CC BY
32UDC 656.7.072 (045) DOI: https://doi.org/10.46783/smart-scm/2020-4-1
JEL Classification: M12, M21. Received: 12 December 2020
Bugayko D.O. PhD in Economics, Associate Professor, Acting Director International Cooperation and Education Institute, Instructor of ICAO Institute of National Aviation University (Ukraine)
ORCID - 0000-0001-9901-4792 Researcher ID -Scopus author id: -
Shevchenko O.R. PhD in Economics, Director of International Cooperation and Education Institute, National Aviation University (Ukraine)
ORCID -Researcher ID -Scopus author id: -
INDICATORS OF AVIATION TRANSPORT SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT SAFETY
Dmytro Bugayko, Olha Shevchenko "Indicators of air transport sustainable development". World leaders gathered at the United Nations (UN) and adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. It is a plan of action aimed at achieving global sustainable development in economic, social and environmental areas, which ensures that no UN member state is left behind. The 17 sustainable development goals on the 2030 Agenda can be used as benchmarks for the coordinated development of UN member states. Aviation safety is an important component of the concept of general national security, the system of personal security, ecological and public safety and transport safety from external and internal threats. Maintaining an acceptable level of national aviation safety is a priority for the industry. The aviation transport is a part of the transport complex of Ukraine, which is an important component in the structure of the national economy and a link between all components of economic security to ensure the basic conditions of life and development of the state and society. The assessment of economic, technological, safety, social and ecological hazards is an integral part of all the logical blocks of the structural and functional scheme of strategic management of aviation safety in terms of sustainable development of the national economy. The task of the article is to determine and substantiate the main indicators of economic and technological development, safety, social and environmental components of air transport and assess their level. In the article the authors propose and present the dynamics in the period from 2010 to 2020 of 29 indicators of sustainable development of air transport of Ukraine, such us share of aviation transport in the gross value added (transport and communications); level of investment in aviation transport; level of export services of air transport; level of import services of aviation transport; level of shadowing of aviation transport; coefficient of manufacturability of aviation transport; capital utilization coefficient; level of shadow capital load; level of use of passenger capacity of aircraft and helicopters; level of renewal of fixed assets; cargo transport capacity of GDP by aviation transport; passenger transport capacity of GDP by aviation transport; average distance of cargo aviation transportation; average distance of passenger aviation transportation; ratio of domestic and international aviation transportation; catastrophes, accidents, serious coefficients for regular commercial/irregular commercial/non-commercial flights and execution of
aviation works/training flights; level of wages in the production of aviation transport; level of employment in air transport; coefficient of population mobility; level of official GVA created by shadow wages; level of shadow employment; level of CO2 emissions of aviation transport of Ukraine to GDP; level of emissions of pollutants into the atmosphere; level of environmental costs of aviation transport. Authors determine their threshold and optimal values. Indicators are given in groups in the above areas. Indicators are divided into stimulants (indicators that contribute to the sustainable development of air transport and the national economy) and disincentives (indicators that hinder the sustainable development of air transport and the national economy). The solution of this problem will make it possible to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the current state of air transport in Ukraine on the basis of a systematic approach.
Keywords: aviation transport, aviation safety, hazards, disincentives indicators, risks, stimulants indicators, sustainable development.
