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160 n 0 Q IMPROVING UZBEKISTAN'S POSITION IN INTERNATIONAL RATINGS L U L O AND INDEXES: THEORY, PRACTICE, AND STRATEGY
SECTION: EFFECTIVE STRATEGIES FOR IMPROVING UZBEKISTAN'S POSITION IN INTERNATIONAL RANKINGS AND INDICES A FUTURE ORIENTED STRATEGY TO IMPROVE UZBEKISTAN'S POSITION IN INTERNATIONAL RANKINGS AND INDICES.
1Umidakhon Narimanova 2Jordi Serra del Pino 1Fellow & Consultant Coordinator of Central Asian Network of the Centre for Postnormal Policy & Futures Studies 2Deputy Director of the Centre for Postnormal Policy & Futures Studies
(London, Barcelona) https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10136932 Abstract. Uzbekistan, like any sovereign state, strives to actively develop and improve its positions on the international arena. Currently, one of the important indicators of a country's progress and competitiveness is international rankings and indices. They reflect various aspects of the country's economic, social, political, and technological development. This has significant strategic importance for the country. In this connection, in 2020, the Decree of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, No. DP-6003 "On improving the positions of the Republic of Uzbekistan in international ratings and indices, as well as implementation in government bodies and organisations of new mechanisms of working with them on systematic basis " was issued. Reforms thatfocus on safeguarding human rights, raising the standards of living of the population, guaranteeing freedom of economic activity, enhancing material and procedural norms in the judicial and legal sphere yield positive results in the country's indicators in international rankings and indices. But it is also necessary to consider the bigger picture. In a hyperconnected world where artificial intelligence is beginning to bloom, it is relevant to consider the relevance of these indices and rankings.
In this paper, the authors discuss ways to improve Uzbekistan's positions in the Human Development Index and the Global Innovation Index. One of the key factors influencing the country's positions in these indices is the level of human capital, which includes knowledge, skills, and education of the population. The paper briefly discusses the role of quality education in the development of human capital and proposes specific strategies to increase its level. Finally the paper will include an anticipatory part trying to explore the future evolution of education in Uzbekistan using the three tomorrows approach as described by Sardar and Sweeney and Serra.
The purpose of this paper is to consider effective strategies to improve Uzbekistan's positions in the Human Development Index and the Global Innovation Index by increasing human capital through the integration of university brand management not just for the short term, but also for the mid and long term as well. The study shows that effective university brand management implementation contributes to the development of human capital, which in turn will allow developing the intellectual potential of the nation, attracting investments in research activities, promoting innovative development and raising the standard of living for citizens of Uzbekistan.
The paper will discuss the main factors influencing the country's positions in these indices and provide practical recommendations for their improvement.
Keywords: world rankings, HDI, GII, university brand management, three tomorrows, foresight, postnormal times
Аннотация. Узбекистон щр цандай мустацил давлат сингари халцаро майдондаги уз мавцеини фаол ривожлантириш ва яхшилашга интилади. Халцаро рейтинг ва индекслар $озирги вацтда мамлакат тарацциёти ва рацобатбардошлигининг мущм курсаткичларидан биридир. Улар мамлакатнинг ицтисодий, ижтимоий, сиёсий ва
0 n 0 Q IMPROVING UZBEKISTAN'S POSITION IN INTERNATIONAL RATINGS L U L O AND INDEXES: THEORY, PRACTICE, AND STRATEGY
технологик ривожланишининг турли жиуатларини акс эттиради. Бу мамлакат учун мууим стратегик ауамиятга эга. Шу аснода, 2020 йил "Узбекистон Республикасининг халцаро рейтинг ва индекслардаги уринини яхшилаш уамда давлат органлари ва ташкилотларида улар билан тизимли ишлашнинг янги механизмини жорий цилиш тугрисида"ги Узбекистон Республикаси Президентининг ПФ-6003-сон фармони чицарилди. Инсон ууцуцларини уимоя цилиш, ауоли турмуш даражасини ошириш, ицтисодий фаолият эркинлигини кафолатлаш, суд-ууцуц соуасидаги моддий ва процессуал нормаларни такомиллаштиришга царатилган ислоуотлар мамлакатнинг халцаро рейтинг ва индекслардаги курсаткичларига кура ижобий натижалар бермоцда. Бироц масалага уар тарафлама кенг назар балан цараш зарур. Сунъий ацл ривожлана бошлаган гипер-богланган дунёда ушбу индекслар ва рейтингларнинг долзарблигини уисобга олиш мууимдир.
