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18Journal of Siberian Federal University. Humanities & Social Sciences 9 (2014 7) 1457-1470
УДК 316.4:316.7
Scenario of the Future of the Sakha (Yakutia) Republic. Foresight Research
Evgeniya I. Mikhailovaa, Alla V. Laptevab and Valery S. Efimovb*
a North-Eastern Federal University in Yakutsk 58 Belinskogo Str., Yakutsk, 677027, Russia b Siberian Federal University 79 Svobodny, Krasnoyarsk, 660041, Russia
Received 03.06.2014, received in revised form 21.07.2014, accepted 28.08.2014
The results of Foresight research, and namely presenting scenarios of the future of the Sakha (Yakutia) Republic, its indigenous peoples, are introduced. Both envisaging further development and realistic images of the republic's future, suggested by the experts, are discussed. A field of scenarios of the future of the Sakha (Yakutia) Republic till 2050 is presented, scenario conditions and factors being viewed. A baseline scenario of the formation of multi-structure economies and society, blending traditional, developed industrial and post-industrial (cognitive) structures, is described. Within the frame of a baseline scenario reproduction of the republic's indigenous peoples' identity, culture and languages will be provided by special cultural policy, cultural and educational practices. Scenarios which are alternative to a baseline one are elaborated. These are "corporate colonization", "demographic and cultural dissipation", "temptation of a consumption society", "cultural break-through ". The opportunities of "discovering the North " (analogous to the "discovery of the east" in the XX century) for the whole mankind are discussed. The conditions for this might be the following ones: accumulation of the indigenous peoples' cultural heritage on the basis of use of modern informational technologies; consolidation of northern peoples and shifting their culture from the level of local ethnic cultures to the level of "northern civilization" of a special type. The North-Eastern Federal University should play its special role of a strategic subject, organizing the development and implementation of new cultural, educational, medical practices, necessary cultural policy.
Keywords: research of the future, foresight, the Sakha (Yakutia) Republic, scenarios of the future, preservation of the indigenous peoples' identity, languages and cultures.
Introduction
The article presents the results of Foresight research of the future of the Sakha (Yakutia) Republic, a joint project of the specialists of North-Eastern and Siberian federal universities1. It discusses a field of scenarios, or variants of the republic's future till 2050.
Foresight was realized in 2010-2013. It comprised a complex of economical, demographic, socio-anthropological research, a large-scale sociological survey of Sakha representatives (the Yakuts) and the republic's indigenous minorities, and a Delphi survey of the experts on the variants of the republic's and
© Siberian Federal University. All rights reserved
* Corresponding author E-mail address: efimov.val@gmail.com
its peoples' future. The project's conception is introduced in Efimov and Lapteva's article (2012). Some results of a sociological survey and the forecast for the reproduction of the indigenous peoples' (those being the Yakuts and the indigenous minorities of the North) languages and culture are presented in Efimov and Lapteva's publications (2014a; 2014b). Some results of a Delphi survey of the experts are presented in the articles by Borisova et al. (2013a; 2013b).
The present article dwells upon a field of scenarios of the future and a baseline scenario (Re. to: UNIDO Technology Foresight Manual (2005a; 2005b) about the methods of elaborating scenarios within a Foresight frame). Unlike classical elaboration of a scenario its Foresight elaboration regards a baseline scenario to be a scenario of "the desired future" but not of a "middle" variant of a scenario object (Pereslegin 2009, 64-80). At that other (alternative) scenarios are viewed as risks of a baseline scenario.
