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SCIENCE TIME
SINO-AMERICAN CONFRONTATION IN THE CONTEXT OF NEW GEOPOLITICAL CHALLENGES
Cebotari Svetlana, Moldova State University, Chisinau, Moldova
E-mail: svetlana.cebotari@mail.ru
Bevziuc Victoria, Moldova State University, Chisinau, Moldova
Abstract. The events of the 21st century, including the emergence of the COVID-19 crisis, have significantly affected international relations, especially Sino-US ones. In recent years, there have been several disagreements between the US and China. The current worsening of relations between Washington and Beijing has become one of the worst in recent history. Some experts have already labeled the deteriorating US-China relationship a new Cold War.
The purpose of this article is to highlight the main aspects of the Sino-American confrontation.
Key words: international relations, confrontation, crisis, USA, China, geopolitical challenges.
Introduction
The events of the first two decades of the 21st century have a direct impact on international relations. The West's victory in the Cold War gave rise to a world order for which there could be no alternatives. Since then, it was believed, the history of the world will constantly move towards the universalization of Western-style democracy and market economy. The new century would simply be a continuation of the precedent, with a triumphant West expanding its dominance. Today, however, the global order is undergoing a fundamental change, as its centre of gravity moves from the North Atlantic to the Pacific and from the East to Asia. China is about to become -economically, technologically and politically - a world power and the only rival of the main hegemonic power-United States of America (USA) [4].
In recent years, there have been several disagreements between the US and China. The current worsening of relations between Washington and Beijing has become one of the worst in recent history. Some experts have already labeled the deteriorating relationship between the US and China as a new Cold War [11]. In the economic, diplomatic, political and military circles of both countries there is open talk of a new Cold War, which affects all areas of life, because America and China
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represent two opposing worldviews: democracy versus communism. A "cold war" is taking place between the United States and China in which China plays the game of "great power" smarter than the US.
Tensions between Washington and Beijing have alternated sinusoidally for more than half a century, but over the past decade China's position around the world has become more ambitious. It has intensified its military presence in the South China Sea (in violation of recognized maritime boundaries), anchored its technologies and supply chains through trade agreements around the world, increased the theft of intellectual property against the United States and other democracies, and imposed a regime authority in Hong Kong, violating the treaty that guaranteed the autonomy of the former British colony by 2047. These steps are part of a strategy to "replace the United States as a dominant power in the Asia-Pacific region" in order to finally achieve "a transformation of the world order" [5].
For a better understanding of Sino-American relations, there is a need to examine the events of recent times between the US and China. According to the national security strategy presented by US President 45th President Donald Trump on December 18, 2017, "China and Russia challenge American power, influence and interests...".
It should also be noted that in the previous Strategy - adopted in 2002 by George W. Bush - it was stated that the United States ,,will be strong enough to deter potential adversaries from developing their armed forces in the hope of exceeding or reaching the same level as the United States" [5]. On the basis of this, it can be concluded, firstly, about the continuity of US foreign policy (despite the change of administrations and parties in power) and, secondly, that the aim of the US leadership was and remains to be to maintain global domination. During B. Obama's presidency, the justification for this was the war on terro [9]. At that time the rapid rise of China's political and military power was perceived as a threat to American leadership [6].
Under the leadership of Deng Xiaoping's Communist Party, the designated economic course set its goal of transitioning from a planned economy to a market economy and from an "autonomous" development model, China became a "workshop of the world" in the late 20th and early 21st centuries. This led to unprecedented growth rates of the Chinese economy, which began to create purely political risks to the global hegemony of the United States. Donald Trump's coming to power in the United States in 2016 with his protectionist agenda marked a radical change in U.S. policy toward China [10].
Against the backdrop of a trade war with the United States and a recession in the global economy due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Beijing is urgently seeking ways out of the crisis. In the coming years, China plans to radically reorient the country's economy in order to reduce its dependence on exports and to stimulate domestic demand for Chinese products and services. This includes the so-called concept of "internal circulation" developed by the Chinese authorities in response to the challenges Beijing has recently faced. The trade war with the United States has hit the Chinese export-oriented economy hard. In addition, the decline of the global economy due to the coronavirus pandemic is also an impediment to China's trade expansion in the world market [9].
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China has long been considered a major supplier of cheap goods. Under the RPC management's plan, China would have to switch from a supplier of cheap goods to a manufacturer of high technologies. The authorities' initial strategy called "Made in China 2025" called China to be in the middle of the world's largest high-tech producers by 2049. According to China's State Publication Global Times, the new strategy can be seen as Beijing's response to US President Donald Trump's policy, which was aimed at separating the economies of China and the United States. China may be forced to turn its back on the three "unfriendly countries" - the United States, Canada and Australia - and focus on deepening cooperation with countries in Europe, Asia and Africa - in particular, trade blocs such as ASEAN and the EU. In addition, Beijing will continue to actively fund infrastructure projects as part of the "New Silk Road" initiative, a transport corridor between China and Europe [10].
