CC BY
39
Социологические науки
№ 6-2. - 2016
UDC 314
SOME DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES IN THE POPULATION OF MONTENEGRO WITH THE PROJECTION OF FUTURE DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT
G. Rajovic, International Network Center for Fundamental and Applied Research (Sochi, Russia), Academic Member ATINER based on Serbia (Serbia), e-mail: [email protected] J. Bulatovic, College of Textile Design, Technology and Management (Belgrade, Serbia),
e-mail: [email protected]
Abstract. Dramatic demographic changes through which in recent decade's passes Montenegrin society, the consequences arising from the new realities require a serious socio-political engagement. Process of population aging, that began the seventies of the 20th century, represents a significant problem. The process of demographic change was accompanied by an internal migration to major urban centers, primarily Podgorica and Montenegrin coast, leading to emptying the interior of Montenegro. Unfortunately, this development of the population structure of Montenegro opens a series of questions and challenges that would the creators of the future you should put high on the scale of its priorities. In this text we will point out on change of total number of citizens of Montenegro according to the base and chain indexes of 1921 - 2011 and population in Montenegro 2016 - 2091 (cohort model projections).
Key words: Montenegro, demographic changes, demographic development.
For almost twenty years now, Central and Eastern Europe has been undergoing the transition from "state-socialist" societies with planned economies to "free" societies with market-oriented economies. The re-organization of social institutions during this transition period, that still has not come to an end yet, has been accompanied with dramatic changes of people's lives. Following the collapse of "communism", they found themselves unprepared for the changes about to happen. Not only did they have to adjust their beliefs and their expectations about almost every single aspect of life; they also found themselves ill prepared for succeeding in a new, unfamiliar society, with qualifications suddenly worth little. Many were exposed to hardship previously unknown to most of them (e.g. unemployment, poverty, social exclusion, limited access to health care depending on financial circumstances)(Hoff, 2008).
The population trends in the Montenegro reflect the country's trends in fertility and mortality and in internal and international migration. These components underlie the changes in the size of our population, its geographic distribution, its age and sex composition, and its racial and ethnic composition. They also influence changes in the country's housing and household composition. The trends examined in this text represent some demographic changes in the population of Montenegro with the projection of future demographic development. We believe that a continued discussion about these issues between social scientists and policy makers will be crucial to leverage the benefits of changing population compositions. Design of the structure of the population is beyond the scope of this article, but this is an obvious topic for future research. Namely, life expectancy is increasing almost universally, and the health status of the older population is improving. The importance of investments in education is well known, and education levels are increasing in the great majority of countries. Although the results presented refer to
Montenegro, they could be of interest for other regions around the world, including both developed and developing countries.
Throughout the twentieth century Montenegro was typical immigration area. Low economic development and vast destruction during the wars in this century are the main cause of the mass emigration. The most common destination for migrants from Montenegro was mainly Serbia, but also other areas of the former Yugoslavia. However, since the mid-sixties, and especially after 1990, Western Europe and some overseas countries are becoming increasingly a destination of Montenegrin emigrants. Montenegro was also the immigration area. In fact, it was more than one type of immigration: colonists, marital, economic. Unfortunately, in the last decade of the twentieth century, the most important are forced migration caused by wars in the former Yugoslavia. Of immigration were of varying intensity, but as a rule, the smaller scale than emigration from Montenegro ( Milanovic et al,1990).
Table 1. Change of total number of citizens of Montenegro according to the base
and chain indexes, 1921-2011
Year Base index 1921=100 Chain index
1921 100 -
1931 115.64 115.64
1941 135.54 117.21
1948 121.19 89.41
1953 134.87 111.29
1961 151.60 112.40
1971 170.10 112.21
1981 187.68 110.33
1991 197.54 105.26
2003 199.19 100.83
2011 199.15 99.98
Source: Despotovic et al (2015) according to Statistical Office of Montenegro - MONSTAT (2015).
