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6ECONOMIC SCIENCES
RESULTS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE COUNTRIES THAT CAME OUT OF 1991
Tarko A.
Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Professor of Mathematical Cybernetics Chief Researcher of the Dorodnicyn Computing Centre of the Federal Research Center «Computer Science and Control» of Russian Academy of Sciences
Abstract
The analysis of the economic, demographic and socio-psychological development of Russia and other former USSR countries, the Warsaw Pact and Yugoslavia countries 30 years after 1991 is carried out. The development of two sectors of economy - the high-tech and the raw materials were investigated. Integral Index of Development ID was developed to assess the development of countries that came out of 1991.
Keywords: gross domestic product, economic growth rate, life expectancy, socio-psychological violation, survival to age 65, high-tech development, foreign direct investments, raw materials, integral development index.
1. Introduction
This paper will analyze the results achieved by the countries that went out the USSR and the Warsaw Pact in 1991. In view of thirtieth anniversary of these countries we will compare their economic and social development, will consider the prospects for moving forward. One of the objectives of the study is to compare the results achieved by these countries, including comparison with developed and developing countries of the world.
In 1991, the republics of the former USSR, the Warsaw Pact and Yugoslavia underwent to a market economy regime. The Warsaw Pact countries and Yugoslavia began to develop on the basis of a multi-sector economy, in Russia, the main sector of the economy has become the extraction of raw materials.
Russia and the countries that left the USSR have mostly united into the Union of Independent States (CIS). The countries of the former Warsaw Pact and Yugoslavia after 1991 began to focus on the European Union and NATO. Economic interactions between the two groups of countries are largely weakened.
The aim of this study is to analyze and compare the development of the three groups of countries - former Soviet Union (FSU), the former Warsaw Pact, including the Baltic States that joined their system (FWPB), the former Yugoslavia (FYU). We will compare the development mentioned countries with the European Union and other countries of the world.
The raw materials sector is no longer the only one in Russia. After the beginning of the global economic crisis in 2008, elements of the high-tech sector, the metallurgical sector and agricultural production began to better develop in Russia.
Our task is to study both the economic systems in countries and the living conditions of their population. This means that our way of investigation is differ from the UN program of Human Development Index (HDI). Technically, the method of analysis is based on the consideration of many parameters of development. If the knowledge of GDP per capita, life expectancy and education received by a person are enough to assess the living conditions of a person, then to characterize the
state and development of countries and the social processes going on in them, it is necessary to analyze different parameters characterizing the dynamics of the economy and demographic development of the country to assess the course of processes.
It should be noted that we recently performed a study of HDI of the subjects of the Russian Federation [8]. The study was performed using different principles. The parameters characterizing both positive development and negative phenomena were considered. A large number of parameters were analyzed. This analysis was carried out on the basis of databases of the Federal State Statistics Service [10]. Space remote sensing data were also involved in the work.
Now world development contains two simultaneous processes: 1) scientific and technological progress against the background of economic growth and the continuation of globalization in the countries of the world; 2) the systemic global economic crisis that slows down the economy and all processes that depend on it [4, 5, 6].
The way out of the crisis requires a structural adjustment of the economy; the financial system is part of what needs to be rebuilt. It is necessary to change the structure of economic relations in a globalized world. Now the search for a way out of the situation requires choosing the direction of structural adjustment of the economy, depending on the choice of new development paths. Globalization has not stopped, but its direction and speed have become largely dependent on problems that previously had little impact on decision-making. The search for new ways often takes place by trial and error, and there are undoubtedly quite a lot of these choices. In these conditions, complex mathematical modeling and forecasting acquires new tasks.
All quantitative data were obtained from the World Bank databases [14], and small use of British Petroleum data [13].
2. Economy
Let's start with an analysis of the income in the countries - the gross domestic product per capita (GDP) in each of the countries - the FSU, the FWPB and the FUY (Fig.1). We will compare the development of
countries, including with other developed and also developing countries of the world. On the graph, the countries of each group are represented by groups of columns, in each group in descending order of the parameter value. Further to the right there are the columns average values of the parameters of the countries represented by the World Bank are given: high-income
countries, the European Union, low-income countries and the least developed countries (according to the terminology of the UN). Also data of usual countries presented. GDP is expressed in US dollars, taking into account the purchasing power parity of the dollar at current international prices [14].
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GDP per capita in the groups of countries in 2019, USD
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Fig. 1. GDP per capita in three groups of countries and other values in 2019. Explanations are in the text.
It should be noted that the average income values of the three groups of countries are equal, respectively: FSU - $ 15,012, FWPB - $ 35,513, FUY - $ 25,248. It can be seen that the FWPB countries have achieved higher development, followed by the FUY countries, the FSU countries have the least results. This difference between the countries is also visible visually - the array of columns for the FSU countries is noticeably lower than the FWPB and FUY. It should be added that the highest columns on the chart are the developed countries of the world occupying its right part - from Ireland ($89,684) and Norway ($70,006) to the United States (65,298), Finland (53,172) and France (50,993). Taking into account the fact that the GDP of the European Union is equal to $ 47,828, we see that none of the countries that came out of 1991 has reached either the level of the EU or the level of advanced developed countries.