Дмитро Бугайко, Ольга Шевченко "Показники сталого розвитку повтряного транспорту". Ceimoei л'дери з'1брались в Орган'вацУУ Об'еднаних Нацй (ООН) та прийняли Порядок денний сталого розвитку до 2030 року. Це план diй, спрямований на досягнення глобального сталого розвитку в економiчнiй, соцiальнiй та еколог'1чн'1й сферах, який гарантуе, що жодна держава-член ООН не залишиться позаду. 17 цлей сталого розвитку, викладених у Повстц дня на 2030 рiк, можуть бути використан як ор '!ентири для скоординованого розвитку держав-член'1в ООН. Безпека ав'шцУУ е важливою складовою концепцп загальноУ нац'юнально'У безпеки, системи особистоУ безпеки, еколог'!чно)' та громадськоУ безпеки та безпеки транспорту вiд зовнiшнiх та внутр'шн'к загроз. Пiдтримання прийнятного рiвня нац'юнально'У авiацiйно'У безпеки е проритетом для галуз'1. Авiацiйний транспорт е частиною транспортного комплексу УкраУни та важливою складовою в структурi економки краУни та сполучною ланкою м'ж уама складовими економ!чноУ безпеки для забезпечення основних умов життя та розвитку держави та суспльства. О^нка економ'чних, технолог'чних, соц'альних та еколог'чних загроз е нев'д'емною частиною вах лог'чних блок!в структурно-функ^ональноУ схеми стратег'много управл!ння ав'юцшною безпекою з точки зору сталого розвитку нацональноУ економки. Завдання статтi - визначити та обфунтувати основнi ндикатори економiчного та технолог'1чного розвитку, безпеки, соц 'юльних та еколог'чних складових повтряного транспорту та о^нити Ух р'1вень. У статтi автори пропонують та представляють динам'ку за перод з 2010 по 2020 роки 29 показник'в сталого розвитку повтряного транспорту УкраУни, визначають Ух порогов'1 та оптимальн значення. Показники наводяться групами у вищезазначених областях. Показники под'тяються на стимулятори (показники, що сприяють сталому розвитку повтряного транспорту та нацональноУ економки) та де стимулятори (показники, що заважають сталому розвитку повтряного транспорту та нац 'юнально'У економки). Виршення це проблеми надасть можлив'1сть провести комплексну о^нку сучасного стану повтряного транспорту в УкраУн '1 на основi системного пдходу.
Кпючов'1 слова: авiацiйний транспорт, безпека aBia^T, загрози, шдикатори стимулятори, ризики, Ыдикатори дестимулятори.
Дмитрий Бугайко, Ольга Шевченко "Показатели устойчивого развития воздушного транспорта". Мировые лидеры собрались в Организации Объединенных Наций (ООН) и приняли Повестку дня устойчивого развития до 2030 года. Это план действий, направленный на достижение глобального устойчивого развития в экономической, социальной и экологической сферах, который гарантирует, что ни одно государство-член ООН не останется позади. 17 целей устойчивого развития, изложенных в Повестке дня к 2030 году, могут быть использованы в качестве ориентиров для скоординированного развития государств-членов ООН. Безопасность авиации является важной составляющей концепции общей национальной безопасности, системы личной безопасности, экологической и общественной безопасности и безопасности транспорта от внешних и внутренних угроз. Поддержание приемлемого уровня национальной авиационной безопасности является приоритетом для отрасли. Авиационный транспорт является частью транспортного комплекса Украины и важной составляющей в структуре экономики страны и связующим звеном
между всеми составляющими экономической безопасности для обеспечения основных условий жизни и развития государства и общества. Оценка экономических, технологических, социальных и экологических угроз является неотъемлемой частью всех логических блоков структурно-функциональной схемы стратегического управления авиационной безопасностью с точки зрения устойчивого развития национальной экономики. Задача статьи - определить и обосновать основные показатели экономического и технологического развития, безопасности, социальных и экологических составляющих воздушного транспорта и оценить их уровень. В статье авторы предлагают и представляют динамику за период с 2010 по 2020 годы 29 показателей устойчивого развития воздушного транспорта Украины, определяют их пороговые и оптимальные значения. Показатели приводятся группами в вышеупомянутых областях. Показатели делятся на стимуляторы (показатели, способствующие устойчивому развитию воздушного транспорта и национальной экономики) и дестимуляторы (показатели, мешающие устойчивому развитию воздушного транспорта и национальной экономики). Решение этой проблемы позволит провести комплексную оценку современного состояния воздушного транспорта в Украине на основе системного подхода.
Ключевые слова: авиационный транспорт, безопасность авиации, угрозы, индикаторы стимуляторы, риски, индикаторы дестимуляторы.
1. Introduction. The 17 sustainable development goals on the 2030 Agenda can be used as benchmarks for the coordinated development of UN member states [1]. The aviation industry is an open system that is affected by a wide range of ecological, technical, natural, human and economic hazards. For its part, it itself is a generator of significant threats to the environment. Therefore, we cannot imagine the aviation industry outside the search for answers to the latest global challenges. The main challenges for aviation are to develop air transportations at the national, regional and global levels, in order to ensure economic, social and environmental priorities [2, 3].
Figure 1 shows a Structure of Strategic Management of Aviation Transport in the conditions of sustainable development of national economy.
