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Igor Zhukovskii Vladimir Balobaev
ON THE IDEOLOGICAL
This article presents an analytical review of the programmes of the registered candidates for the position of the President of Poland in the presidential campaign of 2010. The article mainly focuses on the relevant players and the formation of cen-
DISTANCE BETWEEN RELEVANT ters of influence in the electoral campaign.
CANDIDATES
FOR THE PRESIDENCY
OF THE REPUBLIC OF POLAND
IN 2010
Key words: President of the Republic of Poland, policy guidelines, relevant candidates, economic issues, foreign policy issues.
This article is an analytical review of the programmes of the registered candidates for the post of the President of the Republic of Poland who took part in the presidential campaign of 2010. Economic issues and external policy are taken as certain markers of the political distance between the candidates.
A variety of methods were used in conducting the research — the comparative analysis, the content analysis of the candidates' programme documents and speeches, the method of expert review, and the secondary data analysis method.
In the Republic of Poland presidential election is held in accordance with the "Law on the election of the President of the Republic of Poland" of September 27, 1990 [1]. In compliance with the decree of Bronislaw Ko-morowski, the Marshal of the Sejm (the lower house of the Parliament of Poland) and the acting President since the death of President Lech Kaczyn-ski, the election was scheduled for June 20, 2010 [2].
In case none of the candidates wins 50 %+1 vote in the first round, the second round will take place on July 4, 2010, featuring the two candidates who gained most votes. If one of the candidates withdraws the candidature in the second round, the candidate with the third best result in the first round proceeds to the second one.
A distinctive feature of the presidential election of 2010 in terms of the format of voter participation is the fact that people with special needs can vote by proxy provided they have obtained the necessary document.
The compilation of the list of voters is to be finished on June 6, 2010: gminas draw up the lists on the basis of the data on residents permanently registered on the territory. The voters who do not have a permanent registration at the place of their actual residence can obtain a certificate of the right to vote in the presidential elections at the local poll station or submit an application for the inclusion on the list of voters in the gimna the voter will be on June 20, 2010.
Marek Jurek, a Polish right-wing politician, collected more than 250,000 signatures in support of his registration as candidate for the post of the President of the Republic of Poland. His political party ranked fifth-sixth in the national polls is a new structure established by the candidate after the political "divorce" with the Kaczynski brothers' "Law and Justice" party.
The basis of the political capital of the candidate is his experience in holding the second most senior position in the Polish governmental hierarchy — that of the Speaker of the lower house of the Parliament (the 5th Sejm). He positions himself as an adherent of the conservative economic model, which implies strict budget discipline, graded individual income tax, public participation in the strategic sectors of the Polish economy: energy, defence, and innovative research.
The economic section of his programme — the so-called "National capitalism programme" — is not particularly well developed, being a combination of separate proposals on the system of social support for families (tax reduction for registered families, an increase in maternity pay, a more strict approach to alimony debt recovery, prolongation of maternity leave, social benefits for mothers having many children).
A separate issue, which the candidate pays much attention to in his speeches, is that of joining the euro zone. Mr. Jurek strongly opposes this measure putting forward not only economic but also political arguments (the symbolic meaning of the national currency, the identity of the Polish economy, a probable increase in the influence of international currency regulation institutions on the Polish financial system).
The candidate highlights the following fundamental statements in the economic section of his campaign:
• the elaboration of a motorway construction programme;
• saying "no" to the euro as the national currency;
• providing financial support to agricultural producers.
As to the foreign policy, the candidate presents himself as an advocate of a conservative foreign policy based on the principle of responsibility of developed democracies for the democratic development of developing countries without the involvement of the country in any peacekeeping operations abroad.
Russia, as seen by the politician, is a source of constant geopolitical threat to Poland, an irritant of the internal political process, and an unreliable partner.
