Methodology of Financial Monitoring Based on Cluster Analysis for the Implementation of National Projects in the Russian Regions

Nadezhda Yashina; Oksana Kashina; Sergey Yashin; Natalia Pronchatova-Rubtsova

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND ENGINEERING ECONOMICS 3, 2023

Research article

DOI: https://doi.org/10.48554/SDEE.2023.3.2

Methodology of Financial Monitoring Based on Cluster Analysis for the

Implementation of National Projects in the Russian Regions

Nadezhda Yashina* , Oksana Kashina , Sergey Yashin , Natalia Pronchatova-Rubtsova

Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod, Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation

*

Corresponding author: [email protected]

Abstract

T

he need to take into account imbalances among regional indicators in the development of state

policy for financing national projects makes it necessary to develop a methodology that will enable

objective assessment of the effectiveness of socially significant projects in Russia. This paper

reports the development of a methodology for financial monitoring of national project implementations

in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, taking into account the correlation of their target

indicators and using cluster analysis and methods in mathematical statistics. The proposed methodology

was tested on health and demography national project data obtained from the Federal Treasury of Russia,

the Federal State Statistics Service and the Accounts Chamber for 2020–2021. The analysis of public

funding for national projects based on centralization indices and target indicators for their implementation

enabled classifying the regions of Russia according to the levels of effectiveness and the financial risks

of implementing the projects. The results of the study correspond to the actual effectiveness of national

projects and can be used in the development of flexible state policy in financing national projects, taking

into account the level of the target indicators achieved.

Keywords: national project, target indicators, cluster analysis, financial monitoring

Citation: Yashina, N., Kashina, O., Yashin, S., Pronchatova-Rubtsova, N., 2023. Methodology of Financial

Monitoring Based on Cluster Analysis for the Implementation of National Projects in the Russian Regions.

Sustainable Development and Engineering Economics 3, 2. https://doi.org/10.48554/SDEE.2023.3.2

This work is licensed under a CC BY-NC 4.0

Petersburg Polytechnic University

22 Enterprises and sustainable development of regions

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND ENGINEERING ECONOMICS 3, 2023

Научная статья

УДК 332.1

DOI: https://doi.org/10.48554/SDEE.2023.3.2

Методика Финансового Мониторинга Реализации Национальных Проектов в

Российских Регионах с Использованием Кластерного Анализа

Надежда Яшина* , Оксана Кашина , Сергей Яшин , Наталия Прончатова-Рубцова

Нижегородский государственный университет им. Н.И. Лобачевского, Нижний Новгород, Российская

Федерация

*

Автор, ответственный за переписку: [email protected]

Аннотация

Н

еобходимость учета процессов сбалансированности, диспропорций и поляризации

показателей регионов при разработке государственной политики финансирования

национальных проектов как залога успешного достижения стратегических целей и задач

государства обуславливает потребность развития методического инструментария, позволяющего

объективно оценить результативность социально-значимых проектов в российских регионах.

Статья посвящена разработке методики финансового мониторинга реализации национальных

проектов в субъектах Российской Федерации с учетом взаимосвязи их целевых показателей с

использованием кластерного анализа, а также методов математической статистики. Апробация

предложенной методики была проведена на основе данных Федерального казначейства России,

Федеральной службы государственной статистики и Счетной палаты за 2020–2021 гг. на

примере национальных проектов «Здравоохранение» и «Демография». Анализ государственных

ассигнований на национальные проекты в регионах России на основе индексов централизации

и установочных целевых индикаторов выполнения национальных проектов дает основание

классифицировать регионы России по уровням эффективности и финансовых рисков реализации

данных проектов. Результаты исследования полностью сопоставимы с фактическими

показателями исполнения национальных проектов и могут быть использованы при формирования

гибкой государственной политики финансирования национальных проектов с учетом уровня

достижения целевых показателей.

