ОЦЕНКА ВЛИЯНИЯ МЕЖДУНАРОДНЫХ ПОТОКОВ КАПИТАЛА НА ЭКОНОМИКУ РАЗВИВАЮЩИХСЯ СТРАН Текст научной статьи по специальности «Экономика и бизнес»

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шúpf^nûf^ шuщ|^pшûл

aunausna °nínü°nh süsbun-©3nhüübnh anu MuähSuLh

0hauQQu3hü <nUßbnh ua0bsnhß3uü Qüu<usn-0G

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<|úùшpшßbp■ ф|ûшûuшL|шû hшúpûphшûpшgnLÚ, ф|ûшûuшL|шû áqûшdшú, On-Ъ, шpdnLJß| фn[uшpdbJ, ú|2шqqшJ|û щшhnLUлûbp, !ш-црлшф hnujbpÇ ЦшéшЦшpnLÚ

JEL: F3, E44, G15

b|ûmûum!mû hmdpGphmGpmgdmG mppjmGjnLd gmûLmgmô bpLpnLÚ ûbpj|û ûbpppnLdûbpp шф[| LmË^ônLpjmû ú»2 bû hrnjuGlmü

ûbpj|û ËûwjnqnLpjnLÛûbp|g: Чшщ|лш[| dlçmqqmjlû hnujbpp 2шл bpLpûbp| pnLj[ bû um[|u ûbppûb[ U u^m^b mlb[| 2шл, jmû mpumppnLÚ

bù' úbpúnLÓbiní шл bpïpùbpÇg; Ujmuùbpù ti шЦЬ^ 2шт ^ш^-

ШШ1 nLÙbù, ршй ^pnrç bù Ц1ш0»1 U ^ш ùbprçùmù bù omшpbpÏpJШ ш^т^Ц-ùbpmù; SùmbuшqÇmnLpJШù mbunLpjnLÙp Uu hшumшmnLй t, np h^ùpùrç-qpÏnLÙ pшpbïbgnLpJnLÙp úшùuÇúшlшgЦnLÚ t, bpp шqшm 2шpd-

Цтй t uшhúшùùbpnЦ, Çuï ШJ^ 2шpdÁ t DÙrçnLÙnrç bpïpùbpmù

pшpbùщшum úÇ2шЦшJpÇ Ó^ínpnLÜ; UpnjnLÙpnLÙ' ùbprçpnrçp ^шй ФПЁШ-énLÙ, npnßnLÜ ïшJшgùblnЦ, ^pnrç t Ш2ËшphÇ pninp фÇùшùuшïшù 2nL^ùb-pÁ ^Çmшpïbl np^bu ùbï шúpn^2nLpJШù; PшJg йÇ2шqqшJÇù ^^p^^ní фnrçbpÇ ШJU 2шpdÁ hшùqbgùnLÚ t ùшU bpïpùbpÇ nL mшpшáш2p2шùùbpç mùmbunLpjnLÙùbpÇ шùïшJnLÙшgúшÙÁ, шpdnLpшJÇù щшmbpшqйùbpÇ, qшp-mùmbunLpjnLÙùbpÇ qbpmшùшgйшÙÁ, фÇùшùuшïшù ¿qùшdшйbpÇ Ç F^jï qшlnLÙ; Uju mbuшùÏJnLÙÇg, hшйш2ËшphшJÇù фÇùшùuшïшù hnupbpp щшJúшùшЦnpnLÚ bù hшÚÁÙrçhшùpшgúшù pшgшuшïшù hbmUшùùùbpÁ; 0Çç-шqqшJÇù фÇùшùuшïшù hnupbpÇ ШJù йшuÁ, npp t шщpшùùùbpÇ nL

