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1
. Baltic Journal of Economic Studies Vol. 7 No. 4, 2021 -J--
DOI: https://doi.org/10.30525/2256-0742/2021-7-4-231-242
SCIENTIFIC APPROACH TO DETERMINING THE VECTORS OF INNOVATIVE DEVELOPMENT OF INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISES
Alla Dunska1, Kateryna Boiarynova2, Maryna Kravchenko3
Abstract. The purpose of the paper is to form a scientific and methodological approach to determining the vectors of innovative development of industrial enterprises as a tool for establishing the trajectory of innovation in terms of development of innovation potential and environmental impact. Correlation analysis of these factors as indicators of external (external environment of the enterprise) and internal (innovative potential) environment based on the nature and direction of influences allows to establish the vector of development, and the construction of a forecast model of economic results confirms its correctness. Methodology. The research used its own methodological developments, correlation analysis, formed the parameters of the external environment, innovation potential, the results of enterprises. The approach was tested at the enterprises of the pulp and paper industry of Ukraine, which proved its effectiveness and efficiency. Results. The ideology of the proposed approach on the combination of organizational and managerial aspects of innovative development with economic indicators is formed and substantiated. The types of target innovation orientation of the enterprise, which is formed into a bipolar matrix, are determined. Based on the corresponding trajectory of the transition between the components of the matrix, three key vectors of development are formed: innovation-adaptive, innovation-balanced, innovation-concentrated. Practical implications. On the example of enterprises of the pulp and paper industry their vectors of development, forecast indicators of profit and sales revenues as an economic effect of following the vector direction and the trajectory of innovation are designed. Value/originality. The developed scientific and methodological approach involves the establishment of the vector of innovative development of the enterprise on the interdependence of innovation potential and the nature of the impact of the external environment, which provides an opportunity to predict the results of its operation.
Key words: innovative development, vectors, industrial enterprise, methodical approach. JEL Classification: O32, M11, L65.
1. Introduction
The slowdown in economic growth of processing industries of the national economy, due to changes in the foreign economic vector of the country, the transformation of the nature and growth of competitive and economic relations, the need to revise innovation policy, is critical to ensure the efficiency of innovation of industrial enterprises. The implementation of progressive changes requires the systematic use of knowledge, the latest technologies, intangible assets, which determines innovation by the primary activators of the development of such enterprises. This stimulates
them to reconsider the principles of development management, especially in the context of paradigmatic changes in management theory in the direction of using innovative approaches, opportunities and mechanisms, rethinking classical development theories and forming a new methodological basis on the basis of modern concepts.
The problems of innovative development of enterprises today are considered through the prism of two main theories: the theory of development, which is based on the integrity of the enterprise as an economic system and focuses on the transformation of the system as a whole, and systems theory, which takes into
Corresponding author:
1 National Technical University of Ukraine «Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute», Ukraine. E-mail: alsu@i.ua
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8623-4507
ResearcherID: https://publons.com/researcher/2933513/alla-dunska/
2 National Technical University of Ukraine «Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute», Ukraine. E-mail: boyarinovaea@ukr.net
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5879-2213
3 National Technical University of Ukraine «Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute», Ukraine. E-mail: marina.kravchenko.kpi@gmail.com
ORCID: http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5405-0159
account structural features, processes that ensure the functioning of the enterprise as an economic system aimed at achieving the goal in the external environment, which is also determined by a certain structure and features.