Ключевые слова: национальный проект, целевые индикаторы, кластерный анализ, финансовый

мониторинг

Цитирование: Яшина, Н., Кашина, О., Яшин, С., Прончатова-Рубцова, Н., 2023. Методика Финансового

Мониторинга Реализации Национальных Проектов в Российских Регионах с Использованием Кластерно-

го Анализа. Sustainable Development and Engineering Economics 3, 2. https://doi.org/10.48554/SDEE.2023.3.2

Эта работа распространяется под лицензией CC BY-NC 4.0

политехнический университет Петра Великого

Предприятия и устойчивое развитие регионов 23

Methodology of Financial Monitoring Based on Cluster Analysis for the Implementation of National Projects in the Russian Regions

1. Introduction

Increased external challenges and threats have slowed the growth of Russia’s gross domestic prod-

uct as a basic source of financial resources, which is affecting standards of living and birth rates in the

country. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 204, dated July 21, 2020, “On the Nation-

al Development Goals of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030”,1 defined national targets for

the development of the country. The primary task of the state is to guarantee the well-being and health

of the citizens. President Putin V.V. noted that there is a “difficult situation” in Russia in the field of de-

mography and that it is necessary to ensure increases in both the birth rate and life expectancy.

To achieve the strategic goals and objectives of the state, tools are needed to assess the effective-

ness of national projects in the Russian regions (Fattakhov et al., 2019). The need for these tools is also

due to imbalances in the indicators of the regions, which should be taken into account in the development

of state policy for financing national projects. Among the top-priority national projects responsible for

economic growth and human capital development are those directed to health and demography. National

healthcare and demography projects are important strategic tasks in modern Russia, the implementation

of which will ensure development of the main components in the growth of human capital: longevity and

high-quality medical care for the population. The achievement of these objectives should be considered

taking into account their mutual correlation. Cluster analysis which has been tested in numerous studies

(Revnyakov, 2017; Pushkarev, 2018; Piskun and Khokhlov, 2019) can be conducted to solve these prob-

lems. In this regard, the current authors propose a methodology for financial monitoring of national proj-

ect implementations in Russian regions based on cluster analysis, which will make it possible to classify

the regions according to the level of potential threats to the implementation of national healthcare and

demography projects, monitor changes in achieving project targets, coordinate management activities at

all levels, and allocate financial resources in a timely manner.

2. Literature review

A characteristic feature of the Russian economy is the imbalance in the socio-economic develop-

ment of its regions due to their geographical location and the availability of natural and other resources

(Yashina et al., 2022(a); Yashina et al., 2022(b); Yudintsevand Troshkina, 2023). To assess local regional

disparities, multidimensional classifications, as well as methods of factor cluster and discriminant analy-

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sis are widely used (Piskun and Khokhlov, 2019). The problem of regional disparities makes it necessary

to improve the system for monitoring national projects and government programmes in order to increase

the effectiveness of their implementation in the regions of the Russian Federation (Ezangina and Gro-

myshova, 2020). The need to improve the management of the socio-economic systems of regions has

been highlighted in numerous works (e.g. Bogovizetal, 2019; Romanovaetal, 2019; Chebyshev, 2021).

In addition to the divergence and convergence of the development of the regions and the country as a

whole, Ezangina and Gromyshova (2020) pointed out the lack of methodological support for the current

state strategic planning system, as well as the lack of transparent and accessible information to improve

this system, as key reasons for the imbalance in the level of regional socio-economic situations. These

issues were also discussed by Endovitsky et al. (2021) and Mishlanova (2022).

As mentioned earlier, an important national state task is to ensure sustainable positive indicators

in the fields of health and demography in the Russian regions, taking into account their uneven develop-

ment and risks (Averinetal, 2018; Ariste and Matteo, 2017; Kozlova et al., 2017). However, these indica-

tors should be considered taking into account the relationships between them (Gallardo-Albarrán, 2018;

Sharma, 2018; Mihalache, 2019). In particular, funding for healthcare, as one of the key instruments

of state policy, largely determines the quality of medical care provided (Shahetal., 2021; Soofi et al.,

2021). High-quality care contributes to a lower mortality rate in the country and a more favourable de-

mographic situation (Balkhi et al., 2021; Wirayuda and Chan, 2021). Ivankova et al. (2022) assessed the

relationship between funding for healthcare, mortality, and gross domestic product in OECD countries

1

Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 204 Dated July 21, 2020 “On the national development goals of the Russian Federation for the period until 2030”: official

internet portal of legal information. URL: http://publication.pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/0001202007210012

