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SPATIAL VARIATION IN THE GROWTH OF THE POPULATION OF THE GOVERNORATES OF IRAQ FOR THE PERIOD 2010-2020 AND ITS EXPECTATIONS FOR THE YEAR 2030 AD
DHEYAA JAAFAR ALNAJM
University of Kufa, Faculty of Arts, Department of Geography, Najaf, Iraq
Abstract
The research findings revealed that the province of Anbar boasts the largest area in Iraq, accounting for a significant proportion of the country's total area at 31.7%, whereas the province of Baghdad has the smallest area, representing only 1.0% of the total area. As for the population distribution, Baghdad Governorate has the highest percentage of inhabitants at 21.2%, while AlMuthanna Governorate has the lowest percentage, with a figure of 2.2%. Notably, the Iraqi population exhibited a growth rate of 2.1% during the period of 2010-2020 AD, with urban areas recording a higher growth rate of 2.3%, as opposed to rural areas that experienced a rate of 1.8%. The research further projected that the population of Iraq would reach approximately 49,675,379 by the year 2030, with an urban population of 35,214,703 and a rural population of 14,460,676.
Keywords: Iraqi population growth, urban areas, rural areas, expectations
INTRODUCTION
Population growth is one of the topics included in population studies, as all population societies are characterized by a dynamic nature due to the numerical increase or decrease in the population, and this increase and decrease is represented by the vital activities of the population, which are births that represent the positive factor towards increasing the size of the population, while deaths represent the negative factor towards decreasing The size of the population, as well as the migration factor, are among the factors that play an important role in the increase and decrease in the size of the population. It varies from one place to another and from one period to another according to the economic, political, and social conditions of the country in which the population lives and according to the population policy as well. Negative for population growth, as well as health and living conditions. Therefore, when studying population growth, it is required to know the size of the population during the study period and then data and information on the factors affecting population growth, which are births, deaths, and migration.
Researchers in Human Sciences, including geographers, rely on defining the problem (Question) and studying the problem is one of the recent trends in the science of geography. The problem raised in this research is represented by the following questions:
1- Does the numerical and relative distribution differ according to the environment of the governorates of Iraq?
2- Is there a discrepancy in the population growth rates according to the environment of the governorates of Iraq?
3- What are the future expectations of the population according to the environment for the governorates of Iraq for the year 2030 AD?
After the problem has been selected and identified, we put hypotheses that are preliminary answers to the problem. The hypothesis of this research came in the following formulas:
1- There is a spatial difference in the numerical and relative distribution of the population according to the environment of the governorates of Iraq.
2- Is there a clear spatial variation in population growth according to the environment in the governorates of Iraq?
3- The future population growth is heading towards an increase in the size of the Iraqi population for the year 2030 AD.
This research aims to know the numerical and relative distribution and population growth rates according to the environment in the governorates of Iraq, and then to know the future expectations of the population of these governorates for the year 2030 AD.
This research was based on the analysis of spatial relations, which is the basis in the science of geography and the description of the phenomenon in order to reach its causes and the factors that control it and draw conclusions for generalization. The spatial boundaries of this research are represented by the governorates of Iraq, whose astronomical location is determined between longitudes (38, 45) east from its west and longitude (48, 45) east from its east, and is confined between two latitudes (5, 29) north from its south and ( 22, 37) to the north, it passes in its northern borders, and a geographical location (Position), as it is located in the southwest of the continent of Asia, occupying the northeastern part of the Arab world, bordered by Iran to the east, Turkey to the north, Jordan and Syria to the west, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia to the south, and the spatial boundaries of the research are represented in Iraq by governorates (18) governorates, as shown in table (1). The temporal boundaries of this research extend in the period (2010-2020 AD) and the future expectations of the population according to the environment for the year 2030 AD were known.
Table (1) Area and percentage of Iraq's governorates
Area Rate Area km2 Governorate No.
8,6 37323 Nineveh 1
2,2 9679 Kirkuk 2
4,1 17685 Diyala 3
31,8 137808 Anbar 4
1,0 4555 Baghdad 5
1,2 5119 Babylon 6
1,2 5034 Karbala 7
3,9 17153 Wasit 8
5,6 24363 Salahaddin 9
6,6 28824 Najaf 10
1,9 8153 Qadisiyah 11
11,9 51740 Double 12
3,0 12900 Dhi Qar 13
3,7 16072 Maysan 14
4,4 19070 Basra 15
3,5 15074 Erbil 16
1,5 6553 Dohuk 17
3,9 17023 Sulaymaniyah 18
100 434128 Total
Source: Ministry of Planning, Central Statistical Organization, Annual Statistical Abstract for 2016, Chapter One, Normal Conditions, Table 1/1, p.1.
