24Международная научно-практическая конференция
4. Байкова С.Д., Демко О.В. Российская банковская система в современных рыночных условиях // Финансы и кредит. 2012. №34 (514). URL: https://cyber-lenmka.ra/article/n/rossiyskaya-bankovskaya-sistema-v-sovremennyh-rymchnyh-usloviyah (дата обращения: 21.10.2020).
5. Белянчикова Татьяна Викторовна О структуризации российской банковской системы // Проблемы экономики и юридической практики. 2018. №6. URL: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/o-strukturizatsii-rossiyskoy-bankovskoy-sistemy (дата обращения: 21.10.2020).
УДК 338.1
Парушев Александр Валерьевич Parushev Alexsandr V.
Доктор философии
PhD
Высшая школа предпринимательства (г.Тверь) Graduate School of Entrepreneurship (Tver)
ОСОБЕННОСТИ РАЗВИТИЯ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОГО РОСТА
FEATERES OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF ECONOMIC GROWTH
Аннотация: Данная статья посвящена исследованию экономического роста в странах, избравших стратегию импортозамещения. Вначале дается общая оценка принципа классификации стран по критериям, установленным автором. Далее автор останавливается на странах, избравших стратегию импортозамещения, и подробно рассматривает все преимущества и недостатки выбранной стратегии.
Abstract: This article is devoted to the study of economic growth in countries that have chosen an import substitution strategy. First, a general assessment of the principle of classifying countries according to criteria set by the author is given. Then, the author dwells on the countries that have chosen the import substitution strategy, and considers in detail all the advantages and disadvantages
Международная научно-практическая конференция of the chosen strategy.
Ключевые слова: ВВП, импорт, экономический рост, бюджет. темпы роста, доход на душу населения, протекционизм, государственные доходы и расходы, экспорт, урбанизация, конвертируемость валюты, импортозамещение.
Keywords: GDP, import, economic growth, budget. growth rate, per capita income, protectionism, government revenues and expenditures, export, urbanization, currency convertibility, import substitution.
The great well-known economist S. Kuznets defined the concept of economic growth as economic development at which the long-term growth rate of production constantly exceeds the population growth rate [1.8] This was great news for world economic theory. In most countries, production growth was carried out at approximately the same rate as population growth, and at relatively low incomes. It can be assumed that the statement by S. Kuznets has specific time limits: GDP per capita cannot infinitely exceed the growth rate of the population due to limited resources [2]. It follows that there are transitional periods when economic growth is a transition from one state (agrarian society) to another (post-industrial society with a fairly high level of per capita income). Economic theory points to the existence of non-European centers of modern growth. Only the economic expansion, as well as the emergence and spread of institutional innovation, was believed to show strong growth. The dependence of the results of economic growth on the formation of capitalist relations, market development, the emergence of guarantees of private property is not in doubt [3]. The characteristic features of such growth are a decrease in the share of agriculture in the volume of production; the rapid growth of cities; an increase in the literate population, and, as a result, an increase in the level of education; fertility decline, which causes a decrease in population growth; increase and increase in life expectancy; growth in savings; a decrease in the share of food products in total consumption; growth of government spending in GDP [4]. These processes took place against the background of the predominance of exports over imports.
Today, economic growth, which provides an increase in GDP per capita from 300 dollars in pre-industrial countries (the level of Peru) to 4-4.5 thousand. dollars in
Международная научно-практическая конференция highly developed countries (Great Britain, Switzerland), accompanied by a huge burden on the economy, the share of government spending increases from 7-9% to 40%, the level of education rises (the number of educated people rises from 35% to 9092%). At the same time, the share of agriculture in the structure of production decreases from 47% to 7-8% and employment (from 60-65% to 18-20%).The level of openness of the economy is growing - the share of exports in GDP is growing from 10-12% to 35-40%. There is an increase in savings from 10-12% to 30-35%, a decrease in the birth rate from 28-30% to 7-9% and mortality from 28-30% to 7-9%, and population growth rates are declining. The early stages of industrialization show a high degree of inequality, especially in countries above $ 1,000 / person, then it decreases. The dependence of economic development and political development is also clearly manifested. Countries with higher economic development show a greater tendency to democratic principles, manifested in a higher level of education, the dominance of the middle class standard of living, urbanization.
