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https://doi.org/10.29013/EJEMS-20-2-38-48
Wang Yi Nan, Corresponding author, Vice Professor of Economics, College of Economics and Management, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin China E-mail: yinanwang@sina.com Romanova Varvara, Master of International Trade College of Economics and Management, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin China E-mail: veenera9@yandex.ru
PRELIMINARY RESEARCH ON THE ISSUES OF ATTRACTING CHINESE INVESTMENTS TO RUSSIA'S FAR EAST INFRASTRUCTURE
Abstract. Sino-Russian relations are an important factor in the development of the Far East region of Russia. This study analyses the current situation of investments in the Far East region of Russia, what share of investments account for China and why infrastructure is important for the development of the region, especially the transport sector. Issues of attracting investments to the region and possible recommendations are also reviewed.
Keywords: Russia, Far East, China, infrastructure, investment, FDI
1. Introduction In this paper the author tries to analyze the im-
The development of Russia's Far East has been portance of investments in the infrastructure sector, a top priority since 2013 making efforts to qualita- obstacles and issues in attracting these investments tively improve the living environment and business and discusses why China is a favored investor. climate to get away from the image of a problem re- 2. Literature review gion, and lagging periphery of Russia that is losing its 2.1 Foreign direct investment. Definition population. "Now we see the future of the Far East as The International Monetary Fund defines for-it is one of the key centers of social and economy de- eign direct investment (FDI) as "a category of inter-velopment of Russia, the place that should be effec- national investment that reflects the objective of a tively integrated into rapidly developing Asia Pacific resident in one economy obtaining a lasting interest region Expanding economic freedom and providing in an enterprise resident in another economy. The investors with the best conditions for doing business lasting interest implies the existence of a long-term is our top priority" stated Vladimir Putin [1]. relationship between the direct investor and the di-
A number of successful investment projects have rect investment enterprise, and a significant degree been implemented in the Far East of Russia, but the of influence by the investor on the management of pace of investment growth is still insufficient to im- the enterprise" [2].
plement the potential of the region. In order to effec- 2.2 The Far East of Russia. General information tively integrate, modern cross-border and developed The Far Eastern Federal District (FEFD) is the larg-infrastructure is necessary. est of 8 federal districts in Russia, comprising 11 federal
subjects, equaling to a territory of 6,952,600 km2 and making up 40.6% of Russia's territory. Yet, being the least populated district with only 8,188,600 people, amounting to 5,6% of Russia's population. The gross regional product (GRP) equals to 43805 billion rubles which is 5.8% of GRP of the Russian Federation [3].
Numerous unique logistic opportunities, as well as proximity of the global market ofAsia-Pacific Region (APR) countries (55% of the world's population), significantly increase the investment attractiveness of the region. The region has the largest reserve of mineral resources in the country and the Far Eastern basin holds third place in Russia judging by the freight turnover of marine transport, which equals to about 25% of the total Russian freight turnover. Those are only some of many factors appealing to investors [4; 5].
Since December 2014, infrastructure support and institutional systems for implementing investment projects had been created, some of which include tax and administrative benefits of Advanced Special Economic Zones (ASEZ) and Free Port of Vladivostok (FPV) regimes [3].
Among the 11 federal subjects, "Primorye is one of the most desirable locations for conducting business in the Far East. The territory has a significant proportion of the ASEZ and FPV residents in the macro-region, largely due to its favorable geographical position, accessibility to sea, air and land transport as well as its strong scientific and technological potential" as stated by the Director of Primorye ASEZ Management Vasily Bolshakov [6].
All of the above mentioned, make the Far East region of Russia a favorable and pleasant region to invest in. Although there are still many issues to why the Far Eastern Federal district isn't receiving the needed amount of investments.
2.3 Review of studies conducted on similar subjects
Below are examples of scientific works, the subject of which is similar to the subject of this article.
In 2017, Li Xiaolong discussed the strategies and prospects of Chinese investment in the construction
industry of Russia through "One Belt One Road" initiative. In the author's opinion, the strategy and the presence of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in Russia can solve the financing gap in the development of Russia's infrastructure and indirectly improve the domestic investment environment, as well as help reduce unemployment in Russia and will enable the introduction of advanced technologies, without influencing Russia's leadership in Central Asia. The author highlights, that China has sufficient capital and technology for long-term and stable investment in infrastructure construction [7].
