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Егоров А.А.
Доктор физико-математических наук, внештатный профессор-консультант.
Российский Университет Дружбы Народов имени Патриса Лумумб.
Егорова М.А.
Кандидат политических наук, доцент. Российский Университет Дружбы Народов имени Патриса Лумумб.
Исчезновение рейса MH370: 10 летний исторический обзор
Egorov A.A.
Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, freelance professor-consultant. Russian Peoples' Friendship University named after Patrice Lumumb.
Egorova M.A.
Candidate of Political Sciences, Associate Professor. Russian Peoples' Friendship University named after Patrice Lumumb.
Disappearance of Flight MH370: 10-years historical review
1. Introduction
The Indian Ocean is known not only for the history of great discoveries made by sailors from different countries, but also for the history of various cataclysms and incidents (see, for example, [1-3]). Little was known in the West about the exotic cultures and riches of the Indian Ocean and its peoples until a Portuguese explorer Vasco da Gama discovered a sea route to India [1]. This happened during the Age of Discovery in 1498. The first mentions of shipwrecks in the Indian Ocean in historical literature appear in the 15th - 16th centuries, apparently in connection with the beginning of active searches for a sea route to India. However, the ancient Greeks knew about the existence of the Indian Ocean, or more precisely its western part. They called it the Eritrean or Red Sea. It is believed that the name "Indian Ocean" began to be used in the 16th century. However, it was introduced back in the I-st century by the Roman historian Pliny the Elder as "Oceanus Indicus".
From the list of various incidents and disasters in the Indian Ocean, we note only the crash of the A320 airliner in the Java Sea, which occurred on December 28, 2014. According to the report, the causes of the accident were technical problems during bad weather with the on-board computer and erroneous actions of the crew to correct these problems.
The chronology of an air crash of plane Boeing MH370 has already ten years' history. Let us now present some now known facts and give brief information about the place where the plane Boeing 777-200ER crash occurred. As you know, the flight of the Malaysia Airlines airliner Boeing 777-200ER (registered as 9M-MRO) was a scheduled passenger flight on the "Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia) - Beijing (China)" route operated on March 8, 2014 [4-8]. In accordance with the standards of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), the Ministry of Transport formed in 2014 an international team to investigate the circumstances of the disappearance of the aircraft Boeing 777-200ER - Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 (MH370/ MAS370). The group's tasks include establishing the causes and details of the incident, and developing recommendations to prevent similar incidents in the future. It included representatives of seven aviation accident investigation agencies from Australia, Great Britain, Indonesia, China, Singapore, US, France, and specialists from various organizations were involved at various stages. Boeing 777 disappeared in the sky over the sea 40 minutes after takeoff [6, 7]. There were 239 people on board the flight MH370 (12 crew members and 227 passengers). Their fate remains unknown, but in January 2015 they were all declared dead as a result of an "accident." The search for the crash site took place in several stages from 2014 to 2018.
The search and rescue operation began with an inspection of the South China Sea area where the plane last made contact (see, for example, "Figure 1.1A - Chronological Sequence of Events of Disappearance of MH370" in [6]). At the next stage, an inspection of the Malacca strait was carried out (see, for example, "Figure 1.1B - Diversion from Filed Flight Plan Route (not to scale)" in [6]). Then the search was carried out in the ocean off the west coast of Australia. At this stage, abyssal devices were used. The result of all searches: the crash site was not found ("There was no reported ground impact or damage to any ground facilities or properties." [6]). As a result, the investigative authorities did not establish the circumstances and causes of the incident.
The main purpose of the article is to suggest alternative search locations. Consideration of the four hypotheses put forward allowed us to come to the conclusion that the third hypothesis is preferable: Boeing MH370 crash into the Arabian-Indian ridge water area.
2. Description of the incident region and initial data
The Indian Ocean is the third ocean in terms of area and depth on Earth and makes up about 20% of its water surface [2, 3]. The area of the Indian Ocean is about 76 million m2; the volume is more than 282 million m3. The greatest depth is 7729 meters. In the north, the Indian Ocean washes Asia, in the west - Africa, in the east - Australia; in the south it borders on Antarctica. The Indian Ocean borders two oceans: the Atlantic and the Pacific. The Indian Ocean is about 10,000 m wide (between the southern points of Australia and Africa). There are many islands in the Indian Ocean.
