CC BY
79
--Management -
UDC 330.322 : 620.91 (477)
I. I. Pavlenko,
DrHab (Economics), European University, Kyiv
MODELING OF INVESTMENT ATTRACTIVENESS OF ENERGY ENTERPRISES OF UKRAINE UNDER GLOBALIZATION (COAL INDUSTRY CASE STUDY)
A strive of the coal-mining enterprises for investment is their priority objective under conditions of economic crisis. Innovative development of the enterprises is primarily attained through upgrading their mining assets, operation technology and raising safety standards. The implementation of clean coal technologies, coal extraction and enrichment requires a significant investment in the geological and marketing research, and studies of the technical, technological and economic conditions. Formation of appropriate investment strategy requires finding sources of business finance; therefore the creation of the two areas of investment at the level of industry and enterprise in the framework of the strategy is of particular importance.
The Strategy of the Coal Industry Development to 2030 indicates the state to be a major investor in the coal industry for the next 20 years. However, the Strategy envisages the reduction of funding for their businesses and access to self-sufficiency of production. The application of the clean coal technologies of extraction and enrichment is a key development strategy of coal enterprises through simulation of innovations, which makes up the research topic worthy.
This study is based on the contributions made by a number of researchers into exploration of the issues related to funding innovative development of the coalmining enterprises: A. Alymov, A. Amosha [2, p. 3], A. Akmayev [1, p. 129], A. Astakhov, O. Wagons, D. Halushko, T. Hatova, G. Provinces, F. Evdokimov, M. Ivanov, A. Kabanov, I. Pavlenko, I. Petenko [5, p. 255], B. Reichel, V. Sally [6, p. 22]. However, we attempt to use modeling of the industrial development in order to focus on the core unsolved problems of ensuring investment policy of implementing the clean coal technologies and raising capacity of coal mining assets. Besides, there is a need to study the concept of evaluating the status of each coal mine.
The purpose of the study is modeling the process of investing in the innovative development of the coal industry. The framework of the study purpose involve a necessity to solve such problems as the analysis of the current forms of reproduction industry, identifying key problems and inefficient use of funds to construct a model of evaluation of investment attractiveness of mines including sectoral priorities and trends on the
world coal market in the context of sustainable development.
Mining industry as a set of individual enterprises has a structure's ability, because new construction and reconstruction (modernization) are elements in different directions; closure of some mines is also of this structure elements. Its formation depends on the relation between coal-mining enterprises at some period of time at which carried out various forms of reproduction industry (simple, extended, narrowed). According to some form of reproduction separate enterprises and industry, based on a systematic approach, have identifying an appropriate funding sources: a simple reproduction of a separate enterprise is obliged to finance the enterprise itself and extended - an industry that can attract investment funds from different sources. In this case the volume of industry investments is not the sum of individual enterprises investments under these conditions Investments provided mainly "on demand", when there is a need for in the process of development of mine, construction or reconstruction of the separate elements of technological lines or buying equipment. All these possible sources of concerning enterprise and industry has its own advantages and disadvantages and a focus that is desirable to increase or decrease the share of appropriate sources (Table 1).
Table 1
Desired funding coal mining enterprises *
Source of investment Desired focus share of investment
for individual enterprise for the industry for the state budget
State budget funds increasing increasing reduction
Own funds reduction increasing increasing
Bank Loans reduction reduction reduction
Borrowed funds reduction reduction increasing
* Developed by author based on data [3, p. 29].
The dynamics of coal industry financing structure by source in accordance with "The Strategy" provides a temporary increase of the state budget share from 72.6% in 2007 to 77.5% in 2011, would be followed by
a gradual decline to 67.0% in 2030 , reducing the share of own funds of enterprises from 27.2% in 2007 to 14.7% in 2030 and increasing the share of other private sources from 1.0% in 2007 to 18.4% in 2030. Thus the average annual volumes of financing are increasing by the state budget from 2.25 billion in 2007 to 4.51 billion in 2014.
The leading role in sources of investment financing plays the state budget and own assets. Bank loans as well as borrowed funds aims facilitate financing for a certain time period or even be absent.
The leading role in investment financing plays the state budget and own assets of the enterprises. Bank loans as well as borrowed funds aims to facilitate financing for a certain period of time or even be absent.
