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НАУКИ О ЗЕМЛЕ
«наука. инновации. технологии», №3, 2017
УДК 911.37 Белозеров В.С. [Belozerov V.S.], Черкасов А.А. [Cherkasov A.A.]
региональные особенности формирования этнической структуры населения россии12
Regional Features of Shaping the Ethnic Structure in the Russian Population
В статье представлен подробный анализ динамики изменения этнической структуры населения в России во второй половине XX начале XXI века. Значительная часть работы посвящена региональным особенностям формирования этнической структуры населения регионов России, в том числе рассмотрена в разрезе городской и сельской местности. Данный анализ позволил выявить общие черты формирования этнической структуры населения у регионов, а так же обозначить их индивидуальные особенности. На основе такого ранжирования была предложена следующая типология регионов по характеру формирования этнической структуры населения: регионы с относительно стабильным этническим составом населения; регионы с активно меняющимся этническим составом населения; регионы интенсивной полиэтнитизации. Достаточно важным при проведении данной типологии, является выявление регионов, у которых внутренние, этнорегиональные процессы наиболее выражены и отклоняются от средних показателей по стране. Регионы с активно меняющимся этническим составом населения и регионы интенсивной полиэтнитизации требуют более пристального внимания, так как активная смена этнического состава населения может выступать конфликтогенным фактором.
The interest taken by Russian researchers in studying the ethnic structure of the Russian population is due to a number of factors. First, Russia is a multiethnic country, with both vast areas sparsely inhabited by the small peoples of the North and the Far East, and areas with various ethnic groups concentrated together - the South of Siberia, the Volga region, the North Caucasus. Second, the contemporary migration processes change the ethnic structure of the population in the Russian regions, whereas the distribution of certain peoples comes along with the change in the geography [6]. Third, it has been shown that a high rate of transformation in the ethnic structure can lead to an increase in inter-ethnic tensions in certain regions. All these factors above, revealing the comprehensive nature of the current ethnic processes, account for the respective scientific interest.
Ключевые слова: этнический состав населения, русские, регионы России.
Key words: ethnic composition of the population, Russian, regions of Russia.
Soviet and then Russian scientists have been exploring various aspects and issues associated with ethnic processes in Russia. Ethnic aspects of the population structure development have been in the focus of research projects carried out by УМ. Kabuzan, N.G. Volkova, V.S. Belozerov, O.I. Wendina, while the study of ethnic migrations have been within the scope of interest of Zh.A. Zayonch-kovskaya, P.M. Polyan, S.V. Ryazantsev, N.V. Mkrtchyan, etc. [7].
1 The study was performed within the grant of President of Russian Federation (NSH-9300.2016.6 "Foreign migrants in Russia: strategies and practices of integration and adaptation in a regional community")
2 RFBR 16-06-00179 "Development and approbation of system of geoinformation monitoring of ethno-demographic processes (on the example of regions of the North Caucasus)"
To understand the issues of interethnic interaction, it is important to refer to the studies by ethnologists and sociologists published in the works by V.A. Avk-sentiev, Yu.V. Arutyunyan, S.A. Arutyunov, L.N. Gumilev, L.M. Drobizheva, P.I. Kushner, V.A. Tishkov, A.A. Tsutsiev, etc.
From the stance of studying the ethnic structure of the Russian population at its present stage, it is important to investigate the regional features of the ethnic structure development. Important is to note that this process should be taken both for Russia as a whole as well as in view of the specific features of the ethnic structure of the urban and rural population.
Materials and methods
The data employed in the study was based on the All-Union (1959-1989) and the All-Russian (2002, 2010) national censuses [9]. To identify the regional features of the dynamics in the ethnic structure and classifying the Russian regions subject to the ethnic structure development (urban and rural population) the basic criterion was the change in the ratio of various ethnic groups, namely ethnic Russians as the largest group.
Results and discussion
Ethnic structure of the Russian population. The Russian Federation is home to more than 180 peoples the largest group being ethnic Russians. The 2010 census revealed that the group in question accounts for 111 mln people of Russia's entire population, which stands for 77.7%. Classification of the ethnic groups has shown that ethnic Russians are the only group with a count of over 100 mln, followed by 6 other ethnic groups exceeding 1 mln people each - Tatars, Ukrainians, Bashkirs, Chuvashi, Chechens, and Armenians. All these groups, apart from Armenians, account for over 1.0% of the entire population. The total share of these peoples accounts for 9.0% of Russia's entire population. There are 11 peoples with populations of 500,000 - 1,000,000 accounting for 4.7% (2010). The ethnic groups with populations varying in between 100,000 - 500,000 are 23 (3.7%). Other ethnic groups number below 100.000 accounting for 4.9% of the whole of Russia [8].