Ушбу мацолада муаллифлар Узбекистоннинг Инсон Тарацциёти Индекси ва Глобал Инновациялар Индексидаги урнини яхшилаш йулларини мууокама циладилар. Ушбу индексларда мамлакатнинг мавцеига таъсир цилувчи асосий омиллардан бири бу ауолининг билимлари, куникмалари ва билимларини уз ичига олган инсон капитали даражасидир. Мацолада сифатли таълимнинг инсон капиталини ривожлантиришдаги урни цисцача мууокама цилинади ва унинг даражасини оширишнинг аниц стратегиялари таклиф этилади. Ва нщоят, мацолада Сардар, Суини ва Серралар томонидан таърифланган "уч эрта" ёндашувидан фойдаланган уолда Узбекистонда таълимнинг келажакдаги эволюциясини урганишга дастлабки уаракатлар талцин цилинади.
Ушбу мацоланинг мацсади нафацат цисца муддатда, балки урта ва узоц муддатли истицболда университет брендларини бошцаришни татбиц цилиш орцали инсон капиталини ошириш ила Узбекистоннинг Инсон Тарацциёти Индекси ва Глобал Инновациялар Индексидаги мавцеини оширишнинг самарали стратегияларини куриб чицишдан иборат. Тадцицот шуни курсатадики, университетнинг бренд менежментини самарали амалга ошириш инсон капиталини ривожлантиришга ёрдам беради, бу эса уз навбатида миллатнинг интеллектуал салоуиятини ривожлантиради, илмий-тадцицот фаолиятига инвестицияларни жалб цилади, инновацион ривожланишга ёрдам беради ва Узбекистон фуцароларининг турмуш даражасини яхшилайди.
Мацолада мамлакатнинг ушбу индекслардаги мавцеига таъсир цилувчи асосий омиллар куриб чицилган ва уларни такомиллаштириш буйича амалий тавсиялар берилган.
Калит сузлар: дунё рейтинглари, ИТИ, ГИИ, университет брендини бошцариш, уч эрта, форсайт, постодатий вацт
Аннотация. Узбекистан, как любое суверенное государство, стремится активно развиваться и улучшать свои позиции на международной арене. В настоящее время одним из важных показателей прогресса и конкурентоспособности страны являются международные рейтинги и индексы. Они отражают различные аспекты экономического, социального, политического и технологического развития страны. Это имеет стратегическое значение для страны. В этой связи в 2020 году был издан Указ Президента Республики Узбекистан № УП-6003 "Об улучшении позиций Республики Узбекистан в международных рейтингах и индексах, а также внедрении нового механизма системной работы с ними в государственных органах и организациях". Реформы, направленные на защиту прав человека, повышение уровня жизни населения, гарантирование свободы экономической деятельности, совершенствование материальных и процессуальных норм в
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судебно-правовой сфере, дают положительные результаты по показателям страны в международных рейтингах и индексах. Но необходимо также рассмотреть более широкую картину. В гиперсвязанном мире, где искусственный интеллект начинает расцветать, важно учитывать актуальность этих индексов и рейтингов.
В этой статье авторы обсуждают пути улучшения позиций Узбекистана в Индексе Человеческого Развития и Глобальном Инновационном Индексе. Одним из ключевых факторов, влияющих на позиции страны в этих индексах, является уровень человеческого капитала, который включает в себя знания, навыки и образованность населения. В статье кратко обсуждается роль качественного образования в развитии человеческого капитала и предлагаются конкретные стратегии повышения его уровня.
В заключении, статья будет включать в себя предварительный фрагмент, в которой будут предприняты попытки исследовать будущую эволюцию образования в Узбекистане с использованием подхода "трех завтра", описанного Сардаром и Суини, и Серра.
Целью данной статьи является рассмотрение эффективных стратегий улучшения позиций Узбекистана в Индексе человеческого развития и Глобальном инновационном индексе путем увеличения человеческого капитала посредством внедрения управления университетским брендом не только в краткосрочной, но и в средне- и долгосрочной перспективе. Исследование показывает, что эффективная реализация бренд-менеджмента университета способствует развитию человеческого капитала, что в свою очередь позволит развивать интеллектуальный потенциал нации, привлекать инвестиции в научно-исследовательскую деятельность, стимулировать инновационное развитие и повышать уровень жизни граждан Узбекистана.
В статье будут рассмотрены основные факторы, влияющие на позиции страны в этих индексах, и даны практические рекомендации по их улучшению.