We see that among the countries of the former Soviet Union, Russia's GDP per capita is the largest - $ 29,181. This value is lower than any the FWPB countries except Bulgaria. Of the FUY countries, Slovenia and Croatia are ahead of Russia. Such an achievement of the former leader of the socialist camp after almost 30 years of development in the new economy is not too great achievement. The income of the United States exceeded the income of Russia by 2.4 times, Germany by 1.97 times, Finland by 1.8 times. In terms of GDP per capita, Russia's rank is 54th in the world, being between Malaysia and Oman. It should also be noted that Russia occupies the 52nd place in the UN list of HDI, and in the list of 27 countries of the FSU, FWPB and FUY it is on the 12th place.
Analyzing the countries of the former USSR, we must note that in addition to Kazakhstan, Belarus, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan, other countries of the FSU are much poorer than Russia - their GDP per capita is almost half as much.
However, the greatest surprise and regret is caused by Tajikistan, whose income, as can be seen from Fig. 1, is close to the poorest World countries - low income and the least developed. This is a self-supporting catastrophe that has been going on for many years.
However, the author knows that mathematical science in Tajikistan is not destroyed - in these conditions, high-quality scientific articles are published, and new generations of scientists are being trained at the Tajik National University at its 18 faculties.
An attentive reader has undoubtedly noticed that the GDP per capita in China ($16,804) is not so much, it is less than the average income in the European Union, its level slightly lower than Belarus ($19,997) and slightly higher than Bosnia and Herzegovina ($16,289). This is due to the specific development of this country. With China's total income comparable to the United States, the income per person is low - rapid high-tech development does not occur throughout all the country, and with a high population, the income per person lags behind the income of a resident of Belarus. We will repeatedly see this phenomenon of transformation of great achievements when moving to the level of one resident of China during subsequent aalysis.
Another conclusion, following from the analysis of Fig. 1, is that the countries of the FWPB and FUY have not achieved the results of the advanced countries
of Europe and the world. Obviously, the system of participation of these countries in the EU has flaws that have not yet become clear. The idea comes that a sufficiently rich European Union could organize active material and technological support for new countries joining it, such as, for example, the European equivalent of the Marshall Plan. However, it seems that these countries have received a very "light" form of such assistance.
Let's consider the growth rates of GDP per capita in 2019 in the studied groups of countries (Fig. 2). We
will immediately notice unexpected phenomena. The average growth rates of GDP per capita in the three groups of countries studied by us were FSU - 3.6%, the FWPB - 3.9% and the FUY - 3.5%. Unexpectedly these rates exceed not only the European Union (1.87%), but also the advanced countries - Denmark -2.41%, Greece - 2.03%, the USA - 1.68%, France -1.37%, Belgium - 1.24%, Finland - 1.06%. In the period of 2012-2019, the pace of development was even less. The exceptions were the countries with special development, China - 5.73% and Ireland - 3.97%.
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Fig. 2. GDP growth rates per capita in the countries of the FSU, FWPB and FUY and the advanced developed countries of the world in 2019. The system of data presentation and notation, as in Fig.1.
The low rates of advanced developed countries, extremely small in terms of their usual development, indicate that most of them are still exposed to the ongoing systemic crisis of the economy. It is hard to believe that the financial crisis of developed countries, which is usually talked about in the West, has been recurring several times over the past 12 years.
As already mentioned, from Fig. 2 it can be seen that the countries of the FSU, FWPB and FUY have growth rates significantly higher than the advanced countries. This circumstance confirms the fact discovered earlier by A.M. Tarko that in the years of increasing crisis, the richest countries are primarily exposed to it, the decline in the development of the less rich occurs a few years later [5, 6].
It should be noted that Russia, Belarus and Azerbaijan have the lowest rates of development not only in their group, but in comparison with the countries of the FWPB and FUY- Russia - 1.41%, Belarus - 1.40, Azerbaijan - 1.37%. Undoubtedly, each "failure" in the growth rate has its own reasons; first of all, this can be seen in the economic crisis and a decrease in oil sales in the years under review.
Consumption of electricity per capita is important characteristic of the both - the standard of living of a person and the level of economic and technological development of his country. These data are presented in Fig. 3.
Fig. 3. Electricity consumption in the countries of the FSU, FWPB and FUY and in the advanced developed
countries of the world in 2014 (kWh per capita)
Electricity consumption in groups of countries in 2014, kWh per capita
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In the given year the electricity consumption (kWh per capita) of four countries that came out of 1991 -Estonia (6,7), Slovenia (6,7), Russia (6,6) and the Czech Republic (6,3) exceeded the average value in the European Union - 6,0. At the same time, the electricity consumption of Finland (15,3) exceeds Russia by 2.3 times, the USA (12,9) - by 2 times, South Korea (10,5)
- by 1.6 times. It means that advanced developed countries live in more comfortable conditions. The average values of electricity consumption - FSU - 2,9, FWPB
- 4,521, FUY 4,378 - are less than the average value of the European Union (6,0). At the same time, the lowest power consumption is in the countries of the FSU.
