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17INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS OF THE RUSSIAN FINANCIAL MARKET IN DIGITAL GLOBALIZATION
Aleksei V. Kuznetsov (corresponding author)
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Russia. E-mail: kuznetsov0572@mail.ru
Marina V. Skripnikova
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Russia. E-mail: marina-skr97@mail.ru
Abstract. The paper deals with the problems of interrelation and interdependence of the processes of globalization and development of the national segment of world financial market. The purpose of the paper is to consider the real position of Russia on the global market and identify factors improving international competitiveness in the world finance globalization. The paper discusses the problems hindering the total integration of the Russian financial market into the world financial system. It analyzes the position of Russia in the ranking of global financial centers along with the specifics of its interaction with international financial organizations. The study identifies the main reasons determining the cumulative lagging of Russia, primarily BRICS countries, in improving the model of financial markets. The features characterizing the specifics of the Russian financial market development are classified in the paper. Finally, the paper summarizes the measures taken by the Bank of Russia to address the shortcomings of the Russian financial market, including measures to stimulate innovation in the financial sector using digital technologies. The authors conclude that the international competitiveness of the Russian financial market in digital globalization directly depends on reducing costs and raw material dependence of the Russian economy by effectively using the existing scientific and innovative potential.
Keywords: Russian financial market, digital globalization, competitiveness, international financial centers, international financial organizations, digital technologies.
JEL codes: F3, G15, G2
For citation: Kuznetsov, A., & Skripnikova , M. . (2020). International competitiveness of the russian financial market in digital globalization. Journal of regional and international competitiveness, (1), 47-55. Retrieved from http://jraic.com/index.php/tor/ article/view/7
Introduction
The development of the global economy is influenced by digital globalization, which increases the interaction between countries and, in turn, leads to the erasure of borders and weakened protection of national industries. The global economy digitalization provides national companies and individuals with free access to various segments of the global financial market, which makes it necessary to constantly improve their international competitiveness.
Russia lacks the competitiveness in the global financial market. There is an objective need to identify areas of the economy that can raise its level with the fastest and most effective modernization. Various aspects of the international competitiveness of the Russian financial market were studied by S.A. Andryushin (2018), V.P. Bitkov, K.E. Manuilov (2018), E.A. Zvonova (2019), A.V. Navoi, I.A. Balyuk (2018), V.V. Maslennikov, M.A. Eskindarov (2020), M.A. Abramova, O.I. Lavrushin, V.Ya.Pishchik, B.B. Rubtsov, S.P. Solyannikova (2019).
Interdependence of globalization and national financial market
The global financial market acts as a kind of indicator of the current economic situation in the world. Its main purpose is to identify efficient industries to reallocate money flow, which would further generate profit or increase the reliability of the resources used. Banks, large companies, and other professional participants of foreign economic activity are sources of short-term cash capital, which works as «hot money» in various segments of the global financial market. The reasons for the transformation of capital into «hot money»
are economic and political instability, external imbalances, high inflation, exchange crises, interest rates development, and speculative trading (Dobrishina, Sidorova, 2018). This flow of «hot money» around the world was exacerbated by the crisis of the Bretton-Woods monetary system in the 1960-70s. Its fundamental flaws evolved into the functioning Jamaican monetary system which liberal principles contributed to the formation of the modern world financial market model (Dobrishina, Sidorova, 2018).
Thus, globalization is the organization of the states' financial systems, economies of which are at different stages of development and are characterized by different degrees of vulnerability (Impact of globalization to the formation of the Russian financial market, 2018). The consequences of globalization are: constant development of telecommunications and information technology, expansion of activities of various economic entities on the stock markets and international investments, consolidation of tax systems to create clear and transparent rules for all participants of foreign economic activity, improving the system of financial markets regulation to a uniform standard, and the establishment of appropriate international and national authorities (The global economy of the 21st century: the dialectic of ideals and the realities of confrontation, 2017).