The article is a logical continuation of a number of publications devoted to the introduction of a systematic approach to determining the level of sustainable development and development of advanced risk management system for air transport safety management of Ukrainian scientists D. Bugayko [4 - 6], YM Kharazishvili [4 - 7], A. Antonova [6], M. Hryhorak [5], Poland (Z. Zamiar [5 - 6]) and other countries. Statistical data for the calculation of indicators of sustainable development of aviation
transport are taken from the following statistical sources of the State Statistics Service [8], Ministry of Infrastructure [9], the Civil Aviation Authorities [10] and National Bureau for the Investigation of Aviation Accidents and Incidents with Civil Aircraft of Ukraine [11-17].
2. The purpose of the article is to determine and substantiate the main indicators of economic and technological development, social and environmental components of air transport and assess their level. Indicators are given in groups in the above areas. Indicators are divided into stimulants (indicators that contribute to the sustainable development of air transport and the national economy) and disincentives (indicators that hinder the sustainable development of air transport and the national economy). The solution of this problem will make it possible to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the current state of air transport in Ukraine on the basis of a systematic approach.
3. Indicators of sustainable development of air transport.
3.1. Economic and technological development of aviation transport
3.1.1. Economic development of aviation transport
(1S). The share of aviation transport in the gross value added (transport and
communications), %. This indicator is a stimulant. The growing share of aviation transport in the transport and
communications indicates the development of population mobility and aviation logistics. The indicator is a catalyst for the tourism sphere, industry, services.
Figure 1. Structure of Strategic Management of Aviation Transport in the conditions of sustainable development of national economy.
Source: Bugayko D.O., Kharazishvili Yu.M. Theoretical bases of aviation branch strategic safety management in the context of maintenance of sustainable development of national economy. Bulletin of Economic Science of Ukraine. 2020. № 1 (38). Pp. 166-175. Institute of Industrial Economics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Academy of Economic Sciences of Ukraine. doi: https://doi.org/10.37405/1729-7206.2020.1(38).166-175 10
[3].
(2S). The level of investment in aviation transport, share of air transport in the transport and communications, %. This indicator is a stimulant. Air transport is a hightech mode of transport that requires significant investment, primarily for the renewal of the modern fleet of aircraft and the development of air transport. This indicator is especially important during the crisis related to the COVID 19 coronavirus pandemic.
(3S). Level of export services of aviation transport, % of total exports of transport services. This indicator is a stimulant. The growth of air transport export services is a guarantee of synergistic growth of the export potential of the national economy, primarily such as tourism, international logistics and supply-chain management. The indicator promotes the development of population
mobility and expansion of domestic goods in foreign markets.
(4D). Level of import services of aviation transport, % of total import of transport services. This indicator is disincentive. The growth of imported air transport services actually increases the level of entry of foreign goods into the domestic market and the growth of the national level of imported services. On the other hand, it has hidden positive aspects, such as the development of national tourism and services in the country. Thus, the classical attitude to this indicator, as a one hundred percent distimulator, is seen as somewhat biased, but entitled to life.
Table 1. Dynamics of indicators of air transport economic development in the period from 2010 to 2020, their threshold and optimal values._
1-S 2-S 3-S 4-D 5-D
Share of aviation The level of Level of export Level of import Level of
transport in the investment in services of services of shadowing of
gross value aviation aviation aviation aviation
added, % transport, % transport, % transport, % transport, %
2010 2,0776 18,3535 15,0849 37,9686 1,26
2011 2,4491 16,9168 16,5847 43,0896 8,62
2012 2,7161 13,4484 17,7067 37,1248 12,59
2013 2,4436 10,0576 16,0511 37,4934 15,04
2014 2,5658 7,3576 17,5562 31,3140 23,42
2015 2,6871 8,1554 16,2189 40,4835 22,56
2016 3,5170 5,1096 16,6454 36,1331 31,28
2017 4,4651 6,9949 18,6265 37,2936 32,91
2018 5,6342 5,4952 20,8772 47,4959 38,38
2019 6,8826 4,3890 18,4932 45,5090 41,29
2020 4,3698 5,0256 18,6567 44,4444 41,01
Lower threshold 5 11,60 19 36 25
The lower optimal 6,6 12,8 24,5 29 15
The top optimal 8,5 14,6 39,5 16 10
Upper threshold 10,8 17,7 48,6 10,8 5
Ratioing factor 11 20 50 50 50
(5D). Level of shadowing of aviation transport, % of official gross value added. This indicator is disincentive. Unfortunately, the shadowing phenomena cause undeniable damage to the national financial system and require the development of adequate measures to counteract this negative phenomenon.