Ключевые слова: мировые рейтинги, ИЧР, ГИИ, управление брендом университета, три завтра, форсайт, постпривычное время
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX
The Human Development Index (HDI) has been published by UNDP since 1990 (until 2013 - Human Development Report). The HDI is a statistical indicator that is used to measure the level of human development in various countries. It takes into account factors such as life expectancy, education and standard of living. The HDI is calculated and published annually by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). The higher the HDI, the higher is the level of development in the country. It evaluates indicators on three key social factors: life expectancy, education and gross national income.
In 2016, Uzbekistan ranked 114th out of 188 countries and territories with an indicator of 0.675 (the maximum value is 1,000) HDI. In 2019, Uzbekistan improved the result by ranking 106th in the list of 189 countries of the world with 0.720 HDI value. The country entered the category with a high HDI, while its indicator is below the average for countries in this group (0.753) and below the average for countries in Europe and Central Asia (0.791).
Human Development Index. Central Asian countries
Country 2016 2019 2022
NOVEMBER 17
2023
INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC AND PRACTICAL CONFERENCE
IMPROVING UZBEKISTAN'S POSITION IN INTERNATIONAL RATINGS AND INDEXES: THEORY, PRACTICE, AND STRATEGY
rank HDI value rank HDI value rank HDI value
188 countries 189 countries 191 countries
Kazakhstan 56 0.788 51 0,825 56 0,811
Turkmenistan 109 0.688 111 0,715 91 0,745
Uzbekistan 114 0.675 106 0,720 101 0,727
Kyrgyzstan 120 0.655 120 0,697 118 0,692
Tajikistan 129 0.624 125 0,668 122 0,685
Among Central Asian countries, Kazakhstan ranked 51st in the index (0.825), Turkmenistan - 111th (0.715), Kyrgyzstan - 120th (0.697) and Tajikistan - 125th (0.668). In 2022, Uzbekistan rose to 101st place in the list of 191 countries of the world with an indicator of 0.727 HDI. The increase in Uzbekistan's position in the rating indicates that the country has made significant efforts in the field of social and economic development.
THE GLOBAL INNOVATION INDEX
The Global Innovation Index (GII) is published by the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) together with a network of academic partners. It is a comprehensive index that evaluates and ranks innovative opportunities and results in various countries. The GII project was launched by Soumitra Dutta, Dean of the Said Business School at Oxford University, in 2007 during his tenure at INSEAD. WIPO's cooperation with the GII began in 2011, and in 2012, it started the co-publication of the GII. In 2013, Cornell University joined as a co-publisher, Professor Dutta represented the GII at Cornell University, and Bruno Lanvin represented INSEAD.
The GII consists of 81 indicators and characterises the innovative development of countries at different levels of economic development. This index is calculated based on the average value of the indicators of the two groups. The first group includes the available resources and conditions for the integration of innovation (Innovation Input) - institutions, human capital and research, infrastructure, the internal market and the level of business development. The second group includes the practical results achieved during the integration of innovations (Innovation Output) -the development of technologies and the knowledge economy, as well as the results of creative activity. The GII allows countries to compare their innovation capabilities and results with other countries and use this information to formulate development strategies and improve their innovation potential. It also helps investors, businesses and researchers in making decisions about investing resources and developing new ideas and technologies.
According to WIPO's Global Innovation Index (GII) 2023, Switzerland, Sweden, the United States, the United Kingdom and Singapore are the five most innovative economies in the world. Notably, a group of middle-income economies has emerged as the fastest climbers in the GII ranking over the past decade. Uzbekistan ranked 82nd among 132 economies. This year Uzbekistan ranks 72nd in terms of investments in innovation. This position is lower than last year (68th). In terms of the volume of innovative developments, Uzbekistan ranks 88th, this position is
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higher than last year (91st). Uzbekistan has demonstrated higher results in the field of innovation for the second year in a row.
The Global Innovation Index. Uzbekistan
Year GII Position Innovation Input Innovation output
2015 122nd 112nd 127th
2020 93rd 81st 118th
2021 86th 75th 100th
2022 82nd 68th 91th
2023 82nd 72nd 88th
In September 201 8, the first Strategy for Innovative Development of Uzbekistan for 2019
- 2021 was approved (No. DP-5544, dated September 21, 2018). The main goal of the strategy is defined as "the development of human capital as the main factor determining the level of a country's competitiveness on the world stage and its innovative progress". Among the main objectives of the strategy is Uzbekistan to join the ranks of the top 50 advanced countries by 2030 according to the rating of the Global Innovation Index. As a result of the implementation of the Strategy, significant progress has been achieved in ensuring and stimulating innovative and technological progress in various sectors of the economy and social sphere, including agriculture, energy, construction, education, and healthcare.
