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JEL: E47, 011
DOI: 10.52174/1829-0280_2021_2_32
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; Sb'u IMF. World Economic Outlook, April 2021: Managing Divergent Recoveries.
https://www.lmf.org/en/Publlcatlons/WEO/lssues/2021/03/23/world-economlc-outlook-aprll-2021:
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4 Sb'u Salsman R., The political economy of public debt: three centuries of theory and evidence. Edward Elgar Publishing, 2017, t"2 3-6:
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5 tuiilhp <jmii (Hume D. (1752 [1987]), Of public credit, in E.F. Miller (ed.), Essays Moral, Political and Literary, Indianapolis, IN: Liberty Fund), Ui>uiil Uil|ip (Smith A. (1776 [1937]), Of public debts, Book V, Chapter III In An Inquiry Into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, New York: Modern Library), chuti Punn|uun Ubj (Say J.-B. (1803 [1821]), Of national debt, Chapter IX In Book II of A Treatise on Political Economy, 1st American edition, Philadelphia, PA: Claxton, Remsen and Haffelfinger), T-uiilhp r>|il|wnin (Rlcardo D. (1817 [1951]), in P. Sraffra (ed.), On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation. The Works and Correspondence of David Rlcardo, Vol. I, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.), <Huip[ Uuipgu (Marx K. (1867 [1887]), Genesis of the industrial capitalist, Vol. I, Part 8, Chapter XXXI In Das Capital, Moscow: Progress Publishers, t"2 533-40), Ljnii>il|iq >-Lnii U|iqtui (Mlses L. von (1949), Human Action: A Treatise on Economics, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press), Sbjilu Pjmgbtibti (Buchanan J.M. (1958 [1999]), Public Principles of Public Debt: A Defense and Restatement, Indianapolis, IN: Liberty Fund.), Dji^uipii •-Luiqtibp (Wagner R.E. (2012a), Deficits, Debt and Democracy: Wrestling With Tragedy on the Fiscal Commons, Cheltenham, UK and Northampton, MA, USA: Edward Elgar Publishing. Wagner R.E. (2012b), Democracy and), fd-niluiu T||il|tun|i (Plketty, T. (2014), The question of the public debt, Chapter 16 In Capital in the Twenty-First Century, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.) IL wj|p:
b finti Ubjtiuipi} -£bjtiu (Keynes J.M. (1936), The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, London: Macmlllan), U.[il|iti <uitiubti (Hansen A.H. (1959), The public debt reconsidered: a review article, Review of Economics and Statistics, 41(4), 370-78), Uppui Lbptibp (Lerner A.P. (1943), Functional finance and the federal debt, Social Research, 10(1), 38-51), ''lni Uuiiinib[unti (Samuelson P. (1948), Economics, An Introductory Analysis, New York: McGraw-Hill), ftnpbpin Puippn (Barro R.J. (1979), On the determination of the public debt, Journal of Political Economy, 87(5), 940-47. Barro R.J. (1980), Federal deficit policy), ilni iipmqiiuiii (Krugman P. (1988), Financing versus forgiving a debt overhang, Journal of Development Economics, 29(3), 253-68) II
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7 Sbjilu Upjniuipp (Steuart J. (1767 [1966]), in A. Skinner (ed.), An Inquiry into the Principles of Political Economy, Edinburgh: Oliver & Boyd Ltd), ULibguuitiiip <uui|i[pnti (Hamilton A. (1790a), Report on the Public Credit, January, accessed August 29, 2016 at
https://www.schlllerinstltute.org/economy/2015/ hamilton- first_report_on_the_public_credlt.pdf.), <uipi|i Ljnig (Lutz H.L. (1945), Debt, taxation and functional finance, Chapter XIII In Guideposts for a Free Economy: A Series of Essays on Enterprise), ftnpbpin Uuitii^bi (Mundell R.A. (1960), The public debt, corporate Income taxes and the rate of interest, Journal of Political Economy, 68(6), 622-6), llppi-up Lw$bp (Victor A. Canto, Douglas H. Jolnes, and Arthur B. Laffer, Foundations of Supply-Side Economics - Theory and Evidence (New York: Academic Press, 1982) L wj|£>:
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8 Sb'u Bouabdallah O., Checherita-Westphal C. D., Warmedinger T., De Stefani R., Drudi F., Setzer R., Westphal A., Debt Sustainability Analysis for Euro Area Sovereigns: A Methodological Framework. ECB Occasional Paper, 2017, tg 185:
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10 Sb'u Chalk N.. Hemming R., Assessing fiscal sustainablllty in theory and practice. In Fiscal Sustainabil ity Conference, 2000, t"2 61:
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11 Sb'u Bohn H., The behavior of US public debt and deficits, the Quarterly Journal of economics, 1998, 113(3), tg 949-963:
12 Sb'u Ghosh A. R., Kim J. I., Mendoza E. G., Ostry J. D., Qureshl M. S., Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies. The Economic Journal, 123(566), 2013, F4-F30:
1:: Sb'u Siddharth T. S., Staff Guidance Note for Public Debt Sustainability Analysis In Market-Access Countries, 2013, https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/050913.pdf.
