CC BY
22UU4PnSLSbUUq-hSnhrdenKb
ЦЦГЬЪ ^Phq-nrSUL
¿CnS^ diuLipn^LinhndfiLiiujIi uidpfinbfi L[Lupfe, ipbipbuwq¡iipnLfajwb [ahIjhLuónL, r¡.ngbbip
4-U.3U.Lb U4U43UL
¿C^S^C dujíjpnfcíjnbndliíjLUjli Luiipfiribfi r¡.ngbbip, ipbipbuLUqllipnL[dJLub [dbljbLUÓnL
ЪЦРЬЧ inUrU^bSBUL
¿C^S^C tyfibLububhpfi uidpfinbfi iiiuiyfipujbifi
LflNJhLb Uhjhí3-UP8UL
SbLpbuLuq[iipnL[3jLub [&bL]blUÔnL
CC ilbSULiUL 'HILPS-Pb ЧЦЗПКЬГИ^ЗЦЪ ChlTLUhiLT-hPLbPG1
'ЛЬьрШ^шЬ UlLUpippfl L]LUjnLbnL[ajLub ¡ubr¡.[ipp ^wjwuipwb/l <£LubpLULLlbipnL[3jnLbnLlI шпшЬдЬшiff) LjiupbnpnLf&jnLb £" ui{iiugb[ 2020 ¡9. hbipn, bpp ¡^шпш^шрт^шЬ щшрьрр/ CL U. gruguibfop qbpLuqLubgb[ £" 60% 2bduij[ib griLguibfap: Umjb hnq.i[ui¿Fnid hbqfibiuLj-bbpp phbLupL/md bb uibipiuLiiub uiiupipgti L]LujnLbnL[ajLub luuiiuhnildiub hbwpwi(npnL-[ajmbbbpp «-nitf nLunLdbwufipb[nL[ IjLunujLlLupnLpjLub uiLupippfi diuLipnipbLpbuiuLiiub Luqr¡.bgnL[3jnLhhbpp, d2Lulib[nil Щшр1рр/£Ы1 gnLguibfofi dfebLuàujdlibip идЬЬшрЬЬр II [1рш^шЬшдЬЬ[т1 JujLipn$>fruLiLU[ 2nL¡bpfi bLjiuLpdiudp uppbu pbuipbp: ¿CbipLuqnipnLpjLub uipiynLbpbbpp griLjg bb 1рф[, np u¡Lupipj2p прп2ш^ (pbb uLuhduibunfiLulj) ршдшиш^шЬ Luqr¡.bgnL[3jnLtj nibji diuLipnipbLpbuiuLiiub i[pw: IffibbnLjb duidu/buiL/, ьрЬьрЬиш-
L/uib luó[i b ifinjvujpdbfiti 2п№рВ 1]шрпг[ bb LuuiLuL]LujnLbLugbbi щшрфрр' рпщ }Lpwim[
1 <лг|.1|ш0р щштршииш|Ь[ t СС ЧЧ-1ГиЪ Ч-Ч «Ч-|илш1|шЬ Li q.|immmbfub|iL|mL|mb q.npônLbbnL|ajujb pmqmj|nb ф^ЬшЬишфпрь^Ь bb|aml|umnLgi|uJÔj2|i щшИщшЪпи! b qmpq.mgnLJ» ôpmq.p|n «'ЛЬтш-1|шЬ фп(ишпги J|i2ngbbp|i bbpq.pmi[Jmb illngngnil 1лЬтЬиш1|шЬ qujpq.ujgrui[ ujiijUjhni|b|nL ИЬш-
pmi[npnL[ajnLbbbpp <ли|шитшЬ|п <mbpmujbmnL[ajnLbnLJ» [abJmj|n ф|пЪшЪиш1|пр11шЪ 2Р2швш1|-:
fipLuLjLuhLughb[ opbbuq.pnpbb bLufuLuipbuLlLuô LL/Lupip^fi 62qpipnuSp: Uju ujujji5ujbbbpnu5 hujp^LupjnL2bipujjfib ¡}Luriujf>uj[jUjbnL[ajnLb fywljnribhpli hujiJujp Lunujbg^ujjfib hpujdujjuj-Ljiub £" lyLupippfi pbnfi biluiqhgnLiJp h lyLupippfi iynpip$h[rmJ ri.pujiJujjlib qnpôfipbhpfi f}b-pfi piupâpujgnLJp, priLj[ Ijipiju iibqiib[ njiuL/bpp b LuiyLuhnilb[ IjLujnLbnLpjLub iyuJ2Lup ujLLiujquj 2nLjhpfi hujJujp:
C|iiftiuipuiiibp. huiplfuipjnL2bifiujjlib L/Lubnbbbp, il6iupriLbiuljnL[ajnLb, /ipLugL(b[finLfajnLb, ugbbiupujjlib i(bp[nLÔnL[djnLb, uppbu [dbuipbp
JEL: E47, 011
DOI: 10.52174/1829-0280_2021_2_32
"Libpui6iH|3jiHtj "Tlbinwliaili u|uipin£>p, r).pai uitihpuid^innLpjnLtip U nfiu-L|LujtinLjajnlIj□ qpbpb d^in br\b[ bti intiinbuuiqfiinuil|uiti uidbtiwwnuitigpuijfiti hfidliuifutir|.fiptibpfig: Uuil|uijti haipgp linp upnLpjruli t umaigtî[ 2020 |a-fig, bpp u|binuil|uiti u|wpln{эf^, u[tip2fib inwutiuidjuil|tibpfi aiâfi dflinnLdp LjinpnLlj aipai-qwgb[ t, puitifi np w2fuwphfi q.pb|ab pn[np bpL)ptibpQ r).fiJti[ bti u|binuil|uiti a|aipmpfi 2b2LnLuL|h D^Jn-LLUjtiliLuti1 Jbr[iibLnL COVID-19 haïJaiu[aipaiL|fi ungfiai[-intiinbuuil|uiti h bm Uuutiplj bp q-:
Uju wnni.dni[, puiguinnLpjnLti ^tp baili <wjuiuinuitifi <wtipwu|binnL|3jnLtip: « ^wnwi|wpnL|3jwli u|uipui£>p 2020 haiuaiu[ u|windwl|wb uinuii|b|wqnLjti duil|uipr|.uil|fitr l|aiqJtî[nu[ CbU 63.5%-p, fiul| u|binuil|uiti u|wpln{2p, 67.3%-p: U.pr|.jnLti£>nLif ^ainaiilaipnLpjaili a|aipmpb ainaigfili uitiquid qbpuiquitigbL t «rrlbinuil|uiti a|aipunpfi duiufiti» « opbti£>ni[ uwhduitiijwô 60%-fi uwhduitiuijfiti 2bdp, fili^p CC. haipliaipjriLgtiLnaijfili LjLutintitibpni| uinuigwgtinLd t u|wpin£>fi pb-np til[uuqbgbb[nl u|uihiuti2 :
Uju u|uijdiutitibpni.d u|binuil|uiti a|aipmpfi L| luj n lIj n ljbj Luti, aij[ L|bpix| aiuaiè1 l|ainaiu[aipnL|3jaili i|6uipnLliuil|nL|3juiti li fipuigi|b|jinL|3juiti u|uihu|uitiijuiti l|uipn-r\nL|3jaili haipgli ainaiu[ti[ uipr|.fiuil|uiti t r|.uintinLd: UnLjti hnr).u[aiôfi tiu|uiiniul|ti t paigaihaijLnti[ « ^luinuiilwpnLpjuiti a|aipmgfi Lj luj n lti n ljbj luIj wu|uihni|duiti hllalpalu[npnL|ЭJnLlllltípp, qtiuihuiinb|ni[ a|aipmpfi uiqr|.bgnL|3jnLtitibpp duil|pn-intiinbuuil|uiti u[fiâail|fi u[pai li fipuil|uitiuigtib|ni[ dfigtiuid'uidlibin ugbtiuipuijfiti u[tip[nLÔnL|3jnLli: ~ba|winwl|fi fipwl|wtiuigduiti haiJaip L|fipainu[ti[ bti nbqpbufinti LÎnr|.b[tjbp li a|aipmpfi L| luj n Lb n ljbj Luti i|bp|nLÔnL|3juitr Jfigaïqqaijfili l|fipainnLiî ru-tibgnr[ MAC DSA (Cni.l|uijfiti haiuailib[finL|3jnLli rutibgnrL bpl|ptibpfi u|uipinjDfi l|w-jnLtinLpjLuti qtiwhuiinduiti) haiJail|aipqp:
q-puiljuitinLpjuiti uiljtiuiplj rr)buiaiL|aili a|aipuipfi u[bpaipbpjai[ intiinbuui-qfiinuil|uiti 2P2UJtiuil|tibpnLd ainl|ai dninbgrudtibpp htiuipuii[np t r).aiuail|aipqb[ bpbp fudpfi' <<i[uiinuiinbuuil|uiti», «|wi|winbuwl|wli» U «fipuiinbuuil|uiti»: >-Lbp-gfililibpfiu libpl|wjwgnLgfi^libpfi huijuigptibpp uiaippbpu[nLJ bti u|binuil|uiti a|uipin£>fi plinLj|afi, u|uiin6uintibpfi li hbinLuitiptibpfi haipgbpnLii4:
; Sb'u IMF. World Economic Outlook, April 2021: Managing Divergent Recoveries.