According to Despotovic et al (2015) indicating that the conducted census is total population of Montenegro recorded a change in growth. On the basis of the calculated base index which took the year 1921 as the base year, the highest growth was in 2003 (99.19 %) in comparison to 1921. Chain indexes show that in the post-war period, the highest growth was in 1953 compared to the previous census from 1948, as well as in 1961 in the comparison to the census from 1953. In the subsequent period, it began to stagnate, i.e. it began to decline. These changes are immanent in societies that are rapidly industrialized and urbanized.
Demographic change is one of the most important determinants of the future economic and social landscape. Many researchers have looked into how changes in the size and the composition of an economy's population influence macroeconomic outcomes. The channels through which demographic changes affect an economy typically include savings and investment behaviors, labor market decisions, and aggregate demand and supply responses. In the medium to long run, both changes in the labor supply and changes in productivity-either viewed as exogenous or caused by demographic changes-could significantly alter an economy's aggregate supply and thereby economic growth, since demographic changes affect the amount and combination by which its factor inputs are utilized. In the short run, demographic transitions are
likely to affect aggregate demand, since the amount of consumption and investment would depend critically on structural changes in the population's age-earnings profiles (Yoon et al,2014).
Table 2. Population in Montenegro 2016 - 2091 (cohort model projections)
Montenegro Annual Average Annual Annual Annual CBR CDR
Growth Annual Births Deaths Natural
Year Population Rate % Increase Increase
2016 708.612 0.37 2.566 9.859 7.053 2.806 13.9 10.0
2021 718.257 0.27 1.929 9.596 7.427 2.169 13.4 10.3
2026 725.267 0.19 1.402 9.503 7.861 1.642 13.1 10.8
2031 730.965 0.16 1.140 9.528 8.388 1.140 13.0 11.5
2036 733.803 0.08 568 9.535 8.967 568 13.0 12.2
2041 733.901 0.00 20 9.446 9.427 20 12.9 12.8
2046 731.688 -0.06 -443 9.302 9.745 -443 12.7 13.3
2051 727.901 -0.10 -757 9.183 9.940 -757 12.6 13.7
2056 723.092 -0.13 -962 9.121 10.082 -962 12.6 13.9
2061 717.507 -0.15 -1.117 9.082 10.199 -1.117 12.7 14.2
2066 711.542 -0.17 -1.193 9.023 10.216 -1.193 12.7 14.4
2071 705.556 -0.17 -1.197 8.934 10.132 -1.197 12.7 14.4
2076 699,822 -0.16 -1.147 8.838 9.985 -1.147 12.6 14.3
2081 694.194 -0.16 -1.126 8.758 9.883 -1.126 12.6 14.2
2086 688.438 -0.17 -1.151 8.694 9.845 -1.151 12.6 14.3
2091 682.590 -0.17 -1.170 8.632 9.802 -1.170 12.6 14.4
Source: Bacovic (2007).
Basic assumptions for projections: specific age fertility rate and specific age death rate were assumed to be constant during next century. Absolute specific age net migrations were assumed to be negative and fixed until 2026 (while relative specific age net migration (net migration rate) decreased constantly due to increasing specific age population), and then are equal to zero. Negative net migration rates were evidenced in Montenegro in periods of economic and political instability, particularly at the end on XX century. It is natural to assume that such migration trends will continue as long as instability exists, with declining trends strongly correlated with increasing stability (Bacovic, 2007).
Zero rates of net migration rely on the optimistic scenario of economic and institutional development in Montenegro in next two decades, despite the fact that demographic components will be more of an obstacle than the source of such trends. If, instead of assuming zero a specific net migration rate starting in 2026, we assume negative rates to continue, the demographic structure of a population will shift so that unproductive groups dominate even more. At the beginning of 21st century, Montenegro is approaching a posttransition demographic era, characterized by almost an equal crude birth rate and crude death rate, and both slightly higher than 10 per thousand people. The post-transition period should end in the fifth decade, when the "future declining" period starts with a constant decline in population, low fertility rates and aging ( Bacovic, 2007).
In order to avoid irreversible consequences of aging, it is essential to maintain the necessary access to information and awareness of the relationships between population aging and social, economic and natural development. In order to move from knowledge to concrete
actions, providing objective scientific information about the specifics of the aging process specifics to decision-makers is of exquisite relevance (Stloukal, 2001).