Scenarios of the Sakha (Yakutia) Republic's future were elaborated the following way. The specialists carried out a survey of analytical reports on the most significant tendencies in economical development, demographic and socio-cultural processes on a global scale (40 for the Next 40; Mapping the Global Future 2004; Foresight 2020 Economic, industry and corporate trends 2006; Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World 2008; World Development Report 2009; World Development Report 2010; The World in 2050: The Accelerating Shift of Global Economic Power: Challenges and Opportunities 2011; Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds 2012; Manyika J. et al. 2013; etc.), singled out "mega-trends" which set an external context and boundaries of possible future of the regions of Russia's north-east. The forecasts and programme documents of the
Russian Federation, concerning the future of the country's north-eastern regions were also studied (The forecast for a long-term socio-economical development of the Russian Federation up to 2030; The state programme of the development of the Far East and Baikal region up to 2025, 2013; etc.); scientific literature about ethno-social processes and prospects of cultural policy were analyzed (Popkov 2012; Lashov 2013; etc.).
The variants of the republic's development with reference to megatrends and internal processes were discussed with the experts in the course of interviews and seminars. The experts suggested hypothetic scenario variants of the future both taken in general and in certain spheres (economy, demography, the indigenous peoples' culture and languages), the variants being included into the list of a Delphi-survey. Then they carried out a survey, getting 1800 experts (scientists, representatives of government authorities, educational, cultural and medical establishments, public organizations, local communities) involved. The experts assessed probability (or realness), advisability (or prospectivity) of various variants of the future, their possible influence on the fortunes of the republic's indigenous minorities. The analysis of the survey data made it possible to distinguish the most important scenarios, estimated as medium- and highly probabilistic and potentially significant regarding the indigenous minorities' future.
The images of the future were elaborated and a field of possible scenarios of the Sakha (Yakutia) Republic's future was formed on the basis of these results.
Images of the future
Analysis of processes and various subject's intentions (desires, plans) made it possible to outline four variants of the Sakha (Yakutia)
Republic's long-term future. Each image of the future is presented in its metaphoric nomination, key statements (what will be happening) and "musts" (what must be done to achieve such a future). As the most fundamental changes in the indigenous peoples' life are closely connected with the change of their life and activity, it is a certain socio-economical way of life (which should be either preserved or re-cultivated) that lies in the basis of each image of the future.
Yakutia is a virgin land
The indigenous peoples' harmonious, self-valued life based on traditional economy and use of modern technical means (means of transport, communication, manufacture and private life). The Yakuts and indigenous minorities of the North must re-establish traditional economy and mode of life on the whole; minimize other cultures' influence. The number of rural population must grow. Industrial, service, cognitive sectors must develop like sectors of employment of the representatives of other, non-indigenous peoples. Industry development must be localized territorially by means of norms and bans, limiting the activity of extracting companies and their influence on surrounding territories; labour migration to the areas of the indigenous peoples' residence should be limited. Industry development is allowed only to the extent which is necessary as a source of revenue to the republic's budget. A flow of rent payments (due to taxation, structure of the republic's budget, etc.) from industrial, service, and cognitive sectors should be secured to finance the indigenous peoples' social support.
Industrial Yakutia: development
of the indigenous peoples
on the path of an industrial way of life
The Yakuts and indigenous peoples of the North must become familiar with an industrial
way of life (in which the main mass of surplus value is created), and namely to work at factories and plants, live in cities and urban settlements. The representatives of the indigenous peoples must be trained to become engineers, qualified workers, and specialists for an industrial sector. The companies must be given quotas of working places for the representatives of the indigenous peoples at all levels: from workers to executive staff and top-managers. Active investment policy (involvement of Russian and foreign investors for infrastructure and industry development; development of the system of legal norms, ensuring industrial development in compliance with ecological demands and goals to preserve the indigenous peoples' residential territories and economy) is necessary.
Post-industrial Yakutia
in its service way of life: development
of the indigenous peoples
on the path of a service way of life
The Yakuts and indigenous peoples of the North must become familiar with life and activity in service way of life, and namely to concentrate in Yakutsk, a capital city, and large cities, be engaged in service sphere, education and public health service, mass media, state and municipal administration. It is necessary to expand service sector and improve the quality on account of use of modern technologies, develop international cultural and extreme tourism, economical and cultural cooperation with Asian peoples and circumpolar territories. Involvement of the representatives of the indigenous peoples in industrial structures should be avoided as it is destructive for their way of life, social structures, and mentality. The republic's industry should develop on the basis of use of non-indigenous peoples' labour resources.
