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MODELING THE RESULTS OF FACTOR ANALYSIS IN THE CORPORATE FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
A.L. Nevmerzhitsky, Postgraduate Student Ural Federal University (Russia, Yekaterinburg)
DOI:10.24412/2411-0450-2024-7-168-172
Abstract. In this study, the author makes an attempt to model the impact of key factors for the construction industry on the profitability and prospects for the development of a corporate entity in general. Factor decomposition, as a method of modeling, was chosen by the author due to the universality of the analysis of factors of the external conjuncture and for subsequent ranking. The result of the study was a model representation of the influence of factors on the volume of financing of a construction project based on the forecasting of incoming and outgoing transactions in the context of the financial management system.
Keywords: factor analysis, financial management, modeling, forecasting.
The basis of all business processes without exception is the financial management system. The lack of a well-built and well-functioning financial management system makes a corporate entity uncompetitive, even if it is overwhelmed with promising technologies [2]. The dynamism of the external situation for the subject affects the sources and conditions of its financing, and, therefore, the financial condition and leads to a change in profitability as a complex final indicator [1].
The objective reason that prompts corporate entities to resort to the formation of a financial management system is the need to attract financing, mainly credit resources and investments. This fully applies to develop-
ment, which is a rapidly developing industry, but at the same time very sensitive, if not dependent on the conditions for attracting financing. In addition to loans and investments, development is guided by a number of factors that form the conditions for doing business in a broad sense - these are geopolitical conditions, and programs of state support for mortgages, which have greatly changed the situation in the domestic real estate market, and regional features of legislation, and demand for housing due to the income of the population, and a number of others.
All these factors have a different impact on the prospects for the development of a corporate entity (Figure 1).
Degree of influence of factors
Changing corporate strategy
O
Dynamics of the cost per square meter in the region
Developing partnerships with local companies
Changes in the competitive environm^^^
O
Changes in legislation
o
o
O
Innovative potential of the region
o
Curtailment of state mortgage support programs Changes in the geopolitical situation
O o
O
Changes in lending terms
Interaction with regional authorities
Prospects for the development of a corporate entity
Fig. 1. Modeling the results of factor analysis
The figure presents the results of factor analysis in the format of a model, which shows the distribution of risks on a conditional scale and the assessment of the degree of their impact on the prospects that are significant for the subject.
The most significant factor for any positive prospects of a corporate entity has been and remains the conditions for attracting financing. Developers traditionally attract funds from real estate buyers to invest in construction, which, since 2019, in accordance with Article 15 of the Federal Law of 30.12.2004 № 214-FL (as amended on 14.02.2024) "On participation in shared construction of apartment buildings and other real estate objects and on amendments to certain legislative acts of the Russian Federation" have been accumulated in escrow accounts and provide guarantees for the fulfillment of obligations by the parties. Actually, financial management is carried out taking into account the specifics of attracting credit resources - it is important to maintain a balance between the volume of funds in escrow accounts and the volumes involved in construction. If this balance is in favor of escrow accounts, then the cost of credit resources used is significantly lower than the market [3].
Moving on to the legal to scientific aspects of the organization of the financial management system, the author notes that modeling the financing of construction and all activities of the developer should be considered in the context of macroeconomic volatility and the use of state support instruments, which make credit resources much more attractive for real estate buyers compared to market conditions.
Investors and creditors involved in the financing of capital-intensive projects are also interested in state aid programs, since they consider it as additional guarantees, and therefore an advantage that is not available to all sectors of the national economy [5].
Modeling of a truly adequate financial management system that meets the real tasks takes place on the basis of theoretical and methodological provisions of financial science [6]. This is possible through the substantiation of key indicators of calculations of all factors accompanying both independent and
state financing of construction, which can be implemented in several forms:
- repayment of part of the interest on the loan;
- provision of subsidies, subventions or grants;
- loan guarantee;
- concession agreement within the framework of the PPP mechanism.