The candidate uses the following pivot points as fundamentals of the foreign policy section of his campaign:
• saying "no" to the euro and further European integration;
• supporting the US interests in Central Eastern Europe and in the Caucasus;
• the historical approach to the policy towards the neighbours, responsibility for the development of Ukraine and Belarus.
Jaroslaw Kaczynski is a representative of the "Law and Justice" party, ex-prime minister, the leader of a parliamentary faction. His participation in the campaign has been tentative for a long time: probably, he will have to take part in the presidential election due to the pressure from his environ-
ment, which does not have any other strong candidate. The "Law and Justice" is the second largest party in the Parliament, Jaroslaw Kaczynski also ranks second according to the preferences of the electorate.
In his speech dedicated to his intention to participate in the presidential campaign, he vowed to continue the mission of the late Lech Kaczynski. The election campaign employs the resources of the faction of the "Law and Justice" party, as well as well-developed party structures in the regions.
Jaroslaw Kaczynski shows instability in his views on the ideal image of the Polish economy. In the framework of the campaign of the "Law and Justice" prior to the accession of Poland to the EU, he argued against the accession to the EU advancing economic arguments: the threat to the national economy, the rising pressure on Polish agriculture, unfavourable conditions for the development of SMEs.
His programme, published during the presidential campaign, does not contain a distinct economic section but, to a greater degree, rests on the programme and ideology of the "Law and Justice". The economic section of the programme criticises the liberal economic model and analyses the implementation of the "economic solidarity" policy in the interests of Polish citizens.
The candidate strongly opposes the idea of joining the single European currency zone, putting forward both political and symbol-related arguments (the symbolic meaning of the national currency, the identity of the Polish economy, probable increase in the influence of international currency regulation institutions on the Polish financial system).
The candidate uses the following pivot points in the economic part of his campaign:
• elaborating a programme of economic support to families;
• the extension of the governmental programme of providing support for the development of rural areas;
• the avoidance of the privatisation of enterprises that are strategically important for the national economy.
Bronislaw Komorowski is a representative of the Civic Platform party (the leader of the governing coalition with the Polish People's Party), the acting president of Poland, Speaker of the lower house of the Parliament — Sejm, ex-minister of defence. He had been prepared for the election campaign, which was planned after the end of Lech Kaczynski's presidential term of office. He was the candidate most likely to win the election (after Donald Tusk's public declaration not to participate in the campaign as a candidate).
He is supported by Donald Tusk, the most popular politician in the country according to the interim polls held during the presidential campaign. The support of the prime minister and the governing party is the principal political resource of Bronislaw Komorowski.
According to Bronislaw Komorowski, the Polish economy should focus on the development of small and medium enterprises, taking the advantage of the EU infrastructure funds which enable the Polish economy to adapt to the business conduct in the competitive environment of the EU.
An important economic issue related to political decisions is that of the so-called "energy security" of the country dependent on Russian primary energy suppliers (or companies affiliated with Russian ones). The cornerstone of Bronislaw Komorowski's policy is an increase in the number of players on the internal energy market and the differentiation of primary energy types and sources of energy supply.
The candidate uses the following markers as fundamentals of the economic section of the campaign:
• the introduction of the proportional tax and simplification of taxation for entrepreneurs;
• faster privatisation of public enterprises and corporations;
• stricter budget discipline and the reduction in budget deficit.
Bronislaw Komorowski believes that Polish foreign policy should rest on
a more active role of Poland in the European Union, in particular, in creating united EU military forces. He supports the idea of a consolidated EU opinion on foreign policy issues and recognises the need for the development of relations with the neighbouring countries without implicit cooperation conditions (the abandonment of the historical policy).
An important element of his foreign policy section is energy independence of the country, manifested in the maximum differentiation of primary energy suppliers.
The foreign policy section of the campaign uses the following basic markers:
• the development of relations with the neighbouring countries;
• support for the US foreign policy interests and the strengthening of Polish army with American armament; integration of the country into the system of global military cooperation;
• a more important role of NATO in the formation of the global world.