3. Demography
Let us turn to the analysis of demographic processes. This article was written for the purpose of assessing the development of countries, so we hope to apply the demography not only as the tradition science of population reproduction, but for our purposes - the analysis of socio-economic processes. Let's start with current healthcare spending in 2019. (Fig. 4). We will express health care expenditures not in traditional shares of countries ' incomes, but in real monetary terms per capita.
Current health expenditures per capita in groups of countries in 2019, PPP dollars
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We can see from fig. 4 that in 2019, an average value of expenditure in the FSU was of $ 773 per person. The expenses in the FWPB group were the larger - $ 2,133, in the FUY they are slightly less - $ 1,767. The European Union spent much more per person - $ 4,205. This means that were in the countries of the FSU, on average, spent 5.4 times less. the expenditure on healthcare in Russia amounted to $ 1,488, was 3 times less than in the European Union.
The largest expenditure on health care in FWPB was in the Czech Republic - $ 3,041 (2.0 times more than in Russia), and in the FUY - $ 3,158 (2.1 times more than Russia). It should be noted that health care costs in the United States were $ 10,624, in Germany -$ 6,098, in Finland - $ 4,457 - respectively, the costs were 7.1, 4.1 and 3 times more than Russia. Thus, in relation to healthcare in Russia, the costs are from 3 to 7 times less than in advanced developed countries.
An important fact in the development is that the Central Asian countries - Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan -live in a special world. Having incomes close to the
poorest and least developed countries, they have (as can be seen from Fig. 4), Tajikistan's income is 8.3 times less than Russia's) and health care close to these countries in Tajikistan - $ 250 - is 5.9 times less than Russia,
The backlog of three groups of studied countries cannot be proud of the data on life expectancy at birth (LE) (Fig, 5). The lag countries of the FSU, FWPB and FUY lag far behind other European countries. The average values of LE for the three groups of countries are 72.4 years, 76.7 years and 77.6 years. The value of the European Union is noticeably greater - 81.1 years. For Russia with an LE equal to 73.2 years - this is an 8-year lag. None of the three groups of countries of the FSU, FWPB and FUY, with the exception of Slovenia (81.3 years), exceeds the average value in the EU. These countries are at the bottom positions in Europe. Also, for example, the LE of Japan, 84.4 years, is more than Turkmenistan, 68.2 years, by 16 years, while the LE of Turkmenistan is close to the value of the least developed countries - 65.35 years.
Life expectancy at birth (LE) in gropups of countrues in 2019 r., years
Fig. 5. The values of the life expectancy for groups of countries in 2019
Let's consider another demographic indicator - infant mortality in 2019. (Fig. 6). This value in Russia 4.9, it is is higher than normal values in Europe. The average infant mortality values per 10,000 deaths are 14.3 in the FSU, 3.7 in the FWPB, 3.8 in the FUY. In the European Union, this parameter equals - 3.32, and in high-income countries 4.3. In some of these countries, the minimum values in Europe are reached, but
there are also countries with infant mortality that has not gone far from the Middle Ages - in Turkmenistan it is 36.3, while this mortality in the least developed countries is 44.8. In all the republics in Central Asia, the child mortality rate is higher than 15, and this situation has not been corrected for many years.
Fig. 6. Infant mortality values for groups of countries in 2019
Our next parameter is maternal mortality. in 2019 (Fig. 7). Its value in Russia - 7 is the same as in Germany. However, the average values of the countries of the FSU - 9.7, FWPB - 9.7, FUY - 8.3 exceed the value in the European Union - 6.0. Here the situation is
similar to the situation of infant mortality - some countries have minimum values in Europe, but especially in the countries of Central Asia there are countries with extremely high mortality - in Kyrgyzstan, the maximum is 60. Just as in the Central Asian regions, the decrease in this type of mortality is very slow.
Fig. 7. Maternal mortality values for groups of countries in 2017
There is a new parameter of demography - the probability that men will survive to 65 years (Fig. 8). Again, we see the lowest row of columns belonging to the FSU countries group. On average, the probability of living to 65 years in the countries of the FSS is 67.4%, the FWPB is 73.9%, and the countries of the FYU are 80.6%. The most noticeable result here is a unique phenomenon that Russia has the lowest probability of survival among all the countries under consideration -60.8%! The most dangerous and sad circumstance is
that Russia's value is closest and almost equal value to low-income countries 59.5% and least developed countries 62.2%. This indicates the extraordinary social situation of life in a country that was once a landmark of a bright future. Unfortunately Ukraine and Turkmenistan show close, not much greater values to Russia. Probability of surviving to 65 in the European Union is 84.4%. We see a very big difference. And the greater difference shows Ireland-89.3%, Norway - 89.1%, , South Korea-88%, Great Britain-87.2%.
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Let's consider the share of the population 65 years and older in the countries (Fig. 9). Here Russia is on the 3rd place among the countries of the FSU, but it is inferior to many countries of the FWPB and FYU. The average values of the percentage state of the three groups of countries - FSS-9.7%, FVDB-19.4% , FYU-17.7% show that the share of the elderly is the smallest in the FSU countries.