The scientific basis of the theory of development and, in particular, the theory of innovative development is laid in the works of many domestic and foreign scientists, including M. Kondratieff (long wave theory) (Kondratieff, 2003), J. D. Bernal, G. Mensha (technological stalemate), A. Kleiknecht, S. Kuznets, B. Twiss, C. Freeman, J. Clark, L. Soete (Freeman, Clark, Soete, 1982), N. Nelson (the concept of the national innovation system), L. Leidesdorf (triple helix theory). In this direction it should be noted the works of J. Schumpeter (theory of economic development) (Schumpete, 1934), P. Drucker (theory of innovative economics of entrepreneurial type) (Drucker, 1993), who explored the entrepreneurial approach to development as an activator of innovation processes; discrete development on an innovative basis over time; the primacy of innovation compared to other activators of development, which form not only innovation but also business potential and develop new forms of business. Yu. Yakovets, S. Glazyeva (Yakovets, 2004; Glazyev, 2012), which identified the factors of innovative development of the enterprise within the fifth, sixth or seventh technological modes and innovation capacity of each of the factors of economic development. Acquisition of competitive advantages of development on the basis of innovations, formation of a policy of protection of large enterprises from competition of subversive innovations were devoted to works of M. Porter (theory of competitive advantages) (Porter, 1980), K. Christensen (concept of "subversive" innovations) (Christensen, 1997). Among the scientists developing the latest theories of innovative development are F. Jansen, F. Hayek (theory of intellectual technology) ( Jansen, 2000; Hayek, 2001), G. Itzkowitz (triple helix theory) (Itskowitz, 2010), H. Chesbrough (the concept of open innovation) (Chesbrough, 2003; 2006), P. Gloor (model of innovation collaboration networks) (Gloor, 2006 ), V. Hwang, G. Horowitt (concept "Tropical Forest of Innovations") (Hwang, Horowitt, 2012), which defined a set of patterns of innovative development: cyclical acquisition of innovative experience, the need for economic relations to accumulate intellectual potential and use it as a resource for innovative development; implementation of innovative development in the ecosystem at parity of economic interests of the enterprise with the subjects of interaction; use of the model of open innovations for formation of policy of economic behavior; creating innovations in the process of collaborative relationships with stakeholders. The scientific works of I. Ansoff, M. Zgurovsky (Zgurovsky, 2003), G. Kleiner
(Kleiner, 2012), J. Kornai (Kornai, 2002), G. Milner, M. Kravchenko (Kravchenko, 2017) are devoted to the problems of the system approach. and others.
Paying tribute to the significant contribution of these scientists, it should be noted that Ukrainian industry has a number of features, including lack of capital resources, obsolescence of technical and technological base, deformed management structure, which complicate, and sometimes impossible, the use of classical theories of enterprise development. approach to the transformation of economic systems. This necessitates a revision of the theoretical and methodological basis, which should be used in the management of industrial enterprises, based on the ontological connection of development theory and systems theory. This determines the objective need to form a scientific and methodological approach to determining the vectors of innovative development of industrial enterprises as a tool for establishing the trajectory of innovation in the development of innovation potential and environmental impact.
2. Organizational and managerial approach to ensuring innovative development
Ensuring the development of industrial enterprises should be based on the definition of a certain trajectory. At the same time, the formation of such a trajectory should take into account the external influences on the enterprise, the level of development of innovation potential, targets and orientation of the enterprise, which is set out in detail by the author in the works (Gavrysh, Dunska, Zhygalkevich, Kravchenko, 2019). In addition, the regulation of the trajectory in accordance with the targets of development should be based on the use of the results of systematic economic and managerial diagnostics, in the existing conditions, which allows to establish their inconsistency with the target level for management decisions to eliminate negative trends (Boiarynova, Kopishynska, Hryhorska, 2019; Gavrysh, Boiarynova, 2017).
The development of an industrial enterprise can be conditionally represented as the transition of the production and commercial system from one state to another, and the new state should have more progressive, qualitative and quantitative characteristics (Figure 1). The incentive to initiate the process of qualitative changes in the system and its transition to a new state are management decisions that are made at the industrial enterprise, and take into account the disturbances that occur in the external environment of enterprises.
To ensure the effective innovative development of an industrial enterprise, it is important to determine the conditions under which the system of goal-setting of the enterprise is formed: the economy is in a declining
or growing wave of market conditions. Trends in the external environment determine the nature of innovative development of an individual enterprise, in particular in terms of determining the predominant type of innovation that forms the basis of innovative development of the enterprise.
With this in mind in industrial enterprises under different environmental conditions, given the type of innovation that prevails, it is advisable to determine the set of organizational and functional subsystems that play a key role in innovation transformations -let's call it "enhanced action unit". This unit covers the functional units of the industrial enterprise, which are the main generators and consumers of innovation.