Speaking of dynamics in the ethnic structure of Russia's population we would like to note that late XX - early XXI Centuries witnessed no dramatic change in the share of the major ethnic groups; however there were certain changes some of which stand proof to significant trends.
A common trend has been a decrease in the share of ethnic Russians along with an increase in the numbers of other groups. Within the period of 1959 through 2010, the share of ethnic Russians went down by 5.6% (83.3% in 1959 to 77.7% in 2010) (Fig. 1). The decrease of ethnic Russians is accompanied with a decrease in the share of Ukrainians, Byelorussians, Jews, Germans, etc. The ethnic groups in question have been on a decrease through the post-Soviet time. During that, there has been an increase in the share of the peoples coming from the North Caucasus (ethnic-
ETHNIC DISTRIBUTION OF THE RUSSIFN POPULATION, %
Fig. 1. Ethnic distribution of the Russian population, 1959-2010, %.
ities populating Dagestan, Chechens, etc.), Transcaucasia (Armenians, Azerbaijanis) as well as among the major groups of Middle Asia (first of all, Tajiks and Uzbeks) [4].
These processes keep changing the ethnic structure of Russia's population. Note to be made that until 1989 the changes in the ethnic structure of the country's population could be described as "smooth, while afterwards the pace of change in the ethnic structure has increased significantly.
When scrutinizing the ethnic structure taking into account their urban or rural belonging, note to be made that the share of
ethnic Russians in urban areas exceeds that of the rural areas (as of 2010 - urban -81.0%; rural - 68.5%). At the same time the share of ethnic Russians in the whole of the total urban population from 1959 to 2010 went 6.2% down, while a similar decrease in the rural population was 10.8%! This demonstrates more intensive transformation of the ethnic distribution among rural population, which is largely due to the fact that most aboriginal peoples inhabiting the Northern Russia, Siberia, Far East, the North Caucasus, and the Volga region still mostly belong to rural groups that have not overcome the urbanization threshold (the share of urban population below 50%). Urbanization process is especially prominent among ethnic Russians, Ukrainians, Byelorussians, Jews, Armenians and others, which has had an effect on their presence in the structure of the urban population for several decades [2].
The transformation of Russia's ethnic structure reveals significant regional specifics. However, given all the individual scenarios for the regions of Russia there are certain features and trends common for whole groups of regions [3]. This served the basis for classifying the regions subject to their ethnic structure development.
Classification of Russia's regions depending on their ethnic structure formation. In the later XX - early XXI Centuries the changes in the regional ethnic structure were due to the ethnic specifics of the population reproduction and the migration movements; the socio-economic context; the ethnic and political factors, etc. Certain regions of Russia appear to have general trends in the changes affecting the ethnic structure while other areas demonstrate region-specific features, which offers a basis to classify Russia's regions. Within the period of 1959-2010, the share of ethnic Russians in the population of the country went 5.6% down (83.3% to 77.7%). We accepted the difference of 5.6% in the share of ethnic Russians as an average value while deviations from the value in regions would allow us making conclusions regarding the regional specifics in the ethnic dynamics. At the same time we also into view the features pertaining to the change in the share of other ethnic groups. Therefore, the values typical of Russia at large would be average ones when working with regional specifics3.
— regions with a relatively stable ethnic structure in the population, they are 62, can be broken into four subtypes: 1) Subtype I - the share of ethnic Russians went up by 0 to 5.6%; 2) Subtype II - the share of ethnic Russians went down by 0.1% to 5.6%; 3) Subtype III - the share of ethnic Russians went up by more than 5.6%; 4) Subtype IV - the share of ethnic Russians went down by more than 5.6%. This type can be described with a relatively stable ethnic stricture of the population. In 2010 the regions belonging to this type concentrated 90.1% of the ethnic Russians. Geographically they are located most-
This principle was employed further to analyze the ethnic structure in urban and rural areas of Russia
ly in the European part of Russia as well as include areas that were actively developed by Russians within XVIII-XX Centuries (South European part of Russia, Siberia and Far East areas). Logically, the Subtype of the regions where the share of ethnic Russians went more than 5.6% should belong to areas with a stable ethnic structure because due to the increasing share of ethnic Russians the areas get more and more mono-ethnic and by the end of the period in question these regions, basically all of them, turn into areas traditionally inhabited by ethnic Russians. This is due to the fact that the regions within this Subgroup witnessed an intensive decrease in the share of other peoples. Ethnic Russians had an increase in their share at the Jewish Autonomous District, for instance, through an intensive decrease in the share of Jews, while in the Kaliningrad Area a similar increase was due to a general decrease in the number of Byelorussians, Ukrainians and Lithuanians. This picture offers a striking background against the regions, which belong to the Subtype where the share of ethnic Russians went down by more than 5.6%. There are eleven of such regions concentrated in the Central part of the European Russia including St. Petersburg. Apart from ethnic Russians, no other ethnicity has any significant share in the areas mentioned above.
