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49Отношения между Таиландом и Россией в период текущего глобального кризиса
Пунгчингнгам Катима
аспирант факультета международных отношений Санкт-Петербургского Государственного университета, katima.p@arts.tu.ac.th
Статья посвящена отношениям между Таиландом и Россией во время текущего глобального кризиса: вспышки коронавируса COVID-19 и конфликта между Россией и Украиной. Цель статьи - рассмотреть взаимодействие между двумя странами в течение этого периода, проанализировать влияние двух кризисов на двустороннее сотрудничество, а также проанализировать факторы, влияющие на текущую динамику этих отношений. В качестве основы для анализа используется теория неореализма. При анализе собранных данных используются качественные методы исследования. Статья посвящена подробному анализу как первичных, так и вторичных данных. Полученные результаты свидетельствуют о том, что динамичное развитие политического, экономического и туристического сотрудничества замедлилось из-за вспышки пандемии. Обе страны пытаются сотрудничать в области вакцинации, но их усилия пока не достигли цели. В случае конфликта между Россией и Украиной, отключение российских банков от платежной системы SWIFT и сетей обработки платежей вызвало проблемы в индустрии путешествий. На международной арене Таиланд решает удерживать равновесие в отношениях с Россией и другими партнерами. Новизна статьи заключается в том, что пандемия и российско-украинский кризис повлияли на развитие текущего сотрудничества. Кроме того, роль США и Китая является одним из решающих факторов, влияющих на двусторонние отношения.
Ключевые слова: Таиланд, Россия, Кризис, Пандемия COVID-19, Российско-украинский конфликт
Introduction. Before the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine crisis, Thailand-Russia relations developed dynamically. In the aftermath of the April 2015 official visit by the Russia's Prime Minister to Thailand, Russia raised the proposal of signing a Free Trade Agreement between Thailand and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). After that, the Thailand-Russia relations evolved around the consistent diplomatic visits between countries' leaders and high-ranking officers, and the meetings were held to discuss the cooperation in different dimensions and the agreement signing between the government sector and private sector. Furthermore, during the ASEAN-Russia Commemorative Summit in 2016, Russia proposed the Greater Eurasian Partnership strategy, whereby Russia strengthens cooperation between the EAEU, SCO, and ASEAN. For example, ASEAN and the Eurasian Economic Commission signed Memorandum of Understanding on Economic Cooperation in 2018.
In 2019, all countries faced the COVID-19 pandemic that was considered as a non-traditional security threat and affected all area of international relations. At the beginning of 2022, there was a conflict between Russia and Ukraine which caused tensions in the international arena. The two crises are considered as the challenge that affects the current bilateral relations.
In this article, the author focuses on the impact of the crises on cooperation between the two countries and examines the factors that influence the dynamics of relations during that time. This article is on in-depth analysis of both primary and secondary data. In addition, the author examines statistic on bilateral trade and tourists to indicate the effects of the crises. The neorealism is used as a conceptual framework in this study to understand the structure of the international system that affects the implementation of Thai foreign policy towards the major powers and the interaction between Thailand and Russia.
This article is useful for people who are interested in relations between Thailand and Russia during those crises, the consequences of both the pandemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine as well as factors influencing Thailand's position on the current state of relations with Russia.
The COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis and Thailand-Russia Vaccine Cooperation. The COVID-19 is an emerging disease that no country has ever faced. Each country works hard to find solution to the crisis. Major powers, like the United States, China, the European Union, and Russia are all affected by the pandemic. In the early stages of this crisis, major powers did not play
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a cooperative role in resolving such issues and opted to restrict the distribution of medical aid to their allies. Thailand had to deal with the situation on its own and seek support from the major powers. Thailand attempted to provide a ready-to-use vaccine; therefore, Thailand received the Sinovac vaccine from China and the Pfizer vaccine from the US.
