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5METHODOLOGICAL TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS IN MODELING THE MANAGEMENT OF THE ORGANIZATION'S FOREIGN TRADE ACTIVITY EFFICIENCY UNDER CONDITIONS OF ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY
Abstract
The article outlines the directions of the methodology development for analyzing the foreign trade activity of the organization in the system of managing its effectiveness. The author proposes an analysis toolkit focused on the solution of a certain task consisting in making the optimal management decision under conditions of economic uncertainty.
Keywords
probabilistic model, foreign trade activity, criterion, uncertainty, Markov process, methodology, fuzzy set, analysis system, management, economic and mathematical modeling, effectiveness
AUTHOR
Olga V. Martyanova
Candidate of Economic Sciences, Moscow E-mail: 1263m@mail.ru
Introduction
Maintaining foreign trade activities (hereinafter referred to as "FTA") in conditions of uncertainty forces organizations to abandon the unambiguous estimates based on bipolar perception of foreign trade and to use multifactorial, multi-criteria analysis systems that allow to investigate the effectiveness of this type of activity. This situation is due to the vagueness of foreign trade processes, the vagueness of formulating foreign trade contracts, which are not of a probabilistic nature. Many difficulties arise due to the small amount of data, which does not allow us to apply the theory of probability. The implementation of export-import operations involves making optimal management decisions, which requires the definition of the border that makes it possible to appropriately qualify each of the available alternatives. In practice, it is difficult to find this border, because it is vague, depending on many factors, both external and internal.
At present, foreign trade participants do not have a system for analyzing the effectiveness of FTA, methodological tools for its evaluation, which leads to untimely reorganization of foreign trade operations due to changes in the conditions of operation on the world market, the lack of budget adjustments estimates in the management of FTA effectiveness. This creates a scientific problem, consisting, on the one hand, in resolving the contradictions between the organizations needs in modern methods of managing FTA effectiveness and inadequate methodological apparatus, on the other.
Formulation of the problem
The main purpose of the system for analyzing the effectiveness of FTA is to develop a methodological tool for evaluating the FTA in the management of this type of organization's activity effectiveness, the methods of analyzing export-import operations in order to make optimal management decisions. On the basis of the foregoing, we believe
that the purposes of the research aimed at studying the system for analyzing FTA and managing its effectiveness should consist in:
- identifying the main directions for improving the strategic management of the organization's FTA effectiveness, based on an analysis of the trends in the development of scientific approaches to the evaluation of this type of activity, the features of its analysis, conditioned by political, legal and economic factors;
- establishing methodological approaches to the evaluation of FTA effectiveness, focused on the foreign trade strategy of an economic entity;
- developing methodological tools for strategic management of FTA effectiveness and models for the forecast analysis of FTA, which characterize its effectiveness in the midterm.
To achieve these purposes, it is necessary to solve the following tasks:
- development of theoretical ideas on the FTA effectiveness strategic management based on the methodological provisions of economic analysis theory;
- development of a system for analyzing FTA effectiveness based on modern approaches to the study of the foreign trade strategy of an economic entity, taking into account the features of its functioning and organizational structure;
- determination of methodological approaches to the evaluation of FTA in the management of its efficiency on the basis of the organization's foreign trade strategy;
- development of recommendations on the development of methodology for analyzing the organization's FTA as a method of establishing information and analytical support for forecasting the effectiveness of this type of activity for an economic entity in conditions of uncertainty;
- development of a model for evaluating the effectiveness of the organization's FTA in the system of economic analysis.
Approaches to solving the problem
The solution of the set tasks is aimed at the development of theoretical, methodological provisions that represent a comprehensive systemic solution to the scientific problem associated with the further development of both theory and methodology for analyzing the organization's FTA in managing its effectiveness. Improvement of the system for analyzing FTA effectiveness will help to develop new methodological provisions and methodological approaches to researching this type of activity, to present FTA effectiveness indicators, formed on the basis of forecast procedures. Specification of the methodology for analyzing and evaluating FTA effectiveness will help to ensure the synthesis of various kinds of information in the accounting and analytical system, to develop a systematic approach to the establishment of forecast estimates, including those of a strategic nature.