Janusz Korwin-Mikke is a representative of the "Liberty and Rule of
Law" party, a regular participant of presidential elections. He uses the campaign to build the image of a popular politician. In the previous elections he gained several percent of votes and ranked among the bottom three.
He is not a relevant candidate; his political heft tends to zero. His principal political resource is a number of specialised web-portals, magazines and newspapers. The political party of Korwin-Mikke lacks both a developed structure in the regions and clearly segmented electorate.
Janusz Korwin-Mikke is an interesting version of the libertarian model of the economic conduct of state, which limits the government intervention and implies an effective and well-developed network of regulatory agencies.
The basis of the candidate's economic programme is the tax policy, which suggests almost total abolishment of excise duties and tax on employment, external trade and security transactions, as well as a gradual reduction in customs duties on export and import of goods up to their abolishment.
Janusz Korwin-Mikke's programme does address the issue of the country's participation in the integration economic models of the EU type — the candidate believes the EU is a transit model of economic organisation. Despite his nod to economic freedoms, he points out the red tape and the rule of
"eurocracy" impeding the development of the free entrepreneurship society — the idea the candidate relishes.
The economic section of the candidate's programme contains the following pivot points:
• the abolishment or reduction of most taxes;
• the acceleration of privatisation of public enterprises and corporations;
• stricter budget discipline and a ban on budget deficit.
Janusz Korwin-Mikke does not offer a sufficient model of the conduct of the state regarding foreign policy, merely stressing the need for Poland to fulfil its obligations in the framework of the military alliances, provided the allies abide certain regulations. Neither Russia, nor Germany or the USA is a political model, or a patron for this candidate: the interests of the country may change, thus, the allies should change too.
Andrzej Lepper is a representative of the "Self-Defence of the Republic of Poland" party, who managed to stay in politics despite numerous lawsuits; ex-deputy prime minister and ex-minister of agriculture in the coalition government with the "Law and Justice" and the "League of Polish Families". He is not a relevant candidate in terms of his success in the elections. Apparently, he will try to exploit the campaign in the interests of his party, which is preparing for the upcoming parliamentary election.
Declaring the search for the "third way" — the one between the liberal and social models — this politician, having an expressive character and the charisma of a people's tribune, stoops to populism. His main resource is the support of agricultural trade unions and rural municipalities.
Andrzej Lepper's economic programme combines the principles of new agrarianism and socially oriented economy with the focus on the national producer in the free market conditions.
An important element of his programme is an increasing role of self-regulatory organizations and trade unions, the development of the social security mechanism, and support to families.
Andrzej Lepper pays special attention to the formal institutions of the state control of the economy, suggesting a more important role of the state as a regulatory authority regarding the budget policy, in discount rates, and the management of public debt and foreign loans.
The economic section of his programme rests on the following basic points:
• a campaign against bureaucracy and administrative barriers;
• a ban on the privatisation of the public enterprises and corporations of strategic significance for the country's economy;
• stricter budget discipline and control over budget.
Andrzej Lepper's programme does not contain a tangible foreign policy section. His views on the foreign policy are summed up on the basis of the candidate's speeches and the programme of the "Self-Defence of the Republic of Poland" party.
As to foreign policy elements, the programme employs the following pivot points:
• the improvement of relations with Russia;
• opposition to the transformation of the EU into a federal state project;
• the withdrawal of Polish peacekeeping troops from Iraq and Afghanistan.
Kornel Morawiecki is an independent candidate, although earlier he took part in the establishment of the "Fighting Solidarity" party — the radical conservative wing of the anti-communist camp. His participation in the presidential campaign is rather unexpected: only in few hours before the end of the registration period, he managed to hand in a little more than 100,000 signatures to the election commission.
