CC BY
39
Section 2. Geography
Tojieva Zulkhumor Nazarovna, National University of Uzbekistan named after Mirzo Ulugbek, Ph. D., c. g. s., associated professor, Department of Geography
E-mail: Z_Tadjieva@mail.ru Dusmanov Farhod Azamkulovich, National University of Uzbekistan named after Mirzo Ulugbek, Scientific researcher, Department of Geography E-mail: nemo_33@list.ru Muhamedova Nazokat Jurayevna, National University of Uzbekistan named after Mirzo Ulugbek, Scientific researcher, Department of Geography E-mail: nazoguli85@mail.ru Haydarova Surayyo Abdusalomovna, Jizzakh State pedagogical institute, Lecturer of the Department of Geography
Mortality and life expectancy rates of population of the republic of Uzbekistan in the years after independence
Abstract: The paper deals mortality rate in the Republic of Uzbekistan is studied. The analysis of the factors of mortality by gender and age groups is carried out. At the end of work the analytical model of mortality is constructed.. The probability of a living out of men and women is defined by mathematical model. Keywords: Maternal mortality, infant mortality rate, life expectancy.
The Republic of Uzbekistan for years has stood out with high rates of population growth. The total population growth is taking place entirely due to natural growth, in conditions of absolute and high rates of birth and low rates of mortality. However, the reduction of indicators defining these processes is poorly reflected in the population density, the solution of social and economic problems, although it enables the growth qualitative characteristics of the population (education, culture, health, etc.). The total population of the country as of 01.01.2014 was 30 492.8 thousand people, and the average annual growth was 0.85 %. For the period of1991 to 2011, the number of population increased by 143.4 %, with an absolute growth of 8 951.5 thousand people. Analysis of the results of the last 4 population censuses and the following periods after them shows that every 10 years the number of people in the country increased by an average of 4 million people. Over the last decade in the country due to low levels of natural growth and negative indicators
emigrational growth, overall rate of population growth dropped sharply. Increase in population numbers of Uzbekistan is solely due to the natural movement of the population, while the mechanical movement contributes to its reduction [1].
One of the achievements in the social and demographic development of the Republic of Uzbekistan in post-independence years is the reduction of mortality rates in all age groups. During this period, the country has improved the healthcare system as well as has paid special focus on mother and child healthcare. In addition, the increase in the proportion of young people and middle-aged people in the age groups of the population has taken place, decrease in birth rates has led to a decrease in mortality rates among children under 1 years of age, maternal mortality and total mortality rates. In a short period of time (1991-2013) overall mortality rates of population decreased by 1.2 points, or changed from 6.2 % (ppm) up to 4.8 %
per thousand people [5].
Table 1. - Natural movement rates of Uzbekistan's population from 1991 to 2013 (Source: [2; 5])
Rates years
1991 1995 2000 2001 2005 2010 2013
Fertility, % 34.5 29.8 21.3 20.4 20.3 22.4 22.5
Mortality, % 6.2 6.4 5.5 5.3 5.4 4.9 4.8
Natural Growth, % 28.3 23.4 15.8 15.1 14.9 17.5 17.7
TFR* 4.199 3.596 2.585 2.469 2.360 2.529 2.350
LE**, years 67.0 70.2 70.8 71.3 71.8 73.1 74.0
DC*** 0.180 0.214 0.257 0.258 0.263 0.218 0.213
Note: * — TFR is the total fertility rate, ** — Life expectancy in years; *** — DC-Depopulation coefficient, which is the ratio of the death rates to the birth rates.
A main characteristic of Uzbekistan is the low coefficient of total mortality rates of its population in comparison to other CIS countries as well as majority of other countries. According to world statistics, for the year 2014 in the Republic total mortality rate was 5.0 %. For comparison, in Russia it was 13 %, in Ukraine — 15 %, in Belarus — 13 %, in Georgia — 11 %, in Kazakhstan — 8 %, in Tajikistan — 7 %, Turkmenistan — 8 %, and in Kyrgyzstan — 7 % [4].
The greatest influence on the growth of mortality rates has such factors like the environmental aspects and composition of population in terms of age and sex groups. A mortality rate of the rural population of Uzbekistan has always been lower compared to mortality rate among the urban population. In terms of age structure, apart from the increase in mortality rates among the elderly, permanent decline in mortality rates has been observed in all age groups. The increase in mortality rates among older people and the elderly can be associated with diseases peculiar to this age.
One of the indicators of the level of socio-economic development is the infant mortality rate, in particular, mortality rate among children under one years of age. Sharp decrease in the birth of children who are the fourth, fifth, sixth child in a family, led to a dramatic reduction of infant mortality to 3.3 times or it declined from 35.5 % per 1,000 live births to 9.8 %, and the maternal mortality rate declined from 33.3 to 20.2 per thousand, or 1.6 times (1991-2013) [6]. But the relatively high number of babies who have died due to various diseases and causes compared to older children — certainly is a negative factor. In particular, the highest mortality rate for children under one year is accounted for respiratory diseases (33.7 %) and pathological conditions of the perinatal stage of labor (48.7 %) [6].