https://www.lmf.org/en/Publlcatlons/WEO/lssues/2021/03/23/world-economlc-outlook-aprll-2021:
: Sb'u «<X pjnLgbmwjIib hiijJujL|Ujpq.|i Juju|nb» CC opbbp|n 21-prj. hnr|.L[uj6h 8.2 L|bmp, CC LmjnimjujpnLiajujb 2018 [ai[ujL|iijb|i oq.numnu|n 23-|n N 942-L npn2nLJ[i:
4 Sb'u Salsman R., The political economy of public debt: three centuries of theory and evidence. Edward Elgar Publishing, 2017, t"2 3-6:
ULjuu|biT u|binuil|uili u|uipin£>fi <<i(uiinuiinbuuil|uili>> JninbgJuili r|.u|pngfi libpl|uijuignLgfi^libpQE, plir|.huilini.p ainJaiJp, inlimbunLpjiuli Jbg ijinpp t^h^ mlibgnri u|binuil|uili huiini|ui&fi l|nr|Jliuil|figlibp till U haiJaiprnJ till, np ai6nr\ u|binuil|uili a|aipmpp huiliq.bglib|nL t u|binni.|3juili uutil[6uupnlIiluLjnLpjuiti II LnlimtiunLpjnLlinLJ paigaiuail|aili aij[ hbintiuiliplibpfi: «Laiu[aimtiuaiL|aili» JnmtigJaili r|.a|pngfi libpl|uijuignLgfi^libpQ6 u|lir|.ni.J till, np u|uil|uiunLpr|.uijfili u|binui-L|aili pjmgbli U u|binwl|uili a|aipunpp l|uipnri bli fu|aailiti[ lnlllntIunL|ЭjnLllQ, ainailig uiu|uiq.ui L|aiJ litipL|ai ubpnLtibp|n haiJaip u|uipin£>fi fipuil|uili pbn ainai2aiglib[nL: hul| «fipuiinbuuil|uili» JninbgJaili r|.u|pngfi libpl|uijuignLgfi^libpQ7 haiJaiprnJ bli, np a|wping|i u[bpaipbpjai[ r|.uiinnr|nL|3jnLlilibpQ a|bmp t l|winuip-i|blT hai2i|h ainlib[nu[ u[6aipJaili L|Lupnr\nL|3jnLtitibpQ, hbLnUalpalp, a|bmail|aili a|aipmpfi pbnp u|uipinuir|.fip ^t, np u[liaiuail|aip [h^h- uail|aijli, JfililinLjli daiJai-liail|, a|wping libpq.puii|b|nL hliaipaiu[npnL|3jnLlip uiliuuih Juiliuii|iuil| ^t:
'Tlbinuil|uili a|aipmpfi l|uijni.linL|3juili U u|iupin£>uijfili pwr|ui£>uil|uilinL|3juili u[bpaipbpjai[gair\aipaiL|ailinL|3jnLli J2wl|nr|libpfi 2P2UJlini.J q.bpfi2funr\ JnmbgnLJ-
5 tuiilhp <jmii (Hume D. (1752 [1987]), Of public credit, in E.F. Miller (ed.), Essays Moral, Political and Literary, Indianapolis, IN: Liberty Fund), Ui>uiil Uil|ip (Smith A. (1776 [1937]), Of public debts, Book V, Chapter III In An Inquiry Into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, New York: Modern Library), chuti Punn|uun Ubj (Say J.-B. (1803 [1821]), Of national debt, Chapter IX In Book II of A Treatise on Political Economy, 1st American edition, Philadelphia, PA: Claxton, Remsen and Haffelfinger), T-uiilhp r>|il|wnin (Rlcardo D. (1817 [1951]), in P. Sraffra (ed.), On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation. The Works and Correspondence of David Rlcardo, Vol. I, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.), <Huip[ Uuipgu (Marx K. (1867 [1887]), Genesis of the industrial capitalist, Vol. I, Part 8, Chapter XXXI In Das Capital, Moscow: Progress Publishers, t"2 533-40), Ljnii>il|iq >-Lnii U|iqtui (Mlses L. von (1949), Human Action: A Treatise on Economics, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press), Sbjilu Pjmgbtibti (Buchanan J.M. (1958 [1999]), Public Principles of Public Debt: A Defense and Restatement, Indianapolis, IN: Liberty Fund.), Dji^uipii •-Luiqtibp (Wagner R.E. (2012a), Deficits, Debt and Democracy: Wrestling With Tragedy on the Fiscal Commons, Cheltenham, UK and Northampton, MA, USA: Edward Elgar Publishing. Wagner R.E. (2012b), Democracy and), fd-niluiu T||il|tun|i (Plketty, T. (2014), The question of the public debt, Chapter 16 In Capital in the Twenty-First Century, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.) IL wj|p:
b finti Ubjtiuipi} -£bjtiu (Keynes J.M. (1936), The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, London: Macmlllan), U.[il|iti <uitiubti (Hansen A.H. (1959), The public debt reconsidered: a review article, Review of Economics and Statistics, 41(4), 370-78), Uppui Lbptibp (Lerner A.P. (1943), Functional finance and the federal debt, Social Research, 10(1), 38-51), ''lni Uuiiinib[unti (Samuelson P. (1948), Economics, An Introductory Analysis, New York: McGraw-Hill), ftnpbpin Puippn (Barro R.J. (1979), On the determination of the public debt, Journal of Political Economy, 87(5), 940-47. Barro R.J. (1980), Federal deficit policy), ilni iipmqiiuiii (Krugman P. (1988), Financing versus forgiving a debt overhang, Journal of Development Economics, 29(3), 253-68) II
wj|£:
7 Sbjilu Upjniuipp (Steuart J. (1767 [1966]), in A. Skinner (ed.), An Inquiry into the Principles of Political Economy, Edinburgh: Oliver & Boyd Ltd), ULibguuitiiip <uui|i[pnti (Hamilton A. (1790a), Report on the Public Credit, January, accessed August 29, 2016 at
https://www.schlllerinstltute.org/economy/2015/ hamilton- first_report_on_the_public_credlt.pdf.), <uipi|i Ljnig (Lutz H.L. (1945), Debt, taxation and functional finance, Chapter XIII In Guideposts for a Free Economy: A Series of Essays on Enterprise), ftnpbpin Uuitii^bi (Mundell R.A. (1960), The public debt, corporate Income taxes and the rate of interest, Journal of Political Economy, 68(6), 622-6), llppi-up Lw$bp (Victor A. Canto, Douglas H. Jolnes, and Arthur B. Laffer, Foundations of Supply-Side Economics - Theory and Evidence (New York: Academic Press, 1982) L wj|£>:
tibpti iui[b[[i Jnui till «fipuiuibutibpfi» uibuLul|bLnfiti, npuibri ainailigpaijfili t L|lu-naiu[aipnL|3jaili u[6aipnLliail|nL|3jaili u|Luhu|LutinLJp:
Cli r|.h wli p w a| bu, ll|luplnp|n l|LujnLlinL|3jluli hfiJpmJ « l[6 lu p n lIj lu l| n lpj n lIj » hLuul|LugnL|3jnLlili t:
Quui bi|pnLL|Lul|Luli l|btiLnpntiuil|Luti puitil|fi uujh JluIi JluIT ul| buiuj Lj ixltl U|LUpUl£>fl l|LUjnLlinL|3jnLlip l[6LUpnLtlLUL|nLf3JUjtl L fipLUgi|ti[finL|3JLull U|LUJ Juitltlbpfl JflUldwjLutlUll|JLU LUU|LuhnL|nLlRj t, npfl U|LUpUiqLUjnLj l|LUnLUL|LUpnL|3jnLtltl Ultl-[uLUljlLutj ULL|LUULUpl|nLj t LL|buiLul|Lutl U|LUpUl£>p:
lljUUlbr^ l|6LUpnLllLul|nL|3JLull U|LUjJuitip till|9LUr).pnLJ t L^hS^1 LUcHlOJLÎL)tjLTI hb-nuilil|LupnLd u|buiLul|Luti pjmgbfi uuih JluIi lu i|i lu l| JluIi LL|LUJ Juillfl LULL|Luhni|nLj, fillip l|Lupnr[ t Jtil|liLupLuliL[ti[ bpL|nl JnuibgJui Jp.
