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1
U.D.C. 336.767.017.2
Adamov AA.
Senior lecturer in "Accounting and Auditing" Zhetysu State University name I.Zhansugurova
Kazakhstan, Taldykorgan METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES TO THE EVALUATION OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS IN THE CURRENT ECONOMIC SITUATION
KAZAKHSTAN
Annotation: the article made recommendations for improving the methodology for assessing the economic efficiency of investment projects, taking into account the specifics of the current economic situation in Kazakhstan, the use of which would give more objective results in the analysis of the project in terms of its economic performance.
Keywords: investment, valuation, inflation, efficiency
In the formation of the investment project is necessary to pay special attention to the environmental conditions in which it will be implemented. This is especially important for Kazakhstan at the present stage due to the vast territory and the uneven distribution of the numerous factors that influence the investment design.
In modern conditions of Kazakhstan's assessment of the macroeconomic situation in the framework of the formation and analysis of investment projects it is essential, since it is a determining factor in identifying the economic efficiency of the investment project generates expectations in the investment sphere. The essence of this evaluation is to analyze macroeconomic indicators and their relationships, determining the nominal and effective values.
The ratio of the rate of inflation with other macroeconomic indicators allows more fully present the investment attractiveness of a particular area of economic activity, to choose the most suitable criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of the project, to determine the structure of its economic performance.
The specifics of the current situation in Kazakhstan impose their restrictions on the use of standard methods of assessment in the form in which they are used in the West and in other countries with a developed market economy[1].
In this regard, we offer a number of recommendations to allow while maintaining methodological correctness and objectivity of the evaluation of investment projects take into account the particular conditions of implementation of Kazakhstan.
The general instability reliable forecast of the dynamics of the number of parallel processes - political, economic, financial, etc. (Also too dependent on each other), it is not conducive to an objective evaluation.
Nevertheless, the use of special methods of analysis of economic efficiency of investment is still required. In this part, the main problem is to ensure objectivity, both in the preparation of background information, and in its interpretation.
Our main recommendations for adaptation of standard methods for assessing the economic efficiency of investment projects in Kazakhstan, elaborated on the
basis of the study and practical application of modern tools of investment analysis are as follows:
1) The basic (initial) calculation for this calculation must be in constant prices. This recommendation is based on the recognition of the obvious fact to predict the development of the macroeconomic situation in Kazakhstan is very difficult. Set of working hypotheses can be put forward, and all of them should be taken into account and addressed. However, the only common starting point for all scenarios of inflation and other macro-economic processes should be the retention of the existing ratio of prices in the commodity market and the achieved level of interest rates in the capital market.
The main condition for the reliability assessment of the investment project -the possibility of checking the inputs used. This condition can be satisfied if you have all the background information used in the calculation of prices for all cost elements can be taken either by actual existing level, or at the closest analogues on the market of goods and services. Available standardized machine will allow this case to compare and analyze the draft prepared by experts has different views on the current situation and have unequal access to information[2].
All of the above in connection with the assessment of inflation concerns and trends in the development of legislative and regulatory framework in Kazakhstan. First of all it should be manifested in the rejection of attempts to predict the exact date of the revaluation of fixed assets of enterprises or the introduction of depreciation indexing mechanisms. Also admittedly difficult to forecast the minimum wage, the tax rate, the refinancing rate of the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
Finally, there is a "danger" to introduce new taxes or on the contrary, the establishment of new benefits for the existing taxes. Of course, these factors can have a significant impact on the results of the calculations - through tax amount of amortization and interest payments.
Calculation at constant prices or payment in monetary units of constant purchasing power at fixed rates of taxes and interest - the best compromise for the initial evaluation of investment projects in the context of the current situation in Kazakhstan. However, at the stage of a deep study of the investment project to minimize the impact of unpredictable factors possible to use methods that will be recommended below [3].
2) To perform the calculations at constant prices is necessary to determine the real cost of capital, measured as a rule, the size of the actual bank rate on the financial resources provided. It follows from the theory that the real interest rate is the difference between the nominal rate and the inflation rate, referred to the inflation index. You can also recommend various units of the parameters such as the rate of the "long" and "short" money, the refinancing rate of the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the yield of government securities to determine the rate comparison, the minimum rate of return and inflation index.