Post-industrial Yakutia in its cognitive way of life (economy of knowledge): development of the indigenous peoples on the path of a cognitive way of life
The Yakuts and indigenous peoples of the North must adjust their life and activity to a cognitive mode of life, and namely to concentrate in Yakutsk, a northern megalopolis, be engaged in education and science, innovation business, sector of finance, administration, creative industries, etc. A cluster of innovative-and-technological and cultural types of activity must be developed by the North-Eastern Federal University. The university must integrate into international research networks, initiate projects significant at the global level for developing arctic territories, preservation and development of the indigenous peoples of the North. The republic must become one of political, economical and cultural leaders of circumpolar civilization, an active international player in the sphere of legal control of economical development of the Arctic.
Expert estimation of the variants of the Sakha (Yakutia) Republic's future
A Delphi-survey made it possible to assess prospectivity and realness of the suggested images of the future. The variants "Post-industrial Yakutia in its cognitive way of life" and "Yakutia is a virgin land" were defined by the experts as the most promising ones in the long-term future. At that "Yakutia is a virgin land" variant is regarded as the least realistic of all suggested. As for "Post-industrial Yakutia in its cognitive way of life" variant, it was viewed as rather realistic. "Industrial Yakutia" is considered as having prospects and realistic to a moderate extent. "Post-industrial Yakutia in its service way of life" is regarded as realistic but least promising of all taken into consideration. Thus, "Post-industrial Yakutia in its cognitive way of life" is considered
to be a variant of the future till 2050, combining prospectivity and realness.
Different age groups of experts differently assess the variants of the future. Young experts (at the age up to 29) evidently prefer "Postindustrial Yakutia in its cognitive way of life" future. Experts at the age between 30-49 consider "Industrial Yakutia" and "Yakutia is a virgin land" variants to be rather prospective. From the point of view of the experts over 50, "Yakutia is a virgin land" is viewed as the most promising variant. However, it is assessed as low-realistic. Thus, there are two groups in Yakut society that direct their attention towards different variants of the future: some of them see the perspective in introducing Yakutia to post-industrial, cognitive society; others - in restoration and preservation of traditional manufacture and way of life.
The conclusion that might be drawn is that Yakutia's future will be determined by two key vectors of development. These are "Industrial Yakutia" and "Post-industrial Yakutia in its cognitive way of life". However, there are social groups in Yakutia that consider the idea of "a virgin land" to be important. The strategy of the Sakha (Yakutia) Republic's development must take its citizens' system of values into consideration and combine industrial and post-industrial (cognitive) development with the search for various forms of "being virgin" for their local realization.
3. A scenario field of the Sakha (Yakutia) Republic's future
Variability of the future of Yakutia and people, residing here, is a result of superimposition of external factors and external subjects' actions, on the one hand, and internal processes and internal subjects' activity, on the other hand. Global factors, or key constants, which are determined by objectively specified global trends, can be singled out. Corresponding changes will take place with greater probability
SCENARIO FIELD AND MAIN FACTORS
Variable factors as conditions for development
World economy growth Diversification and growth of Russian | economy | New federalism, strengthening the regions Raising the subjectness of the Sakha Republic
Demand for natural resources
Urbanization (growth of cities and population number)
Baseline scenario
'Yakutia is forever'
Scenario "TEMPTATION OF A CONSUMPTION SOCIETY"
Informatization of life and activity
World economy stagnation
Russian economy stagnation
Unitary or corporate state
Scenario
"CULTURAL
BREAK-
THROUGH"
/
Scenario
"DEMOGRAPHIC AND
CULTURAL
DISSIPATION"
Loss of the Sakha Republic's subjectness
Variable factors as conditions for degradation
Fig. 1. A field ofscenarios ofthe Sakha (Yakutia) Republic's future: key factors, basic and alternative scenarios
at practically any combinations of external and internal factors, which are regarded as specified scenario conOitions.