The population distribution is one of the important issues in which the relationship between the population and the land and their location emerge, and that the pattern of population distribution on the surface of the earth is a set of factors intertwined with each other. The distribution process is subject to continuous changes, and at the present time we notice a severe lack of focus because large proportions of the population are concentrated in cities with relatively limited areas, and that differences in distribution are also caused by population growth rates (Al-Saadi, 2014 AD, Part 1, p. 110) and among the types of distribution is: 1- Numerical distribution
Numerical distribution means the distribution of the population in the area over which they live, and this distribution represents the population's connection to the resources available in each region, and that the resources, whether natural or human, are characterized by change in quantity and quality, so the numerical distribution of the population changes accordingly in time and space (Al-Kitab, 2015, p. 260). The population distribution map is one of the most important maps in geographical studies because it is a mirror that reflects all geographical elements. Considering this,
most studies include a detailed study of population distribution, for the purpose of contributing to development plans in a scientifically correct way and a better life for each member of the population, and this is what human development aims at (the hard 2018 AD, p. 62). 1-1 The numerical distribution for the year 2010
From table (2), the population of urban Iraq has reached (22,418,081) people. Baghdad governorate has the highest urban population, amounting to (5,995,812) people. Al-Muthanna Governorate has the lowest urban population, amounting to (306,610) people. The population of rural Iraq has reached (10,071,891) people, Nineveh Governorate recorded the highest number of rural residents, amounting to (1,249,778) people, and Maysan Governorate recorded the lowest number of rural residents, amounting to (261,312) people. 6,878,039) people, and Al-Muthanna Governorate recorded the lowest population, which is (700,818) people. 1 -2 The numerical distribution for the year 2020
From table (2), the population of urban Iraq has reached (28,052,250) people, the Baghdad governorate recorded the highest urban population, amounting to (7,488,087) people, and the Muthanna governorate recorded the lowest urban population, amounting to (398,334) people, and the population of rural Iraq has reached (12,097,923) people, Nineveh Governorate recorded the highest number of rural residents, amounting to (1,546,083) people, and Maysan Governorate recorded the lowest number of rural residents, amounting to (306,272) people, and the population of Iraq has reached (40,150,173) people, Baghdad Governorate recorded the highest population, amounting to ( (8,558,625) people, and Al-Muthanna Governorate recorded the lowest population, amounting to (857,662) people.
Table (2) The numerical distribution of the population according to the environment in the governorates of Iraq for the years (2010 - 2020 AD)
2020 2010 No.
Population Rural Population Urban Population Population Rural Population Urban Population
3928215 1546083 2382132 3187945 1249778 1938167 1
1682809 438928 1243881 1360442 385450 974992 2
1724238 875888 848350 1406592 731992 674600 3
1865818 932601 933217 1521829 784366 737463 4
8558625 1070538 7488087 6878039 882226 5995812 5
2174783 1124927 1049856 1774539 937034 837505 6
1283484 425313 858171 1039640 348245 691395 7
1452007 578123 873884 1179987 496295 683692 8
1680015 922448 757567 1372453 765532 606922 9
1549788 442977 1106811 1253084 362346 890739 10
1359642 580741 778901 1105604 481330 624274 11
857662 459318 395334 700818 394209 306610 12
2206514 790243 1416271 1789789 663558 1126231 13
1171802 306272 865530 946981 261312 685670 14
3063059 575401 2487658 2468328 494692 1973636 15
1953341 327201 1626140 1572154 264536 1307618 16
1361211 353214 1007997 1100187 293008 807178 17
2277170 347707 1929463 1831560 275982 1555578 18
40150173 12097923 28052250 32489972 10071891 22418081 Total
Source: Ministry of Planning, Central Statistical Organization, Annual Statistical Abstract for 2013, Part Two, Population and Labor Force Statistics, Table (2), p. 11.
- Ministry of Planning, Central Statistical Organization, Annual Statistical Abstract for the year 2021, Part Two, Population and Labor Force Statistics, Table (1), p. 10. 2- Relative distribution
The study of the relative distribution of the population of any region according to the governorate is the most widespread and used method, as it shows the percentage of what afflicts the governorate from the total population. The population varies between the different administrative units, so the proportional distribution is useful in knowing the relative weight of the population for each region (Al-Najm, 2016, p. 193).
1-2 - Percentage distribution for the year 2010
From Table (3), the highest percentage of the urban population was in Baghdad Governorate, amounting to (26.7%), and the lowest percentage of the urban population was in Al-Muthanna Governorate, which amounted to (1.4%). The highest percentage of the rural population was in Nineveh Governorate, which amounted to (12.1%), and the lowest percentage The rural population is in Maysan Governorate, which is (2.6%), while the highest percentage of the Iraqi population is in Baghdad Governorate, which is (21.2%), and the lowest percentage of the Iraqi population is in AlMuthanna Governorate, which is (2.2%), as shown in Maps (1).