The conditions for the maintaining of the organization's FTA influence the choice of the analysis methods of and their adaptation to reality. Since the choice of the method characterizes the methods of approach to the study of the FTA effectiveness analysis subject, the organization needs to develop a sequence of the selected methods application. Since the concept of an integrated approach to the evaluation of FTA efficiency is the most promising at the present stage of foreign trade development, then the methodology for carrying it out as a system of methods, techniques and technical means meets these conditions. Those provisions, which, in our opinion, determine the directions, stages of research, evaluation criteria are formed in its structure.
An essential feature of the system for analyzing FTA effectiveness is the analysis methodology, which is one of the most important components. We believe that the methodology of FTA analysis should be understood as a system of scientifically based
methods, techniques and procedures aimed at solving problems identified by the subject of the analysis. In this case, the subject is a task that requires a solution in the process of research, based on the results of which, according to corresponding volume of special knowledge, using methods and technical means at the organization's disposal, the economic entity makes an optimal management decision. Hence, the methodology is characterized by a system of methods applied in a certain sequence, which depends both on the questions posed for its resolution and also on the conditions for conducting the research. The conditions, in this case, mean both the state of the foreign trade environment and also the events leading to the registration of occurred facts of economic life by the FTA participant or to ascertainment of their changes leading to the diversification of the organization's foreign trade goods delivery.
Analysis of the foreign trade economic conditions allowed us to state that the domestic organizations of the beer industry maintain FTA against a background of beer production volume falling in Russia from year to year. So, in 2017 beer production in Russia decreased by 2.4% compared to 2016, to 744 million deciliters. Only in December 2017 beer production decreased by 2.9% compared to December 2016 and by 0.2% compared to November 2017. In previous years beer production also decreased: in 2015 - by 5.2%, in 2014 - by 7.4%. The slump in the industry has been observed since 2011 (RF: Production of beer fell by 2.4% last year (2018, January 27)). With this state of the industry, FTA is the kind of activity that ensures the survival of the organization under uncertainty conditions and it is an important reserve of economic growth.
However, the growth of protectionism, the erection of trade barriers does not allow domestic beer industry organizations to strengthen their positions in world trade. Analysis of trends in Russian beer imports, according to the data shown in Figure 1, shows that the growth rate of beer imports in value terms in 2016 was 56.4%, and in 2015 50.3% compared to 2012, respectively, whereas in 2014, the drop in the growth rate of beer imports was by 11.3%, and in 2013 only by 6.4% compared to 2012. The study of beer exports dynamics demonstrates a drop in the growth rates of beer exports from Russia in value terms by 16.7%, in 2015 by 29.4%, and in 2014 by 13.1% compared to 2012.
FIGURE 1 - TRENDS IN RUSSIAN BEER EXPORTS AND IMPORTS Source: (Federal Customs Service of Russia, 2018)
According to the Federal Customs Service, the import of malt beer to the Russian Federation in 2017 increased by 54% compared to 2016, making up 8% of the total volume of alcohol import into Russia in 2017. Import of malt beer in 2017 increased by physical volumes also - by 50%. The main countries-suppliers of beer were Germany, Czech Republic, Belarus and Belgium. Germany holds a leading position both in value terms - 33% and in physical terms - 29%. At the same time, despite the prolonged decline in sales, in 2017, Germany has increased its beer shipments by almost 2 times. The Czech Republic and Belarus increased physical volumes of malt beer export by 1.5 times, and Belgium by 1.3 times (RF: Import of beer increased by 50% last year (2018, February 18)).
The analysis shows that the negative dynamics of FTA, which takes place in beer industry, requires some changes in methodology for analyzing this type of activity and determines the need to use economic and mathematical modeling to forecast the effectiveness of export-import operations. However, to solve specific tasks that are included in the subject of analysis, it is necessary to take into account the specificity of the object under study, the nature of the information used. Dependence of the analysis methodology on the subject and object of research indicates their interrelation. Therefore, the content of the analysis methodology, in our opinion, should be regarded as an essential feature of each type of foreign economic activity analysis.
