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ВОПРОСЫ МИРОВОЙ ЭКОНОМИКИ
УДК 338.45(517.3) © Ser-Od Burmaa
MONGOLIAN COAL INDUSTRY EXPLORATION AND RECENT SITUATION
In this paper, i try to study coal exploration in domestic and international market and their future trend compired with other producers. Mongolia produced 1.22% and exported 5.7% from the total coal production in the Asian Pacific by the 2011.
By the way Mongolian coal exploration amount increased 30% or reached 32.9 million tonnes. The our domestic demand just rised in that time.
In the 2009, the coal exploration sharp increased by 128.9% and it excessed from the rate of GDP and Mining&Quarring . But it became 0.6% growth share in the GDP. Maybe, it is related on world economic crisis and market pricedown. The industrial total production value rate has fluctuation recent years. Therefore, the international market supply and demand, and world market price influenced on the GDP value, just related on mining production.
Keyword: coal deposit, coal exploration, coal consumption, exploration permissionspecial permission
I. INTRODUCTION
The Asian-Pacific region includes 52 countries[1], is the biggest consumption region. Mongolia is a not major player in this region, it has its importance in the Republic of China.
The main task of my article is determine Mongolian coal export possibility. Therefore, this article divided into 2 sections: Producers and consumers in the domestic or international market. All sections are consists coal deposit, exploration and consumption. The main data is based on BP statistical Review of World Energy full report 2012, International Energy Agency (IEA) 2011 and Mongolian Mineral Resource Authority.
II. THE PRODUCERS AND CONSUMERS TREND IN THE INTERNATIONAL MARKET
The world countries has divided in to five regions: Europe&Euro-Asia, Asia-Pacific, North America, Middle East &Africa and South &Central America in the world energy statistic. From the this outlook, coal deposit is decreasing in the South&Central America, Middle East&Africa and Europe&Euro-Asia, but increased in the Asia-Pacific and North America. The coal deposit and change over are shown the graphic 1.
1991
■ Europe and Euro
Asia
6% 1%
Asia-Pacific
23% 42% North America
28%
Middle East
&Africa
■ South and central
America
graphic 1. Approved coal deposit and distribution, % (1991, 2001, 2011) [2]
From this table, the coal deposit is increasing in the Asia-Pacific and North America. Although, the coal deposit expansion is important, the ratio of deposit and consumption is more important to determine coal supply and demand trend. The ratio of deposit and consumption of these regions are illustrated in the graphic 2.
South and central america
Middle East &Africa North America
Asia- Pacific
Europe&Euro-Asia
242
228
124
126
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 The ratio of resource and production, 2012
graphic 2. The ratio of deposit and consumption,by region (2011) [3]
The Europe&Euro-Asia region is the biggest coal deposit owner, but their ratio of deposit and consumption is highest that compired to the other regions.
The Asia-Pacific is the second biggest coal deposit rigth now. Also their ratio of deposit and consumption is wrote after the Europe&Euro-Asia region.
The growth of the primary energy production by energy deposit, is indicated in the graphic 3.
Bio fuel Coal Natural gas Oil
100% 2 00% 3 00%
■ World total production
4,00% 5,00%
6,00%
7,00%
graphic 3. The primary energy production change-over [4]
From above graphic, we can see that the coal is highest growth rate which is increased by 6.1% in the primary energy deposit. The total production quantity is demonstared in the table 1.
Table. 1
Total production quantity, by region(million.tn)
year region n. 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Absolute average net growth of production, mil.tn
Europe&Euro-Asia 427.2 439.8 440.6 440.8 8 4 449.8 456.9 426.6 437.3 7 ^t- m ro
<N OO 3. 6. 3. 7. 8. 4. 7. 2686
Asia- Pacific 00 <N .0 4 .7 6 ON 81 .6 9 .0 ON 0 2 .4 00 21 31 2 .2 ON 4 2 vo in
North America 609.5 589.5 610.7 620.7 634.7 629.4 637.8 578.7 592.7 d 6 -
Middle East &Africa on <N 8 m 2 2 2 3 ^t- 4 7 7 ^t- <N
South and central America 33.9 39.9 43.0 46.3 51.2 53.6 56.3 56.4 57.2 64.8
The Absolute average net growth of production is highest in the Asia-Pacific. The total coal production of Asia-Pacific is shown in the table 2.