The dynamics of indicators of economic development of air transport in the period from 2010 to 2020, as well as their threshold and optimal values are shown in Table 1.
3.1.2. Technological development of (1S). Coefficient of manufacturability of
aviation transport aviation transport. This indicator is a stimulant.
The growth of manufacturability is the key to improving operational efficiency.
(2S). Capital utilization coefficient. This indicator is a stimulant. The loading of capital is the basis for the development of new activities of air transport, updating its material and technical base.
(3D). Level of shadow capital load, % of official load. This indicator is disincentive.
(4S). The level of use of passenger capacity of aircraft and helicopters, % This indicator is a stimulant. The level of use of passenger capacity of aircraft and helicopters is one of the key indicators of the economy of air transport. It indicates the load factor, which directly affects the economic result of each individual flight, and the complex
activities of air carriers. Along with the yield factor, it is the main tariff-forming factor in the airline's commercial operation.
(5S). The level of renewal of fixed assets, %. This indicator is a stimulant. As already mentioned, air transport is a high-tech mode of transport that requires constant updating of fixed assets. In aviation, this process is much faster, as modern fixed assets are the key to improving efficiency and reducing the cost of air transportation.
The dynamics of indicators of technological development of air transport in the period from 2010 to 2020, as well as their threshold and optimal values are shown in Table 2.
1-S 2-S 3-D 4-S 5-S
Coefficient of Capital utilization Level of The level of use The level of
manufacturabil ity, non-dim coefficient, non-dim shadow capital load, % of passenger capacity, % renewal of fixed assets, %
2010 0,513209 0,8337 0,5960 71 11,552
2011 0,500918 1,051 4,2508 74 14,106
2012 0,465701 1,1422 5,9649 77 11,046
2013 0,475095 0,9753 7,4540 81 7,334
2014 0,464306 0,8981 12,5418 76 5,272
2015 0,456612 0,9401 11,7851 82 7,767
2016 0,457196 1,1713 19,3369 82 5,302
2017 0,458502 1,4885 21,1926 83 9,698
2018 0,460573 1,6949 29,5071 84 9,170
2019 0,458 1,8122 45,8017 87 8,554
2020 0,458002 1,021 41,9747 56 5,206
Lower
threshold 0,47 0,87 17 70 4
The lower
optimal 0,51 1,1 10 80 6,6
The top optimal 0,56 1,44 7 90 10
Upper threshold 0,65 2,1 3,5 100 15
Ratioing factor 0,65 2,1 50 100 15
Table 2. Dynamics of indicators of technological development of aviation transport in the period from 2010 to 2020, their threshold and optimal values
3.1.3. Aviation infrastructure turnover to GDP). This indicator is a stimulant.
(IS). Cargo transport capacity of GDP by In the air freight forecasting model, ICAO aviation transport (the ratio of air transport indicates a direct link between cargo turnover
and national GDP. The growth of air traffic is a catalyst for the growth of the runway due to the development of export / import operations and the logistics sector of the state.
(2S). Passenger transport capacity of GDP by aviation transport (ratio of passenger turnover to GDP). This indicator is a stimulant. The growth of air passenger traffic is also a catalyst for the growth of GDP, including through the development of business, international relations, tourism, services.
(3S). Average distance of cargo aviation transportation (ratio of cargo turnover to volume of cargo transportation). This indicator is a stimulant. The increase in the average distance of cargo transportation indicates the development of the geography of freight traffic and, indirectly, the growth of revenue due to the establishment of higher tariffs for longer-distance transportation.
(4S). Average distance of passenger aviation transportation (ratio of passenger
turnover to the volume of passenger transportation). This indicator is a stimulant. The growth of the average distance of passenger transportation indicates the development of the geography of passenger traffic and, indirectly, the growth of revenue due to the establishment of higher tariffs for longer-distance transportation.
(5S). Ratio of domestic and international aviation transportation. This indicator is a stimulant. The development of domestic transport indicates an increase in population mobility, increasing public confidence in air transport. Creation of a national regional airline relies on the strategy of revival of domestic aircraft construction for the period up to 2030.
The dynamics of aviation infrastructure indicators in the period from 2010 to 2020, as well as their threshold and optimal values are shown in Table 3.