^^jnLpjnLÙùbpÇ úÇ2шqqшJÇù 2шpdÇ uщшuшpïйшù, Çù^bu ùшU Oàôû-ùb-pÇ hbm, rçpшïшùnpbù t шùrçpшrçшRùnLÚ шqqшJÇù mùmbunLpjnLùùbpÇ qшp-qшgúшù Цpш: PшJg qnjnLpjnLù nLùÇ ùшU ШJU фn^bpÇ шл' n¿ щшïшu ^pUnp úшu, npp 2P2ШùшßЦnLÚ t ЦbpшqqшJÇù úшïшp^шïnЦ; Пш, ШJUщbu «шpшq Цш^тш^» t ^шй «тшр фnrçbpÁ»; Пpшùg bù ЦbpшpbpnLÚ ^p^-¿шй^т pшùïшJÇù ^p^bpp, шpdbp^pbpnLÚ щnpmфblШJÇù ùbprçpmùùbpp, ÁÙïbpnLpJШù шpdbp^pbpnLй ïшp¿шdшйïbm ùbprçpmùùbpp (щшpmшmnй-ubp, ùnLph^ïùbp);

Uju «тшр фnrçbpÁ», Ùbô 0ШцШ1Пц 2P2ШùшßЦblnЦ bpïpùbpÇ ùÇçU, ^p-¿шdшйïbm ùbprçpйшù шpп.JnLÙùnLй qpbpb ¿bù bùpшpïЦnLй umnLjq ф^ш^ш-qpшïшù qùшhшmйшù, ùÇUùnLjù dшйшùшï, Çpbùg бшЦш^Ц 2,5-3 шùqшй qbpшqшùgnLй bù Цш^тш^ 2шpdÇ bpïшpшdшйïbm ÔUbpp; Uù^jmùnL-PJШù gшùïшgшá Ù2ШÙÇ шßïшJnLpJШù rçb^pnLÙ «тшр фnrçbpÁ» ùbprçpйшù opjb^mp iùnLÙ bù ШJÙщÇuÇ шpшqnLpJшйp, Çù^ÇuÇ шpшqnLpJшйp Ôbé£ bù pbpinLÙ; Up^jnLùpnLÙ шЦЬ^ ш^Ь^т t ^éùmù hшйш2ËшphшJÇù фÇùшù-uшïшù hшйшïшpqÇ фËpnLÙnLpJnLÙÁ, npÇg, pùшïшùшpшp, шгсшЦ» mnLdnLй bù pnLji mùmbunLpJшйp bpïpùbpp; UÇ2шqqшJÇù фÇùшùuшïшù hшmЦшáÇ шùïшJnLÙnLpJnLÙÁ qlnpшlшgйшù щшJйшùùbpnLй шßШ2Çù шùqшй rçpuUnpibg 1980^^ù pp. LшmÇùшïшù UùbpÇ^jmù; UpmшpÇù ïшp¿шdшйïbm ^p-ÏшЦnpйшù nL фшpbpшJÇù (щnpmфblШJÇù) ùbprçpmùùbpÇ pnLÙp hшùqbgpbg PpшqÇlÇшJÇ, UbpuÇ^jÇ, UpqbùmÇùшJÇ, ^bùbunLb^jÇ шpmшùÇù щшpmùÇ Ш^^ äшpmùÇ uщшuшpïйшù Ц¿шpùbpù шЦblшgшù 3 шùqшй, U шïùhшJm ^шpÔшЦ, np щшpmùÇ Ц¿шpnLйÇg hpшdшpnLйÁ hшpgшïшùÇ тш^ t ^ùnLÙ qшpqшgn^ ЦшpïшßnL bpïpùbpÇ mùmbunLpJnLÙùbpÇ ïшJnLÙnLpJnLÙÁ;

199Q-шïшù pp. UpUb^ù UuÇшJÇ bpïpùbpÇ mùmbunLpJnLÙùbpÁ Uu ш^ щш2mщшù tÇù йùшgbl йÇ2шqqшJÇù фÇùшùuшïшù hnupbpÇ ^bù, Çù^Ç hb-mUшùùnЦ 1997-1998 pp. péùïibg UuÇшïшù фÇùшùuшïшù ¿qùшdшйÁ, npÇ шßш2шgйшù qnpônLÙ ùbô ^bp ùшU шpmшuшhйшÙJШù «тшр фп^Ь-

pÇ» фшËnLumÁ' ^puUnpíbiní шpdnLpшJÇù шùïшJnLÙnLpJШù шßШ2Çù Çuï ù2шùùbpç Ç h^jrn qшlnLÙ ^bu; UibiÇ nL2 ¿qùшdшйÇ tчÇÏbùmpnùnLй hшJmùЦbg ПnLUШumшÙÁ, npp, шÙ2nL2m, щшJйшùшЦnpЦшá tp ШJÙÙШÙ шuÇшïшù bpïpùbpÇ ¿qùшdшйnЦ, npùшù ùbppÇù Ëù^Çpùbpni. ^pшùg pinLÙ tÇù щbmnLpJШù huïшJШïшù щшpmùbpÁ U «щшpmùШJÇù pmpqp», Çpшïшù mùmbunLpJnLÙnLй ùbp^pnLÙùbpÇ pшgшïшJnLpJnLÙÁ, pшùïшJÇù hшйшïшpqÇ