24 Sustain. Dev. Eng. Econ. 2023, 3, 2. https://doi.org/10.48554/SDEE.2023.3.2

Yashina, N., Kashina, O., Yashin, S., Pronchatova-Rubtsova, N.

for the period 1994–2016. The study was conducted by the authors taking into account types of health-

care systems. The working-age population was the object of the study. The authors found that countries

with high healthcare funding had lower mortality rates and higher gross domestic products compared

to countries with an insurance-based healthcare system (Bismarck system). In this regard, it is obvious

that the risks of not meeting the targets of national projects in the fields of health and demography are

mutually reinforcing.

The authors of a number of publications have applied cluster analysis as a tool for assessing the

effectiveness of various regional strategies, including in the field of innovation (Khayrullina, 2014;

Revnyakov, 2017; Pushkarev, 2018). Cluster analysis allows us to identify objects in numerous classi-

fication features using many variables. Piskun and Khokhlov (2019) confirmed the hypothesis that any

region can be described by a set of interrelated variables that reflect its socio-economic situation over

the analysed time interval. Despite a large number of scientific publications devoted to various aspects of

regional development, insufficient attention has been paid to financial monitoring of the national projects

implemented in the Russian regions that would take into account the relationships between their indica-

tors based on cluster analysis. The issue of expanding the set of criteria for evaluating the effectiveness

of national projects needs further development and justification.

3. Materials and methods

Our methodology for financial monitoring of the implementation of national projects in the Rus-

sian regions using cluster analysis of government subsidies for national projects and criteria for their

effectiveness contains several stages.

The first stage includes the development of a database of the target indicators of national projects

based on information from the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation and the Federal State

Statistics Service. The methodology for assessing the effectiveness of public financing for the imple-

mentation of national projects is based on the analysis of two systems of indicators: indicators of public

funding and indicators for setting target indicators for national projects. The methodology was tested on

health and demography national projects.

The system of public funding itself includes two indicators: budget execution in the context of

the analysed national projects: % (FDH 1); and budget execution in the context of the analysed national

projects per inhabitant, in rubles (FDH 2).

The system of target indicators of the analysed national projects includes the values presented in

Table 1.

Table 1. Target indicators for the implementation of health and demography national projects

Health national project Symbol Demography national project Symbol

Mortality of the working-age population, per 100,000 people of ICH 1 Life expectancy of citizens at the age of 55, ICD 1

the population of the corresponding age years

Mortality from diseases of the circulatory system, per 100,000 ICH 2 Healthy life expectancy, years ICD 2

population

Mortality from neoplasms, including malignant ones, per ICH 3 Mortality of the population older than work- ICD 3

100,000 population ing age per 100,000 people of the popula-

tion of the corresponding age

Infant mortality, the number of children who die before the age ICH 4 Total fertility rate, number of children per ICD 4

of 1 year, per 1000 live births woman

Number (share) of citizens leading a healthy ICD 5

lifestyle, %

Employment rate of women with pre- ICD 6

school-aged children

Further, in relation to the system of indicators, the criteria for the centralization of public funding

and target indicators for the implementation of the analysed national projects in the Russian regions were

Sustain. Dev. Eng. Econ. 2023, 3, 2. https://doi.org/10.48554/SDEE.2023.3.2 25

Methodology of Financial Monitoring Based on Cluster Analysis for the Implementation of National Projects in the Russian Regions

determined:

1. Level of centralization ( LCij ), representing the share of public funding and the concentration of

the set targets of national projects by region (1);

2. Index of centralization ( ICij ), defined as the sum of the squared levels of centralization for

each region of Russia (2) by analogy with the Herfindahl–Hirschman index. However, the centralization

index has a different interpretation and is adapted to a specific task, which is to determine the degree of

concentration of public financial resources and to achieve the specified target indicators of national proj-

ects in a given territory. The centralization index is calculated for each indicator included in the system,

that is, the indices are determined for each indicator in the system of public funding and target indicators

for the implementation of national projects (formulas 1, 2):

Pj

LCij = , (1)

∑ j Pj

N

where Pj is the value of the i-th indicator in the system of indicators of budget appropriations or

the system of target indicators of the national project implementation in the j-th region.