Table 3. Dynamics of aviation infrastructure indicators in the period from 2010 to 2020, their
threshold and optimal va ues
1-D 2-D 3-S 4-S 5-S
Cargo aviation Passenger Average distance Average distance Ratio of domestic
transport aviation transport of cargo aviation of passenger and international
capacity of capacity of GDP transportation aviation aviation transport-
GDP t.km / $ pass.km / $ km transportation km tation non-dim
2010 0,002941 0,080882 4315 1794 0,187042
2011 0,002448 0,084443 4023 1835 0,125
2012 0,002276 0,08192 2960 1777 0,1375
2013 0,001637 0,068736 2753 1547 0,1754506
2014 0,001499 0,086914 3044 1789 0,1109719
2015 0,002197 0,125205 3053 1803 0,1100211
2016 0,002142 0,166023 3048 1876 0,1073521
2017 0,002674 0,181837 3325 1928 0,0978834
2018 0,002596 0,197949 3428 2066 0,0946086
2019 0,001885 0,193933 3192 2219 0,092126
2020 0,001577 0,078542 3022 1142 0,0921168
Lower
threshold 0,001824 0,07978 2475 1800 0,1274
The lower
optimal 0,001552 0,06686 2963 1900 0,1774
The top optimal 0,001108 0,03634 3665 2200 0,2429
Upper
threshold 0,000611 0,01875 4462 2300 0,3126
Ratioing factor 0,0032 0,22 4500 2300 0,32
3.1.4. Aviation safety
3.1.4.1. Regular commercial, non-scheduled commercial and noncommercial flights
For regular commercial, irregular commercial and non-commercial flights accident rates are calculated by the formula:
Kt = N x 100 000 / T (1)
where,
N - number of aviation events;
T - flight of hours for the analyzed period;
100,000 - comparison criterion, 100,000 flight hours [11 - 17].
(ID). Catastrophes coefficient (regular commercial, irregular commercial and noncommercial flights (Ukraine)). This indicator is disincentive.
(2D). Accidents coefficient (regular commercial, non-scheduled commercial and non-commercial flights (Ukraine)). This indicator is disincentive.
(3D). Serious incidents coefficient (serious incidents) (regular commercial, non-
scheduled commercial and non-commercial flights) (Ukraine)). This indicator is disincentive.
Catastrophes, accident and serious incidents coefficients for regular commercial, non-scheduled commercial and noncommercial flights are unambiguous negative indicators, the very presence of which confirms the saying that, unfortunately, aviation transport is not an ideal system in which we cannot talk about the absolute, but only about an acceptable level of safety. In terms of the scale of the negative impact, they are increasing from 3 D to 1 D, but the increase in the number of serious incidents creates the basis for probable accidents and catastrophes. These indicators are carefully researched on an ongoing basis by the National Bureau for the Investigation of Aviation Incidents and Incidents with Civil Aircraft of Ukraine.
Dynamics of aviation safety indicators for commercial, irregular commercial and noncommercial flights in the period from 2010 to 2020, as well as their threshold and optimal values are shown in Table 4.
1-D 2-D 3-D
Catastrophes coefficient, non-dim Accidents coefficient non-dim Serious incidents coefficient, non-dim
2010 0,3500 0,3500 2,3024
2011 0,3500 0,3500 1,8151
2012 0,3500 0,3500 2,1488
2013 0,7565 1,1629 0,8165
2014 0,8375 0,3500 2,8476
2015 0,3500 0,3500 0,4100
2016 0,3500 0,3500 2,1132
2017 0,3500 0,7226 1,5278
2018 0,6920 0,6920 1,7779
2019 0,6882 0,6882 1,0864
2020 1,1118 0,3500 0,4100
Lower threshold 1,1561 1,5592 2,4254
The lower optimal 0,7531 0,7531 0,8131
Table 4. Dynamics of indicators of aviation safety indicators for regular commercial, irregular commercial and non-commercial flights in the period from 2010 to 2020, their threshold and optimal values [11 - 17].
The top optimal 0,3500 0,3500 0,4100
Upper threshold 0,3500 0,3500 0,4100
Ratioing factor 1,2 1,6 3
3.1.4.2. Execution of aviation works and training flights
For aviation work and training flights accident rates are calculated by the formula:
Kt = N x 10 000 / T
(2)
where,
N - number of aviation events;
T - flight of hours for the analyzed period;
10,000 - comparison criterion, 10,000 hours.