<nugbp|l dninbgnLd l|LUnWL|LUpnL|3JLutl LUU|LUqLU LUnLUgllLUjflll hLU2l|b-l|2hnlibpfi qnLLn libpl|lu Lupdbpp lu Jbtiuipfi^p u|bui£ t ôwôl|fi Lunl|lu
U|buiLul|Lutl LL|LUpLnpfl qnLLn llbpl|LU LUpdbpp:
T|ui2uipbbp|i ifnuibgiuif l|LunuiL|LupnL|3jLuti LL|LupLnLUL|npnL|3jnLtitibpfi qnLLn libpl|LU Lupdbpp ^LL|bmp t qbpuiquitigfi Lul|LnfiL|tibpfi qnun tibpl|ui Lupdbgp:
hull fipuigL|b|jinL|3jnLlip l|Lup6Lud"LU Jl|buip plinpn2nr\ hLUul|LUgnL|3jnLll t, npp l|bpLUpbpnLj t LUnl|LU fipLUgi|b[fl Ull|LnflL|tlbpflll U ^)flllLullULul|Lull 2nlL|Lutjtjp|n"Ll l|LUnLUL[LUpnL|3jLutl hwULutlb|jinL|3JLutip, npntig 2^nphfll| LL|bmp t hnUJMUJ^,LU9Llh llLUpfiLuduj Jl|bLnnLj U|LUpUl£>|l UU|LUULUpl|nLljp8:
UluL|lujIi IiJluIi u lu h JluIi m Jq, qnpôtiuil|LutinLJ lifipuinJuili lnbulul|buifig, lu L|tj h luj Ln n p bb futir|.pLuhLupnLjg t: <4.6ujpnLtiujL|nL|3jujti qtiuihuiLnnLJp Luu|Luqui LUnLUgllLUjflll hLU2l|bl|2hnbbpfl OqlinL|3jlu jp l|LUpnr\ t hflJlll|b[ JflLUjtl l|LullfllLULnb-UnLlîllbpfl l|ui J bll|aLUr).pnL|3jnLllllbpfl l|pLU: ^bmlLLUpLUp' L[6ujpnLllLul|nL|3JLull qtlLU-huiuiJuiti huiJuip luj[ JnuibgrnJlibp t ll|bmp l|fipumb|;
h ul|qpuitib, qnpôliLul|Luli JnuibgrnJlibprnJ, hbr|jitiLul|tibpp l|btiLnpntiLutinLJ tfili LL|LupLnp/<LlI U pjmgbfi hLU2i|bl|2hn/^l-'UL gnLguitif^tibpfi i(Lup£>Luqôbpfi i|pai: U"LuuljLUL[npLULL|bu^ bpp Lujr). gnLguitif^tibpp duiJuitiuilifi Jbg L|lujnlIj i|Lup-puiqfiô mlibli (uuiuigfintiuip bli)3, L|6uipnLtiLul|nL|3jLuti u|uijJuitip hliLupLui|np t pLui|LupLupi|Luô hLuiÎLupb[: I~lpn2 hbr|jitiLul|tibp L|6uipnLtiLul|nL|3jLuti u|LujJuitip lu-nLugLuplimJ bb qliLuhLumb[ LL|LupLnp/<LlI U pjmgbfi hui2L|bl|2hn/^L'UL gnLgui-tifi2tibpfi L|n fill m bqp JluIi uuirnqJuiti Jfi2ngni|: lljufitipti gnLguitif^tibpp l|Lupnr\ bli ULnuig|")nliLup ^h^^L (nLtibtiuj[ |apbtir|.), uluL|lujIi Lh^^L L|nfiliLnbqpL[Luô, fillip l|ti2wtiLul|fi, np u|aipLngfi uiâfiti pjmgbfi hui2L|bl|2hnp ll|LULnJuil|Lutinpbti uipàui-qLulipb[ t Lu6nL[1u:
»-Lbpgfili quir|Lui|iLupli Lunljuj t LL|Lupmpfi L|ujjnlIjnLpjuiti i|bp[nLÔnL|3jLuli LunLuligpujjfili JbL| lujl «^)fiul|lu[ LupÔLuqLulipfi qliLuhLumJujli» JnmbgJujli hfiJ-
8 Sb'u Bouabdallah O., Checherita-Westphal C. D., Warmedinger T., De Stefani R., Drudi F., Setzer R., Westphal A., Debt Sustainability Analysis for Euro Area Sovereigns: A Methodological Framework. ECB Occasional Paper, 2017, tg 185:
9 Umwg|mbwp [|ibb|nL hwJwp dujJmbujL|Ujj|ib 2ujnED u^bmp I; dujJujbujL||i Jbg nLbbbuj wbi|ini|m(u J|i2|nb b Llmphujghuj, |nb^p b2wbwl|ni.J t, np u^ujmJujL|Ujb [apbbr|. ni.bbbw[nL r|.bujj5nLJ r|.uj n^ umujg|nnbujp t [|ibb[nL:
10 Sb'u Chalk N.. Hemming R., Assessing fiscal sustainablllty in theory and practice. In Fiscal Sustainabil ity Conference, 2000, t"2 61:
pmJ, npti ainai2air).pti[ t C Pnhtip: »-Ltipgfiliu ainaigaipliriLJ t L[6ujpnLliail|nL-pjuiti a|wjdwliQ q.liaihaimti[ umuigtiLujfiti hui2L|bl|2nfi ^ Lqwpingfi JfigU tdu|fipfil| (i|inpàainail|aili) l|Luu|fi uuinLqiiuiti Jfi2ngnu[: Uuiuti lu 1^010^' bpp u|Lupui£>fi ptrnfi uiâfiti uinuigtiLujfiti hai2i|til|2hriD t^wtiLuliuiijinpbti T-pwl|iutj t LupSuiquiti-pmJ, luu|lu u[6aipnLliail|nl|3jaili a|aijJailip l|iupb|ji t pan|LupaipL[Luô haïJaipti[11:
LTbL| aij[ l|aiplinp JnmtignLJ t «hLupliuipjnLgbmLujfiti maipaiôpfi» qtiuihui-rnriLJp, npfi r).tia|pnLJ q.liaihaimu[nLJ t n^ qôuijfiti «^)fiul|ai[ uipSuiquitipfi» ^riLlil|-gfiui, II, l|fipainti[nu[ tiuiL u|Lupui£>fi mnl|nuLur|.pnLj£>fi l|wlifuwintiui|nrL duil|Lup-r|.Lul|Q, hai2i|Lupl|u[nLJ t a|wpingfi uaih duitiLuqfiôp, npu|bu uaihJailiaijfili L lJiluu-muigfi duil|Lupr|.Lul|tibpfi LnLuppbpnLpjnLlT «hwpliwpjnLgtiinwjfili maipaiôpp»: ULjrj. U Lfiuiuuiuigfi a|wpingfi gnLguitif^tibpfi haïJair).pnL|ajaiJp uipr|.bti qtiLuhLumui-l|uititibp bli inpi[nlJ u|Lupui£>fi L|lujnlÏjnljbjLuti u[bpaipbpjai[":
ULjtinLLUJbliaijlifiu[, JfigLuqquijfiti u|puil|Lnfil|LujnLd aiJbliail|fipainb[fili, pum trupjaili, UpdriLjiafi JfigLuqquijfiti hfiJliair).paiJfi (U-U<) L <aiJai2fuLuphaijfili puitil|fi (<P) l|nr|dfig haiJaimbr\ lÎ2luI|l|luô Jb|anr).aipailinL|3jnLlili t, npp duiti-paiJaiuli libpl|aijaigu[aiô t unLjti hnr|.i|uiôfi hbmuiqui 2wpuir|.pLuti£>nLd: Cum r).pai hfiiigrud ainl|ai uaihJailiJaib' a|bmail|aili a|aipmpp l|uijni.ti t, bpp r).pai pbnfi liu[aiqJaili l|uid ainliu[aiqli L|aijnLliaigJaili haiJaip wlihpwd^Ln ainaigliaijfili hai2i|bl|2hnD puiquijfiti l|uid fipwinbuwl|aili 2nl|bpfi ugbtiuiptibpfi u| luj Jui till b-pmJ £>wr|ui£>ail|aili U mtimbuLul|Luti Lnbuuitil|jnLtitibpfig fipLumbuuil|Luti f u|uipm£>fi ptir|.nLlib|ji gaiôp u[bpai^)filiailiuaiu[npJaili nfiul|bpfi U mtimbuLul|Luti uiâfi tibprndp £i|tiaiub|nL u|LujdLutitibpnLiP:
LJLjrj. Jb|anr).aipailinL|3jaiJp « a|bmail|aili u|Lupui£>fi L|lujnLtinljbjLuti qtiuihui-mmJlibp bli fipail|ailiaigpb[ fib^u|bu llpdnLjiafi JfigLuqquijfili hfiJliair).paiJp1 « <TI lu h n lu m luj fill ôpuiqpfi» 2P2UJtiLul|tibpnLd fipuil|LutiLugL|nrL nLunLiRjuiufipnL-pjnLlilibpnL[, aijliLL|bu t[ « Luliuti tjp |n liuu fu lu puu p n l|3jn lIiq: UnLUgflllfl l|nr|dfig 2020 r).bl|mbJpbpfili hpLuu|Lupuil|L|Luô i|bp[nLÔnL|3jnLlip i|iLuumb[ t, np « u|buiLul|Luli LL|Lupmpp Lj luj n lIj t, uuil|Lujti LupmLupdnL|aLujfili ujLupmpfi dbô L)2h^D U 2020 pli|aLugpnLiî ujLupmpfi pbnfi l|mpnLl| uiâp fungb|jinL|3jLuli l|LupUnp lui\-pjmptibp bli14: « ^fibuitiutibpfi liLufuLupLupnLpjLuli Ljnr[J|ng fipuil|LutiLugL|Luô u|Lupui£>fi L| luj n lIj n l[bj Lub i(bp|nLÔnL|3jnLtilibpnLl Llu ujLupmpp qliLuhLumi|b[ t L|lu-jmti U l|lunlul[Lupb[fi, uluL|lujIi qquijnLlT mil m bu lu L| lu li lu6[i U ijinfuLupd'bgfi 2nl|b-pfi liljLumJLuJp15:
11 Sb'u Bohn H., The behavior of US public debt and deficits, the Quarterly Journal of economics, 1998, 113(3), tg 949-963:
12 Sb'u Ghosh A. R., Kim J. I., Mendoza E. G., Ostry J. D., Qureshl M. S., Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies. The Economic Journal, 123(566), 2013, F4-F30:
1:: Sb'u Siddharth T. S., Staff Guidance Note for Public Debt Sustainability Analysis In Market-Access Countries, 2013, https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/050913.pdf.
