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"Vneshnepoliticjeskiye interesy Rossii: istoriya i sovremennost," Samara, 2014, pp. 99-107.
E. Kasayev,
expert
QATAR - AN ACTIVE SPONSOR
OF THE "ARAB SPRING". PRECONDITIONS,
CONSEQUENCES AND THE RUSSIAN FACTOR
Based on reports of the Russian, Arabic and Western mass media, Qatar has sponsored programs to educate and train leaders of interactive and Internet bloggers in organizational technique for various meetings, protest movements, and removal of protesters from the streets through social networks.
According to mass media reports, the Emirates' authorities have provided financial, technological and strategic assistance for the rebellious people in Egypt, Libya and Syria, and also given ideological
support with the help of biased reports about events in these countries through the Al-Jazeera channel, financed by Qatar, and other mass media.
Doha has lobbied the rebels interests in regional and international organizations, trying to "push" the acceptance of one or another document, and supporting the change of the ruling regime in the three above-mentioned Arab countries.
Qatar has cooperated in a number of issues with neighboring countries - Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates that were also involved in the developments of the "Arab Spring".
The policy and practice of Qatar are explained by the following reasons.
First of all, the leaders of that country, small in area1 and population2, but with very great ambitions try to play the role of peacekeepers in different regional conflicts in the Arab region.
To be more precise, Qatar has acted as an intermediary in the process of the Darfur Settlement, in settling disagreements between Ali Abdullah Saleh and Housists' rebels, in solving the problem of Lebanon after Rafik Hariri's murder, and in resolving Iran's nuclear problem (in cooperation with Brazil, Syria and Turkey).
It should be noted that Doha proved unable to solve either one of the above-mentioned problems despite the big volume of financing.
Qatar's intention to take the leading place in regional policy has been demonstrated by the ambitions of its leaders, and backed up by the country's solid economic basis. It is a generally recognized fact that nowadays the Arab Emirates are a dynamically developed state drawing great interests of the leading western countries. Qatar's high rate of progress in various fields attracts the attention of experts and the world community. It has been showing a high level of the constantly growing
GDP for several years, being one of the world leaders of the per capita GDP.
In 1999-2011 Qatar's GDP showed a stable upward trend at the purchasing power parity, having increased from $12,3 billion up to $184,3 billion3. This was a real confirmation of a certain margin of safety in the country's economy. During the same period the per capita GDP in the country increased from $17 thousand up to $104,3 thousand, gaining a maximum ($179 thousand) in 20104. The recession of 2011 was partly due to the extremely unstable situation in the region that was shown by the volume of Qatar's foreign trade.
However, a steadily growing GDP, as well as the economy as a whole, have been projected for the future, but in lower rates. If the GDP grew up to the record 18.7% in 20115, then the growth will remain stable at the 5 to 7% level in the next few years. At the same time, inflation has dropped significantly - from 6.7% in 2007-20106 up to 1.9% in late 20117.
So, during the past ten years the Qatar economy has been transformed into one of the most dynamic in the world. Sovereign credit rating of the Arab Emirates steadily holding the "A+" level since 2004, rose up to the "AA" level in 2010, according to Standard & Poor's agency. According to the agency's experts, this shows the strengthening of the financial balance of the country due to prospects for economic growth, connected with the implementation of new large projects in the field of natural gas liquefaction in 2010-20128.
Oil and gas sector still remains the cornerstone of the economy9. In recent years, Qatar has invested tens of millions of dollars in projects related to the infrastructure development, and the growing revenues from hydrocarbon exports contribute to these investments. Priority is given to the manufacture of vehicles, housing construction, medicine and sports. This is largely due to the fact that the Arab Emirates have
received the status of the host country of the world football championship in 2022 (for the first time a sporting event of such level will take place in the Middle East).
Today, the economic infrastructure of Qatar is rated as one of the best in the world. It looks impressive, as the country has relatively recently started economic reforms and undertaken practical steps in the liberalization of business environment.