Results
The results obtained in the course of FTA study, in our opinion, depend in many ways on the methods used, since the methodology for making an analysis of the organization's FTA is focused not only on the study of its object, but on the solution of a specific problem, which determines its specificity for each kind of analysis, including the analysis of FTA
effectiveness, due to the nature of the objects being studied and the problems that need to be solved.
When examining FTA, it is possible to single out general methods that generalize the experience of solving typical problems, applied without any change, and private ones that presuppose a method for solving a particular problem. If the standard methodologies ensure uniformity and consistency in the analysis of all objects, the private methodologies resulting from the modification and additions to the general methodology are based on the laws of economic science, the specific features of definite foreign trade operations knowledge, and are manifested in theoretical generalizations, in the principles of this science on the one hand, and in applied research methods on the other hand.
Since the methodology for FTA analysis is determined by knowledge of the general methodological approaches to it, modeling of foreign trade operations structure, evaluation of interim results, making conclusions and formulation of recommendations, we consider it expedient to single out five stages in the methodology for analyzing FTA effectiveness, including preparatory, analytical, forecast, comparative and final ones. The passage of all stages in a strict sequence makes it possible to analyze all the factors affecting export-import operations effectiveness and, on the basis of their evaluation, to choose the optimal management solution.
As the preparatory phase presumes looking through the information that is available for the analysis by a participant of FTA, the preferred method of investigation is monitoring.
The analytical stage involves identifying and studying the objects of analysis in order to determine the factors of the external as well as the internal environment that affect organization's FTA effectiveness. Since the object of analysis may have a large number of features, properties, which complicates the research process, a comprehensive analysis, including factorial and comparative, will provide an opportunity to determine all the qualitative characteristics of the analyzed features. Having enough information about the object of research, the organization, using a set of general scientific and specific methods, determining the significance of the signs, their possible distortions, chooses the amount of data that is necessary for further research.
At the forecast stage, the conditions for FTA maintaining are simulated, and the characteristics of the investigated object are forecasted. We believe that probabilistic modeling expands the scope of analysis, forms new conditions for the organization functioning in the field of foreign trade, which requires study. Forecasting provides an opportunity to conduct a comparative study.
The comparative stage is an important stage of the study, because it allows to establish the degree of difference in the forecasted data from the actual results by means of the deviation analysis. Within the framework of this stage, specific methods of research are used.
The final stage is connected with making a decision based on the choice of the optimal alternative from all available. The organization analyzes, in accordance with the selected criteria, all the revealed features of the investigated objects of analysis, determines the degree of their individuality. Application of logical, abstract thinking makes it possible to formulate the recommendations for the organization on FTA effectiveness management under conditions of risk and uncertainty.
We believe that the stages identified in the methodology for analyzing FTA effectiveness will not cause problems when they are implemented in practice by organizations operating in the field of foreign trade, with the exception of the forecast phase. Therefore, the foregoing allows us to recommend, for the sake of practical expediency, a methodological tool to conduct a study of organization's FTA effectiveness for settling the issues raised for consideration at this stage and which can be detailed in
accordance with the subject and the object of the analysis. In the example below, it is justified that during analyzing FTA efficiency, it is possible to operate with fuzzy sets in those cases when an economic entity refuses accuracy requirements.
Discussion
At the present stage, foreign trade participants make a budget for FTA maintaining and one of the tasks, that the organizations have to solve, is to determine the optimal balance between the financial budget of FTA and the budget of the specific foreign trade contract, so that the organization's functioning in the sphere of foreign trade would be effective. Since the budget data is determined approximately, then there is uncertainty, which, in our opinion, makes it possible to reduce the problem to determining the fuzzy eigenvector z of the structural matrix v corresponding to its own value equal to 1. At the same time, the elements vij of the fuzzy matrix of organization's FTA budget V = (vi;-),
where i = 1 , = 1, fc, are fuzzy numbers characterizing the share of FTA budget used by the i-th subdivision of an economic entity to implement the j-th foreign trade contract.
