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Б01 10.46320/2077-7639-2024-1-122-54-62
Исследование оценки финансовых рисков новых энергетических автомобилестроительных предприятий
Шэн Иннань, Ли Шуан, Хоменко Т.В.
В данном исследовании рассматривается оценка финансовых рисков предприятий по производству автомобилей на новых источниках энергии с акцентом на компанию Geely. В эпоху, характеризующуюся быстрыми изменениями, неопределенностью и жесткой конкуренцией, особенно в автомобильном секторе, важность эффективного организационного управления и анализа рисков при принятии управленческих решений приобрела первостепенное значение. Эти решения существенно влияют на экономические результаты и стабильность компаний. В частности, в статье рассматривается важнейшая роль управления финансовыми рисками в современных компаниях данного сектора.
В исследовании изложены теоретические аспекты управления финансовыми рисками, подчеркивается необходимость научного подхода при принятии решений. В работе признаются трудности, с которыми сталкиваются такие компании, как ОбсГу внедряя инновации в условиях порой враждебного окружения. Эти проблемы включают в себя высокие риски, значительные финансовые вложения и неопределенную отдачу от инноваций. Далее в исследовании рассматривается система управления рисками Geely, оценивается ее эффективность и предлагаются усовершенствования.
На основе глубокого анализа стратегий управления финансовыми рисками компании Geely в статье ставится задача разработать внутренний механизм управления финансовыми рисками и предлагаются меры по повышению его эффективности. Данное исследование вносит вклад в понимание взаимосвязи между инновациями, предпринимательством и финансовыми рисками в контексте автомобильной промышленности, особенно для предприятий, занимающихся производством автомобилей на новых источниках энергии.
ДЛЯ ЦИТИРОВАНИЯ ГОСТ 7.1-2003
Шэн Иннань, Ли Шуан, Хоменко Т.В. Исследование оценки финансовых рисков новых энергетических автомобилестроительных предприятий // Дискуссия. - 2024. - Вып. 122. - С. 54-62.
1_90, 1_91, 1_99
КЛЮЧЕВЫЕ СЛОВА
Управление финансовыми рисками, новые энергетические транспортные средства, Компания Geely, автомобильная промышленность, инновации.
Sheng Yingnan, Li Shuang, Khomenko T.v. Research on financial risk evaluation of new energy automobile manufacturing enterprises
DOI 10.46320/2077-7639-2024-1-122-54-62
Research on financial risk evaluation of new energy automobile manufacturing enterprises
Sheng Yingnan, Li Shuang, Khomenko T.V.
This study delves into the financial risk evaluation of new energy car manufacturing enterprises, focusing on the Geely Company. In an era marked by rapid changes, uncertainty, and fierce competition, especially in the automotive sector, the importance of effective organizational management and risk analysis in management decisions has become paramount. These decisions significantly influence economic outcomes and the stability of firms. Specifically, the paper addresses the crucial role of financial risk management within modern companies in this sector.
The research outlines the theoretical aspects of financial risk management, emphasizing the need for a scientific approach in decision-making. It acknowledges the challenges faced by firms, like Geely, in innovating within a sometimes hostile environment. These challenges include high risks, substantial financial investments, and uncertain returns on innovation. The study then explores Geely's risk management system, evaluating its effectiveness and proposing enhancements.
Through an in-depth analysis of Geely's financial risk management strategies, the paper aims to develop an internal mechanism for managing financial risks and suggests measures to enhance their effectiveness. This research contributes to the understanding of the relationship between innovation, entrepreneurship, and financial risk in the context of the automotive industry, particularly for enterprises engaged in new energy vehicle production.
FOR CITATION APA
Sheng Yingnan, Li Shuang, Khomenko T.V. Research on financial risk evaluation of new energy automobile manufacturing enterprises. Diskussiya [Discussion], 122, 54-62.
KEYWORDS
Financial Risk Management, new Energy Vehicles, Geely Company, automotive Industry, innovation.