In 2022, the Strategy for Innovative Development of the Republic of Uzbekistan for 20222026 (No. DP-165, dated July 6, 2022) was adopted with the aim of accelerating innovation development in the country, widespread implementation of innovations and technologies in all sectors of the economy, and development of human capital, science, and innovation. The main goal of the Strategy is to develop a continuous ecosystem of "industry-region-scientific/higher educational organisation" from creating new jobs to generating economic value (capital) in the formation of a creative economy in the country. The primary objective is for the country to enter the top 56 advanced countries in the world according to the Global Innovation Index ranking by 2026.
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX & GLOBAL INNOVATION INDEX
The Human Development Index (HDI) and the Global Innovation Index (GII) are two different indicators that measure different aspects of a country's development. Both indices are significant for Uzbekistan. Improving the level of human development contributes to enhancing the quality of life for citizens, education, and healthcare. At the same time, enhancing the innovation potential helps the country to develop economically, attract investments, and create jobs. The priority tasks for Uzbekistan include developing innovative infrastructure, stimulating scientific research and development, improving the accessibility of quality education and healthcare, as well as supporting entrepreneurship and innovative startups.
Despite the differences between the two indices, they have one point of convergence - the development of human capital can improve the indicators of both the HDI and the GII.
In the case of the HDI, investments in human capital, such as education and healthcare, can lead to an increase in the level of education, life expectancy, and quality of life, as well as
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improving the accessibility and quality of healthcare services. This, in turn, can lead to improvements in the HDI indicators such as life expectancy, education level, and standard of living.
In the case of the GII, the development of human capital can contribute to the enhancement of a country's innovation potential. Investments in education, scientific research and development, skills development, and technical training can foster the development and attraction of talent, the creation of innovations, and the growth of entrepreneurship. This can improve the GII indicators, such as investments in research and development, technology availability and innovation activity.
The development of human capital can have a positive impact on the indicators of both indices, promoting improvements in quality of life, education, healthcare, innovation potential, and economic development of a country.
HUMAN CAPITAL
The peculiarity of a knowledge-based innovation economy is that it allows for a leap forward and the creation of an efficient and competitive economy in a relatively short period of time. This means transitioning from "catching up" economies to economies with advanced development. Human capital is the main driver of innovation and a dynamic innovative economy, characterised by being well-educated, creative, and motivated for success.
For the competitiveness and innovative progress of a country on the global stage, a high-quality and up-to-date education system and a strong scientific foundation are necessary. This includes quality university education that meets international standards, as it forms the basis of human capital. The approach should be holistic, focusing not only on higher education but also on the comprehensive development of preschool, secondary, and postgraduate education systems, as they are interconnected and influence the overall outcome of an desired innovative economy. Despite the importance of human capital, access to quality education is not always evenly distributed. Uzbekistan will be able to reach advanced frontiers only through education, involving all segments of the population. To achieve competitiveness and foster innovation, it is crucial for Uzbekistan to prioritise education at all levels and ensure equal access for all.
The educational market in Uzbekistan has undergone significant changes over the past 5 years, with targeted and large-scale efforts being carried out to reform the education sector. The number of universities in the country has increased from 72 in 2017 to 210 in 2023, including 115 public HEIs, 65 non-state HEIs, and 30 foreign HEIs. There is active development in the nongovernmental sector of higher education.
On one hand, the growth in the number of universities has a positive aspect, as it implies healthy competition and the development of the education industry, which should ultimately benefit the consumers. However, solely evaluating the success of education based on quantitative growth may be insufficient and may not always reflect the true state of affairs in higher education. It is important to consider other factors such as the quality of education, the relevance of the curriculum, the qualifications of faculty members, and the availability of resources and facilities. A comprehensive evaluation that takes into account both quantitative and qualitative aspects is necessary to ensure the overall improvement of the higher education system in Uzbekistan.
The current quantitative growth of universities in the country speaks more about the marketisation of the education sector rather than improvement in the quality of education and compliance with international standards, let alone consumer orientation. A clear concept for the development of higher education is necessary. Universities should become a pillar and a source of human capital, producing highly qualified specialists who are in demand at present and in the near
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future. Each university should find its specific segment and purposefully align its activities to cater to its potential consumers and stakeholders. They should strive to be attractive in terms of offering relevant programmes and aim to build their reputation by practising a holistic approach. It is crucial to shift the focus from quantity to quality and ensure that the expansion of universities aligns with the goals of providing high-quality education, meeting international standards, and addressing the needs of the labour market. This can be achieved through well-defined development strategies, continuous monitoring and evaluation, collaboration with industry and international partners, and investment in faculty development, research, and infrastructure.
