Научная статья на тему 'Monitoring Ethno-Political Situation: Kazakhstan'

Monitoring Ethno-Political Situation: Kazakhstan Текст научной статьи по специальности «СМИ (медиа) и массовые коммуникации»

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Текст научной работы на тему «Monitoring Ethno-Political Situation: Kazakhstan»

In the former Islamic researchers and teachers of secular and Islamic institutions of higher learning in Dagestan are trained. Young Muslims who have received religious education outside the boundaries of the Russian Federation (in Egypt, Indonesia, United Arab Emirates, and elsewhere) may continue to study or work at these secular or religious institutions.

The latter is part of the regional, program "Islam in Dagestan." In recent years a lot of mass literature about Islam has been distributed all over Dagestan. It is published by Islamic funds and often contains materials of extremist, confrontational character.. Besides, this literature is, as a rule, of a low quality and full of errors. As an alternative we suggest to organize a journal entitled "Islam in Dagestan," which will publish high-quality articles by representatives of scientific Islamic studies. Apart from that, we would like to write, print and distribute books in a series "Muslim Enlighteners of Dagestan: History and Our Time."

All these efforts and also a search for intra-confessional dialogue in Dagestan largely depend on solution of material, socio-economic and political problems, improvement of the system of religious education, and development of civil initiatives and civil upbringing and education.

"Realnost etnosa: obrazovaniye i etnosotsializatsiya molodezhi v sovremennoi Rossii."St. Petersburg, 2012, pp. 269-273.

I. Savin,

Political analyst

MONITORING ETHNO-POLITICAL SITUATION: KAZAKHSTAN

Demography and migration. Natural movement of the population (births, deaths, longevity).

According to the data of the Statistics Agency, the number of the country's population by November 1, 2011, reached 16 million 657,740., having increased by 215,781 in ten months.

The lion's share of the population surplus is due to its natural growth (211,520). Just as in previous years, the growth rates in regions depend on the ethnic composition of the population. Reduction of the population is especially noticeable in regions where the share of the non-Kazakh population is quite considerable. The growth of the rural population has noticeably surpassed the surplus of the urban population.

The balance of outside migration comprised 4,261 people, which is much smaller than the past indices (15,465) and (7,502), but bigger than the figure of the crisis year of 2008 (1,117).

According to a research work carried out by the Kazakh Institute of Strategic Studies, a purposeful policy is being pursued in Kazakhstan aimed at ousting the Russian-speaking population from the republic.

The quality of higher education in Kazakhstan is one of the reasons why even some people of Kazakh nationality prefer to leave the country. Another reason is an influx of labor migrants to the country. Kazakhstan becomes more attractive to migrants from Central Asia, which lays an imprint on the mentality of the local population.

Of course, one of the main reasons for leaving Kazakhstan is the worsening living conditions, especially in rural areas.

Power, the state, politics. On the whole, the doctrine and regime of power remained unchanged.

The beginning of 2011 was marked by smooth transfer of the idea to hold a republican referendum on prolongation of powers of Kazakhstan's President Nursultan Nazarbayev until 2020. At the end of the year the authorities dissolved parliament of the 4th convocation and

held pre-term parliamentary elections in January 2012. This was due, among other things, to the growing financial-economic crisis.

Relations between power and the opposition are exacerbating. Part of the opposition forces, including the Communist party and the unregistered People's party "Alga," have organized the "Halyk maidany" ("Popular Front") movement. In answer, the authorities banned the activity of the Communist party of Kazakhstan for six months.

Another possible rival of the ruling "Nur Otan" party at parliamentary elections was excluded from election debates.

In short, the authorities succeeded in avoiding the situation of direct confrontation in the sphere of legitimate political rivalry. But, judging by the events in Zhanaozen in December 2011, they failed to win people's trust and stop their protest movement.

Human rights and collective rights. Inasmuch as 2010 was the year of Kazakhstan's presidency at OSCE, international human rights organizations believed that the situation with human rights would improve in Kazakhstan. Improvements did take place in the republic, but only slightly. Their results disappointed human rights activists.