14 Sb'u IMF (December 2020). Third Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Supplement; And Statement by the Alternate Executive Director for the Republic Of Armenia Country Report No. 20/318:
15 Sb'u CC ^>|nljujbubbp|i buj[uujpujpnL[ajnLb (2019). « L|ujnujL[ujpnL[ajujb mujpmg|n l|wjnibnL|ajwb i[bp[nL&nL|C*JnLb. w2fuwmwbj2wj|ib i|nwumw|anLr[ia.
https://minfln.am/website/lmages/files/DSA_MoF_2019_last.pdf, « 2021-2023 pp. u^bmujL|ujb Jjng
<buiuiqnuinL|3juiti iIb|»ni}uipuitinL|3jnLti: <binoiqninnL|3jni.lip hfidlii|ni.d t tdo|fipfil| U ugblioipoijfili i|bp[nLÖnLpjnLtititfp|n u[pai: llno^filip l|fipaini|ni.d f poi-gaihaijmti[nL l|oinoii|oipnL|3joili o|oipin£>/CbUl grugoilif^fi oiqr|.bgnL|3jnLlip doil|-pninliinbuoil|oili hfiiilioil|oili i|ini|infuoil|oililibpfi i|poT nbqpbufinli dnr|.b|libpfi qlioihonndoili dfigngnil; bpLjpnpr|.|n l|fipoindoidp paigaihaijmu[nLJ t ^^ '-loinoi-u[aipnLpjaili a|aipmp|n hlioipoii|np hbinoiqfi&p d^lioidoidlibin h0111111016111^ «poiqoijfili» l|oilifuoiinbuni.dlibpfi, fili^ujbu I101L hlioipoii|np doil|pninlnnbuoil|oili 2nl|bpfi oinoigoigiloili o|oipoiqoijriLJ:
ITbqpbufinli u[tip[nLÖnLpj01I1 pli|aoigpnoI qlioihonni|ni.d t l|oinoiu[oipnL|3joili o|oipmp/<LUl grugoilif^h i|ji6oil|oiqpoil|oili ifinfuoinli^nLpjnLlip inliinbuoil|oili oiöfi, poilil|oijfili u[oipl|oiu[npJoili oiöfi inbdojfi U Jbl| inoipfi duidl|binoijlini.|3jaidp o|binoil|oili qoiliäoio|binoil|oili o|oipinoiinndubpfi inbr|oipoi2fuiJoili bl|oidinoipb-pnL|3jnLtitibp|n hbun: ITbqpbufinli Jnr|.b[LibpnLd oqinoiqnp&i|ni.d tili « inlunbunLpjru-lip II Jfigoiqqoijfili qoipqoigrudlibpli oipLnoign[nr\ «l|oipqoii|npnr|» i|ini|infuoil|oili-libp, Joiulionlnpoioibu1 12-oidujoi qlioiöfi mtiJo|p, ULUL r|.n|oip/r|.poid ifinfuoipdti-{2Q, u[oipl|oiu[npJoili uinl|nuoir|.pnLjpp, VIX filir|.ti£>up, qnp&plil|bp bpl|plibpfi inliinb-uoil|oili oi6|n l|2ni|oi6 lihsh^D libpl|oijoiglinrL wpinoigfili o|oihoili2oipl|fi oiöfi gru-goilifi2p16:
'Tlbinoil|oili o|oipingfi l|oijnlIinLpj 01I1 qlioihonndoili hoiJoip plimpb[ blip MAC DSA Jnr).b[p, npp hlioipoiu[npnL|3jnLli t inoi|jiu i|bp|nL&b|nL o|oipmpfi pbnp plinL|aoiqpnr\ grugoilif^libpfi u[oippoiqfi6p moippbp qnp6fiplibpnu[ ÖUoii|npu[oi6 o|npm^)b[libpfi U moippbp Joil|pnmliLnbuoil|oili 2nl|bpfi o|oijdoililibpni.d:
MAC DSA Jnr>bLp J2oil|u[bL t 2002 p.1 UlK-fi U CP-fi linridfig hoidoiinbri: >-Lbp2filifiu lio|oimoil|p o|oipingfi L|lujnlIjnljbjLuti i|bp|nL&nL|3jnLlilibpp Jbl| hoiJai-l|oipqnLJ filimbqpb[li tp1 l|fipoinb[nu[ ubi|ioil|oili i|bp|nL&ni.|3jnLlilibpni.d: <binoi-qoijrud Jnr).b[p [oijli inoipoi&rud t quib[ U poipb[oiu[u[b[ hoiml|oio|bu 2009 öqlioidoiJfig U r).poili hol2npr|.ol&, o|binoil|oili o|oipmpfi Joil|oipr).oil|fi oi6nu[ o|oijJoilioiu[npu[oi6 o|oipingfi l|oijnlIinLpj01I1 hoipgbpfi upoigrudfig hbinn17:
2013 Jnr).b[p LnLP2 i(bpoilioijni.dtibp t mlibgb[ U qpbpb lirujli mbupnu[ libpl|oijnLJu oqmoiqnp6u[nLJ t h^^bu U <P, oijliujbu t[ oinoiliäfili
bpl|plibpfi o| 01 in 01 u [u 01I101 in n l diupdfililibpfi u[bp[nl6nl|3jnLlilibpnLJ:
Unr).b[p oiaihoiligruJ t iioil|pn^)fiul|oi[ poiqoijfili ugbliiupfi, fili^o|bu IioiIl puin qnp&figlibpfi fudpbpfi o|oipmpfi l|ainoiu[oipJoili 6poiqpfi oinl|oijnL|3jni.li: Uoil|pn^)fiul|oi[ piuqiujfili ugblioipp bli|aoir).pnLJ t CbU, oiliu[oilioil|oili U fipiu-
bwdwiil|bm öw(uubp|n öpwqjip, « LiwnwilwpnLiajwb ujwpmgli l|wjnibnL|ajwb L^bp [n LÖn Lpj n Lb q ,
tg 178-180:
16 U"nr|.b[bbpnLJ oq.mwq.npöi|nLJ bb 2001—2020 pp. dwdwbwl|whwmi|wöb pbr|.q.pL|nr[ mi|jw|bbp, npnbß him|ujßUjq.pL[b[ bb CC i[|n6ujL|Ujq.pujL|Ujb L|nJ|nmb|i, CC ^P b CC 9)Tj L|ujjßbp|ng (https://www.armstat.am/am/?nid=14, https://www.cba.am/am/SitePages/statmonetaryfinancial.aspx, https://www.cba.am/am/SitePages/statexternalsector.aspx, https://minfin.am/hy/page /hashvetvutyunner_e_vichakagrutyun1/): « Liujnuji^ujpnLiajujb u^ujpmß/<TjU. gnLgwb^fi bnrnJ-ujujl|ujj|ib mujppbpujLiujbnLiajuj Jp rfuj JmbujL|Ujj|ib 2UJi1ED ^ujLi^L t ubqnbujjbnpbb 62CH1U1L1UJÖ b mujpbL|UjbujgL[uJÖ bnmJujujL|Ujj|ib <Tjli-bbp|n h|iJwb i^n1^1 Llpmujßlib u^ujhujbgujpLili gnLgujb|i2p hu^ilwpL-ILlbL t U.U~b-|i, bLT bpL|pbbp|n Li 2|ibwuiiiwb|n mbmbuujL|ujb uj6bp|n L|2ni[ujö Jliglibn^ purn CC ujpmujß|ib ujnbmpriLJ nibbgwö L|2|nnbbp|i:
17 MAC DSA Jnr|.b[|i bl|ujpujq.|npp, oq.mujq.npöJujb nLr\bgnLjgbbpp b Excel $wj[]i rnb'u LLLT^C L|LujpnLJ. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/dsa/mac.htm
l|uiti ifinfuuipcHjptibpfi, qtiuiöfi, а|Ьшш1|ш1| pjrughfi bl|uidnLuitihpfi, u|biniul|uiti pjrughfi n^ innl|nuuijfiti ôuifuubpfi 6 шшри[ш l|uitifuuiinbuni.dtibp: Unr).b[nLJ uitihpuid^in t JnLLnpuq.pb[ liuli u|hinuil|uiti ujiuping|V pum lihpgfili U uipinui-pfiti u|uipui£>fi, puin uipinuipdïiL|auijfiti l|uinni.gi|uiô{2fi, fiti^u|bu liuiL diuprudtibpfi U mnl|nuuju[6ujplibpfi u|uiinduil|uiti ini|jui[tibpp:
UfiUlinLjli duiduitiuil|, a|Ujhujli2u[nLJ t Jrmnpujq.pb[ duil|pni|>fiul|uiL ôpuiqpfi hhin Иш21|Ы|2ги|ш0 u|uipui£>|i l|uinuii|uipduiti ôpuiqfip: ULjumbr^ uitihpuid^in t Jrmnpujq.pb[ tinp a|ujpunpfi tibpqpuii|duiti L|шnnLgu[шôpp, uinuitiâfiti qnpôfiplib-pfi fudpbpfi 1|шй q.npôfiplibpfi' |npbtig ujpdTiLj|alibpnu[, duidl|binuijtinL|3juidp, mn-1|пишг).рпур1|Ьрпи[, i|6uipduili hui6uifuuil|uitinL|3juidp U ujpmnlijuj[ diuduiliuil|iu-Ишти[ш0пи[ (рш1ф inuipfi ¿bti l|uiinuipi|b|nL duiprudtibpp qnpôfipfi l|fipuinduiti ptiiauigprud): 'Huipuipfi l|uitifuuiinbui|nrL diul|uipr|.uil|p huJ2i|ujpl|u[nLJ t dnr|.b|ji tibpurud:
Unr).b[fi libpurud bb huJ2i|ujpl|u[nLJ tiuiL uijLpliinpuibpuijfiti 1|шй 2nl|uijfiti ugbtiuiptibpp, npfi huiduip i|bp|nLÔnL|3jiuti 2P2Luliujl|libpnLJ l|uiph|ji t inpuidui-(1|шфрршд1|Ь[) 2nL|bpQ U duil|pnintiinbuuil|uiti grugujli^tibpfi qquijnLtinL-pjrulilibpp dfidjuitig lil|uiinduidp, 1|ш J |эпг|1|Ь[ г|.рш1ф dfigujqquijfiti фпр0|пЪ hiu-duihruti^ uuihduitii|uiô Jb&n l|bj n Ltiti bp n ф UjLpliinpiutipuijfiti ugbtiuiptibpfi âliui-i|npduiti ицшрш Jbmpbpp libpl|uijuigi[uiô bti шгипшш1| 1-rud:
ULrunLuml) 1
U"uilfpn!j>[iulfun ugbbuipbbpp MAC DSA ifnr}b[niif
Cnlf¡i ¿шф bpl]pnpr].uij[ib uiqt].bgniia>jnibbbp
UnujpbLujtib &pmqpi[mô Й2сИ1т1^ш^ L|bup jru-hui2L[bll2ftiï pujpujb^jnLp тшр|л, L|ujJ prnqujj|i-b|ig hujbmô 10 m um. и(иш[)л L|bup Snl|nuujr|.pnLj¡5bbp|i шбр 0.25 p.l|. 1 mnL|nu bi[ujqJujb r|.|iJujg
hpuiL/uib CU1 шб 1 um. J|nujL[np bi[mqriLJp 1|шЬ(иш mbui[nq bpL|pnpr|. b. bppnpr|. тш pnLlJ - Smôp qbujfip (0.25 umujäqujl|uj-bnL[3jujdp), mnL|nuujr|.pnLjj;)bbp|i шб (25 p.Ii.)