Effect of endogenous factors on mortality associated with pathological conditions of the perinatal period birth compared to exogenous factors is slightly higher. Along with the large number of children who died of respiratory disease (33.7 % of the total mortality from all causes of infant mortality), it has decreased by 3.3 times during the research period. Deaths for reasons of birth defects, accidents and injuries, amounting to 10 % of the infant mortality rate for the period 1989-2012 has decreased 1.6-4.8 times [2].
In contrast to group of older people and other age groups, child mortality still remains high, despite the decline in mortality among children 0-4 years old. For example, during period of 1989 to 2013 child mortality among this age group ranged from 11.1 to 4.10 % per thousand children in this age group, although it has decreased by 63 %. Higher mortality rate is observed among boys rather than girls in the overall mortality of infants and children up to an age of 5, which is the reason for the sexual (gender) alignment in subsequent age groups. The low mortality rate in the country exists in a group of children and adolescents from 5 to 19 years of age, and decline of this indicator over the research period was 1.6-1.7 times which is a positive factor, because the mortality rate in the age group of 5-14 year olds for every thousand person in 1989 was 0.6 %, in 2012 it was 0.64 %, while in the age group of 15-19 year olds it was 0.8 % and 0.50 % respectively. The mortality rate was high mainly in groups of young children and older age groups, but at the same time, it begins to grow again in the age group of 60 year olds and older people.
In terms of gender composition of the population of Uzbekistan male mortality in all age groups is relatively higher, and it could be explained by some of the above mentioned factors. In addition, the fact that women in the country mainly do not work in labor-intensive (hard) works, while some of the them are not involved in the production at all, e.i housewives, makes them less
exposed to such negative phenomena as alcohol, smoking, injuries, and their high biological resistance explain the lower mortality rate among women.
Specific changes in mortality of the population is most clearly expressed in its age-specific, and life expectancy at birth. In particular, during the period of 1989-2012 age mortality rates of the population in all age groups decreased by 1.6 times. For example, if in 1989, for every thousand people death for males was 6.8 %, and for the females was 5.9 %, in 2013, these figures were 5.1 % and 4.4 % respectively. The small difference in mortality rates in terms of gender (sex) composition of the population can also be observed in the age groups of the population. For example, the mortality rate among boys in overall child mortality among children under 5 years of age is 1.3 points which is higher than mortality among girls, despite the fact that during the years of 1989-2012 it declined by 7.5 %. Higher death rates by age groups are seen in groups of children of up to 10 years, but then they decrease for 10-14 year old group, and then they increase again in subsequent age groups. The lowest mortality rates are found in the age groups of 5-9, 10-14 and 15-19 year olds, where the mortality rate is less than 1 %. Mortality rate in the age groups of 50 years and older is 10 % and above, for every thousand people.
In the mortality rate by age most of mortality is among women and men of working age. In particular, the mortality rate is increasing rapidly after the age of 40. If the age group of 25-29 year old mortality rate is 0.8-1.2 %, for the 40-44 year old age group it is 3 %, and among men even more than 4 %. Among the causes of mortality in a large proportion of the working-age deaths occur due to cardiovascular disease, accidents and injuries and cancer, but the sequence of men and women are different. For example, mortality rates among women first of all caused by abnormalities of the cardiovascular system, second cause is cancer related illnesses, at the third place is the parts of the digestive system. Among men, on the contrary, mortality rates caused by accidents and injuries are placed second. Both among women and men of all-cause mortality rates are much lower compared to older age groups.
However, the leading cause of mortality in the age group of 60 years and older is the cardiovascular and other diseases associated with the development of the human body and its suspension from growth, which appear after reaching the working age limit. Decrease on year by year basis age-specific mortality rates ofpopu-lation also leads to increase in the life expectancy at birth. One of the most important aspects of the current demographic situation in Uzbekistan is the achievement in prolonging life expectancy.
The average life expectancy in terms of duration differs from that of life expectancy rates in the neighboring countries, including Kazakhstan (3 years), Kyrgyzstan (3 years) and Turkmenistan (9 years). Also, when compared with the CIS countries Uzbekistan is placed after such countries like Armenia (72 years), Georgia (74) and Azerbaijan (74, 2011).
Life expectancy rates among women living in Uzbekistan are relatively lower compared to women living in such countries like Russia, Ukraine, Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan and neighboring countries. However, among men higher life expectancy rates can be observed. In Uzbekistan life expectancy rates among women traditionally was higher than men for some years. During 1970-1971 women were living on average 9 years longer than men, in 1990-1991, the figure was 6 years and in 2013-2014 it dropped to 7 years. For 2010-2011 year life expectancy at birth among women was longer than men by about 30 years and it was on a constant basis.