(1D). Catastrophes coefficient (aviation works and training flights (Ukraine)). This indicator is disincentive.
(2D). Accidents coefficient (aviation works and training flights (Ukraine). This indicator is disincentive.
(3D). Serious incidents coefficient (serious incidents) (aviation works and training flights) (Ukraine). This indicator is disincentive.
Catastrophes, accident and serious incidents coefficients for aviation works and training flights are unambiguous negative indicators, the very presence of which confirms the saying that, unfortunately, aviation transport is not an ideal system in which we cannot talk about the absolute, but only about an acceptable level of safety. In terms of the scale of the negative impact, they are increasing from 3 D to 1 D, but the increase in the number of serious incidents creates the basis for probable accidents and catastrophes. These indicators are carefully researched on an ongoing basis by the National Bureau for the Investigation of Aviation Incidents and Incidents with Civil Aircraft of Ukraine.
Dynamics of aviation safety indicators for aviation works and training flights in the period from 2010 to 2020, as well as their threshold and optimal values are shown in
Table 5.
Table 5. Dynamics of indicators of aviation safety indicators for aviation works and training f ights in the period from 2010 to 2020, their threshold and optimal values [11 - 17].
1-D 2-D 3-D
Catastrophes coefficient non-dim Accidents coefficient non-dim Serious incidents coefficient non-dim
2010 8,0980 16,0952 6,0986
2011 4,1336 10,2345 4,1336
2012 4,1654 4,1654 2,1000
2013 2,1000 9,5281 4,5760
2014 2,1000 2,1000 2,1000
2015 2,1000 7,5975 13,0951
2016 2,1000 16,2894 2,1000
2017 12,1351 7,1176 7,1176
2018 6,9914 11,8828 2,1000
2019 5,2944 8,4888 5,2944
2020 10,7806 10,7806 2,1000
Lower threshold 11,3013 14,3684 17,4355
The lower optimal 8,2342 11,3013 8,2342
The top optimal 5,1671 5,1671 5,1671
Upper threshold 2,1000 2,1000 2,1000
Ratioing factor 13,0 17,5 20,0
3.2. Social component of air transport
(IS). The level of wages in the production of aviation transport, Ukraine. This indicator is a stimulant. In Ukraine, the level of wages in air transport is one of the highest in the country. This is due to the need for a high level of competence of aviation workers and plays an important social role. People whose lives and the health of others depend on should be socially protected, which indirectly increases the overall level of safety of the air transport system.
(2S). The level of employment in air transport (Percentage of the average number of full-time employees of air transport in relation to the total average number of fulltime employees (transport, warehousing, postal and courier activities)). This indicator is a stimulant. The level of employment in air transport indicates the development of a high-tech labor market with high demands on the competence of workers. This is one of the
social levers of sustainable development of modern society.
(3S). Coefficient of population mobility. This indicator is a stimulant. Population mobility is a catalyst for business, tourism and services and has a positive synergy effect for the sustainable development of the national economy.
(4D) Level of official GVA created by shadow wages, % of official gross value added (GVA) of air transport. This indicator is a clear disincentive, which causes direct damage to the state due to tax non-compliance and the general imbalance of the national economy.
(5D) Level of shadow employment, % of official employment. This indicator is an unambiguous disincentive, which causes direct damage to the state due to tax non-compliance and the general imbalance of the national economy.
The dynamics of indicators of the social component of air transport in the period from 2010 to 2020, as well as their threshold and optimal values are shown in Table 6.