There is also a variable part of scenario conditions, which is determined by peculiar features of the world economy development, economical and political situation in Russia, activity and inactivity of cultural and political elite of the Sakha (Yakutia) Republic. These factors can acquire different, even opposite meanings. They can create conditions for Yakutia's development or conditions under which the development processes will be blocked and degradation processes will be possible.
Global factors as key constants
• Demand for natural resources in the world markets.
The constant is availability of the demand. At that different dynamics is possible. These are increase or decrease. However, drastic collapsing
demand for oil, gas, coal, metals, wood, fertilizers, etc. is almost impossible in prospect of the nearest decades. Demand for natural resources from the Asian-Pacific region countries will be a powerful driver for Yakutia's socio-economical development.
• Urbanization, growth of cities and number of townspeople. There will be an intensive growth of cities in the countries of Asia and Africa with predominantly rural population. At that styles of life, consumption formats, migration dynamics will change. This will become a powerful driver for global changes. The growth of number of townspeople will also be in progress. Almost 70% of the representatives of the indigenous peoples, born in 2021-2030, will be townspeople (Efimov, Lapteva, 2014a).
• Informatization of life and activity. Within the period till 2050 all the regions of the world will be fully provided with cellular communications and Internet. Billions of people
will join a global informational flow. This will be accompanied by unification and standardization of cultural codes and communicating languages. Global informational field will cause threats and challenges for the existence of culture and languages of the indigenous peoples of the North. Even at present in the Sakha (Yakutia) Republic there are 132 sim-cards for 100 persons; 99,8% of the residents watch TV programmes; 34% of flats and houses have Internet providers (Re. to: Sviaz' v Rossii - 2010). Within the period till 2050 involvement into informational flows will be almost complete.
Variable factors as conditions for development or degradation.
World economy dynamics (limiting variants):
• either continuation of world economy growth and globalization, and namely expansion of globally distributed production systems, markets of commodity and services, capitals and labour; involvement of new territories in worldwide production and consumption processes;
• or world economy stagnation; economical and political regionalization and fragmentation; protection of the countries' capital and labour markets; "freeze" on processes of new territories' development.
This dynamics will depend on many factors, including tempos and success of development of production of the sixth technological structure; degree of successfulness of efforts on "reorganization" of the world financial system, lowering of international tension.
The size and quality of the Russian economy growth (limiting variants):
• either deep structural and technological modernization, formation of diversified structure of economy (including
extracting sectors, deep processing, high-technology productions, centres of economy of knowledge); active creation of productions of the 5-6th technological structures; settlement of infrastructural and institutional deficits; high growth rates;
• or "sticking" of Russian economy in the situation of "a raw materials donor" for other countries; low growth rates (or sequence of rates of growth and decline) at freeze on the sectoral structure, transformation of infrastructural, institutional and budgetary deficits into chronic ones.
Development / closing up of federalism in Russia (limiting variants):
• either development of federalism, expansion of the sphere of powers of federation subjects; conversion to a new model of inter-budgetary relations and redistribution of financial resources in favour of regions and municipalities; higher transparency and accountability of power at all levels, lowering of corruptive costs; formation of civil society institutes, implementation of policy of subsidiarity and citizens' participation in development processes;
• or transition from a federal state to actually a unitary one, that is reduction of sphere of federal subjects' powers, strengthening of powers of federal authorities and intermediate structures (federal districts, for example); redistribution of profits in favour of a federal centre;
• or actual transition to a corporate state, transfer of a wide range of powers and resources, concerning the development of Russian regions, corporate establishments, and namely natural monopolies, federal state corporations,
Russian and international consortiums, etc.; reduction of powers and resources of both regional and federal authorities. At the level of statements Russia will be called a federal state, but the main control levers and resources will be under the corporate institutes' control.
