НА ПУТИ ПРЕОДОЛЕНИЯ “БОЛЬШОГО ЛОКДАУНА”: ВОССТАНОВЛЕНИЕ ИЛИ НОВЫЙ СПАД?

Мкртчян Татевик

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1 Sb'u International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook: A Long and Difficult Ascent, October 2020:

2 Sb'u Sheiner L., Yilla K., The ABCs of the Post-COVID Economic Recovery, Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy, May 4, 2020:

3 https://conference-board.org/topics/natural-disasters-pandemics/CEOs-around-the-Globe-Not-Optimistic-about-Speed-of-Recovery

4 https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/covid19-recovery-shape-economy-ceo/

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5 Sb'u EBRD Regional Prospects in the EBRD Regions Covid-19: Early Estimates of the Damage, uncertain prospects, September 2020:

6 https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-eurozone-economy-poll/euro-zone-economic-outlook-steady-but job-recovery-at-high-risk-reuters-poll-idUKKCN25G005?il=0

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7 Sb'u EBRD Regional Prospects in the EBRD Regions Covid-19: Early Estimates of the Damage, uncertain prospects, September 2020.

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9 Sb'u ILO Monitor: COVID-19 and the World of Work. Fifth edition. Updated estimates and analysis. 30 June 2020:

10 Sb'u ILO Monitor 1st edition, Covid-19 and the world of work: Impact and Policy Responses, 18 March 2020:

" Sb'u Andersen A. L., Hansen E. T., Johannesen N., Sheridan A., Pandemic, Shutdown and Consumer Spending: Lessons from Scandinavian Policy Responses to COVID-19, 2020, Papers arXiv, May 2005:

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12 https://www.armstat.am/am/?nid=12&id=01001, https://www.geostat.ge/media/33681/Gross-Domestic-Product-of-Georgia—ll-Quarter%2C-2020.pdf

13 http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/

14 https://www.belstat.gov.by/en/ofitsialnaya-statistika/real-sector-of-the-economy/national-accounts/current-data/

15 https://tradingeconomics.com/estonia/gdp-growth-annual

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16 Я-0шы|Ш1п1|Ьр[1 l|iuqilh[ t hbr\[iliujL|[i' Quin https://www.armstat.am/file/doc/99520928.pdf,

http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/, https://www.belstat.gov.by/en/ofitsialnaya-statistika/real-sector-of-the-

http://andmebaas.stat.ee/lndex.aspx?lang=en&DataSetCode=RAA0050# ini|jiu|tjbpfi:

17 Llju U unLjli ii|UjpphpnL|ajiuti Jjmu uii|jiu[übp[i uib'u https://www.armstat.am/am/?nid=82&id=2291

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19 https://www.armstat.am/am/?nid=82&id=2291

20 https://www.stat.ee/en/uudised/teise-kvartali-majanduslangus-oli-69

21 https://gnta.ge/statistics/

23 Sb'u ILO Monitor: COVID-19 and the world of work. Fifth edition. Updated estimates and analysis, 30 June 2020.

q.iuL|Li ai6b[ liiufunpr|. iniupi|iu LuiljLi duiiIiutiiul|iu2P2wli|i hoiiibJuJu^nLfЭJUJ^Jp, 0.3%-iuj|ili l|binni|; 2020 p. bpl|pnpr|. bniuiIujiul|nLii, inliinbunLpjiuti ingnxuriLlinil iqiujiiiuliiui|npi|iud, qnp&iuqpl|nLpjiuli iiiul|wpr|xul|ti iu6b[ t <.iujiuuiniutinLiI, 4piuuiniulmuj, PIlL|piu |iti lujnLii Li tuLnnti|iiujnLir 1.5-2%-iuj|iti l|binni(: Pb[iurinL-unld li2i|w& grugujli^q l|p6iuLni|b[ t 0.2%-luj|iIi l|binni| (qdiuii|iuinl|bp 3): Piugfi lipiuli|ig, np Pb|wnnLUQ uiuhdiutjiui|iiul|nrL JligngiunnLJlibp l||ipiunbL, ulu IiluU u|iujdiutjiui|npi|iu& t LntiLnbunLpjrutjnLd qpiuqi|iu&nLpjiutj l|iunnLgi|iu&j)iuj|'itj LuriLuli5liLuhLumL|nLpjnLliljbpnL[. Pb[iurinLunLJ qpiuqi|iu&libp|i qpbpb 40%-p u|b-miul|iuli hiumi|w&h w2|uwLnnqtjbp nPD> ^wpbiJi t wub[, bpiu2fuLui|npnLd t LjlujnlIj qpiuqi|iu&nLpjnLli24: ^wdbdiuinnLpjiutj hiudiup ti2trtip, np CiujiuumiulinLd qpiuqi|iu&libp|i JnLniui|npiuii|bu 25%-h t qpiuqi|iu& inbinbunLpjiutj u|bLniul|iuli hiuini|iu&nLiI25:

24 https://www.belstat.gov.by/en/ofitsialnaya-statistika/Demographic-and-social-statistics/employment/annual-data/

26 9-Siuii|winl)bpQ l|iuqiib[ t hbrijitiiuliQ1 purn https://www.armstat.am/am/?nid=82&id=2307, https://www.geostat.ge/en/modules/categories/38/employment-and-unemployment, https://index.minfin.com.ua/labour/unemploy/, https://www.belstat.gov.by/en/ofitsialnaya-statistika/Demographic-and-social-statistics/employment/current-data/labour-force-survey/, https://www.stat.ee/en/find-statistics/statistics-theme/work-life/labour-market/unemployment-rate

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28 Sb'u World Economic Outlook: A Long and Difficult Ascent, IMF October 2020:

29 9-6iuii|iuinl|bpQ l|iuqLib[ t hbirJibiuliQ" purn https://www.armstat.am/am/?nid=586,

https://andmed.stat.ee/en/stat/sotsiaalelu_tooturg_heivatud_aastastatistika/TT0200,

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https://www.belstat.gov.by/en/ofitsialnaya-statistika/Demographic-and-social-statistics/employment/annual-data/, https://www.geostat.ge/en/modules/categories/38/employment-and-unemployment, http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ ini|jw|bbp|i:

30 1991-2015 pp. J|i2hb gmgwb^b t: Sb'u Medina L., Schneider F., Shadow Economies Around the World: What Did We Learn Over the Last 20 Years? IMF Working Paper, WP/18/17, January 2018, t2 50-54:

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31 https://www.armstat.am/am/?nid=586

32 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.EMP.WORK.ZS?locations=AM-BY-EE-GE-UA

33 °l-&wii|winl|bp[i L|iuqJb[ t hb^tiiuLiQ' Quin https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.EMP.SELF.ZS?locations=AM-BY-EE-GE-UA, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.EMP.VULN.ZS?locations=AM-BY-EE-GE-UA uii|jiu[Ubnh:

34 Sb'u Honorati M., Johansson de Silva S., Millan N., Kerschbaumer F., Work For a Better Future For Armenia: An Analysis of Job Dynamics, The World Bank, October 2019, tg 20:

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37 <iu2i|iupl|[i 1|штшрЬ[ t hbr^lntiluLiq' Quin https://www.cba.am/am/SitePages/statexternalsector.aspx ini|jiu[lihpfi:

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38 Sb'u COVID-19 Crisis Response in Eastern Partner Countries, OECD October 2020.

39 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_559

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41 https://www.terviseamet.ee/en/covid19

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43 https://www.petekamutner.am/covidNews.aspx?sid=srcroot

44 https://www.primeminister.am/hy/press-release/item/2020/06/18/Cabinet-meeting/

45 https://www.arlis.am/DocumentView.aspx?docid=140966

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48 https://www.primeminister.am/hy/press-release/item/2020/08/13/Cabinet-meeting/

49 https://www.e-gov.am/u_files/file/decrees/kar/2020/09/1549J.pdf

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51 https://www.armstat.am/file/article/sv_07_20a_112.pdf

52 Sb'u Yandex Mobility Index 2020:

53 Sb'u Covid-19 Google Global Mobility Report:

54 https://www.belstat.gov.by/en/ofitsialnaya-statistika/real-sector-of-the-economy/national-accounts/current-data/

55 https://www.belstat.gov.by/en/ofitsialnaya-statistika/real-sector-of-the-economy/prices/

56 https://www.belstat.gov.by/en/ofitsialnaya-statistika/Demographic-and-social-statistics/income-and consumption/money-income/

57 https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Belarus/consumer_confidence_survey/

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iНе можете найти то, что вам нужно? Попробуйте сервис подбора литературы.

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ТАТЕВИК МКРТЧЯН

Ассистент кафедры экономической теории АГЭУ, кандидат экономических наук

На пути к преодолению «Большого локдауна»: активизация или новый спад?» - Статья посвящена сравнительному анализу влияния нового коронавируса СОУЮ-19 на экономику Армении, Беларуси, Украины, Грузии и Эстонии, особенно на рынок труда. В целях предотвращения распространения пандемии во многих странах мира был введен обязательный карантин и ограничения на отдельные виды экономической деятельности, в результате чего кризис здравоохранения сопровождался замедлением экономического роста, значительным сокращением в различных секторах экономики, ростом безработицы. Чтобы смягчить эти эффекты, правительства приняли ряд мер для оказания финансовой поддержки работников, находящихся в карантине или в отпуске по болезни, лиц, потерявших работу или доходы, предприятий для сохранения эффективных рабочих мест и пострадавших секторов. Они в какой-то мере сдержали спад, даже обеспечили определенную активизацию, но очевидно, что для возвращения к допандемическому уровню от экономики ряда правительств потребуется более 2 лет, в случае, если вторая волна пандемии будет более "благосклонной".

Ключевые слова: "Большой локдаун", пандемия СОУЮ-19, кризис, снижение занятости, пострадавшие секторы.

Е24, Л1

TATEVIK MKRTCHYAN

Assistant Professor at the Chair of Theory of Economics at ASUE, PhD in Economics

On the Way to "The Great Lockdown": Recovery or a New Downturn?- The paper is devoted to the comparative analysis of effects of the new COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic on the economies, especially on the labor markets of Armenia, Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia and Estonia. In order to prevent the spread of the pandemic, many countries of the world adopted mandatory quarantine and restrictions on certain types of economic activities. As a result, the health crisis was accompanied by a slowdown in economic growth, significant reduction in various sectors of the economy, increase in unemployment. To mitigate these effects, governments implemented a variety of measures to support quarantined or sick leave workers, those who have lost their jobs or incomes, businesses to preserve effective jobs and affected sectors. They have somewhat curbed the decline, even provided some recovery, but obviously it will take economies more than 2 years to return to the pre-pandemic level, in case if the second wave of the pandemic is more "favorable."

Key words: "The Great lockdown", COVID-19 pandemic, crisis, employment decline, affected sectors. J EL: E24, J11

НА ПУТИ ПРЕОДОЛЕНИЯ “БОЛЬШОГО ЛОКДАУНА”: ВОССТАНОВЛЕНИЕ ИЛИ НОВЫЙ СПАД? Текст научной статьи по специальности «Экономика и бизнес»

Аннотация научной статьи по экономике и бизнесу, автор научной работы — Мкртчян Татевик

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