From this table Republic of China is the biggest producers by 73%. Second one is Australia by 8.6%. I calculated production growth rate using data of appendix.2 by (1) formula and indicated in the table 2.
growth rate=(yn-yn-i)*100/yn-i (1)
table. 2
The coal exploration growth rate, % (at 2002 constant prices)
year Counttry 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Australia 2.8 6.8 11.6 14.4 17.8 21.6 25.9 28.1 25.2
Russian Federation 8.4 12.3 18.7 23.7 26.2 30.8 21.1 28.8 34.1
Indonesia 10.7 28.2 47.9 87.7 110.1 132.8 148.2 166.5 214.6
India 4.3 12.4 17.0 22.9 30.7 41.2 52.2 57.0 60.6
Thailand -7.0 -1.8 1.8 -7.0 -10.5 -12.3 -12.3 -10.5 5.3
China 18.7 37.5 52.5 64.7 75.8 82.4 93.5 110.6 129.1
Vietnam 17.4 59.8 98.9 137.0 143.5 150.0 173.9 167.4 170.7
Japan -12.5 -12.5 -25.0 -12.5 0.0 -12.5 -12.5 -37.5 -12.5
Republic of Korea 0.0 -6.7 -13.3 -13.3 -13.3 -20.0 -26.7 -40.0 -40.0
New Zealand 14.3 17.9 17.9 28.6 7.1 7.1 0.0 17.9 10.7
Pakistan -6.3 -6.3 0.0 6.2 0.0 12.5 0.0 -6.3 -12.5
Mongolia 1.8 25.5 36.4 45.5 67.3 81.8 161.8 358.2 481.8
Other Asian countries 8.8 12.8 18.0 23.7 29.0 33.5 24.0 35.4 44.2
Asia- Pacific 14.0 29.4 42.0 53.5 63.2 70.5 80.9 94.6 109.7
The Australian coal production growth is decreased from the 2010 because of force major. The Mongolia became beginner of the coal production growth rate in the 2011, at 2002 constant prices. Second one is Indonesia and third one is Vietnam.
The Republic of China is a beginner of coal consumption. After that the coal consumption is a high in the India and Japan. I calculated production growth rate using data of appendix.2 by (1) formula and demonstrated in the table 3.
table.3
Total consumption growth rate, %(at 2002 constant prices)
2GG3 2GG4 2GG5 2GG6 2GG7 2GG8 2GG9 2G1G 2G11
Australia -3.3 -G.6 4.7 9.6 5.9 6.8 6.7 -14.3 -2.5
Russian Federation 1.G -3.4 -8.5 -6.1 -9.3 -2.5 -1G.8 -12.4 -11.7
Bangladesh G G G 25.G G.G 5G.G 5G.G 125.G 15G.G
Indonesia 34.4 23.3 41.1 67.2 11G.G 67.2 92.2 128.9 144.4
India 3.3 13.5 21.5 28.7 38.5 51.8 67.2 78.4 94.7
Thailand 2.2 13.G 21.7 34.8 53.3 66.3 57.6 66.3 51.1
China 18.4 4G.1 56.G 73.3 83.1 89.5 1G7.7 12G.4 141.9
Vietnam 3.8 54.7 5G.9 79.2 9G.6 88.7 164.2 162.3 183.G
Japan 5.3 13.3 13.8 11.7 17.5 2G.7 2.1 16.G 1G.4
Republic of Korea 4.1 8.1 11.6 11.6 21.6 34.6 39.7 54.6 61.7
New Zealand 42.9 5G.G 64.3 57.1 21.4 5G.G 14.3 G.G G.G
Pakistan 2G.8 58.3 7G.8 75.G 112.5 12G.8 95.8 87.5 75.G
Hong-Kong 22.2 22.2 24.1 29.6 38.9 29.6 4G.7 16.7 42.6
Mongolia -5.5 -5.5 5.5 3.6 2G.G 5.5 16.4 25.5 23.6
other Asian countries 8.9 14.8 21.9 26.G 27.5 3G.8 28.6 36.4 36.5
Asia-Pacific 13.4 29.7 41.7 54.2 63.3 69.4 81.7 92.9 1G9.2
We can see that total coal consumption did not change because of the consumption decreased one side but increased another side.