14 Sb'u IMF (December 2020). Third Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Supplement; And Statement by the Alternate Executive Director for the Republic Of Armenia Country Report No. 20/318:
15 Sb'u CC ^>|nljujbubbp|i buj[uujpujpnL[ajnLb (2019). « L|ujnujL[ujpnL[ajujb mujpmg|n l|wjnibnL|ajwb i[bp[nL&nL|C*JnLb. w2fuwmwbj2wj|ib i|nwumw|anLr[ia.
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URL: http://www.njd-iscience.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/NJD_49_2.pdf
20 IMF (2013). Staff Guidance Note for Public Debt Sustainability Analysis in Market-Access Countries. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Policy-Papers/Issues/2016/12/31/Staff-Guidance-Note-for- Public-Debt-Sustainablllty-Analysls-in-Market-Access-Countrles-PP4771:
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КАРЕН ГРИГОРЯН
Заведующий кафедрой макроэкономики АГЭУ, кандидат экономических наук, доцент
ГАЯ НЕ АВАГЯН
Доцент кафедры макроэкономики АГЭУ, кандидат экономических наук
НАРЕК КАРАПЕТЯН
Аспирант кафедры финансов АГЭУ
ЛУСИНЕ МХИТАРЯН
Кандидат экономических наук
Проблемы устойчивости государственного долга
РА.- Проблема стабильности государственного долга в Армении приобретает особое значение в 2020 году, когда соотношение государственного долга к ВВП превысило 60%-ный порог бюджетного правила. Авторы обсуждают возможности обеспечения устойчивости долга в Армении, исследуя ее макроэкономические эффекты, разрабатывая среднесрочные сценарии и применяя макрофискальные стресс-тесты. Исследование показало, что долг имеет ограниченное негативное влияние на макроэкономическую ситуацию, а шоки экономического роста и обменного курса могут сделать долг неустойчивым, что подразумевает необходимость консолидации долга в сочетании с увеличением доли драмовых инструментов в долговом портфеле.
Ключевые слова: бюджетные правила, платежеспособность, ликвидность, сценарный анализ, стресс-тесты.
ШЬ: Е47, 011
001: 10.52174/1829-0280_2021_2_32
KAREN GRIGORYAN
Head of the Chair of Macroeconomics of ASUE, PhD in Economics, Associate Professor
GAYANE AVAGYAN
Associate Professor of the Chair of Macroeconomics of ASUE, PhD in Economics
NAREK KARAPETYAN
PhD Student of the Chair of Finance of ASUE
LUSINE MKHITARYAN
PhD in Economics
Public Debt Sustainability Problems in the RA. Public debt became an issue of special importance in the Republic of Armenia after 2020, when government debt to GDP ratio surpassed 60% threshold of the fiscal rule. The authors discuss the possibilities of ensuring debt sustainability In Armenia -investigating its macroeconomic effects, designing medium term scenarios and implementing macro-fiscal stress tests. The research showed that debt has a limited negative impact on the macroeconomic situation, and the growth and exchange rate shocks can make debt unsustainable, which Implies that a debt consolidation Is a must - combined with Improvement of the share of dram dominated instruments in the debt portfolio.
Key words: fiscal rules, solvency, liquidity, scenario analysis, stress tests. JEL: E47, O11
DOI: 10.52174/1829-0280_2021_2_32