Universities offering high-quality and relevant education are in demand, are a kind of educational brands with a strong reputation image and constructively adjusted management aimed at results. Effective university brand management plays an important role in enhancing human capital. A university brand associated with high-quality education, academic prestige, and successful graduate employment not only attracts, but also nurtures talented students and highly qualified faculty members, who are valuable assets and driving forces for progress and development of the country. Furthermore, universities with a good reputation can attract students from abroad, which contribute to cultural exchange and the influx of foreign investments. A reputable university brand acts as a magnet for investment in education and scientific research, as well as promotes the development of research and innovation, which favours the advancement of the country's scientific potential and enhances its competitiveness in the international education market.
The quality of education and research conducted at a university contribute to the development of skills, knowledge, and critical thinking among students and graduates. This, in turn, increases their competitiveness in the job market and facilitates their career growth, which is crucial for achieving personal and professional success in modern society. Highly qualified university graduates can become the engine of innovation and development in various sectors of the economy, contributing to the country's economic growth.
IMPROVING UZBEKISTAN'S PERFORMANCE IN THE GLOBAL INNOVATION INDEX AND THE HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX
World-renowned universities are considering the implementation of the "University 5.0" concept, there are universities already practising the "University 4.0" concept, however, many universities are still considered to be in the "University 3.0" format. Uzbekistan is also planning to integrate this concept. Although the readiness of Uzbekistan's universities to implement the "University 3.0" concept may vary, nevertheless, universities should strive for continuous development and improvement to meet the demands of modern society and provide quality education. The "University 3.0" concept is a long-term and gradual transformation that requires joint efforts from universities, the government, students, and the public.
Conceptual universities will be able to play an important role in improving Uzbekistan's performance in the GII and the HDI. To achieve this, the following measures should be implemented:
1. Quality education: Universities should provide quality education that meets international standards. This includes modern programmes, active use of innovative teaching methods, development of critical thinking skills, research work, and a creative approach to problem-solving.
2. Research activities: Universities should actively develop research activities, encourage and support their faculty and students to conduct original research. This will help create an innovative environment that promotes the development of new knowledge and technologies.
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3. Partnership with businesses and industries : Universities should actively collaborate with businesses and industrial enterprises for the development and implementation of innovations. This can include joint research projects, student internships, the establishment of startup incubators, and technology parks.
4. Attracting foreign students and faculty : Universities should strive for international recognition and attract talented students and faculty from other countries. This will help create a multicultural environment that promotes knowledge and experience exchange.
5. Entrepreneurship and innovation startups: Universities should support entrepreneurial activity among their students and graduates. This can be achieved through the creation of startup incubators and accelerators, providing financial and advisory support, organising events, and networking platforms for knowledge sharing.
6. Development of online education: Universities should actively develop online education to make it more accessible and flexible. Creating online courses and programmes will expand access to education for people in remote areas or with limited opportunities to attend traditional universities.
To enable universities to contribute successfully to improving Uzbekistan's indicators in innovation and human development, it is necessary to create a favourable environment and provide the following resources:
- Funding: Universities should be provided with sufficient funding to develop infrastructure, research activities, and update educational programmes.
- Personnel: It is necessary to attract and support highly qualified teachers and researchers, as well as create conditions for their professional growth and development.
- Partnership: Universities should actively collaborate with government agencies, business communities, and non-governmental organisations to create a favourable environment for innovation and education.
- International cooperation: Universities should develop partnerships with leading international universities and research centres for exchange of experience, joint research, and internships.
- Infrastructure and accessibility: Universities should provide modern educational and research laboratories, access to up-to-date information resources, research databases, cutting-edge technologies and create conditions for accessibility of education for all segments of the population.
The adoption of these measures will help Uzbekistan to increase human capital. This will contribute to improving the quality of education, fostering scientific research and innovation, collaborating with industrial partners, supporting students, and expanding access to education. As a result, the country will have highly qualified professionals capable of contributing to Uzbekistan's economic and social development, enhancing the country's innovativeness and competitiveness, improving the quality of life for its citizens, and attracting investments. Economic and social development of Uzbekistan will increase the level of innovation and competitiveness, improve the quality of life for the population, and reduce poverty and inequality. Thus, universities, by acting as centres of knowledge and innovation, can significantly contribute to the improvement of Uzbekistan's indicators in the Global Innovation Index and the Human Development Index.
FUTURE EVOLUTION
In order to provide some insight about how higher education may evolve in Uzbekistan and how it may correlate with its positioning in the Human Development Index and the Global
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Innovation Index, we will apply the Three tomorrows approach. Originally developed by Sardar and Sweeney in 2016, the three tomorrows was conceived as a method to anticipate the future within the framework of postnormal times theory.
