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"ONS: obshchestvenniye nauki i sovremennost," Moscow, 2014, N 3, pp. 109-118.
A. Dankov,
Assistant professor, Tomsk State University (Tomsk) MODERN CENTRAL ASIA: SOCIAL TRENDS AND POLITICS
Central Asia is living through a period of great changes this century, which will be truly unique by their scope. Even the transformations, which took place in the region last century, cannot be compared with what is in store for it. The vast dimensions and complex
character of the current processes make it possible to call the impending changes "Great Transformation." This will be an entangled complex of social, economic and political changes in Central Asia, which will include the following elements:
1. Completion of the demographic explosion. In the first half of this century the growth of the population in Central Asia will continue. There are several factors which will contribute to this: a considerable share of young people, comparatively low level of urbanization, and large-family traditions among the Muslim population. However, its growth rates will diminish, and the number of the population of the regional countries will gradually stabilize.
2. "The Great Transmigration of peoples." Migration at the turn of the century seriously changed the ethnic picture in the region. Mass departure of the "European" population in the 1990s, labor migration in the 2000s, and spontaneous migration seriously touched millions of people. In Kazakhstan alone, according to experts' estimates, internal and external migration processes influenced 9,475,000, or almost 58 percent of the republic's population during the past twenty years. At present Central Asia stands on the threshold of more serious changes in the sphere of migration, which can rightly be called "Great Migration of peoples." We shall note the basic elements of this process.
First, due to large-scale emigration, a sharp reduction in the number of the "European" population in Central Asia has taken place, and this process will continue. In 1970 there were more than 11 million "Europeans" (about one-third of the population), whereas by 2010 their number dwindled to 5.6 million, that is, nine percent of the population. In all, during the twenty years that have passed since the disintegration of the U.S.S.R., about five million people left the region mainly for Russia, Ukraine, Germany and Israel. The only country in Central Asia where "Europeans" comprise a considerable share is Kazakhstan.
According to forecasts, in the first half of the 21st century the share of the Russian-speaking population in the region will continue to diminish due to low birthrate and emigration. By the middle of this century the complete "de-Europianisation" of Central Asia will take place. However, the question as to who will take their place in the economy and social sphere remains open so far.
Secondly, the active urbanization of aboriginal ethnic groups is going on in Central Asia. Emigration of "European" city-dwellers and the acute crisis of agriculture and overpopulation of rural districts have contributed to the hundreds of thousands of rural inhabitants moving to towns in search of work, housing and better living conditions. This process has been more rapid and noticeable in Kazakhstan. Beginning from 2010 the share of the Kazakh ethnos in the urban population of the republic exceeded sixty percent. More than two-thirds of Kazakhs now live in towns and cities. The share of the urban population in Uzbekistan is high enough, too (51 percent), and in Turkmenistan (50 percent). The bulk of urban dwellers consists of representatives of the indigenous people. In Tajikistan, where the de-urbanization process has been going on, a considerable part of the population has experience of urban life, it is actively involved in labor migration, and lives and works in big cities of Russia and Kazakhstan several months a year.
Thirdly, Central Asia may expect a greater scope of external labor migration. The population of the region is relatively young -average age of its inhabitants is about 26. The able-bodied part of the population (from 15 to 64 years of age) will comprise 65-67 percent, on average, in the foreseeable future, which means a continuing load on the labor market as a long-term prospect. In the conditions of the inability of the countries of the region to ensure the necessary number of jobs, the only way out is greater export of manpower.
3. The formation of new identities. The 21st century will be distinguished by the formation process of new identities. Mass migration of the population within the region and outside it, urbanization and industrialization, new processes in the religious sphere, etc. will contribute to the disintegration of traditional social ties, formation of new communities and identities, and, possibly, the emergence of new nations. The formation of new identities will, doubtless, take place on the basis of religion. The growth of religious consciousness in Central Asia has contributed not only to the revival of traditional confessions, but also the emergence of new religious groups. It is worth mentioning two "new" religious currents.
