CC BY
12
DOI: 10.12731/2218-7405-2013-8-72
MONITORING OF EFFICIENCY OF THE FUELS AND LUBRICANTS MARKET OF PERM KRAI
Pazdnikova N.P.
This article deals with the problem of the fuels and lubricants market efficiency monitoring. The author reveals the notion of efficiency monitoring and applies this tool to petrol market of Perm krai. As an object of research the largest company of the region LUKOIL-Permnefteproduct, LLC is chosen. The initial step of monitoring is study and analysis of the market by means of the system of statistical indicators which comprehensively show trends and problems of the market. Then influence of earlier revealed traditional factors on the condition of the petrol market is estimated and the principal reasons for petrol price changes are determined. The application of efficiency monitoring enables to estimate the market conditions more qualitatively.
Keywords: monitoring, efficiency, market, factor, region.
МОНИТОРИНГ ЭФФЕКТИВНОСТИ РЫНКА ГОРЮЧЕ-СМАЗОЧНЫХ
МАТЕРИАЛОВ ПЕРМСКОГО КРАЯ
Паздникова Н.П.
Статья посвящена проблеме мониторинга эффективности рынка горючесмазочных материалов. Автор раскрывает понятие мониторинга эффективности и применяет данный инструмент для рынка бензина Пермского края. В качестве объекта исследования выбрано самое крупное предприятие региона -ООО «ЛУКОЙЛ-Пермнефтепродукт». Первоначальным этапом мониторинга является исследование и анализ рынка с помощью системы статистических
показателей, которые всесторонне показывают тенденции и проблемы рынка. Далее оценивается влияние ранее выявленных традиционных факторов на состояния рынка бензина, и определяются основные причины изменения цен на бензин. Применение мониторинга эффективности позволяет качественнее оценивать состояния рынка.
Ключевые слова: мониторинг, эффективность, рынок, фактор, регион.
The Russian market of fuels and lubricants is at the stage of development and it is characterized by high degree of attractiveness. At the same time in the market there are several external economic risks which can negatively affect its dynamics and attractiveness in the medium-term prospects. First of all, it is necessary to take into account the probability of a new global economic crisis connected with debt problems of Europe.
Of course, there are also other scenarios of negative world economy development there causing high probability of slowdown of its growth and, according to this, the reduction of demand for energy resources which finally leads to the reduction of volumes of oil and gas receipts to the state budget. According to the official forecast of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, the reduction of predicted oil and gas receipts as a percentage of GDP in 2013-2015 in relation to 2012 is caused by the reduction of the price for oil of Urals («Юралс») brand, despite the fact that the average oil price in 2013 is forecasted at the level of 97 dollars per barrel.
Today the most important task of improvement of management quality and efficiency in the market of fuel and lubricants is development of solutions for improvement of competitiveness through the study of indicators of price changes, identifying the causes and impact of factors to the global price changes. Moreover, owing to the objective laws of spatial development of the Russian Federation, the task of carrying out a state policy concerning regions with a various level of development through the implementation of programs becomes actual. Efficiency
monitoring helps to estimate the efficiency level of the implementation of such programs [2].
Efficiency monitoring of fuels and lubricants market is a set of the economic relations connected with actions for systematic study of price dynamics on the market, assessment of influence of factors on this changes and analysis of the reasons for the purpose of expeditious diagnostics of the market condition.
We investigate the monitoring of efficiency of the fuels and lubricants market of Perm krai.
According to Office of the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS), about 70% of the Perm retail market of oil products is held by OOO LUKOIL-Permnefteproduct. The rest 30-35% of the market are held by several companies, among which the largest one is the Arsenal oil company. Top five also includes OOO Evroinvest (Neftekhimprom gas station), DAN (13 gas stations), Phoenix Petroleum (10 gas stations), and Petrol (5 gas stations in Perm krai).
Based on the above data, in order to objectively analyze and estimate the statistics of oil products retail sales dynamics in Perm krai, it is necessary to take OOO LUKOIL-Permnefteproduct as an object of research, as it occupies the largest share of the market. The main sold types of oil products of the company are AI-95, AI-92 (AI refers to RON), and diesel fuel, which we will study.
