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Journal of International Group on Reliability
RELIABILITY & RISK ANALYSIS: THEORY & APPLICATIONS
Vol.1 No.2, June, 2008
Special Issue # 2 on SSARS 2007
Invited Editors E. Zio and K. Kolowrocki
San Diego 2008
Journal Council
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Editor-in-Chief :
Ushakov, Igor (USA)
e-mail: igorushakov@gmail.com
Deputy Editor:
Bochkov, Alexander (Russia)
e-mail: a.bochkov@gmail.com
Associated Editors:
Belyaev, Yuri (Sweden)
e-mail: Yuri.Belyaev@math.umu.se
Gertsbakh, Eliahu (Israel)
e-mail: elyager@bezeqint.net
Kovalenko, Igor (Ukraine)
e-mail: kovigo@yandex.ru
Nikulin, Mikhail
e-mail: M.S.Nikouline@sm.u-bordeaux2.fr
Singpurwalla, Nozer (USA)
e-mail: nozer@gwu.edu
Editorial Board:
Chakravarthy, Srinivas (USA)
e-mail: schakrav@kettering. edu
Dimitrov, Boyan (USA)
e-mail: BDIMITRO@KETTERING.EDU Genis, Yakov (USA)
e-mail: yashag5@yahoo.com
Kolowrocki, Krzysztof (Poland)
e-mail: katmatkk@am. gdynia.pl
Krishnamoorthy, Achyutha (India)
e-mail: krishna.ak@gmail.com
Levitin, Gregory (Israel)
e-mail: levitin@iec.co.il
Limnios, Nikolaos (France)
e-mail: Nikolaos.Limnios@utc.fr
Nelson, Wayne (USA)
e-mail: WNconsult@aol.com
Popentiu, Florin (UK)
e-mail: Fl.Popentiu@city.ac.uk
Rykov, Vladimir (Russia)
e-mail: rykov@rykov1.ins.ru
Wilson, Alyson (USA)
e-mail: agw@lanl.gov
Wilson, Simon (Ireland)
e-mail: swilson@tcd.ie
Yastrebenetsky, Mikhail (Ukraine)
e-mail: ma yastreb@mail.ru
Zio, Enrico (Italy)
e-mail: zio@ipmce7.cesnef.polimi.it
Technical assistant
Ushakov, Kristina
e-mail: kudesigns@yahoo.com
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Table of Contents
Igor Ushakov, |Sergei Antonov|. Sumantra Chakravarty
Asad Hamid, Thomas Keliinoi
SPARE SUPPLY SYSTEM FOR WORLDWIDE TELECOMMUNICATION SYSTEM GLOBALSTAR...................................................................................
This work describes the Optimal Spare Allocator (OSA), a software tool for Globalstar, which is a worldwide satellite telecommunication system designed at QUALCOMM (San Diego, USA). The Globalstar spare supply system is hierarchical and has three levels: Central Spare Stock (CSS), Regional Spare Stocks (RSS) and On-Site Spare Stocks (OSS). The tool allows solving direct and inverse problems of optimal redundancy. The OSA computer model has a user-friendly interface and a convenient reporting utility.
Berg Heinz-Peter, Görtz Rudolf, Kesten Jürgen
METHODS FOR THE TREATMENT OF COMMON CAUSE FAILURES IN
REDUNDANT SYSTEMS..................................................................................................................8
Dependent failures are extremely important in reliability analysis and must be given adequate treatment so as to minimize gross underestimation of reliability. German regulatory guidance documents for PSA stipulate that model parameters used for calculating frequencies should be derived from operating experience in a transparent manner. Progress has been made with the process oriented simulation (POS) model for common cause failure (CCF) quantification. A number of applications are presented for which results obtained from established CCF models are available, focusing on cases with high degree of redundancy and small numbers of observed events.