A policy to stimulate direct foreign investments has put the state on the list of the leaders of investment deals. More than 200 investment projects were initiated in the country over the period between 2003 and 2011, and the total amount of foreign investments exceeded $135 billion.
The spectacular "economic breakthrough" of Qatar has been noted by various media, which described the socio-economic achievements of the Arab Emirates in many details.
Qatar is a major regional and international discussion platform where politicians, diplomats and analysts express different views on vital issues of global importance. International conferences are held in the country almost every week: dialogues on religions, discussions on coexistence of civilizations, the world's energy problems, etc.10
Doha has become the political capital of the Arab world, and Qatar's diplomacy today is the driving force of Arab politics, and such balance of power will probably remain in the future11.
However, the Arab Emirates' leadership is aware that it is hard to compete with large and "old" states, especially such as Egypt, Libya and Syria, with whose heads the Qatar leaders failed to find common ground.
"Conquer" Syria so that Iran will fear
Qatar's campaign against Syria has largely been caused not only by the geopolitical factor, but also by the gas one.
Qatar intended to import Iranian natural gas in 2011, as the Arab Emirates were concerned about increasing domestic demand due to the moratorium on the expansion of production at the largest "North" deposit until 2014.
As a result, the production of natural gas could not be increased to meet the needs of the local market, the growth due to the infrastructure projects within the framework of the national development plan for 2011-201612 and the preparation for the 2022 Football World Cup.
The situation is further complicated by long-term contracts for the supply of liquefied natural gas to the U.S.A., UK, India, as well as other European and Asian countries.
Qatar and Iran would refuse to share "as brothers the world's largest gas condensate deposit located in the territory of both countries. Qatar's part of the site is called "North" and Iran's - "South Pars".
Taking into account the fact that energy demand will increase constantly as a result of the continuous growth of the economy of the country, Doha will seek to make "South Pars" support the U.S. and Europe in their policy of sanctions against Iran.
Several packages of the UN Security Council sanctions have been applied against Iran. In addition, certain companies of the United States and some European countries have carried on limited activity on the Iranian market. Economic pressure of the West prevents Iran to gain a foothold in the European sector of gas, but Tehran has been active in the Asian direction.
China and India are in a special position in the Asian region. Qatar is actively cooperating with China, and the import of its fuel is
growing rapidly. In the coming years the volume of Qatar's liquefied natural gas will increase significantly in comparison with 2010.
More than a quarter of liquefied natural gas consumed in the European Union, is delivered from Qatar13. The construction of a LNG terminal is proceeding in Poland14. Negotiations are going on for deliveries of Qatar's liquefied natural gas to the Baltic States, Belarus and Ukraine.
Qatar seeks to balance its foreign policy by developing and maintaining relationships with many European and Asian centers of power.
Qatar solves the most relevant problems of regional security by attracting foreign companies to its own economy and shifting these problems onto its political and economic partners.
However, Qatar, agrees with Muslim countries on the major global issues concerning the Middle East.
Qatar tries to maintain balanced relations with the Gulf monarchies within the framework of the League of Arab States and the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf. Common defense and economic initiatives within the framework of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Persian Gulf have been initiated and one of them provides for the creation of a monetary union. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar have come close to realization of this idea. In June 2009, in Riyadh, they signed an agreement on the introduction of the single currency of the member-states, which can oust the dollar and the euro in the gold and currency reserves of other countries in the region.
Qatar, along with the neighboring Arab countries, has constantly insisted on the necessity for democratization and liberalization of social and political life in the major countries of the Middle East and the North Africa. Doha often accuses of corruption the leadership of Egypt, Libya and Syria.
Qatar has lobbied the interests of rebellious countries in the international arena (UN, Arab League), and tried to push the adoption of documents supporting military actions for regime change in certain Arab countries with the support of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
In addition to diplomacy there is the "Al Jazeera" TV channel, which expresses the political will of the Arab Emirates and is one of the effective tools for managing the social and political situation, despite statements to the opposite.