The first includes the emergence of "new" religious Islamic groups in the region in the mid-1990s. Many international Islamic organizations have unfolded their activity in Central Asia, for instance, "Khizb-ut-Tahrir." After it was acknowledged as extremist in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan in 1999-2003, many "new" Islamic groups went underground, and the system of their management was decentralized - a great many small autonomous and semi-autonomous groups have emerged. They constantly broaden their activity, despite mass arrests of their activists and pressure of the authorities. At present it is not possible to establish even the approximate number of underground Islamic groups, although, there are tens of thousands of their members, primarily in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. The growth of their members cannot be stopped by the fact that in the past fifteen years more than ten thousand people in Central Asian countries were sentenced to various prison terms for propaganda of radical religious ideas. Members of the "Khizb-ut-Tahrir" try to create cells of their organization even in prisons and forced labor camps. Islamic radicals are recruited mainly from poor uneducated people. However, among the members of "new" Islamic
groups are many people with a higher education and entrepreneurs, and they carry on propaganda of their ideas mainly in cities and suburban settlements. Along with the growth of the urban population, their activity will also increase.
The second religious current worth attention is the "new" Christians (primarily, Pentecostalists, Evangelists, Jehova Witnesses, etc.), who have unfolded energetic missionary activity in Central Asia after the disintegration of the U.S.S.R. The number of their members is constantly growing, despite serious pressure of the authorities, and they are increasingly joined by representatives of local ethnic groups who are traditionally Muslims (Kazakhs, Kyrgyzs and Uzbeks). According to certain data, in Kyrgyzstan, among the local Protestants forty percent are Kyrgyzs. Although there are no exact data, one can safely say that there are hundreds of thousands of Protestants in Kazakhstan, and dozens of thousands in other countries of the region. In the number of the officially registered religious organizations the Protestants are ahead of the Orthodox Christian communities in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. The opportunities of Protestant missionaries are illustrated by the situation in South Korea, which from a country of Buddhism and traditional cults turned into a country where Christianity became the faith of thirty percent of the population in the latter half of the
20th century.
The problem of identities will touch on national minorities, too. The emigration of "Europeans" from Central Asia, which will continue in the first half of the 21st century, will not take off the agenda the problems connected with the ethnic minorities in the region. First, representatives of the ethnic groups which are titular in some countries, are minorities in others (for instance, Uzbeks). Secondly, in Central Asia there are many small Asian ethnic groups, both autochthonous (Uighurs, Dungans, Kara-Kalpaks, Pamiers, and others), and
representatives of peoples who settled in the region in the 20th century (Koreans, Kurds, Azerbaijanis, Chechens, and others). Representatives of these people, in contrast to "Europeans," do not intend to emigrate en masse from Central Asia. Their number remains practically unchanged (Koreans), or increases (Uighurs, Dungans). Besides they live compactly and form rather stable communities. The place and role of ethnic minorities in the region remains indefinite. Pressure on the part of "titular" nations, the problem of the preservation of the native language and religion, complex socio-economic situation - all these factors will serve as an impetus to search for support and may become the foundation for new identities.
All these changes will evidently play a serious role in the development of international relations in Central Asia and around it.
List of sources and literature
1. All-Union population census of 1970. National composition of the population by the republics of the U.S.S.R. Information bulletin "Demoscope Weekly." URL.: http://demoscope.ru/weekly/ssp/ sng_nac_70.php
2. Report on freedom of conscience for 2011. Official site of the U.S. Embassy in Kyrgyzstan. URL.: http://russia.bishkek.usembassy.gov/_12.htm1
3. National composition, confessions and knowledge of languages in the Republic of Kazakhstan. Astana, 2012.
4. Extremists sentenced and kept in prison in Uzbekistan have organized a network of cells of "Khizb ut-Tahrir". Site of "Interfax" news agency. URL.: http://www. interfax-religion.ru/yz/?act=news&div-30682
5. Urbanization in Central Asia: Challenges, Problems and Prospects // Center of Economic Research. Tashkent, 2013.
"Mezhdunarodniye otnosheniya v XX-XXI veke (Materialy mezhdunarodnoi nauchnoi konferentsii UFU.) ", Ekaterinburg, 30-31 oktyabrya, 2013, pp. 141-145.