JEL: L90, L91, L99
INTRODUCTION
As the global energy crisis and environmental problems intensify, new energy vehicles, as a clean, efficient and renewable means of transportation, have received more and more attention and support. However, new energy vehicle companies also face many risks and challenges in the development process. On the one hand, financial risks have an important
impact on the economic performance of enterprises. In today's increasingly complex and changing external and internal environment, the financial risks faced by enterprises may lead to the failure to achieve strategic goals and have a negative impact on profits. Therefore, financial risk management is a key element in the management process. On the other hand, new energy vehicle companies face difficulties such as high
risks and large financing needs. These companies must deal with the risks posed by changes in policy and market conditions, as well as the risks posed by introducing innovation into the production process [1], [2], [3]. In addition, it is more difficult for new entrants to gain consumer trust than traditional automakers. All these bring challenges to the risk management of new energy vehicle companies [ 2 ], [ 3 ].
In order to evaluate and manage the financial risks of new energy vehicle companies, this study conducted a literature review from two aspects: financial risk, risk management related theories and the current research status of new energy vehicle companies. First, it introduces the definition, types, and influencing factors of financial risks, as well as basic concepts and theories such as risk management objectives, methods, and international standards. Secondly, it analyzes the risks and challenges faced by new energy vehicle companies, as well as the research results and deficiencies of existing literature in terms of policy environment, technological innovation, business models, etc.
The main content of this study is to evaluate and manage Geely Auto's financial risks and propose corresponding countermeasures and suggestions. On the one hand, through a combination of financial indicator calculation and qualitative description, a comprehensive analysis of Geely Auto's financial risk situation was carried out, including multiple dimensions such as debt payment ability risk, operating ability risk, profitability risk and development ability risk, and the assessment improve the effectiveness of its financial risk management [4]. On the other hand, the internal risk management mechanism and efficiency improvement countermeasures were proposed, and the benefits were evaluated.
This study takes Geely Automobile as an example to study the financial risk assessment and management of new energy vehicle manufacturing companies, with a view to providing a basis for corporate risk management decisions.
The main method of this study is to use a combination of quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis. Quantitative analysis focuses on calculating and evaluating relevant financial indicators. This combination of quantitative and qualitative methods can make the research more three-dimensional and comprehensive [i], [2], [3], [4].
CONTENT
Geely Automobile is the case object of this study. Its development history and performance, as well as its new energy vehicle strategy, are closely related to the theme of this study. On the one hand, Geely
Automobile was founded in 1997 and has developed for more than 20 years. In recent years, Geely Automobile's sales and revenue have grown rapidly and it has become one of China's largest private automobile companies [5]. In 2022, Geely Automobile's operating revenue will reach 710.473 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 98.54% [ 5 ]. On the other hand, facing the opportunities of vehicle electrification and intelligent transformation, Geely Automobile is accelerating the strategic layout of new energy vehicles. On the one hand, Geely has reached strategic cooperation with domestic and foreign companies to jointly develop electric vehicles and intelligent connected vehicle technologies; on the other hand, Geely has also continuously enriched its new energy vehicle product line through independent research and development, mergers and acquisitions, and other methods.
GEELY FINANCIAL RISK ANALYSIS
Geely Automobile's risk management goal is to control the company's overall risk at an acceptable level by reducing the possibility of risk losses. To achieve this goal, Geely Automobile has established a systematic risk management system:
The risk management system is mainly based on relevant policies and procedures approved by the board of directors, such as risk and capital management strategies, risk management policies, etc.;
The company has a dedicated department responsible for coordinating risk management work, formulating methodologies, and carrying out targeted work to identify and minimize financial risks;
The main types of risks include credit risk, liquidity risk, market risk and operational risk. The occurrence of these risks will have a significant negative impact on the company's financial indicators such as asset-liability ratio, profitability indicators, etc.
Credit risk is mainly reduced through diversification, liquidity risk is mainly analyzed and evaluated by the Asset and Liability Management Committee, and market risk is mainly measured through the VaR method.