Thus, during the downturn of the economy, it is advisable for industrial enterprises to focus on active innovation on the basis of technical and technological, production innovations, which should result in new products, technologies, technical and technological solutions (Figure 2). At the peak of the economic situation on the growing wave of enterprises will try to maintain their position, and therefore they need to focus more on organizational and managerial and marketing innovations, which result in new approaches to managing the company or its departments, new methods of organization works, marketing innovations, market innovations, etc. (Figure 3).
At the same time, the role of processes that ensure consistency and implementation of innovative development is changing. In the declining wave, innovation development occurs through diagnostic and interaction processes, as technical and technological innovations involve a sufficiently high level of innovation potential of the enterprise, conducting its own research or attracting external sources of
innovative ideas, effective implementation of which depends on relationships between functional units.
From the given figures it is possible to draw a conclusion that at different stages of economic development it is expedient for the industrial enterprises to concentrate the efforts on various functional subsystems in structure of organizational maintenance of innovative development.
3. Types of targeted innovation orientation of the enterprise
Effective management of functional subsystems is carried out under the conditions of clear definition of the purposes which the enterprise aspires to reach, that is for maintenance of development at the enterprise its target innovative orientation should be specified.
Depending on the level of development of the innovative potential of the enterprise and the strength of the impact of the external environment in which the enterprise operates, we propose to identify seven types of targeted innovation orientation of industrial enterprises, namely:
1. Supportive - involves the operation of the enterprise in conditions of low level of innovation potential and low level of turbulence of the environment. Innovations do not have a high level of novelty, they have an improving character.
2. Preventive - appropriate for an enterprise that has an innovation potential below average, given the average level of turbulence in the environment and involves tracking adverse changes in certain parameters of the innovation potential of the enterprise and its environment.
3. Synergetic - takes place under the condition of strong stimulating influence of the external
Figure 1. Schematic representation of the process of industrial enterprise development
Source: generated by the author
Figure 2. Organizational support of innovative development
of an industrial enterprise in the declining wave of economic conditions
Source: developed by the author
Figure 3. Organizational support of innovative development
of an industrial enterprise in terms of ensuring sustainable development
Source: developed by the author
environment on the development of the enterprise and is recommended for those enterprises that have a high level of innovation potential, which allows to react in time to changes in the external environment.
4. Protective - provides an opportunity to operate in a high level of turbulence of the external environment and a low level of innovation potential of the enterprise, which necessitates the company to take immediate measures to resist external pressure by increasing the level of innovation potential.
5. Balanced - provides an opportunity for the company to be in equilibrium and choose the direction of its development in terms of the average level of development of innovation potential and the average level of environmental impact.
6. Absorbent - provides an opportunity to respond and "mitigate" the negative impact of the external environment due to a sufficiently high level of innovation potential.
7. Niche - focuses the company on the accumulation of resources for radical change, as it provides a strong innovative potential of the enterprise in a weak environment.
Each of the above types of innovation focuses on the need to identify appropriate strategies, programs and projects that are tools to ensure the development of the enterprise under a certain level of environmental impact and the level of development of innovation potential. In fig. 4 specifies which innovation strategies, programs and projects should be used to ensure effective innovative development of industrial enterprises within each of the identified types of targeted innovation.
It should be noted that the development of the enterprise is through the transformation of functional subsystems based on a set of processes of interaction, diagnosis, impact and provision. Therefore, for each type of targeted innovation, key processes and subsystems have been identified, which will primarily be involved in the process of innovation development (Figure 4).
In general, taking into account changes in the external environment and the innovative potential of the enterprise provides an opportunity to identify three vectors of development of the industrial enterprise:
1. Innovation-adaptive vector, which describes the company's intentions to adapt to the growing influence of the external environment without spending efforts to increase capacity.
2. Innovation-balanced vector, which characterizes the company's efforts to ensure its sustainable development in terms of increasing environmental impact.
3. Innovation-concentrated vector, which involves the concentration of efforts of the enterprise primarily on the development of its innovation potential.
4. Survey methodology
We propose to base the determination of the appropriate vector of development for industrial enterprises and the subsequent forecasting of the results of the introduction of innovative development on the results of correlation analysis.
To analyze the relationship between the parameters of the external and internal environment, we have formed the appropriate groups of parameters, taking into account the possibility of obtaining the necessary reliable data for analysis.
