CC BY
0УДК 65.016
MODERN TRENDS OF KAZAKHSTAN MANAGEMENT IN THE CONDITIONS OF
UNSTABLE ECONOMY
Z.M. MAGRUPOVA
A.Saginov Karaganda Technical University, Kazakhstan, 100000, Almaty, st. Karaganda, ave.
Nursultan Nazarbayev 56
S.N. KOLTSOV
Senior Manager of PJSC Severstal, Specialized Systems Workshop, Cherepovets, 30 Mira str.,
Russia
Annotation. The authors of the study analyzed the main directions of development of Kazakhstani management. Threats for business entities are considered and the main risks for business in Kazakhstan are identified. Using the results of Euromonitor International's strategic market research reports, the top three risks for businesses in 2022 are identified globally. In plus, they are based on the data of the annual survey of the leaders of the largest companies, conducted by PwC Kazakhstan CEO Survey, the main threats to business in Kazakhstan were noted. Based on the identified trends in the business environment, it is concluded that it is necessary to use management tools more widely, including planning, risk management and innovation. The problems and difficulties in planning available at this stage of economic development are investigated. The risk management system is considered as risk management, which is aimed at reducing the likelihood of an adverse outcome and minimizing possible financial losses of the enterprise.
Key words: threats, management, business entities, planning, risk management, trends, transformations, innovations.
The ability to identify, use and effectively implement new approaches in management, of course, gives an advantage to any company. One reason is that the control system cannot simply be taken and copied. It is an invisible element that ensures long-term business success. Large organizations have long understood the importance of innovation and transformation. Here the question is in the very approach to their implementation. The transformations of the company that have taken place in recent years are taking place in accordance with the latest global management trends, including through cross-functional interaction, the introduction of project management principles (project-based organization, or PBO), innovation management and risk management, and others. In the current instability, there will no longer be clear guidelines for the development of one specific management tool.
The success of Google or Apple is inextricably linked to the fact that these companies were the first to master radically new approaches to management and organization of work. Agile, project approach, customer orientation are those innovations that distinguish the company from competitors [9, 10, 12, 13]. In the field of management, innovation has always been and remains the main advantage. Therefore, companies are experimenting, and the tendency to move away from functional verticals to separate project teams is currently the most advantageous. Since there are several product teams, one way or another, some of the teams will be successful, which will help the organization grow. And some teams with ineffective results will be able to share errors in retrospect, the analysis of which will identify problems and determine ways to eliminate them. This is the relevance of the study conducted by the authors. The theoretical basis of scientific research was the theoretical concepts and methodological developments of domestic and foreign scientists on management issues, and in addition, general scientific methods were used, including a systematic approach, network theory, the method of expert assessments, classification of species, a
comparison method, methods of quantitative analysis and some other. Periodical, statistical, analytical and translated literature in the field of research was used as information resources.
In an unstable economy, a sufficiently large number of threats to business entities arise. Every day, entrepreneurs experience problems with logistics and marketing, cash transactions and currency convertibility. In February of this year, Euromonitor International, a global leader in strategic market research, released a report that identified the top three risks for business in 2022. This is the spread of the Omicron strain, supply problems; inflation. [2]
Lockdown, as one of the main risks, had a very serious impact on the economy in general and on the state of SMEs in particular. It is clear that the sectors associated with tourism, transport, hospitality, and in general the service sectors that directly work with the population suffered the most. The restrictions caused by the coronavirus infection, according to the researchers, will further constrain the normalization of the labor market and supply chains, as well as lead to increased inflationary risks. When we talk about the risk caused by problems with logistics, we are talking about lack of transport capacity, rising energy prices and a shortage of truck drivers. These are the factors that will lead to an increase in the cost of transportation in the largest economies of the world. And, finally, the third factor is the growth of inflation. Global inflation is predicted to rise from 4.3% in 2021 to 4.6% in 2022 [2]. The geopolitical situation in the world has further aggravated all the listed risks, so today this assessment may seem conservative. As the problem between supply and demand for labor shortages will persist throughout the year, inflationary pressures in the world's major economies will remain high. The identified global problems are also characteristic of Kazakhstani business.
In April 2022, the PwC Kazakhstan CEO Survey conducted the 25th annual survey of the leaders of the largest companies, which highlighted the main threats to business in Kazakhstan (Figure 1) [2].
Geopolitical conflicts In the world 30.4%
Figure 1. Top business threats in Kazakhstan As we have already noted, in the context of dynamic changes in the economy, business experiences daily problems, including problems with the supply and sale of goods, financial transactions. Therefore, the task of the management of organizations is to effectively plan financial flows and manage supply chains in the face of constant market changes. The most relevant skills for business today are making strategic and operational decisions under conditions of uncertainty, the ability to consider scenarios and respond flexibly to changing circumstances. Planning processes are fragile and unstable even in conditions of relative stability, and today the challenges in this area can be highly important for business. However, despite the major changes in supply chains, rising inflation and fear of secondary sanctions, business is growing in Kazakhstan, meaning entrepreneurs are discovering new opportunities. In the first six months of 2022, the number of companies registered in the country increased by 3.4% and amounted to 493,683 [3]. This is also
evidenced by the results of monitoring enterprises for the fourth quarter of 2021, conducted by the Monetary Policy Department of the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Based on the data of the press service of the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan, in the fourth quarter of 2021, 3334 enterprises took part in the survey, of which 1578 were large and medium-sized [1]. According to the monitoring results, the process of recovery of economic activity in the real sector continues. Demand for finished products increased with a slight slowdown in the growth rate of prices for finished products, raw materials and materials, as well as an acceleration in the turnover of assets and working capital. The utilization of the enterprises' production capacities remained virtually unchanged, the weighted average utilization level amounted to 54.2% (in the III quarter -54.0%). It's important to note that business enterprises consider that the main obstacle is the state of the economy of Kazakhstan. This was stated by 35.5% of the heads of the surveyed enterprises. Other obstacles are: competition (29.0%); the level of taxes (22.4%); demand for products (21.9%); shortage of qualified personnel (19.0%). Access to finance is ranked 9th (10.9%) in terms of importance (Figure 2).