Thus, we can talk about some assessments by criteria, with the help of which you can get some idea about a given country by setting these criteria. For example, if a country with a high level of export (more than 20%), with a low level of people employed in agriculture (less than 20%), it can be highly likely to say that this country has a high average per capita GDP, with a high level of urbanization, a sufficiently high level of literacy and a healthy population, enough with a slow population growth and low birth rate and mortality., as well as a country that is likely to redistribute through its budget at least a quarter of GDP (including extrabudgetary funds). In terms of political development, this country is most likely a country with sustainable democracy. And, on the contrary, if the country is dominated by the share of the population employed in agriculture, the export share is small (less than 1%), then this country can be considered an underdeveloped country with an average per capita GDP of less than $ 500, an illiterate population with high mortality, low life expectancy, and fertility , and rather limited savings among the population. Politically, this is a country with a pronounced monarchy or an authoritarian regime of an unstable nature.
Studying economic growth, we can say that it has a direct relationship with the
Международная научно-практическая конференция national norm of savings and savings. . An increase in government spending in GDP has a different effect on the economy as a whole if it occurs within acceptable limits. However, going beyond acceptable sizes has a negative effect on economic growth.
Above, certain criteria for assessing the country's economic growth have been described. But in order to get a complete picture of the assessment of economic growth, it is necessary to take into account the cultural traditions of society, its features. If you choose a rigid path of development, then you can miss the essence and consequences of persistent deviations of national development from global trends.
The economic growth of each country is unique. However, a small number of cases are known where deviations from global trends in the development of economic growth were radical, stable in nature and were determined by a conglomerate of interconnected institutional innovations uncharacteristic for most market economies. In this article, the subject of analysis will be such deviations.
Comparing the national paths of economic growth of countries with the normative, we can distinguish several groups of countries with stable or deviating development parameters:
1. Countries with the so-called "Swedish model". These are countries with developed market economies, but with a high share of government revenues and expenditures in GDP, very expensive social programs, and fairly low differentiation of incomes.
2. Countries in which the state burden on the economy is quite low, with high rates of private savings and investment in GDP (mainly these are Southeast Asian countries)
3. Countries with a closed economy, with very abnormally low resource indicators of imports in GDP and exports of manufacturing products (countries of import substitution)
4. Countries with a closed economy, characterized by a high share of government revenues and expenditures in GDP, high shares of government savings and investment in GDP, fairly high indicators of resource intensity in GDP (China, Vietnam, Cuba, North Korea, Laos)
Международная научно-практическая конференция The subject of consideration in this article will be deviations of economic growth from standard norms in countries of import substitution.
Countries of import substitution.
Historically, this model preceded the formation of a socialist economic system. It first developed in Russia, then in Brazil, Argentina, India, and Mexico. These are large, mainly agricultural countries, having an impressive domestic market, having the character of catching up development. Basically, these are exporting countries of agricultural products and raw materials, with a weak manufacturing industry, the demand for industrial goods is mainly satisfied by imports from industrial countries In such a situation, the idea seems to be normal, which was previously discussed back in the 19th century in developing countries - to abolish foreign economic market mechanisms and abandon currency convertibility. Introduce a monopoly on foreign trade, thereby concentrating currency resources on priority areas of the economy. Thus, the competition of imports is eliminated, the domestic market expands, which becomes a powerful motivation for the formation of the national manufacturing industry.
The withdrawal of national capital is hindered by tight control over the foreign economic sphere and currency non-convertibility. This allows the use of national capital resources to finance international industry. The domestic market itself is preserved (as a mechanism of current micro-regulation), but its importance in shaping the strategy of the sectoral economic structure is seriously limited.
The strategy of import substitution and protectionism itself is quite attractive and simple. Customs duties are rather large revenues to the budget and are characterized by sufficient ease of collection. Hence the desire to constantly increase them to solve budget problems. Constant problems with the balance of payments forces to restrict imports. The model of import substitution countries is associated with the traditions of the agricultural state. This model does not imply the liquidation of private property, as well as a clear distinction between property and power.
The model of import substitution countries can be described as a natural reaction of national power elites. In order for it to be realized, radical changes in the distribution of power and property are not needed.
Международная научно-практическая конференция
I would like to note the main difference between this model: the transition from simple tariff protection of the domestic producer to the actual separation of the domestic market from the external one. To this end, extremely high tariffs are introduced that do not allow the market integration of the national private sector into the general structure of world trade, as well as various forms of direct rationing of convertible currency and the monopoly of foreign trade itself.
In order to identify the characteristic trajectories of the countries of import substitution, we highlight those countries that:
1. According to J. Sachs and E. Urner [5] were with closed economies.
2. Over a long period (1960-2018), the share of GDP exports was less than or about 10%.
Such examples are Bangladesh, Argentina, Mexico, Myanmar, Pakistan, Brazil, India.
When a country adheres to the import substitution strategy, export growth rates lag behind those of industrial production and GDP. Hence, the ratio of exports to GDP decreases with the growth of the economy. In percentage terms, this proportion varies in the range of 5-10%.