World energy consumption increased by 2.5% in the 2011, but the fuel growth rate is slowing-down. The fuel and coal consumption occupied 33.1% and 30.3% in the world energy. It has the biggest growth rate of coal since 1969. The consumption of the Asia-Pacific is 39.1% and became world biggest energy consumption. The coal is overriding in the Asia-Pacific, the natural gas is overridding in the Europe&Euro Asia, but the oil consumption is a high in the Asia-Pacific and Europe&Euro Asia.
The major exporters are Australia, Indonesia, India, Mongolia and Vietnam in the Asia-Pacific. The major importers are China, Japan, North Korea, Malasiya, Thailand and Philippines.
The coking coal consumption is high in the Russia(Europe & Eurasian region: statistical Review of World Energy), Japan, ROK(Democratic People's Republic of Korea), German, Polish, Brazil and Ukrain, but the brown coal consumption is a high in the India, America, South Africa, Australia and Kasakstan.
In the coal trade, the brown coal is 6.8 billion tonn, the coking coal is 2.7 billion tonn from the total export by 2010. The brown coal export is more than coking coal or 32%-40% above the coking coal export in the last few years.
The Indonesia became the biggest brown coal exporter. The Australia occupied 21% of brown coal export and 54% of coking coal export.
The market price is declined from 2005. It is respected or indentified world economic crisis. In my view. the world market price is rised again in the 2007 because of a coal is a primary energy deposit and cheap. Therefore, it is not lose its worth.
III. THE PRODUCERS AND CONSUMERS TREND IN THE DOMESTIC MARKET
Our coal geology deposit is estimated 163,2 billion tonn[5] and it is possible to rise. The coal deposit predicted and surveyed is around 20 billion tonn[6].(15 basin and 300 fields) Then we became one of the biggest coal deposit owner or Mongolia included in begining 10 coal deposit owner country. The coal is Mongolian majority energy source and aslo it will be kept out further.
We have divided our land into five region such as Central, "Khangai", "Gobi", "Western" and "Eastern" in the Mongolian regional development program[7]. In the western region has maximum fields which has 23 fields but the coal deposit amount is maximum in the eastern region[8].
In the Mongolian Congress resolution 2007 № 27 proved "About to consists into strategic field of mineral"[13] rule. From total 15 fields, it has 4 coal oriented fields: Tavantolgoi, Nariinsukhait, Baganuur and Shivee-Ovoo.
The 5 coal stock companies registered in the Mongolian Stock agency by 2009. It is increased in the 2011 and reached 8. [14] (Shivee-Ovoo, Baganuur, Tavantolgoi, Baynteeg, Mogoin-gol, Nako tulsh, Shariin gol, Taliin gal) It has been given 208 exploration licenses since 1992. Its pick period was a 2006. Exploration license owner research is illustrated in the graphic 4 and table 4.
graphic 4. The number of exploration licenses dynamic in the coal industry sector [11] 4
4AmHrr M&rrMa^bffl ra3ap, npragBg мэдээ™ээр yh^TOBX T6B. 2012
121
table. 4
The exploration licence, number of exploration lisence owner(2011 ohm 6aMgnaap)
number of exploration license number of exploration lecense owner The share of total
1 116 81.1
2 15 10.5
3 5 3.5
4 4 2.80
8 1 0.70
10 1 0.70
12 1 0.70
Total 208 Total 143 100%
From this table, There are 17 new companies and 6 old companies from the new registered exploration license companies by the last two years. The biggest exploration license owners are Mongolian gold(MAK) LLC, Erdenes-tavantolgoi LLC and MoEnKo LLC. The license exploration transition is demonstrated in the
figure 5.
graphic 5. The exlporation license transition[12]
From this figure, the cancelled and extended fields are decreased and mortgage field is increased so much.