Table 2. - Average life expectancy in Uzbekistan during 2010-2011
Age Men Women For how many years women live longer than men
Years Percentage
0 year old 70.6 74.9 4.3 6.1
5 year old 66.8 70.8 4 6.0
10 year old 61.9 65.9 4 6.5
20 year old 52.2 56.2 4 7.7
30 year old 42.7 46.5 3.8 8.9
40 year old 33.5 37.0 3.5 10.4
50 year old 24.8 27.8 3 12.1
60 year old 17.6 19.2 1.6 9.1
70 year old 10.8 12.1 1.3 12.0
80 year old 7.2 7.2 0 -
90 year old 7.6 4.9 -2.7 -35.5
100 year old 5.1 1.4 -3.7 -72.5
Note: The table is based on the author's calculations. Based on data provided by the State Statistics Committee of Uzbekistan.
Among women of 40-50 years, the average age is 3-3.5 years more, but in the older age groups, this age in both men and women do not differ much. But it is only in absolute figures and in relative terms, on the contrary, an increase of this index can be seen among the elderly in several times.
Particularly, in the table of mortality among Uzbekistan's population for the period of 2010-2011 in the age group of boys of 5 years T=6 570 573, while l = 98 387 ifwe calculate, by putting the figures into formula, the average life expectancy of five year old boys
at birth is equal to 66.8 years, and it is established that they can live on average another 61.8 years. It is established that during this period there was no significant change in the average life expectancy for other age groups either.
While in 1989-1990, the average life expectancy at birth for the total population was 69.3 years, in 2010-2011, it increased to 74 years: among women the figure for this period increased from 72.4 years to 74.9 years and for men it grew from 66.1 years to 73 years [7].
Fig.1. Mortality curves for men and
While calculating the probability of survival, or how many out of 100 000 people can live up to a certain age of the mortality table, or the table of life expectancy, prepared on the basis of age-specific mortality rates, using the following formula: Lx + 1 = PxLx
It is established that in Uzbekistan for the period of2010-2011 — 100 000 births in 1 year, that is probability of reaching the 1 year threshold was Lx = 98 901, of whom among women the figure was Lx = 99 044, while for men it was Lx = 98 767. Similarly, from the age group of up to 5 years did not reach that age only 1.5 %, in other words 98.5 % did reach that age. In addition to that, among girls of up 5 years of age did not live up to that age 1.4 %, while from the boys 1.7 %, or 98.6 % and 98.3 % respectively survived to this age.
Starting from 70-80 years old, the probability of survival among population is equal to half. Thus, it was established that on reaching
women in Uzbekistan, 2010-2011
90 years of age, overall probability of survival of the population was Lx=9 659, Lx=11 910 among women and Lx=7 365 among men. The reason for this is primarily due to the reduction of infant (child) mortality in the country, and a sharp reduction in mortality rates in the older age groups. Data illustrated in Fig. 1 show high levels of survival probability among women compared to that of men, and this difference increases as the age increases. In particular, 72 % of women and 61 % of all men have the probability of reaching the age of 70. Similarly, up to 80 years of age survive 28.6 % of men and 41.7 % of women. This illustrates the need for increasing the survival probability among men.
Along with huge conditional probability of mortality in Uzbekistan in the age group of children from 0 years to 4 years, it is decreasing among age groups of up to 13-14 years. But, starting from this age, there can be seen a steady growth. For example, if the probability of mortality among children of 0-1 years is equal
to 1099 per 100 000, among 12-13 years it is 32 and among people at the age of 25-26 years it is 99, in the age group of 60-61 years old it is 1218, and in the age group 70-71 years it is equal to 2 955.
Increase from year to year in life expectancy at birth of Uzbekistan's population, the reduction of infant, child and maternal mortality, bears evidence ofthe qualitative level development of the population, socio-economic development of the country, establishment of a healthy lifestyle and a positive work-level of the healthcare system. Such positive improvements in the processes of mortality and in turn reduction of the birth rates led to the premise of the transition of reproduction in the country from the traditional to the modern type.
Results of demographic changes that are different from those of the former Soviet Union in same the period, shows a new stage in the demographic development of the Republic of Uzbekistan. This demographic situation and demographic development are reflected in the reduction of the growth rates and the average annual rates of population growth, birth and mortality rates. As both sudden decline as well as a sharp increase in population numbers present serious problems. Consequently, a sharp decline in population numbers or preventing excessive growth, the transition to the sound reproduction type of population, these demand the adoption of special demographic policy in Uzbekistan.
References:
1. Tojieva Z. N. The transformation of the age-specific birth rates of the population of Uzbekistan/International conference "Demographic Development Challenges of Globalization." Seventh Valentey reading. - Moscow, November 15-17, 2012. - M., 2012.
2. Key trends and indicators of economic and social development of the Republic of Uzbekistan in post-independence years (1990-2010) and forecast for 2011-2015. Statistical Yearbook. - T.: Uzbekistan, 2011. - P. 91.
3. The socio-economic situation of the Republic of Uzbekistan for 2011. State Committee on Statistics of the Republic Uzbekistan. - T., 2012. - P. 17.
4. Population Reference Bureau. 2012 World Population Data Sheet//[Electronic resource]. - Available from: http://www.demoscope.ru
5. The official website of the State Statistics Committee of Uzbekistan//[Electronic resource]. - Available from: http://www.stat.uz
6. Statistical Review of Uzbekistan. 2011. - T., 2012. - P. 34.
