CC BY
25УДК 159.9:343.8
DOI 10.33463/0000-0000.2019.01(1-3).2.118-136
Pastushenya A. N., Vasishchev A. A., Filaretov S. V., Zharkikh A. A., Prokop'ev V. V.
Пастушеня А. Н., Васищев А. А., Филаретов С. В., Жарких А. А., Прокопьев В. В.
IMPROVEMENT OF PSYCHOLOGICAL TESTS TO IDENTIFY PERSONS PRONE TO ESCAPE FROM CORRECTIONAL INSTITUTIONS AND PLACES OF DETENTION
СОВЕРШЕНСТВОВАНИЕ ПСИХОЛОГИЧЕСКИХ ТЕСТОВ ПО ВЫЯВЛЕНИЮ ЛИЦ, СКЛОННЫХ К ПОБЕГУ ИЗ ИСПРАВИТЕЛЬНЫХ УЧРЕЖДЕНИЙ И МЕСТ СОДЕРЖАНИЯ ПОД СТРАЖЕЙ
Abstract. The article is devoted to the problem of developing tests for predicting escapes of convicts, suspects and accused from pre-trial detention centers, prisons and correctional institutions, as well as the algorithm of their implementation in the automated workplace of a penitentiary psychologist. In the overall picture of penitentiary crime, the problem of escapes of convicts, suspects and accused is actual and important. The analysis of literary sources shows that in case of escapes prediction, it is necessary to consider not only criminal, but also social, biological and psychological features of convict's personality. The psychological determinants of convicts' escape activity include: emotional instability, conformity, increased anxiety, aggressiveness, rigidity of thinking, pessimism, suspicion, difficult process of adaptation to the conditions of serving punishment; low level of intelligence, presence of negative mental states, expressed motivation to evade serving punishment, an irresistible desire to be free, a desire to protect themselves from physical or psychological impact, active illegal activity in criminal communities. However, identification of the above qualities in convicts, suspects and accused does not allow calculating the probability of their escapes qualitatively. In order to develop psychodiagnostic tools to predict the convicts', suspects' and accused persons' escape probability in terms of predictive validity, the use of "empirical-inductive" strategy of test construction is more effective. As part of this strategy, the scales of escape prediction of convicts, suspects and accused persons in the automated workplace of a penitentiary psychologist, using the psychodiagnostic system "Psychometric Expert", were implemented. Two scales "Escape 365"
© Pastushenya A. N., Vasishchev A. A., Filaretov S. V., Zharkikh A. A., Prokop'ev V. V., 2019 © Пастушеня А. Н., Васищев А. А., Филаретов С. В., Жарких А. А., Прокопьев В. В., 2019
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and "Escape 90" were added to the method of accentuation research (G. Smishek, K. Leongard). In the method "Comprehensive study of the personality of a convict" - CSPC (E. A. Chebalova) scale "Escape 540" was added. In the method "Abbreviated multifactorial questionnaire for personality research" - Mini-mult (V. P. Zaytsev) scales "Escape 365" and "Escape 180" were added. The analysis of the practice of using predicting scales, implemented in the automated workplace of a penitentiary psychologist, shows that they are additional tools for escapes prevention.
Keywords: escape, convicts, automated workplace of penitentiary psychologist, prediction, tests.
Аннотация. В статье рассматривается проблема разработки тестов прогноза побега осужденных, подозреваемых и обвиняемых из следственных изоляторов, тюрем и исправительных колоний, а также алгоритм их реализации в автоматизированном рабочем месте пенитенциарного психолога. В общей картине пенитенциарной преступности проблема побегов осужденных, подозреваемых и обвиняемых занимает не последнее место. Анализ литературных источников показывает, что при прогнозе побегов необходимо учитывать не только криминальные, но и социальные, биологические и психологические особенности личности осужденного. К психологическим детерминантам побеговой активности осужденных относят: эмоциональную неустойчивость, конформность, повышенную тревожность, агрессивность, ригидность мышления, пессимистичность, подозрительность, затрудненный процесс адаптации к условиям отбывания наказания; низкий уровень интеллекта, наличие отрицательных психических состояний, выраженную мотивацию уклониться от отбывания наказания, непреодолимое желание побывать на свободе, стремление защитить себя от физического или психологического воздействия, активную противоправную деятельность в составе преступных сообществ. Однако выявление вышеперечисленных качеств у осужденных, подозреваемых и обвиняемых не позволяет качественно рассчитывать вероятность совершения ими побегов. В целях разработки психодиагностического инструментария, предназначенного для прогнозирования вероятности побегов осужденных, подозреваемых и обвиняемых, с точки зрения прогностической валидности, более эффективно использование «эмпирико-индуктивной» стратегии построения тестов. В рамках данной стратегии реализованы шкалы прогноза побегов осужденных, подозреваемых и обвиняемых в автоматизированном рабочем месте пенитенциарного психолога, работающем на базе психодиагностической системы «Psychometric Expert». В методике исследования акцентуаций (П Smishek, К. Леонгард) добавлены две шкалы «Побег 365» и «Побег 90». В методике «Комплексное исследование личности осужденного» - КИЛО (Е. А. Чебалова) добавлена шкала «Побег 540». В методике «Сокращенный многофакторный опросник для исследования личности» - Mini-mult (В. П. Зайцев) добавлены шкалы «Побег 365» и «Побег 180». Анализ практики использования шкал прогноза, реализованных в автоматизированном рабочем месте пенитенциарного психолога, показывает, что они являются дополнительным инструментом профилактики побегов.
Ключевые слова: побеги, осужденные, автоматизированное рабочее место пенитенциарного психолога, прогноз, тесты.
Information about authors / Сведения об авторах
Aleksandr Nikolaevich Pastushenya, DSc (Psychology), Professor, professor of psychology and pedagogy department, Ministry of the Interior Academy of the Republic of Belarus, Minsk, Republic of Belarus, e-mail: anp-1308@yandex.ru.