Berg Heinz-Peter, Frohmel Thomas, Winter Christian
ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF EXTERNAL FLOODING TO NUCLEAR INSTALLATIONS.............................................................................................................................. 19
The German regulatory body has issued probabilistic safety assessment guidelines, elaborated for a comprehensive integrated safety review of all NPP in operation and containing a newly developed graded approach for the probabilistic assessment of external flooding. Main aspects are explained such as the underlying probabilistic considerations and the mathematical procedures for the calculation of exceedance frequencies. Exemplarily it has been investigated if extreme events such as tsunami waves could be a hazard for NPP at coastal sites in Germany.
Cadini Francesco, Zio Enrico, Pedroni Nicola
RECURRENT NEURAL NETWORKS FOR DYNAMIC RELIABILITY
ANALYSIS..........................................................................................................................................30
A dynamic approach to the reliability analysis of realistic systems is likely to increase the computational burden, due to the need of integrating the dynamics with the system stochastic evolution. Hence, fast-running models of process evolution are sought. In this respect, empirical modelling is becoming a popular approach to system dynamics simulation since it allows identifying the underlying dynamic model by fitting system operational data through a procedure often referred to as 'learning'. In this paper, a Locally Recurrent Neural Network (LRNN) trained according to a Recursive Back-Propagation (RBP) algorithm is investigated as an efficient tool for fast dynamic simulation. An application is performed with respect to the simulation of the non-linear dynamics of a nuclear reactor, as described by a simplified model of literature.
Dourmas N. Georgios, Nikitakos V. Niñitas, Lambrou A. Maria
A METHODOLOGY FOR RATING AND RANKING HAZARDS IN MARITIME
FORMAL SAFETY ASSESSMENT USING FUZZY LOGIC..........................................................43
Formal safety assessment of ships has attracted great attention over the last few years. This paper, following a brief review of the current status of marine safety assessment is focused on the hazards identification (HAZID) and prioritisation process. A multicriteria decision making framework, which is based on experts' estimation, is then proposed for hazards evaluation. Additionally in this paper many aspects of the evaluation framework are presented including the synthesis of evaluation teams, the assessment of the importance of criteria, the evaluation of the consequences of the alternative hazards and the final ranking of the hazards. The proposed methodology has the innovative feature of embodying techniques of fuzzy logic theory into the classical multicriteria decision
analysis. The paper concludes by exploring the potentiality of the above methodology in providing a robust and flexible evaluation framework suitable to the characteristics of a hazard evaluation problem.
Duffey Romney B., Saull John W.
RISK PREDICTION FOR MODERN TECHNOLOGICAL SYSTEMS...........................................52
We have already examined the worldwide trends for outcomes (measured as accidents, errors and events) using data available for large complex technological systems with human involvement. That analysis was a dissection of the basic available, published data on real and measured risks, for trends and inter-comparisons of outcome rates. We found and showed how all the data agreed with the learning theory when the accumulated experience is accounted for. Here, learning includes both positive and negative feedback, directly or indirectly, as a result of prior outcomes or experience gained, in both the organizational and individual contexts. Our purpose here and now is to try to introduce some predictability and insight into the risk or occurrence of these apparently random events. In seeking such a general risk prediction we adopt a fundamental theoretical approach that is and must be testable against the world's existing data. Comparisons with outcome error data from the world's commercial airlines, the two shuttle failures, and from nuclear plant operator transient control behaviour, show a reasonable level of accord. The results demonstrate that the risk is dynamic, and that it may be predicted using the MERE learning hypothesis and the minimum failure rate, and can be utilized for predictive risk analysis purposes.
Galor Wieslaw
THE SHIPS IMPACT IN GROUND OF PORT WATER AREA......................................................61
The existing ports are expected to handle ships bigger than those for which they were designed. The main restriction in serving these ships is the depth of port waters, which directly affects the safety of a manoeuvring ship. The under keel-clearance of a ship in the port water area should be such that a ship moves safely. In some specific conditions it happen the ship strike the sea bottom. The undesired impact against the ground can damage
the ship hull. The paper presents the algorithm of ships movement parameters during contact with the ground Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.