3. "YAKUTIA IS FOREVER" baseline scenario
A baseline scenario is a form of integration of acceptable images of the future and the most probable and desirable particular scenarios; their "desirability" means they reflect interests and designated aims of various economical, social and cultural groups in the republic. Elaboration of a baseline scenario presupposes the processes, which are important for realization of business and social activity of various population groups with different values and vital preferences.
A limiting frame for a baseline scenario is a frame of a multi-structure society, considering such issues as preservation of the indigenous peoples' traditional forms of life and activity, development of a full-fledged industrial sector, formation of a significant sector of post-industrial economy, ensuring integration into the world processes of development, and a new quality of life and employment to be important.
A baseline scenario "fits" in a global (embracing many countries and regions, including Yakutia) process of "cognitivization" of systems of work and life organization, social institutes and communicative interactions, political institutes and management systems. This process opens a "cognitive perspective" (Efimov, Lapteva, 2013) of human civilization development: formation of post-industrial structure with a focus on its cognitive components and transition to "a clever society" with its characteristic "economy of welfare" paradigm ("economy for the ethnos
but not the ethnos for economy"). A cognitive perspective frame presupposes a certain way of the development of industrial types of activity, as well as ecological and cultural ones, providing for the preservation of "virgin" natural and ethno-cultural territories.
Long-term target goals
of a basic scenario
In medium-term perspective (till 2030) a guiding line is considered to be an "industrial Yakutia" image of the future. It implies a faster development of an industrial sector of economy, transport and energy infrastructure, expansion of extracting industry sector. A service sector of economy must develop. Education and medical modernization is necessary. At the same time the problems of preservation, ecological protection and provision of the necessary facilities on the indigenous peoples' residential territories within the frames of a traditional way of life and traditional types of management.
The image of the future in long-term perspective (till 2050) is "multi-structure Yakytia". It comprises 1) territories of the indigenous peoples' residence with necessary facilities within the frames of a traditional way of life and management; 2) a sector of industrial economy, including production, deep processing of natural resources and enterprises of a service type for resource-producing production; 3) a developed sector of post-industrial economy. On the whole reality of the republic's indigenous peoples must become multi-structure, including a traditional way of life and elements of industrial and post-industrial (cognitive) ways of life, which should be adopted.
Target goals of a baseline scenario for long-term perspective (till 2050) are the following ones:
• the Yakuts and indigenous peoples of the North must adjust the life and activity
to a cognitive mode of life, and namely to concentrate in Yakutsk, a northern megalopolis, be engaged in education and science, innovation business, sector of finance, administration, creative industries, etc.;
• a cluster of innovative-and-technological and cultural types of activity must be developed by the North-Eastern Federal University within the frames of a strategic partnership with large companies, bodies of power and foreign partners. The university must integrate into international research networks, initiate projects significant at the global level for developing arctic territories, preservation and development of the indigenous peoples of the North;
• the Sakha (Yakutia) Republic mustbecome one of political, economical and cultural leaders of circumpolar civilization, an active international player in the sphere of legal control of economical development of the Arctic;
• certain residential territories of the indigenous peoples of the North must be kept in a "virgin" state - industrial economic activities should be limited there; this will make it possible for the groups, focusing on "Yakutia is a virgin land" image of the future, to realize their life values and ideals; it will be an extra "supporting point" for preservation of the indigenous peoples' culture and languages.
Components of a baseline scenario, referring to different spheres (development of economy and infrastructures, demographic and migration processes, population's health, reproduction of the indigenous peoples' identity, culture and languages), are shown schematically (Fig. 2).
Reproduction of the indigenous peoples ' identity, culture and languages within the frames of a basic scenario
A baseline scenario implies the possibility to stop the processes of "blurring" the indigenous peoples' identity, culture and languages due to a special cultural policy, cultural and educational practices (decline in the number of people who know the indigenous peoples' native languages, reduction of the interest to a native language and national culture among the youth, identity transformation).