Александр Николаевич Пастушеня, доктор психологических наук, профессор, профессор кафедры психологии и педагогики, Академия МВД Республики Беларусь, г. Минск, Республика Беларусь, e-mail: anp-1308@yandex.ru.
Andrey Anatol'evich Vasishchev, PhD (Psychology), Yaroslavl, Russian Federation, e-mail: aziris19@mail.ru.
Андрей Анатольевич Васищев, кандидат психологических наук, г. Ярославль, Российская Федерация, e-mail: aziris19@mail.ru.
Sergey Valer'evich Filaretov, senior engineer of interregional department of psychological work of the FPS of Russia in Yaroslavl region, Yaroslavl, Russian Federation, e-mail: segat@list.ru.
Сергей Валерьевич Филаретов, старший инженер межрегионального отдела психологической работы УФСИН России по Ярославской области, г. Ярославль, Российская Федерация, e-mail: segat@list.ru.
Aleksandra Anatol'evna Zharkikh, PhD (Psychology), Associate Professor, associate professor of general psychology department, Academy of the FPS of Russia, Ryazan, Russian Federation, e-mail: fonya 02@mail.ru.
Александра Анатольевна Жарких, кандидат психологических наук, доцент, доцент кафедры общей психологии, Академия ФСИН России, г. Рязань, Российская Федерация, e-mail: fonya 02@mail.ru.
Vasiliy Vasil'evich Prokop'ev, head of the department of educational and social work with staff of the Personnel Department, FPS of Russia, Moscow, Russian Federation, e-mail: vasiliy prokopev@mail.ru.
Василий Васильевич Прокопьев, начальник отдела воспитательной и социальной работы с личным составом управления кадров, ФСИН России, г. Москва, Российская Федерация, e-mail: vasiliy prokopev@mail.ru.
Recommended citation / Для цитирования
Pastushenya, A. N., Vasishchev, A. A., Filaretov, S. V., Zharkikh, A. A. & Prokop'ev V. V. 2019, 'Improvement of psychological tests to identify persons prone to escape from correctional institutions and places of detention', International penitentiary journal, vol. 1(1-3), iss. 2, pp. 118-136, doi: 10.33463/0000-0000.2019.01(1-3).2.118-136.
Пастушеня, А. Н. Совершенствование психологических тестов по выявлению лиц, склонных к побегу из исправительных учреждений и мест содержания под стражей / А. Н. Пастушеня, А. А. Васищев, С. В. Филаретов, А. А. Жарких, В. В. Прокопьев // Международный пенитенциарный журнал. - 2019. - Т. 1(1-3), № 2. - С. 118-136. - DOI : 10.33463/0000-0000.2019.1(1-3).2.118-136.
Introduction
One of the most pressing problems of the penal system is the problem of penitentiary crime. Penitentiary crime not only has a negative impact on the rule of law in the country, but also is a destructive factor in the activities of institutions and bodies executing punishments.
The problem of convicts, suspects and accused persons' escapes is also urgent in the overall system of penitentiary crime. Thus, according to official data of the Federal penitentiary service of Russia, the number of convicts, suspects and accused persons, who have escaped from pretrial detention centers and prisons, as well as correctional institutions, remains at a high level. Although it has some tendency to decrease: 197 people in 2010; 186 people in 2011; 174 people in 2012; 143 people in 2013; 125 people in 2014. In addition, the relevance of this problem is evidenced by the data on the number of prevented escapes of convicts, suspects and accused. For example, in detention centers and prisons, as well as in correctional institutions 6114 escapes in 2010; 5254 escapes in 2011; 4716 escapes in 2012; 4437 escapes in 2013; 4757 escapes in 2014 were prevented. As the criminal legislation, pursuing certain purposes of punishment, assumes that a punishment should be realized fully, it is possible to claim: evasion of punishment interferes with achievement of the specified purposes and, as a consequence, undermines foundations of modern society.
In view of the above, the problem of escape prevention remains relevant at the present stage of the penal system development and requires mobilization of all units of penitentiary institutions resources, including psychological services. For this reason, the task to increase the efficiency of escape prediction of convicts, suspects and accused persons is set for practical penitentiary psychologists. In the works of Yu. M. Antonyan (1982, p. 21) were noted that "the study of the criminal personality without studying his/her psychology
is meaningless". Thus, it seems necessary to improve the psychodiagnostic tools to identify individuals prone to escape.
The problem of studying the psychological characteristics of individuals prone to escapes from correctional institutions and detention facilities is considered in the works of experts in the field of criminology (V. E. Kvashis (1978), V. K. Saulyak (1978), Yu. K. Shevelev (1978), V. D. Volobuev (1979), V. D. Pakhomov (1988), G. F. Khokhryakov (1991), L. V. Pertsova (1993), V. I. Alekseev (1994), A. V. Brilliantov (1994), A. V. Chepelev (1994), N. P. Barabanov (2003), V. A. Ponkratov (2005), V. M. Gavriloy (2007), V. V. Senkevich (2009) S. A. Khokhrin (2012) etc. ), and in the works of prison psychologists and educators (V. F. Pirozhkov (2001), M. G. Debol'skiy (2004), I. A. Matveeva (2004), D. N. Krotova (2013), S. S. Piyukova (2014) etc.).
Focusing on the conceptual apparatus of the problem under consideration, it can be noted that the classical definition of the concept of "escape" in prison psychology is "evasion of serving a criminal sentence by prisoners" (Debol'skiy, M. G. & Krotova, D. N. 2013).
According to the definition of N. P. Barabanov, "escape should be understood as a secret, hidden, clever, as well as obvious way of abandonment of correctional institutions by convicts, their leaving without any impact on the persons carrying out the protection and other employees or involving the use of violence, weapons or objects used as weapons, attack on persons carrying out the protection and possession of weapons, causing harm to the health of these and other persons or killing them" (Barabanov, N. P. 2003, p. 222).