The parameters of the external environment included factors that characterize the state of innovation in industry, as industry-wide trends in innovation affect the nature of innovation in an individual enterprise, as well as expert assessments of direct environmental factors of industrial enterprises, which we identified and described in work (Dunska, 2013). The list of environmental parameters is given in table 1.
In the table 2 and 3 respectively show the composition of the parameters of the innovation potential of the enterprise and the composition of the parameters that characterize the results of the enterprise.
5. Finding
The study was tested on the example of leading enterprises of pulp and paper enterprises of Ukraine: PJSC "Malyn Paper Factory-Weidmann", PJSC "Kyiv Cardboard and Paper Mill", PJSC "Rubizhansky Cardboard and Packaging Plant", Banknote Paper Factory of the National Bank of Ukraine. Specific information materials were the data of economic reporting for the period from 2009 to 2020 and the results of expert assessments.
Correlation methods of analysis have a number of limitations, as they provide averaged dependences of the interaction of the parameters of the external and internal environments of enterprises and poorly take into account the specifics of an individual enterprise. However, the calculation of correlations makes it possible to determine the strength and nature of the mutual influence of parameters that characterize the external and internal environment of the enterprise, and, accordingly, to identify the most important of them to choose to ensure the development of individual enterprises.
A key point in the analysis of the calculated correlation coefficients is to determine the importance or non-importance of the relationships between the parameters by setting the threshold of statistical significance pn. Determining the quantitative threshold of statistical significance is not a clearly formalized task and largely depends on experience and intuition. In the general case, the values of the correlation coefficient range from -1 to +1. Negative values of the coefficient indicate the inverse relationship
The level of environmental impact
PROTECTIVE
Innovations: reactive, marketing Strategies: protective, dependent Programs: updating the material and technical base; improvement of resource provision; adaptive management Projects: equipment reconstruction; changes in the supplier and country of origin of raw materials; system improvement; entering the foreign market Subsystems: marketing, logistics, foreign economic activity
Processes: influence, interaction
ABSORBING
Innovations: complementary, reactive, follow-up innovations, technological innovations Strategies: dependent
Programs: development of competitive advantages; adaptive management
Projects: optimization of organizational structure; changes in the pricing policy of the enterprise; creation of strategic management zones Subsystems: marketing, logistics. Processes: influence, interaction
SYNERGETIC
Innovations: breakthroughs, those that create new needs, marketing and management innovations Strategies: actively offensive Programs: development of innovation interaction; development of social capital of the enterprise Projects: participation of the enterprise in the innovation cluster; technology transfer; development of internal social capital
Subsystems: research and development, marketing, staff Processes: transformations, diagnostics, influences
PRECAUTIONARY
Innovations: pseudo-innovations, product innovations-followers, non-technological innovations Strategies: simulation
Programs: involvement of external innovative developments; increasing the level of human resources; optimization of resource provision Projects: acquisition of a license; staff training; use of alternative raw materials
Subsystems: marketing, logistics, financellpouecH: bnjihby, aaôeanehehhfl
BALANCED
Innovations: strategic, marketing, technological, reactive
Strategies: intermediate
Programs: innovative modernization
Projects: introduction of a new organizational form of
innovation management; introduction of new production
technology; involvement of technologies
Subsystems: production
Processes: interactions, transformations
ABSORBING
Innovations: a combination of strategic and reactive innovations, marketing innovations Strategies: slow offensive
Programs: cost management optimization; development of innovative receptivity; sales diversification Projects: introduction of economical production; increasing the level of environmental safety of the enterprise; staff development; optimization of sales geography
Subsystems: personnel, research and development Processes: diagnostics, interactions
SUPPORTING
Innovations: improving, technological, adaptive Strategies: traditional, residual
Programs: technical re-equipment; improving product quality; innovative adaptation
Projects: introduction of advanced mechanisms, elements of equipment; optimization of technological modes of production; introduction of a modified type of product Subsystems: production, finance Processes: influence, provision
WARNING
Innovations: followers, borrowed, reactive Strategies: opportunistic
Programs: assortment policy update; development of the technological subsystem of the enterprise Projects: introduction of a new type of product; improvement of production technology; technical re-equipment of production processes Subsystems: production Processes: diagnostics, support
NICHE
Innovations: breakthrough, strategic, innovations that
create new needs, innovations that "come out of the
