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Gaybullaev Feruz Hamidovich, Candidate (PhD) of Economics, doctoral degree student of the Institute of Forecasting and Macroeconomic Research at the Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Uzbekistan
E-mail: f.gaybullaev2@ifmr.uz
INDICATORS OF STRATEGIC PLANNING IN THE BRANCHES OF REAL SECTOR OF ECONOMY OF THE REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN
Abstract. The article discusses the issues of introduction of strategic planning indicators for the branches of the real sector of economy of the Republic of Uzbekistan as targets and guidelines that allow to develop the parameters of decisions to be made, with their reflection in the documents related to development of branches of the real sector of economy.
Keywords: strategic planning, real sector of economy, targets, long-term development strategy, long-term development indicators, sustainable development indicators, economic growth.
Strategic planning in the activities of branches of cators on the implementation and introduction in
the real sector of economy will be difficult to implement without setting clear targets and benchmarks, which parameters are indicated in decisions made and documents related to development of a particular sector of the economy. Macroeconomic development with indicators and dynamics should be aimed at developing several options of prospect of a particular industry in the real sector of economy, to act as key indicators of development in general.
For successful implementation of strategic planning by the socio-economic system, the key condition is availability of a standardized set of quantitative and qualitative indicators characterizing the external and internal environment of a particular branch in the real sector (economic situation in the world, country, branches of the real sector of economy, performance indicators of economic entities, production structure, level of technical, technological and innovative development, demographic and environmental situation, the quality of social security of population, etc.).
Analysis of the above indicators will allow to determine the trends based on the current situation and changes, assess the level of results achieved, the effectiveness of positive or negative impact of indi-
practical activity of programs and projects provided for by the general development strategy.
In this regard, a list of indicators is laid down in each long-term prospective development plan, program, development strategy for a particular branch of the real sector of economy. In addition to macro-economic indicators, strategic planning documents include a large number of more private target indicators characterizing certain aspects of the work of economic management bodies, the dynamics of changes in the socio-economic system of branch.
Unlike medium-term and annual indicative plans, strategic planning should include a minimum set of predictable indicators that determine the goals and framework conditions for long term future.
Thus, indicators of long-term development should reflect not only quantitative, but, above all, qualitative changes in the economy, necessary to achieve the targets.
Among the mandatory ones, indicators should be used which allow to have an objective picture of progress in solving the most actual problems and challenges facing the country.
When substantiating targets and indicators of long-term development, it is necessary to proceed
from the main strategic objective - creating modern highly competitive economy resistant to the instability ofworld development and ensuring all the necessary prerequisites for a full-scale and safe life of the country's population. According to key quality indicators, Uzbekistan should ensure the global average quality of life standards by 2030, and by 2050 enter in the category of advanced developing countries in the world.
It is considered inadvisable to use gross national income per capita (GNI pc) as the main one, moreover as the only target, e.g. setting the task of entering by 2030 in the number of developing countries of the world with income level per capita above average one [1].
The Republic of Uzbekistan was one of the few countries in the world, which GDP growth rate since the 2000's ranged from 5-6% and above. However, the broad masses of population were not able to take advantage of the fruits of this growth. In the past 10 years, the level of labor migration has grown significantly, and efforts are being taken today to achieve progress in diversifying the economy and overcoming its raw-material orientation, as well as in increasing the level of export dynamics.
Currently, all actions are being taken to make the Republic enter by 2030 into the category of highly profitable developing countries of the world [2]. So, the long-term programs and strategies adopted in recent years in Europe, China, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and other countries, focus not on GDP, which is used there as a technical, estimate indicator, but rather on environmental, structural, social and technological indicators, reflecting not the rates, but the quality of economic growth and its inclusiveness.
In the context of globalization, not only the behavior of socio-economic indicators, but also the changing role and place of the country on the world stage is of key importance. Long-term targets along with GDP should be determined by both quantita-
tive and qualitative indicators, showing the level of reduction of inequality in incomes of the population, is ability to access modern medical and educational services, the degree of achievement of ecological balance, the indexes of attractiveness of investment climate, liberalization, global competitiveness and etc.