¿Lwjwgwö ihübip L wjiü: Uju hpw^wpÖnLpjnLüübpp w^ühwjmnpbü gmjg mib-ghü, pb hü£h t hwüqbgünLü «wpwq ^n^bph» ßwpdp, L p» hü£^bu t ^w hwüwß^wphwjhü mümbunLpjwü wüLwjnLünLpjnLüübph ^wm^wrc ^wrcünLü: 2007-2012 pp. hwüwß^wphwjhü $hüwüuw^wü ¿qüwdwüp Lu gnLjg mibg, np $hüwüuw^wü ßnL|bph mwpwönLüp wjdü wibih wpwq t mbih nLübünLü L ti wibih imwüqwinp hbmLwüpübp t pniünLü mümbunLpjwü ipw, pwü üw^^^ünLÜ: pb^bm mümbuwqhmw^wü qpwLwümpjwü ü»2 $^üwüuw-Lwü hwüpü^hwüpwgüwü nL ¿qüwdwübph üh2L Lw^p ühwüßwüwL ¿h übp-Lwjwgiwö, S<QM mümbuw^wü qwpqwgüwü pwdwüünLügh üh ßwpp mümb-uwqbmübp hpbüg hbmwqnmmpjwü ü»2 hwßiwpLbi bü 1970-2007 pp. pü-pwgpnLÜ ^w^hmwih ^inpp nL ^nßnp hnupbph hbmLwüpni ¿qüwdwübph wßw2wgüwü hwiwüw^wünLpjnLüp1: <wüwÖwjü ibpnüßjwi hbmwqnmnL-pjwü ^w^hmwih ^nßnp übphnu^h 268 ^b^pbph (Lw^hmwih qnLm hnu-gbp/<bU hwpwpbpw^gnLpjwü ^wmüw^wü ühmnLÜhg LmpnLL ßbinLüübp) ünm 60%-ü wiwpmibi t ^pwüg hwü^wpöwLh ^w^wpni, L mwup ^b^phg ünm üb^ü wiwpmibi t pwü^wjhü Lwü wpdnLpwjhü ¿qüwdwüni 2: Mw^h-mwih ^npp übphnu^h hwübüwmnLpjwüp, übö hnupbph ^b^pnLü pwüLwjhü nL wpdnLpwjhü ¿qüwdwüh Lwü wj^ hnupbphü hw2np^ni hwüLwpöwLh ^w-^wph hwiwüw^wünLpjnLüp üböwünLü t 4 wüqwü:

Piuli^ujjfiL | | ^iuli^ujfiöujL|h äqüuiüujü r^uir^ujp

LjUJU|h^>LU(h ihrifiP litsphnufi LkCTiLnvSHiJV uj^uunnujLpjjqiJtT hui^tUi^lit^i

l|uiu|fiiriw|Ji dfcö bbphnuß

Qöu^umLbp 1. PwüQwjpü ni wpdnLpwjiü ¿qüwdwüft L ^¡iCiluCiüluL/luCi üpgngübpfi übphnuBfrü hwpnprtnri wnupfr hwUwüwLwünLßjnLü[f

3wü^wgwö bpLhp, npp bpb ünLjühuL üwuüwLhnpbü t wqwmw^wüwgpbi hp $hüwüuw^wü hwßhip, pw^inLü t Lw^hmwih hnupbph wüLwjnLünLpjwü ^ü^phü: Dum qöw^wm^bp 1-h Lw^hmwih übö übphnuph ^b^pnLü pwü^w-jhü ¿qüwdwüh wßw2wgüwü hwiwüw^wünLpjnLüp 10% t, huL wjü, np wj^ übphnupp Lwiwpmih hwü^wpöwLh ^w^wpn^ 45%: Mw^hmwih übö übp-hnuphü hw2np^ni hwü^wpöwLh ^w^wpp Lwü Lw^hmwih ^iw^mump hwp-gwLwüh mwL bü ^ünLü gwü^wgwö bpLph üwLpnmümbuw^wü L $hüwüuw-Lwü LwjnLünLpjnLüp. Lw^hmwih hnupbph hwü^wpöwLh ^w^wpp Lwpni t