At the same time positive tendencies contributing to culture preservation and development should be supported. These are regeneration of culture in its spiritual, psychological and "material" manifestations, strengthening of national identity and self-consciousness, establishment of new institutes and instruments of cultural policy, use of modern informational environments and technologies for reproduction of identity, cultures and languages. It's important to take into account that, according to the experts' assessment, there is a short period (till 2020) for the possibilities to develop new cultural and educational practices. If positive tendencies are not taken up within this period, an existing "wave" of regeneration of national culture will "abate" in medium- and especially long-term perspective.
Important elements of a baseline scenario: • initiation of interuniversity research cooperation on the basis of the NorthEastern Federal University which will make it possible to determine a "cultural and value" nucleus of the Yakut people, form a concept of a new anthropotype of "the Man of the North"; the results must become the basis for the development of cultural policy, new cultural and
ECONOMY
2020
Private-state partnership. Investment policy "Rules of the game" for cooperation
Policy ot diversification ot the "pool" of partners (Russian and foreign)
fra8Pt?onaí economy
ECONOMIC POLICY
Industrial policy-creation of diversified
2030
industry
Cluster policy
Support of sectors the economy of
of
knowledge
• Development of extracting productions) - point wise (camps, imported working force)
• Attraction of investments
• Transport and energy infrastructure formation
• Expansion of a servicies sector for population
• Modernization of a budgetary sector (public health, education)
• Rise in traditional economy's profitability
NEW POSITIONING AND GROWTH ON NEW BASES:
• Development of processing and manufacturing productions
• Manufacture of products, goods from unique local raw materials
• "Production of beauty items" (lapidary, jewelry industries)
» Development of cultural and intellectual services_
2050
Processes as
components
Components of policy
• Development of extracting productions - scale development
• Formation of service sector business for support of "raw materials projects"
• Attracting the indigenous population to new working places ^
• Development of high-technology productions with high extra costs
• Formation of sectors of the economy of knowledge H
development, engineering services fc^r geological prospecting, extraction, construction in conditions <
the North, etc.
DEMOGRAPHIC POLICY
DEMOGRAPHY, MIGRATIONS
improvement of child mortality
Support ot tamilies
with children. Payment of maternal labour
Practices ot support of the adults' ht<h
• The indigenous peoples' demographic welfare - long life-time, low mortality at the working age
Transition to an urban pattern of family - families having few / no children, decline of birth Preservation of the indigenous population number due to a special demographic policy
• Demographic growth of the indigenous peoples due to high birthrate
I
• Keeping the educated Yakut youth - attractive working places, accommodation, developed social and cultural infrastructure
• Attraction of labour migrants and providing them with necessary facilities
THE
INDIGENOUS PEOPLES' CULTURE AND LANGUAGES
nefu is an r&d centre for new technical, educational and cultural practices
CULTL OLICY
tstabiisnment and support ot new institutes -educational, media, social ones
Maintenance ot multicultural environment
pJúitúi
uiture ot tne peoples ot tne ixiortn in cyberspace
hormation or regional and international social alliances
^ ;
! :
I :
; :
I :
: ;
Introduction to the system ot
international legal norms. Development of tne system of these norms
i ; ; I
^ I
: i
• Integre ding the
indigene culture,
the Engl
Fig. 2. Components of a baseline scenario of the Sakha (Yakutia) Republic's development
educational practices, establishment of new institutes ensuring reproduction of identity, culture and languages of the indigenous peoples of Yakutia;
• establishment of new institutes and creation of new instruments of cultural policy (educational, cultural, media, social), focused on the reproduction of identity, culture and languages of the indigenous peoples of Yakutia;
• active use of modern information-and-communication technologies, virtual settings; growth of accessibility and popularity of the indigenous peoples' cultural heritage and languages on the Internet;
• formation and preservation of virgin ethno-cultural territories, the places of settlement of the indigenous peoples of the North, where industrial production activity should be limited, high living standards should be provided, conditions to support the most authentic forms of traditional economic activities and way of life in general should be created;
• formation of multicultural identity when the Yakuts and the representatives of the indigenous minorities of the North know three languages (native, Russian, foreign) and have a complicated identity (ethnic, civil (Russian), civilizational (common to mankind);
• formation of a sustainable multicultural environment in which the indigenous peoples' culture and languages are preserved and occupy their special place; the Russian language and culture as a communicating language of the Russian peoples and culture of professionals; the English language as a language of intercultural communication.
