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131Взрывы «Северного потока» и стоящая за ними геополитическая игра
Жуюй Инь
кандидат политических наук, доцент Центра изучения России, Восточной Европы и Центральной Азии Ляонинского университета, [email protected]
Кайянь Чжон
аспирант Школы международной экономики и международных отношений экономического факультета Ляонинского университета, [email protected].
В конце сентября 2022 года взорвались два газопровода «Северный поток», вызвавшие серьезный международный резонанс. Многосторонние провели расследования и анализы по темам «кто руководил взрывом» и «последствия взрыва Nord Stream». С одной стороны, сложилось мнение, что взрыв газопровода «Северный поток» был саботажем, но по вопросу «кто этим занимается» у всех сторон разные точки зрения, и они не пришли к каким-либо результатам. С другой стороны, разрушение мира во всем мире, за которое расплачиваются рядовые европейцы, вызовы европейской энергетической безопасности и политической безопасности, обострение конфликтов между Россией, США и Европой, загрязнение окружающей среды, малые и средние Страны, которые, вероятно, выиграют от этого, являются основными последствиями взрыва «Северного потока». Исследования показали, что трубопроводы Nord Stream глубоко вовлечены в водоворот геополитических игр, в основном между Россией, США и Европой.
Ключевые слова: «Северный поток»; энергия; геополитическая игра; Россия; Европа; Соединенные Штаты
Источник финансирования: Общий проект молодежного исследовательского фонда Ляонинского университета «Внутренняя логика и эмпирический анализ теории «мягкого баланса» на постсоветском пространстве» (Ьй0М2020005)
The explosion story of Nord Stream
The Nord Stream pipeline includes two parallel natural gas pipelines, "Nord Stream 1" and "Nord Stream 2", which start from Russia in the east and cross the Baltic Sea to Germany. They are the energy lifeline between Russia and European countries. On September 26, local time, two underwater explosions occurred in the area where the gas leaked from the "Nord Stream 1" and "Nord Stream 2" natural gas pipelines. After further investigation, four leaks were found on the Nord Stream pipelines. Many countries expressed their shock at the explosion of the Nord Stream pipelines. The cause of the blast and the resulting impact has become the focus of international attention. As the key players in the Nord Stream pipeline game, Russia, the United States, and Europe will view this incident from their interests. The explosion of the Nord Stream pipeline will bring new unstable factors to national, regional, and global development.
Multiple reactions after the Nord Stream pipeline explosion
The international community has concluded that manufactured sabotage, not an accident, caused the Nord Stream pipeline explosions. For example, NATO stated the leak of the "Nord Stream" natural gas pipeline, saying that the channel had been "deliberately, recklessly and irresponsibly sabotaged". [1]European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the leak was due to "sabotage" and called for the "strongest response" to any deliberate sabotage of Europe's energy infrastructure. She urged an investigation to understand "the incident and its causes fully". [2]
The question is who should be responsible for the explosions. First, the West believes that Russia is bluffing and pretending to be fake. German Economy Minister Robert Habeck suggested Russia was responsible for the explosion of two Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea, telling reporters after a meeting of EU energy ministers in Brussels: "Russia saying, 'we didn't do it' is like saying 'I'm not a thief,'" and he dismissed claims from Kremlin officials that Russia had nothing to do with the events. [3] European officials have accused the Kremlin of believing that only Russia had the motive, diving equipment, and capability to create a Nord Stream explosion to threaten the European continent. Still, they have no direct evidence of Russian involvement. [4] Ukraine
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blamed Russia for the leak on two major gas pipelines heading to Europe, calling it a "terrorist attack". Hans Tino Hansen, chief executive of a Danish security firm that deals with maritime issues, said: "This is a very typical Russian hybrid warfare approach, and if Russia attacks the Nord Stream pipelines. " This will show that they are "completely able to prevaricate". [5] Western leaders strongly suspect that Russia is behind the attack. [6]
Second, the Swedish Prosecutor's Office announced on October 3 that they would block the waters near the leak of the "North Stream" gas pipelines and they will launch a criminal investigation, [7] but did not invite Russia to take part in the research. Swedish Prime Minister Andersson stated Sweden would not share the investigation results of the "North Stream" gas pipeline explosion with Russia. [8] After that, Sweden also refused to form a joint investigation team (JIT) with Denmark and Germany. Swedish prosecutor Mats Ljungqvist said that it's because some information in the investigation is classified information directly related to national security." [9] In late October, both Sweden and Denmark announced preliminary studies. The results only said that the explosion caused the pipeline leak and did not say who should be responsible. [10] The Kremlin said that the investigation into the blast of the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline was "tailor-made" to assign responsibility to Russia. [11] In addition, the Russian side believes that "traces of the West" [12] are behind the damage to the "North Stream" natural gas pipeline. Putin's inference is, whichever country benefits the most from the incident is the most likely to commit the crime, implying that the United States is the biggest suspect. The Russian side launched a separate investigation into the matter. On October 29, the Russian Ministry of Defense pointed out that British naval personnel were participants in the Nord Stream pipeline explosion, according to the investigation information. [13] But on the same day, the British Ministry of Defense denied that the Russian side. At present, according to the investigation and analysis, there is no clear result on the question of "who is responsible for this".