He is not a relevant candidate; his political heft tends to zero. At the moment of the preparation of the article, his programme did not have a consistent economic policy. The information on his preferences, necessary for the ideological distance model, was retrieved on the basis of the expert review and the analysis of secondary sources (he is against the proportional tax and the privatisation of public enterprises of strategic significance for the Polish economy).
Grzegorz Napieralski, 36, the leader of the "Democratic Left Alliance" party, is the youngest candidate running for presidency. His participation in the campaign was not planned in advance. Initially, the party's candidate was Jerzy Szmajdzinski, who died in the plane crash near Smolensk.
Grzegorz Napieralski counts on the support of the regional leaders in his campaign but faces opposition of other structures of the "Democratic Left Alliance", which do not accept his conciliatory policy towards the "Law and Justice".
Grzegorz Napieralski is one of the few candidates who have clear views on the economic policy, which is a result of the cooperation with the leading scholars in economics (in an interview, Grzegorz Napieralski introduced representatives of the Warsaw School of Economics and the Polish Academy of Sciences as his economic advisers). He is a party candidate, thus, the principal aspects and targets of his economic policy are the development of the ideas of the "Democratic Left Alliance".
An important element of his programme is active participation in the international division of labour, i. e. the maximum involvement of Poland in the world economic relations.
The following fundamental points form the basis of the economic section of the candidate's campaign:
• a campaign against bureaucracy and administrative barriers;
• increasing investment in education and research, the formation of innovative economy;
• the introduction of the so-called kosciol (church) tax (following the example of Germany);
• maximum involvement of Poland in the system of world economic ties.
The candidate offers a foreign policy programme typical of the European
social democratic tradition, which suggests the combination of the responsibility and non-interference models. Napieralski supports the concept of a "wider Europe", open to other states.
As to the foreign policy elements, the programme employs the following basic ones:
• the improvement of relations with Russia and the CIS;
• responsibility for the development of Ukraine and Belarus;
• maximum involvement of Poland in the global politics.
Andrzej Olechowski, ex-minister of foreign affairs, is an independent candidate, although his political past is connected with the "Civic Platform", in the foundation of which he took an important part. He does not overrate his chances in the campaign but considers his participation as lodging a protest against the lack of political dialogue and an opportunity to discuss the most acute problems of Polish society with the main candidates for the presidential post.
Andrzej Olechowski tries to convert his financial capabilities into a political resource being the most affluent candidate for presidency. He uses a number of marginal right liberal organisations under the auspices of the "Democratic Party" as a political resource, being the formal chair of the party council.
The basis of his economic programme is a variant of the liberal model of the economy, which does not go beyond the tradition of the "Civic Platform". He is the only candidate who stresses the fundamental character of his economic programme.
The issue of Poland's participation in the common economic space of the EU is comprehensively covered in the candidate's programme: the participation in the common policy system is a necessary condition for the development of Poland as an independent player in the economic arena. In his understanding, economic policy is the prerogative of the government, the role of the president should be strengthened as that of an arbitrator in economic processes against the decrease of the role of the state as a regulator of economic processes.
The following points are fundamental in the economic section of the candidate's campaign:
• a campaign against bureaucracy and administrative barriers;
• the use of personal contacts for attracting international investors;
• increasing influence of international capital on the Polish economy.
This candidate did not present an integral programme regarding the foreign policy issues; the high level of generalisation and the overstating of the problems of the modern world and the role of Poland in it are peculiar to his speeches and interviews.
The information on the candidate's attitude to the markers used in the tables was retrieved from his earlier statements and actions, expert reviews and the analysis of secondary sources.
Waldemar Pawlak is the leader of the Polish "People's Party"; ex-prime minister in the coalition government with the "Civic Platform". Being the leader of the party over a long period, he managed to form the biggest coalition potential of the party, which joined both the left and right of centre governments. Several times he emphasised the need to revise the role of president in the political system aiming at the expansion of presidential power.
