CC BY
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UDC [УДК] 656.078
DOI 10.17816/transsyst201843s113-20
© G. V. Igolkin
Emperor Alexander I St. Petersburg State Transport University (St. Petersburg, Russia)
METHODOLOGICAL BASE FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE MAGNETIC LEVITATION TRANSPORT TECHNOLOGY PROJECT IN RUSSIA
Aim: determine the methodological basis for forecasting social economic effect from implementation of major infrastructure projects in world practice. To compile an individual list of evaluation criteria based on recent research about technical capabilities of magnetic levitational transport technology (MLTT) transport.
Methods: statistical methods of transport industry analysis and interbranch balance method are applied.
Results: the potential market for application of technology has been identified and a forecast for changing transport industry matrix has been made.
Conclusion: this article is the basis for conducting a comprehensive study of the social-economic response of the MLTT project implementation in Russia and determination of optimal parameters for public-private partnership during its realization.
Key-words: magnetic levitation, maglev, social economic effect, interbranch balance method, BIG DATA
© Г. В. Иголкин
Петербургский Государственный университет Путей Сообщения (Санкт-Петербург, Россия)
МЕТОДОЛОГИЧЕСКАЯ БАЗА ОБОСНОВАНИЯ РЕАЛИЗАЦИИ ПРОЕКТА МАГНИТОЛЕВИТАЦИОННОЙ ТРАНСПОРТНОЙ
ТЕХНОЛОГИИ В РОССИИ
Цель: определить методологическую базу обоснования и прогнозирования социально-экономических эффектов от реализации крупных инфраструктурных проектов в мировой практике. На основании свежих исследований о технических возможностях транспорта на основе магнитолевитационной транспортной технологии (МЛТТ) составить индивидуальный ряд критериев оценки.
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Методы: в работе применены статистические методы анализа транспортной отрасли, метод межотраслевого баланса.
Результаты: определён потенциальный рынок применения технологии и сделан прогноз изменения матрицы транспортной отрасли.
Выводы: работа является базисом для проведения комплексного исследования социально-экономического отклика на реализацию проекта МЛТТ в России и определения оптимальных параметров государственно частного партнерства при реализации данного проекта.
Ключевые слова: магнитная левитация, маглев, социально-экономический эффект, межотраслевой баланс, BIG DATA
Magnetic levitation transport technology (MLTT) has a huge potential for introduction into the transport complex of the largest world's countries (area above 3 million km2), in which the improvement of transport mobility will significantly accelerate the processes of value creation. At the same time, high-speed magnetic-levitation transport systems, in contrast to the conventional "wheel-rail" technology, are suitable not only for passenger transportation, but also for freight. Such flexibility of the MLTT is due to this number of reasons:
1. Reduction of the dynamic component on high speeds. A detailed study of these aspects was carried out in [1, 2]. The resonance factor of MLTT train is determined to be 1.07; for high-speed trains this value is 3-4 [3, 4];
2. More controlled level of acceleration. The movement of MLTT trains is based on the high-frequency calculations of microcontrollers, thanks to which a more comfortable level of acceleration is achieved. This characteristic is important both for passengers and freight transportation;
3. Full automation of processes - it will lead to higher productivity of sort facilities.
ANALISYS OF METODOLOGICAL APPROACHES
The determination of social economic effects from the construction of a road network based on MLTT is a fundamentally new task that combines a combination of previously proposed solutions:
1. Construction of high-speed passenger railways [5, 6];
2. Correlation of the redistribution of passenger traffic between airports and high-speed railways [7-9];
3. Methodology for designing a multimodal transport network [10-11].
INTRODUCTION
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4. The construction of road networks is an integral driver of region's development. But there is no universal method for estimating the effect from the construction of new routes. The exact answer to the questions about what feedback on the new transport network will come from different industries, private business, real estate market and integral growth of GDP is impossible. Any forecasting in this area has evaluation nature. And reports dedicated to estimating of social economic effects from new infrastructure objects use a combination of methods:
1. Interbranch balance method (inputs-outputs);
2. Evaluation of agglomeration effects;
3. Evaluation of reduced travel times between the concentration centers of consumers and the suppliers of products effects;
4. Effects on the budget: increase of the tax base; reduction of costs for the implementation of obsolete infrastructure.
Examples of the most relevant studies are the assessment of the social and economic effects of High Speed 2 in the UK, the modernization of the Chicago transport system until 2020, and the maritime logistics center in Portland, USA.
The construction of the Moscow-Kazan High speed railway (HSR) and analysis of project HSR «Eurasian» have demanded conducting similar researches in Russia. These developments were carried out by PwC and the Center of Strategic Development (CSD). The results of published reports are not equal and more detailed algorithm of calculating are not given [12, 13].
At the same time, the reason for the high correlation of the results is absence of extensive statistical bases for the industrial branches and regional social economic indicators that researchers can operate on. The data published by Russian Federal State Statistics Service is very general and, in fact, obsolete by the time of release, so it can't be a basis of local infrastructure solutions which determinate of the overall development vector.