3) The calculations at current prices, of course, necessary for the analysis of risk associated with investments. In this context, the project should be investigated
resistance to probable changes in external factors. The number calculated in the process of scenario analysis can be unlimited. Also should be considered and the possible consequences of changes in the legislative environment.
4) For projects, offering the presence of a foreign investor, the calculation can be carried out in US dollars or any other freely convertible currency. It should be noted that the US dollar in Kazakhstan is not a monetary unit with the same purchasing power. Moreover, the purchasing power of the dollar in recent years continuously decreasing, that is, the dollar actually exposed to domestic inflation. Consequently, along with the calculation in constant dollars at the current price structure should be further considered and possible differences in the dynamics of internal and external prices.
Particular attention should be paid to the effect of inflation as one of the factors that must always be taken into account in the calculation of investment, even if the price growth low. Especially acute this problem for Kazakhstan. It should be noted that in assessing the economic efficiency of investment projects using standard methods assume that inflation has no or negligible influence on the project. At the same time, the current economic situation in Kazakhstan inflation significantly alter the profitability of certain projects, such as oriented to the domestic market, and is betting on exports of Kazakhstani enterprises [4].
In the scientific journal «Economic inquiry» foreign scientist economist Howard K. cites that the inflationary impact can not be ignored when analyzing and choosing investment projects. In practice, it is almost done, and if it is, then, based on the erroneous assumption that inflation is always equally increases the cost of revenues and costs, so the net profit from the project after adjusting for inflation rate will supposedly meet the net income at current prices . However, the inflationary rise in prices for various raw materials often is uneven. This is due to different levels of the enterprise demand elasticity consumed them raw materials, energy, services, on the one hand and consumer demand for finished products of the enterprise - from the other side.
Accounting for inflation in the framework of investment analysis requires:
-reflections inflationary investment recipient's expectations in terms of cash flows for the intended them to implement the project;
-Use discount rates. Take into account the inflation expectations of investors.
At the same time we must remember that providing funds, the investor specifies their income in the form of nominal rates, but the rates reflect its inflation expectations and, therefore, they are naturally closer to the real (effective) rate of return, but that the money market is focused. Therefore, assessment of the possibility to provide a rate of return should be conducted on the basis of the future cash flows of data at current prices, not correcting them through a basic price indices for the restoration of purchasing power unchanged. This is simply no need, as the yield levels required by investors already include a safety net for the loss of funds due to inflation, their purchasing power [5].
It follows that the most important thing in the development of an investment project in the context of high inflation - the right to take into account inflation in
forecasting cash flows. Underestimating their growth under the influence of rising prices make the project acceptable unfairly and revaluation may cause great difficulties in the future with the repayment obligations to investors. The only thing that can be done in this regard, the developer of the investment project - to try as much as possible to reliably estimate the impact of a possible inflation in the future for each type of cash flow [6].
Of course, the forecast inflation itself - it is extremely difficult and unreliable, because the price is determined by the dynamics of a huge number of different factors.
It is necessary to classify the elements of future cash flows according to their "responsiveness" on inflation.
Of course, in every project, this classification can develop in its own way, but it is nevertheless possible to point to some typical elements of cash flows with different reaction to inflation.
Thus, inflation is very little effect on the depreciation and, in any case, this effect is not a continuous discrete character, showing up only when the government takes a decision on the revaluation of fixed assets and changes in depreciation rates. Similarly, the impact of inflation appears very poorly on those elements of the resources that are purchased under long-term contacts with one way or another fixed-price or purchased in the forward market with fixing the price at the time of conclusion of the contract, rather than at the time of delivery.
There are elements of cash flows, which move in the general rate of inflation. This is primarily. The prices for the resources that are purchased in the usual way, as well as prices for finished products.