The Bay of Bengal is located in the northeast of the Indian Ocean. And in the east it is bordered by the Andaman Sea, its maximum depth is about 4500 m. In the north of the Indian Ocean in the Bay of Bengal west of the Andaman Islands, the East Indian Ridge begins (one of the five mid-ocean ridges of the Indian Ocean) and goes south approximately along the meridian 90° east longitude. The East Indian Ridge extends approximately 5,000 km along the 90°E meridian, between 10°N and 34°S latitude. The ridge rises 1000-2000 m above the ocean bed. The depths above the ridge are about 2000-4000 m. The slopes of the East Indian Ridge are mostly silted.
In Fig. 1 there is a map showing the bottom relief of the Indian Ocean. The map shows quite clearly the seamounts, in particular the East Indian Ridge in the Bay of Bengal. In the southern part of the Indian Ocean (at approximate coordinates: 88° east longitude and 30° south latitude), the East Indian Ridge can be seen turning towards Australia (at a distance of about 2000 km from Australia).
Fig. 1. The Indian Ocean bottom relief location map. Four possible crash sites of Boeing MH370 are also depicted: "A", "B", "C", "D".
There are several currents in the Indian Ocean; here is a list of them, moving from north to south: North Equatorial, Somali, Equatorial counter (Countercurrent), South Equatorial, Mozambique, South Indian, and Antarctic Circumpolar. And now we present a list of currents, moving from west to east: Agulhas, Mozambique, South Indian, and Western Australian.
The equatorial countercurrent is a powerful current between the North Equatorial and the South Equatorial, observed in the equatorial region around the entire globe in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian oceans. These currents are directed eastward against the dominant winds, as well as against the movement of the main surface currents in the oceans. The South Equatorial (Southern Trade Wind Current) is named after the prevailing winds in the area - trade winds, blowing from east to west. This is a warm current passing through southern tropical latitudes. The average speed of the current is about 2.6 km per hour. The Somali Current is a warm current off the Somali Peninsula. The average speed of the current is about 1.8 km per hour. The Madagascar Current is a warm surface current off the eastern and southern coasts of the island of Madagascar. The current is directed to the south and southwest, the current speed is approximately 2-3 km per hour. Note that the neighboring Mozambique Current has approximately the same speed: 2.8 km per hour. The West Australian Current is a cold current in the southeastern part of the Indian Ocean. It flows off the western coast of Australia from south to north. In the tropical zone of the Southern Hemisphere, part of the Western Australian Current passes into the South Equatorial. The speed of the Western Australian Current is 0.7-0.9 m per hour. We will also indicate the approximate speed of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. In the surface layer: 4-14 km per hour; in the deep layer: 0.4-0.9 km per hour.
There are four climate zones in the Indian Ocean region. In the northern part of the Indian Ocean, under the influence of the Asian continent, a monsoon climate is established with frequent cyclones moving towards the coasts. Note that in winter, high atmospheric pressure over Asia causes the formation of the northeast monsoon. In summer it gives way to the humid southwest monsoon. During the summer monsoon there are winds of more than 7 forces. Temperature over the Indian Ocean: in summer about 28-32 °C, in winter up to 18-22 °C. For more detailed information about the climate of the region, we recommend turning to publicly available sources (see, for example, [2, 3, 6]).
It is important to underline, that irrespective of the cores search groups after one and a half year after disappearance of airliner MH370 on distances above 4000 km from a potential place of its crash into Indian Ocean 6 fragments of the plane frame have been found casually out [6-8].