The gold exploration special permission is 1192 or biggest but the coal exploration area is 682.7 thousand hectare or 47.6% share of exploration special permission.
The Mongolian Mineral Resource Authority made many things that arrangement to giving process of mineral special permission and according to
implement rule. From this result the number growth of the special permission, reduced by 100%. in between 2010-2011. But it raised up by 79.6% in between 2011-2012.
In the 2012, the operation lisence is increased 24.1% and the number of companies are increased 22.1% compired with 2008 data. Every year, the operation lisence number is increased by average 13[13]. We have 157 coal mining companies, in which 16 Stock company and 141 Limited Liability Companies. In the Mongolian stock market registered total 54 mining company, from this 5 Stock companies are goverment responsibillity.[14] (Shivee ovoo Stock company, Baganuur Stock company, Tavantolgoi Stock company, Baynteeg Stock company, Mogoin gol Stock company)
The growth rate comparison between GDP, Mining&Quirring and Coal production is indicated in the graphic 1.
180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20
19
17,8
41
32
17,8 23,7
2003 2004
16,3 49
53,7
42,5
45 33,7
41 43
17
23,8 30,9
-1
128,9
01,6
91,9
30 38,9
40 13
28,7
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
GDP growth rate
Coal exploration growth rate
I Mining &quirring growth rate
graphic 1. The Coal exploration growth rate dynamic [15]
The coal production rate in the Mining&Quirring is declined and reached 4.6% in between 2002-2006. But it rised again and reached 34.6% from the 2007 until 2011.(graphic 2) This big growth is related on world coal deamand expansion.
200 150 100 50 0
12,4 12,2
47,3
60,5
49,5
59,5
8,3 60
5,6
7,5
66,3
53,1
6,4
69,9 62,6
7,6
63.4
66.5
10,6 56,4
53,6
22,4 62,7
52,2
29,9 34,6
62,1
59,3
60,7
57,1
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Coal exploration share in the Mining&Quirring Mining&Quirring share in the Industrial total production Idustrial total production share in the GDP
graphic 2. The Coal exploration value share in the Mining&Quirring,%(2011)
[16]
The coal research department of the Mineral Deposit Authority classified to the coal exploration company by their operation goal that assumed energetic, territority and export oriented companies.
Total 44 company
export oriented company
energetic oriented company
local area oriented company
graphic 3. The share of the companies
Although, Local area oriented companies are 57% share of total, their exploration is less than export orinted companies. Another word their performance is very low.
table. 6
Mongolian exploration and consumption growth rate, % (at 2002 constant prices)
year growth rate 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
exploration growth rate 1.8 25.5 36.4 45.5 67.3 81.8 161.8 358.2 481.8
consumption growth rate -5.5 -5.5 5.5 3.6 20.0 5.5 16.4 25.5 23.6
From above table we can see that the exploration rate increased 20(at 2002 constant prices) times from the consumption growth rate. According to predict absolute net growth rate trend level, we will use (2) formula. It can demonstrated in the table 7.
