recent years, the development of the UAV industry has accelerated and gradually extended from the military to the civilian sector (consumer and industrial UAV). In the field of civil drones, China is the world leader and the most important industrial base globally. China's UAV research and development enterprises have developed rapidly over the years and have taken a better competitive position in the international market [10, 18]. The total volume of drones in China is expected to increase to more than three million units by 2025 [9]. As the biggest manufacturer in the global drone industry, China is also the world's largest exporter of civil consumer drones by revenue generated and export levels have steadily grown over the past few years. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China (GACC) in 2021, the export of civil consumer drones from China in 2020 amounted to about CNY 23.7 billion, or EUR 3.0 billion (CNY 18.7 billion (EUR 2.4 billion) in 2017) [18].

Drone Industry Stakeholders and Manufacturers

China's UAV sector is shaped and influenced by a wide range of stakeholders. These include policymakers, the industry and private sector, as well as drone users. Policymakers, legislators, and decision-makers in authorities at national and local levels are setting the appropriate policy and regulatory frameworks to ensure that drones can be operated properly and safely and to promote the overall development of the Chinese UAV industry. The private sector is engaged

within the established framework, producing drones, components, and software solutions for distinct user groups, including individuals, enterprises, institutions, and governmental organizations. This section will mainly focus on the industrial environment and the major players in the drone sector.

The Chinese drone industry comprises numerous companies and start-ups pushing innovative UAV technologies with the aim of evolving China into a lead market and leading supplier. While the drone market in China is dominated by only a limited number of (also globally significant) manufacturers, industry estimates point to around 70,000 registered companies in China manufacturing UAV, producing components, and offering drone soft-ware solutions [19].

Located in the Greater Bay Area, Shenzhen stands out as the true «Capital of Drones» in China [19-21], with Shenzhen-based global player DJI responsible for more than 70% of the world's consumer drone market, ranking first among civil drone manufacturers world-wide [10]. Shenzhen, which has hosted the annual Drone World Congress since 2017, also appears to be a highly favorable location for UAV enterprises in China due to its early adoption of regulations to promote an attractive regulatory environment that supports innovations in the UAV industry. Such measures include, for example, the adoption of a local legal framework for mini and light civil drones, as well as special funding schemes that stimulate emerging UAV companies through direct support and risk compensation [22-24]. Through these programmers, the local government supports more than 200 drone-related initiatives every year [22]. Moreover, companies can benefit from partnerships with various stakeholders, such as scientific institutes, the military or energy companies. At the same time, Shenzhen not only provides easy access to drone suppliers and raw materials, but also opens up a pool of creative talents to companies [19]. This creates cross-cutting value, consolidates Shenzhen's position as a UAV knowledge center and creates major industry players, which are briefly described below.

DJI is currently the leading company in drone manufacturing with a global consumer and commercial drone market share of more than 70%, ahead of Intel (United States) with 4.1% market share and the Chinese manufacturer Yuneec (Chinese: ^M), which has a 3.6 % share of the global market [9]. DJI continues to set global technological standards with the introduction of highly innovative drone products that combine compact weight and high-end features. This can be attributed to, among other things, the company's innovation-driven R&D strategy (25% of all employees are working in R&D), low production costs, skilled personnel, and the ability to quickly respond to market needs [9, 22]. In 2012, the company launched its first consumer drone, making its UAV, previously exclusively available to professional users, accessible to the public [25]. This and the introduction of more advanced drones in the following years (e. g. with high-resolution camera systems) allowed the civil drone market to expand enormously. DJI's flight control systems, stabilizers and UAV cameras are all developed and produced by the company in-house. By the end of 2019, the company had filed over 11,300 patents [22]. From 2013 to 2017, sales doubled almost every year, and its industrial output exceeded USD 3.8 billion (EUR 3.4 billion) in 2019 [9]. In the future, the company plans to set another focus on electromobility and intelligent and automated driving with the foundation of the separate automotive division DJI Automotive [19].