Based on Qin Dong's paper in 2018, some of the key reasons why the Far East doesn't have more major Chinese investment projects implemented are:
• The richest region of China is the South where much more financial resources are concentrated, but it is also the furthest from the Far East of Russia;
• In 2014, due to a huge amount of debt on provincial and municipal levels resulting from ill-conceived, inefficient and high-risk investments, Chinese investment policy has become more cautious;
• From the point of view of Chinese investors, the problem of bureaucracy and administrative inefficiency is very acute in Russia;
• A large number of Chinese businessmen often complain about the inconsistency and variability of legal acts established by the Russian authorities;
• The low amount ofpopulation in FEFD implies a limited market and low domestic demand.
In order to attract more major investments from China, the author concludes that central and local authorities should actively improve the investment environment, accelerate the construction of infrastructure, implement policies of preferences and spread information on the development of the Far East to a broader range [8].
In 2019, Dhananjay S. in his article addresses the rise of Chinese domination in Central Asia and on
the other hand, Russia's struggle to maintain its influence. Conflicting territorial claims between China and Russia in the Russian Far East (RFE) and the possibility of them arising if China increases its impact in the RFE are also discussed. The author concludes that there are possibilities of India becoming a strategic partner of Russia, while weakening Chinese influence. In Dhananjay S.'s opinion, Russia and China have diverging interests which may become more apparent in the future. Thus, Russia should use the politico-economic opportunity to improve relations with the West [9].
In 2019, Hirofumi A. conducted a preliminary assessment on the performance of ASEZ and the FPV. The author states a number of facts revealed during his assessment, namely that the number of residents is higher in FPV than in ASEZ; there is a big difference among ASEZ's in terms of the registered residents' quantity. In addition, the author did not find any evidence to confirm that both ASEZ and FPV successfully promote the export-oriented manufacturing industry, that the government anticipated while preparing the two instruments. Although, the research revealed the enthusiasm to develop various service businesses and statistics of total number of residents demonstrate positive dynamics, which altogether suggests promising prospects [10].
In 2019, Ma Yujun and Denis V. Suslovs paper highlighted urban infrastructure (being number one), local energy and high technologies as promising sectors of the FEFD economy for Chinese investors. The authors concluded, that to maintain close economic relations, not only on the basis of trade partnerships, it is important to further improve the institutional regimes on both sides of the border, which is currently being implemented: by the continuation of the construction of ASEZs in the Russian Far East and the implementation of the Free Trade Zone Plan in Heilongjiang Province, China [11].
The authors of the above-mentioned works analyze the influence and situation of Chinese invest-
ments in Russia and the Far East, as well as identify some problems and recommend some proposals to solve them.
In this paper, data was summarized and applied using different methods of collection, then reviewed immediately for the years 2017-2019. While there has been much research recently on Chinese investment in Russia and the Far East in general, few researches have taken into consideration the issues of attracting investments aimed at infrastructure and why these investments are in acute need in the FEFD. This work will try to identify and fill gaps in related research fields.
3. Methodology and Data
3.1 Methodology
In order to have a better understanding of the topic, this paper will address the overall importance, issues and recommendations for overcoming identified problems of attracting Chinese infrastructure investments to the Far East region of Russia. Secondary data, as well as qualitative and quantitative approaches, were used to research and analyze these issues. Official scientific journals, government reports, official statistics, financial sources, analytical reviews, official journal articles and other sources were used to obtain secondary data, the purpose of which is to research and analyze the existing information. The secondary data was collected in English, Russian and Chinese languages. The author conducted an analysis for 2014-2020 years.
Using various approaches for collecting data, the main objectives pursued by the author were to:
1. Study the general situation of FDI in the Far East region;
2. Identify the demand and understand the importance for infrastructure investments in the Far East region;
3. Determine the current state of Chinese FDI to the Far East region;
4. Study the measures of implementation;
5. Analyze what factors affect China's investment in the Far East infrastructure.
3.2 Data collection
The data are collected through well-known Internet resources such as The Ministry for the Development of the Russian Far East, Far East Development Corporation, Far East Investment And Export Agency, Information Analytical Agency "East of Russia", InfraONE Research, The Roscongress Foundation, Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, Russian Federal State Statistics Service, National Bureau of Statistics of China, World Economic Forum, UNCTAD and other information sources based on specialized journals, scientific articles, expert opinions, etc.