On the basis of monthly price changes we will carry out the calculations of statistical indicators for the period since January 2007 till December 2012 (Table 1).
Based on the received values of variation indicators, we can conclude that the range of variability of all three brands of petrol is great enough that proves high variability of petrol prices in the market of fuel and lubricants (Table 2).
The results of calculation of variance indicate significant deviations of prices for petrol from mean value. It gives evidence of instability of the market in the given period. Values of the prices variance go in ascending order: AI-92, AI-95, and diesel. From this, it is possible to conclude that the most unstable type is diesel, and the stablest type is AI-92.
Table 1
Statistical indicators used in of the fuels and lubricants market efficiency
monitoring
Symbol The name of statistical indicator
у the average level of interval time series
R range of variability
2 G Variance
G standard deviation
Ko coefficient of oscillation
V coefficient of variation
КЦ continuous growth rate
КБ base growth rate
буц absolute continuous increment
0УБ absolute base increment
бКц continuous increment rate
6Кб base increment rate
Table 2
Received values of statistical indicators, 2007-2012
Indicator АИ-92 АИ-95 Diesel
Eyi 1159,97 1258,44 1119,19
У 21,09 22,88 20,35
R 9,92 10,76 12,75
2 G 4,62 5,33 9,40
G 2,15 2,31 3,07
Ko 47,06% 47,01% 62,64%
V 21,90% 23,28% 46,18%
Standard deviation is rather small, this indicates that the received average values adequately characterize the prices for each of the taken petrol brands.
Coefficient of oscillation shows significant changes of extreme values of the prices for the taken types of petrol round their mean values. Values of oscillation coefficient of the prices for these types of petrol in the given period go in ascending order: AI-95, AI-92, diesel. This indicates vide range of price changes, higher values of oscillation coefficient corresponds to a higher fluctuation range. Values of the coefficient of prices variation for AI-92 and AI-95 are less than 40%, with values of the coefficient of prices variation for AI-92 being less than for AI-95, that shows low price variability for these types of petrol. Values of the coefficient of prices variation for diesel are more than 40%, that shows significant price variability for this type of petrol in the chosen period.
Indicators of continuous growth rate, absolute continuous increment and continuous increment rate show monthly changes of prices for the chosen types of petrol in the given period in relation to the previous period (month) [4].
Indicators of base growth rate, absolute base increment and base increment rate show changes of price levels for the chosen types of petrol for the chosen period in relation to the comparison base (January, 2007).
The next step of the efficiency monitoring is to estimate the factors affecting formation and changes of prices for petrol of the chosen types.
The most important factors of petrol pricing in the world are: oil cost, rate of the national currency, demand (income level), seasonality, taxes and excises, rate of inflation.
Now let's consider each of these factors of petrol pricing in details. The main factors are oil cost and rate of the national currency which experts consider first of all.
Oil cost. Petrol is a product of oil refining, therefore the main factor of petrol price formation is oil cost. In the studied period two key moments in oil cost changes are clearly visible. For example, in August 2008 price boom changed into sheer fall in prices and in May 2009 slump in prices changed into their increase (fig. 1).
There is a very high correlation between prices of petrol and oil. Decrease of oil cost leads to decrease of prices in the petrol market, and vice versa.
It should be taken into account that the price of a liter of petrol depends on the level of modern equipment availability of an enterprise, as the percentage of the petrol made from liter of crude oil on the outdated equipment is 15-25%, while on the new equipment it is about 80% [3].
Fig. 1. Oil prices, 2007-2012
Rate of the national currency. When oil prices fell by more than 70%, petrol prices fell by only 20%. This happened because one more important factor affecting petrol prices is the rate of the national currency. If we compare oil prices change dynamics (fig. 1) with the dynamics of the USD/RUR exchange rate, we will see that when oil prices plummeted, exchange rate of rouble fell as well, which means that inflation grew. As petrol prices are expressed in roubles, the simultaneous fall of oil prices and exchange rate of rouble compensated each other therefore petrol prices fall was not very significant.