The provision of direct state financing is fundamentally different from all other forms of support, since it provides for the return of interest on attracted credit resources, so the calculation can be carried out according to the formula:
Tl-nv = Qinv + Qgv + 2t=1 icr
(1)
where: TI%V - the total amount of investments with state support; - the volume of attracted private investment; - the amount of public funds attracted to the project; - the amount of repaid interest on attracted credit resources.QinvQgv *Zl=i qtcr
Next, we form the total amount of funds raised by the developer to finance the facility under construction:
TI = TI + TI
i Í77-1; 11 rr ^ 11-
priv
(2)
where: TInv is the amount of total financing; = , that is, total credit investments are the amount of the developer's costs for credit resources; - the volume of attracted private investment. TIcrTCcrTI1^^lv
As noted above, one of the forms of state participation may be the reimbursement of interest on loans, in which case debt service is not taken into account:
Tlcr = [Q-%=iqtcr X n=i to] X(1-
tax) (3)
In this case, we will rewrite the total investment:
TI
1 l -n
= [Q-^qcrxnUvt] x(i-
tax) + Qinv + Qgv (4)
To calculate the relative efficiency indicator, such as the profitability of credit resources attracted by the developer, the author considers the use of the following expression to be justified:
R6cr
NPr
00%(5)
x
x(1-tax)
where: Recr - profitability of the use of credit resources.
Thus, the justification for calculating the profitability of construction financing is obtained, taking into account the cost of credit resources and reducing the tax burden.
It is logical that to calculate the profitability of the entire volume of investments attracted by the developer (taking into account credit funds) within the framework of the construction financing mechanism, we use the following construction:
NPr
Q-£t=i Qcr„nT
xní=iMt
Retotal =
- x 100%
x(1-tax)+ Qinv+ QgV
(6)
Thus, the author proposes to assess the profitability of financing by calculating profitability, the economic meaning of which is as follows: the profitability of the funds raised by the developer shows what profit they gen-
erate, that is, how efficiently the component investment capital is used.
Using the term "component", the author proceeds from the structure of attracted financing - at least three-component: escrow lending, state participation and private investment.
The indicator proposed by the author is fundamentally different from other types of profitability, it can be used only for such cases when investments are complexly structured in terms of conditions and sources, that is, they have a component structure.
In conclusion, we present a model of factor analysis, potentially integrated into the financial management system and therefore being a universal methodological apparatus for managing cash flows of any corporate entity.
It should be noted that the proposed model makes it possible to predict cash flows taking into account the factors of cash inflow and outflow. The model is schematically presented in Figure 2.
The use of modeling makes it possible to neglect operational processes in the aspect of simplification and focus research attention on the final result - cash flows [4].
One way or another, simplification highlights the main thing that interests the subject of financial management - the key parameter for assessing the state of a corporate entity -profitability.
T
Fig. 2. Modeling of factor analysis through forecasting the amount of project financing
As can be seen from the model scheme, the ment of a sufficient level of profitability -main issue to be solved in the process of the through the assessment of the balance in the company's activities is the balance of cash corporate financial management system. flows in such a way as to ensure the achieve-
References
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МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ РЕЗУЛЬТАТОВ ФАКТОРНОГО АНАЛИЗА В СИСТЕМЕ КОРПОРАТИВНОГО ФИНАНСОВОГО МЕНЕДЖМЕНТА
А.Л. Невмержицкий, аспирант Уральский федеральный университет (Россия, г. Екатеринбург)
Аннотация. В настоящем исследовании автором предпринята попытка модельного представления влияния ключевых для строительной отрасли факторов на рентабельность и в целом перспективы развития корпоративного субъекта. Факторная декомпозиция, как метод моделирования избран автором по причине универсальности анализа факторов внешней конъюнктуры и для последующего ранжирования. Результатом исследования стало модельное представление влияния факторов на объемы финансирования строительного проекта исходя из прогнозирования входящих и исходящих транзакций в контексте системы финансового менеджмента.
Ключевые слова: факторный анализ, финансовый менеджмент, моделирование, прогнозирование.