At the same time, China does not intend to abandon its goal of becoming a world leader in high technologies. Today, however, China is heavily dependent on imports of mobile chips from the United States. Thanks to sanctions imposed by Washington, the world's largest chip manufacturers - for example, Taiwan's American company Qualcomm and Taiwan's TSMC - can no longer supply the products to Chinese company Huawei. In this context, China will have no choice but to establish its own production of microcircuit, writes Professor Yao Yang of Beijing University in a commentary for the China Daily newspaper.
Yang's position to the contrary is Commerzbank analyst Bernd Weidensteiner, who believes the Chinese authorities' plans to turn China into a "consumer economy" in the coming years are unlikely. "Large income disparities and demographic problems - especially a decrease in the working-age population, will prevent the growth of domestic consumption - especially given that, due to the low level of pensions, the country's residents will continue to try to save decent amounts for the future" - writes the expert. A similar view is shared by American economist Michael Pettis. According to Pettis, if the concept of "domestic movement" is implemented, then the increase in domestic consumption will have a negative impact on China's trade with foreign countries. For instance, China has managed to maintain high rates of economic growth, mainly due to the fact that Chinese workers earn relatively little and that the country has virtually no social protection system, explains the American economist [12].
Currently, President Biden maintains and expands the measures against China that his predecessor led. The US resident has decided to ban U.S. investment in a dozen Chinese defense and technology companies with alleged military ties. The new executive order will affect 59 firms in the Asian country, including giant Huawei and the country's three largest telecommunications companies. This is an extension of the order previously signed by his predecessor, Donald Trump, which promoted a strengthening of its position with China and prompted some experts to warn of a "new cold war". The decree extends the scope of another executive order signed by former President Trump, who has invested the country in about thirty Chinese companies for allegedly supporting the efforts of Beijing's intelligence, military and security
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apparatus. The aim of the veto was to ensure that US investments ,,do not support the Chinese defense sector". Huawei's management said the sanctions imposed by the United States in 2019 had a major impact on the mobile phone business [11].
The move comes amid serious allegations of Chinese human rights violations against Uighurs in the Xinjiang region: „Children are separated from their families and sent to orphanages, committing "genocide" against Uighurs in Xinjiang, the Biden Government has also accused Beijing of acting more aggressively in the international arena" [3]. Several Chinese companies included in the list considered Washington's accusations "unfounded." In fact, Xiaomi, one of the world's leading mobile phone manufacturers and Huawei's main competitor in the Chinese market, filed a lawsuit in U.S. federal courts and won, forcing the U.S. government to remove it from its list. However, the current list includes the three largest telecommunications companies in the Asian giant: China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom. Huawei said sanctions imposed by the United States in 2019 had a major impact on its mobile phone business [12].
Asian country's Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Wang Wenbin expressed China's "strong opposition" to the order, which it considered to harm "not only the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese companies, but also of global investors, including Americans". The growing technological war between China and the US "will not change with the Biden government" and that the new president is leading a "fuller and deeper strategy" to compete with Beijing [2].
In an attempt to rectify relations between the United States and China, officials from both countries met in the city of Anchorage, Alaska, to discuss issues of concern to both sides. The March 18, 2021 meeting in Anchorage between Chinese and American officials was not a successful one. No consensus has been reached since the Alaska meeting. In the first high-level discussions of the Joe Biden Administration, the United States and China have harshly criticized each other's policies, which shows how relations between the two global rivals are ongoing. On behalf of the US, the Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, and the national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, attended; and on the Chinese side, the head of the Communist Party of China for Foreign Affairs, Yang Jiechi, and the head of diplomacy, Wang Yi. Antony Blinken uttered a phrase during the hearing that disturbed the Asian side: ,,We will discuss our deep concerns about China's actions, including in Xinjiang, Hong Kong, Taiwan, as well as cyber attacks against the United States"[1]. Blinken went on to say that Washington is trying to reject Chinese practices because "being strong does not mean the same thing as being right" and criticized the Government in Beijing for taking actions that "threaten the rule-based world order that maintains global stability" [3].
On the other hand, Yang Jiechi: "With regard to cyber attacks, let me say that whether it is the ability to launch cyber attacks or the technologies that could be implemented, the United States is champions in this regards.Yang went on to say that "the Western world does not represent global public opinion", adding that "when it comes to universal values or international public opinion from the United States does not represent the world, it represents only the government of the United States. With a
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mediation tone, Jake Sullivan said that the United States is not seeking a conflict with China, but will defend its principles and friends" [12].
Before the Alaska meeting, Blinken was in Japan and South Korea, allies of the United States in Asia. Relations between the United States and China deteriorated during Donald Trump's presidency, and although Biden promised to improve them, his administration does not appear to be in a hurry to end his conflicts with Beijing [8]. The two-day summit in Alaska revealed the profound differences between Washington and Beijing, from trade to human rights. The US delegation raised accusations of China's human rights violations in Xinjiang, Tibet and Hong Kong, denounced Beijing's alleged pressure on Taiwan and held the Asian country responsible for cyber attacks. Each of these actions threatens the rule-based order that maintains global stability. The Chinese entourage, for its part, questioned the United States for promoting what it considers its own version of democracy at a time when that country is facing its internal discontent and accused it of not addressing its own human rights issues [1].