4. Data analysis
4.1 General situation of investment in the Far East of Russia
According to research conducted by InfraONE Research agency, the FEFD receives the lowest share of investments among other federal subjects and receives almost no subsidies for creating infrastructure [13].
The region's economy remains the penultimate in the country, even with the appearance of 2 new
subjects in the district. According to the results of "The Socio-economic situation of federal subjects of Russia 2018 rating", the average value of the integral index of the subjects in the FEFD was 32.13 points, which is lower than the average value among all 85 regions. At the same time, in 2018, the integral index increased in all FEFD's subjects. This situation only increases the demand for investments, especially in infrastructure [12].
In 2018, the district received only 9.22 billion rubles for capital investments in state property, where compared to Crimea, the amount was 58.8 billion rubles. In the same year, the FDI was at a minimum level during an eight-year period, amounting to $5.5 billion in nominal terms. As seen on Figure 1, their share of all incoming Russian investments was $140.4 billion which is only 3.9%, reaching the level of the years 2013 and 2011, where the FDI was lowest. The highest peak of FDI in the FEFD during the eight years in monetary terms and as a share of total Russian FDI was in 2016 and equaled to 8.4% or $11.6 billion.
Figure 1. Incoming FDI of Russia
According to the Central Bank, from 2009 to 2018, foreign investors invested $69.9 billion in the Far East. In the vast majority of cases, they buy a share in equity, where equity financing amounts to 93.8% or $72.5 billion, and the remaining 6.2% accounts for debt instruments. Infrastructure investments account for the minimum amount of foreign investment. Over ten years,
and the Far East's share [13]
only $89 million fell into construction from abroad and in 2018 the outflow of capital of construction companies amounted to $12 million in the region [13].
4.2 Importance and demand for infrastructure investments in the Far East of Russia
The Far East, according to "The spatial development strategy of the Russian Federation for the period
until 2025", is a priority geostrategic territory which is significant for the development, territorial integrity and security of the country. Russia's eastern territories have always been and still remain the principal storehouse of Russia, where the bulk of mineral resources are concentrated, from rare metals to the necessities of oil and natural gas. The majority of marine resources are caught in the eastern seas, while Far Eastern forests provide the majority of the country's timber. A colossal volume of exports and imports pass through Far-Eastern ports to Asia-Pacific countries.
Therefore, the proximity of the world's most developed economies is another factor influencing the Far East's significance for Russia [14] and although FEFD plays the role of a transit region, if compared, it is still in the shadow of its rapidly growing neighbors such as China, Japan and South Korea. These factors don't allow the region's significant potential to be used at its fullest extent [4].
The region's support requires large resources -financial, human, technological. As a large territory with a low population density, harsh climate and a
low starting level of infrastructure development it also needs to be approached with specific management.
According to research done by InfraONE Research, Figure 2 shows the FEFD infrastructural development against the all-Russian level. To calculate the figure, the company assessed the state of the transport, energy, utilities, social and telecommunications infrastructure of the regions. That is, those industries that are present in all regions of the Federation without exception and which affect the development of the economy and the standard of living of people.
Currently, the FEFD's indexes are very close to the average index, however the share of the investments of the Far Eastern regions in all-Russian investment expenditures is less than 8%. The Far East dominates only in the social field, where the average district index is 5.68 against the Russian average index of 5.42, yet that seems to be a formality, as for a number of the region's subjects it was caused by the out-migration in 2018, rather than the development of new infrastructure.
Figure 2. Comparison of sectoral and integral infrastructure development indices of Russia overall and the Far East, 2019 [13]
Below, (Table 1) composed by the author based on research calculations submitted by InfraONE Research, shows that in 2019 the infrastructure development integral indexes for all FEFD's 11 federal subjects have decreased compared to 2018,
denoting that the region doesn't have sufficient resources to support and develop infrastructure. To note, throughout Russia, Dagestan has the lowest integral index of 4.14 and Moscow the highest of 7.74.