Given the disapproval of successive U.S. administrations and their disapproval of Europe's excessive dependence on Russia for energy supply, the U.S. has the motive of sabotaging Russian gas pipelines. U.S. Secretary of State Blinken commented afterward that the Nord Stream pipeline explosion was the best time to eliminate energy dependence on Russia. [14] He believes the leakage will not significantly impact Europe's energy supply and reiterated that the United States is working hard to solve Europe's short-term and long-term energy security issues. But so far, there is no evidence to prove that the United States indeed did it. So far, no country or organization has claimed responsibility for the incident, and there is no reliable evidence pointing to who is the maker of the incident.
The impact of the Nord Stream pipeline explosions
It is undermining the basic principles of maintaining world peace. The bombing of the Nord Stream pipeline
cut off the physical connection between Russia and Europe, with an enormous flow of natural gas and the most efficient operation. In addition, another severe consequence was to open a dangerous precedent of deliberately destroying major international civilian energy infrastructure, which was called "first time in modern history". As soon as this precedent was set, the basic principles of maintaining world peace established after World War II was destroyed. As long as a country wants to achieve its own strategic goals, it can attack the significant infrastructure of the opponent (group), whether it is military or civilian. Launching a devastating blow will have catastrophic and severe consequences (such as bombing reservoir dams, high-voltage power grids, nuclear power installations, natural gas, oil backbone pipeline networks, etc.). International treaties and national credit will lose their binding and normative functions. The world will return to the law of the jungle where the weak can prey on the strong, and human civilization will regress sharply and even return to the dark Middle Ages. [15]
Ordinary Europeans will pay for this geopolitical game. The economic cost caused by the "North Stream Incident" will be hefty. In the short term, the "North Stream Incident" completely ruined the possibility of Russia's restoration of gas supply to Europe through the Nord Stream Pipeline. The problem of energy supply shortage in Europe has become more prominent. "Economic bills" such as high energy prices will eventually fall on innocent European people. According to data from the European Natural Gas Infrastructure Association, as of November 7, European countries have sufficient natural gas reserves, and most EU countries have over 90% of their natural gas reserves. Britain, Portugal, and Belgium have reached 100%, and Germany and France have reached 99%. [16] Coupled with implementing strict energy-saving measures and the supplementation of diversified energy sources, as long as this winter is not freezing, Europe can survive the winter safely. However, it will be uncomfortable. However, the International Energy Agency analyzed relevant data and pointed out that even if the natural gas reserves of EU countries reach 90%, if Russia completely cuts off the natural gas supply, the EU will face a greater risk of supply disruption. [17] European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU must promote joint gas purchases when natural gas inventories are exhausted next spring. [18]
The "North Stream incident" will lead to a continuous reduction of Russian gas exports to Europe, and European countries will have to increase their imports of high-priced energy from the United States. With LNG prices expected to rise to 150 euros per megawatt-hour by the end of 2023, filling storage by next winter will require the EU to import more gas, said Capital Economics commodities economist Bill Weatherburn. Liquefied natural gas is needed to replenish Russian gas imports lost for an entire year. German Deputy Chancellor and Minister of Economy and Climate Protection Robert Habeck stated that because of the purchase of natural gas from sources other than Russia, energy costs are higher than in the
past. Germany's economic loss this year will be close to 60 billion euros, and the loss may be close to 100 billion euros next year. [19] The sharp rise in natural gas and oil prices has also significantly affected production. The European economy is likely to fall into stagflation, which will make people's lives worse, and they will fall into a stalemate of gas cutoff, reducing their original living standards.