Nowadays when all spheres of life includes BIG DATA, implementation of large infrastructure projects requires a comprehensive automated analysis of current data bases. The demands of local directions should be correlated with each other. And on the basis of its conflicts, a set of optimal strategies should be allocated. The scheme of the methodological basis for making decision is shown in the Fig. 1.
Identifying of demands of individual enterprises and consumers, optimizing the transport connection between them is an actual task all over the world. Currently, there is a stable trend of introducing BIG DATA analysis in this direction. In the
FORMULATION OF MODERN WAY OF INFRUSTRUCTURE DATA BASE ANALYSIS
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Data of business activity of the region:
1. Location of existingand planned
new industrial enterprises 2. Volumes of producing main types of industrial products 3. Volumes of consumption of raw materials and fuel 4. List of the mainsources of minerals (reserves, degrees of use) 5. The capacity of existing and planned power stations (their need for fuel] 6. Data from the agricultural sector
Data of transport routes:
1. Segmentation oftransport directions 2. Goods tonne-kilometre by mode of transport 3. Carrying capacity 4. Mobility of ^repopulation 5. Density oftransport routes 6. Current traffic intensity of directions
Construction arrays of key economic regions's subjects: A[Na][Ma], B[Nb][Mb], C[Nc][Mc],...
Calculating Pareto optimal solution based on transport factor
Fig. Modern methodological basis for making infrastructural decision
US, some of the solutions for optimizing the transport network are adopted using dynamic database analysis in the REMI, KTC, TREDIS software complexes [14].
FORECAST OF CHANGINGS IN RUSSIAN TRANSPORT INDUSTRY MATRIX AFTER MLTT INTRODUCTION
The economic justification for the construction of a route based on MLTT is a complex and responsible study. The major tasks of which are:
1. Determination of the optimal location of the network.
2. Determination of changings in transport industry matrix after MLTT implementation.
Taking into account the above-mentioned specificity MLTT, the decision about stages of network construction should be taken based on an expanded set of criteria mentioned in scheme above.
The second task is a consequence of the first. Analysis of data published by Russian Federal State Statistics Service [15] gives general summary of current Russian transport industry matrix - Table 1.
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Table 1. Matrix of Russian transport industry
Group 1 Group 2 Group 3
Types of transport Pipeline and railway Automobile Marine, river, air
Main characteristics Long distances of transportation of goods and large volumes of goods tonne-kilometre Small average distances and large tonnage The volume of freight transportation is much lower
Based on these statistics and general transport characteristics of MLTT, it is possible to draw conclusions about a number of potential areas of it's implementation. Creation of high-speed freight/passenger ground transport with the possibility of full automation of shipment process will significantly increase the average route speeds of transportation, which for today on railway transport are only 15 km/h.
The implementation of MLTT will lead to a multiple increase in the carrying capacity of new lines.
Therefore, with the wide introduction of the MLTT in the continental part, the following changes will occur in the system of freight transportation - Table 2.
Table 2. Changes in the freight transportation matrix after implementation of MLTT
Types of transport Summary characteristics of changes
Railway Transportation for long distances will disappear; Local industrial application
Marine & River Remain in demand transoceanic transport
Automobile Remain relevant for transportation to medium and small distances
Pipeline Never changers
Air Remain relevant routes to hard-to-reach areas
CONCLUSION
The 21st century for the Russian Federation is a century of territorial potential reveal through the implementation of large scale infrastructure projects. In the area of construction of extended transport networks, the profit received by the carrier from the direct transport services is much less than the incomes received by the state (the increase of GDP). Therefore, the construction of these facilities - should be carried out according to the public-private partnership
This article listed the main methodologies for assessing social economic effects from the construction of new infrastructure projects. Based on the technical
Received: 06.08.2018. Revised: 21.09.2018. Accepted: 17.11.2018. This article is available under license K-aeiWXHn
Transportation Systems and Technology. 2018;4(3 suppl. l):13-20 doi: 10.17816/transsyst201843sll3-20
characteristics of the magnetic lévitation transport, the main vectors of integration existing methods were formulated. The main components of the integrated assessment method are given. There was identifying the demand of expanding industries monitoring to improve the accuracy of solving forecasting infrastructure tasks and improving the efficiency of management decisions in transport Industry.
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Сведения об авторe:
Иголкин Георгий Владимирович, аспирант; ORCID: 0000-0001-5168-069X; E-mail: igolkin.georgii@gmail.com
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Information about the authors: Georgii V. Igolkin Post graduate student; ORCID: 0000-0001-5168-069X; E-mail: igolkin.georgii@gmail.com
Цитировать:
Иголкин Г.В. Методологическая база реализации проекта магнитолевитационной транспортной технологии в России // Транспортные системы и технологии. - 2018. -Т. 4. - № 3 прил. 1. - С. 13-20. doi: 10.17816/transsyst201843s113-20
To cite this article:
Igolkin GV. Methodological base for the implementation of the magnetic levitation transport technology project in Russia. Transportation Systems and Technology. 2018;4(3 suppl. 1):13-20. doi: 10.17816/transsyst201843s113-20
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