Considering the problem of escapes in general, V. F. Pirozhkov revealed that any escape of a prisoner has two aspects: psychological and technical. In turn, the psychological aspect includes the reasons, conditions and motives that prompted him to escape (Pirozhkov, V. F. 2001).
Knowledge of the specific reasons that prompted convicts to escape allows us to present a certain system of subjective reasons
for crimes commission and opens in the study of escape prevention its reasons.
Such reasons include: deep and persistent antisocial personal views in which the part of convicts has negative attitude to the requirements in correctional institutions, reluctance to take responsibility for their actions; the combination of serious personal circumstances, and threats posed by other prisoners; features of convict's personality: instability, avoidant behavior, increased emotionality, anxiety, and other character traits, hindering persons adaptation to places of imprisonment.
According to the position of many authors, the direct subjective reason for escapes from correctional institutions is a particularly persistent antisocial orientation of the offender's personality.
O. V. Starkov considers internal and external reasons and conditions of criminal behavior in places of imprisonment. The internal cause is criminal motivation, especially motivation of prestige and gain credibility among other prisoners, culminating in some cases in violent and selfish motivation. Internal conditions that contribute to commission of crimes are: neurotic deviations, negative value orientations, emotional instability, increased anxiety, increased self-esteem, stubbornness, various mental states (sadness, despondency, depression, etc.). The external reason, according to the author, is a conflict crime situation (Starkov, O. V. 1997, pp. 22-30).
N. P. Barabanov (2003, pp. 312-317) The author believes that features of convicts' personality play great importance in the prevention of escapes; they are such as: age; educational level; marital status; conditions of family education; place of residence and occupation before conviction; age at which a convict began to commit offenses; personal characteristics predisposing to commission of illegal acts; information about criminal nature of convicts' personality; psychological structure of convict's personality; attitude to work; response to measures of educational influence; attitude
to personnel and requirements; the situation among convicts; building plans for the future.
Among the factors contributing to the predisposition of an individual to commit illegal acts, N. P. Barabanov (2003, p. 314) distinguishes: impact of social environment; disadvantages of family education; absence of a specific occupation; financial difficulties; attraction to alcohol, drugs, participation in criminal groups and communities; use of official position; mental health problems; criminal quality purchased in places of deprivation of liberty, etc.
Analysis of the practical experience of psychodiagnostics in correctional institutions among several regions and the study results conducted by M. G. Debol'skiy and I. A. Matveeva (2004) allow us to conclude that "...important indicators of convicts' prone to escape ("escape activity") are: attitude to the crime and sentences of the court; strong desire by any means to change the place of punishment; desire to expand their psychological space, possibility of free movement; active illegal activity in groups of criminal communities." According to M. G. Debol'skiy and D. N. Krotova, the following features should be taken into account, predicting propensity of a convicted person to escape:
- criminal: high criminal infection (recurrence of criminal behavior and perception of punishment as unfairly strict, presence of convicted relatives, importance of status and power, as a rule, in criminal environment); average status in the colony; presence of a negative personality orientation; a negative reaction to educational measures, a possibility of only minor correction; violations of detention regime in correctional institutions associated with self-harm; violations of the daily routine; manufacture, storage and transfer of prohibited items;
- social: young age;
- biological: presence of mental abnormalities;
- psychological: exposure to changing of mood; propensity to risk in high activity
phase (persistent elevated mood); stealth, a low degree of sociability in the colony; weak suggestibility, distrust of people, high criticality; an ability to suppress or hide, aggression, anxiety, instability of self-esteem with a tendency to overestimation; presence of externally accusatory reactions;
- moral: negative attitude to the world and people; weakness of moral censorship as a mechanism of psychological protection; rejection or distortion of moral values on the principle: "The end justifies the means»;
- behavioral: low ability to change behavior and lack of desire for it; presence in childhood and adolescence experience of repeated escapes from home (or special institutions), as well as in adolescence and adulthood experience of escaping from prison, evasion of the route; low discipline, focus on satisfying selfish needs, entertainment; expression of intentions to take revenge on people at large (investigators, judge, victims, relatives), presence of "insoluble" conflict with convicts and employees (Debol'skiy, M. G. & Krotova, D. N. 2013).
Summarizing the above, it can be argued that the psychological characteristics of convict's personality are one of the important factors determining an escape. With regard to the specification of psychological characteristics that predispose convicts to escape from places of detention, domestic scientists identify a range of such qualities.
M. N. Gernet (1925, p. 237), examining the psychological aspect of escapes, came to the conclusion that in most cases convicts, who managed to escape, characterized by amazing foresight, a desire to foresee a long chain of all kinds of obstacles on the way out of prison, to avoid some of them and to overcome others.
The study of A. Ya. Markov, A. N. Volobuev, E. B. Galkin (1982, p. 99) of convicts who have committed escapes because of intrinsic motivation revealed that they have the following psychological characteristics: low mental ability; emotional instability; conformity; reticence, a tendency to introspection, pessimism; caution,
a tendency to minimize contact, anxiety, high self-esteem, stubbornness.
S. P. Shcherba, L. V. Pertsova (1993, pp. 23-27), conducting a psychological study of juvenile fugitives' personality profiles with the use of Lichko A. E. diagnostic questionnaire, found out that the predominant accentuation in this category of convicted persons are conformance, persistent elevated mood and instability.
Among the psychological personality traits contributing to the escape of convicts, V. M. Gavriloy (2007, pp. 66) identifies "emotional instability and intemperance, conformity, introversion, increased anxiety, increased conceit, stubbornness.