2-2 - Percentage distribution for the year 2020
From table (3), the highest percentage of the urban population was in Baghdad Governorate, which amounted to (26.7%), and the lowest percentage of the urban population was in Al-Muthanna Governorate, which amounted to (1.3%). The highest percentage of the rural population was in Nineveh Governorate, which amounted to (12.8%), and the lowest percentage of the rural population In Maysan Governorate, which is (2.5%), while at the level of Iraq, the highest percentage is in Baghdad Governorate, which is (21.3%), and the lowest percentage is in AlMuthanna Governorate, which is (2.1%), as shown in Maps (1).
Table (3) The relative distribution of the population according to the environment in the governorates of Iraq for the years (2010 AD and 2020 AD)
2020 2010 No.
Population Rural Population Urban Population Population Rural Population Urban Population
9.8 12.8 8.5 9.8 12.1 8.6 1
4.2 3.6 4.4 4.2 3.8 4.3 2
4.3 7.2 3.0 4.3 7.4 3.1 3
4.7 7.7 3.3 4.7 7.8 3.2 4
21.3 8.9 26.7 21.2 8.8 26.7 5
5.4 9.3 3.7 5.5 9.3 3.7 6
3.2 3.5 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.1 7
3.6 4.8 3.1 3.6 4.9 3.1 8
4.2 7.6 2.7 4.2 7.6 2.7 9
3.9 3.7 4.0 3.9 3.6 4.0 10
3.4 4.8 2.8 3.4 4.8 2.8 11
2.1 3.8 1.3 2.2 3.9 1.4 12
5.5 6.5 5.1 5.5 6.7 5.0 13
2.8 2.5 3.1 2.9 2.6 3.1 14
7.6 4.8 8.9 7.6 4.9 8.8 15
4.9 2.7 5.8 4.8 2.7 5.8 16
3.4 2.9 3.6 3.4 2.9 3.6 17
5.7 2.9 6.9 5.6 2.7 7 18
100 100 100 100 100 100 Total
Map (1) The relative distribution of the population according to the environment in the governorates of Iraq for the years (2010 AD and 2020 AD)
It is the change in population size during different periods of time. Population decline is negative growth and population increase is growth (The Multilingual Demographic Dictionary, p. 132). Population growth in a positive direction is one of the most prominent demographic phenomena characteristics of the modern era, as it represents an important challenge to humanity, especially developing countries whose population is increasing at a high annual rate, causing economic and social problems and pressure on natural and environmental resources (Al-Kitab, 2021, p. 32). From Table (4), the growth rate of the urban population in Iraq has reached (2.3), with Muthanna Governorate recording the highest growth rate at (2.7), and Nineveh and Sulaymaniyah governorates recording a growth rate of (2.1) for each of them, and the growth rate of the population of rural Iraq has reached (1.8) The province of Sulaymaniyah recorded the highest growth rate, which was (2.3), and the province of Kirkuk recorded the lowest growth rate, which was (1.3). Dohuk, Sulaymaniyah) has a growth rate of (2.2) for each governorate, and each of the governorates (Wasit, Salah al-Din, and Muthanna) recorded the lowest growth rate, amounting to (2.0) for each governorate, as shown in maps (2).
Table (4) The spatial distribution of the population growth rate according to the environment in the governorates of Iraq for the period (2010-2020 AD)_
Population Rural Population Urban Population No.
2.1 2.2 2.1 1
2.1 1.3 2.5 2
2.1 1.8 2.3 3
2.1 1.7 2.4 4
2.2 2 2.2 5
2.1 1.8 2.3 6
2.2 2 2.2 7
2.0 1.5 2.5 8
2.0 1.9 2.2 9
2.2 2 2.2 10
2.1 1.9 2.2 11
2.0 1.5 2.7 12
2.1 1.8 2.3 13
2.2 1.6 2.4 14
2.2 1.5 2.3 15
2.2 2.1 2.2 16
2.2 1.9 2.2 17
2.2 2.3 2.1 18
2.1 1.8 2.3 Total
Source: Based on Table (2) and equation:
r =
— - 1 ) x 100 po
Where: r = growth rate, pt = last census, po = first census, t = number of years
t
Maps (2) The spatial distribution of the population growth rate according to the environment in the governorates of Iraq for the period (2010-2020 AD).