His campaign is based on the principles of direct communication of his representatives, which is a wise decision, since the party has a well-developed network of organisations at a lower level, predominantly in the agricultural voivodships. The candidate is supported by such influential organisations as the 'Polish Union of Volunteer Fire Brigades', hunter and fishermen unions, etc.
Waldemar Pawlak's party is supported mostly in the rural regions of Poland. This fact predetermines his economic programme. The candidate is the minister of economy of the present government, thus, he has the freedom of a political manoeuvre during the current campaign.
His economic programme differs from the programme of Donald Tusk's government presented in the form of a short report at the parliamentary vote over the formation of the coalition government. The differences lie in the field of the fiscal regulation of agriculture and the restructuring of the energy policy.
The economic section of the campaign uses the following basic markers:
• a campaign against bureaucracy and administrative barriers;
• the development of a "closed cycle" enterprises in the framework of the "green economy" concept;
• the creation of favourable tax conditions for agricultural producers.
The information on the candidate's attitude to the markers used in the tables was retrieved from his earlier statements and actions, expert reviews and the analysis of secondary sources.
Boguslaw Zi^tek is a candidate of the "Polish Labour Party", the chair of the "August 90" free trade union. The party is the "largest non-parliamentary left-wing party in the country", which widely employs direct political actions and civilian protests.
Zi^tek is not a relevant candidate; his political heft tends to zero. His political party has neither a developed structure in the regions, nor loyal voters. He tries to attract the radical left and members of youth leftist groups to support his campaign.
This candidate does nothing to conceal his antiliberal and anticapitalist views offering a mixture of populist, libertarian, and protectionist measures in the economic section of his programme.
His economic postulates presented in the programme resolve into a campaign for minimal social security for all workers, the maintenance of jobs in the industries undergoing restructuring (mines, steel mills, shipbuilding, and defence). One of the central issues in his economic platform is the candidate's opposition to the privatisation of certain elements of the healthcare system.
The following markers are used as fundamentals in the economic section of the candidate's campaign:
• a campaign against bureaucracy, administrative barriers, and employer and entrepreneur organisations;
• the withdrawal of the privileges of the better off population;
• social security for workers and agricultural producers;
• the establishment of the single minimum wage for all EU states.
At the moment of the preparation of the article, the candidate's programme did not have a consistent foreign policy section. The information on the candidate's attitude to the markers used in the tables was retrieved from his earlier statements and actions, expert reviews and the analysis of secondary sources.
The views of the candidates on the economic policy issues
N Candidate Trade unions Social insurance Public healthcare Privatisation of enterprises of strategic important for the ecomony Proportional tax Introduction of the euro Privatisation of mass media Expansion of presidential power in economy
1 Bronislaw Komorow-ski «=» «+» «=» «=» «+» «+» «=» «+»
2 Andrzej Olechowski «=» «+» «=» «=» «+» «+» «=» «+»
3 Kornel Morawiecki, «+» «+» «+» «=»
4 Janusz Korwin-Mikke «-» «+» «+»
5 Marek Jurek «=» «+» «=» «=» «-» «+»
6 Jaroslaw Kaczynski «+» «+» «+» «-» «+» «+» «+»
7 Andrzej Lepper «+» «+» «+» «+» «+» «+»
8 Boguslaw Ziçtek «+» «+» «+» «+» «+»
9 Waldemar Pawlak «+» «+» «+» «=» «+» «+» «=»
10 Grzegorz Napieralski «+» «+» «+» «+» «+» «-» «-»
Comment: «+» — positive attitude; «=» — neutral attitude; «-» — negative atti-
tude.