Europe's energy security and even political security are affected. As the "main artery" of European energy, the "North Stream" natural gas pipelines are related to the energy security of the entire European continent. Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel once pointed out that the " North Stream 2" natural gas pipeline project could improve European energy security and diversify the natural gas supply. [20] Although " North Stream 1" barely maintained gas transmission for more than half a year, on August 30, the Russian side suspended gas transmission in the name of maintenance. Nord Stream 1's supply reduction and suspension issue threaten European energy security. Andrew Crook, a US political analyst in Moscow, commented on social media that the bombing of the Nord Stream pipeline had destroyed people's trust in the reliability of energy transmission from Russia to Germany. The attack on the Nord Stream pipeline shows Europe's vulnerability. Although the background is unclear, this will bring more unity to European sanctions negotiations on Russia. The incident is just a profile of the energy crisis and inflation crisis triggered by the Ukraine crisis. This crisis is weakening Europe's economic prospects and profoundly changing Europe's political landscape, accelerating the rise of populist forces in Europe, and increasing the uncertainty of European policies. [21] Behind the construction and operation of any cross-border long-distance oil and gas pipeline across the Eurasian continent, there are a lot of diplomatic mediation and big power games, and the Nord Stream pipeline is no exception. To "de-dollarize", Russia will agree that more and more energy transactions will be settled in euros, which will challenge the status of the US dollar. The Nord Stream pipeline involves energy trade between the United States and Europe and affects modern industry and the modern currency credit system. In recent years, Europe's diplomatic autonomy has been continuously enhanced, and it has challenged the United States in automobiles, aviation, and agriculture. The United States not only needs European countries to take part in sanctions against Russia but also to weaken economic cooperation between Europe and Russia to realize the dual goal of the United States to "strike Russia and weaken Europe".
The contradiction between Russia, the United States, and Europe have further intensified. The construction of the "North Stream 2" pipeline has fully reflected the geopolitical energy game between Russia, the United States, and the European Union. It has once again activated the contradiction between Russia and the United States, brought discord within the European Union, and intensified the crisis in transatlantic relations between the United States and
the major countries of the European Union. [22] The subtle space-time node where the North Stream pipelines were destroyed shows that the energy game between Europe and Russia may further escalate. The explosion of the Nord Stream pipelines, from a geopolitical point of view, in the further escalation of the current Ukrainian crisis, Russia, the United States and European countries will evaluate and use this incident from their perspectives, which may further intensify conflicts.
Leading to global greenhouse gas environmental pollution. The destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline also brought a large amount of greenhouse gas emissions. Climate scientists said if humans cause this kind of damage, it is equivalent to an environmental crime. The major component of natural gas, methane, is a greenhouse gas with a more substantial effect than carbon dioxide. According to the United Nations Environment Programme, this may be the most significant methane leak on record. Swedish experts calculated that the methane gas produced by the leak in Benxi is equivalent to 40 million tons of carbon dioxide, comparable to Sweden's 48 million tons of greenhouse gas emissions last year. The Norwegian Atmospheric Institute said at least 80,000 tons of methane gas has diffused into the ocean and atmosphere. [23] The leak's impact is roughly equivalent to taking 400,000 cars on the road for a year.
Small and medium-sized countries such as Poland and Turkey may benefit from the game of great powers. [24] After the Nord Stream pipeline explosion, some analysts believe that Poland's status as a European energy center may improve. On the day of the Nord Stream pipeline accident on the 27th, Poland launched the launching ceremony of the Baltic Sea Gas Pipeline Project, which connects Norway's natural gas fields with Poland through Denmark. The Polish government considers it a major strategic project to diversify the natural gas supply and eliminate dependence on Russian energy. [25] Former Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski posted on social media, "Thank you, USA", which is essential because of the complete interruption of Russian-European gas transmission because of the explosion. In blocked maritime transportation, the importance of land transportation has increased. Poland's geopolitical and economic status in Europe will be highlighted, and it can improve its game chips by collecting transit taxes and fees. Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the Turkish Creek might become Russia's main gas pipeline to Europe, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan responded positively. But Turkey needs to strike a delicate balance between avoiding increasing its dependence on Russia and preventing damaging relations with the West. [26]
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Conclusion K
Currently, the Nord Stream pipelines are deeply o involved in the vortex of geopolitical games. The multi- | party game surrounding the Nord Stream pipeline n vividly reflects the foreign strategic demands of Russia, a the United States, and the European Union after the c Ukraine crisis. The battlefield dynamics of Russia and ^
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Ukraine, the progress of the "de-Russification" of European energy sources, and the sincerity of Turkey's cooperation will all have a crucial impact on the outcome of the Nord Stream pipeline.