The unwillingness or inability of the authorities to resolve labor conflicts in some places have led to mass violations not only of labor and social rights, but also the right to freedom of speech and assembly.

Public order and control. In 2011 Kazakhstan came across such phenomena as open terrorism and cases of mass disobedience. From April to December 2011, there were eleven cases of terrorist acts and armed clashes with extremists with big casualties. Some of them had a religious tint connected with the ideas of "pure Islam."

In the town of Zhaozen in the western part of the country there were mass actions of protest with quite a few casualties (according to

official information, their number was 16, but according to rumors there were up to 70 people killed).

Production and prices. According to Statistics Agency, Kazakhstan retained economic development rates in 2011 at the level of the preceding year. The growth of the GDP in January - September 2011 amounted to 107.2 percent.

Industry - 103.5 percent, agriculture - 126.7 percent, construction - 114.5 percent, transport - 106.7 percent, communications - 118 percent. Inflation in December 2011 comprised 0.3 percent to November 2010, in December 2011 - 7.4 percent to December 2010. The index of consumer prices in January - November 2010 was 108.4 percent to January - December 2010.

Level of and difference in incomes. The average per capita nominal income in January - November 2011 was 48,500 tenge (U.S. $329), with an increase by 116 percent compared to the previous year. The growth of real money income was estimated at 107.1 percent as against January - November 2010.

The figure for the cost of living was 15,461 tenge (U.S. $105). The average nominal monthly wage amounted to 87,223 tenge in January - November 2011 (U.S.$593), and grew as compared to the same period of the preceding year by 115.1 percent.

Employment and unemployment. The number of the unemployed in November 2011 was 477,600 and it grew compared to November 2010 by 100.7 percent. The number of the registered unemployed reached 89,000, and increased by 150 percent over the year. The level of unemployment was estimated at 5.4 percent in November 2011. The share of the unemployed in the general number of the able-bodied population is 14 percent.

Culture, education, information. The sphere of the domination of European culture has diminished due to the departure of a

considerable part of the non-Kazakh population and greater attention of the authorities to the purely Kazakh cultural sphere. The use of the Kazakh language has become broader in all spheres - from production to rest and recreation.

Religious life. Scandals of various kinds continued throughout the year caused by a ban on wearing headscarf at educational institutions. They took place in different regions of the country and were expressed by lone public protests in the press, in the streets, or by joint actions, as was the case in Ekibastuz and Chimkent.

The President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev expressed his position on the problem in a speech in the town of Turkestan on March 11 as follows: "I am against wearing headscarf, especially when it is on young girl-students. We have never had such tradition in our history." And he mentioned Kazakhstan's own path in this matter.

It should be remembered that Kazakhstan headed the Organization of Islamic Cooperation in 2011 and it had to interact with countries where other views on national specificities of adherents of Islam are widespread. This is why there is no mention of wearing headscarf in the text of the law "On religious activity and religious associations" signed by the President in September 2011.

This law has been harshly criticized by human rights activists in Kazakhstan and certain western countries, as well as by various religious organizations. The object of their criticism was the premise about stricter rules of registration of religious organizations and missionaries. In any way, one can see certain changes in the role of religion in society and in attitude to this role.

The language situation. The most vivid examples showing the dynamics of the language situation in Kazakhstan is a conflict, which took a legal form, on the occasion of closing down two Russian schools

in Temirtau, and also several statements of the authorities about a change of the role of the Russian language in Kazakhstan.

The question of expanding the role and use of the Kazakh language in the republic has been discussed in society lately. However, the number of people speaking Kazakh has not increased noticeably, and the number of those speaking Russian has not diminished either.