Our research records based on similar studies Wertheimer - Baletic ( 2005) indicates that in its overall development policy of Montenegro is already faced with economic, social, health and other consequences of long - term unfavorable demographic processes that are underway and which worsen with time, so that Montenegro must continually adapt their economic, health and social policy of ongoing demographic changes and their implications for the lives of families, individuals and the whole community. Currents and current demographic phenomena and processes intensify not only economic but also a social crisis, a crisis of the family and the general crisis of life in Montenegro ( see Rajovic and Bulatovic, 2015; Rajovic and Bulatovic, 2015; Rajovic and Bulatovic, 2016).
The adjustment of the age structure at the end of the transition takes many decades to complete. A key implication of this slow adjustment process is that population growth continues for many years after replacement fertility is reached if, as is often the case, the population is still relatively young when fertility reaches the replacement level. The tendency of population size to increase after a two-child family size has been reached is referred to as population momentum; it is the consequence of a young population age structure ("young" is defined relative to the age structure in the current life table) (Bongaarts and Bulatao 1999).
Urgent reversal, primarily to the knowledge of the real demographic situation and its economic, social, health and other consequences for the life of the people, the inevitable assumption of our overall development. Because the population is an important factor in the development are component the development of the production potential of the country, not just a consumer. The current demographic situation and future demographic processes that have determined the legality of long-term demographic inertia are becoming the limiting factor in the overall economic and social development
References:
1. Hoff, A., (2014), Population ageing in Central and Eastern Europe as an outcome of the socio-economic transition to capitalism, Socialinis Darbas, 7(2), 14-25.
2. Milanovic, R.M., Radojevic, V., Skataric, G.,(2010), Depopulation as a factor of rural and regional development in Montenegro, Skola biznisa, 4, 32-40.
3. Despotovic, A., Joksimovic, M., Jovanovic, M.,(2015), Impact of demographic changes on agricultural development in Montenegro, Economics of Agriculture , 3, 613-625.
4. Statistical Office of Montenegro (2015), Comparative overview of the population, Podgorica.
5. Yoon, J. W., Kim, J., Lee, J., (2014), Impact of demographic changes on inflation and the macro economy, IMF Working Paper No. 14/210
6. Bacovic, M.,(2007),Demographic Changes in transition countries: Opportunity or Obstacle for Economic Growth? Case of Montenegro, European Research Studies, XI (3-4),31-44.
7. Stloukal, L., (2001), Rural population ageing in poorer countries: possible implications for rural development, FAO Population Programme Service (SDWP).
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ri Rajovic G., Bulatovic J. Some demographic changes in the population of
Montenegro with the projection of future demographic development II Nauka. Mysl'.-2016. - № 6-2.
© G. Rajovic, 2016.
© J. Bulatovic, 2016.
© «Наука. Мысль», 2016.
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Аннотация. Резкие демографические изменения, через которые в последнее десятилетие прошло черногорское общество, последствия, возникающие в связи с новыми реалиями, требуют серьезного социально-политического взаимодействия. Процесс старения населения, который начался с семидесятых годов 20-го века, представляет собой серьезную проблему. Процесс демографических изменений сопровождался внутренней миграции в крупные городские центры, в первую очередь, в Подгорицу и на черногорское побережье, что ведет к опустению центральной части Черногории. К сожалению, такое развитие структуры населения Черногории ставит целый ряд вопросов и проблем, которые создатели будущего должны поставить высоко на шкале приоритетов. В этом тексте мы укажем на изменение общего числа граждан Черногории в соответствии с базовыми и цепными индексами 1921 - 2011 гг. и населения в Черногории 2016 - 2091 гг. (модели проекции контингента).
Ключевые слова: Черногория, демографические изменения, демографическое развитие.
— • — Authors
Dr Goran Rajovic, International Network Center for Fundamental and Applied Research (Sochi, Russia), Academic Member ATINER based on Serbia (Serbia).
№ 6-2. - 2016
MSc Jelisavka Bulatovic, College of Textile Design, Technology and Management Street (Belgrade, Serbia).
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Подписано в печать 20.05.2016.
© Наука. Мысль, 2016.