4. Alternative scenarios
Alternative scenarios are variants of the future which can be realized partially or fully under certain external and internal factors. Alternative scenarios are less probable, but consequences of their realization can be very significant. These scenarios are realized in the situation when a baseline scenario is "blocked". Alternative scenarios are regarded as risks in respect of a baseline scenario. In the course of expert discussions the four alternative scenarios, described below, are distinguished.
"Corporate colonization"
alternative scenario
Within the frames of this scenario large corporations, having the largest investment resources and a high potential of lobbying the decisions, which are necessary for them, in state and international structures, are key economical and political subjects in the world and in Russia. These corporations become new subjects of colonial policy and can extract natural resources on the northern territories without taking the indigenous peoples' interests into consideration. In Russia the variant of corporate colonization can be strengthened by merging of state and corporate structures, limitation of the regions' rights and possibilities, pursuing independent socio-economical and cultural policy.
Actions of corporate structures - new colonizers - are focused on a faster development (extraction, transportation, sales) of natural resources. At that minimization of tax payments to the republic's budget and saving of expenses on the development of infrastructures are achieved. "Withdrawal of natural rent" results in the decrease in the resources volume, which the republic has for pursuing effective demographic and cultural policy; development of education and medical care; solution of the tasks of the protection of the indigenous peoples.
Realization of such a scenario can lead to worsening of ecological problems, complication of interethnic relations, resulting from labour migrants' attraction without their necessary adaptation and forming-up migration policy; rapid demographic and socio-cultural degradation of the indigenous peoples.
"Demographic and cultural dissipation"
alternative scenario
In this scenario existing negative tendencies, which will lead to the Yakut ethnos' decline in long-term perspective, gradually become stronger. Without developing strong demographic and cultural policy, realized through new cultural, educational practices, transformation of health system and social support, the following will take place in medium-and long-term perspective:
• decline in the indigenous peoples' number, resulting from 1) a transition to a model of an urban family with a few children, 2) high mortality rate of people at the working age, caused by external (social) reasons, 3) growing migration flow of young people to the regions and countries with higher standards of life;
• "dissipation" of languages - from generation to generation fewer and fewer representatives of the indigenous peoples will know native languages, use them as means of communication;
• "dissipation" of national culture - loss of the young people's interest to the national culture, substitution of national culture by mass unified culture;
• deformation of identity - entering a foreign environment from childhood will lead to "failures" in the formation of ethno-cultural identity; it will be displaced by other identifications - civil, professional, sub-cultural ones.
"Temptation of a consumption society" alternative scenario
This scenario implies that Yakutia successfully integrates into global economy in the roles of natural resources and processed production supplier; GDP and the republic's budgetary income grow, transport and social infrastructure develop; standards and quality of life, the population's income grow.
Free access to global information space via telecommunication, high mobility (visits to other regions and countries in order to tour them, get education, job, etc.) result in assimilation of other cultural values, pictures of the world, behaviour patterns by the Yakuts and the indigenous minorities of the North.