Studies of the persons, who made escapes, carried out in 2008 by the staff of psychological service department of management of social, psychological and educational work with convicts of the FPS of Russia and interregional psychological laboratory of the FPS of Russia in Samara region showed that among personal risk factors there are: alcohol or drug dependence (38.7%); existence of mental deviations (9.8%); increased impulsivity and emotional unrestraint, aggression and cruelty (43.3%); high anxiety, fear and aspiration to self-defense (21%); hopelessness of life (1%). In addition, conducted psychodiagnostic investigation of convicts, who have committed escapes, using such techniques as 16-factor questionnaire by R. Cattell, questionnaire MMPI-71 allow us to reveal the following general personal qualities: rigidity of thought, low adaptive capacity, adventurism, risk aversion, activity, disinhibition, emotional instability, spontaneity, conformity, pessimism, suspicion (Psychological prevention of convicts' escapes in colonies-settlements 2008, pp. 12-16).
E. O. Alaukhanov (1998) refers to subjective conditions of crimes commission in correctional institutions: mental features of a person: unbalance of character, mental and nervous diseases, increased excitability and nervousness, degree of pedagogical neglect, etc.
A. E. Ashkov (2006, pp. 15-16), considering the features of the personality prone to escape and convicts serving sentences in correctional colonies, highlights their immaturity, conformity, difficult adaptation to the conditions of imprisonment, inability to stand for themselves, isolation, desire for solitude, increased level of anxiety, inconsistency, mood swings, suspicion, superstition, violations of motivational and volitional sphere of personality, inconsistency of socio-psychological attitudes.
The results of a study conducted by M. G. Debol'skiy and I. A. Matveeva (2004) show that "the characteristics of the convict, prone to escape, can be called: emotional instability, impulsivity; a tendency to rely more on feelings than on reason during actions; increased conflictness and at the same time dependence on others; secrecy, a tendency to reflection, immersion in their experiences, caution, increased anxiety, suggestibility; low intelligence, "blunted" consciousness; aggression, weak self-control, etc."
V. M. Gavriloy believes that escapes commission also contribute to the negative mental states: "One of these negative states of convicts is an excited state, which complicates the inhibitory processes and often turns into affective state, in which the normal activity of the convict is violated and he lost self-control. The mental peculiarity of the majority of convicts is a sharp transition from a state of hope and confidence in their future to a state of complete hopelessness and despair. In this state, many convicts often consciously commit escapes and other crimes" (2007, pp. 57-58). Thus, mental states specific to convicts (melancholy, despondency, depression, etc.), according to the author, also contribute to escapes commission (Gavriloy V. М., p. 66).
Specialist-psychologists, according to V. M. Gavriloy (2007, pp. 166-167), should identify convicts who are in a state of anxiety, depression, paranoid mood, with maliciously affective reactions, as well as drug addicts, with signs of an acute need for drug use and
the inability to implement it in a correctional institution, a pre-trial detention center, as these persons may be predisposed to escape.
S. S. Piyukova pays also great attention to mental state of convicts as determinants for escapes (2014, pp. 12-14), considering strategies of human behavior in stressful situations. She notes that due to the inability of convicts to adapt to stressful situations caused by isolation, the following reactions are possible, which may indicate the possibility of escape: claustrophobic, anxiety-depressive, negative-depressive, negative-hysterical reactions.
G. F. Khokhryakov considers that commission of crimes in places of imprisonment is connected with mental states causing convicts' internal tension (fears, fears, anxiety, suspiciousness, mistrust, touchiness, suspicion, anxiety, excitability, irritability, hostility, aggression, uncertainty, indecision, emotional instability). This is the cause of unmotivated crimes. The second reason is convicts' consolidation, increasing their alienation from society, acting as a prerequisite for the conflict of behavior norms. Self-organization of convicts is the third reason personifying the conflict. The values of convicts also determine the principles of behavior and the norm in their sphere (Khokhryakov, G. F. & Kudryavtsev, V. N. (ed.) 1999, pp. 72-73).
Based on the study of escapees conducted in 2008 by the staff of psychological services division of the department of social, psychological and educational work with convicts of the Federal penitentiary service of Russia and the Interregional psychological laboratory of the Federal penitentiary service of Russia in Samara region, among personal risk factors for escapes, motivation, status and individual psychological properties of personality were identified. In this case, the leading factor, according to the researchers, is motivation. Among the most probable motives of escapes according to the results of the study were: a desire to evade serving a sentence (65.5%); an irresistible desire to be free (53.1%);
a desire to protect themselves from physical or psychological impact (8.8%) (Psychological prevention of escapes of convicts in colonies-settlements 2008, pp. 12-16).
On the basis of motives systematization of escapes commission from correctional institutions A. Ya. Markov, A. N. Volobuev, E. B. Galkin (1982, p. 98) identified main groups of convicts committing escapes: 1) persons escaping for the solution of their personal problems; 2) persons having serious conflicts with other prisoners; 3) persons deeply affected by hopelessness of the situation (convicts with internal motivation).
V. V. Senkevich (2009, p. 9) conducted a study of convicts who escape from prison, and it showed that "the main motives for committing a crime is reluctance to serve a sentence because of disagreement with the court verdict, and a desire to see the family and other close relatives".
Referring to the problem of complex escape prevention from prisons, V. M. Gavriloy notes that an important role in escape prevention should be assigned to "psychological laboratories: continuous psychological examination of prisoners in quarantine, in order to identify persons with predisposition to deviant behavior associated with escapes commission; individual psychological consultation of convicts who are on preventive registration as prone to escapes; identification of convicts with mental disorders that may lead to actions associated with escapes commission and other crimes; organization of interaction with psychiatrists to make a decision on the use of specialized treatment; conducting socio-psychological study of convicts in order to identify negative processes in interpersonal relationships, mood of criminogenic and criminal nature, including escapes; provision of information relevant to the prevention of escapes; development of measures aimed at the formation of teams, brigades, determination of types of convicts work, eliminating the risk of creating criminal tension, development of interpersonal conflicts, phenomena
and processes that contribute to escapes commission; development of operating officers, heads of units and employees of the security department, methodical recommendations on improvement of individual educational and preventive impact on prisoners, predisposed to escapes commission, and other prisoners, criminal behavior of which may contribute to this" (Gavriloy, V. M. 2007, p. 136).
