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A. N. Falaleev, V A. Eremina Krasnoyarsk State Pedagogical University named after V. P. Astafiev, Russia, Krasnoyarsk
ON THE PROBLEM OF THE STATE ANTI-CRISIS POLICY INSTRUMENTS IN RUSSIA REFINEMENT
The article covers the main instruments, forms and methods for the state regulation of the market economy. It features the anti-crisis measures (instruments of anti-crisis state economic regulation) taken by the Russian Government to minimize negative consequences of the world financial crisis. The main macro-economic indices and some dynamic prognoses in Russia within the next few years are provided.
Keywords: world crisis, state regulation, macro-economic prognoses, anti-crisis measures.
Inthe modem society quite a number of socio-economic problems can hardly be solved on the basis of only pure market instruments. It assumes an active use of all state influential levels. The choice of the state economic regulation tools, types and the forms of their use cannot be made at random. The regulating instruments must be supported by the strictly adjusted theoretical basis of a chosen strategy and the ways of economic development. The general trend of the state economic regulation is defined by the main aim of the whole economic policy and is directed at its realization. For this purpose, a state uses different forms and methods to be the instruments of a state economic regulation, the whole complex of which forms its mechanism. At this point the state has methods of direct as well as indirect influence on the economy at its disposal.
Their difference, as it is known, is that the methods of direct influence are implemented with the help of their administrative resource support, while indirect method of regulation is implemented only by economic means, among which measures in the field of fiscal, financial credit, international monetary, customs policy, state regulation of enterprise and others take an important part.
The fiscal policy is an important tool for macroeconomic stabilization of economy achievement. Manipulating with the expenses and taxes of the state one can stimulate the business activity as well as influence unemployment and inflation. However, the usage of the tool that is not properly regulated (unreasonable taxes, excess expenditures, etc.) transforms any fiscal policy into a factor which destabilizes theeconomy [1].
A monetary policy is very significant, since changing money supply the state can influence the prices, investment processes and consumption, production volume and economic growth rate. The monetary policy as well as the fiscal one can be a means of either stabilization or destabilization of economy. Without efficient, optimally arranged monetary policy the struggle with inflation is doomed to failure [1].
All the tools of carrying out the economic policy are interconnected; they are not isolated from each other; therefore making decision in one sphere it is necessary to consider the influence on the others. The government uses various forms of direct and indirect influence on the economic processes to conduct the state policy approved by appropriate democratic procedure. In existing scientific publications and in special textbooks are mentioned: appropriateness of using such forms of market economic
state regulation as direct government control of some branches, objects; tax regulations; monetary control, which is the influence onmoney circulation; budgetary management that is distribution of state budget funds among various areas of their use; control through forming various state programmes and government order; price regulation; regulation of working conditions, employment relations, remuneration of labour; social regulation (including state social insurance); government regulation of environment protection and environmental restoration; governmental antimonopoly regulation; government external economic and currency regulation [2;3].
Under the conditions of radically changed system of economic relations, where the government ceased being the only owner of production means, it is still in the center of economic and social development of the country, not as a direct entrepreneur of the country, which defines the character and rates of economic growth, but as a main partner, global manager against other subjects of the market.
The government influences economy mainly through legislative acts, regulating the tax system, allotment of public investment, subsidies, benefits, loaning, realizationoflarge-scale social and economic pragrammes.
Crisis as one of the cycle phases in the production relationship system is a hard trial for the economy of any country, especially for Russia which has not finished the whole complex of radical socio-economic changes on the way to the development of the economic market relations. Crisis canbe considered as a dialectical unity of the limit and development stimulus. On the one hand, crisis is a brake for economic development, shown in prices and stock prices falls, production drop, employment reduction, enterprise profitability decline (both in production and service spheres). On the other hand, in crisis situation some bases of restoration ofbroken laws of economy impulse and its further development, transition into a new phase of the production cycle are built. Meanwhile, spontaneous market mechanism for the solution of existing contradictions in the modern conditions of economy globalization have positive effect, but there are not enough means for the exit from this phase in the shortest time with less economic and social loss for the society [4].
As it is known, the first large-scale crisis regulation at the governmental level was conducted intheUSAto escape the Great Depression of 1930s. Governmental crisis management was put into effect here in the following fields: financing and subsidizing of corporations on the verge of
bankruptcy, compulsory amalgamation of organizations, governmental regulation of agriculture which fell into decay, organization of public works and issue of unemployment benefit, credit control.