Moreover, the estimated amount of regional with the expenses in 2020. Such a big difference in
budget expenses for 2020 is not enough to meet the amounts only proves, once again that the region
minimum investment requirements, which mostly needs to attract investments from outside for normal
should be increased by 2 times, although some by functioning, satisfying the needs and infrastructure
4 and others as much as 6 times, if being compared development in the FEFD.
Table 1. - The infrastructure development index of the Far East Federal District's federal subjects and their minimum additional needs, 2019 [13]
Federal subject Infrastructure development integral index among all Russian regions Integral index in comparison with 2018 "+" increased / decreased Regional budget infrastruc-tural expenses in 2018, RUB bln Forecast of regional budget infrastructural expenses for 2020, RUB bln Minimum additional need, RUB bln
Chukotka Autonomous Area 6.02 -0.12 3.4 3.7 3.9
Sakhalin Region 5.81 -0.11 26.3 32.4 16
Magadan Region 5.81 -0.23 0.9 2.3 9.4
Kamchatka Territory 5.78 -0.24 8 8.7 5.6
Khabarovsk Territory 5.73 -0.11 18.8 18 24.2
Primorye Territory 5.45 -0.21 8.7 11.2 37.8
Amur Region 5.29 -0.23 4.5 5.4 13.1
Jewish Autonomous Region 5.24 -0.14 0.5 1 6.2
Trans-Baikal Territory 5.11 -0.09 3.6 4.8 16.5
Buryatia 4.84 -0.22 6.4 7.4 7.4
Yakutia 4.80 -0.02 12.4 17.6 40.1
The least developed infrastructure sector in the FEFD is transport, with a development index that increased the gap between the rest of Russia to 2.90 in 2018 (Figure 2), compared to 2.99 in 2017. This indicator is worse than that of all other federal subjects in Russia.
Figure 3 shows that transport infrastructure is developed below the Russian average level in a total number of 8 federal subjects out of11.
The fact that the Far East's proximity to the APR opens up additional opportunities for increasing exports to APR countries, which have a certain demand
for products from the EAEU, only supports the importance of developing transport infrastructure in the region. In reality, the Far East receives almost no subsidies for creating infrastructure. In 2018, the district received only 9.22 billion rubles for capital investments in state property, where for example, Crimea received 58.8 billion rubles. Although the government is trying to independently provide subsidies, they are still not enough [13].
As a main element in "The Federal budget for 2019 and for the planned period 2020 and 2021", the Ministry of Finance of The Russian Federation issued
a Comprehensive Plan for the modernization and expansion of the main infrastructure, and prioritize the state policy in the field of transport in 2019-2021 by accelerating and high-quality development of transport infrastructure. The transport implementation part of the Comprehensive Plan will contribute to an increase in the "Transport Infrastructure Quality Index" by 15.5% over 6 years, compared to 2017 [15]. Nonetheless, since Russia plans to invest about 6.3% of annual GDP in the infrastructure plan and spend
about 1% annually, in total equating to the level of developed countries, the majority of investments in projects that are already included in the comprehensive plan and have a geographic reference will fall on the Central Federal District, where as the FEFD so far will receive expenses of only 168 billion rubles, which is no more than 3% and 3rd lowest amount compared with other federal subjects, meaning the quality of infrastructure will still be significantly lagging in the region.
Figure 3. Quantity of federal subjects in the Far East Federal district and types of infrastructure developed below Russian average level [13]
The minimum additional infrastructure demand for the Far East in 2019-2021 is about 150-180 billion rubles, or about 5-6% of the needs of all of Russia, according to InfraONE Research. After 2021, the minimum need for the FEFD is likely to grow by 12-15% annually, and for development the district will need 350-355 billion rubles of investments by 2022 [13]. 4.3 Chinese investments in the Russian Far East China is considered a very important strategic partner of Russia and is one of the founding states of the Asian Bank for Infrastructure Investment and the 21st Century Silk Road global economic belt. The current development stage of investment cooperation between Russia and China is characterized by a fast growth rate in quantitative and qualitative terms and is supported by the leadership of the two countries [16].
Without the creation of basic infrastructure, the economic development of the FEFD will be impossible. Russia's FEFD as China's neighbor with 4300 km
of common borders, is located on the logistic territory between the two countries, so transport interchanges are very important. Without transport infrastructure it is impossible to fully utilize the opportunities for cooperation in the region.