In March 2019, China contributed medical supplies to Thailand to deal with the outbreak [16]. China was the first country to sell 200,000 doses of Sinovac vaccine to Thailand on February 24, 2021. With the support of the government of China, Thailand imported and purchased the first vaccine through trade channel. In addition, on May 14, 2021, China provided 500,000 doses of vaccine to Thailand and donated an additional 500,000 doses on January 8, 2022. Up until now, China has provided Thailand with 50.85 million doses of vaccines in total, including 3.35 million as donations [17].
The US assisted Thailand in dealing with the outbreak. The US government supported Thailand with medical supplies and funding to upgrade laboratories from the beginning of 2020. On August 2, 2021, they provided 1.5 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine [5] and on November 22, 2021, they delivered 1 million doses of Moderna vaccine [8].
Furthermore, there were many countries which provided vaccines and medical supplies to Thailand. For example, in July 2021, the government of Japan provided over 1 million doses and the UK also provided 415,000 doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine. Switzerland donated 1.1 million COVID-19 antigen test kits and 102 respirators. On April 4, 2022, France donated 3.28 million doses of Pfizer vaccine [6].
Russia was one of the nations attempting to manufacture a vaccine to cope with the disease in the outbreak of the COVID-19, and it was the first countries to claim vaccine production success. Thailand expressed interest in the Sputnik V vaccine to handle this crisis. In April 2021 Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha said the Russian Foreign Ministry informed its Thai counterpart that President Vladimir Putin approved the sale of the vaccine, as requested by the Thai government [12]. Nevertheless, the import of vaccines was a complicated procedure because a government-to-government deal was required when purchasing vaccines. The Thai Ministry of Public Health had to negotiate directly with the vaccine manufacturer. Provided Thai private sector wanted to be Thai representatives to import Russia's vaccines, they must be certified or ordered only by the Thai government.
Thailand and Russia have tried to collaborate vaccine cooperation. For example, the Thai Minister of Ministry of Public Health and the Ambassador of Russia to Thailand met on May 17, 2021, and they discussed the supply of Sputnik V vaccine from Russia to Thailand [3]. The recent progress of vaccine cooperation was that in June 2021, the Food and Drug Administration received information from Kingen Biotech Co., Ltd., which applied to the FDA for authorization for Russian vaccines. However, the FDA could not authorize the import or use of vaccines because of lack a lot of critical information [11].
Although the two countries did not achieve their goal of vaccine cooperation, Thailand approved Sputnik V to permit Russian tourists to enter the country as part of the Phuket Sandbox Samui Plus and Phuket Sandbox extension 7+7 (Phuket, Samui, Krabi, Phang Nga) projects beginning on September 1, 2021. On November 6, 2021, both parties collaborated to open direct flight from Moscow to Phuket. Russian tourists were a significant group of European travelers. According to official Thai statistics from 2016 to 2019, 1.09, 1.34, 1.46, and 1.48 million tourists respectively from Russia visited Thailand [9].
Many countries in Southeast Asia, namely Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Cambodia, registered the Sputnik V vaccine for emergency use. Russia provided vaccines to the Philippines, Vietnam, and Laos. Considering vaccine cooperation between Russia and Vietnam, Vietnam successfully produced the Sputnik V vaccine in July 2021 [13]. Additionally, Russia also delivered the Sputnik Light vaccine for humanitarian aid in December 2021 [14].
The United States' and China's vaccine diplomacy is the use of vaccines to influence not only Thailand but also other countries in Southeast Asia. In the beginning of the epidemic, Thailand chose to approach only China about vaccine. However, there was the criticism of effectiveness of Chinese vaccine from the Thai private sector and people. When the United States produced a more effective vaccine that could better deal with mutant epidemics, Thailand turned to the United States for support. The vaccine of the two major powers was driven by the Thai government to actively negotiate. While the Thai private sector tried to register the Russian vaccine, there was a problem with submitting incomplete documents. The Russian vaccine was one of the alternative vaccines that the private sector attempted to import to alleviate the epidemic situation. Although Thailand and Russia used diplomatic mechanisms to discuss the possibility of importing vaccine, they could not achieve their goal. Thailand was interested in vaccines, like Sinovac; Sinopharm; AstraZeneca; Pfizer; and Moderna, which already registered and agreed to sell and deliver vaccines to stimulate the immune system. It could be indicated that there was no room for Russian vaccine.