There is also a correlation between economic growth rates and export growth rates. An additional motivation for economic growth will be created by access to the world market. There are no countries along the path of economic growth and not participating in the global division of labor. There is a limit to isolation (about 4%) of exports, beyond which it becomes impossible to sustainable development, and indicators of incremental capital intensity of GDP tend to infinity.
The opinion that import substitution can make it possible to remove the restriction of economic growth that is associated with imports, the deficit of the balance of payments, and foreign exchange reserves is erroneous. Imports of industrial goods are indeed declining, but there is a need for the import of raw materials and semifinished products.
There are limits to the closed economy, which is proved by the experience of import substitution countries. Having reached a maximum, the share of exports in GDP
Международная научно-практическая конференция is stabilizing, but problems such as a lack of currency convertibility and the struggle around its distribution appear. In these conditions, economic growth is possible only due to export earnings. The reserves for reducing the share of exports in GDP have been exhausted.
Thus, the import substitution strategy has some upper and lower limits. It allows for industrial growth due to limited competition of imported goods. But at the same time, there are limits set for itself by itself, beyond which economic development becomes impossible.
When a country focuses on import substitution, it gives it "greenhouse" conditions. These conditions are very different from the harsh realities that exist on world markets. The softness of the economic environment in which the products are produced enables enterprises to exist with the chronically low quality of products and inefficient use of resources. All this creates new managerial stereotypes that are not included in any comparison with stereotypes in international markets. The lack of competition entails low competitiveness of the domestic manufacturing industry [6].
There are 2 different blocks in export: export of raw materials and export of products of manufacturing industries. The export of raw materials depends on the availability of resources in this country, the export of products is determined by its competitiveness [7] on the world market, institutional innovations that are associated with the chosen growth model.
Countries with a selected import substitution strategy are characterized by very low per capita exports of goods compared to countries of the corresponding level. It should be especially noted that the difference from the parameters that are inherent in highly developed countries, with the growth of GDP per capita, not only does not decrease, but even increases.
The possibilities for increasing the export of raw materials in a country rich in natural resources have limits for countries that have chosen an import substitution strategy, the limits for increasing GDP are limited, on the one hand, by the ratio of GDP to raw materials export, and on the other, by the maximum volume of raw materials export per capita [9].
Международная научно-практическая конференция
The growth limits for countries that are very rich in natural resources can in truth be very high, but, in any case, they are limited by the sets of factors indicated above.
Entering economic growth in this situation is possible if the country enters the international division of labor at the level of manufacturing industries. But just do this and fail. Reaching the upper limit of the ratio of GDP to export per capita and export of raw materials per capita, a slowdown in economic growth and its instability are noted [9].
In practice, outputting volumes of production compatible with its stable functioning, without changing the model, usually led to an even worse situation. It consisted of large-scale borrowing, which for a short period of time allowed to remove foreign exchange restrictions and boost the economy. But due to the instability of funding sources, the inability to quickly pay off debt due to the rapidly growing competitiveness of product exports led to deadlocks and drove the economy into even greater stagnation.
The crisis of import substitution is a signal of a severe currency crisis, a shortage of convertible currency to maintain national industry.
The only way out of this situation, as noted earlier, is to enter the international market, open the economy, convertibility of the currency, and the absence of a protectionist policy regarding the domestic market. But inevitably the intermediate result will be a structural crisis, a decline in production, which cannot be immediately eliminated and raised to the level of competitiveness of products on the world market.
It is easy for the country to choose and enter the import substitution regime; to exit is a much more difficult task.
The stagnation described above is inevitable. The stagnation period can take tens of years (the so-called transitional periods).
From the history of the development of many countries, the advantages of the import substitution strategy were explained by protecting the economy from fluctuations in the foreign market and the desire to be a more independent country. And everywhere, the need to exit this model was accompanied by an acute crisis of payment and trade balances, as well as a lack of currency to ensure minimal imports.
Международная научно-практическая конференция
It should be noted that the exit from the import-substituting model in resource-poor countries is much simpler because of the exit at earlier stages. In the early stages with a low level of GDP, the dismantling of import substitution mechanisms and the launch of market regulators is much easier than in developed countries and can easily be combined with economic growth. For resource-rich countries with a relatively high per capita income level, the dynamics of import substitution mechanisms are inevitably accompanied by serious economic crises that may take decades.
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8. Kuznets S. Modern Economic Growth: Rate, Structure and Spread. New Haven. London, 1966.
9. Parushev A.V. G.L.Tolkachenko The reasons of the socialist economy collapse (on the example of the USSR)// Vestnik TVGU. Series: Economics and Management № 3(51), 2020, pp.227-238.