The next effect we see countries of Central Asia: a situation consisting of a well-known respect for the
4. Socio-psychological violation at a national
scale
Now let's move on to the study of unexpected so-
cio-political disorders in large population groups with the help of using demographic parameters.
We will make a new application for demographic parameters - will use them as indicators of socio-psy-
chological disorders of large of population groups [9]. The author of this paper apparently, is the first who found and applied such use to demographic parameters on a national scale. This phenomenon is first to be detected as incomprehensible and unpleasant phenomenon, then to determine its etiology.
For example, in space medicine the author knows about this [2]. When specialists learned to support a relatively long stay of an astronaut in the orbit, a bad changes in the electrocardiogram were detected. It looked like a strong incomprehensible pathology. Soon it was found that with a sufficiently long stay in weightlessness in the absence of gravity, the internal organs begin to shift in the body. This gave the appearance of a view of strong pathology of the electric cardiogram. When the phenomena was understood, doctors quickly learned to deal with the case.
elderly, but their number is the smallest among all other 1991 countries. This parameter is slightly smaller that in low income countries of the world (3.3): Kyrgyzstan - 4.60 - Uzbekistan - 4.60 - Turkmenistan - 4.59 -Tajikistan - 3.09.
Having the highest child mortality and the smallest proportion of elderly people countries are a slowly eliminate developmental defect that has been going on since ancient times.
So the first large-scaled socio-psychological violation is the emergence of migration of the largest of the population groups of the EU countries from their native countries to its richer countries. The indicator of this was the strong increase of the death rate of population.
If we consider the points of the values of the countries of the world in the plane of the coordinate axes " crude death rate " and "LE" (Fig. 10), we can expect that the values of mortality will decrease with increasing of LE - the points will occupy the diagonal of the corresponding plane of parameters. However, recently, in the range of LE values of 72-77 years, the points have stopped following this direction - in a number of countries death rate in this range has significantly increased! Thus, now the maximum world death rate is 15.5 per 1000 in 2019. It was registered in Bulgaria, and this country with the highest mortality rate in the world, overtaking the traditional champions - the poorest countries in Africa. Now it is joined by Ukraine -14.7, Serbia - 14.6, Latvia - 14.5, Lithuania - 13.7, Romania - 13.4, and other countries.
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Fig. 10. The relationship death rate and life expectancy in the world in 2018 The values of the countries of the FSU, FWPB, FUY and several developed countries of the world are highlighted
In this case, people have started moving to richer countries. Mentioned migration originated several years ago in Europe. A part of the young working-age population that joined the EU or has not yet joined took advantage of free movement and have started moving to richer European countries. The remaining elderly population in their country, in accordance to the Gom-pertz law, has a significantly higher death rate, which is manifested in the statistics of these countries in the form of a "paper" increase of mortality. This phenomenon unintentionally compromised the demographic parameter of total mortality. Statistics have shown an increase in total mortality in such countries to values higher than the maximum mortality in the poorest countries of the world. It should be noted that the mortality parameter in this case has become an indicator of a serious change in the socio-psychological state of the people. The author of this article wrote about this phenomenon several years ago [6, 8].
It should be noted that Bulgaria has the largest number of elderly people among all the countries we are considering - 21.3% (Fig. [9]). This confirms that after moving to work in richer countries of Europe, young workers gave the world not only the highest mortality rate, but also a high percentage of the remaining elderly people in the country.
Now the increase in migration of population to other countries in an increasingly free world is making larger. This can be perceived as one of the manifestations of the idea of the devil's pump of N. N. Moiseev [3]. The difference is that he believed that rich countries would take talented people from developing countries,
but it turned out that modern migration attracts everyone - f the lowest-paid professions to talented people. According to the forecast of A. N. Chumakov and Stychinsky [11] migration from less developed to more developed countries in a few years will significantly increase worldwide and will become a new factor of world development.
Another manifestation of the change in socio-psy-chological living conditions in Europe is a significant increase in negative expectations of the population in some countries, the main of which, apparently, are Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. A parameter is responsible for this is the difference between the life expectancy of women and men (DLE) (Fig. 11). This parameter was proposed by A. M. Tarko a few years ago [6]. He came to the conclusion that DLE is an indicator of unfavorable and unachievable social expectations of large groups of people in society.
On the graph of the DLE in 2019 (Fig. 11) we see that the maximum values of DLE have Belarus - 10.1 years, Ukraine - 10.06 years and Russia - 9.93 years. The remaining values among the FSU countries are noticeably less.
In the FWPB countries the situation with the maximum values of DLE is almost completely repeated for the case of maximum values of the FSU - countries: Lithuania - 9.50 years, Latvia - 9.10 years and Estonia - 8.40 years. There is no something like this in the advanced developed countries of the world - in the EU countries, the average values of DLE are 5.4 years, in high-income countries 5.2 years.