So, on the one hand, the globalization of financial systems leads to a reduction of obstacles to the movement of capital between different countries, and, on the other hand, it increases the intensity of mutual interaction between financial market participants in terms of limited profit prospects, increasing the risks of destabilization of national financial markets (Garipova, Xiao Tini, 2018).
In terms of features of globalization described above, the issue of attracting investment and maintaining economic transparency to increase international competitiveness remains extremely relevant for Russia, even in the face of acute political confrontation with some countries, imposed economic sanctions, and COVID-19 restrictions.
It is important to highlight that the Russian financial market is relatively young. As of 2020, it is 29 years only (Main directions of Russian Federation financial market development during the period of 2019-2021, 2020). In this case, the development of the domestic stock market during its formation is influenced by many non-fundamental factors, such as, for example, dependence on the opinions of major Western institutions and organizations. In particular, the integration of shares into the payments of certain indices causes an increase of their value in the domestic stock market. This happened with Polymetal bonds, which became about 4% more expensive after being put on MSCI Russia index (Moscow exchange, 2020).
Another factor of dependence of the internal stock market of the Russian Federation on manipulations and decisions of foreign investors is the change of rating in major credit ratings, such as Fitch, Standart & Poor's and Moody's. It should be noted that downgrading a country always leads to a lower rating of companies operating in it. In 2015, Moody's reported that Russian sovereign rating had dropped from Baa3 to Ba1and the predictions are negative. As a consequence, the domestic stock market sharply declined. This, in turn, led to an 11% decline of Sberbank's stock value in March 2015 (Moscow exchange, 2020).
One specific aspect of globalization is the ability of commercial entities in Russia to raise funds for loans by placing equity on foreign platforms; the most important and prestigious is the London Stock Exchange (LSE). In addition, Russian companies can use various other exchanges, including the Pacific Exchange, the Boston Exchange, the Frankfurt Exchange, etc. (Loginov, Shkuta, 2017).
Russia as an international financial center
One of the most significant expressions of the world financial system globalization is the increasing role of the international financial centers. Among the most important characteristics of these centers are the infrastructure and the conditions for attracting international capital. Due to a very large potential capital in the world financial market (compared with national investment reserves) and the differences between the conditions and the patterns of capital attraction, it seems logical that commercial entities attracting financial resources through bonds and equities plan to expand their operations by improving their international competitiveness level (Global financial architecture reforming and the Russian financial market, 2016).
The Global Financial Centres Index (GFCI) is a key indicator for a country's competitiveness assessing in the global financial market. This index has been published since March 2007 twice a year, in March and
September by the British consulting company Z/Yen Group Limited. The first rankings covered 47 financial centers but 120 were included in March 2020 (The Global Financial Centres Index, 2020).
Methodically, this index is based on a factor assessment model that includes:
1. Tool factors are based on two types of data:
- statistical indicators provided by international organizations such as the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), The World Bank, World Federation of Stock Exchanges, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the International Network PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC);
- evidence from other studies such as the Global Competitiveness Report (World Economic Forum), Ease of Doing Business Index (World Bank), Corruption Perception Index (Transparency International), Internet Index (World Wide Web Foundation), Index of Economic Freedom (Heritage Foundation), Global Cities Index (AT Kearney), Global City Competitiveness (The Economist). In the March report, 138 tool factors were used to rate financial centers.
2. An assessment factor based on interviews with over 5,000 professional financiers. Financial centers are added to the questionnaire only after receiving five or more entries in the online survey: «Name financial centers that could become significantly more important in the next 2-3 years.» The final rating includes only those financial centers that have received more than 50 reviews in the last 24 months.
Institutional factors are divided into five groups forming the final rating of financial centers competitiveness: business environment (34 factors), financial sector development (25 factors), infrastructure (31 factors), human capital (24 factors), reputation and common factors (24 factors). Each component has an equal weight in the final count and the maximum possible rating is 1,000 points. From the very beginning of publication, the rating is led by New York and London, which change places periodically. They are followed by Tokyo, Shanghai, Singapore, and Hong Kong.