<Pnfuiupdb¡о 10 тшрфи ujnuji|b[UjqnLjb фпфп funLpjnLbp L|ujJ qbmhujmL[mô qbp ujpdùnpnulp - Sujôp qbmâp (0.25 mnmÖqmL|m- - bnLpjujJp)
hpuiL/uib ipnljnuuir].pnLjg 200 pujq|nuujj|ib шбр L|UjJ щшт JmL|Ujb nL L|UjbfuujmbuL[nq mnl|n -
ишг|.рпцрЬЬр|1 mmppbpnLpjriLbp
СLuiSiuipbq LuiuupbLujfib ИпшЬЙ^Ь 2nl|bp|i ujiîbbujilbô ujq- Qbb huJ2ilwpl|4nLJ bpL|pnpr|.mj|ib hiu2i(bll2hn' Cbll, r|.bgnL[ajnLbbbpp rnqr|.bgnL[ajnLbbbpp, npnbß huJ2-
Inpiuíjiub ifinfuiupdbg b bb шпшЬЙ^Ь 2nL|bph
ipnl]nuLuripni.ji) r|.bmgnLJ
'ThiijilLubuiLjuib ¡Ь|пЬшЬиш1|шЬ hrnJrnL|mpq|i ш1|- 1 um. ьфшфлр CbU. шб|л 1|прпш-ujiupipiuilnpnLpjnLhhbp rn|n|bbp|i 10 mnL|nup тр, qbuj6|n 1^шЪг|.шг1пи1р, urnujg-
ЪшфЪ huJ2i[bL|2nh bi[ujqnLJp, mn-L|numr|.pnLjßbbp|i шбр
ilbpliu6iu|3jiuíj: « Quinunluipnipjuiti ufuipipgli iffiipniifbbpp: <uijuiu-inuitifi <uitipuiu|binni.|3juiti u|hinuil|uiti pjrughti d2inuiu|bu u|uil|uiunLpr|.uijfiti t Ьг|Ь[, fi^h h^fili t ш1и|ш1|ш1|ш1| uipinuihuijinnLpjuidp u|bmuil|uiti
a|uipingfi l|nLLnml|nLJ: Qtirj. nprud, l|uifui|iuô тфш[ duduitiuil|uihuiini|uiôfi intiinbuuil|uiti |npши[|пбшL||ng U fipuil|uitiuigi|nrL huipliuipjnLghinuijfiti ршг^шрш-l|iulinL|3jnLlifig, а|Ьтш1|ш1| u|uipui£>ti rnlibgb[ t Lupuiq 1|шй uiöfi dfi-
inrud, fiti^p hailiq.bgpti[ t OjU. haiiîtidaiLnnLpjaidp a|aipmgfi pbnfi aiu[b[aigdaili L|luJ liu[aiqiîaili:
Ualullalu[npala|bu, u|Lupui£>fi pbnp liu[aiqb[ t 2000-uil|Lutitibpfi puipàp inliinbuwl|wli uiâfi daidailiaiL|aihaiLnu[aiônLd li ui6fi plir^hailirnp lifiuirud àliaiu[n-pb[ 2009 p-fig' l|LnpnLl| uiâ qpailigb[nu[ lirujti |ai|wl|wlifiir hLudu^fuLuphuijfiti li lu li u lu un li un bu lu L| lu li âqtiLudui dfi, 2015-2016 Lj Lutib tip Inti' uiLupLuôui-2P2Luliwjfili âqliLudLUJfi U hrudpLujfiti uil|LnfiL|tibpfi qtibpfi luIiL|JluIi duJluIiluL|lu-hLumi|LuôlibpnLJ, L[bp2Luu-|bu* 2020 |»L|Lul|Lutifitr COVID-19 haiJLUi|LupLul|nL[ U
LL|LULnbpLUqJni| LL|LUJJujllLUL[npL[LUÔ18: u.ju (tuijLullLul|LuhLULnL[LUÔllbpnLj « ^ILU-qlu l[lu p n Lpj n lIj p LnliLnbuLuL|Luli luIiL| duititi LupàujqLulipb[ t fupLulinrL huipl|LupjnL-gbuiuijfltl pLUr\LUpLul|LulinL|3JLUjp, fltl^p hLuliqbgpb[ t LL|UipLnjDfl pbnfl LUl|b[LUg-duiti13:
2020 p. « ^LuriLuilLupnLpjLuli LL|LupLnp/<LlI gnLguitif^Q u|uiLndLul|Luti LUnLUl|b[LUqnLjll Jujl|LUpr|.Lul|[ltj t hujub[ llLufunpr). LnLUpi|LU lll|LULnJlUJp LUL|b|LU-liLU[ni| 13.6 uinl|nuuijfiti l|bLnnL[ U l|LuqJb[nL[ 63.5%: Uprurutipruif <X ^Lunui-i|LupnL|3jLuli u|luping/Cli11 gruguitif^p qbpujqLuligb[ t «^buiLuliuiti u|Lupui£>fi duiufiti» opblipni| uujhJluIil[luô 60% 2biïwjfili gruguitif^p, npfi u|LujdLutitibpnLd, purn «« pjnLgbmLUjflll hLuJLul|LUpqfl liuiufltl» « opbllgfl U « ^ILUnLUllLUpnL-PjluIi 2018 p. oqnuuinufi 23-fi N 942-L npn2iÏLuti, 5 mLupi|LU hnpfiqntirud (dfiti-^U 2026 p.) ^ lu qlu l[lu p n Lpj n lIj p LL|bmp t lii|Luqbglifi LL|Lupmpli uujrj. 2bJ|ng (qôui-LL|LULnl|bp 1):
'TlLUpLn£>fl pbnfl LUl|b[LUgjLulip qnLqplipLUg Ul6b[ t tlUlL llbppflll U|LUpUl£>fl l|2finp ^LuriLuilLupnLpjLuli uiuipuiprud: lljuLL|bu^ 2010-2020 |ai(Lul|Lutitibpfiti libp-pfiti LL|Lupmpli Lui|b[Lugb[ t 2nLP2 10%-uijfiti L|bLnnL[, 15.6%-fig hLuulib[ni| 25. 5%-fi: Cbr). nprud, libpgfili LL|Lupmpfi duiutiuipuicftifi hfidtiLul|Luti Lui|b[LugnLLilibpp uibr|ji bti nLlibgb[ âqliLudLUJlujJiIi 2016 (4.6%-Lujfiti l|bm) U 2020 (3%-Lujfiti l|bm) pi|LU-l|Lulilibpfili:
UjlinLLUJbllLUjllfll|, llbppflll LL|LUpLnp|l jLUullLUpLUctfllip U|LUpUl£>fl LL|npm^)b-[mJ 2wpruliLul|nLd t Jliuj[gLuôp U, opfitiuil|, MAC DSA Jb|anr).LupLulinL|3jLU Jp hui-JLupi|nLJ t puipàp fungb|ji llju LL|LULn6Lunni| « ^LuriLuilLupnLpjnLlip tiLL|LULnLU-l|LUr|.pb[ t dfl2t|Wcl'Ludl|bLn ^ bpl|LUpLud"LuJl|bLn hLULni|LUÔllbpnLj LUl|b[LUgllb[ ^ILU-nLUl|LUpnL|3JLull U|LUpLn£>r)Ld llbpftflll LL|LUpLn£>|l L)2lnrID
1B 'Tlbmwliwb ujwpmgln L|nLmujL|Jujb ijinLLbpp hwJwl|wpq.i|w& bbpL|iujujgL[uj6 bb P. l-luipi}uitijuiti|i, 9-, LLi[uiqjuiti|i, L. U[u|ipuipjuiti|i, "li. lHuipuiiqbinjuiti|i «U"ujL|pnmbmbuujL|Ujb pmr\ujgujL|UjbnL pjnLbbbpp b ujbmwl|wb mujpmg|n L|nLuiujL|nLJp «-riLJ» hnr|.L[uj6nLJ, «U.3LmjSPliTj-P» q.|nmuj-L|ujb hujbr|.bu, 2020 p., hnL[|iu-ubujmbJpbp, tg 22-38:
19 Cbr|.hwbnLp ujnJujJp, i|nnp5ujnujL|Ujb hbmujqnmnLpjnLbbbpp gnLjg bb mi|b[, np fupujbnq hujpl|uj-pjnLgbmwjIib ¡3Ujr[Ujj5UjL|UjbnL[ajnLbp <ujjujumujbnLJ, mbl|ujfu dmJujbujL|UjhujmL[uj6|ig, nLr\bl|g-L[mJ t mujpmg|n pbn|n w6ni[: linujL[b[ JujbpujJujub rnb'u Grigoryan K., Avagyan G., Karapetyan N.. Mkhitaryan L., Impact of macroeconomic policy shocks on the Armenian economy: evidence from VAR analysis, Norwegian Journal of development of the International Science, №49, VOLUME 2, 2020, Oslo, Norway, tg 14,
URL: http://www.njd-iscience.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/NJD_49_2.pdf