This scenario is quite comfortable and promising for a consuming person but it leads to the loss of identity, native languages and cultures as well as to the assimilation of the representatives of the indigenous peoples into a global "consuming society". Within the period till 2030 the indigenous people's cultures are placed to the periphery of social and cultural life. They will not be lost only in rural territories, their mediums being people of older generations. Within the period after 2030 the indigenous peoples' culture and languages will be displaced from their everyday life: only small majority of the representatives of the indigenous peoples will keep their identity, speak and think their native language, turn to their cultural traditions. Cultures of the republic's indigenous peoples as archaisms are preserved only in museums, libraries and scientific establishments
"Cultural break-through " alternative scenario
A distinctive feature of this scenario is a faster formation of the system of practices and institutes (educational, cultural, political), necessary for the reproduction of identity, languages and cultures
of the Sakha people and the indigenous minorities of the North in the republic. The work, necessary for the formation of cultural and value nucleus of the indigenous peoples who are trying to understand its meaning and forms of existence in modern world, will be completed in a short period of time (one-two decades). Forms and ways of a full-fledged transfer of culture and languages in the riches of their content and their realization in people's life from generation to generation will be worked out.
The forms and ways of "presenting" the culture of the indigenous peoples of Yakutia to the world and other peoples will be found. "Discovery of the North" for the whole mankind will take place. It is analogous to "discovery of the East" in the XX century and the time when the elements of the cultures of peoples of southern and eastern Asia (India, Japan and China in the first place) became popular worldwide (they spread to both the level of pop-culture with its simplified representations of "the east" and the level of real translation of deep civilizational codes).
The probable conditions of realization of this scenario are:
• the North-Eastern Federal University's activity aimed at the activization of the republic's artistic elite, formation and "promotion" of the northern peoples' culture;
• formation of the northern peoples' international cooperation in order to protect their interests and consolidate their efforts, aimed at accumulation and "crystallization" of cultural heritage - at transfer of the northern peoples' culture from the level of local ethnic cultures to the level of a special type of northern civilization, circumpolar civilization;
• faster realization of a "cognitive" phase transfer by leading countries - to post-industrial / cognitive phase of the development; growth of demand for specific resources for the activities, which are characteristic to a cognitive phase, the resources being sign-symbolic systems, ontologies and types of world-views, lifestyles and ways of being a human, which are kept by various ethnic cultures.
1 The authors express gratitude to the sociologists of the North-Eastern Federal University under the direction of U.S. Bori-sova, who carried out a field part of the research within the frame of the Delfi-survey of the experts.
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Сценарии будущего Республики Саха (Якутия). Форсайт-исследование
Е.И. Михайлова3, А.В. Лаптева6, В.С. Ефимов6
аСеверо-Восточный федеральный университет Россия, 677027, Якутск, ул. Белинского, 58 бСибирский федеральный университет Россия, 660041, Красноярск, пр. Свободный, 79
Представлены результаты форсайт-исследования - сценирования будущего Республики Саха (Якутия), ее коренных народов. Обсуждаются выделенные экспертами как перспективные и реалистичные образы будущего республики. Представлено поле сценариев будущего Республики Саха (Якутия) в горизонте времени до 2050 г., обсуждаются сценарные условия и факторы. Описан базовый сценарий формирования многоукладных экономики и общества, сочетающих традиционный уклад, развитый индустриальный и постиндустриальный (когнитивный). В рамках базового сценария воспроизводство идентичности, культуры и языков коренных народов республики будет обеспечиваться специальной культурной политикой, культурными и образовательными практиками. Обозначены сценарии, альтернативные базовому: «корпоративная колонизация», «демографическая и культурная диссипация», «соблазн общества потребления», «культурный прорыв». Обсуждаются возможности «открытия Севера» для всего человечества, аналогично тому как в ХХ столетии происходило «открытие Востока». Условиями этого могут стать аккумуляция культурного наследия северных народов на основе использования современных информационных технологий; консолидация северных народов и перевод их культуры с уровня локальных этнических культур на уровень особого рода «северной цивилизации». Особой должна стать роль Северо-Восточного федерального университета как стратегического субъекта, организующего разработку и реализацию новых культурных, образовательных, здравоохранительных практик, необходимой культурной политики.
Ключевые слова: исследование будущего, форсайт, Республика Саха (Якутия), сценарии будущего, сохранение идентичности языков и культур коренных народов.