y2=yi+& y3=yi+2 y4=yi+3& yn=yi+ 1)à (2)
table. 7
The coal exploration trend of Asia-Pacific (million.tn) A
^^^^ year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
countr^^^
Australia 236.0 241.1 246.3 251.5 256.6 261.8 267.0 272.1 277.3
Russian 161.7 166.2 170.6 175.1 179.5 184.0 188.4 192.9 197.3
federation
Indonesia 214.9 230.1 245.2 260.4 275.5 290.7 305.8 321.0 336.1
India 231.7 241.0 250.4 259.7 269.0 278.3 287.7 297.0 306.3
Thailand 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.3
Republic 2078.5 2200.9 2323.4 2445.9 2568.3 2690.8 2813.3 2935.7 3058.2
of China
Vietnam 26.6 28.4 30.1 31.9 33.6 35.4 37.1 38.9 40.6
Japan 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.656 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Republic 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3
of Korea
New 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4
Zealand
Pakistan 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2
Mongolia 34.9 37.9 40.8 43.8 46.7 49.7 52.6 55.6 58.5
Other -154.1 -159.2 -164.2 -169.3 -174.4 -179.467 -184.5 -189.6 -194.7
Asian
countries
Asia- 2842.4 2998.5 3154.7 3310.8 3466.9 3623.0 3779.2 3935.3 4091.4
Pacific
If coal exploration growth rate is constant, it will be 4.91 billion tonn in the 2020.
The coal consumption trend of Asia- Pacific (million.tn)
table.S
—year country^^^ 2Q12 2Q13 2Q14 2Q15 2Q16 2Q17 2Q1S 2Q19 2Q2Q
Australia 49.7 49.5 49.4 49.2 49.1 4S.9 4S.S 4S.6 4S.5
Russian federation S9.6 SS.2 S6.9 S5.5 S4.2 S2.S S1.5 SQ.1 7S.S
Bangladesh 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.27 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6
Indonesia 46.9 49.S 52.7 55.6 5S.4 61.3 64.2 67.1 7Q
India 311.6 327.56 343.5 359.51 375.5 391.5 4Q7.4 423.4 439.4
Thailand 14.4 14.944 15.5 16.Q 16.5 17.Q 17.6 1S.1 1S.6
Republic of China 1959.3 2Q79.2 2199.1 2319 243S.S 2559 2679 2799 291S.4
Vietnam 16.1 17.2 1S.2 19.3 2Q.4 21.5 22.5 23.6 24.7
Japan 11S.9 12Q.17 121.4 122.63 123.9 125.1 126.3 127.6 12S.S
Republic of Korea S2.S S6.1 S9.5 92.S67 96.2 99.6 1Q3.Q 1Q6.3 1Q9.7
New Zealand 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
Pakistan 4.4 4.6 4.S 5 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.S 6
Hong-Kong S.Q S.2 S.5 S.7 9.Q 9.2 9.5 9.7 1Q
Mongolia 6.9 7.1 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.7 7.S S.Q S.1
other Asian countries 75.S 7S.Q SQ.2 S2.4 S4.5 S6.7 SS.9 91.1 93.3
Asia-Pacific 27Q1.3 2S49.4 2997.4 3145.5 3293.6 3441.7 359Q 373S 3SS5.9
The first one is Republic of China. After that India, Indonesia, etc., If coal consumption growth rate is constant, it will be 3.885 million tonn in the 2020. The Glogex LLC predicted coal exploration and its revenue.(table.5 )
table. 5
Mongolian coal exploration trend
coal exlporation, growth rate low, million. Tonn
2013 37.9
2014 40.8
2015 43.8
coal exlporation, growth rate high, million. tonn 46 56 63
source: r^o^eKc LLC
CONCLUSION
The coal exploration is rised in the Indonesia, India, Thailand, Republic of China, Japan and Mongolia and the coal consumption is rised all Asia-Pacific region despite of Thailand and Japan in between 2010-2011.
The coal demand will rise future in the world because of every countries are refused nuclear energy. The China is a biggest explorer and also consumer. Mongolian advantage is a location, which is very close to the china. Also Mongolian coking coal deposit .
My prediction is the low than Glogex LLC (coal exlporation, growth rate low, million. tonn). For this moment, Mongolia can export 30 million tonn coal, if there is no any force major and growth rate is constant.
The World Energy forum made work plan 2012-2014, in which emphasized on activity to move into less evolve hydrocarbon which be less harm in the ecology and environment or low-carbon coal consumption. Therefore, consumers trend will change and it is necessity to improve coal producing technology and need to produce value added production.