1 Sbu Furceri D., Guichard S. and Rusticelli E., Episodes of Large Capital Inflows and the Likelihood of Banking and Currency Crises and Sudden Stops, OECD Economics Department, 2011, Working Paper, No. 865:

2 Sbu Getting the most out of International Capital flows, OECD Economic Outlook, 2011, t2 301:

3 Sbu OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2011/1, Getting the Most out of International Capital Flows, t2 301:

щшт&шгс шqqшJ|û шpdnLJp| шpdbqpïùшû, ЦшpïшЦnpúшû 0шЦш^

ûbpÇ ^¿шт^ш^ шïm|Цûbp| qûbpÇ û^q^û' шûïшJnLÛшgûblnЦ шqqшJ|û mûmbunLpjnLûp:

Qöm^mmLbp 2. РшйЦшЦй ni uipdni^lû &qûiudiuûbpfi шпшçшgúшû

hшЦшûшLшûnlpJnlûo'Цш1иЦш0Цшщ1шшф ûbphnugfr pûnijpfig4

Q■áшщшmïbp 2-Çg bpUnLÚ t, np &qûшdшùbp| ШRШ2шgùшû hшЦшûш-^û^pj^ûp ùbáшщbu ^шиЦшб t ûшU ^шщ|тш1 hnujbpÇ pûnLjpÇg: тш^ щшpm£ШJ|û hnujbpÇ ^шщр ф|ûшûuшïшû &qûшdшùbp| hbm шЦЬ^ шúnLp t, ^û ОПЬЪ-Çûp U фшpbpшJ|û ûbprçpnLÙûbpÇûp: OpшûnЦ t pш-gшmpЦnLÚ ШJû hшûqшùшû£p, np 2007-2012 pp. ф|ûшûuшmûmbuшïшû &qûшdшù| pûpшg£nLÚ rçb^Ç qшpqшgnrç 2nLÏшûbpnЦ bpLpûbp pb' ^шщ^тш-i| ûbphnuùÇ Lp^mmüp U pb' ^ш фшUnLump inLp? h^p^á ¿h^ugp^ íbp-çÇûûbpÇu, ^ûqÇ ÎbpçÇû mшuûшÙJШïnLÙ ШJu hnupbpÇ ùnm 60%-p brçbi bû pшdûbmnúubpnLÚ ûbprçpnLÙûbp, шл n¿ pb фшpbpшJ|û: UÇUûnLjû dшùшûшï, Ç mшppbpnLpJnLÛ щшpm£ШJ|û ^шщ^тш^ ûbphnupÇ U щnpmфblШJ|û ûbp-rçpnLÙûbpÇ, ОПЬЪ-ûbpp ш^ bû pûïûnLÙ шф^ pшpôp ïшJnLÛnLpJШùp U, íbp-çÇûûbpÇ hшùbùшmnLpJШùp, qmqnprçinLÙ bû ^шщ^тш^ uUшl mbrçшpш2U-úшû шЦ»1| gшáp éÇuïbpÇ hbm, ^ûq^i rçpшû£ ûЦшqbgûnLÚ bû шpmшuшh-ùшûg|ûbp| U mbrçшg|ûbp| ÙÇ?U mb^bïшmЦnLpJШû шûhшùш¿шфnLpJnLÛp:

Ъùшû rçb^bpnLÙ úbá t ûшU шqqшJ|û шpdnLJp| &ïnLÛnLpJШû rçbpp: ÔÏnLû шqqшJ|û шpdnLJpp ûЦшqbgûnLÚ t mûmbuшïшû ßnLbpl hbmUшû£ûbpp U &qûшdшù| dшùшûшï ^шщ^тш^ hnupbpÇ ïшpqшЦnpúшû шûhpшdb2mnL-pjnLûp: UqqшJ|û шpdnLJp| in^gn^ фnUшpdb£p ¿Ç ^pn^ ^û^bi тш1| ûbphnuùÇ hшûïшpáшï| ^^pp ^шй ^ш шpmшhnu£p, pшJg ^pn^ t ùbrçùbi ^шщ^тш^ ûbphnu^ni щшJúшûшЦnpЦшá ЦшpïшЦnpúшû pnLÙp: °pp &qûшdшù| dшùшûшï шqqшJ|û шpdnLJp| фnUшpdb£p û^qnLÙ t, шq-•ш}^ шïm|Цûbp|, шpmшpdnLJpnЦ шpmшhшJmЦшá шpdb£p Uu û^qnLÙ t, Çû^û ti, Çp hbppÇû, ûщшumnLÙ t ^шщ^тш^ ûnp hnupbpÇ ûbpqpшЦùшûp U ùшuшùp фnUhшmnLgnLÙ t шpmшhnu£| hшugpшá Цûшup: 2007-2015 pp. pû-pшgùnLÙ rçb^Ç qшpqшgnrç bpLpûbp ^шщ^тш^ qnLm hnupbpÇ ûЦшqùшûp qnLqшhbß û^mibg ШJrç bpLpûbpÇ шqqшJ|û шpdnLJp| шpdbqpïnLÙ hшmïш-^bu ^n^p! ûïшmùшùp: 0bp ^|mшpïшá bpïpûbpnLÙ 2015 p., 2007 p. h^ùb-

4 Sb'u ûnLjû mb^p, t? 303:

ùmrnnLpjmûp, mqqmjÇù mpdnLjpp rçn[mpÇ ùïmrnùmûp mûbùm2mmp mpdb-qpÏÎbg Pb[ménLunLÛ' ûnm 8 mùqmû, HLÏpmÇùmjnLÛ' 5, HnLumurnmùnLÛ L ÔwqwËurnwùnLÛ' 3, BnLpùÇmjnLÙ 2,5, <mjmurnmùnLÛ' 1,5 wùqwû: LrnLjù dm-ùmùmïmhmrnimônLÛ rçn[wpÇ ùïmrnùmûp mqqmjÇù mpdnLjpÇ mpdLnpùmù mûbùmpmpôp gnLgmùÇ2Û mpômùmqpibg QÇùmurnmùnLÛ' ûnm 11%:

UqqmjÇù mpdnLjpÇ ^inËmpdbpÇ rçÇùmûÇïmjÇ wrw4»[ Çpmmbumïmù ^mrn^bp ummùm[nL hmùmp rçÇrnmpïbùp mùimùmïmù mpnjnLÙmibrn ^n^-rnpdbpÇ ^in^nËnLpjnLÙp ùnLjù dmùmùmïmhmrnimônLÛ: 2007-2015 pp. pù-pmgpnLÙ 24 qmpqmgnrç bpïpùbpÇg 14-Ç mqqmjÇù mpdnLjpù mpdbqpïibg mrcLrnpmjÇù qnpôpùïbpùbpÇ mpdnLjpùbpÇ qmûpjnLrçÇ ùïmrnùmûp (<mjmumm-ùnLÙ 5%, <nLÙqmpÇmjnLÙ 20%, nnLumummùnLÙ 42%, UbùuÇïmjnLÙ 60%, HLÏpmÇùmjnLÛ' 66%), Çuï ûùmgmôÇ rçb^pnLÙ mpdLnpibg (QÇùmurnmùnLÙ 37%, apwumwùnLÛ' 12%, hupmjbinLÙ 20%, LÇpmùmùnLÙ 60%, àLpmqim-jnLÙ 19%): $Çùmùumïmù ¿qùmdmûÇ ^mjùmùùbpnLÛ Ùbp pùmpmô bpïpùbpÇ mqqmjÇù mpdnLjpùbpÇ ^ntmpdbpÇ L ïm^Çrnm[Ç qmm hnupbpÇ ^n^in^nL-pjmù ùÇçL Ïm^p qrnùb[nL hmùmp Ïmrnmpbùp ébqpbuÇnù ibpinLÔnLpjmù: UmnpL ùbpïmjmgimô bù 4bp[nLÔnLpjwù mpn.jnLÙ£ùbpp' hm24mpï4mô Minitab ôpmqpmjÇù ^mpbpni:

Source Coefficient P-value

Constant -5.75 0.013

NEER 0.1141 0.172

Regression Model NA 0.172

Model Summary

S R-sq R-sq(adj) R-sq(pred)

10.0606 8.70% 4.35% 0.00%

Model Equation NCF-GDP = -5.77 + 0.1141*NEER

Unrçb[p rnm[Çu t ùÇmjù 4.35% ¿2^pï4mô R pmémïnLunL mpdbp, Çù^p Û2mùmïnLÛ t, np ¿Ïm ^wppbpwïwù Ïm^ pùmpimô bpïpùbpÇ mqqmjÇù mpdnLjpùbpÇ ^n^mpdbpÇ rçÇùmûÇïmjÇ L ïm^Çrnm[Ç qmm hnupbpÇ ùÇçL:

Qàw^wmïbp 3.

Quupquignri bpQpûbpî uuqqwjîû uupdnLjpûbpî ifinfruupdbgî L IjLUiyfiiniuiîi qmm hnugbpî ûfiçL Quiiyp (2007-2015pp.)

5 dbqpbufinlj 4bp[nL6nLpjnLljp lwmwpb[ t hbr^filwlp' IMF Balance of Payment and International Investment Position Statistics, IMF International Financial Statistics m4jw[ljbpfi pwqwjfi hfiiwl

Q-npônùwjÇù 4bp[nLÔni.pjwû umnLjqnLpjwù w^whniûwù hwùwp w4b[wg-4»[ bù ùwL hbmLjw[ ^wpwûbmpbpp' np^bu lw^Çmw[Ç qnLm hnupbpÇ ^n-^inËnLpjwù ipw wqrçnrç qnpônùùbp:

Uùiwùwlwù wprçjnLùwibm ^n^wpdbp (Nominal Effective Exchange Rate) NEER

âbmwlwù i^wpimwimnûubpÇ imnlnuwrçpnLjù (government bonds rate) GBR

PwùlwjÇù wiwùrçùbpÇ mnlnuw^pnLjù (deposit rate) DR

PwùlwjÇù ^nËwénLpjwù mnlnuw^pnLjù (lending rate) LR

Qùwi (Inflation/consumer prices %) ICP

îw^Çmw[Ç hw2ÎÇ pwgnLpjwù Çùrçbpu (Capital opennes index (KAOPEN)) COI

SùmbunLpjwù pwgnLpjwù Çùrçbpu (Openness index (% of GDP)) OI

<wplbpÇ pùrçhwùnLp Ùwlwp^wl (Total tax rate (% of comercial profit)) TTR

PÇqùbu hÇûùb[nL hwùwp wùhpwdb2ï dwûwùwlwhwmiwô (Time required to start a business (days)) TRSB

UwùuwmnLpùbpÇ ùÇçÇù Ùiwlwprçwl (Tariff rate,weighted mean, all products (%)) TRW

SùmbunLpjwù wqwmnLpjwù Çùrçbpu (Economic freedom index) EFI

Source Coefficient P-value

Constant -22.12 0.002

ICP 0.0612 0.004

Ol 0.243 0.125

OI*OI 0.02892 0.011

Regression Model NA 0.014

Model Summary

S R-sq R-sq(adj) R-sq(pred)

7.42229 81.03% 71.55% 54.11%

Model Equation NCF-GDP = -22.12 + 0.0612*ICP + 0.243*OI + 0.02892*OI*OI

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Îpw. pùmpiwô bplpùbpù bù" âÇùwumwù, Uw[WjqÇw, ÛÇ[Çi^Çùùbp, PnuqwpÇw, <nLùqwpÇw, UwlbrçnùÇw, Lbhwumwù, ènLÛÇùÇw, <wjwumwù, Upwumwù, Un[rçn4w, ènLuwumwù, flLl|pw-Çùw, hupwjb[, LÇpwùwù, Uwpnln, BnLùÇu, PpwqÇ[Çw, 3Ç[Ç, în[nLÙpÇw, UbpuÇlw, äwpwq-Îwj, àLpnLqiwj, UbùbunLb[w:

Normplot of Residuals for NCF-GDP Residuals vs Fits for NCF-GDP

Normal Probability Hot (response is NCF-GDP

Versus Fits (response is NCF-GDP

Residual Histogram for NCF-GDP Residuals vs Order for NCF-GDP

Histogram (response is NCF-GDP)