METHODS FOR RISK ANALYSIS IN DISASTER REDUCTION.................................................67
This paper discusses a proposal for a risk management tool for applications to risk reduction of natural hazards. Hryniewicz Olgierd
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF INTERVAL AND IMPRECISE DATA -
APPLICATIONS IN THE ANALYSIS OF RELIABILITY FIELD DATA......................................73
The analysis of field lifetime data is much more complicated than the analysis of the results of reliability laboratory tests. In the paper we present an overview of the most important problems of the statistical analysis of field lifetime data, and present their solutions known from literature. When the input information is partial or imprecise, we propose to use interval arithmetics for the calculation of bounds on reliability characteristics of interest. When this information can be described in a more informative fuzzy form, we can generalize our interval-valued results to their fuzzy equivalents.
Józwiak Ireneusz J., Laskowski Wojciech
A SHORT NOTE ON RELIABILITY OF SECURITY SYSTEMS..................................................88
Telecommunication systems become a key component of critical infrastructure. One of the main elements of such systems is computer system. The organizations which can be involved in crisis management (e.g. government agencies, etc. ) need to know results of security drawbacks in their systems. Moreover, they should have a tool for analysing the results of decision made in security context. And often the following question is raised: why do security systems fail? To answer it in this paper the aspects of reliability are discussed. From this point of view the security systems are analysed. We hope that thanks to such approach we will be able to reach some characteristics of security incidents occurrence. Moreover, we hope to use our results to build security attributes metrics. In addition, we present thesis that predictions of occurrence of incidents is impossible, so we should focus on registration of incidents type. On such a foundation we can formulate conclusions about drawbacks in configurations or administration of information systems. In our research we have observed that in case of some class of information systems, the availability incidents are the most dangerous. And we conclude that only using technologies with good reliability characteristics can lead to solving this problem.
Kobylinski Lech
STABILITY AND SAFETY OF SHIPS: HOLISTIC AND RISK APPROACH...............................95
Present stability regulations developed over the years by IMO reached definite conclusion with the adoption of the Revised Draft of the Intact Stability Code. The criteria included there are design criteria of the prescriptive nature, based mainly on statistics of stability casualties. Currently IMO is considering development of criteria
based on ship performance. Concept of such criteria is, however, at present not agreed. The criteria are working comparatively well with regard to the majority of conventional ships, however advent of very large and sophisticated ships of non-conventional features caused that those criteria may be inadequate. The author advances the idea consisting of application of safety assessment and risk analysis using holistic and system approach to stability. Safety against capsizing (or LOSA accident) is a complex system where design, operational, environmental and human factors have to be taken into account. Although this seems to be a very complex task, in the opinion of the author it may be manageable and could be applied for safety assessment of highly sophisticated and costly ships.
Kuo Way
RELIABILITY WAVE IN LIGHT OF THE NANO DEVELOPMENT............................................ 106
This talk is based on the Editorial of IEEE Transactions on Reliability, December, 2006 and discusses a framework for applying reliability principles and practices to the emerging nano technology fields.
Rosicka Zdena
RISK ASSESSMENT RELATED TO INFORMATION UNCERTAINTY
COMPONENTS.................................................................................................................................. 110
Both organization and individuals deal with and manage knowledge. Considering the basic approach, we distinguish two principal clusters: tacit and explicit knowledge. The knowledge management is targeted at making the organization knowledge operation more effective and providing the right people with relevant information at the right time. Knowledge and information uncertainty components have become one of crucial assets of any company or organization. Their crucial potential consists in smart knowledge management handling, proficiency and art to fit the risky market needs better than competitors.
Sadovsky Zoltan, Fasko Pavol, Pecho Jozef, Bochnicek Oliver, Mikulova Katarina, St' astny Pavel
COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS OF CLIMATIC MEASUREMENTS FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF SNOW LOADS ON STRUCTURES.................................................................. 118
Climatological measurements for the assessment of snow loads on structures as practiced in Slovakia are discussed in the light of methodologies described in the relevant backgrounds to Eurocodes. The database of yearly snow load maxima based on the weekly measurements of water equivalent of snow cover on 660 rain-gauge stations in Slovakia recorded during the last 52 winter seasons is analysed. Special interest is focused on the influence of heavy snowfalls in the winters 2004/2005 and 2005/2006, particularly on the extreme cases observed.