Here is their list. #1. Broken wings - aileron-closed. Length about 2.5 ■
meters; its surface was covered with shells. The markings have been preserved on the wing part "657BB". It was found on the Reunion Island (4000 kilometers west of the supposed crash site). Thus, from March 8, 2014 to July 29, 2015, approximately 16 months passed, i.e. 1 year and 4 months. The international investigative team explained the discovery of debris at such a distance (about 4000 km) from the site of the disaster search by the influence of winds and ocean currents, which carried the debris to the Reunion Island shore. In this regard, there are no plans to change the search territory [6-8]. Moreover, Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) has considered, that detection of the Boeing MH370 debris on Reunion confirms reliability of the chosen place in Indian Ocean of carrying out search operations [6-8]. #2. and #3. Broken wing guide fairing flap (676EB) and right horizontal tail stabilizer panel. They were discovered independently of each other in December, 2015 and February, 2016 on the Mozambique shore. #4. and #5. A segment of the engine fairing and a piece of interior door trim R1 were found on March 22 and 30, 2016 on the beach near Mossel Bay, South Africa, and was found on the coast of the Island of Rodrigues, Mauritius, respectively. #6. Broken rear wing rim, found on the island Mauritius in 2016.
The identity of the found debris was confirmed by an international investigative team. To get a detailed look at the results of the searches, we recommend that you refer, for example, to the more than four hundred page report [7].
3. Results of research and their discussion
In present paper short results of the search for the crash site of airliner Boeing MH370 of the Malaysia Airlines ("Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia) - Beijing (China)" route operated on March 8, 2014) are outlined. Main results are depicted in Fig. 1.
Numbers in Fig. 1 show: 0 is the place of disappearance of the airliner according to radar data (see "Figure 1.1C - Radar Coverage Chart of Kuala Lumpur and Kota Kinabalu FIRs" in [6]); 1 is the expected direction (sector) of flight in a southerly direction; 2 is the expected direction (sector) of flight in a westerly direction; 3 is the expected flight direction (sector) in the south-west direction. The arrows in the northern and eastern directions from Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia) indicate at least two more possible flight directions. Moreover, theoretically, all flight directions within the "estimated flight range" (which was provided by fuel supply on the airliner) should be considered.
Four supposed search locations in sectors 1-3 are showed with small circles that marked in Fig. 1 with letters: "A", "B", "C", "D". It is important
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to note that the estimated crash sites of the airliner are within the distance of the "estimated flight range" provided by the fuel supply. Note that the distance to places "C" and "D" in sectors 2 and 3 is close to the maximum allowable distance.
In Fig. 1 the main wind direction over India and the Bay of Bengal in winter and the beginning of spring is also approximately shown by dark red arrows. In the upper left part of Fig. 1 two ellipses are also drawn, the borders of which are lighter in color than the adjacent parts of the map (see details below).
These ellipses approximately correspond to the first (internal) and to the third (external) rings from seven constructed on the basis of independent automatic communication of satellite Inmarsat with the airliner (see "Figure 4: BTO ring solutions for MH370." in [7]. Inmarsat recorded the burst timing offset (BTO). In satellite communications, a handshake is a series of signalling messages that establish or maintain a communication channel.).
The research carried out allowed us to put forward four basic hypotheses: 1) the airliner crash into the west of the Andaman islands, to the East Indian ridge in the Bay of Bengal (see Fig. 1, place marked with letter "A"); 2) airliner crash into a eastern part of Indian ocean, to the south of Indonesia (see Fig. 1, place marked with letter "B"); 3) airliner crash into the Arabian-Indian ridge in 400-600 km to the east of the island La Digue entering into Seychelles archipelago (see Fig. 1, place marked with letter "C"); 4) airliner crash into 900-1000 km to the west of Maldives Islands (see Fig. 1, place marked with letter "D").
Let us briefly consider the first two hypotheses. We emphasize that we take into account the data available in the open press, but we proceed from the fact that, in principle, any scenario for the development of events is possible. First, let us remind you that the search and rescue operation began with an inspection of the South China Sea area where the plane last made contact. This makes it possible to eliminate with a high degree of probability the possibility of an airliner crash into the South China Sea. However, the possibility of the airliner crashing somewhere in an eastern direction, for example, in the Philippine Sea or in the territories of Indonesia and Philippines, cannot be completely ruled out. At a following stage has been observed Malacca Strait. Further searches were spent in the Indian Ocean at the western coast of Australia (to the south of the place "B"). The result of all searches: the crash site of airliner Boeing MH370 was not found. Comparing places where the search and rescue operations were spent with Fig. 1, we come to conclusion, that there is no information on searches in the western and southwest directions.