laboratory", market
Strategies: creating a new market
Programs: Innovative Breakthrough
Projects: launch of a new unique product; creating a
startup based on an innovative idea; creation of a venture
structure
Subsystems: research and development, production Processes: influence, diagnostics, interaction
low
0,33
medial
0,67
high
Figure 4. Matrix of types of innovation orientation of industrial enterprises in bipolarity: development of innovation potential and influence of the external environment
Source: proposed by the authors
a ) without taking into account the nature of the impact of theexternal environment
Positive influence ^ of the external
high medium
law
Innovation-adaptive vector
/
NICHE
4
SUPPORTING
SUPPORTING
PRECAUTION
PRECAUTION
PROTECTIVE
PROTECTIVE
PROTECTIVE
low
medium high
Negative influence of the
1' ow medium
b) taking into account the nature of the impact of the outdoor environment Figure 5. Vectors of innovative development of enterprises
Source: suggested by the authors
SYNERGETIC
BALANCED
SUPPORTING
PRECAUTION
SYNERGETIC
SYNERGETIC
NICHE
S
ABSORBING
ABSORBING
AB SOR B I NG
high
Innovatively balanced vector
Levels of development of innovative
potential of —>
Innovation-concentrated vector
Innovatively balanced vector
between the parameters. In (Glass and Stanley, 1976), the following interpretation of correlation coefficients is proposed, which will be used by us to analyze the results of calculations: +1,00 - deterministic (direct close) relationship; about +0.50 - weak connection; 0.00 - no connection; about -0.50 - weak connection; -1.00 - deterministic (inverse close) connection.
As a result of processing the collected data, we built matrices of pairwise correlation coefficients
for environmental parameters, innovation potential, performance and environmental parameters and parameters of innovation potential and performance of enterprises.
Based on the logical analysis of the nature and nature of the relationships of the studied parameters, we chose the threshold of statistical significance pn = ± 0.5. The obtained calculations make it possible to conclude that there is a direct relationship between
Baltic Journal of Economic Studies . , -J-- Vol. 7 No. 4, 2021
Table 1
List of parameters of the external environment of industrial enterprises
Designation (environment) Parameters of the external environment of the enterprise Units of measurement
E1 Volumes of financing of innovative activity in branch UAH million
E2 Number of enterprises in the industry that have implemented innovations pcs
E3 The number of introduced innovative types of products at the enterprises of the branch units
E4 The number of implemented advanced technological processes at the enterprises of the branch units
E5 The number of implemented low-waste, resource-saving or non-waste technologies at the enterprises of the branch units
E6 Number of inventors, authors of industrial designs and innovation proposals person
E7 Number of applications for inventions, utility models and industrial designs filed in the field units
E8 The volume of sold innovative products of CPP outside Ukraine UAH thousand
E9 The strength of the impact of changing conditions on the activities of enterprises in the industry points
E10 Intensity of technological changes in the industry points
E11 The degree of consumer influence on the activities of enterprises in the industry points
E12 The degree of influence of state regulation on the activities of enterprises in the industry points
E13 The degree of influence of the resource base of the industry points
E14 The degree of influence of environmental factors on the activities of enterprises in the industry points
Source: compiled by the authors.
Table 2
List of parameters of innovation potential of industrial enterprises
Designation (innovative potential) Parameters of innovation potential of the enterprise Units of measurement
IP1 Costs of acquisition of non-current assets UAH thousand
IP2 The degree of depreciation of fixed assets %
IP3 Capacity utilization level %
IP4 Return on assets %
IP5 The share of electricity costs in the structure of production costs %
IP6 The share of material costs in the structure of production costs %
IP7 The level of provision of the enterprise with material resources. points
IP8 Number of new and modernized technological processes put into operation in the current year units
IP9 The value of the coefficient of maneuverability %
IP10 Coefficient of financial independence %
IP11 Coefficient of financial stability %
IP12 Assessment of the innovative orientation of the enterprise points
IP13 The level of innovative receptivity of staff points
IP14 The growth rate of the average number of employees without measurement
IP15 The share of labor costs in the structure of production costs %
IP16 Productivity UAH / person
IP17 Research and development costs UAH thousand
IP18 Selling expenses UAH thousand
IP19 The level of use of information technology points
IP20 Efficiency of communication channels points
IP21 The share of exports in total production %
IP22 The share of exports to foreign countries in total production %
Source: compiled by the authors
the degree of influence of the resource base of enterprises in the industry (E13) and the assessment of the impact of changes in environmental conditions on the activities of enterprises (E9), the degree of influence of state regulation (E12). the degree of influence of environmental factors (E14) and the share of enterprises in the industry that have implemented innovations (E2).