Sufficiently relevant for Uzbekistan is the problem of reducing the burden on natural capital, and the stability of economic growth in the long term future depends on successful solving of this problem. Assessing the progress in moving in this direction requires the use of an indicator of net adjusted savings and a number of other indicators new to our statistics. The most important factor in the long-term development strategy is formation of the social structure of society.
When forming a set of indicators of qualitative changes in the economy, we should focus primarily on the existing indicators of the quality of state institutions, investment attractiveness, etc. used in international practice.
The most important qualitative characteristics of economic growth are the contribution of efficiency factors to the growth of economic dynamics, indicators of diversification of the economy and export structure, decrease in energy intensity of the economy, growth in labor productivity, growth in the share of population incomes in the structure of GDP, growth in the quality of state institutions, human capital, improvement of the investment climate and business Wednesday.
Thus, for example, Uzbekistan already has a system of quarterly assessment of the level of modernization and diversification of the economy development of the real sector sectors in accordance with the adopted Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers No. 117 dated 20 April 2012, according to the table [3].
Thus, the indicators of strategic planning in the branches of the real sector of economy should include a minimum set of predicted indicators.
Table 1. - Indicators of the level of modernization and diversification of economy development of real sector branches
No. Description of indicator Unit Indicator calculation method Quality assessment of indicator Responsible authority
1. Diversification of industries % The ratio of value added of industrial products to the gross output of industrial products 1 - critical level (below 20%) 2 - moderate level (20 to 45%) 3 - mean level (45% to 60%) 4 - high level (above 60%) State Statistic Committee
2. Investments in modernization, technical and process retooling of enterprises % Growth rate of investments aimed at technical and technological renovation of production, compared to the same period of the previous year 1 - critical level (increase less than 4%) 2 - moderate level (4% to 10%) 3 - mean level (10% to 15%) 4 - high level (above 15%) State Statistic Committee
3. Labor productivity in industry % Ratio of production in comparable prices to the number of employees of the reporting period, compared to the corresponding period of previous year 1 - low level (average annual growth less than 2%) 2 - moderate level (average annual growth in the range of 2% -3.5%) 3 - average level (average annual growth in the range of 3.5% -4.5%) 4 - high level (average annual growth of over 4.5%) State Statistic Committee
4. Portion of export in GRP % Exported products to GRP ratio 1 - low level (below 15%) 2 - moderate level (15% to 30%) 3 - mean level (30% to 45%) 4 - high level (lower 45%) State Statistic Committee
preciation, etc. existing and used in international practice.
In (Table 2) below, subject to these requirements, as a strategic planning, we can draw up a basic set of indicators that can be used for branches of the real sector of economy [4].
Indicators of strategic planning should reflect not only quantitative, but primarily qualitative changes in the economy necessary to achieve targets. Among the mandatory ones, indicators should be used allowing to have an objective picture of progress in solving the most urgent problems and challenges facing the country. When forming a set of indicators of qualitative changes in the economy, one should focus primarily on the indicators of performance of state institutions, investment ap-
Table 2.- Key indicators of development of the branches of real sector of economy
No. Indicators Indicator calculation methodology with the unit of measurement in% for reporting periods (actual) and the current year (estimate)
1 2 3
I. Key indicators characterizing the industrial production growth behavior
1. Volume index (VI) of branches of the real sector of economy and GVA by business areas/sectors Compared to previous year in comparable prices
2. Growth rates of production of the branches of the real sector of economy
3. Growth rates of production of the processing industry
4. Growth rates of production consumer goods
II. Structural changes
5. Portion of gross value added (GVA) of industry (business sectors) in GDP ratio of GVA of industry (business sectors) to GDP
6. Portion of processing industries in industrial production ratio of processing industries production volume to production volume of the real sectors of economy
7. Portion of consumer goods in industrial production
8. Portion of high-technology products in production structure
III. Indicators of products competitiveness in the real sector of economy
9. Availability of produced goods in the domestic market difference of price indices for products of business sectors and product prices for the industry in whole
10. Portion of export in production volume for the industry and business sectors ratio of products exportation to production volume of the industry (business sectors)