Within the limits of the third hypothesis we assume, that the crash site
of airliner Boeing MH370 is somewhere on the Arabian-Indian ridge approximately in 400-600 km to the east of the island La-Dig entering into Seychelles archipelago (see Fig. 1, place marked with letter "C"). Let's consider this hypothesis more in detail below, after short consideration of the fourth hypothesis. We will underline, that there is no information on search and rescue operations in these water areas.
Within the limits of the fourth hypothesis it is supposed, that airliner crash into 900-1000 km to the west of Maldives Islands (see Fig. 1, place marked with letter "D"). It's important to note, that there is no information on search and rescue operations in this water area.
Let's consider now more in detail the third hypothesis which we consider as the most probable. According to this hypothesis the place of crash of airliner MH370 is on the Arabian-Indian ridge approximately in the middle between Seychelles and Mascarene Islands.
It is located in 400-600 km to the east of the island La-Dig entering into Seychelles archipelago ("Cape La Digue, Mauritius. Island co-ordinates: 4°22'48"S 55°50'48"E".).
The island La Digue is discovered in 1744. It is located in Indian Ocean, island La Digue belongs to the Seychelles state. It is one of the largest islands of archipelago.
The Arabian-Indian ridge is an underwater median-oceanic ridge. It stretches for 3700 km from the Gulf of Aden to island Rodriguez and further passes in the Central Indian ridge. The width of the Arabian-Indian ridge is about 650 km. Minimum depth is about 1300 m. The surface of the ridge is dissected by slip zones. Near the crest of the ridge there are rift gorges with a depth of up to 6500 m. These relief features of the Arabian-Indian ridge, possibly, could become the key factor of disappearance of the airliner MH370 in case of its crash into this place.
During airliner Boeing 777-200ER disappearance the detailed attention in the report [6] is paid to a meteorological situation (see section 1.7.1.). Let's also pay attention that Malaysian meteorological department has noted the absence of rain weather around the incident area (see "Figure 1.7A: Infrared satellite image taken by MTSAT at 1732 UTC 07 March 2014" and "Figure 1.7B: Meteorological radar image at 1722 UTC 07 March 2014" in [6]).
As an indirect proof of our third hypothesis we will cite the data received on the basis of independent communications of satellite Inmarsat with the airliner MH370 (see "Figure 4: BTO ring solutions for MH370." [7]). Using these data, a row of seven rings have been constructed [7], showing a range of possible sites of the plane during each "hand shake", i.e. automatic information interchange between the satellite and the airliner MH370. In the report [7] it is noticed, that as a result rings have been reduced in length
to arches and the seventh arc, which is passing near to the western coast of Australia, has been chosen as the most probable.
After consideration of all these data, we have drawn a conclusion that there is a certain probability to find Boeing 777-200ER not in east, but in the western parts of rings (arcs).
Within the limits of our third hypothesis the crash site of airliner Boeing MH370 is probably on the Arabian-Indian ridge or near to it (see Fig. 1, place marked with letter "C"). In fact, through theoretical consideration of possible versions it is not required to be limited only to the arches located in east water area of Indian Ocean.
Consideration of all seven rings both with our data shows, that it is necessary to consider the first and second arches (and spaces nearby), and exactly in the western and northwest water area of Indian Ocean. As consequence, in this case the most probable places of the airliner downfall are two places: places noted by letters "C" and "D" in the Fig. 1.
Taking into account features of currents of Indian Ocean also allows coming out with the assumption that the most probable places of the airliner downfall are two water areas: 1) Arabian Sea; 2) Indian Ocean between Seychelles and Mascarene Islands. At the same time, we cannot exclude completely probability of MH370 crash into other parts of Indian Ocean yet.
Now we will calculate approximate time of movement of fragments (debris) of an airliner in waters of the Indian Ocean due to currents in the specified areas.
We take as the approached estimation average speed of a current equal 2.5 km per hour at a cover layer and approximately in 5-8 times less in a deep layer. Hence, the error of the speed setting is equal approximately 20 %. Let's consider the error same for distances to a possible place of airplane crash.