In March 2020, Moscow rose to 71st (from 88th in March 2019), while St. Petersburg fell from 73rd to 97th. The capital of Russia scored 644 points and passed, for example, Mexico City (78th place, 637 points), Istanbul (79th place, 646 points), Budapest (84th place, 628 points) and ended up between Kazakhstan (72nd place, 643 points) and Riga (70th place, 645 points) (Fig. 1).
Growth is led by financial centers from Eastern Europe, Central Asia, the Middle East and Africa, primarily because of the low base of comparison and, consequently, the high potential for development. Among the financial centers of these regions, the financial centers of those countries that have chosen to liberalize their financial markets are the most dynamic. Among the cities of the former Soviet Union, Alma-Ata is at the highest 55th place in the ranking and it is close to financial centers such as Liechtenstein, Rome, Tallinn.
Russia in the system of international financial organizations
Russia's relationship with key international financial institutions is highly contradictory. The USSR was at the origin of the Bretton-Woods institutions — the IMF and the IBRD (Bretton Woods. Next 70 years, 2017), but never ratified their statutes. Since the collapse of the USSR and the entry of Russia into these international structures, significant changes in relations with them have taken place.
During the period of cooperation with the IMF, Russia has set aside loans totaling SDR 21.5 bn., of which SDR 11.3 bn. have been actually disbursed (International Monetary Fund, 2020). By 2005, Russia had fully paid its accrued expenditures to the Fund and was currently its net creditor of SDR 12.9 bn. (Special Drawing Rights) (IMF, 2020). Also, for the period up to 2020, Russia has provided $10 bn. to the Fund under the New Arrangements for Loans (IMF, 2020).
As a result of the IMF quota and governance reform, Russia has become one of the top 10 IMF states, holding 2.7 percent of all quotas and 2.6 percent of votes. However, the revision of the formula used in the quota process remains a matter of discussion for the Russian Federation and the BRICS partners. Many IMF member states were still expressing their dissatisfaction with the formula, which did not fully take into account the increased weight of developing countries in the world economy. There has been no progress yet.
The fifteenth General Review of Quotas was completed without quotas increasing. The sixteenth General Review of Quotas is to be completed no later than 15 December 2023. The revision of the formula is predicted to be a starting point for a new quota review in the future._
700
^^Istanbul ^^Warsaw Prague ^^Moscow Riga
Figure 1. Comparison of Moscow rating with leading financial centers in Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Source: The Global Financial Centres Index (GFCI) / URL: https://www.longfinance.net/programmes/financial-centre-futures/ global-financial-centres-index/gfci-publications/ (2020)
An important issue of cooperation ofRussia with international financial organizations is the international status of the ruble. Even before the global financial crisis of 2008, high-ranking IMF official predicted that the ruble could become a world reserve currency (IMF says ruble could become reserve currency, 2008). Since then, however, IMF took no certain steps in this case. However, the inclusion of ruble in reserve currencies is not only a subjective position of IMF. The status of the world reserve currency objectively presupposes its active use in foreign economic settlements and world exchange, as well as its ability to satisfy the demand for international liquidity. Dealing with these kinds of international activity, the actual indicators do not support the ruble. Thus, according to the Triennial Central Bank Survey of foreign exchange and OTC derivatives markets, every three years provided by the Bank for International Settlements, the Russian ruble has been in the list of the world's most traded national currencies for seven years (2013-2019). It was ranked 17th in 2019 against 12th in 2013. The share of ruble in world transactions decreased by 0.5% — from 1.6% to 1.1% (Bank of International Settlements, 2020). The data concerning the use of the ruble in international payments are encouraging. According to SWIFT, in October 2020, the ruble ranked 17th with a share of 0.26% among the international currencies used for these purposes. In September 2018, it ranked 20 with a share of 0.19% (RMB Tracker. SWIFT, 2020).