2

 P

M

M 

IC ∑IC ∑  N  , (2)

2 j

= =

ij ij

 

∑j j

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=i 1 =i 1 P



where ICij is the level of centralization of the i-th indicator in the j-th region.

The centralization index ( ICij ) ranges from 0 to 1 (formula 3); the greater the value of this indica-

tor, the higher the concentration of budget allocations and the level of achievement of target indicators

for the implementation of national projects in a particular region.

0 < ICij ≤ 1. (3)

The third stage of the development of our methodology for monitoring national projects involves

ranking for each index of centralization of public finance; the higher the rank, the lower the level of effec-

tiveness of indicators for each analysed national project. The ranking is carried out by the centralization

indices of financing, both in the context of national projects, %, and per one inhabitant (in rubles), etc.

The final rank of the public funding is determined on the basis of the total rank. The final total rank

serves as a criterion for determining the levels (9 levels) of potential risks of the national project imple-

mentation in the system of indicators that characterize public funding. The value of the final total rank

(FDH) decreases with the level of financial risks of the national project implementation and vice versa.

At the fourth stage, the ranking is carried out for each centralization index in the system of the

target indicators set for the implementation of the national project, in particular, for health national proj-

ects – ICH 1, ICH 2, ICH 3, ICH 4; and for demography national projects – ICD 1, ICD 2, ICD 3, ICD

4, ICD 5, ICD 6.

A lower index of centralization for ICH 1, ICH 2, ICH 3, or ICH 4 (health national projects) or ICD

3 (demography national projects) indicates a lower rank for the target indicator. For the other indicators

ICD 1, ICD 2, ICD 4, ICD 5, and ICD 6 (demography national projects), on the contrary, the centraliza-

tion index decreases as the rank for the target indicator increases.

The final rank for all the target indicators for national project implementations is determined on the

basis of the total rank (FTR), which serves as a criterion for determining the effectiveness of the imple-

mentation of a national project; the lower the value of the final total rank (FTR), the fewer the threats to

26 Sustain. Dev. Eng. Econ. 2023, 3, 2. https://doi.org/10.48554/SDEE.2023.3.2

Yashina, N., Kashina, O., Yashin, S., Pronchatova-Rubtsova, N.

the implementation and vice versa.

The final values in the system of public funding and target indicators for the implementation of a

national project are the criteria for clustering regions according to the level of effectiveness and financial

risks of the national project (Figure 1).

3 FTR 1 cluster 4 cluster 6 cluster

Target indicators

2 FTR 7 cluster 2 cluster 5 cluster

1 FTR 9 cluster 8 cluster 3 cluster

1 FDH 2 FDH 3 FDH

Level of funding

Figure 1. Effectiveness matrix for national project implementations in the Russian regions based on a

comparison of the level of public funding and achievement in the specified target values of the projects

The fifth stage consists in interpreting the obtained monitoring results based on the clustering of

regions by public funding level and target indicators for the implementation of national projects (Table

2). For region clustering, a non-overlapping algorithm was used, according to which each region was

to be included in only one cluster. The key requirement for clustering optimization was to minimize the

standard error of partitioning. The cluster centre was defined using the centralization indices, which were

discussed above.

Table 2. Characteristics of clusters of national project implementations in the Russian regions

Cluster name Correlation between level of Correlation of level of effectiveness and potential

funding and target indicators financial risks of health and demography national

project implementations

1 cluster 1 FDH – 3 FTR low effectiveness / low risk

2 cluster 2 FDH – 2 FTR balanced level of effectiveness and risks

3 cluster 3 FDH – 1 FTR high effectiveness / high risk

4 cluster 2 FDH – 3 FTR low effectiveness / moderate risk

5 cluster 3 FDH – 2 FTR moderate effectiveness / high risk

6 cluster 3 FDH – 3 FTR extremely low effectiveness / highest risk

7 cluster 1 FDH – 2 FTR medium effectiveness / low risk

8 cluster 2 FDH – 1 FTR high effectiveness / medium level of risk

9 cluster 1 FDH – 1 FTR highest effectiveness / low risk

Region clustering will allow us to identify and study in detail possible local factors that contribute

to problems in public funding and the implementation of national projects in the health and demography

fields. In addition, the results will contribute to the development of a national strategy and of tactics

adapted to a specific region in order to achieve the target values of national projects.