Debt Payability Risk Assessment
In order to assess Geely's debt payment ability risk, we analyzed Geely's liquidity from multiple dimensions (see Table 1):
1) The absolute current ratio is lower than the standard value of 20%, and was only 3.8% at the end of 2022, indicating that Geely can only rely on the most liquid assets to pay a small part of short-term liabilities, and its liquidity is poor;
2) Geely's current ratio (1.684) is also lower than the industry standard value of 2, indicating that there are problems with its short-term solvency;
Sheng Yingnan, Li Shuang, Khomenko T.v. Research on financial risk evaluation of new energy automobile manufacturing enterprises
Table 1
Geely solvency ratios
Indicator name Finally period To the beginning period Changes "+", "-"
GeneraL soLvency indicator, L1 0,867 0,827 0,040
AbsoLute Liquidity ratio, L2 0,038 0,091 -0,053
("CriticaL point" coefficient), L3 1,586 1,407 0, 180
Current ratio, L4 1,684 1,501 0, 183
Operating capitaL maneuverabiLity coefficient, L5 0, 143 0, 189 -0,046
Share of working capitaL in ass ets, L6 0,992 0,979 0,014
Security ratio, L7 0,401 0,316 0,085
Asset coverage ratio of LiabiLities, L8 1,682 1,493 0, 189
SoLvency restoration coefficient, L9 - 0,888 -
Loss of soLvency coefficient, L10 - 0,865 -
Note - Source: author's elaboration.
3) The operating capital operating efficiency ratio dropped from 0.189 to 0.143, which reduced the utilization efficiency of working capital and increased the risk of default;
4) The asset-liability ratio is as high as 1.466 (see Table 5), which means excessive reliance on external financing, which affects solvency to a certain extent.
To sum up, Geely's solvency and liquidity are weak and it relies heavily on external financing, which increases its default risk and debt payment risk. BUSINESS CAPABILITY RISK ASSESSMENT We evaluated the growth rate of Geely's operating income, operating costs and net profit (see Table 2) and analyzed the trend of its operating capabilities. From the table we find that the main problems
are:
1) In 2022, Geely's operating cost growth rate (205.4%) is higher than the operating income growth rate (198.54%), and its cost control ability is relatively
weak;
2) The growth rate of net profit (116.66%) is lower than that of revenue and costs, the operating leverage effect has been weakened, and the growth rate of net profit has slowed down;
3) Sales expenses increased significantly (growth rate 246.7%, see Table 2), affecting profit growth;
4) The turnover rate of operating funds is low, which also limits operating capabilities.
The above factors indicate that Geely's cost control ability has declined, profit growth has slowed, operating leverage has weakened, and operating capabilities are at risk.
PROFITABILITY RISK ASSESSMENT
We calculated Geely's profitability-related indicators (see Table 3).
Through the table 3, we found that 1. Sales profit margin dropped sharply, from 15.9% to 9.76%, and there was a problem with profitability; 2. Return on total assets dropped from 78.76% to 36.09%, and asset usage efficiency dropped; 3. Net asset income
Table 2
Dynamics of factors shaping Geely's financial results, million yuan
Index 2022 year 2021 year Change (+, -) growth rate, %
Revenue 710473 357855 352618 198,54
Cost price 499046 243272 255774 205,4
Gross profit (Loss) 211427 114583 96844 184,52
Business expenses 142086 57672 84414 246,7
Profit (Loss) from saLes 69341 56911 12430 121,84
Percentage to be paid 490 361 129 135,73
Other income 1834 144 1690 1273,61
other expenses 4542 108 4434 4205,6
Profit (Loss) before tax 66143 56586 9557 116,89
Net profit ( Loss ) of the reporting reporting period 52808 45267 7541 116,66
Note - Source: author's elaboration.
