CC BY
0RENEWABLE ENERGY TRANSITION IN THE HEART OF CENTRAL ASIA: SCENARIOS AND FORECASTS FOR UZBEKISTAN
Magsud Guliyev
Azerbaijan Cooperation University, doctoral student Baku, Azerbaijan magsud226@gmail.com https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11030045 Abstract. The modern world has prioritized shifting from traditional energy resources like oil, natural gas, and coal to green energy. Uzbekistan, located in the heart of Central Asia, produces most of its electricity through natural gas and is one of the leading countries in the transition to renewable energy, both on the international stage and among Turkic-speaking states. The issue this paper has put ahead is the calculation of wind and solar energy and their carbon emissions with respect to the replacement of the country's electricity production volume. Calculations reflected that replacing the whole electricity production through solar demands 44000 MW of power, which accounts for 30.8-44 billion USD and 2.968 million tons of CO2. From the wind energy point of view, it comes to a total of 30000 MW, 130.2 bln USD installation cost, and 1.187 mln tons of CO2. Besides that, with the help of econometric calculation, natural gas, electricity production, and GDP volume for 2024-2026 have been predicted. Keywords: wind, solar, transition, renewable, installation. JEL code: Q20; Q21; Q28
MARKAZIY OSIYO QARAGIDA QAYTA OLILADIGAN ENERGIYALARNING O'TISHI: O'ZBEKISTON UCHUN SSENARIYLAR VA PROGNOZLAR.
Magsud Guliyev
Ozarbayjon Hamkorlik Universiteti, doktorant Boku, Ozarbayjon magsud226@gmail.com Annotatsiya. Zamonaviy dunyo neft, tabiiy gaz va ko'mir kabi an'anaviy energiya manbalaridan yashil energiyaga o'tishni birinchi o'ringa qo'ydi. Markaziy Osiyoning markazida joylashgan O'zbekiston elektr energiyasining katta qismini tabiiy gaz orqali ishlab chiqaradi va qayta tiklanadigan energiya manbalariga o'tish bo'yicha ham xalqaro maydonda, ham turkiy tilli davlatlar orasida yetakchi davlatlardan biri hisoblanadi. Ushbu maqolada oldinga qo'yilgan masala shamol va quyosh energiyasini va ularning uglerod chiqindilarini mamlakatning elektr energiyasini ishlab chiqarish hajmini o'rnini bosish uchun hisoblashdir. Hisob-kitoblar shuni ko'rsatdiki, butun elektr energiyasini quyosh energiyasi bilan almashtirish uchun 44000 MVt quvvat talab qilinadi, bu 30,8-44 milliard dollar va 2,968 million tonna CO2 ni tashkil qiladi. Shamol energetikasi nuqtai nazaridan bu jami 30 000MVt, o'rnatish qiymati 130,2 milliardAQSh dollari va 1,187 million tonna CO2 ni tashkil qiladi. Bundan tashqari, ekonometrik hisob-kitoblar yordamida 2024-2026 yillarga mo'ljallangan tabiiy gaz, elektr energiyasi, yalpi ichki mahsulot ishlab chiqarish hajmi prognoz qilingan.
Kalit so'zlar: shamol, quyosh, o'tish, qayta tiklanadigan, o'rnatish. JEL code: Q20; Q21; Q28
ПЕРЕХОД К ВОЗОБНОВЛЯЕМОЙ ЭНЕРГЕТИКЕ В СЕРДЦЕ ЦЕНТРАЛЬНОЙ АЗИИ: СЦЕНАРИИ И ПРОГНОЗЫ ДЛЯ УЗБЕКИСТАНА
Магсуд Гулиев
Азербайджанский Университет Кооперации, докторант Баку, Азербайджан
Резюме. Современный мир уделяет приоритетное внимание переходу от традиционных энергетических ресурсов, таких как нефть, природный газ и уголь, к зеленой энергетике. Узбекистан, расположенный в самом сердце Центральной Азии, производит большую часть своей электроэнергии за счет природного газа и является одной из ведущих стран в переходе на возобновляемые источники энергии, как на международной арене, так и среди тюркоязычных государств. Проблема, поставленная в этой статье, - это расчет ветровой и солнечной энергии и их выбросов углекислого газа с учетом замещения объема производства электроэнергии в стране. Расчеты показали, что для замены всего производства электроэнергии солнечной энергией потребуется 44 000 МВт мощности, что составляет 30,8-44 миллиарда долларов США и 2,968 миллиона тонн CO2. С точки зрения ветроэнергетики, общая мощность составляет 30 000МВт, стоимость установки 130,2 млрд долларов США и 1,187 млн тонн CO2. Кроме того, с помощью эконометрического расчета спрогнозированы производство природного газа, электроэнергии и объем ВВП на 2024-2026 годы.