40
Kazakhstani economic Competition Taxes Demand Access to finances
Figure 2. The main obstacles in doing business of the enterprise
The dynamics of the composite leading indicator (CI), which is an aggregated assessment of surveys of enterprises in the real sector, demonstrates the continued recovery of economic activity in the real sector, the CI increased by 100.4. In the first quarter of 2022, economic activity is expected to continue to grow (COI was expected to be 100.2) [1]. To ensure these trends in the business environment, it is necessary to use management tools more widely, including planning, risk management and innovation. However, there are certain problems and difficulties in planning.
The first difficulty in planning is that Kazakhstani companies are looking for a technological solution and approach that will allow them to develop a single algorithm and a common language both inside and outside the organization. This helps the company and suppliers to synchronize their work and think in the same direction. Thus, companies often suffer from a lack of systematization of the planning process and are not always on the same wavelength with suppliers and partners in fulfilling their obligations to each other and to the end client.
The second difficulty in planning is that companies often do not know what information to rely on when making decisions, since the data is not reliable enough. A large flow of data, especially for large businesses, leads to serious problems in processing and using information for the decisionmaking process, and department heads often do not know what information to collect. Decisions in an effective business require a look at the entire supply chain, information processing from different functions. Only such a systematic approach will make it possible to make balanced decisions leading to improved financial performance.The third difficulty is that due to time-consuming, manual processes and the lack of necessary data in the required quality, management does not have
time for risk assessment and scenario planning. The readiness of the company for a situation when something does not go according to plan, advance preparation for the fact that risks can materialize, have two important effects: this is an increase in the speed of reaction to a crisis situation and a decrease in the costs necessary to exit from it. One of the tasks of enterprise development risk management is the development of principles and methods for coordinating activities and involving personnel in decision-making on risk management and their implementation, including determining competence for specific positions and communications between them. Speaking about risk management, they often mean only a limited area of management, portfolio investment management, risk assessment of investment projects, etc., or specific insurance tasks. Meanwhile, decision-making in the process of any activity requires taking into account all aspects of future development, combining approaches to risk management in all specialized areas of management. Risk identification is implemented at the highest level of enterprise management and is an independent stage of the risk management cycle, which determines the goals and objectives activity in general. It should be noted that the role and importance of risk in an unstable economy is growing and leads to the need for deep and comprehensive research in this area. Moreover, experts in the field of risk theory suggest that in the near future, modern society expects an even more significant transformation. In their opinion, a logical and historically natural continuation of the "society of risk" will be a society that will build a strategy for its economic development not only taking risk into account, but on the basis of risk management [4,5,11]
Figure 3. Risk management technology [6,7,8]
Monitoring and control over the implementation of the plan, rescheduling at different stages, if something does not go as planned, are initially important components of the planning process. external factors often change and companies have to take into account new data and build new scenarios, and the ability to do this in dynamics helps the business to work more efficiently in crisis situations.
The fourth difficulty is related to the human factor: often employees do not fully understand their role within the process, how their actions affect the final result - a financial plan or a plan for
ОФ "Международный научно-исследовательский центр "Endless Light in Science"
sales and operations. Today it is difficult to find employees who can not only have expert skills in the right area, but also be interested and ready for change. Now critical thinking, emotional stability, maturity in terms of accepting mistakes are very important.
Another important aspect of risk management is measuring the business impact of a properly structured planning process. This is due to the fact that proper planning allows you to see the overall perspective at the strategic and operational levels. If the company has a single plan, it becomes possible to synchronize the actions of different departments. The planning process includes an important element - the decision element. The effectiveness of planning is influenced by a set of information, its detailing, visualization of data for prompt decision-making. Planning sets the rhythm of the company, synchronizes the actions necessary for its activities.
Along with a strategic vision, effective planning allows you to increase business profitability, optimize costs, and quickly compare opportunities with market demands. With a properly built process, companies can significantly reduce the cost of prompt response, the volume of write-offs, and optimize the time spent on developing and mixing plans by several times. That is, planning makes the business more adaptive. A business, especially a dynamic one, can quickly collect new data, build on it, and quickly change the plan in accordance with the demands of the situation. Sometimes force majeure situations lead to bankruptcy or closure of companies (as was the case during the coronavirus pandemic, when event agencies, travel agencies, gyms, cinemas, concert venues, etc. were completely closed). But even when a business is facing imminent loss or closure, planning helps to more effectively implement exit from the market, softening the blow falling on employees and suppliers. Another trend that has manifested itself in Kazakhstani management is situational marketing. One of his methods is newsjacking - the technology of using news to promote a product or brand [14]. The digital world in the context of information security has changed dramatically and will never be the same again. This situation forces information security specialists to change their approach from universal solutions to situational ones. A wide range of world-leading technological solutions is presented on the Kazakhstan market, for example, integrated planning platforms such as Anaplan and o9, as well as solutions already known to everyone by SAP IBP, Oracle, etc. [15]. And business is increasingly using the possibilities of digital technologies to build and improve the efficiency of planning.
In conclusion, a scenario planning culture creates a habit for the team to think about multiple scenarios, create alternative supply chains, products, and therefore think outside the box. To implement scenario planning, it is advisable to use digital technology.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
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