Table 3
Geely profitability ratios
Indicator name 2022 2021 Changes "+", "-"
Profitability of saLes voLume, % ,P1 9,76 15,90 -6, 14
Accounting profitability from ordinary activities, %, P2 9,31 15,81 -6,50
Net Profitability, %, P3 7,43 12,65 -5,22
Economic profitability (return on aLL assets), %, P4 36,09 78,76 -42,67
FinanciaL return (return on equity), %, P5 95,98 238,04 -142,06
Gross margin, %, P6 29,76 32,02 -2,26
ProfitabiLity of products soLd (cost - effectiveness), %, P7 10,82 18,91 -8, 10
Note - Source: author's elaboration.
The rate dropped from 238.04% to 95.98%, and the owner's return on investment declined.
Generally speaking, Geely's profitability indicators are generally declining, indicating that the company's profitability and profitability are declining, and it faces profitability risks.
DEVELOPMENT CAPABILITY RISK ASSESSMENT
Geely Automobile's development capabilities face multiple constraints, and the company's long-term sustainable growth and ability to withstand the impact of industry transformation are weak.
First of all, from the perspective of asset structure, the amount of Geely's non-current assets has decreased significantly. The table in the article shows that its total non-current assets dropped from 24.4 million yuan at the beginning of the period to 13.76 million yuan at the end, a decrease of as much as 43.6% (see Table 4). This means that Geely's continued insufficient investment in technical equipment, research and development, etc. makes it difficult to achieve product and service innovation and continuously bring new value to customers. Compared with its competitors, Geely's long-term
Table 4
General assessment of the structure of Geely assets and their sources, yuan million
Values
Indicator name On end of period At the beginning of the period Changes Correspondence signs "good baLance"
TotaL vaLue of the organization's assets - BaLance 177777 114864 62913 Yes
sheet currency
The cost of non-current (immobiLized) assets 1376 2440 -1064 No
(funds) or reaL estate
Cost of current (mobiLe) assets (funds) 176401 112424 63977 Yes
Cost of materiaL working capitaL 10065 6738 3327 Yes
The amount of the organization's equity capitaL 72099 37944 34155 Yes
Amount of borrowed capitaL 105678 76920 28758 No
The amount of own funds in circuLation 70723 35504 35219 Yes
Amount of current LiabiLities 104769 74899 29870 No
Working capitaL 71632 37525 34107 Yes
Share of equity capitaL in the totaL vaLue of assets 0,406 0,330 0,075 Yes
Equity growth rate 1,900 426,337 -424,437 -
Growth rate of borrowed capitaL 1,374 76920,0 -76918,626 -
Accounts receivabLe growth rate 1,646 1094,822 -1093,176 -
Accounts payabLe growth rate 1,518 64669,000 -6466,7.482 -
Current assets growth rate 1,569 1249,156 -1247,586 -
Growth rate of non-current assets 0,564 - - -
Share of own funds in turnover in current assets 0,.401 0,316 0,085 Yes
Retained earnings 72010 37855 34155 Yes
Sheng Yingnan, Li Shuang, Khomenko T.v. Research on financial risk evaluation of new energy automobile manufacturing enterprises
Table 5
Geely financial stability ratios
Indicator name Finally period To the beginning period Changes "+", "-""
CapitaLization ratio (Leverage), U1 1,466 2,027 -G,S61
Own capitaL in circuLation, U2 70723,0 35504,0 3S219,G
Inventory suppLy ratio from own sources, U3 7,027 5,269 1,757
Autonomy coefficient, independence (concentration of equity capitaL), U4 0,406 0,330 G,G7S
Funding ratio, U5 0,682 0,493 G, 189
FinanciaL stabiLity ratio, U6 0,411 0,348 G,G63
ManeuverabiLity coefficient, U7 0,981 0,936 G,G4S
ImmobiLization coefficient, U8 0,008 0,022 -G,G14
Note - Source: author's elaboration.
development potential is relatively insufficient. Considering that the new energy vehicle industry is in a period of rapid evolution, this lack of technological investment will inevitably affect the company's ability to respond to industry changes and restrict its ability to complete strategic transformation and achieve long-term growth.