Ключевые слова: ветер, солнечная энергия, переход, возобновляемые источники энергии, установка
JEL code: Q20; Q21; Q28
To dive into deep analyses, solar and wind energy scenarios have to be examined separately. This study hypothetically examines solar and wind installation perspectives.
Solar energy. Uzbekistan, well-known for its hydrocarbon reserves and natural gas production, produced 74.2 billion kWh of energy in 2022, most of which originated from natural gas (Statistics Agency). Uzbekistan is the second largest state in gas consumption and population after Turkiye among Turkic-speaking countries (bp Statistical Review of World Energy 2022). Considering the ongoing renewable transition in Uzbekistan, theoretical solar energy results in terms of installation cost and possible carbon emissions must be calculated. (see: Table 1)
Table 1. Solar energy installation cost and carbon emissions
1 MW solar 1.700000 kWh
Installation cost (1 MW) 700.000-1000000 USD
Electricity production (2022) 74.2 bln kWh
Total CO2 emission of solar (per kWh 40g) 2.968 mln tons CO2
Electricity production caused CO2 through natural gas (considered hypothetically 74.2 bln kWh) 36.06 mln tons CO2
Required solar power to replace natural gas 44000 MW solar
The required amount to produce only solar energy to replace the rest of the sources 30.8-44 bln USD
Source: Compiled by the author
According to average calculations, the demand to replace total energy production entirely via solar energy is 44000 MW, and its possible carbon emissions stand at 2.968 million tons of CO2. Compared to natural gas, which accounts for theoretically 36.06 million tons of CO2, emissions of solar energy are significantly lower. Solar energy installation expenses that entirely replace natural gas can be between 30.8-44 billion USD. To explain this amount statistically, it encompasses 36.62%-52.31% of the 2023 GDP of Uzbekistan.
Wind energy. Wind energy installation costs are much higher than solar's; however, its generation capacity is also significantly higher. The wind energy scenario from Uzbekistan's perspective is presented in Table 2 below.
Table 2. Wind energy installation cost and carbon emissions
1 MW wind 2.5 - 3 mln kWh
Installation cost (1MW) 4.34 mln USD
Electricity production (2022) 74.2 bln kWh
Total CO2 emission of wind (per kWh 16g) 1.187 mln tons CO2
Electricity production caused CO2 through natural gas (considered hypothetically 74.2 bln kWh) 36.06 mln tons CO2
Required wind power to replace natural gas 25000-30000 MW
The required amount to produce only wind energy to replace the rest of the sources 108-130.2 bln USD
Source: Compiled by the author
Table 2 clearly shows that 1 MW of wind energy is able to generate 2.5-3 million kWh of electricity and the installation price comes to stand at 4.34 million USD. The required wind power is 30000 MW, and it emits 1.187 mln tons equivalent CO2. As for the installation of wind power generation capacity, the expenditure to build this infrastructure is well beyond 100 billion USD. The average cost can be 108 billion USD (minimum scenario) or 130.2 billion USD (maximum scenario), transcending the country's 2023 GDP by approximately 155%
Forecasts for Uzbekistan. The predictions involve natural gas, electricity, and GDP volume in the next two years and 2024. The first one is presented in Figure 1.