— regions with dynamically changing ethnic structure (14 all in all), can be divided into two subtypes: 1) Subtype I - mild de-
Russification - a 5.6%-20.0% decrease in the share of ethnic Russians within the indicate period of time; 2) Subtype II - intensive de-Russification - the decrease in the share of ethnic Russians within 1959-2010 was over 20.0%. This type can be described with a decreasing share of ethnic Russians in the urban population of the Russian regions against an increasing share of other ethnicities. All the regions of this type are ethnic units, which can be divided into four areas. One includes the Republics of the North Caucasus and the Republic of Kalmykia, which belong to the type of mild de-Russification. The exception is the Chechen Republic as well as the Republic of Kalmykia and Ingushetia, which belong to the regions with intensive de-Russification. As for the Volga region, only the Republic of Bashkortostan there is part of areas with mild de-Russification. A third area is the southern part of East Siberia and that includes three regions, where Altai and the Republic of Buryatia are part of the Subgroup with mild de-Russification, while Tuva is a region with intensive de-Russification. A fourth area is in the eastern part of the country and includes the Republic of Yakutia (Sakha) and the Chukotka Autonomous Region that belong to the regions with mild de-Russification. In 2010 the regions of this type concentrated 3.2% of the ethnic Russian population.
— regions revealing intensive poly-ethnization. There are 6 of such regions and they embrace 2 Subtypes: 1) Subtype I shows
an increase in the number of the ethnic Russians as well as a growth in the number of other peoples while the share of ethnic Russians in the population structure is
Type I - regions with a relatively stable ethnic structure in the population ■
7 28
11
Subtype I — the share of ethnic Russians went up by 0 to 5,6% Subtype II — the share of ethnic Russians went down by 0,1 to 5,6% Subtype III — the share of ethnic Russians went up by more than 5,6% Subtype IV — the share of ethnic Russians went down by more than 5,6%
* number of regions
Type II - regions with dynamically ethnic structure
H"| De-Russification - the regions of Subtype I reveal a decrease in the share of ethnic -1 Russians by 5,6% to 20,0 %
OThe regions of Subtype II reveal intensive de-Russification and the decrease in the share of ethnic Russian within the period was over 20,0%
Active increase in the share of the population structure revealed by the titular ethnic group
Type III - regions revealing intensive poly-ethnization of the population
II Subtype I shows an increase in the share of the ethnic Russians'as well as a growth in the share of other peoples while the share of ethnic Russians in the urban population is going down rapidly
B Subtype II features a decrease in the number of ethnic Russians and their in the ethnic structure due to a growth in other ethnic groups
Fig. 2.
Classification of the regions of Russia based on the ethnic structure features.
going down rapidly; 2) Subtype II features a decrease in the number of ethnic Russians and their share in the ethnic structure due to a growth in other ethnic groups. Subtype I are the regions revealing active industrial progress at this current stage - the Tyumen region, the Khanty-Mansiisk Autonomous District, the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District as well as the Stavropol region. Subtype II has 2 regions - the Ulianovsk and the Astrakhan areas. As of 2010, the regions of this type stood for a 6.7% concentration of the ethnic Russians.
Classification of Russia's regions depending on their urban ethnic structure development. From 1959 till 2010, the share of the ethnic Russians in the urban population of Russia went down by 6.2%, (87.2% to 81.0%). The difference at 6.2% in the changing share of the urban ethnic Russians was taken as an indicator of stability.