We are conducting a systematic analysis of objects related to the conservation capacity potential of mines by the degree of development of average annual estimated cost (Table 2). The study includes 91 object, including new construction, reconstruction and technical re-equipment of the Capacity Expansion - 34 and reconstruction and technical requipment without the capacity expansion - 57 objects. Assets under construction are 855 because of insufficient of capital investment, which it is used to construct a total of 5.01 billion. capital investments. Continuous under-funding of capital construction (volume decreased by 3.8 times -from 870 million. In 1991 to 229.4 million. In 2013) has caused a sharp reduction in construction works, including carry out preparatory workings decreased from 2232.7 km in 1990 to 639.2 km in 2013.
Index by groups of objects
reconstruction reconstruction technical retooling with an increase of capacity technical retooling
Indicators Data unit new construction increment of of capacity without the capacity expansion without the capacity expansion Total
The number of objects object 7 18 20 9 37 91
Started work by groups of objects 1965 1984 1979 1982 1979
The estimated
cost of construction mln. UAH 2702 5961 3559 1106 3789 17117
The average estimates cost of object mln. UAH 386 331 178 121 102 188
Disbursed cost
estimate limit of 01.01.2008 mln. UAH 1516 1421 1655 541 1726 6559
Disbursed cost
estimate limit of 01.01.2013 % 56,1 23,8 46,5 48,9 45,6 40,0
The distribution of objects at the average annual percentage of estimated cost for disbursedcost estimate limit of 01.01.2013
less than 1,00 object /% disbursed 6 / 11,9 8 / 10,9 2 / 7,5 9 / 11,5
1,01 - 2,00 - // - 2 / 53,3 3 / 18,7 8 / 38,8 - 4 / 18,6 17 / 36,0
2,01 - 3,00 - // - 1 / 50,8 3 / 38,8 3 / 51,5 5 / 44,3 5 / 51,8 17 / 47,1
3,01 - 5,00 - // - 3 / 70,5 4 / 56,8 3 / 47,6 1 / 73,5 9 / 71,8 20 / 63,9
5,01 - 10,00 - // - - 1 / 48,1 5 / 9,2 1 / 100,0 9 / 67,8 16 / 66,1
more 10,0 - // - 1 /100,0 1 / 58,6 - 2 / 35,3 8 / 59,4 12 / 54,8
The average annual estimated
cost
disbursedcost estimate limit by % 1,40 1,19 1,86 2,22 1,82 -
groups objects
Table 2
Development of cost estimate limit by groups objects from 2008-2013*
* Developed by author based on data [7, c. 24-83]. EKOHOMHHHH BicHHK ^,OH6acy № 4(38), 2014
All objects will divide into the following groups (in percent per year): from development to 1.00; 1,012,00; 2,01-3,00; 3,01-5,00; 5,01-10,00; more than 10.00 per year. The calculation results are shown in Table. 2.
Work on the preparation and disclosure of excavation or field training layers and layers of support or capacity increase mine that it is work, caused by the development of mines in the space are characteristic of most of the point out groups (particularly the first four). Out of the total estimated cost of the object (17.117 billion.) only 57% (9,769 million.) accounts for elements intensive development industry (new construction, reconstruction and technical re-equipment of power increase). Thus, almost half of the volume of financing from state budget accounts for support of capacity of existing enterprises, that is a simple reproduction.
All objects will divide into the following groups (in percent per year): from development to 1.00; 1,012,00; 2,01-3,00; 3,01-5,00; 5,01-10,00; more than 10.00 per year. The calculation results are shown in Table. 2.
Work on the preparation and disclosure of excavation or field training layers and layers of support or capacity increase mine that it is work, caused by the development of mines in the space are characteristic of most of the point out groups (particularly the first four). Out of the total estimated cost of the object (17.117 billion.) only 57% (9,769 million.) accounts for elements intensive development industry (new construction, reconstruction and technical re-equipment of power increase). Thus, almost half of the volume of financing from state budget accounts for support of capacity of existing enterprises, that is a simple reproduction.
Determined that in real conditions when it is desirable to facilitate intensity of the state budget and increase the share of own funds, the role of loans can be increased, especially under favorable credit terms (low bank rate). It is obvious, that terms of construction is so stretched unacceptable, particularly, when you consider the work of minefield. Based on the above, it can be concluded, that the investment policy, carried out for a long time, was unsatisfactory, because it has the following principal errors:
- mainly funding of facilities the simple (extensive) reproduction in loss extended objects (intensive) development;
- distribution of unsatisfactory by volume funding between numerous objects;
- focus on the prolonged timing of planned of work on individual objectst, that it generates large volumes of work in progress.