Figure 1. Natural gas production and prognosis in Uzbekistan (Compiled by the author)
Table 3. Natural gas forecast in Uzbekistan billion m3
Model 2024 2025 2026
Holt model Forecast 49.8 49.0 48.2
UCL 58.9 58.1 57.4
LCL 40.8 39.9 39.1
Source: Compiled by the author
The predictions above are based on the Holt model, relying on results from previous years. The predictions have been carried out with the help of SPSS software. While UCL indicates Upper Critical Level, LCL means Low Critical Level. In Uzbekistan, natural gas production volume has recently seen a decline. From 2021, this volume started consistently decreasing and ended at 46.3 billion cubic meters in 2023 (Statistics Agency). Calculations based on the Holt model (Expert Modeler) illustrate that in 2024, low and upper critical levels can stand at 40.8 and 58.9 billion m3, respectively. On the whole, till 2026, natural gas production is likely to be between 39.1-57.4 billion cubic meters. The forecasts depict that in 2024, gas production will be 49.8 billion, and in 2025-2026, 49 and 48.2 billion m3, respectively.
Figure 2. Electricity production and prognosis in Uzbekistan (Compiled by the author)
Table 4. Electricity production and prediction in Uzbekistan bln kWh
Model 2024 2025 2026
Holt model Forecast 80.9 84.2 87.5
UCL 85.9 92.2 98.8
LCL 75.8 76.2 76.2
Source. Compiled by the author
As to electricity production and its prediction, an upward trend is observed. Total electricity in 2024 might be 80.9 billion kWh, and LCL and UCL indicate the range of electricity can be in 2024 75.8-85.9 billion kWh, in 2025 (forecast 84.2 billion kWh) 76.2-92.2 and in 2026 (forecast 84.2 billion kWh) 76.2-98.8 billion kWh. When taking into consideration Uzbekistan's future economic development plan and programs, it must be noted that this inclination of the state can reach the goal of putting ahead and also can remake the country's development in an utterly positive direction (Sultanov, 2023).
The last prediction is related to the country's nominal GDP, and this examination proved that, as in the electricity production, the volume of nominal GDP is likely to grow in the 20242026 (World Bank Open Data). The study base has been employed since 2018 taking into account recent economic plans and programs, and future-forward development inclination should be
concentrated on the years from 2018-2023 to discover actual development (Satubaldina, 2023). The nominal GDP volume between 2018 and 2023 was thriving, and based on this calculation, it can reach 90.54 billion USD in 2024. To scrutinize LCL and UCL, we should pay close attention to Figure 3 and Table 5.
Figure 3. Nominal GDP volume and prognosis in Uzbekistan (Compiled by the author)
Table 5. Nominal GDP volume and prediction in Uzbekistan
Model 2024 2025 2026
Holt model Forecast 90.54 96.99 103.45
UCL 100.19 107.06 113.91
LCL 80.89 86.93 92.98
Source: Compiled by the author
Figure 3 shows an upward trend between 2024 and 2026, and LCL-UCL can range from 80.89 to 113.91 billion USD. The GDP in 2023 was 84.1 billion USD, and the forecast shows that in 2024, it might reach 90.54, in 2025, 96.99, and 2026, 103.45 billion USD.
Conclusion. This study hypothetically examined Uzbekistan's total wind and solar energy transition in terms of carbon emissions, installation cost, and required power. Besides that, to determine the future development of the country, electricity, natural gas, and GDP volume were calculated using the SPSS software program on Expert Modeler forecast. Predictions have shown that electricity production and GDP volume will likely increase. Electricity production will stand at 75-98.8 billion kWh in 2024-2026, with nominal GDP volume at 80.89-113.91 billion USD. Concerning natural gas production, it will be between 40.8-58.9 billion cubic meters in the years noted above. With respect to the total transition to solar and wind energy, this study exposed the truth that the mentioned energy sources will also emit carbon emissions. However, compared to natural gas, their emissions will be significantly lower, and according to our calculations, the total transition to solar energy might emit 2.968 million tons of CO2, while the transition to wind energy might stand at 1.187. When it comes to transitioning to solar fully, it may account for 36.62-
52.31% of the 2023 country's GDP; in contrast, the entire transition to wind is approximately
155%.
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