Financial crisis is today’s reality forthe world economy. It is very important to mention that American financial system has become a very strong catalyst in this extremely difficult period of global crisis [5].
In October - December 2008 when the world crisis began to influence Russian economy, our government began to carry out anti crisis measures.
The anti-crises measures at the first stage permitted not to let crisis spread, its transition to the forms that threaten the economy operation foundations and, averted its collapse. The first-priority package, undertaken by the Russian Federation Government to combat world economic crisis development has been put into effect in the following directions [6]: exchange rate policy, banking system support, financial market support and Russian enterprises protection from hostile takeovers, tax and budgetary policy, tariff policy, population employment assistance, residential housing and people encouragement in real estate market, business activity support in the real economy sector: oil industry, automobile production, agricultural engineering, defense-industrial complex, SME (small & medium size enterprises), air transportations, retail trade, agricultural industrial complex, infrastructural projects, organization of crises management support.
Global economic crisis in all countries leads to production decline, unemployment growth, reduction of population income that aggravates social tension in the country, demanding from the state prompt and quite effective positive problem solution. The adoption of anti-crisis management Program of the Russian Federation government for 2009, where the experts’, Russian Federation citizens’, parties representatives’, public and political organizations’ opinion has been taken into account to a certain extent, has become an adequate reaction to these problems. It has been mentioned in this document that the Government will bear the highest responsibility for all their actions in order not to provide wrong inducements, business and people motivation distortion, which undermine long-term development plan. The priority for relying on private initiative, private economy sector as an important factor to overcome crisis phenomenon in economy development will be retained. Meanwhile, it is supposed that the role of the state will be gradually decreasing in accordance with the staged crisis escape.
The main anti-crisis measures of the RussianFederation Government and the Bank of Russia to revitalize Russian economy in 2009 will contain the activities intended for [7]:
1. Strengthening of social security, preservation and creation of working places.
1.1. Socialsecurity.
1.2. Education support.
1.3. Health care, physical education and sport.
2. Preservation and improvement of the industrial and technological potential.
2.1. General support of the real sector and cooperation with backbone enterprises.
2.1.1. Backbone enterprises support.
2.1.2. Measures of tax stimulation.
2.1.3. Demand support.
2.1.4. Assistance to improvement of access to financial resources.
2.2. Supportforcertaineconomic sectors.
2.2.1.Agriculture.
2.2.2. Support for projects of automobile industry and agricultural machinery.
2.2.3. Provision of the financial support to the enterprises of defense industry complex.
2.2.4. Transportcomplex.
2.2.5. Civil housing construction and communal services.
2.2.6. Timberprocessingcomplex.
2.2.7. Othersectors.
3. Business administrative pressure reduction.
3.1. Lowering of the administrative barriers when implementing enterprise activity.
3.2. State support of small and medium enterprises.
4. Improvement of the national financial system.
4.1. Expansion of the resource base and increasing the liquidity of the bank system.
4.2 Improvement of access to the bank credits for the real sector enterprises.
4.3. Financial reorganization of the bank system.
5. Interaction of the Administration and the Subjects of the RF in anti-crisis measures implementation.
5.1. Subsidies, supporting the measures providing well-balanced budgets of the Russian Federation Subjects.
5.2. Expansionbudget loans opportunities.
One of the positive features of the world financial crisis is that it served as a catalyst for the implementation of the long-awating objectives and projects in the field the tax relations improvement. In October and November 2008 the RF Federal Assembly adopted a number of Laws implementingthe anti-crisis program. These Laws stipulated both direct and indirect effect on the stabilization of the country economy and the exit from the crisis. The implementation of these large-scale amendments to the RF Tax Code has appeared to be possible within the overspread anti-crisis policy. It should be noted that the effective stimulus here was the RF President’s Appeal to the Federal Assembly, in which the Head of the State emphasized that the financial-economical crisis is to be positive for Russia, as Russia possesses the considerable financial means for anti-crisismeasures [8].
The major parameters of the anti-crisis economic and social policy in the RF have manifested in a number of adopted official documents of different levels including both the Message on the budget policy in 2010-2012 signed by President on May 26, 2009 and the official Statement of Administration representatives, including RF President, RF Prime Minister, the Heads of differentMinistries responsible for the corresponding spheres of activities.
