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public opinion: a sense of independence
Andrei Vardomatski Summary
The Belarusian Analytical Workshop presents a detailed analysis of the celebration of the Freedom Day (March 25, 2018), the main event of the year in terms of the national identity. It also shows the dynamics of geopolitical orientations and the assessment of the personal economic situation by Belarusians in 2018. In the period from April 24 to May 13, 2018, the Belarusian Analytical Workshop (Warsaw) conducted another nationwide representative sociological survey. The sample size is 1,071 respondents. The thematic focus of the study was the celebration of the 100th anniversary of the Belarusian People's Republic (BPR). The event received an unprecedentedly strong public response. For the first time, the authorities officially authorized some street actions.
Independence Day: March 25 vs July 3
We asked the participants in our nationwide survey the questions that were raised most often regarding the matter under discussion:
• What significant event in the history of Belarus is considered the most significant in relation to this matter?
• What event is primarily associated in the mass consciousness with the independence of Belarus?
This shows that Belarusians primarily associate July 3, the day of the liberation of Minsk from the Nazi invaders in 1944, with the Independence Day (Table 1). The second date is the proclamation of the Belarusian People's Republic, but it is hugely less popular. This means that the views of the general public coincide with the views of the government on this subject.
A small number of Belarusians (as few as every fifth) consider this date important (Table 2). Assessment of this number is a matter of interpretation. And this assessment is ambivalent. On the one hand, this number is small. On the other hand, after a century of blackout, it is large. And the "blackout" is rather an understatement. In academic terms, most often, negative judgments were persistently implanted in people's minds. It
should also be understood that the energy of this smaller social group is incomparably greater than the energy of the passive majority.
Table 1. In your opinion, what date is most suitable for the celebration of the Independence Day in the Republic of Belarus?
%
July 3 (the day of the liberation of Minsk from the Nazi invaders in 1944) 52.6
March 25 (Freedom Day, the anniversary of the BPR) 10.4
The day of the establishment of the Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic 8.1
September 19 (the day of renaming of the BSSR to the Republic of Belarus) 7.3
A date of other event 3.9
Undecided 15.9
Declined to answer 1.8
Table 2. Some Belarusians celebrate March 25 (the Freedom Day), the anniversary of the proclamation of the Belarusian People's Republic. Some Belarusians consider this date important to the country, and some do not. How do you feel about this date?
%
This is an important date in the history of our country, which should be celebrated 18.5
This is an anniversary of a disputable event, which should not be celebrated 17.5
I know too little about that to have a judgment 61.1
Declined to answer 2.8
Table 3. Should the day of the proclamation of the Belarusian People's Republic (March 25) be a public holiday, and the celebration be organized by the state?
%
Yes 21.1
No 32.8
No opinion on this point 44.3
Declined to answer 1.8
Again, only every fifth Belarusian believes that the day of the proclamation of the Belarusian People's Republic should be
a public holiday and its celebration should be organized by the state every year (Table 3). However, in our opinion, the main point is how many respondents were undecided (44.3%) and declined to comment (1.8%): 46.1% in total. This is where the media can produce a cultural impact. This territory is enormous, and, if properly cultivated by the media, this number can transform into the traditional two-thirds (21.1 + 44.3 = 66.7%).
Celebration of the 100th anniversary of the BPR: sources of information about the events of March 25, 2018
Respondents were asked questions regarding the events that took place on March 25, 2018 in connection with the celebration of the 100th anniversary of the BPR.
The data in Table 4 confirm that 38% of those aware of the events constitute the traditional one-third of Belarusian society. They compose the socially progressive part that is better informed, politically knowledgeable and socially active. This one-third can be viewed with respect to a wide range of other sociological indicators.
The analysis of the hierarchy in Table 5 shows three important features of the media behavior in times of crisis.
(1) The personification of information consumption: interpersonal communication (from mouth to mouth) is comparable with the role of the media in terms of the information value, and even outstrips it (41.3% of respondents received information from friends and/or relatives). This is a global feature of media consumption in general, which works not only in times of crisis.
(2) The dominance of social media over traditional media, which is a feature of the crisis media behavior (37.4% of those who knew about the events received information from social media).
(3) The dominance of non-state media (to be more exact, their online versions) over state-controlled media; this feature is specifically Belarusian.
State television, radio and newspapers have surrendered their position in the hierarchy. Our hypothesis that non-state media are trusted more in critical situations, in particular in times of street events, which we stated earlier, is confirmed.