Postnormal times first appeared as concept to define the current epoch in 2010 in a paper by Ziauddin Sardar, since then it has evolved into a theory of change that is being advanced by the Centre for Postnormal Policy & Futures Studies. The essence of this theory is that the present historical period is characterised by higher levels of complexity and non linear behaviour that also prompts more contradictions in all the aspects of our societies. The centre has already successfully applied its theory in Malaysia developing a policy framework, SCRIPT/Madani and in Bosnia, generating a guide to improve education, SAFER.
Be as it may, the combination of these higher levels of complexity, chaos, and contradictions that characterise postnormal times has another effect, the transformation of change that now shows new features: higher speed, bigger scope, rising potential for escalating impacts and the irruption of simultaneous changes. In such a context being able to foresee what may happen becomes even more challenging as Jones et al proved with Covid-19. And because of all these elements and features, the present moment is very hard to anticipate using traditional futures studies techniques; hence the need for a particular method. However, the three tomorrows did not work as a method. But they proved to be very useful as an approach as Serra stated. What the three tomorrows allow us to do is to engage in a more comprehensive research of the future, every tomorrow requires a particular focus that forces the researcher to be more thorough about his work.
The first tomorrow uses the acquired experience and the knowledge we have gained from it. It relies on hard evidence from what has happened so far and projects the future based on what we have learned in the present. That is why its name is Extended Present. What extended present we can build in this case:
Education Market
In this scenario Uzbekistan keeps its previous strategy on quantitative growth. But without a clear national strategy the results are uneven. Some universities do manage to improve their teaching standards while developing solid research in some topics; these top universities are the ones that take most of the private investments and also the main destination for foreign students. But the rest of universities are unable to catch up with the top ones and, because of all this, the overall Uzbek development is irregular and therefore the national rankings do not show relevant improvements.
The truth is that most universities are struggling to get enough students and let promotional activities take over the development of true marketing strategies. Even the top universities fall in this trap. Even though they are doing far better than the average universities, they realise that they also depend on enrolment and thus, tailor their educational offer to what they believe the market demands. This has a snowball effect in which trying to define national strategies becomes harder and harder; not only that the competition in all Central Asia gets tougher with other countries offering funds and grants to foreign students.
At some point the government decides to support the top universities in the hope that they can act as a motor for the whole national higher education system. But it does not really work and while Uzbekistan manages to score really high in some fields, disciplines or sectors, the overall ranking does not improve enough for the whole country. And the reason is because the logic of the market is not aimed at allowing Uzbekistan to advance its educational system, no. The market just focuses on where there is most money to be made, and this logic will legitimise an institution's
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growth, even if it at the cost of other institutions decline. As soon as you let the market dictate how to run education, the student's improvement or learning will become secondary, and the primary task will be to produce outputs (being them grades or graduated students) and, subsequently profits.
And yes, those students that can afford the top universities will be happy and will probably feel as part of the country's elite. But, will that make Uzbekistan education better?
The second tomorrow is the kind of scenario that introduces new elements of which we have little information or none. Because of this we can resort to other sources like speculation or fiction. For instance, long before we could interact with robots we have developed a wide corpus of theory and fiction on them, we have even developed laws to deal with them. That is why the second tomorrow is called Familiar futures, because we may not have a lot of data on them, but they are not unknown to us. And the Familiar future is this case is
Education Strategy
The Uzbekistan government is determined to make the strategy to take Uzbek universities to 3.0 level, just the starting point to move on to 4.0 and, eventually, to University 5.0. The deployment of a holistic policy based on national strategy to improve the quality of higher education. The strategy comprises several elements like a benchmarking exercise and the design of new strategic goals. It is not just a question of increasing the education budget, it is also an effort to determine where this investment would pay off the most and, ultimately, improve the overall country's well-being. Thus a particular effort is made to retain national talent, not just by offering higher honoraries, but by making them a substantial part of the country's strategy.
Additionally, a set of tax benefits is deployed to encourage local economic agents to invest in Uzbek universities. In return, the universities become more sensitive to the needs of their country. Not only that, the strategy promotes the establishment of key alliances with foreign universities and educational institutions. Soon UNESCO recognises the Uzbek accomplishments and supports its strategy as it can be useful for other countries.
The results of the strategy are not immediate, but after a while the improvement in the different rankings begins to be perceivable and, after some years, the outcomes are significant and, even better, gain momentum. Yet, the key in this scenario is the government capacity to generate consensus around its strategy. The enactment of different policies, laws included, will fall short unless the whole educational community and the main social actors support the government strategy. Thus the key is to get all these actors in the strategy as soon as possible so they become its main champions instead of hurdles.