Russia-Ukraine Crisis and Impact on bilateral and multilateral level. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine that has occurred since February 24, 2022. The war does not directly affect Thailand because taking place outside the Asia-Pacific region. However, Thailand has been affected due to the suspension of direct flights, western sanctions against Russia and Thailand's position in the international arena.
Economic relations between Thailand and Russia have been slightly affected. The share of bilateral trade in 2021 was 0.51% of the total Thai trade with all countries. The share of trade between January and July 2022 decreased 0.34% from same period in 2021 that was 0.54% [10]. However, Thailand could be affected because the global economic situation slowly
recovered. In addition, the demand for Thai export products has decreased [4], because European countries which are Thailand's major export markets, have been affected by the conflict [2].
Russian tourists traveled to Thailand after Aeroflot resumed flights to Thailand, and Thai government eased of COVID-19 restrictions of travel regulations because of Thailand's approval of the Sputnik V to allow Russian tourists to visit Thailand. According to the official Thai statistics, from November 2021 to February 2022, Russian tourists arriving in Thailand totaled 30,759 people, with the number of them in November 2021 of 5,836; December 2021, 21,205; January 2022, 23,760; and February 2022, 17,862 people, respectively. The Thai tourism sector has recovered from the regression of the past few years. However, due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the suspension of direct flights, the number of Russian tourists has decreased. Considering the number of Russian tourists from March to August 2022 were 9,197; 5,223; 7,116; 8,221; 6,936 and 9,170, respectively. In comparison to the same period in 2019 before the pandemic, the number of tourists from March to August were 194,471; 108,308; 55,738; 45,962; 46,737 and 46,325 respectively [9]. Moreover, when Russia canceled direct flights between Thailand and Russia, about 7,000 Russian tourists were stranded in Thailand in March 2022. The Thai government assisted in providing temporary accommodation, finding flights back to Russia, providing alternative payment systems and extending their stay in the country.
Russian tourists and businessmen visiting to Thailand are faced with the problem of financial messaging system and the payment processing networks. The western countries impose sanctions against Russian major banks. Russia has been disconnected from the SWIFT, and then Visa and Mastercard payment systems. For this reason, Russian credit and debit cards cannot be used abroad. At the same time, Thai people who travel to Russia cannot use credit and debit cards either. Thai people have to use Chinese UnionPay credit or debit cards, which few Thai banks have. The disconnection of Russian banks from SWIFT system and the payment processing networks may affect the decision to travel between the two countries.
This conflict also affects the implement of Thai foreign policy. Thailand carefully determined its position on the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the international arena. During the 11th Emergency Special Session of the UN General Assembly on March 2, 2022, member states voted on the United Nations General Assembly Resolution ES-11/1 "Aggression against Ukraine" with 141 in favor (including Thailand), 5 against and 35 abstentions from a total of 181 countries attending the meeting [18]. Thailand had an Explanation of the Vote to explain why Thailand voted support the UN resolution to condemn Russia's aggression against Ukraine. Thailand explained that Thailand carefully considered the draft and voted in support of the resolution because of the overriding importance Thailand attaches to the principles
contained in the United Nations Charter and international law, in particular respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity and the non-use of force against countries. Thailand underlines the deep concern for the people affected by the tensions and the humanitarian consequences. Thailand is also concerned with the potential longer-term consequences on a rules-based international order while renewing its call for peace and for all parties to enhance dialogue [7]. In addition, Thailand voted on Resolution ES-11/2 "Humanitarian consequences of the aggression against Ukraine" with 140 votes in favor (including Thailand), 5 against, and 38 abstentions from a total of 183 countries attending the meeting [19].
On the other hand, Thailand abstained in a vote on Resolution ES-11/3, "Suspension of the rights of membership of the Russian Federation in the Human Rights Council", with 93 votes in favor, 24 against, and 58 abstentions [20]. According to Thailand's decision on abstention from voting on resolution ES-11/3, Thailand explained that because of the overriding importance that Thailand attaches to a transparent, impartial, and inclusive approach in the multilateral regime. A decision to suspend the membership of a Member State in any United Nations' body cannot be taken lightly. The process must be done through careful consultations, based on principles, verified facts, and taking into account careful consultations, based on principles, verified facts, and taking into account constructive opinions as well as foreseeable consequences [6].