Thus, in the context of the Cofid-19 pandemic, the confrontation between China and the United States becomes an obvious one. Since 2013, when Xi Jinping became president for life, China's goals are clear, verbalized by Jinping: "to become the world's first economy in 2028 and to be the world's first power in 2049". Xi Jinping aspires to world domination, involving economics, business, technology, society, values, the military, finance and demography [2]. On May 3, 2020, Anthony Blinken in an interview on CBS television (60 minutes) reiterated the US position: "The US economic relationship with China can be summed up in one word: competition. China aspires to world leadership. The Biden-Harris administration will face abusive, unfair and illegal practices on China's part. We will invest at home and protect American workers and businesses. We will maintain our technological advantage and scientific innovations without supporting China's bad practices. And unlike Trump's approach to being alone with China [3] we will work with our allies to defeat China's abusive and coercive practices in trade, technology and human rights. Battle fronts are many. In trade, America has a large deficit in its trade with China. Trump imposed sanctions that Biden did not lift because it gives him a position that is advantageous to negotiate. In this context, it is worth paying attention to Katherine Tai's statements that "sanctions will remain in place until a fair balance is struck with China" [3]. The Second Cold War is different from the first, because China is an economic power unlike the USSR which never reached 40% of US GDP. 17% of North American public debt is in Chinese hands. It's a cliché: "China is the great factory of the world". It is the first trading partner of the European Union, Australia, Japan and South Korea, allies of the United States. In the so-called South China Sea, where China claims to hold 80% of a sea that is 2.5 times the size of the Mediterranean Sea, China has built artificial islands for military purposes (threatens Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, which also want its role in the sea) and, above all, for the exploitation of raw materials, because in the seabed there is natural gas and oil. The West is abandoning fossil fuels in favor of renewable energy sources to combat climate change, but China is not changing, thinking about its interests [3].
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The consequences are military. China currently has aircraft carriers and a military fleet. The U.S. has two aircraft carriers that sail permanently in the South China Sea. They are the largest carriers in the world (Ronald Reagan and Enterprise, atomic and accompanied by 70 ships). China at the moment has three aircraft carriers in the region and the fourth (nuclear) is under construction. Chinese carriers Liaoning and Shandong (inaugurated by Xi dressedin a Mao costume) cross paths with the Americans without coming to the strikes, although they clashed with Filipino ships and violated Taiwanese airspace many times [2].
One moment that bothers the U.S. is the way China treads on strong alliances with the enemies of the United States: Russia, Iran, Venezuela (obviously North Korea). "China has stolen billions of dollars in intellectual property from us", says Biden, who maintains Trump's technological war with China, where companies such as Huawei, Xiaomi, Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu and TikTok (Bytedance) are considered enemies as a last resort - belonging to the Chinese state through its armed forces. Ongoing Chinese hacks of US intelligence agencies, national security, cybersecurity, AI and Silicon Valley are at stake: Apple technology, Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook etc. China has a lot to do with the lack of chips/semiconductors that affect Intel, Nvidia, AMD and Qualcomm [7].
Conclusions
Currently, the representatives of the academic community, are wondering what the future of relations between the two world rivals - the US and China - will be? Will a consensus be reached or will the confrontation become even more pronounced? Building on the reasoning that the economies of both states are highly dependent on each other, however, there will be consensus and collaboration between states. Given China's progress and new role in the international arena, however, the evolution of a scenario that would further highlight the Sino-American rivalry is not excluded.
Thus, starting from the rhetoric of the debates present in the speeches and behind the scenes of the great Western chancellors, but also from the rhetoric present on the working table of researchers and representatives of academia, we could outline two behavioral strategies in Sino-American relations. A first scenario will concern the consensual aspect between the two rivals, finding mechanisms to relaunch political, economic, scientific dialogue, etc. The success of President Biden's policy in China will depend on whether the two powers can cooperate in the production of global public goods, while competing in other areas. The relationship between the United States and China is a "cooperative rivalry", in which competition conditions will require equal attention on both sides of the oxymoron. Biden's policy success depends largely on the attitude of the Chinese side, but also on the changes the United States is making. In addition, the United States has financial power due to its global institutions and the international hegemony of the dollar. While China aspires to take on a larger financial role on a global scale, a credible reserve currency depends on its convertibility, liquid and stable capital markets, honest government and the rule of law - what is lacking in China. The United States also has demographic advantages: its workforce is growing, while China has begun to decline.
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The United States has also remained at the forefront of key technologies, and its research universities dominate the world's higher education rankings. At the same time, China invests heavily in research and development; now competes in some areas and is trying to become a world leader in artificial intelligence by 2030. Given the importance of automatic learning as a general-purpose technology, Chinese advances in artificial intelligence are particularly significan [7].
The second possible scenario is aimed at intensifying sino-American rivalry. As China continues to grow, America's share of the world economy will remain below nearly 25%. Moreover, the rise of other powers will make it even more difficult for the US to manifest itself in the international arena, which is not accepted by the White House, including in relation to China.
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