IV. Effectiveness of technology retooling and modernization of fixed assets, introduction of new technologies
11. Growth rates in the basic capital of industry (business sectors) % to the previous year in comparable prices
12. Portion of investments in basic capital of industry in the total volume of investments in fixed capital in the Republic ratio of investments in basic capital of industry to the total volume of investments in fixed assets in the Republic
13. Portion of investments in the basic capital of business sectors in the total volume investments in the basic capital of industry ratio of investments in basic capital of foreign economic activity to the total volume of investments in basic capital of industry
14. Level of wear-and-tear of machinery and equipment ratio of the amount of depreciation at the end of the year to the initial cost of machinery and equipment
1 2 3
15. Level of renovation of machinery and equipment ratio of the amount of received machinery and equipment for reporting period to the balance of initial cost of machinery and equipment at the end of year
16. Labor productivity output per employee in value terms at comparable prices to the previous year
17. Materials-output ratio of industry (business sectors) ratio of costs of raw materials to the volume of output
18. Energy-output ratio of industry (business sectors) ratio of fuel and electricity costs to the volume of production
V. Introduction of innovation technologies and jroduction of innovative products
19. Innovation activity portion of enterprises implementing innovations in the overall number of enterprises
20. Investments in technology innovations expenses for technology innovations million Uzbek Soums
Source: Prepared by the author on the basis of the materials prepared by the Institute of Forecasting and Macroeconomic Research at the Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Uzbekistan
Thus, development of strategic planning indicators should be based on the prerequisites of achieving the established forecast parameters, as well as practical feasibility. Based on this, it is recommended to focus on the following groups of actions:
- actions for leveling the influence of internal restrictions and external risks and threats, which should be directed to alternative development ways and would reduce the influence of constraining factors and use additional reserves;
- actions to achieve the predicted parameters of the factors that determine each predicted indicator, which will allow to fully utilize the activation mechanisms of each group of factors;
- actions to achieve the parameters of industry development programs, localization programs and other programs. These measures should be aimed at ensuring continuous monitoring of implementation of approved programs and timely elimination of barriers that impede their effective implementation;
- additional actions to overcome the fundamental problems of development of the economy and business areas/sectors aimed at overcoming systemic barriers and obstacles that have a negative impact on the economy as a whole. As a rule, these are long-term measures;
- additional actions aimed at solving other current problems.
Determination of the actions for development of business areas/sectors should also be based on such development objectives as:
- acceleration of technological modernization and diversification of the economy, aimed at the rapid development of high-technology processing industries;
- deepening the processing of raw materials;
- expansion of production localization and import substitution, expansion of inter-sectoral cooperation.
References:
1. This is also evidenced by world experience. The example ofVenezuela can be taken. With a gross national income per capita of $11.7 thousand in 2016, the country was within the category of highly profitable developing countries of the world (with income above average) with an average evaluation of this indicator in this category of countries at $7.1 thousand. However, the average salary of employees during this period was about $50, and by the beginning of 2019, it had dropped to $20. Similar conclusions can be drawn when analyzing the GNI pc behavior for Cuba, which is also in the number ofhighly profitable developing countries.
2. In accordance with the data of the World Bank, the GNI pc value for Uzbekistan in 2017 amounted to $2 thousand, while by 2030 the lower limit of the category of developing countries with income level above average will rise to $6-7 thousand per capita, and the growth of this indicator in the next 10-11 years should be in 3 to 3.2 times.
3. The Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan dated 20 April 2012 No. 117 "On approval of the system of quarterly evaluation of indicators of the state of business environment and the level of socio-economic development in the Republic of Karakalpakstan, the regions and the city of Tashkent".
4. The materials prepared in the process ofdeveloping the methodological basics for a long-term development strategy by the Institute for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Research at the Ministry of Economy and Industry of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Tashkent, 2019.