We receive following approximate values for time of debris moving from four possible places of airliner crash into Reunion Island. 1) East Indian ridge in the Bay of Bengal (Fig. 1, a place marked by the letter "A"): from 15 to 24 months. Taking into account lower average speed of the current near Somali peninsula this time can increase. 2) Central part of Indian Ocean, to the south of Indonesia (Fig. 1, a place marked by the letter "B"): from 16 to 26 months. Taking into account Equatorial counter directed to east against movement of the basic surface currents this time can increase. 3) Arabian-Indian ridge in 400-600 km to the east of the island La Digue (Fig. 1, a place marked by the letter "C"): from 7 to 12 months. Taking into account a complicated relief of the Arabian-Indian ridge, obviously, can increase this time. Indeed, its minimum depth is about 1300 m; near the crest of the ridge there are rift gorges with a depth of up to 6500 m. The surface of the Arabian-Indian ridge is dissected by slip zones. 4) 900-1000
km to the west of Maldives Islands (Fig. 1, a place marked by the letter "D"): jaw from 10 to 16 months.
Let's remind that the first fragment has been found out on July 29, 2015 on Reunion Island (4000 km to the west of "official" possible airliner downfall place near Australia). That is approximately after 16 months.
Comparing the above stated data on possible time of moving of debris together with a current, we come to conclusion, that at such calculation following possible places of airliner crash are more preferable: places marked by letters "A", "B" and "D" (see Рис. 1). However they have no decided advantage with a place marked by the letter "С". Especially, if to consider very approximate quality of the made estimations without many features of movement of water mass in ocean, especially in zones of rift deep water gorges.
Taking into account areas of mutual overlapping (see Fig. 1) of sectors (shows approximately distance to "estimated flight range" (which was provided by the fuel supply on the airliner)) and two ellipses (show a range of possible locations of the plane during each automatic information interchange between the satellite and an airliner) allows to expand water area of possible crash of an airliner to the sizes of these areas of overlapping. The places marked by letters "C", "D" get to these areas; the place "A" is on border of corresponding area, and the place "B" is in a vicinity of the fifth ring (to the north of a place of official searches near Australia). We give in a result preference to a place marked by the letter "C". At the same time, undoubtedly, it is impossible to exclude probability of MH370 crash into other places.
Therefore, the accomplished consideration shows that crash of airliner Boeing MH370 of "Malaysia Airlines" most likely could occur into the place specified by us on the Arabian-Indian ridge in 400-600 km to the east of the island La Digue (Fig. 1, a place marked by the letter "С").
Let's notice, that calculated diameter of a circle for searches in this place is about 900 km (at the error about 20 % and the distance from Kuala Lumpur to the point "С" nearby 4600 km), i.e. larger twice than a circle surrounding the point "С" in Fig. 1. Thus, the possible place of airplane crash is in the specified water area of the Arabian-Indian ridge on distance approximately (4600 ± 450) km from Kuala Lumpur.
Currently assume that debris of the airliner MH370 are distributed in Indian Ocean in a random way (the set of random factors operates). Now we will depict a Gauss distribution (it is marked by number 4 in Fig. 1) concerning the centre of seven rings [7] showing a range of possible locations of the plane. The approximate shape of a one dimensional curve two-dimensional Gauss profile is schematically shown in Fig. 1.
For the given curve the approximate estimation of a standard deviation is received: 2000 km. This quantity is equal approximately to: radius of the
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first ring; half of distance from Kuala Lumpur to the point "C". The probability that any random variable is distributed under the normal law, will be in area limits under the curve limited to doubled value of this size, is equal approximately 68 %. This area is approximately equal in our case to the area limited to an internal ellipse (see Fig. 1).
Let's take some element of a surface with a length equal to a standard deviation. On a distance (under Gauss curve) from Kuala Lumpur to a beach near Mossel Bay, South Africa, with uniform distribution of separate elements, four of these elements can be positioned. The number of elements will be cut by half, if to place these elements without contact with each other. For probability 68 % it is necessary to multiply 2 by 0.68, then we receive one element that actually assumed in the third hypothesis (see Fig. 1, a place marked by the letter "C").