Among the main objectives of the country budget policy for 2010-2012 the following ones were emphasized by RF President [9]: provision of the fulfillment of the social obligations, limiting the budget deficit for preserving macro-economical stability and constant fulfillment of the social obligations, transition to the mode of tough budget saving; determining appropriate forms of supporting the real sector
of the economy and the financial system, raising the efficiency of the economy and labourproductivity; provision of significant quality improvement in public services for citizens; modernizing the net of services to the citizens with the help of the state budget; improving technologies of State purchase; determining the economically proved level of the tax burden and the tax system, corresponding to the modern stage of the Russian economic development and fostering the development of enterprises, the search and application of the advanced technologies; providing the well-balanced expenditure competence and resources for its implementation at each level of the public authority, determining the responsibility for inefficient budget expenditure, creating the stimulus for own profit potential expansion; completing the formation of the reliable and well-balanced retirement system based on the insurance conditions of the resource provision permitting to provide the appropriate living standards of the aged citizens; determining and implementing the complex of measures for forming the “barrier-free” environment for the disabled.
The main directions of tax relations improvement in 20102012 in the budget message are [9]: modernization of the Russian economy and provision necessary level of budget system income; structure and level of taxation have to reduce distortion and have a positive influence on structural changes in economy, to form comfortable conditions for the development of business activity; business must show the highest extent of responsibility while discharging duties in the process of tax payment; in 2009-2011 the tax system optimization must be continued; it is necessary to analyze the result of the insurance payment increase in pension and medical insurance system for the financial status of the organizations and to determine if there is possibility for tax decrease to softenthe potential negative effect; since 2010 it is necessary to double the maximum amount of income that allows to apply the simplifiedtaxation systemfrom 30 millions to 60 millions rubles peryear; to increase the maximum interest value on liabilities considered as expenses in accordance with current interest rates; to establish temporary special workingprocedure withthe liabilities of organizations making it possible upon requests of tax payer to utilize all available tools for tax payment terms; also it is reasonable to develop the institution of changes in terms for tax payments (granting of deferral, installments, investment tax credit); it is necessary to take measures for mobilization of additional budget income and simultaneous reduction of expenses related to liability compliance including introduction of modern technologies of tax management.
According to April 1, 2009 data, the volume of the Reserve Fund in our country accounted for 4,117 trillion rubles, while the National Well-being Fund went downby 1,6 per cent to 2,869 trillion rubles, but the inflation rate in the Russian Federation according to the data of the Federal Agency of the state statistics accounted for 6,6 %. In accordance with the estimation of the Finance Ministry of RF, the projected income of the subjects ofRussia in 2009 will go downby 1,1 trillion rubles compared with the last year orby 18 per cent respectively. In that case the regional budget deficit is to be partly coveredby the federalfunds (URL: http://www.pnme -tass.ru/news).
Anti-crises measures of the government ofRF to stabilize the economy has worked efficiently, S. Stepashin, the chairmanof ChamberofAccounts confirmed, atthe session withPrime-MinisterofRF VladimirPutin, while reportingthe inspection results of fund expenses, assigned for anti-crises activities. “Assessing the results of inspection one can say that the government regulations to stabilize the system worked - banking liquidity raised, a number of industrial enterprises improved. Governmental measures made credits more accessible to economy. If in March, only 25-30 per cent of enterprises could use credits, now due to cuts in inflation and CB refinancing rate, they came to45 per cent. In total, the regulations were timely and our monitoring proves that” summedup Stepashin(URL: http://www.prime-tass.ru/ news/0/{8D3B9BF6-7C9F-4C22-8A7E-F03B97CBE300}.uif).
Nevertheless, “the goal of VAT decrease is still on the agenda, regardless of the opinion of some officials. That’s absolutely true. Nowadays there is a shrinkage of payments to the budget. Moreover, the shrinkage is substantial. In this situation the price of any mistake may be very high. None of the analysts is able to predict the result of this or that tax reduction. The Government is not intended to give up the chance of tax burden reduction in appropriate situation. It’s not obligatory to give up this idea, the question is when to start implementing it. “In crisis period one should behave carefully with the tax policy”, said the Head of the State at the meeting with “Unified Russia” partymembers” [10].
The Minister ofRF ElviraNabiullina expects the economy to revive by the end of2009. She states that there is a number of factors which make it possible to optimistically regard the trends of economy growth restoration, such as: restoration of domestic consumer demand and investment demand. In its turn discoursing about the measures for getting the economy out of crisis, the minister pointed out the necessity of changes in the Russian taxation system (URL: http:// www.prime-tass.ru/news/show.asp? Id=884546&ct = news).