According to Russian experts, in order to strengthen the international status of the ruble, it is necessary to ensure its currency stability, reduce the dollarization of the economy, and develop the national financial market (Trunin, Narkevich, 2013). At the same time, Russia should continue creating an integrated EAEU exchange market and increasing the share of the ruble in the mutual transactions of the EAEU and BRICS countries. It also needs to increase the volumes of ruble foreign trade loans and guarantees, move towards using ruble in energy supply transactions (Gavrilov, Prilepskiy, 2017). On the other hand, the use of ruble in international transactions depends directly on the growth rate of the Russian economy and its future place in
the global economy compared with the nearest competitors (Buklemishev, Danilov, 2018).
After joining IMF, Russia became a member of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), the International Finance Corporation (IFC), the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) and the International Development Association (IDA). These entities are part of the World Bank. Their ultimate objective is to provide technical and financial assistance to developing countries (Smislov, 2020).
Since Russia joined IBRD, it has received 71 loans $14.4 bn in total. A joint activity of IFC and Russia is financing the businesses with investments and loans, as well as advisory assistance. Since 1993 IFC's long-term investments in Russia have amounted more than $10 bn. Including $3.5 bn granted as syndicated loans (World Bank Group, 2020). IFC resources were mainly used in financial services, manufacturing, infrastructure, oil and gas, telecommunications, retail, and health.
The process of mutual cooperation between Russia and MIGA consists in ensuring the participants of investment and credit markets against all kinds of political risks. At present, Russia ranks fourth among the organization's clients in terms of the amount of guarantee rights granted to it (Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency, 2020). It should be mentioned that since the introduction and further expansion of anti-Russian sanctions, the cooperation of Russia with the organizations of the World Bank has almost ceased.
Development prospects of the Russian financial market
The competitive position of any state in the global market is determined by a large number of factors, which are influenced by a country's economy, investment policies, attraction of foreign capital, etc. The main factors determining the development of financial market include the extent it is involved in the global infrastructure; the development of legal and public institutions; the level of prosperity and quality of life of the population; economic diversification; key characteristics of the country's economic and social situation .
The BRICS countries (China, Brazil, India and South Africa) are the main competitors of Russia on the global financial market. At the inception of the BRICS group, each of these states occupied almost the same position on the world financial market. In recent years, however, Russian financial market has lagged far behind the other BRICS countries. Since 2011, Russia has been experiencing significant losses in the stock market (Fig. 2). Since 2014, this trend has been evident in other segments of the Russian financial market.
Figure 2. BRICS shares in world stock trade, %
Source: World Bank Group / URL: https://www.worldbank.org/ (2020)
Due to the world financial market being unstable since COVID-19 pandemic had started, the possible consequence of this lag could be the greater decline of the Russian financial market compared with the BRICS partners.
Among other reasons, Russia might not have a lot of long-term investors compared with other rapidly developing countries as well as have a large overhead of banking assets over non-banking assets. The main reason is the almost total lack of long-term investment at the domestic level. China has the best development index of the BRICS, followed by Brazil (Fig. 3).
The low level of long-term investment leads to significant restrictions during the placement of securities in the financial and primary equity markets. At present, the Russian share market is being distributed to a relatively small number of investors, and most of them are foreign. This limitation is a direct consequence of the decline in market liquidity.
The liquidity of the Russian financial market is negatively affected by the growing imbalance between the banking and non-banking sectors. If there were more large non-bank organizations on the market, they could have maintained their liquidity through the purchase or sale of securities on exchange markets without using banks. However, the liquidity providers are the banks, and they mostly provide liquidity through REPO transactions rather than directly. The number of such transactions in Russia exceeds 90% (Dudnikov, 2018). As a result, the trading of securities is under pressure, and the number of non-bank enterprises is declining.
Figure 3. The BRICS countries' share of net assets in mutual funds, %
Source: Investment Company Institute. URL: https://www.ici.org/ (2020).