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The mechanism of the "action" of DLE is known. In unfavorable conditions with negative and uncertain expectations, a genetic difference in the physiological properties of women and men is manifested - in men, mortality increases significantly more strongly. This is explained by the diseases that occur to a greater extent in life - threatening diseases - heart attacks, strokes and others. This is confirmed by many studies - including data from ambulance workers [1]. It is worth noting that in 2019 in Russia, the LE of women is 78.2 years, and men - 68.2. The difference in the time of life between
women and men 10 years - is not present either in the poorest or in the richest countries.
Recently, the author found that the number of suicides in Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, as well as Lithuania and Latvia, are the largest in Europe (Fig. 12), and these countries with the highest DLE (Fig. 6) and the largest suicides are the same countries. This is the most reliable confirmation of the fact that the DLE characterizes the unfavorable situation and negative expectations of the population.
Difference in suicides number of men and women in groups of countries in 2019, per 100,000
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According to A.M. Tarko this DLE parameter is not the only one parameter of manifestation of this negative socio-psychological state of the population. Another indicator is the crude death rate: the population of Russia is not prone to mass migrations, but the graph Fig. 8 clearly shows an increase in death rate [5].
It should be added that unfavorable conditions with a lack of decent work, unemployment and other negative conditions contribute to an increase in mortality among men. A few years ago, Federal State Statistics Service (ROSSTAT) data showed that there is a group of about 20 regions mainly around the Moscow region, in which the total mortality is higher than the largest in the world [5??6]. This situation has been going on for several years and has persisted until 2019.
This case shows that the demographic parameter acquires a bright social significance. For Russia to be the last country in Europe with an important parameter that characterizes social life is an unfavorable phenomenon. It is undoubtedly another indicator of trouble.
It should be noted that Bulgaria has the largest number of elderly people among all the countries which we are considering - 21.3% (Fig. 9). This seems to confirm the situation that after moving to work in richer European countries, young workers gave the world not only the highest mortality rate, but also a high percentage of the remaining elderly people in the country.
5. Technical and high-tech development
To analyze the high-tech development of the world countries, almost the same parameters will be needed as in the analysis of the development of a conventional economy, but in a specific area that requires
Let's consider the high-tech exports expressed in US dollars of the countries and groups of countries which we are studying, (Fig. 14). I would like to draw attention to the fact that Russian high-tech exports are
an understanding of the essence of high-tech production. [12]. These parameters express complex interactions of special economic processes that depend both on the decisions of the leaders of countries and on organizations that create high-tech products. The possibility of creating high-tech products depends both on the level of development of the country, the focus of development on obtaining high-tech production, wealth and a well-developed higher education system in the country.
Let's consider the share of income of three groups of countries from the production and export of hightech products in relation to all industrial products in 2019. (Fig. 13). The average values here are as follows: FSU - 8.3%, FWPB - 12.8%, FUY - 6.3%. We see that the FWPB countries have overtaken both the FSU and the FUY. However, out of all three groups of countries, the representative of the FSU - Kazakhstan was in the first place (28.8%). Russia came in second place in the FSU group (13%). Exports of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Latvia amounted to 20.8%, 17.5% and 17.2%, respectively, which is significantly more than that of Russia. However, only Kazakhstan and the Czech Republic surpassed the high-income countries (20.6%) and the European Union (16.1%). But these achievements are small compared to, for example, South Korea (32.4%), China (30.8%), France (27.0%) and Ireland (26.0%). As a result, Russia is on the 9th place in terms of high - tech exports - between Romania and Poland. This position of Russia shows that high-tech exports are not the main point of its development. As we will see, its raw material exports provide
significantly ahead of the FSU countries, and only the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary are ahead of it among the FWPB countries, it is the highest among the FUY countries. Among countries under consideration,
a major share of income.
Fig. 13. Exports of high-tech products in groups of countries, percents of merchandise exports in 2019 is shown
the situation with high-tech products is better than that of Russia, only the Czech Republic - by 3.5 times, Poland - by 2.2 times and Hungary - by 1.8 times.
Russia many years ago was advanced country in the world, but now we must point out that now China
Germany - 20.6 times, South Korea - 18.9 times, the United States - 15.3 times, France - 11.6 times. In general, Now Russia is on the 30th place in the world in this parameter, ahead of Denmark and Slovakia and behind Israel and Brazil.
has 71.9 times more high-tech exports than Russia,
Fig. 14. Export of high technologies in groups of countries of the world in 2019 US dollars. A logarithmic scale
is applied along the horizontal axis.
It should be noted that most of the countries of the FSU - except Kazakhstan and Belarus - have very small high-tech exports (Fig 15). So, if Kazakhstan's exports are 20.7% of Russia, Belarus - 6.97%, then Ar-
menia's exports are 0.42%, Kyrgyzstan - 0.28%, Azerbaijan - 0.26%, Moldova - 0.23%, Uzbekistan -0.19%, Georgia - 0.18%. Tajikistan, unfortunately, has no data on high-tech exports at all.
Fig. 15. Export of high-tech production in groups of countries in percents of merchandise export in 2019
Foreign direct investment in the economy is used for various purposes, but most importantly - it allows you to deploy useful activities of foreign capital on the territory of your country. The influence of foreign direct investment allows for the introduction of more advanced production technologies, more advanced equipment, the production of more advanced products, the import of more advanced management technologies.