Smierzchalski Roman
SAFE SHIP CONTROL SYSTEM..................................................................................................... 127
The article presents a control system of ship motion in situations threatening with collision. The goal of the presented system is to support the navigator in decision making, with possible full replacement of his work in the future. In this article, it was introduced a system joining work of two computer techniques, evolutionary algorithms to marking of optimum path of passages and a fuzzy logic to control ship after set path of passage. The introduced system has to assure safe trip of a ship in any navigational conditions with regard of weather conditions and met navigational objects of static or dynamic nature. For testing of the operation, the system and the marine environment a simulator was used to present navigational situations in a 3D graphical mode at the poor hydro-and-meteorological conditions.
Stodola Jiri
POSSIBILITIES OF TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS AND RISK CRASH EVALUATION...................... 134
This article analyses the traffic accident rate on roads and highways and possibilities of risk evaluation related to traffic accident occurrence based on factors that were the causes of accidents. A new term - risk of traffic accident occurrence is a product of probability of accident occurrence and its impacts. The results are presented by way of example that uses selected statistical data of the Czech Republic traffic accident rate between 1993 -2001. The article provides a brief methodological procedure of evaluation of the traffic accident rate using the risk of traffic accident occurrence.
Szlapczynska Joanna, Smierzchalski Roman
ADOPTED ISOCHRONES METHOD IMPROVING SHIP SAFETY IN WEATHER ROUTING WITH EVOLUTIONARY APPROACH.............
The paper is focused on adaptation of an isochrones method necessary for application to a weather routing system with evolutionary approach. Authors propose an adaptation of the isochrones method with area partitioning assuring that the route found by the adopted method would not cross land. In result, when applied to a weather routing system with evolutionary approach, this proposal facilitates creation of initial population, resulting with routes of reduced collision risk and low costs of passage.
Witkowska Anna, Smierzchalski Roman
NON-LINEAR BACKSTEPPING SHIP COURSE CONTROLLER................................................ 147
A ship, as an object for course control, is characterised by a nonlinear function describing the static manoeuvring characteristics. One of the methods, which can be used, for designing a non-linear course controller for ships is the backstepping method. It was used here for designing the configurations of non-linear controllers, which were then applied for ship course control. The parameters of the obtained non-linear control structures were tuned to optimise the operation of the control system. The optimisation was performed using genetic algorithms. The quality of operation of the designed control algorithms was checked in simulation tests performed on the mathematical model of the tanker completed by steering gear.
Zio Enrico, Baraldi Piero, Librizzi Massimo, Podofillini Luca, Dang H. Vinh
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF A FUZZY EXPERT SYSTEM FOR MODELLING
DEPENDENCIES IN HUMAN OPERATORS' EMERGENCY TASKS......................................... 156
This paper analyzes the behaviour of a fuzzy expert system for evaluating the dependence among successive operator actions, through a sensitivity analysis on the fuzzy input partitioning and assessment. Preliminary results are presented with respect to a case study concerning two successive tasks of an emergency procedure in a nuclear reactor. Work is in progress to perform a thorough sensitivity analysis to generalize the results obtained.
Zio Enrico, Sansavini Giovanni, Maja Roberto, Marchionni Giovanna
ANALYSIS OF THE SAFETY EFFICIENCY OF A ROAD NETWORK: A REAL
CASE STUDY..................................................................................................................................... 172
In this paper, recently introduced topological measures of interconnection and efficiency of network systems are applied to the safety analysis of the road transport system of the Province of Piacenza in Italy. The vulnerability of the network is evaluated with respect to the loss of a road link, e.g. due to a car accident, road work or other jamming occurrences. Eventually, the improvement in the global and local safety indicators following the implementation of a road development plan is evaluated.