Table 4. Have you heard about the events that took place in Belarus on March 25, 2018 (the Freedom Day)?
%
Yes 38.0
No 61.3
Undecided 0.3
Declined to answer 0.4
Table 5. From what sources did you learn about these events?
%
Acquaintances, family 41.3
Social media, blogs 37.4
Websites of Belarusian non-state media 31.3
Belarusian state television 27.1
Websites of Belarusian state media 22.3
Belarusian state print media 9.8
Belarusian non-state state print media 6.2
Websites of Russian non-state media 7.1
Belarusian state radio 5.6
Russian state television 4.8
Belarusian non-state television 4.4
Belarusian non-state radio 4.0
Websites of Russian state media 3.3
Russian non-state print media 0.9
Russian state print media 0.5
Russian non-state television 0.7
Russian non-state radio 0.7
Russian state radio 0.5
Other sources 1.4
Undecided 0.0
Note. This percentage was calculated based on the number of those informed.
Geopolitical orientation: zero dynamics
The study shows a slight decrease in the proportion of those who prefer an alliance with Russia (from 63.9 to 60.4% during the year; less than 3.5%, which is almost a standard deviation), and a slight increase in the number of those who prefer a rapprochement with Europe (from 20.2 to 22.4%) (Diagram 1).
The essence of this dynamics (more like the absence of dynamics) is largely due to the collision of two mutually
exclusive processes in Belarus today. On the one hand, there is the organized and sanctioned process of "mild Belarusization". On the other hand, there is a powerful impact of Russian media and the dissemination of the Russian World ideology through various foundations, NGOs and think tanks. The collision of these two processes results in the underdeveloped mass consciousness in both pro-European and pro-Russian segments.
Diagram 1. In your opinion, in which union it would be better for the people of Belarus to live: in the European union or in a union with Russia?
70 j 63.9 62.5 617 63.4 60 4 60
30 j 20 2 22.4 24.8 20.4 22.4 20
10 "I 15.8 15.2 16-2 17.2
0
13.5
Jan. 2018 Apr. 2018 Jun.2018 Sept. 2018 Dec. 2018 In a union with Russia In the European Union Un decided/Declined to answer
As for relations with the Russian Federation, only 2.7% of the respondents want Belarus to become part of the Russian Federation (in other words, a legal merge) (Table 6).
In some measurements, this number rose to 5—6%. But, given the statistical 3-percent confidence interval for this sample size, we can conclude that these numbers are equal statistically. Therefore, we can also state the absence of dynamics in this point over the last few years.
Table 6. What would you like the Belarusian-Russian relationship to be?
%
It should be the same as with other countries with a controlled border, visas and customs 5.4
Belarus and Russia should be independent and friendly countries with open borders, without visas or customs 75.1
Belarus and Russia should unite into one union state 12.4
Belarus should become part of Russia as a constituent territory of the federation 2.7
Undecided 3.9
Declined to answer 0.4
Assessments of the personal economic situation
Based on the economic self-perception surveys, two main trends can be pointed out:
1) an increase in the number of those who answered "good" since the middle of the year;
2) a decrease in the number of those who answered "bad" both at the macro level (entire country) and at the micro level (households).
Diagram 2. How do you assess the last year's economic situation in your family?
60 SO 40 30 20 10
50.7
37.8
8.5
JJL
47.2
39.7
8.7
4.4
41.0
4.8
if-
50.0
40.8
4.9
C2_
54.3
37.0
3.8
4.0
ahb.18 anp.18 moH.18 ceirr. 18 wk.18
Good " Average Bad ^^^ Un decided/Declined to answer
This is about the psychological adaptation to the difficult economic situation, rather than the overall situation in the
market. The scale of perception is changing. Focus group studies show strong manifestations of various psychological adaptation mechanisms.
Conclusion
The attitude to March 25 as the Independence Day, i. e. the 100th anniversary of the Belarusian People's Republic is characterized by the following parameters: (1) low degree of awareness (only 18.5% of the respondents consider it an important date in the national history, which should be celebrated); (2) low level of personal appreciation; (3) appreciation of July 3 as the dominant preferred date for the Independence Day (52.6%). The information about the celebration of the Freedom Day mainly comes from friends, relatives, acquaintances and social media, rather than the traditional media.
Assessments of the economic situation did not noticeably change from the beginning of the year to April. A winter-spring aggravation did not happen. The events of March 2017 did not repeat.
The geopolitical orientation did not change either. The combination of Belarusization and the influence of Russian media have brought the situation to a standstill.