Another global player, mainly in logistics and passenger transport, smart city management and entertainment (photography and media), is Guangzhou-based EHang. Valued at around USD 7 billion (EUR 5.9 billion) in February 2021, the company is working on battery-powered autonomous aerial vehicles (for electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL)) for use in smart cities. EHang became the first listed passenger drone company in December 2019 [19, 26]. EHang's mission is to make safe, autonomous, and environmentally friendly aerial mobility accessible to all by providing end-to- end solutions including hardware and software configuration, takeoff and landing platform set-up, and other operational services. In addition, considering rising personnel costs and the rapid development of smart logistics, EHang is working on ways to meet the different requirements of various application scenarios in terms of flight range, loading, takeoff and landing methods, helping to create a more open, intelligent, and efficient air logistics platform [27].

EHang, which competes with companies such as Munich-based Lilium, Airbus, Boeing, Hyundai, and General

Motors, has already completed a number of demonstration flights. For example, in January 2021, EHang successfully carried 36 passengers through a test area in Guangdong with its first autonomous passenger UAV EH2016. In February

2021, the first test flights were conducted in the Chinese capital Beijing [20, 28]. With the formal adoption of the «Special Conditions for EH216-S AAV Type Certification» by the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) in February

2022, another milestone was reached. These special conditions form the basis for the compliance and safety of EH216-S drones, including flight performance, structures, design and construction, propulsion systems, systems and equipment, data link and ground control stations [29]. Nevertheless, regulatory hurdles, R&D costs and lagging infrastructure will continue to pose challenges for EHang in the future [19].

In parallel to the above-mentioned drone players active in the transport and mobility segment, there are several other important companies in China that develop drones mainly for use in the entertainment sector. The two companies High Great and Shenzhen Damoda (together with EHang) are among the big three Chinese companies in the entertainment sector [19]. High Great was founded in Shenzhen in 2014 and is, among others, Audi's partner for vehicle presentations. With fleets consisting of several thousand drones, High Great has already performed over 1,000 light shows in more than 200 cities worldwide [19, 30]. Shenzhen Damoda's headquarters are also located in Shenzhen. The company was founded in 2016 and focuses on the research and development of drone flight control systems and cluster formation technology. Shenzhen Damoda, which offers its light shows mainly for festivities, theme parks, advertising, and marketing, also features prominently at the most significant event in China, the annual nationally broadcasted Spring Festival Gala of China Central Television (CCTV). The company works closely with the two other Shenzhen-based enterprises BYD and Huawei on aerial advertising [19, 31].

Given the large number of players involved in the UAV supply chain and the size of the Chinese drone market, the rapidly growing UAV industry in China creates significant value for the Chinese economy. Against this backdrop, China has taken a strong interest in recent years to establish a well-functioning framework at the regional and national levels. This is to ensure the proper operation of UAV in China's airspace and thus enable the sustainable expansion and healthy development of this industry and market.

CONCLUSION

Based on the information received, information was systematized on the state of development of the Russian and Chinese markets for unmanned aircraft systems for transportation, including the main developments and products, and a comparison and analysis of qualitative and quantitative indicators of projects for the development, production and use of UAS was carried out.

As a globally dominant market for consumer and commercial drones and home to the most innovative UAV companies and start-ups, China, with its important center Shenzhen, is at the forefront of technological maturity of the drone industry. At the same time, digitalization in the Chinese transport sector is well advanced and, moreover, the entire drone supply chain is integrated at the domestic level. Some globally significant companies such as DJI are setting the pace in the global market through their high speed of innovation, leading to a technological advantage over their competitors. This indicates that the current rapid industry growth will be maintained in the future and may be further accelerated by disruptive technological innovations combined with a rising domestic demand for drones (especially driven by the logistics and delivery sector) [9].

The experience of China in the area under study is extremely successful and should be comprehensively studied by Russian science and practice. It is necessary to intensify bilateral contacts with the Chinese side for the possible use of their developments and understanding the mistakes made for the comprehensive development of UAS production in the Russian Federation.

To make the use of UAV in transport and logistics future-proof, a comprehensive and efficient administrative

system must be put in place to manage the increasing number of drones. At the same time, high-quality and wide-ranging communication must be ensured through 5G and big data technologies. With the support of these technologies, drone management systems will achieve full integration of manned and unmanned aviation. China has already taken an important step in the further development of domestic drone management with the demonstration and deployment of such systems.

For a comprehensive comparison of the markets for unmanned aerial vehicles, we need to research political and regulatory framework for drones in Russia and China.

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