The long periods of construction is not objectively necessary. They are subjective because they arise due to the managing investments process, but when we
detailed study of issue - it is not, although volume of financing is really insufficient. Whatever volume of financing, including insufficient, there is another aspect of the issue - use of it that is. As the possibility of "less need", then the easiest method of apportionment - give all of equally and gradually, as happens in reality. Is much more difficult to make allocation on the principle of most efficient use of available resourcesthat it is targeted. For this purpose, in particular, is necessary quantify the "state of mine" and determine what to expect from this mine, if it provides the particular funding.
There is a need to develop scientifically based of methodological approach to determining the investment attractiveness of coal mines influenced by predefined the system of environmental and industrial factors. That economic subsystem mine is determined interaction of the other two subsystems: the extraction of mineral resources and the preparation of new reserves to further working out.
Adapting the methodology of quantitative assessment of the investment attractiveness of the choice to build a favorable investment objects. The difficulty lies in the fact that certain factors that describe the state mine directly to not comparable with each other, such as the depth of mining of coal and the kinds of coal. Accounting for the effects all existing factors is rather complicated, therefore is required choose from the main of them that really shape the extent investment attractiveness of mine. It is advisable to determine investment attractiveness of the mine as a quantitative index of the state, which preliminary (without the project) describes as feasibility maintain or increase the capacity of the enterprise, with a larger value of the index corresponds to a higher degree of relevance. Investment attractiveness of mine is characterized geological base and the level of development of industrial factors, and hence the attractiveness index should take into account both of these factors. The quantitative influence major environmental and of industrial factors on investment attractiveness mine is shown in Table. 3.
The study suggests, index of investment attractiveness (I) of the mine as a whole to determine as composition of these nine factors, with the value I have a level of 0.6 ... 3.3. In particular, for mine "Komso-molets Donbas" industrial factors provided at the level of 2.4, and environmental - 0.6. The smaller value of this index corresponds to less investment attractiveness, that is reconstruction and maintenance of such mines requires more capital investments (to bring these mines to the level of large, efficient operating companies).
This approach makes it possible to rank mine according to their investment attractiveness and opens the possibility of an objective and substantially to approach to solving the issue about whom or advisable
preferable to send investment, the total of which is always limited.
Table 3
The complex of natural and industrial factors that determine the level of investment attractiveness of mines *
Determination of the index of investment attractiveness provides an opportunity to make a a comparative assessment of the state mines, but then is necessary with the mine aggregate got with higher index of investment attractiveness to choose the specific mine which should to send resources of capital investments. Established that of nine factors that describing investment attractiveness mine is most closely related with the capital investment capacity are capacity seems and throughput the main parts of the enterprise. The larger capacity and less through put varies some basic parts of the mine, the less need for capital investment to support or increase the capacity of mine.
At the same capital investments in these coal mines you can obtain greater effect. It is therefore logical to consider these mines a perspective and invest is primarily in such enterprises. Based on these common prerequisites, it is advisable to use a quantitative index of perspective mines that enables determine the sequence of of capital investments by some enterprises under limited of investment opportunities in the industry.
We analyzing the group of mines in one region or some mines from different regions in a mode of comparison of, we obtain a list of mines that have different levels of technical, economic and financial indicators. As a result, these mines have different investment attractiveness, and the task is put on targeting and a priority for investments. We suggest a mechanism of comprehensive assessment of investment attractiveness and priority of mines.
First of all, we determine for each mine level of economic of reliability and attractiveness. These parameters are indicative of internal reserves of the mine in terms of favorable to invest, and on this basis we
divided the mine into 3 groups (leaders, middle and closing) with appropriate assessment on a five point scale. Each score is the aggregate estimation of indexes the mine (combined coefficient of, the level of investment attractiveness). The higher the score, the greater the probability of transition to another group of the enterprise, and subsequently larger size of investment.