20 IMF (2013). Staff Guidance Note for Public Debt Sustainability Analysis in Market-Access Countries. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Policy-Papers/Issues/2016/12/31/Staff-Guidance-Note-for- Public-Debt-Sustainablllty-Analysls-in-Market-Access-Countrles-PP4771:
21 Sb'u <X 2021-2023 pp. ujbmwl|wb J|igbujd"UjJL|bm 6w(uubp|n &pwq|ip, <X LiwnwilwpnLpjwb ujwpmgli L|mnujL[ujpJujb 2021-2023 [ai[ujL|Ujbbbp|i nmqJmL[ujpujL|Ujb &pwq|ip, t"g 146-147:
sooo.o 4ooo. o 3ooo.o 2ooo. o looo.o o o
53.7
63.5
37.3
■ ■ I I ■ ■ I
oRoooooooo"
c^n^LOi-O^COWO
7o. o eo.o so.o 4o.o 3o.o 2o.o io.o o.o
^^■Tjhpglib щЬтш1|шЪ щшртр, LÎynrj. r|.pmJ
ЧЬЪтрпЪш1|шЪ ршЪ1ф шртшр|пЬ щшртр, r|.pmJ H■ Чшпш1[шрп^шЬ шртшр|пЬ щшртр, r|.pmJ Ш СС Чшпшфирпц^шЬ щшрицэ/СЫ1, %, uig шпшЬдр
Я-0ши|иип1]Ьр « ujbipujlpub upupipgfi U upupipgCbU. gniguibfcfr 2шПс^П^1аш90
« lHuinuii(uiprupjuiti u]uiping|i uiqrçbgmpjnLtitibpQ: Шит fipiul|iutiiug-i[iuô nbqpbufinti i|bp|nLÔnL|3jiutr « 4iuniui|iupnL|3jiuti u|iupin£>fi phnfi ши[Ь[ш-grudp прп2ш1|[1 piugiuuiul|iuti iuqr|.bgnL|3jnLti t n lIj bti n l J intiinbuiul|iuti iu6fi inbdii|fi, i|iupl|iui|npdiuti iu6fi inbdu|fi U u|biniul|iuti a|uipinuiinndubpfi innl|n-uiur|.pnLj£>tibpfi и[рш: Uuulilui|npluu|hiT « 4iuniui|iupnL|3jiuti u|iupin£>/CLIJ. gru-goilifi2h 1 in n l| n и luj [ib l|binnil iui|b|iugnLdp, puin qtiiuhiuiniul|iutitibpfi, 0.1 mn-l|nuiujfili 1|Ьтп1| ршдшишршр t iutir|.piur|.iuntinLd intiinbuiul|iub iu6fi i[piu, 1.2%-iujfiti ^Ьтт!' piutil|iujfiti i[iupl|iui|npdiuti ôiui|iu[tibpfi iu6fi i[piu II 0.1%-iujfiti 1|Ьтп1| piupäpiugtirud t dbl| iniupfi diudl|tïiniujtinL|3jiudp u|iupiniu-inndubpfi innl|nuiur|.pnLjj2p (iurunLuiul| 2):
UrijnLUwlj 2
« L/uinuiiluipnipjuib upupipgCbU. gmguibfcfr uiqr).bgnipjnib[] duil/pnipbipbuuilpub ifimfinfuiuljiubbbpfi Цpui
Shipbuiulpuh шб Uuiplpuilnpiluib шб ШтпШШгптшпШ
I Фпфп[иш1|ш1| I 4ripâuil||ig 1 Фпфп[иш1|ш1| I Я-ii póuil]|ig I Фпфп[иш1|ш1| I 4ripâuil||ig|
4ujniui|ujpnL|ajujh щшрицэ/СЫ1 -0.1*** Читшфирги^шЬ щшрицэ/СЫ1 -1.2*** Читшфирги^шЬ щшрицэ/СЫ1 0.1***
12-rnJujrn с).Ьшб -0.4** 111ГЪ r|.n[mp/r|.pmJ фп(ишрсЛф|п шб (-1) -0.4* lilTb r|.n[mp/r|.pmJ фп(ишрсЛф|п шб (-1) 0.1**
Иртиф^Ъ u^mhmbgmpLi 2.2*** Ц-шр^шфпрЛиЪ ит1|пишг|.рпщ> -3.0*** Ц.шр1|Ш1[пр11шЬ тп1|пишг|.рпщ> 0.1***
C -70.1** C 250.9*** VIX hbr>bEu г* 0.1***
0- b m Ь p lS ti m g |t m j |i qn|iduil||ig G.7 1-bui bpií|iti iiig|iuij|i qn|iduil||ig G.6 C "T-bui bpLÏ|iti iug|iiuj|i qn|iduil||ig -21.4*** G.8
thubnpuiqpnipjnib.
Ь2шЬш1^шф f 90% huiL[ujbujLiujbnLiajUjdp, b2iubiul]iu[/) f 95% hiui¿iubiul]iubnLpjiudp, * Ь2шЬш1^шф í" 99% hiui(iubiul]iubnLi3jiudp:
« LiuitiuiiluipnLpjuiti u]uiping|i ugbtiuipuij|iti i[bpLiH6iH|3jiHti: MAC DSA
Jnr).b[fi J2luI|JluIi haiJaip oqinuiqnp&i|ui& ini|jui|libpp u[bpgu[ai6 bli « i^filiuiliu-libpfi liuifuuipuiprupjuili, i|ji6uil|uiqpuil|uili l|ndfiinbfi, l|bliinpnliuil|uili puilil|fi i|ji6uil|uiqpuil|uili hpuiu|uipuil|ni.dlibpfig U puiquibbpfig, fiul| d2wl|i|ui& ugbliuip-libpfi Jail|pn^)fiul|ail l|uilifuuiinbuni.dlibpp h|ndtilJ bli llpdrujiafi dfigwqquijfili hfidliwr|.puidfi l|uilifuuiinbuni.dlibpfi puiguinrupjuiJp « r).paiJ/ULUL r).n-
[aip ifinfuuipd'bpfi, npfi Jaiunu[ l|uilifuuiinbuni.dlibpp umaigu[b[ bli ARMA dnr|.b|ji oqlirupjuidp: 'Tlaipin£>fi a|npm^)b[fi l|uinuii|uipduili Jaiunu[, 2021 p. hwdwp Jn-r).b[nLJ L|fipainu[b[ bb bpl|riL hfiu|n|abinfil| ugbliuiplibp.
Unuiglib ugbtiuip o|aipunpfi l|ainaiL|aip^[i pjrugbfi huiduifuuinli ^fill aibuaiu[np Jaib l|wpfi£>p 2022-2026 pp. uiu|uihni|ni.d t 50% libppfili (1, 3, 5, 10, 30 inwpfi daiJl|bmaijlinL|3jaiJp u|binuil|uili quili5uiu|binuil|uili a|aipmaiLnnJubp) U 50% uipinuipfili uir|pjnLplibpfi (puiqduil|nr|d, bpl|-l|nr|ii u[aipl|bp, uinLinpuijfili puilil|bpfig ULnaigu[nr\ u[aipl|bp U bu[pna|aip-maimnJubp) hai2i|h^: H-paiJaijfib qnp&fiplibpfi uinl|nuuir|.pnLj£>libpp u|uihi|ni.d bli 2020 p. duil|uipr|.uil|ni.d, fiul| uipinuipd'ni.puijfili qnp&figlib-p|n uinl|nuuir|.pnLj£>libpp li Jjruu a|wjdwlilibpli qIjr|.nlIiu[nlJ bli a|npini|>b|ji Jfigfili l|2ni|ai6 gruguilif^libpfili huiduiu|uiinuiufuuilP: bpljpnpri ugbtiuip. pjrugbfi huiduifuuinli infill uiliuuii|npduili l|uipfipp 2022-2026 pp. aiJpnr^nLpjai Jp uiu|uihni|i|ni.d t tibppfili aiqpjnLplibpfi
hai2i|h^:
Ulnaigfib ugbliuipfi aipryrnlipriLJ u|uipui£>fi uipdmpuijfili l|ainnLgu[ai6pp qpb-pb uilii|ini|infu t lilirnJ, fiul| bpl|pnpr|.fi aipr^jrulipriLJ r).paiJaijfili u|uipinjDfi l^h^D qqai[fi plir|.|uijlii|ni.d I;:
Puiquij|iti ugbtiuip 1
Puiquij|iti ugbtiuip 2
0%
0%
•A jft rR> rN rQ, A rfb rfo
O-pwJnil wpmwhwjmi|w& iqwpmp UpinwpdnL|awj|ib iqwpmp Liumwi|wpnL|ajwb iqwpmp/Cbll
IpujJnij wpmwhwjmi|w& ujwpmg U.pmwpdnL|awj|ib iqwpmp Liwnwi|wpnL|ajwb ujwpmg/CbU.