Sustain. Dev. Eng. Econ. 2023, 3, 2. https://doi.org/10.48554/SDEE.2023.3.2 27

Methodology of Financial Monitoring Based on Cluster Analysis for the Implementation of National Projects in the Russian Regions

4. Results

The methodology was tested on the database of the Federal Treasury of Russia, the Federal State

Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, and the Accounts Chamber for 2020–2021. The analysis of

the implementation of healthcare and demography national projects based on the centralization indices

of public funding and target indicators enables us to classify the regions of Russia according to poten-

tial threats to the implementation of these projects. Potential threats to national projects are the risks of

failure to achieve the expected socio-economic effects and financial risks caused by the impacts of both

external and internal economic factors. The results of clustering Russian regions in accordance with the

proposed methodology for financial monitoring of national projects are presented in Table 3.

Table 3. Clusters of Russian regions according to level of effectiveness and risk in implementing na-

tional projects related to demography and healthcare

Subject of the Russian Federa- National Project Fund- Class of specified target Cluster

tion ing Class (FDH) indicators (FTR)

Magadan region 1 FDH 3 FTR cluster 1

Altai Republic 1 FDH 3 FTR cluster 1

Ryazan Oblast 1 FDH 3 FTR cluster 1

Chukotka Autonomous Okrug 1 FDH 3 FTR cluster 1

Kaluga region 2 FDH 2 FTR cluster 2

Republic of Buryatia 2 FDH 2 FTR cluster 2

Khanty-Mansi Autonomous

Okrug 2 FDH 2 FTR cluster 2

Sevastopol 3 FDH 1 FTR cluster 3

Kabardino-Balkar Republic 3 FDH 1 FTR cluster 3

Republic of Ingushetia 3 FDH 1 FTR cluster 3

Republic of Tatarstan (Tatarstan) 3 FDH 1 FTR cluster 3

Tyumen region 3 FDH 1 FTR cluster 3

Chechen Republic 3 FDH 1 FTR cluster 3

Chuvash Republic-Chuvashia 3 FDH 1 FTR cluster 3

Amur region 2 FDH 3 FTR cluster 4

Arhangelsk region 2 FDH 3 FTR cluster 4

Vologda region 2 FDH 3 FTR cluster 4

Voronezh region 2 FDH 3 FTR cluster 4

Jewish Autonomous Region 2 FDH 3 FTR cluster 4

Novosibirsk region 2 FDH 3 FTR cluster 4

Primorsky Krai 2 FDH 3 FTR cluster 4

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Republic of Kalmykia 2 FDH 3 FTR cluster 4

Republic of Karelia 2 FDH 3 FTR cluster 4

Komi Republic 2 FDH 3 FTR cluster 4

Republic of Khakassia 2 FDH 3 FTR cluster 4

Tambov region 2 FDH 3 FTR cluster 4

Tver region 2 FDH 3 FTR cluster 4

Tomsk region 2 FDH 3 FTR cluster 4

Tula region 2 FDH 3 FTR cluster 4

28 Sustain. Dev. Eng. Econ. 2023, 3, 2. https://doi.org/10.48554/SDEE.2023.3.2

Yashina, N., Kashina, O., Yashin, S., Pronchatova-Rubtsova, N.