APPENDIX
1. The total coal production of Asia-Pacific (million.tn)
year Countr^\ 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2011 share of total
Australia 184.3 189.4 196.8 205.7 210.8 217.1 224.1 232.1 236 230.8 8.6
Russian federation 117.3 127.1 131.7 139.2 145.1 148 153.4 142.1 151.1 157.3
Indonesia 63.5 70.3 81.4 93.9 119.2 133.4 147.8 157.6 169.2 199.8 7.4
India 138.5 144.4 155.7 162.1 170.2 181 195.6 210.8 217.5 222.4 8.3
Thailand 5.7 5.3 5.6 5.8 5.3 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.1 6.0 0.2
Republic of China 853.8 1013.4 1174.1 1302.2 1406.4 1501.1 1557 1652.1 1797.7 1956 73.0
Vietnam 9.2 10.8 14.7 18.3 21.8 22.4 23 25.2 24.6 24.9 0.927
Japan 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.026
Republic of Korea 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.034
New Zealand 2.8 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.0 3.0 2.8 3.3 3.1 0.115
Pakistan 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4 0.1
Mongolia 5.5 5.6 6.9 7.5 8 9.2 10 14.4 25.2 32 1.2
Other Asian countries Asia-Pacific 14 1281.2 14.7 1460.8 15.2 1657.3 17.3 1819.6 17.3 1966.3 14.7 2090.7 15.5 2185 14 2317.4 11.2 2492.7 8.3 2686.3 0.3 100%
source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy full report 2012
2. Total consumption of Asia-Pacific, million.tn
year country 2QQ2 2QQ3 2QQ4 2QQ5 2QQ6 2QQ7 2QQS 2QQ9 2Q1Q 2Q11 2Q11 share of total
Australia 51.1 49.4 5Q.S 53.5 56 54.1 54.6 54.5 43.S 49.S 1.95
Russian federation 1Q3 1Q4 99.5 94.2 96.7 93.4 1QQ.4 91.9 9Q.2 9Q.9
Banglades h Q.4 Q.4 Q.4 Q.4 Q.5 Q.4 Q.6 Q.6 Q.9 1 Q.Q39
Indonesia 1S 24.2 22.2 25.4 3Q.1 37.S 3Q.1 34.6 41.2 44 1.723
India 151.S 156.S 172.3 1S4.4 195.4 21Q.3 23Q.4 253.S 27Q.S 295.6 11.5S
Thailand 9.2 9.4 1Q.4 11.2 12.4 14.1 15.3 14.5 15.3 13.9 Q.544
Republic of China 76Q.4 9QQ.2 1Q65.6 11S6.2 1317.7 1392.5 1441.1 1579.5 1676.2 1S39.4 72.Q4
Vietnam 5.3 5.5 S.2 S 9.5 1Q.1 1Q 14 13.9 15 Q.5S7
Japan 1Q6.6 112.2 12Q.S 121.3 119.1 125.3 12S.7 1QS.S 123.7 117.7 4.61
Republic of Korea 49.1 51.1 53.1 54.S 54.S 59.7 66.1 6S.6 75.9 79.4 3.11
New Zealand 1.4 2 2.1 2.3 2.2 1.7 2.1 1.6 1.4 1.4 Q.Q55
Pakistan 2.4 2.9 3.S 4.1 4.2 5.1 5.3 4.7 4.5 4.2 Q.164
HongKong 5.4 6.6 6.6 6.7 7 7.5 7 7.6 6.3 7.7 Q.3Q2
Mongolia 5.5 5.2 5.2 5.S 5.7 6.6 5.S 6.4 6.9 6.S Q.266
other Asian countries Asia- Pacific 53.9 122Q.5 5S.7 13S4.6 61.9 15S3.4 65.7 1729.5 67.9 1SS2.5 6S.7 1993.2 7Q.5 2Q67.6 69.3 2217.S 73.5 2354.4 73.6 2553.2 2.SS3 1QQ
source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy full report 2012
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[15], [16] Mongolian Statistical Yearbook.2005-2011.
Serod Burmaa, Mongolian University of Science and Technology, Computer Science and Management School, Economics and Management Department