9-6uiu|uiuiljbp 2. Unuigliti li bplfpnpij. ugbtiuiptibpniif ujuipip^fi iluipguiqfiAp li Ifiunnigilui&gb Quip uipdmjpfi
^ Sb'u IMF, World Economic Outlook: Managing Divergent Recoveries, April 2021. https://www.lmf.org/en/Publlcatlons/WEO/weo-database/2021/Aprll:
Si|jw|bbp|i ujqpjnLpp^ https://mlnfln.am/webslte/lmages/flles/2020-12-31-Gorcox-artaqln-varkerl-paymanner-am.xls
Cum qôuiu|uiinl|hp 2-\\ puiquijfili ugbtiuip 1-rnJ r|.puiduijfili u|uipui£>fi l|2h-np dfili^L 2026 p. JlimJ t qpbpb шЬфпфп^ (24.2%' 2020 p. 24.4% дтдиЛфгЬ фп[ишрЫ|), fiul| puiquijfili ugbtiuip 2-rud hiuulirud t dfi^h. 43.3 innl|nufi: lll|li-huijin t, np uijua|fiufi u|uipui£>fi и|пртфЬ|1|Ьрр dfiuitiquiduijli muippbp L|bpa|nu[ o|bmp t uipäuiquilipbli Juil|pní|>fiul|uiL 2nl|bpfili, рш1ф np, liuifiT uinuigfili r).ba|-pmJ u|uipui£>fi щпртфЬцш! qbpuil^nrud t Lupinuipdm|auijfili u|uipui£>p, npli uii|b|ji qquijruli a|bmp t ih^h фп^шрсНз^ф 2nl|t¡pfi lil|uiinduidp: UjnLU ^п^^д1 гцнийшфЬ ицшртрр ши[Ьф puipâp innl|nuuir|.pni.j£> t l|pnLd: Um t щштбшпр, np lirujli Juil|pní|>fiul|uiL ЬЪr|.pnLfajnLtitiЬp|n libppn uinuigfili r|.bu|£>nLd l|uinui-i|uipni.|3juili а|шртр/<Ъ11 huipuipbpuil|gnL|3jni.lip lii|uiqni.d f huiulib|ni( 56%-fi, fiul| Ьр1|рпрг). ri.baipnLJ1 dfili^L 58%-fi:
Я-0ша|шт1|Ьр 3-rud libpl|uijuigi|ui& bli hfidliuil|uili Juil|pní|>fiul|uiL 2nMtrpQ MAC DSA dnrj.b[nlJ li ajujpmpfi uipöuiquilipli mjrj. 2nl|hpfili:
Unuigtiuijliti hm2ilbl|2hn
2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0%
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Pmqmj|nb идЬЬшр
CnL|
6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0%
В.0% В.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0%
hpuiljuiti CLUL uififi Ц
S ✓
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 идЬЬшр — — Cnl| Snljnuuir|.pnijj3|i 2nl|
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Pmqmj|nb идЬЬшр 1
Pmqmj|nb идЬЬшр 2
"Tluipmgfi ugbtiuiptibp
75% 70% 65% 60% 55%
ВВ% 7В% 6В% 5В% 4В%
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Pujqujj|ib идЬЬшр 1
— — Cnl| идЬЬшр 1
Pujqim|ib идЬЬшр 2
— — Cnl| идЬЬшр 2
"Tlujpmgfi ugbtiuiptibp
70% 65% 60% 55% 50%
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Pujqujjlib идЬЬшр 1
— — Snl| идЬЬшр 1
Pujqujjlib идЬЬшр 2
— — Cnl| идЬЬшр 2
'Tluipuigli ugbtiuiptibp
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Pujqujjlib идЬЬшр 1
— — Snl| идЬЬшр 1
Pujqim|ib идЬЬшр 2
— — Snl| идЬЬшр 2
0n|uuipd,bg|i 2nl{
730.00 680.00 630.00 580.00 530.00 480. 00
80% 70% 60% 50%
"Tlwpingfi ugbtiuiptibp
'2021 '2022 20233 2024 '2025 2026 Pwqwj|ib ugbbujp — — Cnl|
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Pwqwj|ib ugbbujp 1
— — Cnl| ugbbujp 1
Pwqwj|ib ugbbujp 2
— — Cnl| ugbbujp 2
100%
"Tluipuigfi ugbtiuiptibp huiiluiuib^ 2n4h mwjiiuititibpiuii
50%
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Pwqwj|ib ugbbujp 1 — — Cnl| ugbbujp 1 Pwqwj|ib ugbbujp 2 — — Cnl| ugbbujp 2
9-duiujuiinljbp 3 LTuilfpn^)fiulfuii 2nlfbp[] U u/uipipgfi ugbbiupbbpp MAC DSA iinij.bimii
Cum q&WLL|LULnl|bp 3-fi' r).fiLnaipl|ti[ blip 5 Jail|pn^)fiul|ai[ 2nl|tip. uinuigliw-jfili hai2i|til|2nfi- |npuuL)uuti <LUl uififi, Lnnl|nuLur|.pnLj£>libpfi, i|infiJLupd"bp|n II r).paibg haiJail|gJaili: ^lainaiilaipnLpjaili u|Lupui£>fi hwdaip «aiJbliaiu[Lnailiq.Luu[n-pp» LnliLnbuuil|Luli uififi 2nl|li t. Jnr).ti[aiu[npu[ai6 trpLjixnijuj LnliLnbuuil|Luli nbgb-ufiuijfi aiprynLliprnJ l|ainaiu[aipnL|3jaili a|aipmgp «|an^ni.d t» 78 uinl|nufig u[bpU, pbr). npruJ1 ugbliuip 2-fi r).tia|pnLJ uijli 2nLP2 ^li Lnnl|nu luj fill l|tiLnnL[ paipSp t, paili ugbliuip 1 -nuJ t: Ulu, fihuipl|b, ^hlu2l[ai6 hui Jail|gL[Lu6 2nMD LnliLnbuuil|Luli nbgbufiui, Lnnl|nuLur|.pnLj£>titjpfi lu6, uipdrujiafi LupdtiqplinLJ Ll uinuigliLujfili ll|lu-l| lu u n Lp r|.n l[ fuiauilinq huipl|lupjnl2bln luj fill pwr|lu£>lul|lulinl|3jnlli Jfiuidui JluIiluI|: ULju r).till|pnlj a|luplnpp «lari^ruj t» Jfili^l <lul 91 1|luJ 92 lnnlinup1 l|lufiil|lu&
LL|npUl^)b[[l l|LUnr)LgL|LU&£>fig:
hli^ujbu Luprj-bb li2b[ blip, ugbliaip 2-ruJ 5UaiL[npL[Lu6 a|LupLnpaijfili u|npui-^>b[li aii|b[fi r).fiJLugl|nLli t ijinfuLupd'bpfi 2nl|bpfi lil|LULnJaiJp, uluI|lujIi rj.d'ilLup Lnbuailib[fi t i|bpp pbpi|ai6 2n'-l':iPh wpruruliplibpruJ: 'TlaiLnfiainp hbLnUjai[li t. l|infllLUpc)'bpfl 2nMD «haipL[Lu6nLj t» U|LUpUl£>fl l|LUnr)LgL|LU&£>flll l|OlllfllLULnbuL[nrL bpl|pnpr). maipnLJ, bpp r).bn r).pLUJuijfili uiuipuigfi l^h^D 2LULn ¿h Lnaippbpi|nLJ ugbliaip 1-fi L)2rih9: UluI|lujIi b|ab u|Lupui£>fi 2nMD ih^^P- T-h9nLP' 2026 |a-fili, lull|lu ijinfuLupd'bpfi 2nh wprjjruliplibpp ll|bui{d t LUJL Lh^fili: Ulu i|inp5Lupl|b|nL hwdaip, oqLnaiqnp&b[ni| ubi|iLul|Luli 2nLjbpQ Jnr|.b|LUL|npb|nL hliaipaiL[npnL|3jnLlip, dblip bpl|nL ugbliuiplibpfi ll|luj JaililibpnLJ «LupdbqplinLJ blip» r).pai Jp 2026 |a-filT 2025 lil|LULnJaiJp 30 mnl|nunL[, fiul| JliaigaiS Jail|pn^)fiul|LU[ i|ini|infuLul|Luli-libpp a|LuhnLJ puiquijfili ugbliuipfi uaihJaililibpnLJ: UprynLlipp u|LULnl|bpL|LU& t q6aia|LULnl|bp 4-ruJ:
0n|uuipd,bg|i ilbpshfa uiuipnLiI 770.0 "Tlujpingfi ugbtiuiptibp 98%
/ 670.0 j
48% 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
470. 0 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Pwqwj|ib ugbbujp 1 — — Cnl| ugbbujp 1
Pwqwj|ib ugbbujp — — Cnl| Pujqujj|ib ugbbujp 2 — — Cnl| ugbbujp 2
9-6uiu|uiinljbp 4. <Pn[uuipdbj>li ilbpgfiti ipuipi[ui 2n^D k ujuipipjjfi ugbtiuiptibpp i}piu ufiujifuibbbpniif
Uuiuli lu 1^010^' Lupdmjpfi dbliLuliqunIjui LupdbqplinLdp ugbliuip 1-rud huiulinLii t 69 mnl|nufi, fiul| ugbliuip 2-nLif 68 mnl|nufi: Clir). npmJ, ainaigfili ugbliuipnLii u|Lupui£>li wfirud t 60 mnl|nufig, fiul| bpl|pnpr|.nLif 61 mnl|nufig (luj-ufiliplT +9.4%-uijfili l|bin[i LfinfuuipblT + 7.1%-uijfili l|bm. luj[ l|bpu| uiuluS' 2.3%-uijfili l|bin « full aijnr\nL|3j mil» dill-md): Ujumbr^ aipr).bli ail|lihaijLn t, np r).paiJai-jfili a|aipmp[i wi|b|ji Jbô l^h^D a|aipunpli aiu[b[fi r|.fidwgl|ni.li t r).aipàlinLJ ijin-fuuipdbpfi 2nl|bpfi lil|aimJai Jp li linLjlifiul| r).pailig haï Jaia|aimaiufuailinrL paipàp mnl|nuLujfili ôuifuubpfi r|.ba|£>ni.d ijinfuaipd'bpfi 2nMh9 hbrnn huiliqbglinLd aiu|b|ji gaiôp u|Lupui£>fi pbnfi:
bqpuiljuignLpjnLti "Tlbinwliwli uiuipuigfi L|lujnlIinlpjuuti hfidliwhwpgbpp COVID-19 haiJaiu[aipail|fi li fu|awlinrL haipliaipjnLgbmaijfili pair\aipail|ailinL-pjuidp r).paili aipàaiqailipb[nL a|wjdwlilibpni.d linp upmpjnLli bli umaigb[ n^ dfiuijli <aijaiumailinLJ, aij[li hLudu^fuLuphuijfili Jail|Lupri.ail|nu[: « ^ainaiilai-pmpjuili a|aipunpp 2020 p. qbpaiqailigb[ t CbUL 60%-fi 2bJp' l|aiqJb[nu[ 63,5%: ULju a|wjdwlilibpni.d l|uipLnp t haiul|ailiai[, pb fili^u|fiufi" hliaipaiu[np aiqr).bgnL-pjmli l|aipnr\ t nLlibliai[ a|aipmpp Jail|pnmliLnbuail|aili qaipqaigrnJlibpfi u[pai li u[aippaiqfiô l|aipnr\ t nLlibliai[ JfigliaidaiJlibm hbnallll|alpnLJ, l|aifuu[aiô mil un bu lu l| aili quipquigrudlibpfig:
LJLjrj. liLL|LumLul|nL[ liuifu fipLul|LuliLugpb[ blip nbqpbufinli i|bp[nLÔnLpjnLlT pai-gLuhLujmb[m l|LunuiL|LupnL|3jLuli LL|Lupmp/<LlI gruguilif^fi Luqr).bgnL|3jnLlip uiliuib-ULul|Lull Luâfl, p LU II l| LUJ [ill l[lU p l| LU l|n p Jujll ÔLUl|LU[llbpfl uiâfi U LqLupmLumn dubpfi mnl|nuLuri.pnLjplibpfi i|puj: 9-liLuhLumilLuô Jnr).b[libpp gmjg bli mi|b[, np u|Lupui£>fi pbnp ll2LullLul|LU[finpbll pLUgLUULUpLUp t l|infllLUnll£L|nLd LUriLUghb bpl|nLu[l, r).pLU-l|LulT bppnpr).fi hbm: lljufiliplT LL|bmLul|Luli u|Lupui£>p npn2Lul|f^, pbU ULuhduiliui-ifiiul|, pLuguiuuil|Luli Luqr).bgnL|3jnLlilibp t mliblimd mlimbumpjuili ijjiLu:
UjlinLhbmU l|LumLupb[ blip l|LunuiL|LupnL|3jLuli u|Lupm£>/CbUl gmguilif^h Jh2~ liLuduj Jl|bm ug bli lu p luj fill l|bp|nLÔnL|3jnLlT U.U<-fi II <P-fi l|nr|dfig iÎ2luI|l|luô MAC DSA Jnr).b[nL[: 2021-2026 |ai|Lul|Lulilibpli plir|.qpl|nrL dui JwliLul|LuhLULnL|Luôfi hwduip J2Lul|i|b[ bli bpl|nL puiquijfili ugbliuiplibp1 u|Lupui£>fi libpqpLui|JLuli bpl|nL mujppbp ugbliLuplibpnL[, fili^ujbu liiuL fipLul|LuliLugL[b[ t LL|Lupmpfi uppbu pbu-mLui|npnLJ JLul|pn^)fiul|LU[ 2nl|bpfi lil|LumJLUiîp: ULprynLliplibpp gmjg bli mi|b[, np LLjLupmpli lu JbliLuqqLujmlili t mlimbuLuljLuli lu6[i II ijinfiiLupd'bpfi 2nl|bpfi liljLum-
duidp, plir). npruif ^buijuiö bhppfib LuqpjnLpbhpfi и[рш hfiJln|nr\ a|uipingfi bhp-qpuiL|dLub ughbuiprud iqiuping/dili gruguibf^p pLuquij|nb ughbuiprud uii(h|ji puipöp t итшдфш!, tuil|uibnphb u|uil|uiu qquijrub t фп^шрс^Ь^ф 2ntip|n bl|uiLnduidp: ULjrj. 2nl|hpfi u|uijduibbhpnLii, puui trupjuib, l|uinuiL|uipnL|3jLub a|uipinpp r^uinbrud t uib l|lujnlIj, puibfi np hbuipuii|np ф [fibnuJ ша|шИпи[Ь[ huipliuipjnLghLnuijfib l|uibnlilihpnil u|uihiub2L|nq 62qpmriLJp, uijufibpb' dfib^L 2026 liu[uqbglib[ а|шртр/<Ъ11 gnLgulifi2P 60%-fig:
<bmuqnmnL|3juli шргцгиЬрЬЬрр i(l|LujnLd bli, np uiuipuipfi uii|h|uignLdp, pbr^huibrup uinduidp, duil|pnLnbLnhuuil|Lub фбш1ф и[рш uuihduibu^uil| рш-дшиш1|ш1| uqr).bgnL|3jnLli t rubbbrud, fib^fi u|uipuiquijnLii l|uplinpu[nLJ t l|uib-fuuiLnhuL|nq hhnuibl|uipnLd а|шртр[1 рЬгф liu[uqbgnLJp: UfiUbnLjb duiduibuili, fib^u|hu gnyg bli mu[b[ upphu |эЬитЬрр, a|uipinpfi l|iunnLgL|ui&£>nLd uibhpui-db2Ln t ршрЙршд1|Ь[ r|.pLudLujfib qnp&fipbhpfi l^h^D- h^iD- ^buijuiö П-Пш ШР~ гцгиЬргш! тп1|пиши[бшр1|Ьр[1 ши[Ь[шдйш1|р, tuil|iulinphli l|dhr|dfi uiuipuipfi qquijrulinLpjnLlip фп^шрс^Ь^ф 2nl|hpfi lil|uiLnduidp:
Oquiuiqnp6i[ui6 qpuil|uitinLpjmti
1. CC 2021-2023 |Э|Э. u|hiniul|iub d|i2biud"iudl|hin Siu(uuhp|i
https://minfin.am/website/images/website/mijnajamket/mjcc2021-23.rar
2. « ф|-|ЪшЪиЪЬгф biu (и шрифту rub (2019). « Чшпшф-ирги^шЪ а|шр1лр|п l|iujnLbru|ajiub L[bp[nLÖnl|bjnLb, и^^иштшЬрьифЬ фшитш-ргигцэ.
https://minfin.am/website/images/files/DSA_MoF_2019_last.pdf
3. М.шрг|.шЬ]шЬ -P., lli|iuq.jiub 4-., U[u|i|aLupjLub L,., 4iuriiuii|hinjiub L., 1Гш1|рП1лЬ1лЬиш1|шЬ ßLUr[LUßLul|LubnL|3jnLbbbpQ L LLjЬLflLULjLLlbl ii|iuriinjD|i L|nLinujL|nLdQ «rud, «U.3LGLSPIIL-P» q.|iiniul|iub hiubr>bu, N3, 2020. http://alternative.am/2020/09/
4. Bohn H., The Behavior of US Public Debt and Deficits. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 113(3), 1998.
5. Bouabdallah O., Checherita-Westphal C., Warmedinger T., De Stefani R., Drudi F., Setzer R., Westphal A., Debt sustainability analysis for euro area sovereigns: a methodological framework. ECB Occasional Paper, 2017.
6. Chalk N., Hemming R., Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice. In Fiscal Sustainability Conference, 2000.
7. Ghosh A., Kim J., Mendoza E., Ostry J., Qureshi M., Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies. The Economic Journal, 123(566), F4-F30, 2013.
8. IMF. World Economic Outlook, April 2021: Managing Divergent Recoveries.
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2021/03/23/world-economic-outlook-april-2021
9. IMF. Third Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Modification of Performance Criteria—Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Supplement; And Statement by the Alternate Executive Director for the Republic Of Armenia Country Report No. 20/318, 2020. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2020/12/16/Republic-of-Armenia-Third-Review-under-the-Stand-By-Arrangement-and-Modification-of-49961
10. Salsman R., The political Economy of Public Debt: Three Centuries of Theory and Evidence. Edward Elgar Publishing, 2017.
11. Siddharth T., Staff guidance note for public debt sustainability analysis in market-access countries. 2013. https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/050913.pdf
12.Grigoryan K., Avagyan G., Karapetyan N., Mkhitaryan L., Impact of macroeconomic policy shocks on the Armenian economy: evidence from VAR analysis, Norwegian Journal of development of the International Science, №49, VOLUME 2, 2020, Oslo, Norway. http://www.njd-iscience.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/NJD_ 49_2.pdf
КАРЕН ГРИГОРЯН
Заведующий кафедрой макроэкономики АГЭУ, кандидат экономических наук, доцент
ГАЯ НЕ АВАГЯН
Доцент кафедры макроэкономики АГЭУ, кандидат экономических наук
НАРЕК КАРАПЕТЯН
Аспирант кафедры финансов АГЭУ
ЛУСИНЕ МХИТАРЯН
Кандидат экономических наук
Проблемы устойчивости государственного долга
РА.- Проблема стабильности государственного долга в Армении приобретает особое значение в 2020 году, когда соотношение государственного долга к ВВП превысило 60%-ный порог бюджетного правила. Авторы обсуждают возможности обеспечения устойчивости долга в Армении, исследуя ее макроэкономические эффекты, разрабатывая среднесрочные сценарии и применяя макрофискальные стресс-тесты. Исследование показало, что долг имеет ограниченное негативное влияние на макроэкономическую ситуацию, а шоки экономического роста и обменного курса могут сделать долг неустойчивым, что подразумевает необходимость консолидации долга в сочетании с увеличением доли драмовых инструментов в долговом портфеле.
Ключевые слова: бюджетные правила, платежеспособность, ликвидность, сценарный анализ, стресс-тесты.
ШЬ: Е47, 011
001: 10.52174/1829-0280_2021_2_32
KAREN GRIGORYAN
Head of the Chair of Macroeconomics of ASUE, PhD in Economics, Associate Professor
GAYANE AVAGYAN
Associate Professor of the Chair of Macroeconomics of ASUE, PhD in Economics
NAREK KARAPETYAN
PhD Student of the Chair of Finance of ASUE
LUSINE MKHITARYAN
PhD in Economics
Public Debt Sustainability Problems in the RA. Public debt became an issue of special importance in the Republic of Armenia after 2020, when government debt to GDP ratio surpassed 60% threshold of the fiscal rule. The authors discuss the possibilities of ensuring debt sustainability In Armenia -investigating its macroeconomic effects, designing medium term scenarios and implementing macro-fiscal stress tests. The research showed that debt has a limited negative impact on the macroeconomic situation, and the growth and exchange rate shocks can make debt unsustainable, which Implies that a debt consolidation Is a must - combined with Improvement of the share of dram dominated instruments in the debt portfolio.
Key words: fiscal rules, solvency, liquidity, scenario analysis, stress tests. JEL: E47, O11
DOI: 10.52174/1829-0280_2021_2_32