Versus Order (response is NCF-GDP)

12

Residual

6 8 101214161820 Observation Order

40

99

30

20

40

0

40

24

36

2 4

22

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6 Sb'u IMF International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity Database:

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• ïw^ÇmwLÇ hwùwËwéù ùbphnupÇ ùïwmùwùp,

7 Sbu Schmukler S., Financial Globalization: Gain and Pain for Developing Countries, 2008, t2 54:

8 Sbu Krugman P., Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises. Manuscript, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1999. Tobin J., Financial Globalization. World Development, 28/6, 2000.

Sbu Frankel J., Proposals regarding restrictions on capital flows. African Finance Journal 1, 1999 (May), 92-104:

• lm^|mm[| Imp^mdmilbm lbphnupfi llmmimip,

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10 Sb'u Lina al Khilani, The dynamics of international capital flows and financial crises, International Review of research in Emerging Markets and the Global Economy, Online International Research Journal, 2015, vol. 1, issue 3, t2 406:

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2. Furceri D., Guichard S. and Rusticelli E., Episodes of Large Capital Inflows and the Likelihood of Banking and Currency Crises and Sudden Stops, OECD Economics Department, 2011, Working Paper, No. 865.

3. Getting the most out of International Capital flows, OECD Economic Outlook, 2011.

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5. IMF International Financial Statistics.

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7. IMF International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity database

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9. Frankel Jeffrey, Proposals regarding restrictions on capital flows. African Finance Journal 1 (May), 1999.

10. Tobin J., Financial Globalization. World Development, 28/6, 2000.

11. Krugman P., Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises. Manuscript, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1999.

12. Lina al Khilani, The dynamics of international capital flows and financial crises, International Review of research in Emerging Markets and the Global Economy, Online International Research Journal, 2015, vol. 1, issue 3.

13. Schmukler S., Zoido P., Financial Globalization, Crises and Contagion, 2008.

13 Sb'u Schmukler S., Zoido P., Financial Globalization, Crises and Contagion, 2008, t2 23, 24:

АРАКС АБРААМЯН

Аспирант кафедры Международных экономических отношений АГЭУ

Оценка влияния международных потоков капитала на экономику развивающихся стран- Международные потоки капитала способствуют долгосрочному экономическому росту, но не лишены краткосрочных рисков. На мировом уровне долгосрочные положительные результаты видны, когда капитал эффективно распределен, превращаясь из сбережений в странах с ее избытком в инвестиции в странах с недостатком. Тем не менее большие краткосрочные потоки капитала могут дестабилизировать страны, принимающие капитал, и в особенности, экономики стран с развивающимся рынком, что делает их уязвимыми к внешним потрясениям, к притокам горячих денег, к появлению стадного поведения и к перегреву экономики. В случае внезапной остановки или выхода этих потоков, вероятность возникновения кризисов возрастает, в особенности, когда обменный курс национальной валюты фиксированный. Глобальные финансовые потоки определяют негативные эффекты глобализации и требуют государственного регулирования в виде управления потоками капитала или управлением рисками.

Ключевые слова: финансовая глобализация, финансовый кризис, ПИИ, валютные курсы, международные резервы, управление потоками капитала. JEL: F3, E44, G15

ARAKS ABRAHAMYAN

Post-graduate at the Chair of International Economic Relations at ASUE

MMeasuring the Effeciency of intemattonai Capital Flows for Developing Countries.- Internation capital flows contribute to long-term economic growth of developing economies, but don't lack short-term risks. On the global scale, long-term positive results are recorded when the capital is allocated effectively, turning the savings of the capital in rich countries into investments in those, which lack it. Nevertheless, big capital flows can destabilize the economies of hosting developing countries in the short run, making them vulnerable to external shocks, "hot money" inflows, herding behavior and overheating of the economy. In case of a sudden stop or run of these flows, the probability of financial crises grows, especially when the country doesn't have a freely floating exchange rate regime. In that context international capital flows determine the negative impact of globalization and require government regulation in terms of capital flows management or risk management.

Key words: financial globalization, financial crisis, FDI, foreign exchange rates, international reserves, capital flow management. JEL: F3, E44, G15