Among psychological measures of escapes prevention, in 2008 the staff of the department of social, psychological and educational work with convicts of the FPS of Russia and the FPS of Russia in Samara region proposed to implement the following measures: a complex study of convicts' personalities; dynamic monitoring of mental states and moods of convicts; group and individual correctional work with persons who are on preventive record; work with convicts' relatives in terms of solving family problems, which are one of escapes causes; psychological education of prison staff; support and development of groups of convicts who demonstrate a positive orientation; timely response of the administration of correctional institutions to the problems of personal and family nature of convicts (Psychological prevention of escapes of convicts in colonies-settlements 2008, pp. 16-18).
On the basis of the theoretical material we can draw the following conclusions:
1. Predicting escapes, it is necessary to take into account not only criminal, but also social, biological and psychological characteristics of convict's personality.
2. The psychological determinants of convicts' escape activity include: emotional instability, conformity, increased anxiety, aggression, rigidity of thinking, pessimism, suspicion; difficult process of adaptation to the conditions of serving sentences; low level of intelligence; presence of negative mental states; expressed motivation to evade serving sentences, an irresistible desire to be free, the desire to protect themselves from physical or psychological impact; active illegal activities in criminal associations.
Methods
One of the promising measures of escapes prevention, in our opinion, is the improvement of psychodiagnostic tools that predict convicts' escapes. Speaking about the creation of psychodiagnostic tools to identify persons prone to escape from the institutions of the penal system of Russia, it is necessary to raise the issue of currently existing strategies for creating test methods.
According to A. G. Shmelev (2013, p. 126) there are three main strategies:
1) theoretical and deductive strategy "from scales to questions";
2) empirical and inductive strategy "from questions to scales";
3) pragmatic strategy "from quota grades to scales".
The first strategy of tests creating is based on the initially given theoretical construct describing the psychological phenomenon. This phenomenon is decomposed into structural components corresponding to the test scales. Then the stimulus material describing the behavioral manifestations inherent in the theoretical construct is selected. The keys to the tasks are created during the work on the tasks-questions. In accordance with this strategy, the majority of domestic personality questionnaires are compiled, as well as the majority of knowledge tests and intellectual tests are designed. However, in relation to personality questionnaires, this strategy does not have high predictive value, because in relation to the prediction of human behavior, which is a complex multifactorial system, it is often almost impossible to build an adequate comprehensive theoretical model.
The second test creation strategy is empirical and inductive. According to A. G. Shmelev, it is "less understandable and natural for common sense" and is realized on the way "from questions to scales". Psychologists, operating with some "bank of judgments", which can be formed in a variety of ways (in conversations with subjects, analysis of medical reference books, patient complaints, statements on
forums on the Internet, etc.), offer them to a wide range of respondents for answers, and then using the methods of mathematical statistics, provide empirical and statistical grouping of these judgments on the scales. It is often impossible to understand the laws of grouping these judgments on scales. In accordance with this strategy, a test-questionnaire of R. Cattell "Sixteen personality factor questionnaire" (16PF) was created. In contrast to the questionnaires created in accordance with the theoretical and deductive strategy, factor scales in it were secondary to the "bank of questions".
A slightly different path, but also developed using the methods of mathematical statistics, was chosen by S. Hathaway and J. McKinley in creation of the famous test-questionnaire "Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory" (MMPI). The bank of judgments, formed on the basis of complaints of patients, descriptions of symptoms of these or those mental diseases, was grouped on scales with the use of contrast group method. The scales corresponding to a particular mental illness included questions that well differentiated mentally ill people from healthy ones (Burlachuk, L. F. 2008, pp. 248-253).
The second model of test methods can be realized through exploratory approach, in which scale methods are constructed by using external criteria (based on it using methods of mathematical statistics models of subjects differentiation are created). An important advantage of this approach is the possibility of its application to form synthetic models that give a higher accuracy of the prediction. A model created on the basis of an external criterion will always take into account the complex relationship between latent variables, and (that is very important) both internal and external. The question of the nature of these relationships can be left for later theoretical reflection by those who are primarily engaged in solving such problems.
The third strategy of tests creating is pragmatic, used mainly to solve certain management tasks and, unlike academic tests,
begins with organizational goals and has its own specific features. Thus, from the point of view of predictive validity, it is more effective, in our opinion, to use the second strategy of test creating.
Regarding the grouping of the bank of test tasks for diagnostics of convicts' escape propensity, it would be possible to go the way of using materials of those scientific studies that are available in the scientific works of domestic scientists, and on the basis of a theoretical construct describing a profile of a convict prone to escape, to create test tasks for each of the scales describing the profile. However, we consider this way to be insufficiently effective, firstly, due to the low predictive value of personal questionnaires created on the basis of theoretical and deductive strategy, and secondly, due to the fact that the creation of test tasks "from scratch" requires a long time for I-tem analysis (mathematical and statistical analysis of the test items). For this reason, we have chosen a strategy for scales formation based on the most common techniques in the psychologists practice of penitentiary institutions, which test tasks meet psychometric requirements.
Results
Data from 69 regions of the Russian Federation in the form of databases of the multifunctional psychodiagnostic system "Psychometric Expert" with information on convicts, who escaped from prison, indicating the date of the escape and the psychodiagnostic work which was carried out with them, was requested to create scales for escapes predicting from places of detention. If in the region there were no escapes, the answer was that escapes for the last few years were not recorded (Kostroma region, the Chechen Republic, Lipetsk region). As a result, an experimental data base of 242 convicts was obtained and subsequently further processed. For each examination, during which any diagnostic work was carried out, a form with information on the number of days before the precedent was created in the psychodiagnostic system "Psychometric Expert", indicating the methods that were used during the test. Figure 1 shows an example of filling out a form on the escape date, as well as a form for recording information about the precedent in a particular survey.
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Figure 1. Examples of filling out forms with information about the fact of escape
A control group of convicts (1,725 people) who are not on preventive record in correctional institutions, as well as who did not allow violations of the established order of punishment serving during their stay in prisons, was formed.