Table 6. Dynamics of indicators of the social component of air transport in the period from 2010 to 2020, their threshold and optimal values
1-S 2-S 3-S 4-D 5-D
The level of The level of Coefficient of Level of Level of
wages in the employment in population official GVA shadow
production of air transport, mobility, created by employment,
aviation trans- % transporatatio shadow %
port, non-dim ns by person wages, %
2010 0,3754 86,0465 0,13 0,01 1,8335
2011 0,3374 86,5672 0,16 0,72 9,1352
2012 0,3207 86,8217 0,18 1,42 11,6860
2013 0,3068 87,1560 0,18 2,06 14,1800
2014 0,2630 86,9048 0,15 5,68 22,4336
2015 0,2693 79,3103 0,15 5,44 20,8515
2016 0,2126 78,8889 0,19 14,96 31,1688
2017 0,2002 78,8462 0,25 17,35 33,6208
2018 0,1519 79,4118 0,3 31,12 43,0105
2019 0,0790 80,8081 0,33 64,16 55,8723
2020 0,0938 73,1481 0,2 56,67 53,4945
Lower threshold 0,2 80 0,2 15 23
The lower optimal 0,26 90 0,6145 8 14
The top optimal 0,32 98 1,3 5 6,5
Upper threshold 0,382 100 2,775 3 3,0
Ratioing factor 0,382 100 3 70 60
3.5. Ecological component of air transport
(1D). Level of CO2 emissions of aviation transport of Ukraine to GDP. This indicator is disincentive. In order to counter climate change, ICAO is working to reduce CO2 emissions on a global scale and has proposed a compensation system and carbon reduction scheme (The Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA)). Regional organizations and national aviation authorities are joining forces to implement this concept through the direct implementation of environmental approaches to aviation transport development [2,6].
(2D). The level of emissions of pollutants into the atmosphere. Similar measures are taken to reduce the level of emissions of other pollutants into the atmosphere. This indicator is also disincentive [6].
(3S). The level of environmental costs of aviation transport However, environmental safety measures require not only political but also resource support from the state. Therefore, this indicator is a stimulant [6].
The dynamics of indicators of the environmental component of air transport in the period from 2010 to 2020, as well as their threshold and optimal values are shown in Table 7.
Table 7. Dynamics of indicators of the social component of air transport in the period from 2010 to 2020, their threshold and optimal values_
1-D 2-D 3-S
Level of CO2 emissions, The level of emissions of The level of
Kg/USD pollutants. non-dim environmental costs of aviation transport, non-dim
2010 4,755948 0,0671651 0,178231
2011 2,947878 0,0431963 0,197168
2012 2,491729 0,0386886 0,212251
2013 2,315328 0,0389478 0,203509
2014 2,95397 0,042318 0,221626
2015 1,626471 0,0343303 0,182712
2016 1,208049 0,0210556 0,208137
2017 0,876968 0,0140365 0,138206
2018 0,694275 0,0092381 0,150444
2019 0,55842 0,0059522 0,139455
2020 0,710605 0,009282 0,111311
Lower threshold 0,82 0,0123 0,15
The lower optimal 0,51 0,0076 0,17
The top optimal 0,32 0,0048 0,2
Upper threshold 0,2 0,003 0,26
Ratioing factor 5 0,08 0,3
Conclusions. The aviation transport is a part of the transport complex of Ukraine, which is an important component in the structure of the national economy and a link between all components of economic
security to ensure the basic conditions of life and development of the state and society. The assessment of economic, technological, safety, social and ecological hazards is an integral part of all the logical blocks of the
structural and functional scheme of strategic management of aviation safety in terms of sustainable development of the national economy.
In the article determined and substantiated the main indicators of economic and technological development, safety, social and environmental components of air transport and assess their level. In the article the authors propose and present the dynamics in the period from 2010 to 2020 of 29 indicators of sustainable development of air transport of Ukraine, such us share of aviation transport in the gross value added (transport and communications); level of investment in aviation transport; level of export services of air transport; level of import services of aviation transport; level of shadowing of aviation transport; coefficient of manufacturability of aviation transport; capital utilization coefficient; level of shadow capital load; level of use of passenger capacity of aircraft and helicopters; level of renewal of fixed assets; cargo transport capacity of GDP by aviation transport; passenger transport capacity of GDP by aviation transport; average distance of cargo aviation transportation; average distance of passenger aviation transportation; ratio of domestic and
international aviation transportation; catastrophes, accidents, serious coefficients for regular commercial/irregular commercial/non-commercial flights and execution of aviation works/training flights; level of wages in the production of aviation transport; level of employment in air transport; coefficient of population mobility; level of official GVA created by shadow wages; level of shadow employment; level of CO2 emissions of aviation transport of Ukraine to GDP; level of emissions of pollutants into the atmosphere; level of environmental costs of aviation transport. Authors determined their threshold and optimal values. Indicators are given in groups in the above areas. Indicators are divided into stimulants (indicators that contribute to the sustainable development of air transport and the national economy) and disincentives (indicators that hinder the sustainable development of air transport and the national economy). The solution of this problem will make it possible to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the current state of air transport in Ukraine on the basis of a systematic approach, which will be presented in subsequent publications of the authors.
References
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