The next stage of research is to construct a model identifying perspective mines. As the objective function is adopted the maximum of coefficients of perspective mine:
A = ]TG1 ^ max, (1)
1=1
limitations:
n n 15 K
X k, < K ; X D, > Do; n =--> 10;
,=1 ,=1 q
Gt = mq, X tq, . (2)
Conventional signs in models (1) - (2):
A - the objective function; K - the annual volume of capital investments allocated for the reconstruction of the mine again; q - the average annual resource development capital investments in once again reconstructed the mine; n - amount of the mines that can be reconstructed according to available investments; 1.5 -reserve ratio of the considered mine (in order to prove amount them of not less than 10); q, - the index
of the mine under consideration, i = 1, n; mq, - mqi -capacity of seams on i-mine (relative indicator);
i = 1, n'; tq, - technological reliability coefficient ,-
mine i = 1, n ; G, - coefficient of perspective i-mme
i = 1, n' ; k, - amount of capital capacity (annual) for
i-mine; D, - mining in the i-mine i = 1, n' ; Do -specified or desired production levels.
This index for groups of Dobropilskiy mine is 4, but for mine Torez-Snizhne region this index is 2. The combination of mine with the largest values of the index of perspective with further targeted prospects investment is determined by the number of perspective of mines.
Suggested model is adapted to the conditions of partial reduction potential of enterprises concerning mining of anthracite in terms of transformation is relatively to perspective the mine to infrastructure of Torez region under the criterion rising living standards. It is established that the level of investment of 400 million. and the availability of funds in the amount of 50 UAH. on 1 ton capacity the mine "Progress" is capable by 2015 to increase production volumes of high quality coal to 1.1 million tons per year in of labor productivity 41 tons per month. The mine would have been self-sufficient enterprise and it has reached a level of profit
Environmental factors Industrial factors
The residual mineral reserves Throughput the main units (production processes) of mine
Capacity coal seams being developed The complexity of underground of mine management
Immutability seams within the limits a mine field The production capacity of the mine
The depth of mining of coal The average volume of annual production for several years
The kinds of coal
* Developed by the author based on data [4. with. 411].
that is larger before tax in 2015 amounted to about 35 million UAH over a five year period.
Therefore, identification of the index of investment attractiveness provides an opportunity to make a comparative estimation of the state mines and making use of the aggregate of the mines having the highest indices of investment attractiveness to choose the group of specific mines, which deserve allocation of the larges resources of capital investments. The coal seams and capacity of the main parts of the mines are shown to be the most closely associated with the capital investment capacity of the nine factors that characterize the investment attractiveness of the mine. The more the capacity of the coal seams and less varies of the capacity of some basic parts of the mine, the less capital investment is required to maintain or increase the mine capacity.
To attract loans of international banks it is required to disclosure the patterns in volatility of the mine prospective values, which are of paramount importance while forming the regional budget, and also creation of an anti-crisis program of coal regions development. Social and environmental aspects of coal regions require further investigation in the context of globalization to create programs that support the miners, subject to early retirement and projects that support areas of abandoned mines and provide their sustaina-bility, greening processes in the mines and use of the clean coal technologies in mining and enrichment of coal. Adaptation of international experience in creating and implementation of these programs will have a positive effect not only on investment of the region, but also on the increase of the overall innovative activity.
References
1. Akmayev A.I., Byelozertsev O. V., 2011. Finding ways to integrate of coal mining enterprises, [Poshuk shlyakhiv intehratsiyi vuhledobuvnykh pidpryyemstv], Teoretychni ta prykladni pytannya ekonomiky : zb. nauk. pr. Vyp. 24. - K. : Kyiv, pp. 128-137. 2. Amosha A. I., Kabanov A. I., Starichenko L. L., 2008. About an investment ensuring of coal mining in Ukraine, [Ob investicionnom obespechenii ugledobychi v Ukraine], Ugol' Ukrainy. - K. : Tehnika, № 7. pp. 3-6. 3. Pavlenko I. I., 2007. Management of investment processes in the coal industry of Ukraine, [Upravlenie investicionnymi processami v ugol'noj promyshlennosti Ukrainy]. - D. : NGU, 253 pp. 4. Pavlenko I. I., Oliynyk S. P., 2007. Assessment of innovation activity as a part of the investment attractiveness of the mine, [Otsinka innovatsiynoyi aktyv-nosti yak skladovoyi investytsiynoyi pryvablyvosti shakhty], Ekonomichnyy Visnyk NHU. - D. : NHU, № 1. - pp. 4-11. 5. Petenko I. V., 2001. Methods for assessing the effectiveness of different resource conservation areas in the coal industry, [Metody ocenki
jeffektivnosti razlichnyh napravlenij resursosbere-zhenija v ugol'noj promyshlennosti], Vestnik nac. tehn.un-ta HPI: Tehnicheskij progress i jeffektivnost' proizvodstva. - Har'kov: HPI. - Vyp. 24, ch.1. -pp. 255-258. 6. Salli V. I., Salli S. V., 2009. To create a system of assessment of coal mines, [K sozdaniju sistemy ocenki sostojanija ugol'nyh shaht], Ugol' Ukrainy. - K. : Tehnika. № 6. - pp. 15-28. 7. Statistical Bulletin "Regions of Ukraine", [Statystychnyy zbir-nyk «Rehiony Ukrayiny»], 2011 [za red. O. H. Osa-ulenko] // Derzhavna sluzhba statystyky Ukrayiny. -K. : Derzhavna sluzhba statystyky Ukrayiny, - 358 pp.