St. Petersburg 3 FDH 2 FTR cluster 5

Krasnodar region 3 FDH 2 FTR cluster 5

Moscow region 3 FDH 2 FTR cluster 5

Murmansk region 3 FDH 2 FTR cluster 5

Penza region 3 FDH 2 FTR cluster 5

Perm region 3 FDH 2 FTR cluster 5

Republic of Adygea (Adygea) 3 FDH 2 FTR cluster 5

Republic of Dagestan 3 FDH 2 FTR cluster 5

Republic of Crimea 3 FDH 2 FTR cluster 5

Mari El Republic 3 FDH 2 FTR cluster 5

Rostov region 3 FDH 2 FTR cluster 5

Udmurt republic 3 FDH 2 FTR cluster 5

Altai region 3 FDH 3 FTR cluster 6

Astrakhan region 3 FDH 3 FTR cluster 6

Belgorod region 3 FDH 3 FTR cluster 6

Bryansk region 3 FDH 3 FTR cluster 6

Vladimir region 3 FDH 3 FTR cluster 6

Volgograd region 3 FDH 3 FTR cluster 6

Transbaikal region 3 FDH 3 FTR cluster 6

Ivanovo region 3 FDH 3 FTR cluster 6

Irkutsk region 3 FDH 3 FTR cluster 6

Karachay-Cherkess Republic 3 FDH 3 FTR cluster 6

Kemerovo region 3 FDH 3 FTR cluster 6

Kirov region 3 FDH 3 FTR cluster 6

Kostroma region 3 FDH 3 FTR cluster 6

Krasnoyarsk region 3 FDH 3 FTR cluster 6

Kurgan region 3 FDH 3 FTR cluster 6

Kursk region 3 FDH 3 FTR cluster 6

Leningrad region 3 FDH 3 FTR cluster 6

Lipetsk region 3 FDH 3 FTR cluster 6

Nizhny Novgorod region 3 FDH 3 FTR cluster 6

Novgorod region 3 FDH 3 FTR cluster 6

Omsk region 3 FDH 3 FTR cluster 6

Orenburg region 3 FDH 3 FTR cluster 6

Oryol region 3 FDH 3 FTR cluster 6

Pskov region 3 FDH 3 FTR cluster 6

Republic of Bashkortostan 3FDH 3 FTR cluster 6

Samara region 3 FDH 3 FTR cluster 6

Saratov region 3 FDH 3 FTR cluster 6

Sverdlovsk region 3 FDH 3 FTR cluster 6

Smolensk region 3 FDH 3 FTR cluster 6

Stavropol region 3 FDH 3 FTR cluster 6

Ulyanovsk region 3 FDH 3 FTR cluster 6

Sustain. Dev. Eng. Econ. 2023, 3, 2. https://doi.org/10.48554/SDEE.2023.3.2 29

Methodology of Financial Monitoring Based on Cluster Analysis for the Implementation of National Projects in the Russian Regions

Khabarovsk region 3 FDH 3 FTR cluster 6

Chelyabinsk region 3 FDH 3 FTR cluster 6

Yaroslavl region 3 FDH 3 FTR cluster 6

Kamchatka Krai 1 FDH 2 FTR cluster 7

Nenets Autonomous Okrug 1 FDH 2 FTR cluster 7

Republic of Mordovia 1 FDH 2 FTR cluster 7

Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) 1 FDH 2 FTR cluster 7

Sakhalin region 1 FDH 2 FTR cluster 7

Kaliningrad region 2 FDH 1 FTR cluster 8

Republic of North Ossetia-Alania 2 FDH 1 FTR cluster 8

Moscow 1 FDH 1 FTR cluster 9

Tyva Republic 1 FDH 1 FTR cluster 9

Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous

Okrug 1 FDH 1 FTR cluster 9

A detailed analysis of the obtained data confirmed a close correlation between the results of re-

gional clustering based on the proposed method of financial monitoring and information on the achieve-

ment of the target indicators of the national projects under study – healthcare and demography. For ex-

ample, the Nizhny Novgorod region fell into the 6th cluster, which is characterized by an extremely low

level of effectiveness and the highest level of financial risk in the implementation of national projects

in the fields. Information from the Electronic Budget system2 and the Chamber of Control Accounts of

the Nizhny Novgorod region3 was used as a database for the established indicators of national project

implementation. According to official data on total public funding of all projects, 3.4% of funds were

allocated for the implementation of the healthcare national project and 20.2% of funds were allocated

for the demography project. According to information published by the Nizhny the Chamber of Control

Accounts of the Nizhny Novgorod region, the percentage of deviations from the target values for the

demography project was 27.3% and for the healthcare project 39.0%. According to the Federal State

Statistics Service, the Nizhny Novgorod region ranked 60th in terms of birth rate and 65th in terms of

mortality rate among the regions of the Russian Federation in 2021, while decreases in birth rate and life

expectancy and increases in mortality rate and morbidity were recorded. In accordance with the method-

ology for calculating the Federal State Statistics Service, the highest rank (place) is assigned to regions

with the most critical values of indicators (the higher the rank, the worse the socio-economic indicators).

