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естественной циркуляции. Приведены функциональные зависимости безразмерной температуры и числа Нуссельта. Выявлено, что температура в обоих случаях характеризуется линейным изменением по длине, но неодинаковым законом распределения температуры по радиусу. Приведённый анализ может быть полезным, как для дальнейших теоретических исследований в данной области, так и для решения практических задач по теплообмену.
Список использованной литературы:
1. Петухов Б.С. Теплообмен и сопротивление при ламинарном течении жидкости в трубах. М.: Энергия. 1967. 409 с.
2. Канарейкин А. И. Решение задачи теплообмена при естественной циркуляции внутри теплообменника с вытяжной шахтой в ламинарной области течения // Вестник Челябинского государственного педагогического университета. Челябинск. 2009. №11. С.328-333.
© Канарейкин А.И., 2021
УДК 62
Тузел Ж.Б. студент ЕНУ(гр. МАУ-21) Научный руководитель: Абдугулова Ж.К.
к.т.н., доц ЕНУ
MODELING AN ENTERPRISE DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY BASED ON A SYSTEM
OF BALANCED INDICATORS
Abstract
Theoretical and methodological mechanisms for the formation and implementation of the strategy are being developed development of an industrial enterprise based on the optimization of the balanced scorecard. For this, with the help of structural and functional analysis, the structure of the BSC is designed. To make effective management decisions when modeling the scenario of the development of a situation, it is preferable to use expert systems. The consistency of expert opinions is checked using the coefficient Concordance of Kendal. The application of the Kohonen neural network for generating variants is substantiated BSC depending on the chosen strategy. As a result, a strategy is being implemented that allows you to achieve the most quickly achievable goals and become more competitive and technologically advanced.
Keywords:
balanced scorecard, Kohonen neural networks, strategic control.
Modern domestic industrial enterprises operate in an environment of growing uncertainty and fierce competition. The unstable economic situation, growing consumer demand, the development of information technology, etc. - All this leads to a revision of the concepts of strategic management and the actualization of research in this area. In a dynamically changing environment, an enterprise must constantly assess its economic performance, financial condition, the degree of influence of the external environment and its competitiveness. In this regard, the goals and objectives of strategic management must constantly improve and improve in accordance with the requirements of a rapidly changing market economy. At the same time, experience shows that attempts to use foreign strategic planning and management tools in Russia do not give the desired results, since they do not take into account the specifics of the Russian economy. Understanding that the previously developed methods for
assessing business performance are less consistent with the goals of strategic enterprise management, leads us to the need to develop new approaches and technologies in modeling the enterprise development strategy.
The purpose of this work is to develop theoretical and methodological mechanisms for the formation and implementation of a strategy for the development of industrial enterprises based on the optimization of balanced scores (BSC).
When writing goals to achieve these goals, the following tasks are solved:
- Analysis of the methodological framework for strategic management and planning, published in domestic and foreign scientific journals, as well as existing methods and approaches to the practical solution of these problems in production.
- The concept of modeling the enterprise development strategy based on the optimization of a balanced map.
- Using the Cochineal neural network to create balanced versions of indicators depends on the chosen strategy.
In addition, this article presents new trends that may become key topics for doctoral students for future
researchers [1].
Introduction
Application in modeling cochineal neural networks enterprise development strategy
With the development of market relations in Kazakhstan, the importance of procurement increases, as well as the development and implementation of enterprise development strategies based on progressive methods of assessing and predicting the effectiveness of management decisions. To create a strategic management system, it is necessary to separate the company's strategy from various strategic aspects into specific strategic goals. By integrating individual goals, a causal relationship can be established between them so that the complete set of goals reflects the company's strategy. The planned results are characterized by strategic objectives. Each strategic goal is associated with one of the development prospects of the organization. Ideally, any enterprise should strive to achieve maximum profit R, increase competitiveness K and financial stability FU with a minimum level of risk R and adherence to investments I in the amount of budget funds I *. In addition, the level of risk exceeds the set R * threshold, and financial stability usually cannot fall below the set FU * threshold. Thus, the problem of determining a strategy is a problem of multidisciplinary selection, the variables of which can be written in the form of a system of equations. Development directions X1, ..., XS receive only one of the following two: 1 (implementation) and 0 (not implementation)):
' P(X1, ...,XS) ^ max,
K(X1,...,Xs)^max,
FU(X1, ...,Xs)^max
' R(X1,.,XS) ^min,
FU(X1,...,XS)>FU*, R(Xi.....XS)<R*,
{ I(Xi.....XS)<I*.
Solving multidimensional choice problems is reduced to finding optimal Pareto solutions by dividing the solution space into classes (constructing negative surfaces), reducing the vector criterion to a scalar one (convection methods, ideal point method). lexicographic optimization, the main criterion method). Dividing a space into classes requires a lot of information from the decision maker: it is necessary to classify the interior spaces and establish preferences for constructing surfaces of negativity in each of the interior spaces.
When modeling the scenario, expert systems should be used. The forecast is based on the use of traditional instruments, as well as instrumental instruments, operators who consider linear trends using "rich" statistics on time series. Note that with the help of tools based on the concept of neural networks and / or genetic algorithms, it is possible to make predictions on a relatively short-term basis, for example, crisis phenomena in the economy [2].