China ranks 28th overall among 141 counties in the Global Competitiveness Report, and is by far the best performer among the BRICS economies, respectively 15 places ahead of the Russian Federation. China's infrastructure performance ranks 36th compared to Russia's at 50th [17]. Chinese outward investments in 2017-2018 equaled to 130 billion dollars, yielding to Japan in first place and followed by France [18]. Thus, becoming one of the most significant players in the international investment market, proves China is a desirable investor in the FEFD having advantages in financial, technical, human and other resources.
Even though China is the largest investor in the region among other countries, as stated in October
2019 by the Far East Investment and Export Agency (FEIEA) investment director, it prefers to keep its distance. 49 projects are being implemented with the participation of investors from China with a total volume of $2.7 billion in the ASEZ's and the FPV and another 40 investment projects worth more than $23 billion are under preparation. The share ofinvest-ments is 59.1% ofthe total number of foreign projects in the Special Economic Zones (SEZ) [19]. Thus, the overall volume of FDI from China is growing rather slowly and is subject to volatility, Russia's share in China's FDI rarely exceeded 1%, in 2017 it equaled to 0.08% with China's total FDI outflow of $158 billion, and in the first half of 2019 amounted to 0.15% with China's total FDI outflow of $125 billion [20].
"All these large projects need appropriate transport and other infrastructure - roads, energy, related industries, etc. We also suggest that Chinese companies consider participating in large infrastructure projects already underway" a representative of the FEIEA stressed [19].
In the course of a study by IPT Group, according to market participants, natural resources and the degree of infrastructure development are the main factors of attractiveness of the Russian market for Chinese investors [21]. This is confirmed in practice, where in 2017 investments were focused on natural resources and the creation of transport infrastructure [22]; 14 projects in the FEFD in 2019-2020, launched or with negotiations underway, are in the transport infrastructure sector.
According to InfraONE Research, investments in the infrastructure of the FEFD in the next 2-3 years are expected to grow by no more than 15%, which was explained by the lack ofhigh-quality projects and the inactivity of local authorities in an attempt to attract money from abroad. It is assumed, that the potential of China's investments in Russian infrastructure for the next two years is 315-385 billion rubles, even taking into account the shortage of quality projects, and the Far East will claim only a quarter of this money [13].
4.4 Measures implemented to attract investments to the FEFD
Attracting APR's investments to the FEFD is a difficult task that cannot be addressed without offering some preferences to foreign investors. Such preferential regimes improve the attractiveness of the Russian Far East for foreign investors [14]. Therefore, the Federal Government implemented policy mechanisms to develop the Far Eastern economy by attracting investments. Below, the author has listed all measures implemented, which in his opinion are indicative of positive affect.
Preferential regimes of FEFD improve the attractiveness of the Russian Far East for foreign investors, where the up to date declared investments on behalf of these investors amount to RUB217.7 bn (or 7.5% of the total volume of the investment portfolio). Companies from China, Japan and South Korea express great interest in working in the Far East. Investors are putting money into the manufacturing, agriculture, construction and service sectors [14].
On 29 December 2014, the President of Russia Vladimir Putin signed the law "On Advanced Special Economic Zones" and in 2015 the Free Port ofVladi-vostok was introduced. Prior to this moment, in the entire history of modern Russia, the state had never provided any special conditions for developing any of its territories. The ASEZ preferential regime is becoming the main instrument for increasing the flow of investment into the region's economy. The institutions supporting economic development in the Russian Far East, along with relevant authorities, are constantly searching for new residents [5]. Currently, 83 companies among the ASEZ and FPV residents, about 6% of the total, have foreign participation
The Eastern Economic Forum (EEF), was established in 2015 to support the economic development of Russia's Far East and to expand international cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region, is held annually in Vladivostok.
The Far East Development Corporation (FEDC) is a management company that exercises all state
authority within the ASEZ, and FPV. According to the survey results, 55-56% of residents consider the FEDC's work to be excellent, while the corporation's average evaluation score is 4.4 [14].
The Far East Investment and Export Agency (FEIEA) is one of the development institutions of the Far East, whose tasks are to attract new investors to the FEFD [19].