Feedback is present between the impact of government regulation (E12) and the number of new products developed in the industry (E3).
When intensifying innovative development, it is important to assess the nature and direction of the impact of the external environment on the innovative potential of the enterprise. The analysis of the obtained
calculations shows that the most significant factor of the external environment is the assessment of the degree of consumer influence on the activities of enterprises in the industry (E11). The greatest closeness of the relationship can be traced between this indicator and the following parameters of innovation potential: the number of new and modernized technological processes put into operation in the current year (IPs): the growth of this indicator indicates the improvement of the innovative level of production and products in accordance with the growing demands of consumers;
- the level of innovative receptivity of staff (IP13): the adaptation of technological processes to the new needs of consumers requires an appropriate level of creativity from employees of enterprises;
- costs of research and development (IP17): increasing market power of consumers requires companies to find new, non-standard solutions to meet the needs of consumers, and, consequently, leads to increased costs of research and development;
- sales costs (IP^): increasing the number of consumers requires higher costs for their supply of products, increasing consumer demand requires the establishment of efficient operation of sales channels.
It should be noted that the correlation analysis showed a close relationship between the amount of funding for innovation in the industry (E1) and the level of innovation susceptibility of staff in the industry (IP13): the correlation coefficient is 0.82 (according to our research from 2000 to 2005 years, the value of this ratio was 0.55). It is obvious that the tendencies to increase the volume of funding for innovation in the industry will lead to an increase in the innovative receptivity of staff at each individual enterprise. On the other hand, awareness of the role of innovative transformations in enterprises contributes to increasing funding for innovation, quantitative and qualitative growth of innovation results, increasing the number of employees in the innovation sector and, consequently, increasing the innovation sensitivity of staff in general.
The analysis of the correlations between the indicators of innovation potential and the parameters that characterize the results of the enterprise, provided an opportunity to identify the most significant factors of innovation potential on which the effectiveness of the enterprise depends. Namely, there is a close connection between:
- the level of capacity utilization (IP3) and production and sales volumes (R1, R2);
- the number of innovative technological processes put into operation (IPs) and the company's profit (R4);
- costs of research and development (IP17) and sales revenue (R3), costs per 1 UAH of sold products (R9), and the dynamics of export growth (R3).
There are also correlations in the structure of innovation potential parameters. In particular, the calculations showed the presence of feedback between the level of security of the enterprise with material resources (IP7) and the number of new and modernized technological processes (IPs); direct links with the value of the correlation coefficient greater than 0.95 are present between the value of the share of material costs in the cost structure (IPs) and the level of material security of the enterprise, between the value of the share of electricity costs in the cost structure (IP5) and the number new and modernized technological processes (IPs); the growth rate of the number of employees (IP14) and labor productivity (IP16); the level of innovative susceptibility of personnel (IP13) and the share of exports to industrialized countries in total production (IP22).