Information about foreign direct investment in the countries which we are studying presented in Fig. 16. The average value of direct investment is is 1.87% of GDP in high-income countries, 1.62% in the European
Union, and 2.89% in low - income countries. Hungary has the largest investment of 19.6%. At the same time, Finland - allows itself to have investments - 5.9%, Norway - 3.16%, the United States - 1.64%, China -1.09%. As for the analyzed countries, they do not have less than 1.85%. Russia in this area shows one of the smallest values - 1.88%. Here it should be noted that even poor Tajikistan has direct investments 2.62%. It is worth noting that Turkmenistan (4.80%), Uzbekistan (4.%) and Azerbaijan (3.13%) have one of the largest direct investments.
Fig. 16. Foreign direct investment in groups of countries in 2019
The largest value of foreign investment belongs to Georgia - 7.67%. This circumstance may be explained by the special attitude of Western companies in special conditions when the country ranks penultimate among three countries that came out of 1991 in terms of exports of high-tech products as a percentage (ahead of Uzbekistan) (Fig. 7) and penultimate in terms of exports in monetary units (ahead of Estonia) (Fig. 8).
Computer communication services are the most important type of activity that cannot be replaced by other actions. This includes international telecommunications, computer data processing, and news operations between residents and non-residents; these are construction services, business, professional and technical services, and much more. Now both globalization and the life of ordinary people is impossible without these services. Different European countries participate in this activity in different ways (Fig. 17). On average, commercial services occupy 54% in the European Un-ion%.
However, the distribution of these services varies markedly in different countries. Ireland performs a maximum - 81.7% of these works, Finland - 73.8%
of these works, China - 62.6%, .South Korea. - 51.4%, USA - 48.9%, Norway - 34.0%. This distribution of work has developed historically. The reader will be interested to know that Ukraine is in the first place in the FSU countries - 53.1% and Belarus - 48.2%. Russia makes a little less - 45.8%. Volumes of work in FSU are smaller than the FWPB countries and some of the FUY countries. However, here we are surprised by the sharp decline in the performance of these works among some of the countries of the FSU - from Armenia -22.3% and Azerbaijan - 21.3%, to Uzbekistan - 9.9% and Georgia - 4.4%. It should be noted that poor Kirgizia and Tajikistan perform more computer services than richer Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. This is a manifestation of their higher scientific training, received back in the time of the USSR.
Fig. 17 shows that in 2019 minimum of communication work in three groups of countries is carried out in Georgia. It is difficult to explain this phenomenon for Georgia, which is aspiring to European structures. In addition, as mentioned, it is the penultimate among the countries of the FSU, FWPB and FUY for the export of high - tech products.
-E O
Computer, communications and other services in ggoups of countries in 2019, % of commercial service exports
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Fig. 17. Computer and communication services in groups of countries in 2019 (% of exports)
An element of scientific and technical work is the writing and publication of scientific and technical articles. Fig. 18 shows information about the publication of scientific and technical articles in journals in 2018. We see that Russia was the birthplace of 81 thousand works in 2018. Almost 8 times fewer articles were pub-
lished in Ukraine. However, the rest of the FSU countries have published much fewer articles. Poland published 35 thousand of papers, it is maximum of FWPB. However, all these values are much less than the number of production published in China - 528 thousand, the United States - 422 thousand. The output of Germany - 104 thousands, 22% more than Russia.
Scientific and technical journal articles In groups of countries in 2018.
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Fig. 18. The number ofpapers published in scientific and technical journals of different countries in 2018 A
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6. Extraction and export of raw materials and of natural resources
When we turn to the raw materials sector and to the economy of Russia and other countries, we will see
Oil production in million tones in 2019
that the most popular is oil production. According to British Petroleum (table 1) [13] Russia in 2019 was on the second place in the world, Kazakhstan was on the 13th, Azerbaijan on the 24th place.
Table 1.
Country M^H T
1 USA 746,7
2 Russia 568,1
3 Saudi Arabia 556,6
4 Canada 274,9
5 Iraq 234,2
6 China 191,0
7 United Arab Emirates 180,2
8 Iran 160,8
9 Brazil 150,8
10 Kuwait 144,0
11 Nigeria 101,4
12 Mexico 94,9
13 Kazakhstan 91,4
14 Qatar 78,5
15 Norway 78,4
16 Angola 69,1
17 Algeria 64,3
18 Libya 57,8
19 Great Britain 51,8
20 Oman 47,3
21 Colombia 46,7
22 Venezuela 46,6
23 Indonesia 38,2
24 Azerbaijan 38,1
25 India 37,5
26 Egypt 33,6
27 Malaysia 29,8
28 Argentina 28,8
29 Ecuador 28,5
30 Australia 20,6
31 Congo Rep. 17,4
32 Thailand 17,0
33 Turkmenistan 12,5
34 Vietnam 11,4
35 Gabon 10,9
36 Equatorial Guinea 8,2
37 South Sudan 6,8
38 Chad 6,7
39 Peru 6,1
40 Brunei 5,9
41 Sudan 5,0
42 Denmark 5,0
43 Italy 4,3
44 A country. 4,2
45 USA 3,7
46 Russia 3,6
47 Saudi Arabia 2,8
48 Canada 2,3
49 Iraq 1,0
Fuel sales are more volatile - economic and political factors change more often than equipment for oil production, transportation and refining (Fig. 19). In 2019. Russia was on the 2nd place in terms of export share after Kazakhstan among the FSU countries and
If we compare Russia's fuel exports on the international market (52%) and the export of high-tech products in the export of industrial products (13%) (Fig. 12), then we can conclude that this is a raw country with elements of high-tech development. Since Russia is on the 2nd place in these two indicators, behind Kazakhstan among the FSU countries, and the fact that the decrease in the values of other FSU countries is approximately the same in these cases, it can be concluded that other FSU countries are developing in the same direction as Russia, their main part of their income is fuel sales. The other part is developing on a smaller scale - high-tech sales.