A stable economic situation allows Qatar to carry on its foreign policy quite effectively, and its national security, including all economic and energy aspects, are the country's main goal and "reference point". In 2012, Qatar was ranked 12th in the world (1st among the countries of the Middle East and North Africa) in the ranking of the "Global Peace Index", having moved up by 18 points since 200715.
Despite the extremely worrying situation in the Middle East, the internal political situation in Qatar is stable enough. There are no visible manifestations of opposition sentiments, including among migrant workers, who make up 80 percent of the population, as well as disagreements among members of the ruling Al Thani family.
The Qatar authorities have determined the order of reforms in the political system as a major internal problem, but the implementation of these changes will take some time, since social life follows the rules of Islam.
However, it is far from the complete liberalization of social and political life in the Western sense. Political parties and political organizations are still banned in the country, and the media censorship remains, including the "Al Jazeera" TV channel.
So, the internal political positions of Qatar's leadership are stable, although two attempts of conspiracies against the Emir have taken place in recent years.
The country is the world's leader in per capita incomes. The main advantage of the head of state is the support of people whose average living standards are much higher than those in many other countries. The change of the political regime is hardly possible in the near future, as there are no anti-government protests there.
However, in the long run there can be the change of power because there are many powerful local clans with sufficient financial resources to organize an anti-government campaign, and some of them might well like to acquire the status of the "ruling family."
Russia has consistently opposed the aspirations of Qatar to change "unwanted regimes"16 in some countries of the region, and, despite criticism from the Arab Emirates, advocated a settlement of the situation in the Middle East by peaceful means from the very beginning of the "Arab Spring."
The Qatar leadership believes that Russia has lost its status of the center of power, but still hopes to get it back, and the Kremlin actively cooperates with the ruling regimes in Arab countries, especially in the military field17.
Russia's policy has caused numerous anti-Russian protests, as well as the boycott of Russian products in Jordan, as well as the rejection of Russian investment projects in Qatar. It was expected that the volume of Qatar investments in the Russian economy could be about $10-12 billion, but Doha has refused to participate in these projects.
Arab countries' calls to stop trade partnership with Moscow voiced in the media, social networks and online forums hit Russia in addition to the economic blockade by Qatar.
There were calls to expel all Russian staff from the region and to hold protest rallies and demonstrations in front of the Russian
diplomatic missions accredited not only in the Arab and other Muslim countries, but also in Europe, Asia, and North and South America.
Our analysis leads to several conclusions: Qatar's active participation in the process of changing the ruling regimes in some Arab countries is a result of its ambitions to become a regional leader.
The role and place of Russia in the Middle East is checked by the strength of the authorities and media of Qatar. They try to discredit Moscow in the eyes of the Arab public in every way, because they are displeased with the Kremlin reluctance to support the Qatar position regarding Syria.
References
http://ru.worldstat.info/AsiaQatar/Land CIA World Factbook 2013.
http :/www. indexmundi. com/g/g. aspx? c=qa&v=6 5 http:/www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=qa&v=67 CIA World Factbook 2012
O'Sullivan A., Rey M-E, Mendez J.G. Opportunities and Challenges in the MENA Region. Arab World Competitiveness Report 2011-2012. p.8 CIA World Factbook 2012 1245218984084
Kasayev EO Gaz v Katare vsemu golova [Gas in Qatar is the head of everything ] // Neft Rossii. 2012. No 4. pp. 98-101. http.//www.iimes.ru/rus/stat/2012/19-01-12a.htm
744162/Qatar_ou_le_nouveau_centre_de_gravite_de_la_diplomatie_arabe.html http://www.iimes.ru/?p=14827
Liquefied natural Gas Market in Europe. RREEF Research, February 2011. http://www.rreef.com/content/_media/Reaserch_Liquified_Natural_Gas_Market_ in_Europe_Februar_2011.pdf
Emir's Poland visit will cement ties: Envoy // The Prninsula, 14.10.2011. http ://www. guardian. co.uk/news/datablog/2012/jun/12/global-peace-index-2012 The Peninsula, 19.10.2011. Ibid.
"Blizhniy Vostok i Sovremennost", Moscow, 2014, No 48, pp. 37-49.