Future projections are the modern trend in the science of geography. Through these projections, it is possible to know the future population numbers in order to know the future development plans of building schools, hospitals, care homes and other public services such as transportation methods and housing units. These projections can be calculated through the growth rate and knowing the size of the population during a period precedent, and that future expectations may be unrealistic as the region was exposed to any exceptional circumstances such as wars, earthquakes, and other circumstances.
From Table (5), the expected population of urban Iraq for the year 2030 AD may reach (35,214,703) people, Baghdad governorate records the highest population, which may reach (9,308,502) people, and Al-Muthanna governorate records the lowest population, which may reach (519,938) people. The expected rural Iraq may reach (14,460,676) people, Nineveh Governorate records the highest population, which may reach (1921,948) people, and Erbil Governorate records the lowest population, which may reach (402,783) people, while the expected total population of Iraq for the year 2030 may reach (49,675,379) ) people, Baghdad governorate records the highest population, which amounts to (10,613,481) people, and Al-Muthanna governorate records the lowest population, which may reach (1052,995) people, as shown in maps (3).
Table (5) of the future projections of the population according to the environment in the governorates of Iraq for the year 2030 AD
Population Rural Population Urban Population No.
4854348 1921948 2932400 1
2091717 499445 1592272 2
2111906 1046951 1064955 3
2286831 1103838 1182993 4
10613481 1304979 9308502 5
2662537 1344627 1317910 6
1585253 518454 1066799 7
1789580 670935 1118645 8
2055220 1113483 941737 9
1915871 539986 1375885 10
1669268 701010 968258 11
1052995 533057 519938 12
2722460 944579 1777881 13
1645675 548486 1097189 14
3790596 667776 3122820 15
2424251 402783 2021468 16
1679412 426363 1253049 17
2811650 436485 2375165 18
49675379 14460676 35214703 Total
Source: Based on Table (5) and the following equation: pn = po(l + r)n
pn = expected census, po = previous census, r = growth, n = number of years (Al-Saadi, 2002, p. 291, 203)
Maps (3) of the future projections of the population according to the environment in the governorates of Iraq for the year 2030 AD
RESULTS
1- The research showed that the largest area is the province of Anbar with a rate of (31.7%) of the area of Iraq, and the smallest area is the province of Baghdad with a rate of (1.0%) of the area of Iraq.
2- The research shows that the highest percentage of the population is in Baghdad Governorate, which is (21.2%), and the lowest percentage is in Al-Muthanna Governorate, which is (2.2%). %) in Muthanna Governorate.
3- The research showed that the Iraqi population growth for the period (2010-2020 AD) reached (2.1), and this rate was recorded in urban areas (2.3), and in rural areas it was recorded as (1.8).
4- The research showed that the future projections for the population of Iraq for the year 2030 may reach (49,675,379) people, the urban population may reach (35,214,703) people, and the rural population may reach (14,460,676) people.
RECOMMENDATIONS
1 - There must be organized and directed planning by the concerned authorities to face the large population size in some governorates to prepare plans for housing, education and other basic services.
2- The concerned authorities should provide an organized population policy to reduce the population growth rate, especially in the urban areas of the governorates, through seminars, conferences, and special instructions to reduce births.
3- Studies must be conducted by the concerned authorities to establish attractive projects for the population in the empty areas in order to find a balance between the population and the available resources within the governorates of Iraq.
REFERENCES
1. The Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (no date), Multilingual Demographic Dictionary, 1st edition, Part 1, Baghdad.
2. Al-Saadi, Abbas Fadel, (2014 AD), Al-Mufassal in Population Geography, Part 1, Al-Warraq for
Publishing and Distribution, Amman, Jordan.
3. Al-Saab, Ahmed, (2018), Studies in Population Geography, 1st Edition, Dar Ghaida for Publishing
and Distribution, Amman.
4. Al-Najm, Diaa Jaafar Abdel-Zahra, (2016), the impact of human development on the composition
of the population and their spatial distribution in Najaf Governorate for the period (1997-2014 AD), PhD thesis (unpublished), College of Arts, University of Kufa.
5. Al-Kitab, Rana Abdel-Hassan Jassim, (2016 AD), a spatial analysis of the variables of gender
formation (gender) in the governorates of the Middle Euphrates, PhD thesis (unpublished), College of Arts, University of Kufa.
6. Al-Kitab, Rana Abdul Hassan Jassim, (2015 AD), the density distribution of the population of
Najaf Governorate for the period (1997-2010 AD) and the factors affecting it, College of Education, Al-Muthanna University, Issue 1, Part 2.
7. Ministry of Planning, (2013 AD), Central Statistical Organization, Annual Statistical Abstract.
8. Ministry of Planning, (2021 AD), Central Statistical Organization, Annual Statistical Abstract.
9. The General Commission for Survey, the map of Iraq for the year 2020 AD.