The draft National Program for the Development of the Far East until 2025 was presented by the Ministry for the Development of the Russian Far East and Arctic in September 2019. As planned, this document should not intersect with national projects and the Comprehensive Plan, which means that the Far Eastern regions have a chance to get additional funds for the economy, social sphere and infrastructure.
International development banks seem to have become more interested in Russia infrastructure projects. Among them are the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), the BRICS New Development Bank (NDB), the International Investment Bank (IIB) and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). The number of projects in which these organizations participated and have been launched in the region is several times higher than in previous years [13].
5. Discussion and conclusion
5.1 Limitations
The main aim of the paper was to analyze the issues and factors of attracting Chinese investments to the Far East region of Russia. Although the study conducted a thorough survey, the study has potential limitations. It is expected that these points will help future researchers to avoid facing the same shortcomings. The first was that prior research studies that are relevant to this research topic were limited. The second limitation concerns information assessment derived from certain statistic bases. Further investigation is required in order to properly assess the factors and their impact. Therefore, the empirical results reported herein should be considered in the light of some limitations.
5.2 Discussion
During the study, with the above-mentioned statistics derived from official registries, several issues and factors regarding the attraction of Chinese infrastructure investments to the FEFD were identified. The following are some discussions on these issues.
Certain unattractive characteristics of the region such as large territory together with low population density, penultimate economy in the country, requirement of additional financial, human and technological resources, harsh climate and low infrastructure development certainly do not make an attractive region for investors at first glance.
Problems associated with the institutional climate in Russia still arise, even though SEZ were created in the region and other measures have been implemented, the legislation needs improvement.
Sanctions are a major problem for Russia, as they increase uncertainty and political risks, and also significantly affect the country's economy due to changes in the exchange rate and interest rates, as well as capital outflows, all of which doesn't help attract investments to the country, let alone to the less developed Far East.
Quite possibly, previous territorial disputes between China and Russia in the Russian Far East may be a factor of China maintaining a distance, as investments imply having a long-term influence by the investor, which may not be the best situation to be in, if issues concerning the territories arise again.
Even though China holds the biggest share of investments in the region, has the largest number of projects underway and implemented among other country investors, during the last 4 years, the overall quantity of investments in the country has dropped, but nevertheless the number of investment projects has still been increasing in the FEFD.
The percentage of infrastructure investments account for a minimum of FDI in the FEFD, the author assumes, possibly because construction projects are more difficult to implement and require a much longer time period to implement, meaning profit is also
postponed. Therefore, other investment opportunities are considered more attractive.
There may be other factors, which should be a topic for further investigation and discussion.
5.3 Conclusion
The author in this paper has tried to analyze the issues of attracting Chinese infrastructure investments to the Far East region of Russia. In summary, although the Federal Government is creating a reputation for a special territory in the Far East, the issued Comprehensive Plan for the development of main infrastructure for FEFD will provide so far no more than 3%. This means that the FEFD infrastructure is in the background for the federal authorities in broad terms. Therefore, FDI is needed since the government cannot support the needs of the region. That is where China comes into the picture, being a very attractive investor for Russia and the number one accounting for FDI in the FEFD.
Although the traditional cooperation in the field of energy and infrastructure remain one of the important elements in the relations between both countries, infrastructure is the least favorable choice of all FDI in the region. These investments are not enough to improve the overall infrastructure state
in the region. Therefore, one of the most important instruments for attracting investments to the Far East is infrastructure support of projects however, such support is issued in limited quantities and under certain conditions by the government, along with other numerous disadvantages.
Joint conferences in all areas and at all levels with knowledge on legislation, and how investors may benefit from the region's potential and development concerning infrastructure investments, those which clearly increase the overall development and attractiveness of the region, may benefit for minimizing several factors, which do not allow a steady growth of FDI in the infrastructure segment. Other than that, since it would be important to increase the flow of FDI, it cannot be done without the federal support.
However, the government nonetheless continues to increase the relevance of the region's development in state documents and introduce various measures, mechanisms and institutions and carry out activities, the future of the Far Eastern Federal District looks promising in terms of developing infrastructure, improving the quality and standard of living, business conditions and climate and the amount of foreign investments, including those from China.
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