Demand (income level). One more important factor affecting petrol prices is purchasing power of people which depends much on per capita income. Thus, in January 2013 disposable income and real wages increased by 0.7% and 3.5% respectively in relation to January of the previous year, and consumer prices increased by 1.7% over the same period [1].
Seasonality. Petrol price also depends on the season. It increases in summer when demand grows and it decreases in winter when demand decreases. This can be seen from the data in the table specially drawn up for Perm krai which will be considered below.
Taxes and excises. Tax payments are expenses which directly affect petrol price as their share is 44% to 60% of the petrol price. The share of tax deduction correlates with the petrol price. All the taxes (VAT, MET, excise taxes, income tax) included in the petrol price are federal, with the greatest share being taken by MET (16.9%).
Inflation. When comparing changes of inflation indicators with fluctuation of the petrol prices, direct correlation is revealed but inflation growth rate is much higher than growth rates of petrol price.
All factors of petrol pricing are interconnected, and when studying dynamics of petrol price it is important to consider all the factors, or there will be contradictions proving bias in the study. However, the possibility of uncontrollable events affecting the results should not be excluded.
Evaluating the previous two steps of efficiency monitoring, it is possible to distinguish two groups of causes of petrol price changes during 2007-2012 in Perm krai (Table 3).
Table 3
Causes of petrol price changes, 2007-2012
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Causes of Increase in Increase in Sharp increase Increase in oil Increase in Increase in
sharp increase wholesale wholesale in wholesale prices; the petrol excise petrol excise
in petrol prices prices for prices for prices of oil situation of duty since duty; debt
petrol (up to petrol (up to companies in preparation of January, problems of
20%) caused 20%) caused summer; excise increase 2011; Europe
by closure of 9 by closure of 9 increase in starting in crude oil
oil refinery oil refinery global oil January, 2011. export duty
plants plants prices; lack of increase in
supply on the February;
market; increase increase in
in the vehicle global oil
feet of the prices
country by
764,000 units.
Causes of Federal Law Global The FAS control Decrease in FAS control
decrease in "On Protection financial crisis; Government prices
petrol prices of new export and FAS because of
Competition" duty was pressure on oil the pressure
was passed; imposed; work companies; by FAS and
crude oil on reducing decrease in Prime
export duty MET wholesale Minister
increase prices for V.Putin on oil
petrol; companies
MET on new oil
fields and duties
on imports of
oil refinery
equipment were
abrogated
Thus, the petrol market efficiency monitoring allows to estimate qualitatively the market condition, using statistical methods of an assessment taking into account the set of necessary factors and to reveal the main causes of increase or decrease of the petrol price.
References
1. Federal Law № 135-FZ of July 26, 2006 On Protection of Competition (as amended on November 29, 2010).
2. Zh.A. Mingaleva, N.P. Pazdnikova Assessment of efficiency of resource provision of goal-oriented program monitoring for social and economic development of the region. Economy of the region, 2009, № 4, pages 211-215 (Russian)
3. http://www.gks.ru/
4. http://www.pravo-finansovoe.ru/content/vliyanie-inflyatsii-na-ekonomiku
Список литературы
1. Федеральный закон № 135-ФЗ от 26.07.2006 "О защите конкуренции" (в редакции от 29.11.2010).
2. Мингалева Ж.А., Паздникова Н.П. Оценка эффективности ресурсного обеспечения мониторинга целевых программ социально-экономического развития региона» // Экономика региона, 2009, № 4. С.211-215.
3. http://www.gks.ru/
4. http://www.pravo-finansovoe.ru/content/vliyanie-inflyatsii-na-ekonomiku DATA ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Pazdnikova Natalia Pavlovna, Assistant Professor of Department of Finance, credit and exchange business, PhD in Economics Science
Perm State Scientific Research University
15, Bukireva street, Perm, Perm Krai, 614900, Russia
e-mail: pazdnikovan@mail.ru
ДАННЫЕ ОБ АВТОРЕ
Паздникова Наталья Павловна, доцент кафедры управление финансов, кредита и биржевого дела, кандидат экономических наук
Пермский государственный научный исследовательский университет ул. Букирева, 15, г. Пермь, Пермский край, 614900, Россия e-mail: pazdnikovan@mail.ru