The analysis of the obtained database of psychodiagnostic data showed that the following methods are most often used in the practice of penitentiary psychologists: "Suicide Risk Questionnaire" (SRQ) (A. G. Shmelev, I. Yu. Belyakova); "Color test" (M. Luscher) and "Color Selection Method" (L. N. Sobchik); "Methods of character accentuations research" (G. Smishek, K. Leongard), "Abbreviated multifactorial questionnaire for personality research" (V. P. Zaytsev), "Sixteen personality factor questionnaire" (R. Cattell), "Comprehensive study of personality of a convict" - CSPC (E. A. Chebalova), "Assessment of the level of volitional self-control (VSC)" (E. V. Eydman, A. G. Zverkov), "The test of eight drives" (L. Szondi) and "The method of portrait elections" (L. N. Sobchik). To analyze psychological
Thus, the structural analysis allowed us to reveal those features which are the most significant in regulation of convicts' behavior and activity, and also play the leading role in subject's adaptation to the environment.
Due to the fact that analyzing the method of "Abbreviated multifactorial questionnaire for personality research" - Mini-mult (V. P. Zaitsev) not absolute values of each scale are interpreted; the ratio of scales in the profile for analyzing the differences in the group of convicts, who
characteristics of convicts who committed escapes, and for further scales creation for escapes prediction from penitentiary institutions, we have chosen three main methods: "Methods of character accentuations research" (G. Smishek, K. Leongard); "Comprehensive study of personality of a convict" - CSPC (E. A. Chebalova) u "Abbreviated multifactorial questionnaire for personality research" - Mini-mult (V. P. Zaytsev), the most suitable on psychometric indicators (table 1) (Fetiskin, N. P., Kozlov, V. V. & Manuylov, G. M. 2002,).
Processing the results, we compared the main and control groups using the Student's t-test, and separately for each group we used structural analysis (method of correlation Pleiades) on the test results, which allowed to allocate the degree of measured parameters (scales) integration in personal structure, measured by the number of significant correlations. The highest rating of a trait in the list, obtained as a result of structural analysis, means the highest degree of its influence on all other characteristics of a personality.
Table 1
escaped, and convicts in the control group, we have undertaken an analysis of the frequency of each of the scales occurrence in the profile peaks (table 2).
Thus, Hy (hysteria) and Ma (hypomania) scales showed the highest frequency of occurrence among the profile peaks in the group of convicts who escaped. In the control group of convicts, peaks of Ma (hypomania) and Pd (psychopathy) scales are more common.
Methods Test group Control group
SRQ 163 449
LQscher 107 105
Smishek 39 555
Mini-mult 62 138
16 PF C 38 172
CSPC 28 150
VSC 52 55
Szondi 34 45
Consideration of the structure of basic personality traits by Mini-mult method shows that the basic qualities in personality structure of escaped convicts, and change of which can lead to a shift in many of its parameters, are Pd (psychopathy), Hy (hysteria), Pt (paranoia), Ma (hypomania) and D (depression). At the same time, psychopathy and hysteria have the
Thus, summing up the results of two types of Mini-mult analysis, it can be assumed that the most significant factor in the personality structure of convicts committed escapes should be considered hysteria, and for convicts in the control group it is hypomania. In general, convicts in the control group have a more upbeat mood background than escaped convicts.
The presence of such features as increased anxiety, described by various authors, was not
greatest weight. It should be noted that the high rating of psychopathy and hysteria with a low rating of Sc (schizoid) and Pt (psychasthenia) indicate aggressiveness and conflictness of this category of persons, their desire to express and oppose themselves to others. At the same time, Ma (hypomania) is the main basic quality of convicts in the control group (table 3).
revealed. In addition, according to the results of surveys, it is not a significant component of the personality structure. At the same time, psychopathy, which entails emotional instability, occupies the most significant place in the overall personality structure of escaped convicts.
The survey using of "Comprehensive study of personality of a convict" - CSPC" (E. A. Chebalova) method showed statistically significant differences between escaped
Table 2
Escaped convicts Convicts of the control group
Scale name Percent occurrence of peaks by scales Scale name Percent occurrence of peaks by scales
Hypochondria (Hs) 9 Hypochondria (Hs) 11
Depression (D) 17 Depression (D) 19
Hysteria (Hy) 30 Hysteria (Hy) 18
Psychopathy (Pd) 20 Psychopathy (Pd) 32
Paranoia (Pa) 21 Paranoia (Pa) 16
Psychasthenia (Pt) 14 Psychasthenia (Pt) 19
Schizoid (Sc) 13 Schizoid (Sc) 13
Hypomania (Ma) 25 Hypomania (Ma) 32
Table 3
Basic personality traits of escaped convicts Number Basic personality traits of convicts in the control group Number
Psychopathy(Pd) 33 Hypomania (Ma) 20
Hysteria (Hy) 27 Psychopathy (Pd) 18
Paranoia (Pa) 23 Depression (D) 12
Hypomania (Ma) 21 Paranoia (Pa) 11
Depression (D) 20 Hysteria (Hy) 9
Hypochondria (Hs) 12 Hypochondria (Hs) 8
Schizoid (Sc) 12 Psychasthenia (Pt) 4
Psychasthenia (Pt) 11 Schizoid (Sc) 4
secondly, the most important basic qualities in the personality structure of escaped prisoners are: AT (aggressive tendencies), I (impulsivity), Mac (machiavellianism), HC (hedonic concepts), AA (autoaggression) and A (alienation), among the convicts of the control group - ACS (adoption of criminal subculture) and AT (aggressive tendencies) (table 5).
Low rating ACS (adoption of criminal subculture) and SDR (target on socially desirable responses) among escaped convicts does not mean that this category does not share values of criminal subculture, but suggests that behavior regulation of the internal affective determinants is much more important. This is also confirmed by high number of AT (aggressive tendencies), I (impulsivity) and HC (hedonic concepts) (table 5).