Secondly, from the perspective of owner's equity ratio, Geely's indicator is only 40.6% (see Table 4), which means that more than half of the company's asset sources rely on external debt financing. This results in Geely needing to bear a heavier burden of financial expenses, and also means that its endogenous growth momentum and ability to withstand market risks are weak. Considering that the prospects of the new energy vehicle market are still uncertain, over-reliance on external financing makes Geely face greater development risks. In addition, a low proportion of owners' equity also means that the company has limited space for profit retention and capital accumulation, which also restricts the endogenous development potential of the company.
Finally, judging from indicators such as current ratio, Geely's solvency and operating efficiency are weak. For example, its absolute current ratio is far lower than the industry standard of 20% (only 3.8%, see Table 1); its asset-liability ratio is also as high as 1.466 (see Table 5). This means that Geely needs to repay a large amount of debt and pay heavy interest expenses, which undoubtedly takes up funds that could have been used to reinvest, conduct research and development, and promote strategic development. It can be said that the funds needed for Geely's development are being lost through various channels, and the company's ability to control these "bleeding points" is also weak, which to a certain extent restricts its possibility of completing strategic transformation and achieving long-term growth.
To sum up, Geely Automobile faces constraints on its development capabilities in multiple dimensions such as asset structure, owner's equity, and debt solvency, which restricts its ability to withstand market risks and achieve strategic development, and therefore faces greater development risks. Enterprises must take effective measures as soon as possible to improve their comprehensive strength, otherwise they will be at a disadvantage in the fierce industry competition, and their market position and performance prospects will be seriously affected.
OPTIMIZATION SUGGESTIONS
In view of the various financial risks and development constraints Geely Automobile faces, the article proposes a project to build a digital industrial park for Geely Automobile in Wuhan City, Hubei Province. The total investment in the project is estimated to be US$628.9 million (see Figure 1), of which self-owned funds account for 25.3%, and bank long-term preferential loans and other borrowing financing account for 74.7% (see Table 6). The project benefit assessment shows that the digital industrial park project has a long investment payback period and there are certain difficulties in investment returns (see Table 7). However, considering the important strategic significance of digital transformation and collaboration to the automotive industry, the project can bring important indirect benefits to Geely Automobile such as improving operational efficiency and accelerating technological innovation. Therefore, it is necessary for Geely Automobile to promote the implementation of the project.
Specifically, the construction of the digital industrial park will greatly improve Geely Automobile's collaboration efficiency in key aspects such as sales management and technology research and development. In terms of sales management, the park will bring together Geely Auto's upstream
Partners
Logistics Department
» Branch managers • Deputy tech. directors
Field service engineers / J
Technical Director
Receiving information about problems Decision-making, announcement of the order * Decision-making in cases where it is not possible to resolve the issue at the local level
Note - Source: author's elaboration
Figure 1. Scheme of information exchange of the technical director zone during vertical integration through digital technologies
and downstream partners to eliminate information gaps and ensure that all parties can obtain accurate market and customer data, thereby improving the efficiency of strategic planning and decision-making. In addition, the digital industrial park will also bring benefits such as comprehensive data sharing and the establishment of online communities, which will help Geely Automobile cultivate and maintain customer stickiness. In terms of technology research and development, digitalization and network platforms will also accelerate Geely Automobile's exchange of new technologies and industry-university-research cooperation, and improve the efficiency of research and development innovation.
Overall, the investment benefits of digital industrial parks are long-term and strategic. While helping enterprises complete digital transformation, this project also provides Geely Automobile with a major opportunity to connect to the Internet and realize service model changes. Therefore, despite the long investment payback period, Geely Automobile still has sufficient business reasons to continue to promote the implementation of the digital industrial park, considering the far-reaching impact the project can bring.
The information exchange diagram for the technical director zone during vertical integration through digital technologies is presented in Figure 1.