At the multilateral level, ASEAN foreign ministers also issued a joint statement on the situation in Ukraine ASEAN on February 26, 2022. ASEAN calls on all relevant parties to exercise maximum restraint and make utmost efforts to pursue dialogues through all channels, including diplomatic means to contain the situation, to de-escalate tensions, and to seek peaceful resolution in accordance with international law, the principles of the United Nations Charter and the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia [1].
Considering Thailand's Explanation of the Vote on UN resolution ES-11/1, Thailand attempts to express its attachment to international law and respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity, and non-violence. Thailand supports enhancing dialogue through negotiations to settle the situation. According to Thailand's abstention in a vote on resolution ES-11/3, it can be said that compromising expression is the most profitable choice for Thailand. Thailand attempts to appear neutral and does not come into conflict with Russia, Ukraine, European countries, and the United States. Therefore, Thailand issues an Explanation of Vote to explain to all counterparts to understand. The Russian government understands Thailand's position. It is an evident that when the Russian government announces a list of countries-territories that are hostile to Russia, Russian companies, and citizens, those countries are countries participating in sanctions against Russia without Thailand on the list [15].
Challenges to the current Thailand-Russia relations. Considering the relations between Thailand
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and Russia through the framework of neorealism, it can be explained that the structure of international system is a key factor formulating the interaction between Thailand and Russia. With the situation in Thailand and Southeast Asia where various major powers namely the United States, China, the European Union, and Russia, play a role and expand their influence in terms of politics, security, and economy. The balance of power between the major powers is one strategy of Thailand's foreign policy.
Since 2015, relations between Thailand and Russia have been developed dynamically in terms of political, economic, and socio-cultural at both bilateral and multilateral levels. Considering the factors that contribute to Russia's Turn to the East policy, Russia faces economic sanctions from the United States and their allies. Russia has to find new markets and friendly countries in Asia in order to maintain its role in the international political arena and have supportive partners. After the Crimea 2014, Thailand is one of the targeted countries in Southeast Asia.
In term of Thailand after 2014, Thailand faces economic pressure from the aftermath of the coup d'état in Thailand. Moreover, the United States and the European Union have pressure on Thailand to reform internal politics and restore democracy as soon as possible. The Thai government, therefore, chooses to pursue ties with China. China has played an important role in the Thai economy and has involved in the development of Thai infrastructure, such as of the highspeed double-track railway project. In addition, Thailand has taken advantage of the opportunity that Russia has played a role in the region in counterbalancing power with the United States and China. Thailand's interactions towards China and Russia can be considered as "External balancing," which is to build the cooperation with other states in the form of alliance or strategic partnership. Thailand aims to show the United States that Thailand has an option to interact with foreign countries and is not solely dependent on the United States as well as to increase its bargaining power in the international arena. At the same time, Thailand strengthens relations with Russia to counterbalance its power with the United States and China. In other words, Thailand creates conditions for the United States to reconsider its relations with Thailand. In term of China, although China is not a major power that poses a threat to Thailand's security, Thailand's over-reliance on China may result in Thailand losing its bargaining power in economic relations in the future.
