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УДК 336
Juraev E. S.
The Teacher of the Department Economics
Khamidov G'ofurjon student
Namangan Engineering Construction Institute
City Namangan, Uzbekistan
INFLATION RISK
Abstract: In this article, the rise in the overall price level of inflation, and, more accurately, the increase in the circulation of the money supply relative to the commodity turnover, will lead to the devaluation of the monetary unit, which in turn will increase the price of products. However, this statement cannot be considered a complete and complete interpretation of inflation. Although inflation is on the rise in prices, it is notjust a monetary phenomenon. In other words, inflation is a delicate socio-economic process that results from the imbalance in the economy.
Key words: risk, tax, indicators, inflation, economy.
We face inflation almost everywhere. Inflation as an economic phenomenon has long existed. Many economists believe that its emergence coincided with the emergence of money.
Historically, the term "inflation" (from inflatio meaning "swelling, swelling") was first used in the period of the Civil War in North America between 1861 and 1865, when paper and money were used. In the 19th century the term used in both England and France. From the 20th century, that is, after the end of the First World War, the term began to be widely used in the Economic Literature.
There are several definitions of the term inflation. For an ordinary person who is far from the scientific world and economic terminology, inflation is primarily a rise in prices.
Most economists understand that inflation undermines the imbalance between supply and demand, and the rise in prices under the influence of other proportions in the economy. However, this does not mean that all inflation will rise during the inflation period. Certain goods may rise significantly, while prices for some products will remain stable, and prices for other types of goods and services may vary.
A brief description of inflation is an increase in the overall price level, and, more accurately, an increase in the circulation of the money supply in relation to the commodity circulation, which causes the monetary unit to devalue and, in turn, increase the prices of products. However, this statement cannot be considered a complete and complete interpretation of inflation. Although inflation is on the rise in prices, it is not just a monetary phenomenon. In other words, inflation is a delicate socio-economic process that results from the imbalance in the economy.
What are the consequences of inflation?
Today's economists as the main drivers of inflation:
1. Disproportionality.
2. Inflation risky investments.
3. Import inflation.
4. Inflation expectations.
A different classification of the causes of inflation used by most Western economists is the division of inflation into supply and demand components.
Demand inflation - it is a violation of supply and demand by supply. In other words, in this case there is an increase in state orders (for example, military), increase in working hours and output volumes based on demand in the manufacturing sector, as well as increasing the purchasing power of the population (salary increases). is. As a result, the amount of money in circulation exceeds the standard.
Cost inflation - production costs as a result of rising prices. These may be caused by non-market prices, economic and financial policies of the country, rising prices for raw materials and so on.
One of the most "severe" points of inflation is the fact that the tendency for price increases does not increase steadily. As an example, some prices may be rising at a rapid pace, with some being moderate and others not rising at all. The price index is an indicator that shows whether inflation is present or not.
Price Index - this is the price over time ratios that characterize each other.
If you look at history, for example, say, inflation is formed by emergency situations (for example, during wartime). Recently, it has become a "chronic disease" in many countries of the world. Economists say that for the last 30 years, developed countries have figuratively entered the "age of inflation." At present, inflation is estimated at 2-3% as normal in a market economy.
There is a description of various inflation criteria (speed, expectation and openness, reasons for occurrence, etc.).
For an ordinary person, the distribution of the rate of growth in daily life will be much closer and significant.
The modern economic literature takes into account three main types of inflation, taking into account the rate of inflation:
- moderate or reptile (annual growth rate does not exceed 10%);
- high rate (annual growth rate from 10% to 200%);
- hyperinflation (over 200% per year).
In other sources, in addition to the above, the concept of normal inflation (annual growth rate does not exceed 2-3%).
Now, let's focus on inflation. The Consumer Price Index is the main indicator in the experiment.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) - it calculates the change in the total price of goods and services purchased by the average consumer, while also calculating the change in the total cost over time with the same amount of goods and services consumed by the population.
The value of the current set of goods and
Consumer Price __services_
Index Cost of the set of goods and services
recorded during the base period
The simplified scheme presented here will help us to understand the essence of the calculation. This way, each family can assess their own "personal" inflation. The basis for this is to create a list of goods and services that families can purchase. The next step is to calculate the cost of specific goods and services purchased in natural terms. Then we can compare the prices of the current period with the prices of the initial period recorded as the basis. We determine our "personal" family inflation by dividing the current year's prices by the prices calculated as the basis.