In a formalized form, the problem of searching for the parameters of an eigenvector can be represented, according to the opinion of G.S. Osipov. (Osipov, 2017), as follows:
(n,/):/(z) = II -z|| ^ min,
n = {ze0+:lf=1zi=Z} (1)
Let us give practical justification for this statement. Let the organization have formed the structural matrix of FTA using fuzzy triangular numbers of the following type
1 /(8,1 1,4 4,0) (6,7 2,6 2,4) (3,6 2,0 8,4) \ V = —((2,4 7,1 6,2) (4,3 3,4 3,0) (7,2 5,8 5,7)) 12\(1,3 4,9 7,0) (5,8 6,5 1,0) (3,8 3,1 6,8)/
A particular solution of the problem under consideration, with the budgetary restriction of Z = (7; 19; 29), established by the organization, will be a solution that looks like:
/za /3,11 3,14 9,76 z = ( ¿2 ) = ( 2,22 8,45 10,65 \z3J \1,67 7,41 8,59
that is explained by the search for the solution for numbers v; ,
determining the coordinates of triangular numbers vertices forming the structure of the organization's FTA matrix. As a result, all the components of the eigenvector, which is the solution to the problem, are fuzzy numbers.
It should be noted that this problem can also be solved by Gauss method. Having carried out operations with a system of fuzzy homogeneous linear equations, the solution will have the form:
/zcA /3,18 2,98 9,57 zG = ( zG2 ) = ( 2,38 8,51 10,54 \zgJ \1,69 7,52 8,43
To compare the obtained results, we determine the width of each fuzzy number (W) according to the following expression (Osipov, 2017)
W(C) = ¡1(cR(fi) - cL(fi))f(fi)dfi, (2)
where cR(fi); cL(fi) - right and left boundary of the interval p - level of the fuzzy number,
£f(fi)dp = 1
According to formula (2) we have:
/3,33\ /3,20\
W(z) = (4,21), W(zG) = ( 4,08 ).
Since the obtained values of the fuzzy numbers width do not allow us to judge of their coincidence degree unmistakably, we calculate Minkowski distance between two fuzzy numbers, which is determined with the help of the following equation (Osipov, 2017):
dM(XY) = (f1((\yR(P) - xR(fl)\)f + (\yL(P) - xL(P)\)f)dp) 'f при f>1 (3)
When f = 3, Minkowski distance between the fuzzy numbers, according to formula (3), is
/0,096\ dM(z,zG) = ( 0,087 ), 0,080
which indicates the possibility of applying the proposed approach when determining the optimal balance between the financial budget of FTA and the budget of a specific foreign trade contract so that the functioning of the organization in the sphere of foreign trade would be effective, since the linear matrix model of organization's FTA using fuzzy numbers allows to obtain results close to the values obtained when solving a system of homogeneous linear algebraic equations with triangular numbers, which is a very laborious procedure.
Conclusion
Against the background of the domestic beer market fall, which, apart from purely economic reasons (the decrease of households incomes, the increase of compulsory expenses cost, including pay for utilities), is due to other factors on which it depends whether the market starts to revive. Among them, in our opinion, is the price wars factor, which the market participants fight not only among themselves, but also with the linear retail. The situation in the sphere of foreign trade is such that a larger volume is easier to sell at the expense of lowering the price, and not at the expense of improving the quality of the product or an innovative proposal. We believe that such a price dumping will not stop until the consumer's income begins to grow.
In such conditions, the problem of forecasting prices for their products becomes topical for organizations maintaining FTA, an instrument for the solution of which, in our opinion, is economic and mathematical modeling. In the example below, the practical implementation of the proposed approach is presented (Martyanova, 2016). As the information base for the calculations, the data was used disclosed in the management reporting of the maintaining FTA manufacturing organization, which should assess the feasibility of concluding a contract for the supply of beer for export at a price of 5.1 euros per liter, whereas according to the information obtained during the study of premium beer
market, the market price of one liter of beer in the analyzed segment may range from 4.6 euros to 12.4 euros.