The third tomorrow takes us to analyse why we think in particular ways about the future. Why do certain images seem to invoke the future more easily than others? In short it forces us to go deeper into the assumptions and axioms that conform our future images and, sometimes get us wrong. And many times the foundation of our analysis object is taken for granted, assumed implicitly, instead of presented explicitly. In postnormal times theories these unsaid elements of future images are called unthought and, too frequently, they constitute the core of those questions whose evolution we do not want to negotiate. Logically, the third tomorrow is labelled Unthought futures.
Learning Education
One of the main assumptions in academia is that learning is the natural consequence of teaching. Thus, if we put enough effort into education, students will learn. Yet, this is not always the case, the truth is that in no few occasions, the students learn despite the education.
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This scenario explores the possibility that Uzbekistan's government designs an educational strategy that places students' learning at the centre of its endeavour. Once the preliminary research to define and deploy the new strategy started, the Uzbek policy makers understood that in order to improve the nation's higher education, it was essential to create an accurate evaluation system. And that for that evaluation system to work it could not be based on the number of completed degrees but on the effective acquisition of competences. Likewise, the national economy was not looking for graduated students, but students that possessed the skills and talent required.
However, designing and implementing a new evaluation system was not a small deed and could be too challenging to begin with. So the strategy was divided into two phases. The first phase aimed at applying the international standards that have helped other places to improve their rankings. And the second one, working at a slower pace, defined a new evaluation system. The important part here was that this evaluation procedure also integrated a foresight part. Thus, every time the system would offer an assessment of the educational performance, it would also include insights on how to correct and improve any unsatisfactory aspect.
The key of this scenario is to use the momentum that the creation of a new strategy can generate to pave the way for a second, and more future oriented work. Because having more Uzbek students to graduate can be acceptable as an output, but the truly desirable outcome is to increase the skills and competencies of those students.
CONCLUSION
Uzbekistan's participation in world rankings and indices allows the country to assess its progress, identify strengths and weaknesses in various areas of development, and take measures to improve. This can contribute to the development of a more efficient and transparent system of public administration. Yet, any effort to improve the national public administration also needs to incorporate a future perspective that goes beyond the immediate. High rankings attract investments, strengthen reputation, and stimulate competitiveness. Improving Uzbekistan's reputation can lead to stronger business connections and enhance the country's prestige. This can be an important factor in accelerating Uzbekistan's economic and social development. Improving Uzbekistan's positions in international rankings and indices holds strategic significance for the country. It will attract more investments, improve the business climate, raise the standard of living for citizens, and strengthen the country's image on the international arena. But if we accept that we are living in times of higher complexity, increasing speed and continuous uncertainty (regardless if we label these times as postnormal or not), the development and implementation of effective strategies are an absolute top priority for Uzbekistan.
To focus on how to improve Uzbekistan's positions in international rankings and indices may be a sensible initial strategy as they require a comprehensive approach and collaboration among various sectors of society. This includes government bodies, the business community, academic and research institutions, as well as civil society. In a secondary stage, the country should strengthen its anticipatory capacity by developing its own foresight skills.
Quality education in developing countries has several key advantages. Firstly, it is a crucial factor in the development of human capital, allowing individuals to develop their skills and knowledge, enhance their competitiveness in the labour market, and improve their living conditions. Secondly, quality education contributes to the elimination of inequality by providing equal opportunities for all segments of the population, including the poor and marginalised groups. Thirdly, it promotes economic growth as educated individuals contribute to innovation, entrepreneurship, and increased labour productivity. Quality education also has a positive impact
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on healthcare, well-being, and social development in society. It plays an important role in ensuring sustainable development, improving living standards, and achieving social progress.
Effective university brand management significantly enhances the efficiency of human capital development in a country by attracting and retaining talent, strengthening connections with industries and the business community, fostering entrepreneurship and innovation, promoting international collaboration, and engaging graduates.
In recent years, the Uzbekistan government has been actively working on modernization and development of universities. Steps have been taken to improve infrastructure, develop digital technologies, and design new educational programmes that align with the concept of the "University 3.0". However, overall, Uzbekistan's universities still face some challenges and obstacles that may hinder the full implementation of the "University 3.0" concept. Some of these issues include limited financial resources, lack of necessary training and education for staff, and the existing traditional education system, which may be less flexible and innovative. But it is also necessary to place this debate in a future oriented framework that allows the country to regularly assess the validity of its policies in the mid and long term.