During the pandemic Thailand and Russia face challenges that affect the dynamics of cooperation in all aspects. In terms of political relations, political cooperation is carried out through teleconference systems in the framework of international organizations, such as the Special ASEAN-Russia Foreign Ministers' Meeting on COVID-19 in June 2020, the ASEAN Summit with Dialogue Partners in November 2020, and the 17th ASEAN-Russia Senior Officials Meeting in January 2021. It can be indicated that Thailand and Russia have continued the dynamics of political cooperation; however, it is rather a routine
operation. In the aspect of economic relations, there are no new initiatives between Thailand and Russia. The two parties are still in the process of studying the possibility of establishing economic cooperation through the mechanism the Joint Working Group on Cooperation between Thailand and the Eurasian Economic Commission. As for the humanitarian cooperation, China and the United States have played a role in vaccine and medical assistance to Thailand. There is no room for Russia to play this role. Considering Thailand foreign policy during the pandemic, Thailand attempts to approach Russia to counterbalance China's role in vaccines. However, Thailand continues implement vaccine cooperation with China because of the deep economic ties between Thailand and China, like exports, investment and tourism. Although Thailand has continuously tried to implement a balanced foreign policy, Thailand has faced difficulties. Thailand and Russia have turned to restore people-to-people travel, especially since Thailand has approved Russian vaccines and Russia has opened direct flights from Russia to Thailand again. It is the starting point for cooperation activities between the two countries after the epidemic crisis.
After the pandemic Thailand attempts to restore tourist cooperation with Russia, Thailand eases COVID-19 restriction and support tourism and interaction. When the crisis between Russia and Ukraine occurs, the international arena is stressful. The conflict escalates to a conflict between the Russia and West led by the United States and European countries. Thailand is not a part of the ongoing conflict, and the conflict takes place outside the Asia-Pacific region. Owing to close and intimate relations with the United States and European countries, and long-lasting relations with Russia, Thailand has tried to maintain balanced relations with all counterparts. Considering Thailand's position in the United Nations, Thailand carefully expresses its position and tries not to take sides with anyone. Although Thailand does not support Russia actively, Russia continues to maintain friendship with Thailand.
Conclusion. From the point of view of Thailand, from the past to the present, Russia is one of the actors playing a role in balancing other major powers that have played a role in Thailand. The international system changes into multipolar system in the present century. The balance of power and the structure of the international system are the key factors influencing Thailand's relations with Russia. Likewise, Russia wants to play its role in the Asia region and find new strategic partners in the Asia region.
During the time of current global crisis Thailand and Russia face challenges. In addition, Thailand has faced competition from the major powers like the United States, China and Russia. Thailand has continuously tried to implement a balanced foreign policy in order to maintain its security and economic interests. In other words, Thailand remains an ally with the United States and is a strategic partnership with China and seeks to upgrade Russia as another strategic partnership.
On the other hand, Thailand loses an opportunity to enhance relations with Russia during the pandemic. Thailand is unable to push forward cooperation on vaccine with Russia, especially in comparison to its neighboring ASEAN countries that benefit from Russian vaccines to alleviate the epidemic situation and have a wide range of alternative vaccines. Although Thailand needs assistance from Russian medical technology and science, Russia is unable to maintain an opportunity to develop cooperation with Thailand. During the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Thailand chooses to implement foreign policy with a reasonable distance to get the benefit from all counterparts. Russia must keep its friendly countries, especially Asian countries, to lessen the impact of Western sanctions. According to Russia's view, Thailand may not be a close friend of Russia but not be an enemy. At the present Thailand and Russia must carefully consider the situation and wait for new opportunities to develop their cooperation.
Relations between Thailand and Russia in the time of current global crisis Poungchingngam K.
Saint Petersburg State University
The article is devoted to the relations between Thailand and Russia during the current global crisis, both the COVID-19 outbreak and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The article's objectives are to examine the interactions between the two countries throughout this time, to analyze the effects of two crises on bilateral cooperation, and to analyze factors influencing the current dynamics of those relations. Neorealism theory is used as a framework for analyzing. Qualitative research methodology is used in analyzing collected data. This article is on in-depth analysis of both primary and secondary data. The findings suggest that the dynamics of political, economic, and tourism cooperation have been slowed down by the outbreak. Both countries attempt to collaborate on vaccination, but their efforts have not yet reached their goal. In the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the disconnection of Russian banks from SWIFT system and the payment processing networks has caused problems in travel. In the international arena Thailand decides to balance relations with Russia and other counterparts. The novelty of the article concludes that the pandemic and Russia-Ukraine crisis have affected the development of current cooperation. Furthermore, the role of the United States and China is one of the crucial factors influencing bilateral relations. Keywords: Thailand, Russia, Crisis, COVID-19 pandemic, Russia-Ukraine conflict
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