— regions with a relatively stable ethnic structure in the urban population - they are 57 - can be divided into four Subtypes:
1) Subtype I - the share of ethnic Russians went up by 0 to 6.2%; 2) Subtype II - the share of ethnic Russians went down by 0.1% to 6.2%; 3) Subtype III - the share of ethnic Russians went up by more than 6.2%; 4) Subtype IV - the share of ethnic Russians went down by more than 6.2%. This type reveals a relatively stable composition of the structure in the urban population. In 2010 these regions concentrated 91.7% of the urban ethnic Russians. Geographically, this is the central part of the European Russia as well as the regions that were actively developed by ethnic Russians in the XVIII-XX Centuries (South of the European Russia, the regions of Siberia and Far East). There is also a Subtype of regions where the share of ethnic Russians went more than 6.2% down. These regions are five being located in the Central part of Russia. In these regions, no other ethnic group stands for any prominent share in the population. During that, however, the index of the share of other peoples (with a balance of below 1.0% each) taken together exceeded 10.0% in all the regions.
— regions with dynamically changing ethnic structure in the urban population, of them all in all, are divided into 2 Subtypes:
1) Subtype I - mild de-Russification (mono-ethnization), where the decrease in the share of ethnic Russians was 6.2%-20.0%; 2) Subtype II - intensive de-Russification and the decrease in the share of ethnic Russia within the period (1959-2010) was over 20.0%. This type of regions features a decreasing share of ethnic Russians in the urban population as well as an increase among other ethnic groups. All these regions are ethnic units. It is important to note that reliable statistic data concerning certain regions of this type is available from the year 1970 on, so the calculation embraced the period of 1970-2010. The regions that are part of this type could be conditionally divided into four areas. One embraces the republics of the North Caucasus and the Republic of Kalmykia that belong to the subgroup of intensive de-Russification. Exception here is the Republic of Adygea that reveals mild de-Russification. Another area includes the ethnic units at the Volga region and Ural and is mostly of mild de-Russification (Mordovia, Mari El, Tatarstan, Bashkortostan) except the Chuvash Republic, which is part of Subgroup II. A third area is located in the southern part of East Siberia and includes three regions where Altai and Buryatia reveal mild de-Russification unlike Tuva, which shows de-Russification of intensive type. A fourth area is in the north of East Siberia including the Magadan Area and Yakutia, which are rated
among the regions of mild de-Russification. In 2010 the regions of this type concentrated 4.9% of the urban ethnic Russian population.
— regions revealing intensive poly-ethnization. These are 6 and they are divided into 2 Subtypes: 1) Subtype I shows an increase in the share of ethnic Russians as well as a growth in the share of other peoples while the share of ethnic Russians in the urban population is going down rapidly; 2) Subtype II features a decrease in the number of ethnic Russians and their share in the ethnic structure due to a growth in other ethnic groups. The regions of Subtype I, if taken geographically, strike a North-to-South stretching zone, and include regions that can boast of active industrial development currently - the Tyumen region, the Khanty-Mansiisk Autonomous District, the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District. Subtype II embraces 2 regions - the Ulianovsk and the Astrakhan areas. As of 2010, the regions of this type concentrated 3.5% of the urban ethnic Russians.
Classification of the regions of Russia subject to their rural ethnic structure. The dynamics of the rural ethnic structure shows certain specifics. First, there is a higher rate of decrease in the ethnic Russian population compared to urban areas; second, many ethnic groups that have not overcome the urbanization threshold maintain a high reproduction rate and feature low migration mobility, which has its impact on the ethnic structure dynamics in areas that such ethnicities inhabit in a close-together fashion.
Within the period of 1959-2010, the share of ethnic Russians in the rural population of Russia went down by 10.8% (79.3% to 68.5%). We took the difference of 10.8% in the rural population structure change as a stable index.
— regions with a relatively stable ethnic structure in the rural population, of which there are 66, include four Subtypes: 1) Subtype I - the share of ethnic Russians went up by 0% to 10.8%; 2) Subtype II - the share of ethnic Russians went down by 0.1% to 10.8%; 3) Subtype III - the share of ethnic Russians went up by more than 10.8%; 4) Subtype IV - the share of ethnic Russians went down by more than 10.8%. This type features a relatively stable ethnic structure in the rural population. In 2010 such regions represented a concentration of 90.5% rural ethnic Russians. These regions are located all over the country. The Subgroup where the share of ethnic Russians went up more than 10.8% includes two areas in the Far East - the Primorsky and the Khabarovsky regions. Five regions make up a Subgroup where the share of ethnic Russians in the rural population went down by more than 10.8%. These are the Republic of Karelia, the Nenets Autonomous District, the Murmansk and Chita Regions. Apart from ethnic Russians, no other of the ethnic groups has a significant share in these regions.