Thus, here are the specific aspects the development of the Russian financial market:
- the orientation of economic agents during investment transactions, mainly through own capital;
- banks over non-bank financial institutions predominance;
- high assets concentration. For example, the top five financial institutions of the banking sector account for about 60.4 per cent of the total assets of the entire economic sector;
- the key role of intercompany and budgetary channels in the redistribution of financial resources (Bitkov, Manuilov, 2018);
- lack of public vigor. Only a little part of the population (0.88 per cent) has the accounts with the brokers. Less than 0.06 per cent of these are active users of such accounts (carrying out operations at least once a month) (Moscow exchange, 2020). By comparison, in the United States, more than 50 per cent of the population are active clients of the financial market (Barclays Financial Market Outlook 2020, 2020);
- predominance of bank deposits in the structure of the population's savings. This is mostly due to the measures assumed by the Bank of Russia to strengthen the reliability and sustainability of the banking system. In addition, the public is less likely to trust to financial institutions than banks (fig. 4).
Financial market resilience cannot be enhanced without the removal of unprincipled participants undermining public confidence to the financial system as a whole. At present the level of trust to the activities of financial institutions is characterized by its heterogeneity. The main reasons are:
1. Insufficient financial knowledge of citizens (in terms of the level of financial literacy of the population, Russia ranked only 23 in the OECD ranking, based on an analysis of 26 countries in 2016) (OECD, 2020).
2. The low ethical level of the borrowers (38 per cent of citizens see nothing wrong with late repayment of loans, and 26 per cent believe that the loans should not be repaid at all).
The Bank of Russia is taking the following measures to remedy these deficiencies in the functioning of the financial market:
• development of proactive surveillance tools;
• stimulating the transformation of savings of individuals and entities into long-term investments;
• development of a competitive environment in the national financial market;
• implementation of a range of measures aimed at eliminating unfair behavior, improving the culture of financial transactions, increasing confidence in financial market operators and increasing the purity and transparency of market operations (Russian financial sector and financial instruments 2019 overview, 2020).
■ Deposits • Cash • Securities
Figure 4. Individual savings distribution in the Russian Federation in 2019, %
Source: Compiled by the authors using the following data of CBR. URL: https://www.cbr.ru/ (2020)
The penetration of digital innovations into various segments of the financial market has been a key trend in their development over recent years. Today digitization is a powerful incentive for the development and improvement of the financial market. Due to digitization, the safer and more convenient services emerge. Using digital technologies implies a change in quality in the services provided in the financial market. Digital technology increases the speed and volume of transactions. The use of digital technologies stimulates innovation in the financial sector (Vanova, 2018).
The Bank of Russia is taking the following measures to develop digital technologies:
• the customer protection system development;
• innovative financial supervision technology SupTech development;
• development and implementation of cybersecurity standards;
• digital financial infrastructure foundation;
• friendly environment for active technology development (incl. RegTech).
One of the most obvious modern trends is the increasing concentration on key segments of the Russian financial market. The intention to solve this problem is evidenced by a Decree of the President of the Russian Federation «On the main directions of the state policy on the development of competition», as well as the subsequent approval of the plan of activities of the Government of the Russian Federation, encouraging competition among financial market players.
One of the priority objectives of the Bank of Russia is to achieve a situation when effective data processing will create a competitive advantage rather than easy access to data (On the main directions of the State policy for the development of competition, 2017). Also, it should be noted that the modern regulatory approaches are based on balancing the requirements of financial market participants. This contributes to the sustainability of the market and does not create new risks. Therefore, one of the main conditions for improving the competitiveness of financial market participants is to reduce the regulatory burden (Pereverzeva, 2019).
Conclusion
In order to obtain maximum benefits from digital globalization processes, Russia needs to reduce costs
and commodity dependence through the development of industries oriented towards the efficient use of scientific and innovative potential. As a result, priority investments should be made in services and industries generating demand for the development of productive infrastructure abroad and within the country and provide the intensive economic growth. It is obvious that the real digital transformations of Russian and world's financial market predetermine new challenges, goals, and prospects of the financial sector development.
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© Aleksei V. Kuznetsov, Marina V. Skripnikova, 2020
Received 12.10.2020
Accepted 13.12.2020