These estimations show, that the statistical approach correlates with the conclusions made above. Moreover, three of six debris of the airliner MH370 are found in limits of an internal ellipse, i.e. probability of their hit in the area under Gauss curve is 50 % (for the subsequent ellipses probability is greater).
Unfortunately, it is necessary to underline, that described above segments of mutual overlapping of an internal ellipse and sectors 2, 3 (see Fig. 1) have the big area that will obviously complicate airliner searches in the specified places. For simplification of searches it is possible to take as initial water area of searches, for example, the ellipse of the smaller size uniting places "C" and "D". In this case water area of searches is the central and southern parts of Arabian Sea (to the west of Maldives Islands both to the north and north-east of Seychelles Islands), especially water area of the Arabian-Indian ridge.
It is important to remind, that our research is mainly theoretical, it is based on open sources, and the possible places of Boeing MH370 crash found eventually should be considered only as allowable within the limits of the made hypotheses. It is possible to come out with the obvious assumption that the airliner crash could occur for some reasons, caused by internal or external influences. It could be, for example, the technical causes due to any malfunctions of an airliner. There could be the reasons connected with the natural phenomena, for example, tropical hurricane with a thunder-storm, storm weather with sudden impulses of a wind, micro squalls etc. While the airliner, possibly, has already left to this time a control zone in the departure region.
It is necessary to underline also what exactly in center part of Indian Ocean storm weather is connected with tropical hurricanes. We will notice that in the winter they can occur as well in southern tropical zone. It is important to notice, that more often hurricanes occur in the western part
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of Indian Ocean (to eight times a year), in areas of Madagascar and Mas-carene Islands. We will underline, that we did not consider other possible reasons of incident, for example, aircraft hijacking or flight crew errors [9]. Except the possible natural weather reasons it is important to remind, that the given potential place of airliner crash (see Fig. 1, a place marked by the letter "С") is on distance close to the maximum permissible distance of "estimated flight range" (which was provided by the fuel supply on the airliner). That is the fuel just run out, and Boeing MH370 crash into Indian Ocean. Another, probably, the most important question: why Boeing MH370 was there? Regardless of places where the airliner will be found out, this question will arise undoubtedly.
4. Discussion. Conclusion
In this paper four hypotheses of MH370 downfall were considered: 1) the airliner crash into the west of the Andaman islands, to the East Indian ridge in the Bay of Bengal; 2) airliner crash into a eastern part of Indian ocean, to the south of Indonesia; 3) airliner crash into the Arabian-Indian ridge in 400-600 km to the east of the island La Digue entering into Seychelles archipelago; 4) airliner crash into 900-1000 km to the west of Maldives Islands. The analysis of these hypotheses has allowed us to conclude that third hypothesis is more promising. Through consideration of the put forward hypotheses authors started with the accessible information in open sources. Once again we will underline, that found in result of research possible airliner crash places should be considered only as hypothet-ically probable within the limits of the put forward hypotheses. We agree with principle of investigation declared in [6]: "The sole objective of the investigation is the prevention of future accidents or incidents and not for the purpose to apportion blame or liability".
Библиографический список / References
1. Hall R. Empires of the monsoon: a history the Indian Ocean and its invaders. - London: HarperCollins, 1998.
2. Indian Ocean. // URL: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Ocean#History
3. Cornell J. Cornell's Ocean Atlas. - NY: Cornell Sailing, 2023.
4. Official website. // URL: http://www.mh370.gov.my/index.php/en.
5. Joint Agency Coordination Centre (JACC). // URL: https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/
6. Malaysia Airlines MH370 Boeing B777-200ER (9M-MRO) 08 March 2014. Safety Investigation Report by The Malaysian ICAO Annex 13 Safety Investigation Team for MH370. - Malaysia: Ministry of Transport, 2015.
7. The Operational Search for MH370 (Final). - Canberra: Australian Transport Safety Bureau, 2017.
8. Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. // URL: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_370.
9. Wise J. Exclusive: MH370 Pilot Flew a Suicide Route on His Home Simulator Closely Matching Final Flight. New York. VOX MEDIA. July 22, 2016.