At the end of the day, it is important to understand that improving rankings in innovation and human development indices is a long-term process that involves not only the efforts of universities, but also other sectors of the economy and society. The process of improving rankings is not static, and strategies and measures need to be constantly updated and adapted to changing conditions and country needs. Maintaining consistency and coherence in implementing measures, with constant effort, purposefulness, and the right strategies, can lead to significant progress in achieving Uzbekistan's development goals.
General Recommendations:
To improve Uzbekistan's performance in the Human Development Index and the Global Innovation Index, the following actions should be taken:
1. In the field of innovation:
- Increase investments in research and development.
- Include a foresight perspective in this aspect.
- Support and develop innovative startups and entrepreneurship.
- Improve the system of intellectual property protection.
- Create and develop innovation clusters and technoparks.
- Improve access to financing for innovative projects.
2. In the field of human development:
- Improve accessibility and quality of education at all levels.
- Evaluate the performance of the different actors according to the learning achievements of its students.
- Develop a system of vocational education and training.
- Promote the improvement of healthcare and accessibility of medical services.
- Create conditions for decent employment and income improvement for the population.
- Support equality and justice in society.
3. Improve infrastructure and business environment:
- Develop transportation and energy infrastructure.
- Improve conditions for entrepreneurship and attracting investments.
- Simplify business registration procedures and obtaining permits.
- Improve the legal system and property rights protection.
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- Help economic actors to increase their anticipatory capacities.
- Develop digital infrastructure and information technology.
4. Promote innovation and human development in regions:
- Expand access to innovation resources and technologies in regions.
- Help all the regions to improve their foresight skills.
- Support the development of small and medium-sized businesses in regions.
- Develop educational and research centres in regions.
- Improve accessibility of medical services and social programmes in regions.
These measures will help Uzbekistan improve its performance in the fields of innovation
and human development, ultimately leading to sustainable and improving economic and social
development of the country.
REFERENCES
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2. Sardar, Ziauddin and Sweeney, John A. (2016). "The Three Tomorrows of Postnormal Times", Futures 75 1-13
3. Serra del Pino, J. (2021). "Building Scenarios with the Three Tomorrows" in World Futures Review, Vol. 13(2) 101-114
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9. Uzbekistan has risen by 4 positions in the Global Innovation Index and ranked 3rd among the countries of Central and South Asia after India and Iran. (2022, September 9). https://mininnovation.uz. Retrieved October 13, 2023, from https://mininnovation.uz/oz/news/post-865
10. Wipo. (n.d.). Global Innovation Index 2023, 15th Edition. Retrieved on October 10, 2023, from https://www.wipo.int/pressroom/en/articles/2023/article_0011.html
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11. Wipo. (2023). Uzbekistan ranking in the Global Innovation Index 2023. Global Innovation Index 2023. Retrieved on October 13, 2023, from https://www.wipo.int/edocs/pubdocs/en/wipo-pub-2000-2023/uz.pdf
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15. №DP-165 dated 06.07.2022. On approval of the strategy of innovative development of the Republic of Uzbekistan for 2022-2026. (2022, July 6). Retrieved October 12, 2023, https://lex.uz/docs/6102462
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19. The number of private HEIs in Uzbekistan has increased to 65. (2023, February 23). UzReport.news. Retrieved October 10, 2023, from https://uzreport.news/society/ozbekistonda-xususiy-otmlar-soni-65-taga-yetdi
20. Carayannis, E.G., Morawska, J. (2023). University and Education 5.0 for Emerging Trends, Policies and Practices in the Concept of Industry 5.0 and Society 5.0. In: Machado, C.F., Davim, J.P. (eds) Industry 5.0. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-26232-6_1
21. Kuznetsov, E. B., Engovatova, A. A. (2016). "Universities 4.0": points of growth of the knowledge economy in Russia. INNOVATIONS, No. 5 (211).
22. According to the Decree of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan "On the Approval of the Concept for the Development of the Higher Education System of the Republic of Uzbekistan until 2030" (DP-5847, dated October, 2019), a phased implementation of the "University 3.0" concept is planned, which involves close integration of education, science, innovation, and commercialization of research outcomes in higher education institutions. https://lex.uz/docs/4545884
23. Sardar, Ziauddin (2010). "Welcome to postnormal times". Futures 42 (5) 435-444
For more information on the CPPFS check: https://www.cppfs.org and to learn more about the postnormal times theory you can go to https://postnormaltim.es
24. SCRIPT can be found here https://postnormaltim.es/script Jones, C., Serra del Pino, J, and Mayo, L. (2021). "The Perfect Postnormal Storm: COVID-19 Chronicles (2020 Edition)" in World Futures Review, Vol. 13(2) 71-85
Ibid 2021
