CC BY
4
UDC 338.486
DOI https://doi.Org/10.35546/kntu2078-4481.2023.4.52
V. YU. STEPANOV
Doctor of Sciences in Public Administration, Professor, Professor at the Department of Tourism Business Kharkiv State Academy of Culture ORCID: 0000-0001-5892-4239
INNOVATIVE OPPORTUNITIES OF FORESIGHT IN TOURISM ACTIVITIES
The article is devoted to a problem that is relevant today - the future development of tourism. The author substantiates the idea that the future of tourism requires the use of new innovative approaches. One of these innovative approaches is the use of foresight methodology.
It is shown that forecasting the development of tourism activity requires the use of new innovative mechanisms. Accordingly, an innovative approach will be to apply the foresight methodology, which will allow us to determine priorities for the development of tourism activities, taking into account market changes.
It is noted that the purpose of foresight is the probable development of the future of tourism activities, determining strategies for achieving the desired image. That is, foresight is necessary to create alternative destinations, manage the choice of technologies, strategically develop tourism activities, intensify staff training, motivate tourism systems to follow global trends, etc.
The methodology of tourism foresight is active in relation to future events. This means that in order to forecast tourism activity, it is advisable to assess the likely risks of certain events, project the current state, strengthen positive trends, increase the likelihood of desired events, prevent the strengthening of negative trends, etc.
It is concluded that the foresight methodology in tourism activities will ensure its competitiveness in both the local and global tourism markets. In addition, the use of foresight is gaining importance for the future prospects of tourism development and can influence the improvement of the state policy of tourism development in general.
Key words: tourism activity, innovative approach, foresight, analysis and forecasting, tourism market, achievement strategy.
В. Ю. СТЕПАНОВ
доктор наук з державного управлшня, професор, професор кафедри туристичного 6i3Hecy Харювська державна академiя культури ORCID: 0000-0001-5892-4239
1ННОВАЩЙШ МОЖЛИВОСТ1 ФОРСАЙТУ В ТУРИСТИЧН1Й Д1ЯЛЬНОСТ1
Стаття присвячена актуальнш на сьогоднштй день проблемi - майбутньому розвитку туристичног дгяль-Hocmi. Обтрунтовуеться думка, що майбутне туристичног дiяльностi потребуе застосування нових тновацш-них пiдхoдiв. Одним i3 таких iннoвацiйних пiдхoдiв е застосування методологи форсайту.
Показано, що в умовах коливання кон'юнктури та загострення конкуренцгг зростае неoбхiднicmь прогнозу-вання розвитку туристичног дiяльнocmi, що потребуе застосування нових тновацшних механiзмiв. Вiдпoвiднo до цього тновацшним тдходом стане застосування методологИ форсайту, що дозволить визначати прioриmеmи розвитку туристичног дiяльнocmi з урахуванням кон'юнктурних змт.
Зазначено, що метою форсайту е передбачення можливого майбутнього туристичног дiяльнocmi, створення його бажаного образу i визначення стратегш досягнення. Тобто форсайт неoбхiдний для oпmимiзацiг проце-су прийняття ршень, управлiння вибором технологш, створення альтернативних напрямiв для cmраmегiчнoгo розвитку туристичног дiяльнocmi, акmивiзацiг процесу навчання персоналу, мотивацИ трендам туристичних систем у глобальному вимiрi й т.
Меmoдoлoгiя форсайту туристичног дiяльнocmi е активною вiднocнo майбуттх подт. Це означае, що для прогнозування туристичног дiяльнocmi дощльно о^нювати ймoвiрнi ризики виникнення певних подт, проекту-вати поточний стан, посилювати пoзиmивнi тренди, збшьшувати ймoвiрнicmь бажаних подш, попереджувати посилення негативних mрендiв тощо.
Зроблено висновок, що меmoдoлoгiя форсайту в туристичнт дiяльнocmi забезпечить гг конкурентоспромож-нкть як на локальному, так i глобальному туристичних ринках. Крiм того, застосування форсайту набувае значення для подальших перспектив розвитку туристичног дiяльнocmi та може впливати на удосконалення державног полтики розвитку галузi туризму в цшому.
Ключовi слова: туристична дiяльнicmь, iннoвацiйний пiдхiд, форсайт, аналгз i прогнозування, туристичний ринок, cmраmегiя досягнення.