Павленко I. I. Моделювання швестицшноТ привабливост пщприемств енергетичного комплексу УкраТни в умовах глоб&тзацп (вуглеви-добувний комплекс)
В стал виявлено причини провалу irnecT^rn-но1 полгтики на вуглевидобувних тдприемствах. До^дження показуе, що imecTO^i' в основному спрямоваш на екстенсивне вщтворення тдпри-емств, що е досить тривалим у часг
Запропонована методика дозволяе ощнити ш-вестицшну привабливють вуглевидобувних тдп-риемств та 11 основш взаемозв'язки промислових та природних факторiв, як визначають прiоритетнiсть об'екпв для швестування в контекстi стiйкого роз-витку вугшьно! промисловостi.
Група природних та технолопчних факторiв визначають iнвестидiйну привабливють вугшьних пiдприемств, як обранi та грунтуються на основi дослiдження виробничих запасiв шахти.
Кожен фактор ощнюеться кшькюно з викорис-танням порiвняних характеристик. Розроблено алгоритм для визначення взаемного впливу перера-хованих факторiв на рiвень економiчноl надiйностi шахт!
Ключовi слова: iнновацiйний розвиток, моделювання, державна тдтримка, державне фшансу-ваня, вугiльна промисловiсть, капiтальнi вкладення, адресне iнвестування.
Павленко И. И. Моделирование инвестиционной привлекательности предприятий энергетического комплекса Украины в условиях глобализации (угледобывающий комплекс)
В статье выявлены причины провала инвестиционной политики на угольных предприятиях. Исследование показывает, что инвестиции в основном направлены на экстенсивное воспроизводство и что долго во времени.
Предложенная методика позволяет оценить инвестиционную привлекательность угледобывающих предприятий и ее основные взаимосвязи промышленных и природных факторов, которые определяют приоритетность объектов для инвестиций в контексте устойчивого развития угольной промышленности.
Группа природных и технологических факторов, определяющих инвестиционную привлекательность угольных шахт, которые выбраны и обоснованы на основе исследования производственных запасов шахты.
Каждый фактор оценивается количественно с использованием сравнительных характеристик. Разработан алгоритм для определения взаимного влияния вышеуказанных факторов на уровень экономической надежности_шахты.
Ключевые слова: инновационное развитие, моделирование, государственная поддержка, государственное финансирование, угольная промышленность, капитальные вложения, адресное инвестирование.
Pavlenko I. I. Modeling of Investment Attractiveness of Energy Enterprises of Ukraine under Globalization (Coal Industry Case Study)
The paper identifies causes of the failure of investment policy at coal-mining enterprises. The study shows that investment is mostly aimed at extensive reproduction and extension projects of time that requires immediate completion. The method suggested allows assessing investment attractiveness of coal-
mining enterprises and it highlights a relationship of the industrial and environmental factors that determines a priority of objects for investment in the context of the coal industry sustainable development.
A group of natural and industrial factors which determine investment attractiveness of coal mines are selected and grounded on the basis of study of production elements of the mine.
Every factor is valued quantitatively with the use of comparative (model) characteristics. The algorithm to determine mutual influence of abovestated factors on the level of economic reliability of the mine is developed. As a result, groups of mines are formed using the grade system in order to ensure that the addressee will be chosen but in accordance with the level of investment attractiveness.
There are generalized ideas of coal sector future development as for lifetime of mines, quality of reserves, and information about new construction sites as well as expediency to reconstruct a part of mine stock, and necessity to close unpromising mines which worked out their qualitative recerves.
Keywords: innovation development, modeling, clean coal technology, government funding, coal industry, capital investments, address investment.
Received by the editors: 21.10.2014
and final form 23.12.2014