Table 6
Sources of financing for total investment costs
Indicator name Unit change Total for the project Share in total financing
I Own funds thousand USD 158,908.6 25.3%
AdditionaLLy attracted share capitaL thousand USD 150,000.0 23.9%
Funds from the project impLementation thousand USD 8,908.6 1.4%
II Borrowed and attracted funds thousand USD 470,000.0 74.7%
Long-term preferentiaL Loan Bank of the PeopLe's RepubLic of China for the construction of infrastructure of the starting stage thousand USD 170,000.0 27.0%
Long-term preferentiaL Loan Bank of the PeopLe's RepubLic of China for the construction of deveLopment stage infrastructure, housing construction, commerciaL reaL estate construction thousand USD 300,000.0 47.7%
TOTAL SOURCES OF FINANCING TOTAL INVESTMENT COSTS thousand USD 628,908.6 100.0%
Note - Source: author's elaboration.
Sheng Yingnan, li Shuang, Khomenko T.v. research on financial risk evaluation of new energy automobile manufacturing enterprises
Table 7
Key indicators of investment efficiency
Indicator name Unit change Meaning
Net present vaLue (NPV) thousand USD - 120,751.9
InternaL rate of return ( IRR ) % No
Profitability Index (PI) - 0.8
SimpLe project payback period years no on the horizon
Dynamic payback period of the project years no on the horizon
Note - Source: author's elaboration.
The main investment performance indicators made for Geely are shown in Table 7.
CONCLUSIONS
Through the combined quantitative and qualitative financial risk assessment of Geely Automobile, this study identified the main risks faced by the company, including liquidity risk, operational risk, profitability risk and development risk. These risks reflect Geely Automobile's problems in business decision-making and risk management. Specifically, the company's over-reliance on external financing has increased debt pressure, profitability has declined, and its development momentum is insufficient. All these indicate that the company's ability to withstand market changes and achieve strategic goals is weak.
In light of this, this study puts forward relevant recommendations for improving the internal risk management mechanism and enhancing efficiency. By introducing scientific risk identification, assessment, and reporting processes and improving data collection and risk early warning mechanisms, Geely Automobile can ensure that important risks
receive sufficient attention and responses. In addition, by building a digital industrial park and integrating upstream and downstream resources across the industry chain, the company can leapfrog traditional production constraints and greatly improve synergies in automobile manufacturing, sales and services. Although the digital industrial park project has a longer investment payback period, it is of great strategic significance in expediting the company's digital transformation.
Overall, an effective risk management system and digital transformation strategy are two key drivers for Geely Automobile to achieve long-term sustainable growth. With sustained investment in both, Geely Automobile can make breakthroughs in both technological cooperation and business model innovation. This will not only ensure the company's profitability and competitiveness are enhanced, but also boost the confidence of capital markets and the public towards the future prospects of Geely Automobile, injecting strong momentum into its long-term strategic development.
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Информация об авторах
Шэн Иннань, магистрант программы «Финансовый менеджмент» Белорусского государственного университета (г. Минск, Республика Беларусь).
Ли Шуан, магистрант программы «Финансовый менеджмент» Белорусского государственного университета (г. Минск, Республика Беларусь).
Хоменко Т.В., кандидат экономических наук, доцент кафедры экономической безопасности Белорусского государственного университета (г. Минск, Республика Беларусь).
13. Zhu L., Li M. and Metawa N. Financial risk evaluation Z-score model for intelligent IoT-based enterprises // Information Processing & Management. - 2021. - 58(6)..
Information about the authors
Sheng Yingnan, Master's student of the Financial Management program at the Belarusian State University (Minsk, Republic of Belarus).
Li Shuang, Master's student of the Financial Management program at the Belarusian State University (Minsk, Republic of Belarus).
Khomenko T.V., Ph.D. in Economics, Associate Professor of the Department of Economic Security of the Belarusian State University (Minsk, Republic of Belarus).
© Шэн Иннань, Ли Шуан, Хоменко Т.В., 2G24. © Sheng Yingnan, Li Shuang, Khomenko T.V., 2G24.