References
1. ws 'united and determined' response in event of energy infrastructure attacks. S&P Global Commodity Insights. 29/09/2022. URL: https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/mark et-insights/latest-news/electric -power/092922-nato-vows-united-and-determined-response-in-event-of-energy-infrastructure-attacks
2. Jorge Liboreiro. 'Sabotage' and 'deliberate acts' suspected in mysterious Nord Stream leaks, EU says. Euronews, https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/09/28/sabotage-and-deliberate- acts-suspected-in-mysterious-nord-stream-leaks-eu-says
3. Germany Implies Russia to Blame for Damage to Gas Pipelines. Bloomberg. 30/09/2022. URL: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-30/germany-implies-russia-to- blame-for-damage-to-gas-pipelines?leadSource=uverify%20wall
4. European leaders blame Russian 'sabotage' after Nord Stream explosions. The Washington Post. 27/09/2022.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/27/no rd-stream-gas-pipelines-damage -russia/
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8. https://www.dw.com/en/germany-launches-probe-into-suspected-nord-stream-sabotage/a-63397922
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10.Sweden won't share Nord Stream investigation findings with Russia. Reuters. 11/10/2022. URL: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/sweden-wont-share-nord-stream-investigation-findings -with-russia-pm-2022-10-10/
11.Sweden shuns formal joint investigation Nord Stream leak citing national. Reuters. 14/10/2022. URL: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/sweden-shuns-formal-joint-investigation-nord-stream- leak-citing-national-2022-10-14/
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13. Nord Stream Probe 'Tailored' Against Russia -Kremlin. The Moscow Times. 18/10/2022.
14. https://www.themoscowtimes .com/2022/10/18/n ord-stream-probe-tailored-against-russia-kremlin-a79113
15.Official says Russia collects facts on Nord Stream sabotage, sees Western trace. TASS. 03/10/2022. URL: https://tass.com/russia/1516767
16. Russia says British forces blew up Nord Stream; UK denies claim. Aljazeera. 29/10/2022. URL: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/29/russia-says-uk-navy- blew-up-nord-stream-london-denies-claim
17. Nord Stream explosions are a 'tremendous opportunity' - US. Russia Today. 01/10/2022. URL: https://www.rt.com/news/563861-blinken-nord-stream-opportunity/
18.Chen Weidong. Who blew up the Beixi pipeline? J. Energy, 2022(10):74-76.
19. Data source: European Gas Infrastructure Association. 7 November 2022. https://agsi.gie.eu/
20. Even with gas storage at 90%, the European Union would face heightened risk of supply disruptions if there is a complete Russian cut-off. IEA. 26/10/2022. URL: https://www.iea.org/data -and-statistics/charts/even-with-gas-storage-at-90-the-european-union-would-face-heightened-risk-of-supply-disruptions-if-there-is-a-complete-russian -cut-off
21. EU's von der Leyen: more detailed energy measures in next weeks. Reuters. 07/10/2022. URL: https://www.reuters.com/article/eu-summit-vonderleyen-idUKS8N30L05G
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Nord Stream explosions and the geopolitical game behind it 40.
Ruyu Yin, Kaiyan Zhong
Liaoning University
At the end of September 2022, two Nord Stream pipelines exploded, which
aroused solid international repercussions. Multi-party conducted 41. investigations and analyses around the themes of "who handled the explosion" and "the impact of the Nord Stream explosion". On the one hand, it has become a consensus that the explosion of the Nord Stream pipeline was sabotage, but on the question of "who handles it", all parties 42. have different points, and they have concluded no results. On the other hand, the destruction of world peace, ordinary Europeans paying for it, the challenges of European energy security and political security, the 43. intensification of conflicts between Russia, the United States, and Europe, environmental pollution, and small and medium-sized countries probably 44. benefiting from it are the primary effects caused by the Nord Stream explosion. Studies have shown that the Nord Stream pipelines are deeply 45. involved in the vortex of geopolitical games, mainly between Russia, the United States, and Europe. 46.