Thus, the negative trends in the fields of healthcare and demography confirm the low effectiveness of

national project implementations in the Nizhny Novgorod region, justifying its place in the 6th cluster.

5. Discussion

The results of the study confirm the applicability of cluster analysis to assessing the effectiveness

of national projects, based on the correspondence of public funding volume with national project tar-

get value achievement, which has been discussed in a number of research works (Khayrullina, 2014;

Revnyakov, 2017; Pushkarev, 2018). However, it was proved that the amount of public funding for

national projects is not a determining factor in the success of their implementation, which was also not-

ed in the work of Ezangina and Gromyshova (2020). For example, among the regions with the largest

amount of funding, only three (Moscow, Tyva Republic, Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug) fell into

the 9th cluster, which is characterized by the highest level of effectiveness and low financial risk. At the

same time, the Republic of North Ossetia-Alania is characterized by a high level of effectiveness in the

implementation of national projects, with a moderate financial risk despite the relatively low volume of

public funding.

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It is obvious that the financial monitoring of national projects should be carried out taking into

2

Unified portal of the budget system of the Russian Federation “Electronic budget”. https://budget.gov.ru/Регионы

3

Chamber of Control and Accounts: official website. https://ksp.r52.ru/

30 Sustain. Dev. Eng. Econ. 2023, 3, 2. https://doi.org/10.48554/SDEE.2023.3.2

Yashina, N., Kashina, O., Yashin, S., Pronchatova-Rubtsova, N.

account the relationships and interdependence of the results achieved (Balkhi et al., 2021; Wirayuda and

Chan, 2021; Ivankova et al., 2022); therefore, the proposed methodology can be improved by expanding

the set of national project indicators and developing models based on them.

6. Conclusion

The study confirmed the importance of improving financial monitoring as an element of state con-

trol over the implementation of national projects in the Russian regions.

The hypothesis was proved that the risks of not achieving the targets of national projects in the

fields of health and demography reinforce each other. The problems in achieving target indicators for

healthcare and demographic national projects implementation in the Russian regions are caused by the

following factors:

- lack of one-time support for the births of fourth, fifth, and subsequent children;

- lack of in vitro fertilization cycles for families with infertility;

- low employment level for women with children of preschool age;

- lack of access to preschool education for children aged 1.5 to 3 years;

- insufficient coverage of citizens older than working age with preventive examinations, including

clinical examinations;

- lack of geriatric centres and geriatric departments;

- high mortality rate of women aged 16–54 and men aged 16–59 years;

- insufficiency of public funding to meet national goals in the fields of health and demography in

regions with insufficient own financial resources; and

- shortage of personnel to meet national goals in the fields of health and demography.

The correlation of the results of the study with the actual implementation of national projects

confirms the effectiveness of the proposed methodology for their financial monitoring based on cluster

analysis. The data obtained in the course of monitoring can be used by state authorities to develop a flex-

ible strategy for national project funding in the Russian regions, taking into account the level of target

indicator achievement.

Acknowledgement

The study was carried out within the framework of the realization of the Strategic Academic Lead-

ership Programme “Priority 2030”, project Н-426-99_2022–2023 “Socio-economic models and technol-

ogies for creative human capital development in the innovative society”

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Список источников

Ariste, R., Di Matteo, L., 2017. Value for money: an evaluation of health funding in Canada. Int. J. Health Econ. Manag. 17, 289–310.

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10754-016-9204-6

Averin, G., Zviagintseva, A., Konstantinov, I., Shvetsova, A., 2018. Method and criteria for assessing the sustainable development. J. Soc.

Sci. Res. 1, 106–112. https://doi.org/doi.org/10.32861/jssr.spi1.106.112

Balkhi, B., Alshayban, D., Alotaibi, N., 2021. Impact of healthcare funding on healthcare outcomes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

region: a cross-country comparison, 1995–2015. Front. Public Health 8, 624–962. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2020.624962