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Section 3. Geography
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.20534/ESR-16-9.10-38-39
Usmanov Zakir Karimovich, Junior scientist, Scientific research center «Scientific bases and problems of development of the economy of Uzbekistan»,
the Tashkent State Economic University, E-mail: uzk.com@mail.ru
Regional peculiarities of motor transport development in Uzbekistan
Abstract: This article highlights the territorial peculiarities of motor transport development in Uzbekistan. Also, the condition estimate and the forecast of GRP production imposing the level of development and densities of highways were conducted. Keywords: motor transport, the gross regional product (GRP), infrastructure, transport and geographical model, forecast-
ing, region.
The statements of prominent academic economists and economic geographers of Europe, Russia and other countries such as V. Kristallera, A. Lyosha, N. Kolosovskogo, N. Baranskogo, I. Tyunena, A. Weber and etc. received real, practical confirmation. They state that the role of transport will steadily increase due to the level of economic development and the corresponding transformation of its territorial organization. Besides, a similar process covers almost all countries and regions of the world, including the Republic of Uzbekistan. This article focuses particularly on the condition estimation for the GRP manufacture per capita imposing the level of development and density of highways in the region.
It is known that the most important task for the present stage of the socio-economic development of regions is to ensure sustainable economic growth as a basis for raising the level and quality of life. This task requires a dynamic and balanced development of all the structural components of the regional system, including transport and, primarily, infrastructure of highways, which currently plays a leading role in determining the prospects for socio-economic development of regions.
Based on this, the reinforcement of regional functions of transport infrastructure supports the objectives of the transport system of the Republic of Uzbekistan for the period until 2020 [1]. However, the goals of the regional development determine the need not just to implement transport infrastructure projects on the territory of a region, but to agree on regional and transport strategies of the development taking into account the positive and negative factors of transport infrastructure impacts on the region, which is not being fully taken into account during the current development of regional improvement programs.
The experience of developed countries shows that the development of the road network and transport infrastructure determines the intensity of economic relations and is considered as one of the most important conditions for the growth ofthe national economy. The rapid and intensive growth of the national economy may be limited and even stopped by infrastructural constraints, which mean poor quality roads and low bandwidth road network infrastructure (bridges, tunnels) [2, 14]. Once again, the world experience shows that due to the increase in the transport dependence, integration and speed of communication between the regions, the standard of living in cities and regions can be leveled out [3, 9]. People would get the opportunity to develop their region and quick access to the central places [4], the poles and the growing points. In addition, well-developed road infrastructure is another indicator determining the level of social development.
To deal with the problems of the restricting development of the region and interregional space, it is necessary to modernize trans-
port infrastructure of the regional economic system which is capable of creating new organizational-economic schemes and algorithms of regional and interregional management of infrastructure development of territories. Herewith, the modernization of the transport infrastructure in the regions must be realized on the basis of rational use of gained and newly acquired foreign and domestic experience of the regional transport infrastructure with the direct management and control at the state level [5].
In European practice, strategic planning of transport infrastructure is based on one of two basic approaches:
— Demand-oriented approach (orientation on demand) — in which the revealed and the desired degree of mobility is taken into account;
— Goal-oriented (orientation on goal) — in which political objectives are taken into account. Both these approaches (demand-oriented and goal-oriented) are confirmed by techno-economic justification and the opportunity of funding a project from a variety of sources [6].
As foreign experience shows, the practice of realizing investment projects in the transport system sets high requirements for the process of reasoning economic efficiency and investment attractiveness of infrastructure projects. One of the fundamental elements of this process is the modeling of causation GRP indicators per capita imposing the density of highways on the 1000 km2, the purpose of which is the analysis and forecasting of demands for automotive infrastructure objects [7, 36]. The organization ofvarious correlation models allows evaluating the most popular application objects of investments in road infrastructure (republican, interregional, inter-farm roads and ring roads around major agglomerations) at the regional level. The particular importance in this case is given to the estimate of the transport infrastructure development on a national or regional level; in this case, the implementation of the data about the density of highways per area unit (1000 km2, depending on geographical factors (size) and the availability of roads. These tasks can be dealt with the help of transport models. Transport models allow considering short-, medium-and long-term effects, as the most important instrument ofjustification of the key directions of transport links development. At present, transport and geographical models are ubiquitously and successfully applied with the following purposes:
— to develop planning of road network considering the increase in load;
— to calculate the effectiveness of the projects, their impact on the economic development of the region as a whole;
— to analyze proposed project solutions and their optimization;
Regional peculiarities of motor transport development in Uzbekistan
— to improve the interaction among different transport systems.
Based on data over the period 1999-2014, (aiming at providing the greater objectivity in the condition estimate of links, Tashkent region and Tashkent city have been excluded from calculations) calculations were carried out to forecast parameters X and Y until the year 2025. Besides, it was determined that y=f(t) which can be expressed in the form off(t) = a1t2+a2t+a3, where a1, a2, a3 are coefficients of the least squares method.
Table 1. - Regional indicators of motor
If in 1999 the difference between Navoi region, where there was a high level of GDP per capita and Namangan region with the lowest GDP per capita was 2,1 times, by 2025 the gap between Navoi region and the Republic of Karakalpakstan is projected to increase, where the lowest GRP per capita is to 3.8 times.
According to the indicators of the density of motor roads until 2025, there is not an observed significant increase by regions. In the future it is anticipated that there will be a further increase in freight rates and passenger traffic in all regions of the country, especially in highly industrialized regions as Navoi, Bukhara and Kashkadarya
Using this method, it has been determined that y=17,128 t2-102,37 t + 277,35. Here, the coefficient of determination equals RI = 0.986, which indicates the high interdependence of variables. On the basis of these data, forecast parameters of growth GRP per capita until 2025were determined. The data in Table 1 indicate high rates of GRP per capita, almost in all regions of the country. Meanwhile, there is a significant increase in disproportion among the separate regions of the country.
road density and GRP per capita* [8]
regions. Based on this, the most important trends in reduction of gap level in GRP and the level of road infrastructure development among the regions should be:
— to further improve the quality of road infrastructure in the regions with the highest density of road network;
— to raise the density of highways in regions with high levels of GRP per capita;
— to increase the density of railways in regions with a large area of territory (the Republic of Karakalpakstan, Bukhara and Navoiy regions).
1999 2014 2025
GRP, thousand UZ Sum per capita (Y) Road density km/1000 km2 (X) GRP, thousand. UZS per capita (Y) Road density km/1000 km2 (X) GRP, thousand. UZS per capita (Y) Road density km/1000 km2 (X)
The Republic of Karakalpakstan 56 26,4 2075,6 25,2 6545,9 25,5
Regions:
Andijan 48,8 581,4 3258,6 604,7 9999,7 623,4
Bukhara 97 99,3 4569,2 101,7 13967,6 103,0
Jizzakh 55,2 117,9 2662,1 122,6 8201,4 124,7
Kashkadarya 73,3 122,5 3589,2 133,0 11667,6 139,5
Navoi 116,3 40,5 8349,9 41,4 26025,9 42,3
Namangan 54,1 470,4 2401,5 457,0 7753,1 467,9
Samarkand 62,1 244,5 2643 250,4 8430,3 258,1
Surkhandarya 60,3 139,3 2604,1 144,3 8567,2 147,0
Syrdarya 87,7 327,1 3493,6 350,5 11655,5 369,3
Fergana 95,8 606,5 2846,2 621,3 8709,8 644,0
Khorezm 79,8 380,2 2786,4 380,2 9129,9 410,0
*At current prices
References:
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