Problem statement
Tourism is the most dynamically developing industry and holds its position in terms of revenue. According to the Law of Ukraine "On Tourism" - "The state proclaims tourism as one of the priority areas of economic and cultural development and creates conditions for tourism activities..." [1]. At the current stage of development of the tourism industry in Ukraine, unique natural and recreational resources are concentrated. The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, in its order "On Approval of the Strategy for the Development of Tourism and Resorts for the Period up to 2026", noted that "the only way to solve systemic problems in the field of tourism and resorts is a strategically oriented state policy, the main task of which is to identify tourism as one of the main priorities of the state, to introduce economic and legal mechanisms for successful tourism business, investment mechanisms for the development of tourism infrastructure, information and marketing measures to create a tourist image. According to this, "the purpose of the Strategy is to create favourable conditions for intensifying the development of tourism and resorts in accordance with international quality standards and European values, transforming it into a highly profitable, globally integrated competitive sector that accelerates the socio-economic development of regions and the state as a whole, contributes to improving the quality of life of the population, harmonious development and consolidation of society, and popularization of Ukraine in the world." [2]. In particular, "the creation of a competitive national tourism product on the basis of systematic marketing activities aimed at clearly positioning different types of tourism products adapted to the requirements and expectations of consumers." [2]. At the same time, in the face of fluctuating market conditions, new innovative approaches are needed to forecast the scenario of tourism development. One of these innovative approaches is the use of foresight methodology. [7, 8].
Analysis of the latest research and publications
The assumptions of the possible future of tourism activities are considered in their various works by V. Antonova, O. Borysenko, V. Byrkovych, M. Bilynska, V. Vasylenko, V. Velychko, O. Davydova, S. Dombrovska, O. Kryukov, O. Lazor, N. Leonenko, S. Maystro, A. Okhrimenko, A. Pomaza-Ponomarenko, O. Rozmetova, V. Shvedun, O. Melnychenko, V. Yazin et al. Scientists note that in the context of an information array and a changing environment, the development of a forecast of tourism activity becomes relevant and important due to the ability to reduce uncertainty and increase the reliability of management decisions in the field of tourism [5, 7]. In such a situation, it is advisable to use innovative methods based on the knowledge, experience, and intuition of scientists, specialists, and analysts of the tourism industry in order to build an adequate picture of the future of tourism [10-12].
Formulation of the research objective. To consider the prospects for the development of possible future tourism activities using the innovative method of "Foresight".
Presentation of the main material of the study
Experts believe that the process of shaping tourism activity in the future requires innovative approaches. Accordingly, a new innovative approach would be to apply the foresight methodology [4, 6-8]. It should be noted that the foresight of tourism activities "is consistent with a strategic understanding of the need to take into account the mental, institutional, cultural, and informational impact on consumer expectations and economic interests of the subjects of relations in the tourism market." [8].
According to scientists A. A. Mazaraki, M. H. Boyko, A. H. Okhrimenko, "Global integration processes are characterized by high dynamism, affecting all sectors of the economy. This is especially true for the tourism system, which, being global in nature, is interconnected with the economic cycles of society. Therefore, in the current complex realities, a key factor for success and competitive advantage in the globalized world is long-term forecasting of trends and development scenarios - foresight studies that provide an opportunity to predict the future, taking into account the fundamentally new content, forms and structures of socio-economic development trends." [8]. In particular, this will affect the prioritization of tourism market development, taking into account market changes [4, 12]. In other words, to study the foresight of tourism activities, "it is necessary to involve as many experts from various fields as possible, primarily representatives of the authorities, business (restaurateurs, hotel owners, carriers), and tourism experts." [7].
The idea of foresight was formed through analysis and forecasting [13]. Forecasting involves developing a set of information about the future. The objective of the foresight methodology is to "understand future challenges, problems, opportunities, and uncertainties, formulate future priorities on this basis, and promote the accumulation of the necessary capacity and proactive measures for their implementation." [9]. It should be noted that "one of the components of foresight is forecasting." [8]. For example, studies [7, 8, 12, 14] state that foresight combines three components: first, a vision of the future; second, planning; and third, communication.
One of the first publications on the use of foresight was made by US researchers [17, 18]. At that time, the RAND Corporation (USA) applied the Delphi method. This method is based on the repeatability of the procedure, convergence of views, anonymity, structure, feedback, and statistical aggregation.