Keywords: Nord Stream; energy; geopolitical game; Russia; Europe; the United State
Funding source: Liaoning University Youth Research Fund General Project
"Inner Logic and Empirical Analysis of the 'Soft Balance' Theory in the 47. Post-Soviet Space" (LDQN2020005)
References
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32. Jorge Liboreiro. 'Sabotage' and 'deliberate acts' suspected in mysterious Nord Stream leaks, EU says. Euronews, https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/09/28/sabotage-and-deliberate- acts-suspected-in-mysterious-nord-stream-leaks-eu-says
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34. European leaders blame Russian 'sabotage' after Nord Stream 53. explosions. The Washington Post. 27/09/2022. 54. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/27/nord-stream-gas-pipelines-damage -russia/
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59.
60.
Sweden won't share Nord Stream investigation findings with Russia.
Reuters. 11/10/2022. URL:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/sweden-wont-share-nord-stream-
investigation-findings -with-russia-pm-2022-10-10/
Sweden shuns formal joint investigation Nord Stream leak citing national.
Reuters. 14/10/2022. URL:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/sweden-shuns-formal-joint-
investigation-nord-stream- leak-citing-national-2022-10-14/
Sweden to further investigate Nord Stream pipeline damage. Reuters.
28/10/2022. URL: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/sweden-further-
investigate-nord-stream-pipeline-damage-2022- 10-28/
Nord Stream Probe 'Tailored' Against Russia - Kremlin. The Moscow
Times. 18/10/2022.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/10/18/nord-stream-probe-tailored-against-russia-kremlin-a79113
Official says Russia collects facts on Nord Stream sabotage, sees Western trace. TASS. 03/10/2022. URL: https://tass.com/russia/1516767 Russia says British forces blew up Nord Stream; UK denies claim. Aljazeera. 29/10/2022. URL:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/29/russia-says-uk-navy- blew-up-nord-stream-london-denies-claim
Nord Stream explosions are a 'tremendous opportunity' - US. Russia Today. 01/10/2022. URL: https://www.rt.com/news/563861-blinken-nord-stream-opportunity/
Chen Weidong. Who blew up the Beixi pipeline? J. Energy, 2022(10):74-76.
Data source: European Gas Infrastructure Association. 7 November 2022. https://agsi.gie.eu/
Even with gas storage at 90%, the European Union would face heightened risk of supply disruptions if there is a complete Russian cut-off. IEA. 26/10/2022. URL: https://www.iea.org/data -and-statistics/charts/even-with-gas-storage-at-90-the-european-union-would-face-heightened-risk-of-supply-disruptions-if-there-is-a-complete-russian -cut-off EU's von der Leyen: more detailed energy measures in next weeks. Reuters. 07/10/2022. URL: https://www.reuters.com/article/eu-summit-vonderleyen-idUKS8N30L05G
Germany must utilize fiscal policy to support economy - Habeck. Reuters. 22/09/2022. URL:
https://www.reuters.com/article/germany-economy-idAFL8N30T4IC Merkel sees no threat in new gas pipe to Russia, Poland disagrees. Reuters. 16/02/2018. URL: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-poland-idUSKCN1G01DJ
Han Yadong, Xue Peng. Beixi Pipeline N. in Political Vortex. China Discipline Inspection and Supervision News, 2022-09-29(005). Tong Shan, Gou Liwu. "Beixi-2" pipeline construction and the energy game between Russia, the United States and Europe J. Modern International Relations, 2020(05), p.25.
Methane leaks from Nord Stream: A serious pollution event. NILU. 29/09/2022. URL: https://www.nilu.com/2022/09/methane-leaks-from-nord-stream-a-serious- pollution-event/
"North Stream" Pipeline "Leaks" American Public Opinion Fryer", Xinhuanet, October 2, 2022, http://www.news.cn/2022-10/01/c_1129047555.htm
Alasdair Sandford. Baltic Pipe: Norway-Poland gas pipeline opens in key
move to cut dependency on Russia. Euronews,
https://www.euronews.com/2022/09/27/baltic-pipe-norway-poland-gas-
pipeline-opens-in-key-move-to-cut-dependency-on-russia
Erdogan tempted by Putin's proposal to make Turkey gas hub for Europe.
The Arab Weekly. 14/10/2022. URL: https://thearabweekly.com/erdogan-
tempted-putins-proposal-make-turkey-gas-hub- europe
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