The procedural approach is more effective, which allows you to effectively combine the interests of different functional divisions of the company. In this case, it makes sense to divide the target instructions of the business
segments of the enterprise into several interrelated strategic perspectives. The balanced scorecard methodology is an ideal system that combines financial and non-financial indicators into one structure, which can be most beneficial for supporting management decisions [3]. The process approach provides detailed diagnostics of income and expenses required for the implementation of all processes and resources. It is clear that the requirements of foreign consumers are not ignored; it is known that this is one of the basic principles of modern management in accordance with international standards of the ISO 9000 series.
The system of goals developed during strategic planning is refined using indicators that measure these goals [4]. Indicators are a tool for assessing the performance of an enterprise and determining the degree of achievement of goals. In addition, goals must be clearly defined at the beginning of the strategy implementation process, as incorrectly formulated goals, even with the best performance, will not lead a company to success. For each strategic goal, no more than two or three indicators should be identified. No more than 100 indicators should be included, of which 80% should be non-financial. In the process of implementing the strategy, a strategic map of the most important areas of activity is created in which the company seeks to achieve results, i.e. prospects (finance, marketing, internal business processes, training and development) [5, 6].
To create versions of the BSC, it is necessary to collect opinions - a set of indicators, depending on the chosen strategy, should be included in the BSC. The consistency of the expert opinions is verified, for example, using the Kendall Conformity Factor:
W =
a,
факт _ Zf=1№=1 etj - 1n(m + 1)¥_ 122=1 D2
°МаКс 12n2m(m2 - 1) n2m(m2 - 1)
Where m-is the number of sets of indicators, n is the number of experts., sum of squares j = 1
difference between the sum of the degrees of a set of indicators and the average sum of ranks [7].
With the help of structural and functional analysis, the structure of the BSC is modeled: BSC = F(SWOT, St, Pr, X, M, Y, Kr), where SWOT - SWOT analysis matrix,
St= (st1, st2,...,stnst) an alternative set of enterprise development strategies, Pr= (pr1, pr2,...,prmax) - BSC diversity perspective, X= (x1, x2,...,xnx) - set of strategic goals M= (m , m ,...,m ) - set of indicators BSC, Y= (y1, y2,.,Vny) - a set of management decisions presented in the form of programs, projects, events, initiatives aimed at achieving the goals of countries, Kr= (kr1, kr2,...,krnkr) - The criteria for evaluating the optimality of the BSC, all the components that make up the Model are reflected in the set of elements, their interrelationships, characteristics and are presented in the form of a structural and functional model of the BSC. The model demonstrates the transparency of causal relationships between perspectives, includes vertically checking the diversity of BSC goals and related indicators, checking the number and types of indicators for horizontal development prospects. The priority of management decisions is determined by the method of filling in the matrices of contradictions and corresponds to the indicators [9].
Liojo —
1ll l12 ■■■ hNX hl l22 ■■■ l2NX
'■NXl lNX2 ■■■ InXNX
where Lix - a set of causal connections, liXiX shows the relationship between the goals of the BSC:
+ 1, if there is a connection hojo = ®>if there io = jo, □
-1, if there is no connection
—
Selection of management decisions
When implementing a strategy, it is necessary to determine a set of BSC indicators and study the presence or absence of such configurations in a set of typical cases. When similar circumstances are found, it is accepted.
Вектор Сумматоры Класс
Picture 1 - Kohonen's nervous system for modeling an enterprise development strategy based
on a balanced scorecard
Conclusion
Cochin's research has shown the effectiveness of creating HRC variants based on self-learning neural network tools. The validity of the proposed method was verified by comparing the strategic maps of the agro-industrial complex, obtained as a result of the application of the proposed algorithm, and similar maps developed by a group of experts. In addition, most of the indicators of the HRC, the formation of a strategic map of the goals of the chosen strategy, coincided with the assessments of experts on many indicators of this strategy. The technique allows you to set a variety of indicators and factors of influence, take into account their interrelation, simultaneous processing of information in several nodes-neurons; are able to independently learn, optimize the architecture and regulate communications, and therefore make the most optimal management decisions when implementing the enterprise development strategy. Literature:
1. Sakhautdinova E.R. Mathematical model for choosing a strategy for the development of an organization according to many criteria // Open education. No. 4. 2010. P. 118-123.
2. Trifonov Yu.V. Modified concept of building business performance management systems // Bulletin of NNSU im. N.I. Lobachevsky.No. 3 (1). 2013.S. 289-292.
3. Implementation of a balanced system of indicators / Horvath & Partners: Per. with him. - 2nd ed. Moscow: Alpina Business Books, 2006.478 p. - (Series "Management Models of Leading Corporations").
4. Shesterikova N.V. Balanced Scorecard as a Method of Effective Enterprise Management // Vestnik NNSU im. N.I. Lobachevsky. Series Economics and Finance. 2006. No. 2 (9). S. 613-616.
5. Technology for the development and implementation of the BSC. - [Electronic resource]. Access mode: http://www.businesstudio.ru/wiki/docu.php/ru/bsc/tehnology (date of access: 05/14/2014).
© Tyjen ^.E., 2021