These results of the analysis of the relationship between the parameters of innovation potential of enterprises, environmental parameters and performance of enterprises provide an opportunity to build a linear multiple regression equation for each vector of development, which allows to analyze the relationship between several variables and assess their impact on the dependent variable. The equation for the innovation-adaptive vector should be based on the relationship between corporate profits (R4), the number of implemented innovation processes (IPs)
Table 3
List of parameters of results of industrial enterprises
Designation (rezult) Parameters of efficiency of enterprise activity Units of measurement
Ri Production volume UAH thousand
R2 Sales volume UAH thousand
R3 Sales revenue UAH thousand
R4 Net profit (loss) UAH thousand
Rs Product profitability %
R6 Return on assets without measurement
R7 Return on equity without measurement
Rs Total liquidity ratio without measurement
R9 Costs per 1 UAH. sold products pennies
R10 Dynamics of export growth %
Source: compiled by the authors
Table 4
Design of vectors of development of pulp and paper enterprises
Selection criterion Development vector Terms of selection Model for forecasting Explanation
Max (Enterprise revenue) Innovatively balanced Rising costs for innovation in the industry Increasing the level of innovation receptivity Y13 = A01 + A11 * * Xl + A12 * X2 Y13 - revenue of enterprises from sales of products (R3), Xi - costs of innovation in the industry (Ei) X2 - the level of innovative susceptibility of enterprise personnel (IP13)
Innovation-concentrated The growth of enterprise costs for innovation Increasing the level of innovation receptivity Yik = A02 + A21 * * X3 + A22 * X2 Yik - revenue of enterprises from sales of products (R3), X3 - costs of enterprises for innovation (IP17) X2 - the level of innovative susceptibility of enterprise personnel (IP13)
Innovative-adaptive Rising costs for innovation in the industry Growing consumer influence Yia = A03 + A31 * * Xi - A2 * X4 Yia - revenue of enterprises from sales of products (R3), X1 - costs of innovation in the industry (E1) X4 - level of consumer influence (E11)
Source: developed by the authors
Table 4
Forecasting the development of pulp and paper enterprises
Enterprise Development vector Model for forecasting Enterprise revenue forecast, thousand UAH
2021 2022 2023
Yik = 110335,1813 + 49,4127*X3 + 8410,9133*X2,
PJSC "Malyn Paper Factory-Weidmann" Innovation-concentrated where Yik - revenue of enterprises from sales of products (R3), X - costs of enterprises for innovation (IP17), X - the level of innovative susceptibility of enterprise personnel (IP13) 490 436,4 626 740,6 822 148,8
Y13 = -140689,5637 + 4029,7835X + 207600,1961*X2,
PJSC "Rubizhansky Cardboard and Innovatively balanced where Y13 - revenue of enterprises from sales of products (R3), X1 - costs of innovation in the industry (E1), 2 706 275,167 3 265 620 4 032 056
Packaging Plant" X - the level of innovative susceptibility of enterprise personnel (IP13)
Yia = 31821625,3461 + 1286,2602*X1 -
PJSC "Kyiv Cardboard and Paper Mill" Innovative-adaptive 3354871,9406*X4, where Yia - revenue of enterprises from sales of products (R3), X1 - costs of innovation in the industry (E1), X4 - level of consumer influence (E11) 5 035 822,81 5 866 148 7 097 294
Yik = -90201,4911 + 438,7126*X + 24003,5649X,
Ukrainian Paper LLC Innovation-concentrated where Y13 - revenue of enterprises from sales of products (R3), X1 - costs of innovation in the industry (E1), X2 - the level of innovative susceptibility of enterprise personnel (IP13) 142 022,47 157 764,8 175 319,2
Source: calculated by the authors
and the strength of consumer influence (E11); the equation for the innovation-balanced vector should take into account the relationship between the revenue of enterprises from sales (R3), the cost of innovation in the industry (Ei) and the level of innovation susceptibility of enterprise personnel (IP13); the innovation-focused vector takes into account the relationship between the revenue of enterprises from sales (R3), the costs of enterprises for innovation (IP17) and the level of innovation susceptibility of enterprise personnel (IP13).
In the table 5 shows the calculated regression equations for alternative development vectors and
forecast indicators of profit and sales revenue at the studied enterprises.
In the case of existing alternative vectors of enterprise development, the one that provides the opportunity to obtain higher economic results is chosen.
6. Conclusions
Activation of actions for innovative development of industrial enterprises is preceded by the lack of a proper trajectory, which is determined by the vector. Accordingly, the article forms a scientific and methodological approach to the definition of
such vectors. Development depends on the type of innovation orientation of the enterprise, due to the available innovation potential and the impact of the external environment. Therefore, the key types of targeted innovation orientation of enterprises should be considered: supportive, preventive, synergistic, protective, balanced, absorbing, niche. Types of orientation are the basis of the developed matrix, which has bipolarities: the development of innovation potential and the impact of the external environment. Its use and application of correlation analysis of indicators of external (external environment of the enterprise) and internal (innovative potential)
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