According to the forecasts of the deputy of the minister of finances - Secretary of State Serguei Shatalov - the tax burden on business in 2011 as a result of replacement of unified social tax by insurance fees will increase by approximately 800-850 billion of rubles. In May 2009 the Government of the Russian Federation approved a set of laws abolishing unified social tax and its replacementby the insurance fees from 2010.In this connection it was decided to postpone till 2011the increase of insurance payment rate from the current 26 % to avoid the excessive increase of financialburdenonbusiness incrisis conditions (URL: http:/ /www.minfin.ru/ru/press/speech/index.php? id4 = 7366). Federal budget expenses in2010 related to unified social tax replacement by insurance fees will make up more than 1.7 trillion rubles and further on will decrease, said the head of the Ministry ofHealth Care and Social Development Tatiana Golikova according to the results of the government session.
According to the mainversion of the forecast the fall of Gross Domestic product by estimation of the Ministry for Economic Development in 2009 % will make up6%(2.2 % according to previous forecast) and in case of pessimistic scenario - 7.4 %. According to the latest basic forecast of the Ministry forEconomic Developmentthe average annual
price for the oil brand Urals in 2009 is expected at the level of $45 abarrel (previous forecast $41 abarrel) Inflationby all the versions is forecasted in 2009 at the level of 13 %, in 2010 -10 %, in2011 - 7-8 %, in 2012 - 5-7 %. The average annual exchange rate as peroptimistic scenario is forecasted asfollows: in2009 - 34.1 rublesforadollar, in2010 - 35.4 rubles, in2012 - 37.3 rubles foradollar. Exportby estimates of the Ministry forEconomic Development in 2009 will make up 260.4billionUSD andimportby estimates ofMinistry in 2009 will float depending on scenario within the limits of
198.2 -206.8billionrubles (URL: http://www.edinros.ru/news/ text.shtml? 79385/100096).
In average, 100-150 thousand ofRussian graduates can come across the problems of employment in 2009. “The figure is very impressive, and we must do our best to soften this problem. First of all it concerns the question of stimulating business to employ new workers” declared the President of Russian Federation D. Medvedev at the meeting with Khabarovsk State University students (URL: http:// www.nr2.ru/society/233091.html).
According to the information of the Ministry ofEconomic Development the decrease of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) may be from 4 % to 8 %. “We are working both at pessimistic and optimistic scenarios. It seems to us, a lot will depend on the efficiency of our actions. The Ministry of Economic Development revised its prognosis concerning the decrease ofWorld GDP from 0.3%to 1.4 %” declared E. Nabiullina (URL: http://www.economy.gov.ru/wps/wcm/myconnect/ economylib/mert/welcome/pressservice/review/ doc1242627372897). The reductioninindustrialproductionin RF in 2009 may runup to 4.5-6 % according to the prognosis ofR. F. Minister of Industry and Trade V Khristenko.
A special role in a number of anti-crisis measures is given to the support of small and medium business, that will increase contributionto GDP ofRF:2012 - by 1.5 times (up to1/3 of GDP), the number of small and medium companies per1,000peoplewillgrowby 15%(upto 11.4companies). “Such trend corresponds to the main strategic task in the development of small and medium business until 2020 - to approach the economically developed countries by main indicators, that is: share of small and intermediate companies in GDP - not less than 40 %, the number of employees in small and medium companies - not less than 50 % of the population involved in the economy” reported the Head of the Ministry for Economic Development E. Nabiullina at the briefing of the GovernmentPresidium session (URL: http:// www.economy.gov.ru/wps/wcm/myconnect/economylib/ mert/welcome/pressservice/news/doc1242663218628).These indices are target indicators of the project layout: “Small and medium businesses development”. It is one of the projects of the RF government for the period till 2012, which was considered at session of presidium and will be further developed by the ministry.
Realities of a modern level of social and economic relations development in the Russian Federation, expansion of world economic crisis impose the necessity of state economic
relations regulations quality improvement. One of the most real ways of this undoubtedly relevant and important goal achievement is implementation of scientifically well-grounded state economic policy. It is necessary to notice that now the quality of economic policy in the Russian Federation as a whole and in its separate constituents cause well-grounded criticismboth from scientists and from Russian business community, that demand further perfection of each effective tool in system of anti-crisis measures. While doing this, on the one hand it is necessary to perceive critically the experience accumulated in other countries and on the other hand to rely on deep research of corresponding processes and follow recommendations of Russian scientists and experts.
Bibliography
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© FalaleevA. N., Eremina V.A., 2009