In order to conduct a scientifically based account inflation factors in the investment analysis it is mandatory to produce an inflationary adjustment of cash flows. Equally there, whether inflationary distortion different cash flows, in any case have previously separately adjust them to inflation. We emphasize in this regard that those margins are below the inflation rate is still at the primary stage of rejection of projects obviously unfit recognized. Also, the projects do not provide enterprise protection against inflation.
Thus, the net annual cash flow from the project (CF) is given by:
(R-C) x (1-T) + DT = R-C - RT-TC + DT + D-D = (R-C-D) x (1-T) + D
R - revenues from the project;
C - costs (excluding depreciation);
D - depreciation;
T - income tax rate.
The left side of the dynamics of the group (R-C) x (1-T) follows directly the dynamics of inflation, if the income and costs are rising at the same pace. But DT is not changed in the course of the inflation process, since the depreciation based on the acquisition price of the underlying assets and the tax rate is fixed.
Thus, inflation reduces the real (cleared of inflation) cash flow and profit rate of the project.
The sequence of work when calculating the actual cash flows of the investment project shall be as follows:
1) to calculate the nominal revenue streams and nominal cash flows of costs (and that, and another - in view of the inflationary rise in prices);
2) We calculate net cash flows;
3) net cash flows "reset" inflation factor and calculated the actual net cash
flows.
Estimation of economic efficiency of investment projects with the implementation of the above recommendations, helps to ensure first and foremost objective results. The second important point is to ensure the comparability of the projects prepared by various expert groups that may be particularly relevant for investment and financial institutions and organizations dealing with a large volume of work on the examination of the proposals [7].
The main feature imposes a deep typos on investment planning in the transition period, which is going through Kazakhstan, as mentioned above, is a structural crisis, causes a lack of stability of the economic, political and social environment in which the investment project will be carried out. This fact determines the requirements for the design of tooling investment, which must be presented at this stage.
In the scientific journal «Economic inquiry» in addition to the classic requirements to reliability of the source data of a standardized submission to the formation of the investment project, as well as the adequacy of the analytical methods we have. We offer to pay particular attention to the following aspects:
-Formation design options with different versions of source data, investment schemes, different values macroeconomic environmental indicators;
-estimates risk, allocation risk, taking into account indicators of the social and political, in - and external environment projects;
- compared projects and project versions with each other, taking into account not only the financial tons of economic indicators, but also aspects of the regional branch.
- prediction sensitive projects and projects of options to change the macroeconomic indicators, project selection criteria for the least sensitive to the most precarious indicators of risk factors;
- modeling process of the project with the ability to predict the impact of options to project changes in macroeconomic indicators;
-planning the project in the form of a coherent program of action for the investment phase;
-Ensure monitoring project progress with the development of optimal methods for further development in the current macroeconomic environment.
Based on these requirements, you need to create the tools of project analysis, the use of which will give adequate results in the formation and analysis of investment projects in modern conditions of Kazakhstan.
Used sources:
1. Sembekov E. On some issues of improving investment planning in Kazakhstan // Karzhy-Karazhat. - 2011. -№2. - S. 12-14.
2. G. Birman, S. Schmidt. Economic analiz investment projects. - M .: Banki and exchange, UNITY, 2008. - 344 p.
3. Buzova I.A., Mahovikova G.A. Commercial investment appraisal. -Peter, 2009. - 291s.
4. T. Astakhov. Methodical recommendations according to efficiency of investment projects. - Moskva: Ekonomika, 2010 - 156c.
5. Howard K. Regional investment policy // Economic inquiry. - 2012. -№2. 531-533r. Electronic resource. - http://wokinfo.com/
6. Kovalev V.V. Finansovy analiz. - Moscow: Finansy and statistika, 2008. - 259s.
7. Doszhanov T.N. ndustrial and investment policies in the long-term strategy of the country's economy // Tranzitnaya ekonomika. - 2012. - № 4. - S. 21-24.
Elistratov E. U. student of 2 course Faculty of Economics Supervisor: Sergina S. A. Omsk State University named after F. M. Dostoevsky
Russia, Omsk
INNOVATION MANAGER AND HIS POSITION IN THE COMPANY
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