was inferior to Norway in Europe. At the same time, its share of exports was 4.2 times more than that of high-income countries and 11.2 times more than the European Union.
According to British Petroleum, oil consumption in 2019 was as follows (Fig. 19): FSU - 28.3 million tons, FWPB - 5.6 million tons, FUY - 2.3 million tons. According to the data of Table. 1 and Fig. 20 oil consumption in Russia (150.8 million tons) accounted for 26% of production, in the United States - 112.7%. This confirms that, unlike the United States, Russia is a typical raw material country that sells most of the oil from production. For Kazakhstan, this value is equal to 17.3%, for Azerbaijan - 12.9%, which also indicates that these two countries are also raw materials.
Fuel exports in groups of countries in 2018, % of merchandise exports
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The extraction, processing and use of metals has historically always been a respected business in Russia. Data on the sale of ores and metals are shown in Fig. 21. Three groups of countries sold the following shares of their total exports in 2019: FSU - 11.05%, FWPB -3.30%, FUY - 4.96%. The share of Russia was a considerable share - 6.17%. However, the maximum sale was in Armenia - 36.12%, Georgia - 17.66%, Kyrgyz-stan and Kazakhstan - 13.9%, Bulgaria - 12.78%.
These countries significantly support their economies by selling metals. At the same time, high-income countries sold significantly less - 3.68%, and the European Union - 2.64%. Therefore, from the fact that Armenia, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan have less high-tech exports than the average of the European Union, it can be concluded that the high-tech exports of these countries give them less benefit so far.
Fig 21. Export of ores and metals by groups of countries in 2018, % of commodity exports
Fig. 22 shows the export of food in groups of countries in 2019. Exports of the FSU countries amounted to 21.9%, FWPB - 11.6%, FUY - 11.6%.
Among the countries of the FSU, the exports of only Russia and Kazakhstan were less than the European Union, we can conclude that for the rest of the countries
of this group, food exports provide significant revenues. It should be noted that Moldova's exports amounted to 56.1% of the exports of goods, Georgia -37.2%, and Armenia - 31.7%. We know that food exports are a common form of existence for many countries, but these three countries receive a significant part
Let's consider commodity exports in groups of countries (Fig. 23). Russia among countries of 1991 is in the first place here. Note it is equals to 28.2% of Germany's exports. The second largest export country Poland has 17.7%, the third-the Czech Republic has
of their income in this way. Apparently, the same can be said about Lithuania, Latvia and Bulgaria, since they export high-tech products and sell ores and metals less than food.
13.4%. In general, other countries have much less exports than Germany - for the FSU it is - 3.4% of its commodity exports, for the FWPB - 6.4% , for the FUY - 1. 1%. These results indicate that each of the countries that came out of 1991 has a long way to go to turn into a truly developed country.
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Fig. 23. Merchandise exports in groups of countries in 2019, US dollars
7. Calculation of the integral development index ID of the BBS, FWPB and FUY countries
Our task is to calculate the integral index of development ID for the considered parameters. We introduce an integral index of the development of the countries of the FSUB, FWPB, and FYU, based on the use of the considered parameters.
Here is a list of our groups of parameters and parameters:
Economy
1. GDP per capita, USD, 2019.
2. GDP growth rate, USD, 2019.
3. Electricity consumption, kW-hour per capita, 2014.
Demographics
4. Current health care expenditures per capita in, PPP dollars, 2019.
5. Total death rate, , per 1000 deaths, 2018.
6. Life expectancy at birth( LE), years, 2019.
7. Probability of survival to 65 years, men, % of the cohort, 2019
8. Infant mortality, per 1,000 live births, 2019.
9. Maternal mortality, per 100,000 live births, 2017.
10. The difference in the number of LE women and men, years, 2019
11. The number of suicides, per 100,000, 2017.
12. Population aged 65 years and older, % of the total population, 2019.
Technological and high-tech development
13. Exports of high-tech products, % of industrial exports, 2019.
14. Export of high-tech products, USD current, 2019.
15. Exports of goods to high-income countries, % of total exports of goods, 2019.
16. Foreign direct investment in groups of countries, net inflow, % of GDP, 2019.
17. Computer and communication services, % of exports 2019.
18. Computer and communication services, % of imports, 2019.
19. Publication of papers in scientific and technical journals, 2018.
20. Exports of manufacturing products, % of exports of goods, 2019
Export of natural resources
21. Fuel exports, % of goods exports, 2019
22. Oil consumption, million tons, 2019, from British Petroleum.
23. Exports of ores and metals, % of exports of goods, 2019.
24. Exports of food, % of exports of goods 2019
25. Merchandise exports, current USD, 2019.
The method of calculating the ID is based on the assumption that all parameters have equal importance. The rank method is used to calculate the index. All parameters are divided into two types: 1) a larger value corresponds to a larger value from the range of values; 2) a larger value corresponds to a smaller value. In this setting, the ranks of all countries are calculated for each parameter used. Then for each country, from the obtained values the average ranks of all parameters are calculated. Then the ID index is calculated by following method: the obtained values are converted into an ordered rank sequence, so that rank 1 belongs to the best indicator in importance, and 27 belongs to the worst. When implementing on a computer, the Excel program is used, which allows to automatically take into account the lack of data. Then all the parameters are combined into the four groups used and the parameters are converted again, but for each group of parameters into its own rank sequence. It should be noted that due to the different number of parameters in each group, the sum of the ranks calculated for groups of parameters are not equal to the rank for all parameters. The result of calculating the integral index of all the considered variables and indices for the four studied groups is presented in Table 2.
Table 2.
The Index of development (ID) of three groups of countres. The ranks for for each country and group are _ shown. The smaller the rank, the larger its the value. _
N Country Country Index ID Economy Demography Tech. and High Tech Developing Export of Natural Resources
1 Estonia 1 1 5 12 23
2 Czech 2 6 2 2 21
3 Slovenia 3 3 1 7 17
4 Slovakia 4 10 6 6 20
5 Hungary 5 3 10 1 16
6 Montenegro 6 9 3 17
7 Serbia 7 7 11 5
8 Russia 8 13 25 11 3
9 Northern Macedonia 9 18 8 9 19
10 Bosnia and Herzegovina. 10 18 8 19 13
11 Romania 11 10 14 4 12
12 Georgia 12 15 23 23 6
13 Lithuania 13 2 13 13 11
14 Tajikistan 14 24 17 27
15 Poland 15 3 7 3 15
16 Bulgaria 16 8 12 14 3
17 Croatia 17 14 4 15 9
18 Moldova 18 18 26 21 18
19 Kazakhstan 19 10 22 16 1
20 Belarus 19 21 19 20 8
21 Latvian 21 16 17 10 14
22 Azerbaijan 22 26 16 18 22
23 Kyrgyzstan 23 27 24 22 5
24 Armenia 24 17 15 24 1
25 Ukraine 25 22 27 8
26 Uzbekistan 26 25 20 25 9
27 Turkmenistan 27 23 21 26 7
We see that five top lines of the ID table are occupied by countries of FWPB - Estonia, Czech Republic, Slovenia, Slovakia, Hungary. The sixth and seventh places has got countries of FYU: Montenegro and Serbia. The best place from countries of FSU belongs to Russia which occupies the eighth line in the table. In addition the six bottom lines with numbers 22-27 in the table are occupied by the FSU countries - Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan. From these facts it can be concluded that the FWPB is the
best in the unofficial competition of groups of countries.
We can get more detailed data from fig. 24. So, in the FSU group, the section "Economy" the best place with 52 point belongs to FWPB, last one belong to FSU - 100 points. In section "Demography" best place is occupied by FYU with 53 points. Best in "Hi tech" is FWPB with 53 points. Best place in "Raw materials and Nature Resources have won both - FSU and FWPB.
Histogram of the ranks received byeach group of countries in each development section
120
100 4.....r-—-r
Economy Demography Hi Tech Raw materials and
Nature Resources
Fig. 24. Histogram of the ranks achieved by every group of countries. Each of column in four groups of sections shows the rank of one element of groups of countries. The higher the column, the lower its rank
8. Conclusion
In conclusion, we can say that the countries of the former USSR, the Warsaw Pact and Yugoslavia have made significant progress in 30 years of independent life. They have more or less overcome the defects of the previous regime that existed before 1991. The countries of the former USSR achieved the least small success -both in economic development and in social life, which was in addition understood due analize of non-standard demographic parameters and socio-psychological disorder that has manifested itself to a large extent in mentioned three countries. At the same time, Russia has lost a lot - now it is looks like a good team of the second football league, we compare the success of it and other countries of the former USSR with the success of the former Warsaw Pact countries, which are ahead of it in majority of respects. However, they also have difficulties in development, and they all are still far from the first league - advanced developed countries. The former countries of Yugoslavia, which have not yet fully recovered from the recent wars, are also striving forward and are in an intermediate state in terms of success. All countries have a desire to achieve more and are taking actions in moving forward. It is hoped that the efforts of these countries will be successful.
The author has a pleasure to expresses gratitude to Anna Tarko for her help in carrying out computer calculations on for this article.
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