As a system S, let us consider premium beer in the volume of one liter and estimate those of its states that are characterized by the market price of beer within the following limits:
s1 - from 4,6 euros to 6,9 euros;
s2- from 6,9 euros to 8,7 euros;
s3 - from 8,7 euros to 10,1 euros;
s4- from10,1 euros to 12,4 euros.
The market price of one liter of beer in this segment essentially depends only on its current price at given time. A change in the price of a commodity in the market can occur at any random time as a result of random effects of the market. Transitions of the system S from state to state occur with probability densities that do not vary with time, the values of which are indicated in the matrix (4)
/0 2 1 4\ / 3 0 5 1 \
5 = U 0 5 3} (4)
\4 2 2 0/
Proceeding from the primary data, there is a discrete homogeneous Markov process with continuous time in the system S. Hence, the streams of events causing the transition of the system S from one state to another are simple ones. The marked state graph is shown in Figure 2.
FIGURE 2 - THE STATES GRAPH OF THE INVESTIGATED SYSTEM
The analysis of the graph shows that system S can transit from any state to any other state in a finite number of steps, that is, it is ergodic. In the work (Labsker, 2014) it is proved that if the number of system S states is finite, system S is ergodic and all the events that cause the transition of system S from one state to the other are the simple, then there are final states probabilities (p_i), defined as
Pi = lim pi(t), i = 1,...,n (5)
t^+ro
where pt(t) - state probability s_i of system S in a time moment t.
To determine the final probabilities, it is expedient to use Kolmogorov's system of differential equations, having the form (Labsker, 2014)
^ = -(ll]=1Aij)pi(t)+Z]=1*ijPj(tl i = 1.....n; t>0. (6)
If we go to the limit with t ^ in equation (6), then it is transformed into a system of homogeneous algebraic linear equations relative to n of unknown quantities pt, i = l, ...,n of the following type (Labsker, 2014)
+ Z%i*tjPj = 0, i = 1.....n (7)
since the probability of a continuous random variable pt(t) with t ^ tends to a constant value pt, and the derivative of a constant quantity is zero.
On the basis of the foregoing, we form a system of equations
c-lpx + 3p2 + 6p3 + 4p4 = 0; 2pi - 9p2 +Ps + 2p4 = 0;
Pi + 5P2 - 10p3 + 2p4 = 0; ()
, 4p± + P2 + 3p3 - Qp4 = 0.
Making transformations of the system of equations (8), we obtain
r-7p1 + 3p2 + 6p3 + 4p4 = 0;
P4 = -3pi + 9p2;
Pi = -4P2 + 10P3 - V4-;
I P2 = -2pi - 5P3 + 9P4
or
'-6pi + 4P2 + 5P3 = 0;
P2 = 0,6P4';
P3 = 0,63p4;
\Pi = 1,3P4.
Consequently, the general solution of the system (8), depending on one arbitrary parameter p4 E [0,1], is the vector
(pi = 1,3p4; P2 = 0,6p4; P3 = 0,63p4; P4).
Replacing the first equation by the normalizing condition, we obtain a system that allows us to find one of the whole set of particular solutions that satisfies the required conditions:
fVi + P2 + P3 + P4 = 0;
P2 = 0,6P4';
P3 = 0,63p4;
\Pi = 1,3p4.
whence
ipi = 0,36;
P2 = 0,17;
' P3 = 0,19;
{p4 = 0,28.
Thanks to the calculations, it becomes possible to form a forecast for the market price of beer in the premium segment, which tells that after a sufficient period of time, the price for one liter of premium beer is likely to be in the range from 4.6 euros to 6.9 euros, therefore an economic entity can conclude an export contract for the supply of premium beer at price of 5.1 euros, taking a minimum level of risk.
Recommendations
Systematization of the analysis results allows us to draw the following conclusions.
Having substantiated the system of FTA analysis as one of the ways to manage its effectiveness, we justify the position about the significance of FTA study in revealing the factors hindering the increase in the efficiency of the organization operating in the sphere of foreign trade. Solving the tasks set in the work, it is justified that the methodology is an obligatory component of the system for analyzing fTa effectiveness of an economic entity, which should not only ensure the reliability and completeness of these analyzes, but also the preliminary and subsequent diagnostics of the economic life facts of the organization maintaining FTA. The results obtained indicate that the multiplicity of analysis objects is a specific feature of FTA research.