The views of the candidates on the foreign policy issues
N Candidate Relations with Russia Relations with the USA Closer EU integration A more important role in the Visegrad Group, Eastern Europe, and the Caucasus political blocs The Iraq and Afghanistan wars The expansion of NATO Expansion of presidential power in the foreign policy Historical memory as the basis of the foreign policy
1 Bronislaw Komorowski «=» «+» «+» «+» «+» «+» «+» «+»
2 Andrzej Olechowski «=» «+» «=» «=» «+» «=» «+» «=»
3 Kornel Morawiecki «=» «+» «+» «-» «+»
4 Janusz Korwin-Mikke «+»
5 Marek Jurek «+» «=» «+» «+» «+»
6 Jaroslaw Kaczynski «+» «+» «+» «+» «+» «+» «+» «+»
7 Andrzej Lepper «+» «+» «+» «+» «-» «+»
8 Boguslaw Ziçtek «=» «+» «+» «+» «-» «=»
9 Waldemar Pawlak «=» «=» «+» «=» «+» «=» «=»
10 Grzegorz Napieralski «+» «+» «+» «+» «+» «-» «-»
Comment: «+» — positive attitude; «=» — neutral attitude; «-» — negative attitude.
Ideological distance: foreign policy
Bronistaw] GrzegorzNapieralski"^ Comorowski i ^Andrzej Olechowski
Waldemar Pawlak j jfl 'KornelMorawiecki
BogustawZiçtek ■ K ^Janusz Korwin-Mikke
Andrzej Lepper* ^ Jaroslaw F ■- --"Marek Jnrek Kaczynski
■ Ideological distance: the foreign policy issues
The registered candidates for the presidential post can be divided into three groups:
• relevant candidates ranked from first to fourth who, under certain circumstances, have a chance to proceed to the second round — Bronislaw Komorowski, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, Grzegorz Napieralski, Waldemar Pawlak, and Marek Jurek (in case Kaczynski withdraws his candidature);
• the candidates ranked from fourth to seventh who will support one of the relevant candidates in the second round (Andrzej Lepper, Waldemar Pawlak, Marek Jurek, Andrzej Olechowski);
• non-relevant candidates who will be out of the running for presidency in the second round (Kornel Morawiecki, Janusz Korwin-Mikke, Boguslaw Zi^tek).
The presidential election was not scheduled in advance, which affects the course of the campaign and the conduct of the candidates. Thus, the participants of the campaign can be further divided into:
• the candidates who started the presidential campaign preparation beforehand (Bronislaw Komorowski, Janusz Korwin-Mikke, Andrzej Lepper, Waldemar Pawlak, Marek Jurek);
• the candidates who participate in the election as a substitute for the candidates who died in the plan crash near Smolensk (Jaroslaw Kaczynski, Grzegorz Napieralski).
There is no pronounced programme and ideological opposition in the framework of the campaign; none of the relevant candidates offers an extraordinary economic or foreign policy agenda (an exception is the antisystem players — Janusz Korwin-Mikke, and Boguslaw Zi^tek).
The economic section of the presidential campaign covers a standard set issues which are of secondary important for the economy (the usual agenda), which belong to the realm of the government rather than the president. The candidates do not have consistent action plans (unlike Donald Tusk and Lech Kaczynski in the previous campaign) regarding the implementation of their theses.
In view of the fact, that it is a relevant player who will win the election, there will be no change to the economic policy.
As to the foreign policy, the content of the campaign is rather emotional; in particular, it concerns Polish-Russian relations after the memorial service in Katyn and the consequences of the presidential plane crash near Smolensk.
It is a mistake to place candidates along the pro-Russian-anti-Russian or pro-American-anti-American political vectors. The consolidation of all interparty discussions on the issues of secondary importance for the foreign policy means no change in the approach to the issues of extraordinary choice.
In view of the fact, that it is a relevant player who will win the election, there will be no change in the foreign policy of the country.
Bibliography
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2. Ustawa z dnia 27 wrzesnia 1990 r. o wyborze Prezydenta Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej (Dz. U. Nr 67, poz. 398)// Sejm Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej. 2010. May. URL: http://www. sejm. gov. pl/prawo/prezydent/prez5.htm (дата обращения: 25.05.2010).