Table 4
Scales' names Average values according to the method Average values according to the method for convicts of the control group Student's t-test P value for T
for escaped convicts
Anxiety (An) 5.054 4.529 1.013 0.156591
Alienation (A) 9.518 8.022 2.11 0.018568
Rigidity (R) 9.482 8.265 1.711 0.044981
Impulsivity (I) 9.25 7.199 2.855 0.002577
Vulnerability 8.768 8.147 0.893 0.186896
in interpersonal contacts (VIC)
Ego power (EP) 8.304 8.941 1.355 0.089072
Tendency 6.893 6 1.737 0.042639
to overcome norms
and rules (ONR)
Tendency to lie (TL) 8.161 7.64 0.675 0.250712
Aggressive 4.411 3.228 2.658 0.004521
tendencies ^T)
Autoaggression (AA) 3.982 2.831 2.661 0.004487
Hedonic 6.446 6.706 0.453 0.325645
concepts (HC)
Inclination to risk (IR) 9.768 8.382 2.332 0.010762
Machiavellianism 6.839 6.64 0.419 0.337963
(Mac)
Adoption of criminal 7.625 6.434 1.784 0.038623
subculture (ACS)
convicts and convicts from other groups on the scales: A (alienation and social exclusion), R (rigidity), I (impulsivity), ONR (tendency to overcome norms and rules), AT (aggressive tendencies), AA (autoaggression), IR (inclination to risk), ACS (adoption of criminal subculture). At the same time, the level of all these indicators among escaped convicts is higher than among other convicts. This severity level of these indicators among escaped convicts is a symptom complex, predisposing them to greater criminalization in comparison with the convicts in the control group (table 4).
Consideration of the structure of basic personality traits according to CSPC method shows the following: first, according to the results of this method a convicted person of both groups has a fairly coherent structure;
Table 5
Basic personality traits of escaped convicts Number Basic personality traits of convicts in the control group Number
Aggressive tendencies (AT) 55 Adoption of criminal subculture (ACS) 56
Impulsivity (I) 55 Inclination to risk (IR) 51
Machiavellianism (Mac) 52 Aggressive tendencies (AT) 44
Hedonic concepts (HC) 52 Target on socially desirable responses (SDR) 43
Autoaggression (AA) 52 Random response control (RRC) 41
Alienation (A) 50 Tendency to overcome norms and rules (ONR) 41
Tendency to lie (TL) 49 Machiavellianism (Mac) 40
Rigidity (R) 47 Autoaggression (AA) 40
Inclination to risk (IR) 46 Anxiety (An) 39
Anxiety (An) 40 Vulnerability in interpersonal contacts (VIC) 35
Tendency to overcome norms and rules (ONR) 40 Tendency to lie (TL) 34
Vulnerability in interpersonal contacts (VIC) 39 Alienation (A) 32
Ego power (EP) 36 Rigidity (R) 31
Random response control (RRC) 32 Hedonic concepts (HC) 25
Adoption of criminal subculture (ACS) 28 Ego power (EP) 24
Target on socially desirable responses (SDR) 25 Impulsivity (I) 12
Table 6
Scales' names Average values according to the method for escaped convicts Average values according to the method for convicts of the control group Student's t-test P value for T
Hyperactivity (Hyp) 14.05 15.05 1.727 0.042769
Stucking (St) 12.96 13.7 1.671 0.04809
Pedantry (Ped) 13.26 13.53 0.543 0.293738
Emotiveness (Em) 13.45 14.29 1.439 0.075774
Anxiety (An) 9.079 8.024 1.947 0.026385
Cyclothymia (Cyc) 13.5 13.36 0.249 0.401983
Excitability (Ex) 12.16 11.46 1.243 0.107583
Dysthymia (Dys) 11.55 11.49 0.128 0.449187
Demonstrativeness (Dem) 11.91 12.94 2.267 0.012192
Exultation (Ex) 12.84 15.48 4.018 0.00004
A comparative analysis of the test data on the above methods showed some differences in the results of Mini-mult and Smishek methods on such parameters as anxiety, stucking, demonstrativeness and exaltation. This fact can be explained, firstly, by absence of lies scales in the method of Smishek and impossibility of results verification, secondly, by different time periods, during which convicts were testing; thirdly, by different meaning of the listed scales; fourthly, by a strong exposure to the results of Smishek method on mood factor
Thus, the results of database analysis of escaped convicts, allow us to draw the following conclusions:
1. Among individual typological features that are more common for escaped convicts, we can distinguish: hysteria, which in conjunction with psychopathy has the great importance in personality structure of this category of convicts.
2. Escaped convicts have a more pronounced symptom complex predisposing to criminalization or indicating its presence: alienation and social disadaptation, rigidity, impulsivity, a tendency to overcome norms and rules, aggression, autoaggression, a tendency to risk, adoption of criminal subculture.
3. The difference in the results of psychodiagnostic techniques is explained by:
- absence of a single plan for testing (the database formed after escapes was analyzed;
due to the fact that only from 4 to 12 issues work on each scale. Thus, we prefer to rely more on the results of Mini-mult methodology, which has tools to assess the validity. Consideration of the structure of basic personality traits by Smishek method shows that the main personality traits of escaped convicts, on which the structure of personality most depends, are cyclothymia, pedantry, hyperactivity and emotiveness. Convicts of the control group have the main qualities in the personality structure; these are dysthymia and pedantry (table 7).
Table 7
testing on all three methods before escapes was not synchronous);
- influence of social desirability factor on methods results, as well as limited ability of convicts to objective self-assessment;
- low retest reliability of described techniques (especially of Mini-mult and Smishek methods), which is a consequence of a small number of stimulus working on each scale.