Type i - regions with a relatively stable ethnic structure in the urban population
18* Subtype I - the share of ethnic Russians went up by 0 to 6.2 %;
5 | Subtype II - the share of ethnic Russians went down by 0.1 % to 6.2 %;
31 |] Subtype III - the share of ethnic Russians went up by more than 6.2 %;
6 Subtype IV - the share of ethnic Russians went down by more than 6.2 %.
Type ii - regions with dynamically changing ethnic structure in the urban population
1Q I Subtype I - mild de-Russification (mono-ethnization), where the decrease in the share of -1 ethnic Russians was 6.2 % - 20.0 %;
D Subtype II - intensive de-Russification and the decrease in the share of ethnic Russia within the period (1959-2010) was over 20.0 %.
Type iii - regions revealing intensive poly-ethnization of the urban population
■ I Subtype I shows an increase in the share of ethnic Russians as well as a growth in the share of other peoples while the share of ethnic Russians in the urban population is going down rapidly;
H Subtype II features a decrease in the number of ethnic Russians and their share in the ethnic structure due to a growth in other ethnic groups.
Fig. 3. Classification of the regions of Russia based on the ethnic
structure of the urban population.
— regions with a dynamically changing ethnic structure in the rural population, 11 of them in total, which feature two Subtypes: 1) Subtype I - mild de-Russification - a decrease in the share of ethnic Russians by 10.8% to 20.0%; 2) Subtype II reveals intensive de-Russification and the decrease in the share of ethnic Russia within 1959-2010 was over 20.0%. This type reveals a reducing share of ethnic Russians in the ethnic structure of the rural population along with an increase in the share of other ethnicities. All these regions are ethnic units. An important note to make is that stable reliable statistics is available from the year 1970 on so our calculation embraced the period of 1970-2010. The regions that are part of this type can be conditionally divided into four areas.
Type I - regions with a relatively stable ethnic structure in the rural population
20* [ Subtype I - the share of ethnic Russians went up by 0 % to 10.8 %;
2 | Subtype II - the share of ethnic Russians went down by 0.1 % to 10.8%;
40 Subtype III - the share of ethnic Russians went up by more than 10.8 %;
4 Subtype IV-the share of ethnic Russians went down by more than 10.8 %.
Type II - regions with a dynamically changing ethnic structure in the rural population
3 I Subtype I - mild de-Russification - a decrease in the share of ethnic Russians by 10.8 % -1 to 20.0%;
Subtype II reveals intensive de-Russification and the decrease in the share of ethnic Russia I within 1959-2010 was over 20.0 %.
Type III - regions revealing intensive poly-ethnization of the rural population
BMI Subtype III features a decrease in the number of ethnic Russians and their share in the ethnic structure due to a growth in other ethnic groups.
Fig. 4. Classification of the regions of Russia based on the ethnic
structure of the rural population.
One of the areas includes the Republics of the North Caucasus and the Republic of Kalmykia. The regions of mild de-Russification include Karachai-Circassian Republic. The category of regions demonstrating intensive de-Russification includes the Republic of Adygea, Ingushetia, and the Chechen Republic. Another area includes the ethnic units of the Volga region and Ural, which fall mostly in the Subgroup of mild de-Russification (Mordovia, Mari El, Tatarstan, Bashkortostan), whereas the Chuvash Republic belongs to Dsubgroup II. A third ar-
ea is in the south of East Siberia embracing three regions where Altai and the Republic of Buryatia belong to the Subgroup with mild de-Russification, while Tuva shows intensive de-Russification. A fourth area is in the north of East Siberia and includes the Magadan Area and Yakutia rating among the regions of mild de-Russification. In 2010 the regions of this type accounted for 3.4% of the rural ethnic Russian population.
— regions revealing intensive poly-ethnization of the rural population are represented with one Subtype alone and feature a decrease in the number of ethnic Russians and their share in the ethnic structure due to a growth in other ethnic groups. In 2010 these regions presented a concentration of 6.1% of the rural ethnic Russians. These are three regions - the Stavropol Region, the Astrakhan and the Volgograd areas.
Conclusions. An analysis of the regional features of the ethnic structure in the population of Russia has revealed that whole groups of regions share common features. The most important point about carrying out this classification is the identifying the regions where internal ethno-regional processes are most pronounced and deviate from the average indices for the country. The regions with an actively changing ethnic structure of the population and the ones of intense poly-ethnitization require closer attention, since an active change in the ethnic structure may act as a conflict factor.
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