It is worth noting that the Delphi methodology is successfully used by the world's leading countries (Japan, the UK, Germany, France, South Korea, etc.). The essence of the foresight innovation method proves that its purpose is to predict the development of a possible future [3, 8, 13, 16, 17, 21, 22]. In addition to forecasting, the goals of using the foresight
method are to identify the necessary resources and accumulate information on the need to support research and innovation. Let us look at some definitions of the concept of "foresight".
Analysing the foresight methodology, M. Conway defines it as a systematic process associated with "a coordinated expert assessment of the strategic prospects for the development of society." [16]. According to M. Conway, it is "the basis for determining the levels of strategy, the format of scanning the external environment for making management decisions in the short and long term." [16]. At the same time, M. Conway noted two innovative strategies.
The first strategy is called the "Foresight Infused Strategy," which is a strategy developed using foresight approaches. It is based on people, processes, and cooperation as its main process [16]. It is a strategy that connects what is known about the past and present with the unknown future to create a stronger, future-ready strategy.
The second strategy is called "Futures Ready," which is a flexible strategy that allows an organization to respond quickly and effectively to the challenges and uncertainties of the future [16]. This is a strategy based on long-term thinking.
The definition of foresight was provided by American expert B. Martin. In his opinion, foresight is seen as "the long-term future of science, technology, economy and society with the aim of identifying areas of strategic research and technologies that can bring the greatest economic and social benefits." [20].
The scientific position on the essence of corporate foresight as a forecasting method for implementing innovations in a company with the involvement of stakeholders is substantiated by scientists L. Bakker and L. Johanson [15]. In addition, some researchers [19] note that the results of foresight are options for a possible future for different time periods. In particular, the foresight study made it possible to identify and substantiate the method that is the opposite of foresight - the hindsight. That is, an assessment of projects that did not achieve their goals and an analysis of the reasons for their failure [9, 12, 13].
One of the proofs of the relevance and importance of foresight on a global scale was the creation of the European Foresight Platform (EFP) in early 2010. It partially continued the activities of the former European Commission's Sixth Framework Program (FP6) projects "European Foresight Monitoring Platform" (EFMN) and FORLEARN [21]. In particular, the EFP was aimed at creating a global network that brings together different communities and individual professionals to share knowledge about foresight, forecasting, and other methods of research aimed at the future [3, 6, 8].
EFMN, under the 7th Framework Program for the Social Sciences and Humanities, is currently providing funds to continue EFP's activities in important networking events in Europe and beyond. This joint work on coordination and support of the European Foresight Platform - Support for Future Solutions is aimed at consolidating the database of information and knowledge about foresight in Europe and internationally [23].
In other words, foresight is necessary for the following: optimizing the decision-making process; managing the choice of technologies; creating alternative directions for strategic development; intensifying the process of staff training; motivating changes that meet the trends of tourism systems in the global dimension, etc.
In the format of the foresight methodology, researchers identify three main functions: diagnostics; forecast; determination of prospects and roadmap. Foresight methods are conventionally divided into 3 groups: expert opinion methods that focus on building interpersonal partnerships; modelling and morphological analysis that involve the use of analytical tools that are becoming increasingly computerized; scanning (monitoring) and trend extrapolation that predict the degree of the future determined by the conditions of the moment [7-10, 12].
Unlike traditional forecasting, foresight technology is proactive with respect to future events. This means that forecasting requires more than just assessing the likely risks of certain events. In particular, to project the current state in such a way as to strengthen positive trends, increase the likelihood of desired events, and prevent the strengthening of negative trends [6-8].
Conclusions
One of the essential components of foresight technologies is the identification of vectors of systemic changes in the future. The emergence of foresight as a method of researching tourism activities is due to increased competition in the tourism market and limited government funding for tourism.
Foresight of tourism activities is considered as a strategic analysis of innovative research methods to determine the desired activities and possible future in the field of tourism. The foresight strategy is an approach that connects what is known about the past and present to create a strategy for future activities. Tourism foresight is characterized by high technology, a combination of different research methods, and the development of various areas of tourism activity to determine future long-term tourism trends.
The foresight methodology for tourism activities will ensure its competitiveness in both local and global tourism markets. The need for foresight studies of tourism activity is based, first of all, on the innovative capabilities of this methodology. Secondly, on the features of national tourism and the need for its multidimensional research. Thirdly, the use of foresight is gaining importance for the future prospects of tourism development and affects the improvement of the state policy of tourism development in general, which requires further research.
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