Revealing the organizational and methodological approaches to the analysis of FTA effectiveness, the research tool was substantiated and justified in the work. This approach is justified, since in the analysis of organization's FTA effectiveness, the method is a tool for solving the problems posed for its consideration. The results of the conducted research made it possible to trace the sequence of the information base formation in determining FTA effectiveness, which served as the basis for identifying the control points of the study. This approach is advisable, since each selected control point has its own information array.
It is justified in the work that from the system approach positions, based on the content of the questions posed, in the analysis of FTA, the organization should be able to evaluate the information resulting from uncertain concepts. This requirement should be observed, since in the process of conducting FTA effectiveness research, it may become necessary to ask additional questions for handling uncertainty and inaccuracy in the analysis of foreign trade operations.
It is proved in the study that the content of analysis subject determines the choice and sequence of methods. The work substantiates the conclusion that the choice of analysis method for FTA effectiveness investigation is fundamental, and the sequence of procedures depends on the subject and object of analysis. The obtained results allowed to formulate the requirements for the analysis methodology, including FTA, since its content is an essential feature of each type of research. This allowed us to substantiate the essence and content of the methodological tools for analyzing the effectiveness of organization's FTA, maintained under uncertainty conditions.
REFERENCES
Federal Customs Service of Russia, 2018. Customs statistics of foreign trade. URL: http://stat.customs.ru/apex/f?p=201:7:2181504009600909::N0
Labsker, L.G. (2014). Probabilistic modeling in the financial and economic field: Textbook. (2nd ed.). Moscow, INFRA-M.
Martyanova, O.V. (201 6). Model for assessing the influence of price risks in conditions of uncertainty on the effectiveness of foreign trade business operations using hedging and Markov processes. Audit and financial analysis, 4 (113-126).
Osipov, G.S. (2017). The simplest method for solving the fuzzy linear exchange problem. Theory and practice of modern scientific knowledge. Problems. Forecasts. Solutions: a collection of scientific articles on the results of an international scientific and practical conference (pp. 18-21). St. Petersburg, Russia: Publishing house "KultlnformPress".
RF: The import of beer last year increased by 50% (2018, February 18). E-malt.ru, an information resource for specialists of the beer and malt industry. Received February 19, 2018, from the URL: http://e-malt.ru/News.asp?Command=ArticleShow&ArticleID=5080
RF: The production of beer decreased by 2.4% last year (2018, January 27). E-malt.ru, an information resource for specialists of the beer and malt industry. Received January 28, 2018, from the URL: http://e-malt.ru/News.asp?Command=ArticleShow&ArticleID=5017
STUDY OF VIBROACOUSTIC TIBETAN MASSAGE EFFECTIVENESS TO REDUCE ANXIETY LEVEL
Abstract
The use of vibroacoustic Tibetan massage to reduce anxiety symptoms (according to the Spielberger test and Tsung's self-evaluation scale) in 33 investigated patients was positively effective immediately after one session (p <0.05).
Keywords
vibroacoustic massage, Tibetan singing bowls, psychological rehabilitation, psychocorrection, prevention, anxiety symptoms, reactive anxiety
AUTHORS
Victor O. Oguy
«Exercise therapy» and «Massage» courses teacher, LTD «Clinic of Aesthetic Medicine», Nizhny Novgorod 31A, Timiryazev str., Nizhny Novgorod, 603022, Russia E-mail: doktornn@yandex.ru
Elena N. Svirshch
The expert on improving massage, "Siberian Singing Bowls Centre", country-house museum "Tomskaya Pisanitsa",
Kemerovo region, 650000, Russia E-mail: viktorogui@gmail.com
Anna A. Tarasenko
The expert on improving massage, "Siberian Singing Bowls Centre", country-house museum "Tomskaya Pisanitsa",
Kemerovo region, 650000, Russia E-mail: anettmodi@mail.ru