As part of convicts escapes prevention, the main task of a psychologist in penitentiary institutions is to predict their behavior based on the results of psychodiagnostics. Predicting escapes, two values are described: first, the period for which the prediction is made (for 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, etc.), and secondly, the probability of an event occurring during the specified period. To solve the problem of creating prediction scales, we used an
Basic personality traits of escaped convicts Number
Cyclothymia (Cyc) 33
Pedantry (Ped) 30
Hyperactivity (Hyp) 29
Emotiveness (Em) 28
Demonstrativeness (Dem) 25
Anxiety (An) 25
Stucking (St) 23
Dysthymia (Dys) 22
Exultation (Ex) 20
Excitability (Ex) 19
Basic personality traits of convicts in the control group Number
Dysthymia (Dys) 33
Pedantry (Ped) 30
Cyclothymia (Cyc) 26
Emotiveness (Em) 26
Stucking (St) 25
Exultation (Ex) 19
Demonstrativeness (Dem) 19
Excitability (Ex) 18
Hyperactivity (Hyp) 14
Anxiety (An) 12
empirical and inductive strategy for creating tests, namely discriminant analysis, which is one of the methods for solving classification problems with training. In case of several classes and a certain set of objects, which are known to belong to any class, with the help of this type of analysis, it is possible to build a formula that can give the output probability of referring the existing object to a certain class.
In our study we have two classes of objects:
1) convicts of the control group who are well-reputed during serving of their sentences in places of imprisonment;
2) convicts of the experimental group who escaped from the custody in institutions of the penal system of Russia.
Thus, for each of the convicts of our sample, we have information about their belonging to one of the classes and a set of parameters (in this case, the answers to the test questions), which will be used as independent variables in prediction formulas.
The number of classes allocated during the discriminant analysis can be increased if the time factor is introduced as the selection criteria. Since additional information about convicts in the database "Psychometric Expert" contains time data of the escape, and, therefore, it is possible to determine the time period between the conducted psychodiagnostic examination and the date of the escape. For a more accurate prediction, the group of convicts can be divided
into subgroups depending on duration of this period between these events (diagnosis -escape). For example, it is possible to distinguish one group, which includes convicts, tests for which were carried out less than six months before the escape, and another - for six months-a year before the escape.
Thus, the result of discriminant analysis will be an algorithm (discrimination formula), showing the probability of assigning a person (according to the results of diagnostics) to a certain class (figure 2).
For example, based on the results of Smishek method, it is necessary to decide to which sample of convicts the result is closest. Discriminant analysis gives the percentage of results similarity with the results of convicts in groups 1, 2 and 3. If the degree of similarity of the result with group 3 is 60%, it means that the person is closest to this group of people in their answers to the questions of the technique, and his condition is similar to the state of people before the escape (less than six months). Therefore, there is a statistically significant probability that a person is in a state of readiness to escape.
In order to create scales for convicts escapes prediction, we have chosen the methods of Smishek, Mini-mult and CSPC, because their questions have the highest discriminant properties, that is, they most effectively divide people by the degree of qualities severity.
Results of Smishek method
Group 2 Escaped convicts (diagnostics was carried out a year before the escape) 20%
Group 3 Escaped convicts (diagnostics was carried out six months before the escape) 60%
Figure 2. The example of a decision to classify a person to a certain class in a discriminant analysis
Discussion
As a result of the work with the database of psychodiagnostic data, two scales were added to the Smishek method: Escape 365 and Escape 90, which show the probability of escape within a year and within three months (that is, the number indicates the prediction period in days).
In the Mini-mult method two scales were added: Escape 365 and Escape 180, which show the probability of escape within a year and within six months.
The stimulus material of these methods "Methods of character accentuations research" -Smishek (G. Smishek, K. Leongard); "Comprehensive study of personality of a convict" - CSPC (E. A. Chebalova) and "Abbreviated multifactorial questionnaire for personality research" - Mini-mult (V. P. Zaytsev) is presented in the psychodiagnostic system "Psychometric Expert" both in the old and in the updated version. Scales of escapes prediction of convicts from correctional institutions and places of detention are presented in the version "Psychometric Expert" 8.7.0 and higher. To work with them, you need to update the program "Psychometric Expert" to version 8.7.0
In the CSPC method one scale was added: Escape 540, which shows the probability of escape within 1 year 6 months after diagnostics.
Table 8 shows the main characteristics of prediction models based on convicts' answers to the questions of these methods. All the coefficients are statistically significant, which indicates a high separating ability of the models, that is, an ability to classify the result of a convicted person as prone to escape for a specified period with an accuracy of 95-98%.
Table 8
or higher, where the mechanism for values calculating of scales by discriminant formulas is implemented, as well as a special representation of the result in percentages on scales of methods Smishek, Mini-mult u CSPC.
In conclusion, it can be summarized that escape prediction scales created on the basis of the empirical and inductive strategy make it possible to identify persons prone to escape from institutions of the penal system.
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Official website of the FPS of Russia, viewed 25 August 2018, http://fsin.su/statistics/ (accessed date: 25. 08. 2018).
Indicators Smishek Mini-mult CSPC
Quality of the prediction 97% 95% 98%
Test group 39 people 62 people 28 people
Control group 555 people 138 people 150 people
Model accuracy metrics
Wilks' Lambda: 0.66 (p<0.0075*) 0.45 (p<0.0001*) 0.29 (p<0.0001*)
Pillai's Test: 0.37 (p<0.0075*) 0.65 (p<0.0001*) 0.71 (p<0.0001*)
Hotelling-Lawley: 0.49 (p<0.0076*) 0.98 (p<0.0001*) 2.42 (p<0.0001*)
Roy's Max Root: 0.26 (p<0.0038*) 0.59 (p<0.0001*) 2.42 (p<0.0001*)
Used stimulus 88 stimulus 40 stimulus 60 stimulus
Applied method of discriminant analysis Quadratic, with correction coefficients for regularization Labda = 0.3 Gamma = 0 Quadratic, with correction coefficients for regularization Labda = 0.3 Gamma = 0 Quadratic, with correction coefficients for regularization Labda = 0.3 Gamma = 0
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