The country's leadership is taking care of bringing the language situation in line with the state program of the development and functioning of languages in the period from 2011 to 2017. It is planned that after the implementation of the program the share of the adult population fluently speaking and being able to read and write in the national language should comprise 20 percent by 2014, by 2017 - 80 percent, and by 2020 - 95 percent. The level concerning the Russian language should be the same, and the share of Kazakhs speaking and able to read and write in English should reach 20 percent.

The role of the mass media in socio-political life. The results of a survey carried out by the "Medianet" Center in 2011 have been published. Eighteen percent of those polled admit that the mass media are objective and tolerant in reporting conflicts connected with religious, ethnic and sexual minorities. The rest adhere to the view that in publishing materials on the subject the mass media usually take one of the sides of a conflict, and provoke, or hush-up a conflict.

At the same time, the mass media themselves constantly come across the attempts to restrict their activity. The law of the Republic of Kazakhstan "On TV and Radio broadcasting," in the view of a representative of the OSCE, violates the citizens' right to receive and distribute information freely and strengthens state control over electronic mass media.

Contacts and stereotypes, changes in self-consciousness. The sphere of history remains a field of conflict as before. Many events of

the past and their assessment and interpretation cause controversial reaction in society. This is the most typical phenomena of Northern and Eastern Kazakhstan. More and more people speak of the need to bolster up intergroup tolerance, and at the same time advocate the preservation of national independence, traditional cultural and spiritual values and the national language.

Foreign conditions. Kazakhstan's participation in the activity of the Customs Union was an important factor of foreign economic development of the republic in 2011. By the economic results of the period between January and October 2011 the country's foreign trade turnover increased by 39.7 percent and comprised U.S. $101.1 billion.

According to the data of the Ministry of economic development and trade, the export of commodities increased by 48.2 percent (U.S.$71.7 billion) as against the same period in 2010. Import grew by 22.4 percent (U.S. $29.4 billion). The positive balance of foreign trade amounted to U.S. $42.3 billion, that is, 1.7 times more than in the same period of 2010.

Conclusions. Kazakhstan has come across new challenges in 2011 against the backdrop of the intra-elite struggle for power and the strengthening of power of the present authorities. At the same time there were more protests of the popular masses, religious extremism and terrorism were on an increase, and contradictions between the religious and secular principles became deeper.

Despite positive dynamics of economic development and the continuing progress of the social sphere, there are indications that society has already exhausted its inertia of using the already existing methods to regulate the political and ideological sphere and is now ready for more radical transformations. It should also be noted that the traditions of the authoritarian rule and conservative management diminish the effectiveness of positive decisions taken by the authorities.

We should note that the sphere of interethnic relations was more or less calm and quiet, thus confirming the viability of the "Kazakh model of interethnic and inter-religious accord." Nevertheless, it is time to think of reforming and developing this model.

"Etnopoliticheskaya situatsiya v Rossii i sopredelnykh gosuderstvakh," Moscow, 2012, pp. 578-586.

Yevgeni Borodin,

Ph. D. (Econ.), Diplomatic Academy,

Foreign Ministry of Russia

RELATIONS BETWEEN RUSSIA

AND KYRGYZSTAN AT THE PRESENT STAGE

From the beginning of its entry in the Russian Empire (1870 -1880) Kyrgyzstan became its special part. The czarist government artificially divided the territory into Turkestan Governorate General and khanates, thus preventing Uzbeks, Turkmen, Kyrgyz, Kazakhs and Tajiks to become a new ethnic community. However, at the end of the 19th - beginning of the 20th century czarist Russia's policy played an important role in the formation of the initial or primary educational system, which gave an impetus to Kyrgyz joining the values of Russian culture.

In 1884 Russian-aboriginal schools began to be opened, combining Muslim mekhteb and Russian primary school, with the introduction of Russian as the national language (obligatory subject), and allowing local inhabitants to study the foundations of Islam as the principal means to overcome the indigenous people mistrust in these schools and draw as many children as possible in them. By 1917 there were 17 Russian-aboriginal schools and two boarding schools at the Pishpek and Przhevalsk municipal schools.

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