It is important to note that the official news provided by the official bodies and the personal inflation that we estimate are very different in the media news. While the official data show the general economic growth trends in the country, the "personal" inflation characterizes the situation in the selected family.
In order to average the price variation in the consumer market, statistical agencies perform two types of surveillance: household consumption expenditures and the registration of consumer prices. Note that these two types of sampling observations meet the requirements of international statistical standards.
Representatives of the statistical body suggest that they (simply, single-parent families) fill out a household questionnaire to track household expenses. The information collected is then summarized and distributed to the population as a whole. In other words, it is assumed that the average household will spend the same amount on household expenditures under surveillance.
Once again, this observation methodology is consistent with generally recognized and international standards. What this means is that this method of observation is generally used by many developed countries, such as the European countries and the CIS. Also, the cost may be used as an alternative method of calculating national account information or retail information and services, but the overall nature of the issue remains the same.
Subsequently, based on the household expenditure data, the total expenditures of the population are calculated for each commodity and service, and a weighting system is created to calculate the indices. The formulated weight system uses the aforementioned modified Laspeyres formula. Since this is the process of calculating the INI, weighing the indicators of the natural form in the process of weighing and making the problem much easier.
Then we will focus on the methodology of the average price calculation in the calculation of indices. Here's a handbook on Consumer Price Index: Theory and Practice (International Monetary Fund, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Eurostat, European Economic Bureau). The documents of the Commission (UNECE), the World Bank and the International Labor Organization (ILO) are the basis of these documents (English language 2004 and Russian version 2007).
All of this may seem easy. But at first glance it seems. We often hear phrases like, "Where did the statistics come from?", "I'm buying at a much higher price," and so on. The answer is simple, the statistics use average prices in calculations. This implies not only high prices, but also low cost prices.
The calculation of indices is calculated using the Laspeyres formula, which is modified by taking into account the structure of consumption expenditures of households and changes in average weighted prices. Periodicity of calculations is monthly. In addition to the price factor (ie actual change in prices for goods and services), CPI calculations are also influenced by specific weights of certain goods and services. The statistics thus average the consumer price index for goods and services and their behavior across the country.
As for the calculation methodology, the internal statistics are still in place and are constantly improving the mechanism for the most objective reflection of the inflation processes taking place in the country.
In 2017, inflation was 14.4%, which is much higher than in other CIS countries:
Consumer Price Index in some CIS countries in December 2017 *
(%, December 2016)
Belarus 1Û4,e
Qozogiston 107,1
Qlrg liistcm 103,7
Rasslya 102,5
TojiKiston 106,7
Uk ralna 113,7
O'zbekiston 114,4
* According to the official statistics of the respective countries
Inflation is almost always a negative factor for any population in the country (traders in the markets, except those who are interested). However, not everything is as bad as it seems at first glance. A sharp drop in inflation also has its drawbacks. The low inflation rate, as it has been at very high levels, is a threat to the economy of the country. What does this reflect? If the price does not rise, the demand of the population will decline and they will buy less because prices will remain the same the next day. As a result, savings are more profitable than spending money. In addition, many organizations face difficulties in falling prices, while the economic model of organizations that have become accustomed to "inflationary nutrition" loses its effectiveness. Therefore, too low inflation is dangerous because it can "cool" the economy. The extremely high inflation rate, especially for those with long-term loans at high interest rates, poses a serious challenge. If the demand and prices for their products do not rise, the problem of repayment of credit may become
more and more difficult every day.
In this case, rising prices will not only increase domestic demand, but also stimulate investment, increase production capacity, and reduce unemployment. That is why some countries allow slightly higher inflation to stimulate the economy.
At the same time, very quickly, and most importantly, unpredictable price increases, disruption of socio-economic stability, and the well-known consequences for all of us.
Therefore, economists in developed countries are more concerned about real economic plans that allow them to make forecasts than inflation.
Liberalization of foreign exchange policy is an integral part of the reforms carried out in our country, and we are not the first and the last one to face the challenges of this period. It's too early to draw conclusions. The need for currency reform has long been established, and much work remains to be done.
Reference:
1. E.S. Juraev. World experience in small business lending. - Russia, Высшая школа, 2017.
2. E.S. Juraev. Foreign experience in conducting financial policies for the development of small business. - Russia, Экономика и социум, 2018.
3. E.S. Juraev and U.A.Xolmirzayev. Profits of housekeeping and its development. TRANS Asian Research Journals. Vol 8, Issue 4, April 2019.
4. www.stat.uz
5. www.namstat.uz
